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Top 10 at 10: Fed tests stimulus withdrawal; Call for new global currency; UK bank bonus tax; Dilbert
Here are my Top 10 links from around the Internet at 10am. I welcome your additions and comments below or please email your suggestions for Friday's Top 10 at 10 to bernard.hickey@interest.co.nz I'm (shock horror) early today to make sure I can focus on the RBNZ's December quarter Monetary Policy Statement.
1. Pensions in crisis - The World Bank has issued a report pointing to a looming pension crisis in Europe and Central Asia. HT Gertraud via email.
"It is alarming to look at what the Europe and Central Asian (ECA) countries are soon to face as the region continues to age," said IMF Lead Economist Anita Schwarz.
"Future pension system deficits can be threefold than what is currently expected, and are expected to remain at that level for more than 20 years before slightly improving. Policymakers need to use the opportunity of the current crisis to address long-term issues, which could bankrupt pension systems precisely when the numbers of people who need them are growing.
"While the financial crisis has hit pension systems in the ECA region hard, the real crisis is yet to come. Despite the pain countries have endured during the global financial and economic crisis, the impact of this crisis pales in comparison to what the countries are soon to face with the aging demographic transition."
2. Testing, testing - What will happen when the US Federal Reserve starts withdrawing the punchbowl from the party? This week it dip it's little finger in the punchbowl by draining US$180 million from the banking system Reverse Repos, Bloomberg reported. It is essentially testing the system. We'll see what happens when it gets really serious.
The transaction is one of the tools being used for an eventual withdrawal of the central bank's unprecedented monetary stimulus. Fed officials said when the tri-party reverse repo operational readiness program was announced on Nov. 30 that the actions themselves don't represent any change in policy.
Related Topics
3. Cue disgust - Lucian Bebchuk, Alma Cohen, and Holger Spamann from the Harvard Law School's forum on corporate governance and financial regulation have studied bonuses and share sales at Bear Stearns and Lehman Bros from 2000 to 2008. The top executives extracted US$250 million each (not a typo) before they crashed and their focus on short term returns (and the share bonuses and sales that went with those results) was a factor in their crashes.
According to the standard narrative, the meltdown of Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers largely wiped out the wealth of their top executives. Many "“ in the media, academia and the financial sector "“ have used this account to dismiss the view that pay structures caused excessive risk-taking and that reforming such structures is important. That standard narrative, however, turns out to be incorrect.
It is true that the top executives at both banks suffered significant losses on shares they held when their companies collapsed. But our analysis, using data from Securities and Exchange Commission filings, shows the banks' top five executives had cashed out such large amounts since the beginning of this decade that, even after the losses, their net pay-offs during this period were substantially positive.
In 2000-07, the top five executives at Bear and Lehman pocketed cash bonuses exceeding $300m and $150m respectively (adjusted to 2009 dollars). Although the financial results on which bonus payments were based were sharply reversed in 2008, pay arrangements allowed executives to keep past bonuses.
Furthermore, executives regularly took large amounts of money off the table by unloading shares and options. Overall, in 2000-08 the top-five teams at Bear and Lehman cashed out close to $2bn in this way: about $1.1bn at Bear and $850m at Lehman. Indeed, the teams sold more shares during the years preceding the firms' collapse than they held when the music stopped in 2008.
Altogether, equity sales and bonuses over that period provided the top five at the two banks with cash of about $1.4bn and $1bn respectively (an average of almost $250m each).
4. Turning purple and then black - This video of a map of the United States shows how the unemployment changed county by county from the beginning of 2007. It turns purple (7% to 9.9%) and then black (over 10%), spreading like a disease. We love a good chart, but this one from LaToya Egwuekwe is a humdinger.
5. A complete waste of space - Paul Volcker is a canny old codger who should still be the US Federal Reserve Chairman. He rightly points out that all that 'financial innovation' of the last decade was a complete waste of time and the only useful thing done by banks in recent years was to invent the ATM, The Telegraph reported.
The former US Federal Reserve chairman told an audience that included some of the world's most senior financiers that their industry's "single most important" contribution in the last 25 years has been automatic telling machines, which he said had at least proved "useful".
Echoing FSA chairman Lord Turner's comments that banks are "socially useless", Mr Volcker told delegates who had been discussing how to rebuild the financial system to "wake up". He said credit default swaps and collateralised debt obligations had taken the economy "right to the brink of disaster" and added that the economy had grown at "greater rates of speed" during the 1960s without such products.When one stunned audience member suggested that Mr Volcker did not really mean bond markets and securitisations had contributed "nothing at all", he replied: "You can innovate as much as you like, but do it within a structure that doesn't put the whole economy at risk."

6. They're grumpy - North Koreans have not taken kindly to their government taking their money off them. Here's the Wall St Journal's latest report of violence and protest north of the border. The graphic below is useful.
"They've tried to wind back the system, but they're potentially teaching the people that markets can't be controlled," says Shaun Cochran, head of Korea research at CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets, who published a report on North Korea's move.
Pyongyang announced Nov. 30 its decision to issue new currency and limit the amount of old currency that could be exchanged to the equivalent of about $40, based on unofficial exchange rates, a step that essentially scrapped all other private money.
7. "Out of bullets" - Meredith Whitney, who was the banking analyst that predicted last year's implosion, now says on CNBC below the US government doesn't have any bullets left in its arsenal to get the economy going again. Ed Harrison at CreditWritedowns has the story.
8. Now the hangover - Britain's Chancellor Alistair Darling announced a 50% tax on bankers' bonuses overnight, an increase in the VAT back to 17.5% from 15% and an increase in the top tax rate over 150,000 pounds to 50% from 40%, Bloomberg reported. Now that Britain's budget deficit is over 10% and it is being threatened with credit rating downgrades it has to pull that deficit back in. It is choosing tax increases. This will be the challenge for 2010. Will the global economy grow through 2010 when governments and central banks are forced to withdraw their stimulus? Or are we in for a double dip?
Trailing in opinion polls before an election that he must hold by June, Prime Minister Gordon Brown is balancing the need to clamp down on a record peacetime budget deficit while extending support for voters struggling to keep their jobs.
"At this stage in the electoral cycle, the chancellor's weapon of choice is a butter knife rather than an axe," said Alan Downey, head of public sector consulting at KPMG. "Those who were expecting a plan for reducing public expenditure will be disappointed."
9. Replace the US dollar with SDRs - Jeffrey Garten, the Juan Trippe professor of international trade and finance at the Yale School of Management, has called in a FT.com opinion piece for a secret meeting (!) between Christmas and New Year to discuss the creation of a new global reserve currency to replace the US dollar. I get accused of being alarmist and off the planet a lot. Here a Yale professor writes in the FT about what's really going on. This is well worth a read.
The two most significant structural consequences of the recent financial debacle are the massive deficits and debts of the US and the shift of economic power from west to east. There is only one effective way for governments to address the combined impact of both: press for a sea change in currency relationships, especially a permanently and greatly weakened dollar.
The roots of this situation are well known. The American budget deficit of this past fiscal year reached 10 per cent of gross domestic product, the largest since the aftermath of the second world war. Meanwhile, the net external debt of the US nearly tripled last year to $3,500bn and it is projected to increase by nearly $1,000bn every year for the next decade. All this underestimates the problems of a country where unfunded liabilities for baby boomer entitlements are in the stratosphere, infrastructure deterioration is scandalous and many large states are out of money. To close the gaps, taxes would have to be raised to sky-high levels and spending brutally slashed. It would take a miracle if America's political system "“ one rife with vicious partisanship and riddled with well-financed special interests "“ could do either, let alone both.
Washington will therefore have little choice but to take the time-honoured course for big-time debtors: print more dollars, devalue the currency and service debt in ever cheaper greenbacks. In other words, the US will have to camouflage a slow-motion default because politically it is the easiest way out.
10. Totally irrelevant video - Jackie Chan's Top 10 stunts. The last one dislocated his pelvis, burnt all the skin off his hands and electrocuted him. I have a new respect for the man. I winced a lot.


42 Comments
"...One of the main causes
"...One of the main causes of the North Atlantic financial crisis was that central banks in the big North Atlantic economies left interest rates too low for too long after the milder-than-expected recessions that they experienced in the early years of this decade, after the ''tech wreck'' of 2000 and the terrorist attacks of September 2001.
To have kept Australian interest rates at ''emergency levels'' after the most recent emergency had passed would have been to expose Australia to the same risks in the years ahead. It would have been the equivalent of continuing to take paracetamol long after the pain had ceased to persist..." Saul Eslake(syd morn herald)
Begs the question doesn't it....how much damage is Bollard causing by continuing to run a game of porking activity on cheap credit?...go figure
"...Now that Britain’s budget deficit
"...Now that Britain's budget deficit is over 10% and it is being threatened with credit rating downgrades it has to pull that deficit back in. It is choosing tax increases..." which is exactly what English will be forced to do from here on in because Noddyland is up there with the other most indebted poorly run economies. The coming tax increases, starting with gst up to 15% and more to follow, will be on top of price rises for power gas insurance rates charges fees postage etc etc and....yes there's more...imported stuff we need...not the crap we just want...stuff like oil and petrol and spare parts etc etc will all rise in price because stupid Kiwi is set to slide in value...happy days are here again.... blah blah blah...oh and I forgot to mention mortgage rates are rising with no ceiling in sight.
"...print more dollars, devalue the
"...print more dollars, devalue the currency ..." now someone tell me please who might be selling down gold at this time?...when all the arrows point to gold being one of the few safe places to run...I smell something very fishy going on!!!!
Geez Wally : If you
Geez Wally : If you swallow Bernard's breakfast diet of doom & gloom you're gonna be grumpy all day . Grab a bag of gummy bears , and hum to yourself : " Hickey's a journo , bad news sells "............ Smile.!!!.........if for no other reason , than the people nearby will assume that you've just dropped yer guts !!!
Ahhh - Roger - leave
Ahhh - Roger - leave Wally be - he's like a pig in muck this morning!
Sooooo much muck...must be careful
Sooooo much muck...must be careful with the effs here...wakey wakey you lot...tax increases on the way...Bollard about to make a play...and the end is nigh for the USA.
Alternatively , wot I do
Alternatively , wot I do is to pig out on a curry . Then you really can add to global warming . It cheers me no end , as I saunter through the day , to leave in my trail folk who are choking and wheezing on Madras methane , or Balti butane . Hot !!!
" the end is nigh for the USA ", a tadge theatrical methinks . Care that you don't begin to take the " 10 @ 10 " seriously .
Roger, are the Gummy Bears
Roger,
are the Gummy Bears laced with a double dose of happy pills today? I detect a level of exuberance in your posts that hasn't been there before
Natural high of spring .
Natural high of spring . The sap is rising . The glow of previous afternoon , imbibing Kilkenny draught , and watching sweet lasses sashaying down Cambridge Terrace . Poplars and Avon River . Good friends to yarn with . Gotta be glad of the special things . And not get derailed by the weirdness of the financial world . Not alot we can do , no one listening to our rants . ............... . Got enough " eye candy " in my mind's eye to get me through the day . Yippeeeeeeee ! [ point taken though , Gibber , I shall step aside , and not de-rail the gloomy-guss bus ]
Most days i feel like
Most days i feel like scott adams was in my office the day before, but for todays one he must have been hanging around during the writing of the Brash 2025 report. Life imitates Dilbert eh?
Sorry Wally . Carry on
Sorry Wally . Carry on . Ignore me . Being happy . The mortgage is paid off . Strawberries galore in the garden . My John Lee Hooker CD arrived . Feeling pretty good about life in NZ .......the end of the USA is nigh , you say , please expatiate on .
<i> "The sap is rising",
"The sap is rising", " watching sweet lasses sashaying ", "eye candy in my mind's eye"
Gibber - the only explanation I can think of is that maybe he's in love...?!
Looks like the carry trade
Looks like the carry trade could be over for a bit;
http://economicedge.blogspot.com/2009/12/yves-lamoureux-carry-trade-is-n...
Im with Wally, we are going the UK route,higher taxes, paying more for what you need, less for what you don't.
Japan is is a mess
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/676424...
as Micheal Hudson recently said,'a depression lasting for the foreseeable future'.
Yeah no worries RT...any idea
Yeah no worries RT...any idea why people don't want to see the taxes heading their way...or the mortgage rate rises for that matter....is it really a case of deny deny deny and the monster will go away?
OCR steady at 2.5 %..........Survey
OCR steady at 2.5 %..........Survey of 521 employers ( Manpower Services ) shows increasing likelihood of worker hiring , decreasing chances of redundancies..........Fonterrible still agin the 18000 factory cow farm in the MacKensie Basin.........Gosh , lots of good news this morning , team . Joy to the world !!! ( the rug-rat is at pre-school , and I got a pot of fresh coffee , all for me . It just gets better and better . )
Artificially low OCR, High employment,
Artificially low OCR, High employment, Red hot housing market...what could possibly go wrong?
*vigorously tries to blow match out*
Invest in sand Wally, sales
Invest in sand Wally, sales will be through the roof as most people will be looking for a pile of it to bury their heads.
Roger, Can I have some
Roger,
Can I have some of your gummy bears? Alan had eaten all the bears in the RBNZ jar before this morning's OCR announcement.
cheers
Bernard
#1; The age-bomb: coming soon
#1; The age-bomb: coming soon to NZ. Sooo much less sexy than gold or a GFC I know.
#4 Graphic of the year. Techies could do other wonderful things in this vein.
re Max Brownlee's power "reforms": A couple of days ago I decided to switch to Powershop from Meridian. It will take until January 6 for Meridian to transfer me!
But within 24 hours I received a postcard from Jeremy Wells asking why I wanted to swap. 24 hours after that a call from Meridian's nice young man who offered me 20% prompt payment discount to stay. If that effort went into keeping their customers happy or cutting prices then maybe I would be inclined to buy Meridian renewable power on Powershop; but what I see is an inflated marketing budget with the prices being passed on to consumers so I'm off.
Yes , Bernard . I
Yes , Bernard . I got the impression that Alan was on a sugar rush this morning . And for good reason . There are moments of good news bobbing above the flotsam of gloom . Not before time , too . I'll get helicopter Ben to add a bag of gummy bears for you , if there's room , in the next mighty moola-drop . Oh , and a tin of Dapper Dan's as well .
This is an interesting point
This is an interesting point in #9.
" It will send the wrong price signals for a country that prides itself on creating sophisticated, highly valuable products, for a low dollar will encourage producers to compete on price more than quality. It will diminish the political influence and prestige that the US has had while the dollar has been king."
Sand....jeez he could be right...as
Sand....jeez he could be right...as long as it's West Coast black sand...the stuff that's laced with fine yellow grains of ........
Just for fun - Comedy
Just for fun -
Comedy Central Takes On The Federal Reserve
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/comedy-central-takes-federal-reserve
http://www.3news.co.nz/Deficit-hit-Ireland-slashes-salaries-welf
http://www.3news.co.nz/Deficit-hit-Ireland-slashes-salaries-welfare-pay/...
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@Business Marketing. I see you
@Business Marketing. I see you evaded the spam filter. Your days are numbered.
Yeah ! We don't go
Yeah ! We don't go for that sort of thing . Only UGG boots allowed here . ...
Big UGG .
Nike UGG .
Tall Timber UGG .
UGGY day .
Special UGG .
Alex UGG
$$$ off UGG
Bernard UGG
Hair-do UGG
Bollard Lo-UGG
OCR 2.5 UGG
There is a massive change
There is a massive change underway in the mobile media market as it becomes unshackled from the operators' portals that have dominated it for a decade, all without having made any significant inroads into the content use of mobile users. The new capped data packages, fuelled by further competition, will see a total revamp of the mobile media market. It will no longer be based on portals but on direct services by content and services providers via open source phones and mobile-friendly Internet-based services. The next step is the continued emergence of m-commerce and in particular m-payment services.
ecommerce
They're slipping past you UGG
They're slipping past you
UGG Alex
ecommerce UGG
sumi UGG
Business UGG
Marketing UGG
spot the UGG
spammers UGG
if you UGG can
gummy UGG bear
on the UGG prowl
One World Currency owned by
One World Currency owned by whom, and to the benefit of whom, that is the question?
Not the current slaveminded mob, as explained in sleek detail here, we would hope:
http://www.bendyson.com/
http://www.bendyson.com/blueprint-for-the-future-how-monetary-reform-can...
Or how it can be done for the benefit of all, not just the slaveminded elitist's few:
http://www.reinventingmoney.com/slides.html
As always it will come down to learned behaviours of common decency or self destructive, selfish, natural animal instincts.
@Wally, negative today more than
@Wally, negative today more than usual.....I still think you are ignoring the biggest likely outcome for next year, deflation, a second recession dip and not inflation(not in 2010 and 2011 anyway). Sure where there are effective monopolies there will be price rises electrity etc. Goods though I think will get cheaper yet...China has too many factories pumping out the consumer goods no one wants......also Re: petrol, oil is steadily declining....and,
I watched the "Meredith Whitney" piece with interest....she sorta seemed to be trying not to commit to being hugely negative....one talking head dork seemed to think all was well with shares etc...
From this I think the "markets" are now pricing in a mild recession....oil I'd guess will drop again, there is supposed to be tankers of the stuff sitting around...so the Q is will the speculators stop waiting for higher rices and sell soon....also Iraq is starting to ramp up production in 2010 and 2011+....so this points to an oil glut and with low global demand...so petrol "should" become cheaper....of course I dont consider the "market" rational or predictable....so who knows...
regards
Roger Ugg Bernard
Roger
Ugg
Bernard
Bernard Dapper Dan's pomade UGG
Bernard
Dapper Dan's pomade
UGG
Roger
Allied Farmers share price plunged
Allied Farmers share price plunged from 29 , to 20 cents , yesterday . Valuing the micro-cap at just $ 7.5 million . Turn-over of shares was 520 000 in 4 trading days this week . Compare that with 4.8 million shares changing hands in the rolling year . We can surmise that existing shareholders are bailing out en masse .
A word of advice to Hanover investors , soon to receive screeds of newly printed Allied shares : You may gain more value out of your Allied shares by utilising them as toilet paper , thereby saving on the need to purchase the commercially available product , from the supermarket .
UGG-ly !!!
....... And now those Allied
....... And now those Allied Farmers shares are trading at a pitiful 1.2 cents ...... A mighty 50 % above their year's low ! ....... Wow , Rob Alloway must really be kicking butt , down there in .......... ahhhhh , remind me , where are the holes in the ground that they inherited ...... Queenstown ?
500 000 ALF ( NZX ) shares traded today , ....... less than $ 5000 worth ! ......... Toilet paper , Rob .
Hey Roger, have you seen
Hey Roger, have you seen the report on how our poxy govt is changing the law to make it easier for them to restructure the Auckland local govt pigsty....seems the takeover code re aia is a wee problem...so the pricks are changing the law to over ride the code...see you can pop off down and rob the bank now and just tell the cops you changed the law!!!!
Yaaas , Wally : First
Yaaas , Wally : First Michael Cullen faffing around and destroying shareholder wealth , and now this lot changing the rules to suit their agenda . Remind me , Wally , what was the point of that election in 2008 . "Cos nuttin' much has changed around here .
What does this say to
What does this say to a foreign entity considering an investment in New Zealand....it shouts out loud " there are no bloody market rules that apply to the govt in NZ and so you invest in this ponzi economy at your own risk because at any time the govt can and will change the rules to fit their political aims".
Yay global currency! (no sarcasm
Yay global currency! (no sarcasm intended). The sooner we unite the soon we can get to work gardening on Mars. It really needs some work.
"We are grateful to The Washington Post, The New York Times, Time Magazine and other great publications whose directors have attended our meetings and respected their promises of discretion for almost forty years. It would have been impossible for us to develop our plan for the world if we had been subject to the bright lights of publicity during those years. But, the work is now much more sophisticated and prepared to march towards a world government. The supranational sovereignty of an intellectual elite and world bankers is surely preferable to the national autodetermination practiced in past centuries." David Rockefeller, founder of the Trilateral Commission , in an address to a meeting of The Trilateral Commission, in June, 1991.
Hi Wally -<i>"any time the
Hi Wally -"any time the govt can and will change the rules to fit their political aims".
I take it you've been keeping up with Brownlee's BRILLIANT plan for the electricity sector then? Not content with confiscating assets from a nominally autonomous commercial company (meridian) he is also going to force all the major generators (>500MW) to play a new game he has made up involving longterm hedging contracts. This wouldn't be quite so bad if it didn't include Contact - a wholly-shareholder owned publically listed company.
And splitting the highly interlinked Waitaki scheme up between two players is the stupidest idea since Max Bradford. And it won't work anyway - the reason that the gentailers are still regionally focussed is that transpowers network is so damn shonky they can't move power around effectively anymore. Thats because 30 years of governments have refused to invest in the power transmission grid, until it started falling over bigtime under the cook strait a couple of years ago. It didn't work Gerry - just give up and re-nationalise the lot of it so that the real industries in this country actually get on with generating export income supported by a stable and cheap electicity infrastructure. Electricity users should not be subsidising government spending and you shouldn't be treating vital infrastructure as a cash-cow.
Yes I am an angry bunny presently...
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