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Australian GDP grew 0.6% in June quarter; Questions on when RBA will hike rates (Update 1)

Posted in News

Australian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew 0.6% in the June quarter from March as the Australian economy continued to batter away the global recession. The New Zealand dollar fell slightly against the Australian dollar on the news, but remained above 81 AU cents shortly after. Update 1: By Thursday morning the NZ$ had fallen into the 80 Au cent range. The growth indicated an annualised rate of 2.4%, up from the annualised 1.5% growth in the March quarter. The result was above a median estimate of 0.2% quarterly growth in a Bloomberg survey of 20 economists, but below a 0.7% estimate from an AAP survey.

Yesterday, the Reserve Bank of Australia left its key interest rate at 3%, after expectations began to arise that the RBA will raise the rate as soon as October as the Australian economy strengthens. However, RBA Governor Glenn Stevens still seems to have left the door open regarding when he will raise the rate. This is in contrast to New Zealand's Official Cash Rate, which is at 2.5% and likely to remain at or below its current level if the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's 'low till late 2010' expectation eventuates and as the NZ economy gradually recovers from its worst recession in 30 years. However, the market has signalled its view that RBNZ Governor Alan Bollard may raise the rate sooner than this time-frame is up. For more on the Australian economy and interest rate movements and analysis across the Tasman, see our sister site, www.interestratenews.com.au

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

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To be sure , the

To be sure , the Ozzies are kicking your backside again , New Zealand ! Dey have a Labour government , and you have a National administration . How is it den , that their socialists are better financial managers , dan your capitalists . Youse must be da thickest sons of guns outside of the land of da bogs and da little people .

Dey had a conservative administration

Dey had a conservative administration for a long time, and we a labour one. Takes a wee while to change tings, Bogdon....

'Tis it so , Harriet

'Tis it so , Harriet . You tink da National government is doing da better job dan Mr Cullen did ? In wot way ; he gave you surpluses and many taxes . Wadda Bill and John doing for you , den ?

Is that growth rate per

Is that growth rate per capita or gross growth?
If it is gross then it is only just keeping up with the population growth of 1.9%

Bogtrotter OKeefe now what was

Bogtrotter OKeefe now what was it you said about the Irish Tiger Economy.

Take a look at this:

Take a look at this:
http://business.theage.com.au/business/the-gdp-numbers-dont-add-up-20090...
Seems the aussie GDP figure is about as sound as the Kiwi economy!

Ah, Bogdon. You see, you

Ah, Bogdon. You see, you and me tink da same ting about dat luvly Mr. Key ( doesn't he have a luvly smile!). He be chasin' da pot o' gold at da end o' da rainbow, I tink, and he be forgettin' dat he is s'pose to be doin' sumtin' to make da country run better. Cullen? Would dat be of the Cullen's of county Kildare, Bogdon? Ah, dey were a luvly family; always holdin' on to their gold.

Leprecorny!

Leprecorny!

I tink it tinks. Let's

I tink it tinks. Let's move on!

Will be interesting if the

Will be interesting if the relative strength of the Aus economy starts to shift migration patterns ie. kiwis will start flocking there again for better job prospects

Ha ! another mirage....this miserable

Ha ! another mirage....this miserable 0.6% is a result of massive stimulus by the Rudd goverment...everybody forgot the 80billion dollar stimulus program?? Ever wonder what will happen after all this pump priming ends?? Or are we to assume the "pumping" (some call it "pimping" the economy) never ends? In which case how and where is the money going to come from ??

Just watch for the next two quarters results and don't be disappionted when the growth disappears!!

Wow !!! Even before I

Wow !!! Even before I finished typing the above I got this from The Age in OZ:

http://business.theage.com.au/business/the-gdp-numbers-dont-add-up-20090...

So I am right ?? The figure is a Mirage after all ???

Hmmm. Between the drop in

Hmmm. Between the drop in iron ore and coal contract prices from obscenely high levels and a 20%-odd rise in the Aussie dollar, what's so unbelievable about that?

aussies keeping their heads above

aussies keeping their heads above water through smoke'n'mirrors. trying to gee the masses up that things are fine and they're heading back into the good times of unconstrained growth and prosperity so get out there and spend it!!!! I think we'd all agree they're doing OK and ultimately will do better than most but no country is going to get away unscathed when we all start the very, very steep downward leg of the second part of this "w" recession

Let's face the fact that

Let's face the fact that 0.6 percent growth in GDP is still a positive growth in its economy. Bernard, you have highlighted in a timely manner that our economy is a "Property Market". If our economy continues in this manner and lack investment into the productive sectors that our GDP equation needed most, then we have to accept the outcome that more might just start to consider moving across to Australia again once their economy show signs of positive growth. Is there any solution to address our Property Market economy per se? Who can address this property obsession and quickly channel the focus towards a productive and export led economy for growth before we are too late?

Trouble in the Sand States

Trouble in the Sand States
by Bill Bonner
Bedford Springs, Pennsylvania

Summer is over...and the rally may be over, too.

It's back to business. No more long lunches. No more afternoons painting windows. No more soirees in the evening.

We return to our lonely métier - chronicling the decline and fall of the US economy...and the Anglo-American empire too....

Two bits of news signal the scale of this trend. But first, here's one two-bit piece of news: the Dow lost 185 points yesterday. Could this mark the beginning of the end for the rally? Yes, it could. Should you be out of US stocks? Yes, you should.

But let's turn back to our 'decline and fall' chronicles...

From Florida, comes news of the first drop in population in 60 years. "Unemployment is soaring," reports USA Today. "Florida is second to California on foreclosures."

Yes, dear reader, there is trouble in the sand states...

Florida lost a net 58,000 people this year...for the first time since the 1940s.

Why would that be? We'll take a guess. Florida is a state where people go to retire. It is where people go when they stop producing and begin consuming. The major industry in the state was housing...building houses for consumers!

But now, the turn has come. Fewer people have money to consume. And those who do are keeping their money in their pockets. We even saw a report in The Wall Street Journal that people are cutting their own hair to save money. They're also staying put, rather than moving to Florida. So Florida needs fewer new houses...and fewer people to build them.

Second, from national income statistics comes a report that the typical US household has less discretionary spending than at any time in the last 50 years. Why? Americans have no money to spend because they already spent it! Now they're paying the price. And it will take years - maybe 10 years, maybe longer - before they've paid down their debts to more comfortable levels. In the meantime, they are poorer than they've been since the Eisenhower years.

Keeping it simple: Our view is that there is a major transition underway. There will be no genuine recovery, not now...not never. That is not to say the world economy is doomed to perpetual darkness and misery. Not at all. What it's doomed to is a long period of adjustment...with high unemployment, on-again, off-again recession, and desperate efforts by the feds to return to the good old days of the bubble years.

But there's no going back. It was as if the economy was playing a game of Russian roulette...and then the pistol went off - the debt bubble blew up. Once the bullet left the chamber, the game was over. Recovery? Forget about it. The old economy isn't going to bounce back; it's dead.

Still, just because a thing is hopeless doesn't make it unpopular. The feds are fighting the correction every step of the way. They're propping up brain-dead companies...and keeping zombie banks going by feeding them the blood of taxpayers. It's ghoulish...it's a very scary movie!

Unfortunately, the ghouls vote! And everywhere the feds look there's a campaign contributor or a lobbyist or a voter...and they all want the A-positive blood of taxpayers. They look to the feds for a transfusion in order to keep living in the style to which they've become accustomed...

Just what you'd expect, in other words. And with so much debt in the system, the feds are desperate to raise inflation levels. They must increase the CPI to persuade consumers to spend money rather than save it. Otherwise, the nation risks falling into a deflation trap - the very thing Ben Bernanke has pledged to avoid. So they'll continue going down that road - towards inflation - until they finally get there. And they'll keep pressing harder and harder on the monetary accelerator until they finally run into a tree. Again, just what you'd expect.

So, where's the surprise? We're on the road to destruction; that's clear. But it may be a much longer road than most people expect.

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in London's Telegraph:

"'The current financial crisis is unlike any others,' says the Bank for International Settlements. Lasting damage has been done. The 'cumulative output loss' is likely to reach 20pc of GDP in the major economies.

"The message is the same at the International Monetary Fund. 'The world is not in a run of the mill recession. The crisis has left deep scars. In advanced countries, the financial systems are partly dysfunctional,' said Olivier Blanchard, the Fund's chief economist.

"It has certainly alarmed US retail tycoon Howard Davidowitz. 'As a country we are out of control, we're in a death spiral,' he said.

"Jeff Wenniger from Harris Private Bank says an army of baby-boomers have seen their old age plans shattered by the housing bust. Their nightmare is here. They will have to spend less, and save more. 'Generational destruction of a society's balance sheet will not rectify itself in a matter of months.'

agree AndrewJ - adjustment is

agree AndrewJ - adjustment is going to be painful but adjust we will have to. anyone want to buy a house in tauraunga, 3yrs remaining of a 5-yr rental agreement with HNZ and a further 5 yr option on top. got to be in to win!!!!