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Opinion: Why future generations need protection from today's selfish voters and politicians
By Infometrics economist Geoff Simmons The festive season is a time for family and reflection. After a few drinks on Christmas Day, this combination got some of my family musing about future generations. First we started talking about New Zealand's flaccid emissions trading scheme, the lack of progress at Copenhagen, and finally about living in a world of more than 2 degree temperature rises. The impacts on New Zealand may be manageable, but how might we deal with the global fallout, possibly including refugees from a drought stricken Australia? At the next gap in the conversation my niece Sufia (aged eight), piped up. "I don't want to die," she said. Sufia is precocious and bright, but usually tends to err in the direction of surreal comedy rather than dead-pan heartfelt pleas.
The adults around the table exchanged nervous glances. We had all forgotten she was there, just like our leaders had overlooked the future generations at Copenhagen. We spent the next ten minutes assuring her that everything would all be alright and the future is rosy. And who knows, it might well be, but no thanks to us. For over a decade now we have done policy flip-flops on carbon taxes and emissions trading, while our carbon emissions rose by almost a quarter between 1990 and 2007. Yet no policy maker is talking about seriously tackling climate change or any other long term problems, such as NZ Super or climbing health costs. We believe that our kids will take care of us. This has happened until now, as the next generation has always been richer than the last. But it is always possible that things may not be better for our children. Buy now and pay later. It is natural to us that a dollar now is worth more than a dollar tomorrow. Economists call this preference a "discount rate". How much are you willing to pay to borrow so you can have a dollar now? How much are you willing to receive if you bank your money until tomorrow? Your answers to these questions give some basic idea of your personal discount rate "“ whether you want it all right now (a high discount rate), or are happy to delay gratification until tomorrow (a low discount rate). The trouble is that most evidence shows we don't have the nice predictable discount rates that economists would like us to have. We tend to make pretty informed decisions about things that will affect us in the next few years. After that things get hazy, so we just wave our hands and figure "She'll be right". People also dislike losing something they already have more than they like getting given something new "“ even if the two things are of the same value. So it is really hard to take things off people, because we consider everything we have now as our "right". Witness the current debate on taxing property, for example. Sure, we'll take the drop in income tax but a new tax? No way. When you ask people what life they want for their kids, most reply that they want their kids to have the same opportunities as they did. If this is really the case, then we need to hand over to our children at least the same stock of assets we have now. This includes natural assets as well as houses and machines. If we run down one asset (like nature) we need to make very sure we are creating an even better asset in its place. The trouble with our high discount rates is we tend to run down our assets for short term gain. This mentality is at the root of our national debt problem, and applies to climate change policy also. So how can we fix this problem? Perhaps we can't "“ it might be human nature. But surely our short-term political system doesn't help matters. We need the ability to turf out governments, but a three-year electoral cycle raises the discount rate of politicians, so they rarely act in our long-term interests. How we measure "˜progress' also doesn't help "“ we need a way of keeping track of our full stock of national assets in addition to our income. Maybe we need some independent voices that don't have to be popular to be heard. There are examples of this overseas. Australia has the Productivity Commission , which can review government policy. Britain has the House of Lords - an anachronism but full of very informed people nonetheless. Not that these countries have all the answers, because both of these institutions struggle to influence the person in the street. What is clear that we need someone to speak out in the interest of Sufia's generation. Otherwise she may not inherit the land that we want to leave her. ________________ * Infometrics is an economic information and forecasting company based in Wellington. To find out more, see its website here. This piece first appeared in the Dominion Post.
27 Comments
its hard to take AGW
its hard to take AGW and Copenhagen gabfest scaremongering seriously, when the IPCC boss is fighting to keep his job and IPCC reports are outed as half baked opinion peices by vested interests,isnt it ?
Yes , well said .
Yes , well said . Science and the environment are being lost in a reiligious fervour of the supporters . And many of the righteous ones ( i.e. Al Gore ) stand to make an absolute fortune out of us , the regular folk , living our quiet lives .
<i>Maybe we need some independent
Maybe we need some independent voices that don't have to be popular to be heard.
Oh, right you are then.
If you had been reading on the real science, you would be noting just how quickly the AGW priests at the IPCC are having to concede their argument is breaking up under them: unlike the Earth's ice shelf, which is not even receding.
Yes there is climate change, there always has been, no, there is no AGW that we have to worry or tax ourselves to starvation over. [Leighton Smith had a great shot at the warmists just after 11.00am on ZB this morning, I recommend you listen via that stations 'listen to the last week' function.] Sufia will be fine: the media and no doubt her idiot teachers just need to stop scaring her with tales of an Armageddon that is never going to happen.
Did you see the opening floor show at Copenhagen? Children crying because they've been scared out of their wits by clueless adults who should know better. Copenhagen was a disgrace in conception, but at least had the grace to be an utter failure, which was a victory for common sense.
So how can we fix this problem?
Overthrow government, implement a constitution enshrining the property rights of individuals, including to their own damned incomes, institute a minarchist government whose sole mandate is to protect the individual from the initiation of force and fraud: that is to protect freedom, rather than putting up with governments being the greatest obstacle to it.
Otherwise she may not inherit the land that we want to leave her.
Are I see the problem: you are working under the belief we still have rights to private property in New Zealand.
What's that noise? Oh yes, a bunch of utilitarians banging away again.
I've been away from here for a couple of months, and the place is falling apart Bernard. And the new editing function doesn't take a poster back to their post.
Good to have you back
Good to have you back , Mark . Been at it 24/7 to keep this lot honest . But sadly , in my battle of wits with them , I forgot that I am un-armed !
Agree , that the edit function has gone troppo .
I agree that a the
I agree that a the hype and fervour around global warming is distorting the truth, but i don't think that we need to stop encouraging clean tech because of that.
As they say, the stone age didn't finish because they ran out of stones. The move to clean tech should be made because we can do better than hydrocarbons.
There are vested interests on both sides of the argument, but no one in their right mind would argue that pollution of the earth is something we should accept without question.
What makes you think, <b>Greg</b>,
What makes you think, Greg, that just because someone sees AGW and Gore for the frauds they are - with AGW being used to justify taxation and Big Government, correction, even Bigger Government - that the same person is against clean tech or for pollution?
I am for clean tech developed in a free market, and would buy it it is fulfils my needs.
I don't like pollution. Who does?
AGW is a fraud, and every tax and regulation raised in its name is theft and fraud.
The author wasn't speaking simply
The author wasn't speaking simply to the climate change issue - but rather to the broader issue of running down the assets (both built and natural) more generally.
So, AGW skeptics - you are right - another +/- 2 degrees is a indeed mute point once the fish in the oceans are gone, the bees, birds and butterflys are reduced in number and the freshwater supplies run dry.
AGW is a fraud. Where
AGW is a fraud. Where do I start? I think the truth is seeping through to the ignorant and misinformed masses. There has been some embarrassing poll results that have been swept under the carpet. I don't know when John Key's government is going to re-locate its spine on this issue like the Liberals in Aussie and the Republicans in the USA.
But on resources and environmentalism generally, I regard THE definitive intellectual-philosophical essay as:
http://mises.org/story/661
"Environmentalism Refuted" by George Reisman.
I tell you, this essay is an eye-opener; the man is an intellectual Titan.
Here is the best short summary I can put together:
We have actually barely begun to prospect the entire surface of the earth, and under the sea bed, for all known resources.
As mankind becomes more technically advanced, we discover uses for more and more resources. Many of the resources we use most today, we did not use at all until we discovered how to use them.
There is no reason to believe that we have come to an end of that process. That is, we will yet discover resources that give us even more power over our well-being than the resources we currently make use of.
The more capital accumulated by mankind, the more access we get to resources. We can drill deeper, extract elements more efficiently, access the resources under the sea bed, and so on.
Furthermore, that accumulation of capital underlies the research and technological progress that bring ever more resources within our purvey.
Apart from what has been blasted into space, every molecule in every substance "used" by man, is still here and will be able to be re-used one day; a lot of it has merely been re-ordered to man's advantage meanwhile. Every carbon molecule that has been burnt to extract energy, returns to the biosystem after a relatively short time in the atmosphere, and will be able to be accessed again for the purpose of energy, by our descendants at some time in the future.
@ Mr Hubbard There are
@ Mr Hubbard
There are people who think that being mindful of ecological damage is something to be evaluated in terms of their own personal economic situation, and others who would quite happily forgo any societal progress if it causes any damage whatsoever, with a bell curve mapping roughly how many people believe in each side.
Personally i don't believe that Mr Gore is any more despicable than Mr Exxon and vice versa and that they both have evidence to back their positions and that both positions are going to cost Mr AverageJoe in the long run.
I can't help thinking though, that we can be brave and take a punt on moving forward (Mr Gore) or we can timidly try to hold on to what we have now at the risk of it all falling down around our ears. I don't expect either road to be perfect but i'd rather have a crack at a better world rather than stick with this one out of fear.
Geoff - I can assure
Geoff - I can assure you that the House of Lords in the UK is a useless body.
Firstly, isn't it sad and
Firstly, isn't it sad and despicable that children have been filled with AGW propaganda in school and frightened. Its also a pity that sincere and intelligent environmentalists have been sidetracked into the AGW dogma. Surely there are more important and pressing issues facing our world than becoming hysterical about a small degree of temperature change. How about concentrating on reducing pollution, growing food crops instead of biofuel crops and clean accessible water for the world's people for a start?
It is very sad that "Science" has been bought by economic and political interests. It has been now revealed that world temperature data has been manipulated and destroyed , papers of peers have been suppressed, pressure has been brought to bear at editorial level in scientific magazines not to print certain views.
According to the IPCC own now allegedly exaggerated figures, the warming effect of AGW 0 .43F. in 10 years This is based on there being 388 ppmv CO2. at present and we are adding 2ppmv a year. After 10 years there would be 408 ppmv.
If all the cuts that the Copenhagen Accord would like to be implemented were implemented (resulting ineffectively shutting down 1/3 of Western economies) then CO2 concentration would increase not by 20ppmv (if we did nothing) but by 18.5ppmv..resulting in a warming forestalled of 0.04 F.
Read, investigate and seek answers for yourselves.
Do we hear that the Great Barrier Reef has recovered? No
Do we hear that the threatened extinction of species is not happening? NO
Do we hear that the Himalayan Glaciers are behaving normally ?NO
Do we hear that ice thickness is increasing? NO
The mainstream media have been complicit in publishing any wild claim of doom and destruction that has been made. At the same time they have ignored or vilified voices of reason, eminent scientists and other thinkers who have another view.
The father of the scientific method in 11 century Iraq, wrote " the seeker after truth does not place his trust in any mere consensus, however broad and however venerable.
Instead, he subjects what he has learned of it to his hard-won scientific knowledge, and to measurement, scrutiny and verification... the road to truth is long and hard but that is the road we must follow.
Something similar here: http://publicaddress.net/default,speaker
Something similar here: http://publicaddress.net/default,speaker,247.sm
"With great embarrassment the National
"With great embarrassment the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) in New Zealand has been forced to release it's raw temperature data, but they have no record of why and when any adjustments were made to this data.(dog ate my homework excuse?) Yet again, it appears climate scientists are re-writing the temperature history of the world.
The story was reported yesterday by Scoop: Sci-Tech Independent News under the heading, "˜NIWA CAUGHT WITH PANTS DOWN.' "˜Scoop' explains that because New Zealand's climate data adjustments cannot be verified (peer-reviewed) they are worthless.
The story goes:
The National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) has been urged by the New Zealand Climate Science Coalition (NZCSC) to abandon all of its in-house adjustments to temperature records. This follows an admission by NIWA that it no longer holds the records that would support its in-house manipulation of official temperature readings."
So. lets see temperatures did not rise in the raw data but did in the "adjusted" data.
The adjusted data was submitted to the IPCC as part of the world "adjusted data" from other sources who also "lost" raw data or refused to reveal it.
Is this the solid. settled, peer reviewed science on which forms the basis of the scaremongering and huge tax scam on the peoples of the world?
Never mind the little changes to your property tax, folks, wait till the AGW taxes start kicking in.
prosperpink, do you have the
prosperpink, do you have the Scoop link for that handy?
(I always find it hard to find articles on that site.)
Sorry, Mark don't know how
Sorry, Mark don't know how to do a link. Go to climategate.com. I came across the article there, 3rd article down.
They have a link to Scoop.
prosperopink. you say Read, investigate
prosperopink. you say
Read, investigate and seek answers for yourselves.
Do we hear that the Great Barrier Reef has recovered? No
Do we hear that the threatened extinction of species is not happening? NO
Do we hear that the Himalayan Glaciers are behaving normally ?NO
Do we hear that ice thickness is increasing? NO
Are you able to back that up with some sources/references please?
Cheers Prosperopink.
Cheers Prosperopink.
PPP...when you have gone to
PPP...when you have gone to the site you want to link..right click on the address string at the top of your screen. It will begin with http://.....you will get a window in which you can click 'copy'. Now tear off back to this site and write your guff..at any point you can right click again ...
and select 'paste' when the window opens.
Try it out.
cheers.
Wally, or highlight the http://
Wally,
or highlight the http:// link
CTRL-C key combo to copy
CTRL-V key combo to paste
(for those who prefer keyboards to mice)
Jack, you must search for
Jack, you must search for yourself. This is my point. Anyone with access to the internet can research these things, weigh them up and make their own judgements. I don't play the "back that up with peer reviewed science" game anymore because many climate scientists have completely discredited themselves, their scientific methods and their peers.
You have to find the articles that the MSM won't print. (well they are starting to now since climategate broke)
In case you need a few pointers
First type up" Great Barrier Reef recovering" on Google .
On my computer the first thing that comes up is an article in the Guardian on the recovery of the reef
www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/apr/22/coral-barrier-reef-australia
I first became aware of the species extinction matter on a site called
www.wattsupwiththat.com
a site search should come up with
2010/01/04 where-are-the-corpses
this is a very interesting statistical paper on actual extinctions in the last century or so.
While you are on wattsupwiththat have a look at the article about how pacific atolls can't sink because they "float" ..fascinating.
Then just do the same for the other topics. Happy research Jack!
Thanks Gibber and Wally...I've got
Thanks Gibber and Wally...I've got a Mac but I'll try what you suggest.
I've just sent poor Jack to do his own research, without proper links. Mind you thats how you stumble across interesting stuff!
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/SC1002/S00004.htm NIWA
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/SC1002/S00004.htm
NIWA
Geoff Simmons of Infometrics says
Geoff Simmons of Infometrics says
''We need the ability to turf out governments, but a three-year electoral cycle raises the discount rate of politicians, so they rarely act in our long-term interests.''
Many would agree. On behalf of the taxpayer, how can a mere 120 politicians keep track off the spending of many thousands of bureaucrats? It is not possible.
Each department needs scrutiny at all levels even to the lowest spending level.
So create mini audit ''parliaments'' of locally elected volunteer taxpayer citizens guided by a chartered accountant perhaps and economic principles courtesy of NZIER Kerry MacDonald to stymie [veto] unwanted departmental spending. Then the spending goes down. Then the taxpayer rules. As it should be.
I can't find anything quickly
I can't find anything quickly with that headline, but I did find this:
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/SC1002/S00004.htm
a PRESS RELEASE (which reads as you suggest above) put out by the New Zealand Climate Science Coalition. Was that the NEWS article to which you were referring?
Here's the article on Climategate:
Here's the article on Climategate:
http://www.climategate.com/now-kiwigate-new-zealand-climatologists-destr...
But it is only one of many pieces coming out now, showing the IPCC and the priests supplying it, utterly discredited. Even some of the mainstream media are finally taking note: BBC, and several of the bigger news services out of the US all becoming much more critical, and actually looking dispassionately at the issue, showing up the lies we've been fed as peer reviewed science, at last.
And yet, given this, what a pity the chumps who rule over us in the Hive have just signed us up to Copenhagen:
http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/nz-signs-copenhagen-accord-climate-change-1...
That and our ETS: what a sick joke.
Fire the communist Smith. Fire them all. No one in parliament in any of the parties elected present solutions for better life for Kiwis, indeed, they are the main obstacles ...
http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/fpcomment/archive/2009/
http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/fpcomment/archive/2009/05/30/la...
Mark, this is so interesting, how Ken Lay of Enron devised the carbon credit scam.
Environmental businesses seem to have the most to gain from AGW.
Hope my new link skills are working!
What I am finding is
What I am finding is that I simply cannot keep up with the scandals about AGW; and furthermore there does not seem to be any one who can; there are a few good sites that post links to the latest stuff but they soon drop down the page and it is hard to remember them.
The sickening thing is that the alarmist brigade has legions of people paid by the taxpayer to make the argument for the other side; why can't some brave center-right government start a few bureaucratic offices dedicated to "the other side of the argument" and why shoudn't a government be obliged to do this? The Republicans in the USA are about the only people who do anything of the sort. Here and in most other countries the bureaucracies are wall-to-wall big government and one-world-government lefties. When the Left is in government, they support each other; and when some other party is in government, the bureacracies fight it and divert it from its rightful objectives every inch of the way. John Tamihere had this nailed in that "Investigate" interview a few years ago.