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Most viewed
Top 10 at 10: South Canterbury's Wanaka woes; Depression-like drop in US lending; Somers-Edgar on NZX?; Dilbert
Here are my Top 10 links from around the Internet at 10am. I welcome your additions and comments in the comments below or please email me your suggestions for Thursday's Top 10 at 10 to bernard.hickey@interest.co.nz An amazing response to yesterday's Top 10 at 10 with over 120 responses and counting. Note to self: I must goad Mark Hubbard more...also Where's Wally? Come back Wally. We miss you. John Minto would like today's Dilbert
1. Wanaka's largest resort development, Oakridge Resort, has gone into receivership, the Southland Times reports. South Canterbury Finance is the financier and this will be one more headache for Allan Hubbard to sort out as he scrambles to raise more equity. HT Ruru in yesterday's Top 10. Meanwhile South Canterbury has delayed issuing a new prospectus as it scrambles to raise new capital
Developer Par Hallberg, the sole director of all six companies, said money owed to South Canterbury Finance was related to unrealised plans for a 48-villa development on 25ha of land beside the resort.
After he paid for the land and resource consent, arrangements with an Australian buyer had fallen through, Mr Hallberg said. "I have lost everything I own," he said.
He would not comment on how much money he owed South Canterbury Finance or how much he had sunk into the new development.
The receivership means the land, the resort's two restaurants, conference centre, reception area, gym, pool, and Mr Hallberg's own house, are owned by South Canterbury Finance. The 173 rooms at the resort are not included in the receivership, having already been sold to small investors.
Related Topics
2. IMF professor Tim Congdon says US bank loans have fallen at an annualised pace of 14% in the three months to August, which is a similar rate of contraction as during the Great Depression, reports Ambrose Evans Pritchard at The Telegraph. HT AndrewJ in yesterday's Top 10 comments, Greg Elliott via email and Gertraud Tschida via email.
"There has been nothing like this in the USA since the 1930s," he said. "The rapid destruction of money balances is madness."
Mr Congdon said a key reason for credit contraction is pressure on banks to raise their capital ratios. While this is well-advised in boom times, it makes matters worse in a downturn.
"The current drive to make banks less leveraged and safer is having the perverse consequence of destroying money balances," he said. "It strengthens the deflationary forces in the world economy. That increases the risks of a double-dip recession in 2010."
Similar concerns have been raised by David Rosenberg, chief strategist at Gluskin Sheff, who said that over the four weeks up to August 24, bank credit shrank at an "epic" 9pc annual pace, the M2 money supply shrank at 12.2pc and M1 shrank at 6.5pc.
"For the first time in the post-WW2 [Second World War] era, we have deflation in credit, wages and rents and, from our lens, this is a toxic brew," he said.
3. Despite this, however, US producer prices rose 1.7% in August, which was more than double the expected inflation, Bloomberg reported. US retail sales also rose a surprising 2.7%. HT Troy Barsten via email.
Producer prices are one of three monthly inflation gauges reported by the Labor Department. Prices of goods imported into the U.S. fell a more-than-forecast 2 percent in August, led by a surge in fuel costs. The Labor Department tomorrow will probably report consumer prices rose 0.3 percent last month after holding steady the prior month, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg.
Fed policy makers on Aug. 12 committed to keeping the key interest rate between zero and 0.25 percentage point "for an extended period" to promote economic recovery. They said they expected "inflation will remain subdued for some time."
The economy will grow at a 2.9 percent annual rate in the July-through-September period, according to the median of 61 estimates in a monthly Bloomberg News survey, and slow to a 2.2 percent pace during the last three months of the year.
4. Does the NZX really want to have a property fund listed on it that has or had close connections with Money Managers (Doug Somers-Edgar)? It seems DNZ is preparing for a NZX float and a capital raising, Anne Gibson reports in the NZHerald. The NZX already has Allan Hawkins. It did reject Rod Petricevic. Does it really want anything to do with Doug?
DNZ, with 61 investment properties, has many shareholders who were or still are Money Managers' clients and they held their annual meeting at the Duxton in Auckland.
Money Managers has previously been closely associated with DNZ when the business was Dominion Funds.
Under chief executive Paul Duffy, the real estate company has changed its name and its structure, axing syndicates and in the last few months trading on the unlisted market.
Duffy told the meeting DNZ planned to list on NZX and had a sunset clause which meant it must be completed before September 15 next year.
"I would be confident in saying it would be completed before that date," Duffy told shareholders, adding that last month DNZ retained Goldman Sachs JBWere to advise it.
5. Renowned investor Jim Rogers is reported by American Banking News as saying that bank regulators should be put in jail for not allowing banks to fail. HT Raf Manji via email
"The real problem over the past 10-15 years has been that regulators have not let people fail. Had they let people fail we would have solved this problem a long time ago. I don't know why they're not in jail."
When Rogers says this, understand he's identifying the problem as it is today, not attacking the ultimate root of the problem, which is the Federal Reserve and the need to abolish it. But to wonder why they're not in jail for their actions is a powerful statement by Rogers as to what their practices have brought about, and the consequences of those actions across a wide sphere of our social makeup.
Rogers has been accurately hitting hard for some time on the foolishness of propping up any business by the government which has obviously been run poorly. He rightly exposed the stupidity of supporting businesses and banks which aren't able to compete with better run companies, and although dead, are allowed to live, not based on improved practices, but on the infusion of taxpayer money which they think will be offered in endless supply. That's why Rogers always uses the term "zombie" when referring to businesses and banks this type of artificial life support.
6. Dylan Ratigan at HuffingtonPost writes cogently about how bank lobbyists are preventing essential reform in the banking system. This is interesting given HuffPo is supposedly friendly to Obama. HT Ross Palmer via email.
The American people have been taken hostage to a broken system. It is a system that remains in place to this day. A system where bank lobbyists have beenspending in record numbers to make sure it stays that way.
A system that corrupts the most basic principles of competition and fair play, principles upon which this country was built. It is a system that so far has forced the taxpayer to provide the banks with the use of $14 trillion from the Federal Reserve, much of the $7 trillion outstanding at the US Treasury and $2.3 trillion at the FDIC.
A system partially built by the very people who currently advise our President, run our Treasury Department and are charged with its reform.
And most stunningly -- it is a system that no one in our government has yet made any effort to fundamentally change.
7. Even Ariana Huffington has weighed in herself to criticise Obama for being asleep at the wheel. HT Ross Palmer.
Listening to President Obama's heartfelt, well-intentioned, but ultimately naïve speech on financial reform today, my mind kept flashing on a story I heard the last time Washington, in the wake of the Enron scandal, promised to reform Wall Street.
The story came from a friend who took a family trip on a cruise ship. Her 10-year-old son kept pestering the crew, begging for a chance to drive the massive ocean liner. The captain finally invited the family up to the bridge, whereupon the boy grabbed hold of the wheel and began vigorously turning it. My friend panicked -- until the captain leaned over and told her not to worry, that the ship was on autopilot, and that her son's maneuvers would have no effect.
8. Now the juicy stuff is coming out about what really happened in those final amazing months of George Bush's presidency and it's not pretty. Essentially, George Bush had no idea what his Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson was doing.
Matt Latimer worked as a speechwriter for Bush and has the inside story in GQ magazine. HT Felix Salmon at Reuters.
We wrote speeches nearly every time the stock market flipped. Meanwhile, the White House seemed to have ceded all of its authority on economic matters to the secretive secretary of the treasury. The president was clearly frustrated with this. I was told that at one Oval Office meeting, he got very animated and exclaimed to Paulson, "You've got to tell me what you're doing!" (In the weeks that followed, Paulson changed his spending priorities two or three times. Incredibly, he'd been given the power to do with that money virtually anything he pleased. All thanks to a president who didn't understand his proposal and a Congress that didn't stop to think.)
9. Here's (former IMF chief economist) Simon Johnson's post-mortem at Baseline Scenario on Obama's speech about banking reform. He's not a fan... This is the must-read link of the day because Johnson refers back to the epic attack on investment banks by Louis Brandeis in 1914 and draws parallels.
President Obama's speech yesterday was disappointing. As a diagnosis of the problems that let us into financial crisis, it was his clearest and best effort so far. He didn't say it was a rare accident for which no one is to blame; rather he placed the blame squarely on the structure, incentives, and actions of Wall Street.
But then he said: our regulatory reforms will fix that. This is hard to believe. And even the President seems to have his doubts, because he added a plea that "“ in the meantime "“ the financial sector should behave better.
The audience was comprised of our financial elite, but the Wall Street Journal reports "not one CEO from a top U.S. bank was in attendance" (p.A4). How's that for demonstrating respect, gratitude, and a willingness to behave better?
10. Tyler Durden at Zero Hedge points out that law firm Jones Day filed a suit demanding Barclays give back US$5 billion after it bought Lehman Bros. It seems some funny business went on...
In a stunning development in the case of bankrupt Lehman Brothers, Jones Day today filed a statement in which it is essentially demanding over $5 billion from its "savior" Barclays, which ended up purchasing Lehman's North American brokerage, after the law firm and LBHI have allegedly uncovered massive behind the scenes machinations, whose sole purposes was to lower the cost price for the brokerage (and in the process impair Lehman equity and credit stakeholders) and to increase the amount of money transfered to Barclays.

@ Item 10 If Tom
@ Item 10
If Tom Junod' Esquire article detailing the "Deal of the Century" was even 50% truthiness (great read BTW) it seems JPMorgan may have lot more splanin to do then does Barclay.
http://www.esquire.com/features/barclays-deal-of-the-century-1009
Great link Troy. Cheers.
Great link Troy. Cheers.
Nice to see that you
Nice to see that you can't keep a good man down , or jail him in NZ , welcome back Doug Somers-Edgar . And remember , Dougie , as you start a new venture , be careful with the first step !
Seriously - what are the
Seriously - what are the odds now of SCF needing to be rescued by the government deposit scheme?
Over a 12 month view I would put it at 50%.
As to Doug SE being set loose on the NZ investing public again - well that truly is astonishing.
Oh dear, and the financial
Oh dear, and the financial press thought Allen Hubbard was the South Island's Warren Buffett. He might have to keep the old house in retirement.
2. Just shows that inflation
2. Just shows that inflation worriers have no case to rest upon. As the BoE reminded us last night, banks are still in the red zone when it comes to capital. Also shows that the huge bearishness on the $ may be misplaced at this time. $ are not flooding the market but merely going into bank balance sheets to replace destroyed loans.
And stocks continue to rise....oh dear.
8. + 9. Oh dear, oh dear.
Bernard, Speaking of Lehman, the
Bernard,
Speaking of Lehman, the ever level headed Niall Ferguson has a great article on them at FT:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f96f2134-a15b-11de-a88d-00144feabdc0.html?ncli...
Here's some good news ...
Here's some good news ...
NZ achieves $1 billion wine export milestone
link here
#1 - Gee... the pictue
#1 - Gee... the pictue in number 1 proviides some great landscaping ideas for the Palestine wall.
Matt I guess its what
Matt
I guess its what you call, a hollow victory.
Raf, IMHO you can't just
Raf,
IMHO you can't just magic up money with a key stroke and hand it to banks to cancel out losses caused by bad investments. There has to be a cost. It must be inflation sooner or later. At the moment both inflationists and deflationists see confirmation bias everywhere they look.
In the history of the world gold has never gone to zero. All fiat currencies have.
MattS - It's a pity
MattS - It's a pity that some members of the NZ Wine industry has to use illegal slave labour to achieve this milestone.
Its also a pity we
Its also a pity we had to sell all the past years unsold wine at a discount to do it.
Andy, well they had to
Andy, well they had to keep their costs down somehow ;-)
But did they make a
But did they make a profit?
1% loss on $1B is worse than the same on on a $2.50 turnover!
marky mark, "IMHO you can’t
marky mark,
"IMHO you can't just magic up money with a key stroke and hand it to banks to cancel out losses caused by bad investments".
That's how they create money in the first place. It's all magic.
That's why its important to keep your eyes on two bits of info:
- Money supply aggregates.
- Lending statistics.
The RB could credit you with $1bln. But if you did nothing with it it would have no impact other than to improve your balance sheet. That's exactly what is happening now and what happened in Japan.
Allan Hubbard, Doug Somers-Edgar..... I
Allan Hubbard, Doug Somers-Edgar..... I tend to be cautious of South Island financial wizards, not because they are South Islanders (who can be as savvy as anyone), but because their fellow S Islanders tend to be very proud & supportive of them, & pour investment money down their throats, so it is hard to judge their actual competence.
Remember Bruce Judge? The South absolutely loved him. For a while.
BTW, how is Mike Pero going?....
Raf, Time will tell whether
Raf,
Time will tell whether the US and UK end up like Japan or not.
Peter Schiff argues that the US won't because of the following structural differences between the Japanese and US economies-
1. In 1990 Japan was the worlds largest creditor nation whereas the US is the world's largest debtor nation.
2. The Japanese had (and maybe still do) the worlds' largest savings meaning that the Japanese Govt can finance its reckless budgets / stimulus with domestic savings rather than relying on foreign creditors.
3. Aside from the stock/land bubble the Japanese economy was and remains fundamentally much more sound than the American. The Japanese were and are able to manufacture and produce high quality products that the world wants. America ain't exporting its way anywhere. It's bankrupt.
It sounds like we both agree that the green shoots will wilt it's just an argument as to whether we are going to use roundup or a lawnmower.
Most popular baby name in
Most popular baby name in London? Mohammed
NZPA
Last updated 17:23 16/09/2009
Mohammed is the most common name for baby boys born in London and three other English regions, official Government figures have shown.
More at
http://www.nzcpr.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=13&p=24383#p24383
Ditto for the four biggest
Ditto for the four biggest cities in Holland.
Peter Schiff argues that the
Peter Schiff argues that the US won't because of the following structural differences between the Japanese and US economies-
"1. In 1990 Japan was the worlds largest creditor nation whereas the US is the world's largest debtor nation."
"2. The Japanese had (and maybe still do) the worlds' largest savings meaning that the Japanese Govt can finance its reckless budgets / stimulus with domestic savings rather than relying on foreign creditors."
"3. Aside from the stock/land bubble the Japanese economy was and remains fundamentally much more sound than the American. The Japanese were and are able to manufacture and produce high quality products that the world wants. America ain't exporting its way anywhere. It's bankrupt."
Yes, the largest pool of private savings in the world sits in the Japanese Post Office. It could also be said that Japanese asset prices could have reached "fair value" after 20+ years of deflation. Nobody in the West believes such a scenario could happen in their own country (which I put down to Anglo-Saxon arrogance more than anything else).
Whenever you read a media report about Japan, it's always focused on the public debt (in excess of 200% of GDP), but you never read about the private savings that has indirectly fueled property booms, etc. It's quite ironic.
And at the last UK
And at the last UK Census only 2.7% of the population were Muslim, so your point is London Muslims are not very imaginative with their name choices ?
Take your pathetic fearmongering somewhere else
Getting back on message... what
Getting back on message... what is sadly amusing about the present crisis in the US is that they're doing precisely the opposite of what they advised the Japanese to do with their burst bubble.
Summing up the differences between the two, Japan was BETTER equipped to handle a credit meltdown than the US. Oh, and as JC says, a big dose of arrogance from the US side (do a search of the 90s news archive of articles explaining why the US wouldn't end up like Japan).
Re 2 I'm with raf
Re 2
I'm with raf on this one. There's all this hype about rising inflation and interest rates meanwhile banks are still building their ratios and even parking funds back at the Fed.
Can't see many inflation worries with this bottleneck still in place.
"Summing up the differences between
"Summing up the differences between the two, Japan was BETTER equipped to handle a credit meltdown than the US. Oh, and as JC says, a big dose of arrogance from the US side (do a search of the 90s news archive of articles explaining why the US wouldn't end up like Japan)."
Well, let's not only bag the Yanks. If you talk to an average Kiwi about the possibility of property deflation in NZ similar to what has happened in Japan, you'll see as much BS flowing as you'll find in a Crafer milking shed. It usually goes along the lines of "record immigration; tight supply; cultural traits tending towards home ownership".... the same old tired rhetoric. That being said, the Aussies are even more bullet-proof in the superiority of their economic infallibility. Personally, I think we have good reason to entertain the notion that prolonged deflation won't happen (it's not in our economic DNA and the central bankers would take some extreme measures), but a little humility wouldn't go amiss.
Why did the issue of
Why did the issue of the UK Muslim population come up?
However since it has, it's worth pointing out Expat that the figures you quote are already out of date.
The UK population as of Aug 2009 was 61.4 million
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/8224520.stm
The UK Muslim population (as of Jan 2009) is now calculated at 2.42million (UK Labour Force Survey - source http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/life_and_style/article5621482.ece)
That would be a UK Muslim population of 3.94%.
The article from the Times states:
"The Muslim population in Britain has grown by more than 500,000 to 2.4 million in just four years, according to official research collated for The Times.
The population multiplied 10 times faster than the rest of society, the research by the Office for National Statistics reveals. In the same period the number of Christians in the country fell by more than 2 million".
Some fairly significant demographic changes happening in Pommyland if those figures are extrapolated forward.
Super Fund targets global property
Super Fund targets global property
By KRIS HALL - The Dominion Post
Last updated 05:00 10/09/2009
EYES ON PROPERTY: New Zealand's $13 billion retirement nest egg is upping its investment in global real estate.
New Zealand's $13 billion retirement nest egg is upping its investment in global real estate and plans to snap up stakes in listed property funds it still considers cheap.
The New Zealand Superannuation Fund has hired United States investment firm Franklin Templeton Investments as global property advisers to "identify and filter" potential investment opportunities over a five-year period.
As at the end of July 2008, New York stock exchange listed Franklin managed more than US$570 billion (NZ$819b) worth of assets.
In 2004, it paid fines to the US Securities and Exchange Commission , among others, to settle issues regarding questionable practices.
Super fund general manager private markets Matt Whineray said the fund created to partly prefund New Zealand's future superannuation liability was chasing a greater weighting towards property because the asset class provided stable and predictable cash flows over a long investment horizon.
"We see the next five years as a good time to increase that opportunistic investment," said Mr Whineray.
While global real estate stocks had the potential to run out of steam following their recent surge, Mr Whineray said the battered sector still had legs.
To date, the fund has some 12 per cent of its value, or NZ$1.234b invested in property, the bulk of which is managed externally. Most of that, NZ$914 million, is held with global real estate investment trusts.
More money is invested indirectly in property through timber and public infrastructure partnerships such as the $100m injected into the new Morrison & Co-run $500m infrastructure fund that aims to provide money for schools, hostels, social housing and prisons.
While the government directive calling for 40 per cent of the fund to be invested in New Zealand was "not an order", Mr Whineray said the decision to freeze funding until 2021 would be a problem. "Our investments in property and other investment classes will not be as large as they would have been."
Super fund can't have seen
Super fund can't have seen this http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1254384498&play=1
maybe NZ superfund will save
maybe NZ superfund will save the farms?
Hyperinflation Nation: A short, informative
Hyperinflation Nation: A short, informative video documentary well worth watching, irrespective of your politics, and particularly if you are a US citizen!
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1253081100.php
Having stayed at the Oakridge
Having stayed at the Oakridge last week, im not surprised it struggling, its on the edge of town 5-10mins drive from wanaka so you feel out of it - the outdoor areas are nice enough but the the rooms while looking ok now (as its relatively new) are on the downhill slide already and the layouts terrible. For a weekend on one of the best skiing weekends I have ever had, the place was deserted with only one group in the bar/resturant - doesnt bode well for Summer.