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Who do you think should be appointed Reserve Bank Governor to replace Alan Bollard when he retires in September?

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Top 10 at 10: Hubbard talks IPO; China commodities default?; 'Five Economic Horsemen'; Dilbert; Daily Show

Posted in News

Here are my Top 10 links from around the Internet at 10 am. I welcome your additions and comments in the comments below or please send your suggestions for Wednesday's Top 10 at 10 to bernard.hickey@interest.co.nz Dilbert.com 1. South Island finance legend Allan Hubbard, 80, is talking up the prospect of a float that may include some of his other assets separate from South Canterbury Finance. Alan Wood from The Press (Stuff) has a rare interview with Hubbard, who seems a bit shaken by the losses taken by South Canterbury and the need for it to find a new cornerstone shareholder.

"That's right, we're forging ahead, we're recovering and we're going to do a float, we'll give you the details of that later." South Canterbury Finance previously planned a $200 million-plus stock exchange float in 2005, but it later pulled out when Hubbard got cold feet. The company now has assets of about $2.31 billion but has seen some negative news in recent months, and Hubbard, who is aged in his 80s, acknowledged there was also the possibility of a new investor coming in to reduce his influence in the company of which he remains chairman. "Well, that is a possibility, we are talking to a couple of people. I've [also] got a lot of other interests that are going to go into it. You'll find out in due course, it's not finalised so we can't announce it." SCF chief executive Lachie McLeod last week said succession options included a new New Zealand-focused shareholder.

2. This high court ruling reported by the NBR's Chris Hutching appears to have ominous implications for the Retail Deposit Guarantee scheme. It seems to say interest payments should be made to debenture holders beyond the March 2 date of its receivership. 3. Chinese state-owned enterprises may default on commodity purchase contracts, Caijing.com reported, helping spark a heavy sell off on Chinese and other markets. If true, this would be bad news for Australia and, by extension, us.

China's state-owned enterprises may unilaterally terminate commodities contracts as they try to cut massive losses from financial derivatives, an industry source told Caijing on August 28. According to the source, China's State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) has sent notice to six foreign financial institutions informing them that several state-owned enterprise will reserve the right to default on commodities contracts signed with those institutions. Chinese SOEs have suffered massive losses from hedging contracts since the onset of the global financial crisis.

That's one way to deal with market movements you don't like: just default. 4. I watch a cantankerous US banking analyst called Chris Martenson closely. He dives deep into the detail of America's banks and always sheds light. In this post on Seeking Alpha titled the ' The Five Economic Horsemen' he paints a compelling picture of what might happen next.

I believe that a diminished standard of living is in the future for each of the major economies across the world especially those where the inhabitants have been living beyond their means. Another belief I hold is that any period of living beyond one's means must certainly be followed by an equivalent trough of living below one's means. For example, if you produce 100 but consume 110, then at some point you will need to produce 100 but only consume 90. I urge you to begin keeping a close eye on these five horsemen:

  1. New credit growth falls below interest payments
  2. The Fed monetizes debt
  3. Government deficit spending exceeds 10% of GDP
  4. The dollar goes down while interest rates go up
  5. US debt becomes denominated in foreign currencies

The current presence of three, or possibly four, of these signs has me thinking very carefully about my assets, my family's needs, and how we will manage the changes ahead. When the fifth horseman arrives, it will bring a new reality for all of us, and I intend to be as ready as possible.

5. Vanity Fair has an excellent, if long, piece on former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson and the dramas he went through last year. It includes interviews throughout the crisis. Here's a taste. HT Felix Salmon.

By this point in the crisis, Paulson was deeply fatigued"”"It wasn't the hours in bed. It was the hours I spent sleeping in bed!" he told me at one point when I asked him how much rest he was getting. He felt, he said, resorting again to a stock image from his repertoire, as if he'd been boiling in oil for a year. He was also increasingly frustrated. "As I look back"”and I'm a great second-guesser"”I would not second-guess any of these, because we did everything we've been able to do. But none of them have been sufficient."¦ We've been late on everything, because it just is the kind of thing"”it's just impossible to get ahead of with the authorities we have in particular. And I think I've been pretty consistent since I've been down here to say now we have a broken regulatory system, but we don't have the authorities and powers we need."

6. The 'too big to fail' banks in the US are getting even bigger, David Cho from the Washington Post points out. It's appalling, but before we throw too many stones from here in New Zealand, it's worth remembering that ANZ National has a balance sheet that's worth more than half of NZ GDP on its own. The other three, ASB, BNZ and Westpac, are each bigger in proportion to our economy than any of the US banks are to the US economy.

The crisis may be turning out very well for many of the behemoths that dominate U.S. finance. A series of federally arranged mergers safely landed troubled banks on the decks of more stable firms. And it allowed the survivors to emerge from the turmoil with strengthened market positions, giving them even greater control over consumer lending and more potential to profit. J.P. Morgan Chase, an amalgam of some of Wall Street's most storied institutions, now holds more than $1 of every $10 on deposit in this country. So does Bank of America, scarred by its acquisition ofMerrill Lynch and partly government-owned as a result of the crisis, as does Wells Fargo, the biggest West Coast bank. Those three banks, plus government-rescued and -owned Citigroup, now issue one of every two mortgages and about two of every three credit cards, federal data show. A year after the near-collapse of the financial system last September, the federal response has redefined how Americans get mortgages, student loans and other kinds of credit and has made a national spectacle of executive pay. But no consequence of the crisis alarms top regulators more than having banks that were already too big to fail grow even larger and more interconnected. "It is at the top of the list of things that need to be fixed," said Sheila C. Bair, chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. "It fed the crisis, and it has gotten worse because of the crisis."

7. In the wake of UBS' humiliation at the hands of the IRS, Bruce Krasting has uncovered this gem from an obscure Swiss magazine showing the Swiss government and banking industry appears to know that over a third of banks assets in Switzerland are 'black money' that have never been subject to tax. And to think there are some who would like to see New Zealand become the Switzerland of the South Pacific. Hopefully not former investment banker John Key....

The August edition of Swiss Review provides some insight. WhileSwiss Review is not the end all source of information on this topic their writing is not independent of the Swiss Government who provides a portion of the operating budget. With that in mind I was shocked to find the following in the August edition of SR: "Switzerland has become a paradise for foreign capital on which tax is not paid. The uproar from foreign governments is understandable." These are not the words of a critic of the banks, but of private banker Konrad Hummler. He says that around 30%, or CHF 1,000 billion (US$1 trillion) , of the CHF 2,800 billion or so of foreign assets in Swiss banks is untaxed "black money". Mr. Hummler probably knows as much about the topic of black accounts in Switzerland as anyone.

8. Satjayit Das, a favourite of this site, has posted again over at Wilmott on the issue of executive compensation. I agree with him and don't have a lot of sympathy for those who say CEOs deserve very, very large pay packets no matter what. Often they don't.

Concern about excessive pay also focuses on "˜allocation'; "˜who' gets "˜what'. Mark Twain once admitted: "I am opposed to millionaires, but it would be dangerous to offer me the position." For others, the issue is "˜proportionality'; a chief executive's reward is disproportionate to his or her contribution. Tight, in-bred circles of directors and consultants determine senior executive salaries. "˜Benchmarking' exercises merely reinforce the "˜norm' with packages being justified as "˜needing to buy the best talent' or "˜meeting the demands of a competitive market'. Results are also easily manipulated to meet specified performance hurdles for bonuses. Recent severance payments highlight that failure is better rewarded than success.

9. Jon Stewart made me laugh this morning. Nine of every 10 dollar bills has traces of cocaine. That's the only good news in America these days.

The Daily Show With Jon Stewart Mon - Thurs 11p / 10c
Good News/Bad News - America's Recession
www.thedailyshow.com
Daily Show Full Episodes Political Humor Healthcare Protests

10. We need some humour. The Onion reports that US unemployment projections improved drastically overnight after the fifth beer.

According to analysts, both long- and short-term forecasts showed signs of recovery between the third and fourth beer, but the fifth alcoholic beverage was the point at which the employment rate began to close in on 100 percent. Even in Michigan, home to the nation's highest unemployment numbers, fairly buzzed sources described a bright future for thousands of laid-off automotive workers and their families.

This video is a bit old, but still worth a chuckle. It butchers an already overused Elton John song. Not too much harm done then... HT Alex

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment in the box on the right or click on the "'Register" link at the bottom of the comments. Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making these comments.

The China-Commodity contract scare is

The China-Commodity contract scare is concerning. Without the sanctity of contract and rule of law certainty is lost it becomes very difficult to do business.

Presumably a default of this nature would be signed-off on by the higher echelons of the Chinese leadership? I am sure that the Chinese will be devastated if this causes a drop in commodity prices right at the time when they are trying to enter into long term commodity contracts?

Can someone ask SCF a

Can someone ask SCF a question for me, They intend to raise a lot of money,
'WHATS THE MONEY FOR' I think this is quite an important question.

A good article on Merril lynch

http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200909/bank-of-america

Quite right marky mark, just

Quite right marky mark, just the question many Americans are asking themselves having discovered contract law is what the USSA govt decides it will be.

Maybe you could watch Chris

Maybe you could watch Chris Martenson's own web site a little more closely...

http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/five-horsemen/26258

The post at Chris's website went up a day or so before the link you posted.

Plus it gives context as to why the report is dated May rather than August/September. The minyanville link doesn't give that context.

The link was paid content in May. Being released for wider reading now...

Many thanks Gibber. Yep. I

Many thanks Gibber.
Yep. I must try harder on this.
Do you think it changes the validity of his view?
cheers
Bernard

It will be interesting to

It will be interesting to see if the China commodity scare mentioned here will affect Fonterra's online milk auction tonight.

<blockquote> Do you think it

Do you think it changes the validity of his view?

No. Written in May. Still valid in September.

I enjoy your top ten links. It must be a pain when there is the odd nit picker out there like myself....

One advantage of looking at

One advantage of looking at something written back in May in September is you can make a judgment on the accuracy of the prediction in "real time"...I sometimes look at youtube for such older pieces, for instance Hugh Hendry, I saw an up to date piece with him in June and then went back looking at older pieces so see how he did....and Ive been following what of him comes up, ditto Peter Schiff, Jim Rogers, Nouriel Roubini and others...they carry weight for me as they are making pretty sound predictions....and the core of what they seem to see the fundamentals as screwed up....

regards

Gibber No worries. Blogging is

Gibber
No worries. Blogging is all about nit picking. The difference between mainstream media and blogs is that mainstream media have ADHD (attention deficit hyperactivity disorder) whereas bloggers have OCD (Obsessive Compulsive Disorder). OCD is a useful thing for digging up some truth.
cheers
Bernard

The whole Hubbard / SCF/

The whole Hubbard / SCF/ PGGW/PGCorp/MARAC crisis has big implications for many in the lower SI, so the journalistic digging is much appreciated.

And love that comment re

And love that comment re ADHD and OCD..........!

Chinese now play capitalist at

Chinese now play capitalist at own game yes. Report point to cancel contracts so price fall. In steps Mr Chinaman to buy now cheap. Prenty good fun. Must go and kowtow.

There is an interesting talk

There is an interesting talk on TED about employee motivation arguing that business needs to pay attention science. All the evidence to date indicates that employee bonuses do not work except in a very specific set of circumstances (anything that doesn't require thinking). Research typically indicates that bonuses actually *decrease* performance.

http://blog.ted.com/2009/08/the_surprising.php

Wally: interesting that they were

Wally: interesting that they were laughing at the west as they locked in prices claiming that teh west would suffer from increasing proces they wouldnt have to pay....now its been proved they were/are wrong, they walk away from contracts....effectively that makes them defaulters and bankrupt....so they should be prevented from making such forward contracts from now on. Anybody who is sensible should decline to take futures contracts off them in future....

regards

and Bernard this oe from

and Bernard this oe from the Herald.

Commercial property lowest returns (below), farm profits and land prices lowest, unemployment rising.

So everything around residential property is shrinking massively....what next?

NZ Herald.
Commercial investment property has posted its lowest returns in 16 years, according to the Property Council.

The organisation has released its index of returns, which measures the money being made on 327 properties in 14 portfolios worth $8.2 billion at the end of March.

It found CBD offices had a -5.2 per cent total return in the year to June. A year ago, returns were above 14 per cent.

"The main driver of negative returns was the continuing writedowns of property values in June valuations. At -11.6 per cent for the 12 months to June, capital growth for New Zealand CBD offices was the lowest recorded since 1993. Income returns have continued to offset capital losses, and have risen slightly to 7.2 per cent for the year to June," the council said.

Yer just gotta love this

Yer just gotta love this one too, where evidently some minion fergot to proof-read the Notes to the Accounts. And it made it all the way to Barry (Big Picture) Ritholtz. Surprise, NZ is involved...and fudge.

Mmmmm, fudge. Note to self: buy some on the next trip out of the cabin.

The unembedded link (embedding them seems to confuse many....)

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/08/who-said-creative-accounting-is-dead/

And for those into the

And for those into the free vs pay online media debate, this from Business Spectator:

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Fear-for-the-free-pre...

Both News Corporation and Fairfax are looking to charge for online content to provide extra revenue to maintain journalist staffing levels and profitability.

One of the difficulties the two major players face in charging for online content, however, is that the BBC in the UK and the ABC in Australia offer their material free.

This has lead New Corporation's James Murdoch to attack the privileged position of the BBC

Alex

I have been doing commodities

I have been doing commodities biz with China since the 90's. any contract that does not have "Ministry of Foreign Trade" logo on it is a potential default contract. Think you can get recourse from Chinese Courts?? drink a Tui instead....Now with the Chinese Goverment cutting back credit (most of which went into commodity speculation by state owned companies) what makes the Ozzies think they can grow rich just by digging the earth and shipping it to China ??

7. I don't know about Mr Hummler's fate, but Andy Xie from Morgan Stanley got sacked 24 hours after saying the same thing about Singapore...and he's not even working in Singapore !!

@Andrew J... why is SCF "what'sthe money for ??" Please Read ANZ "provision for bad debt" report....

Who is there to prevent

Who is there to prevent the same people from making forward contracts? It's a case of selling to the only buyer in town. On this score Beijing can easily control all steel producers when it comes to the price for ore, where as the aussie companies will be at each others throats. Rudd is waking up to the reality of having to learn to kowtow just so.

Well what a shock, quite

Well what a shock, quite unexpected, not the sort of thing a bloke would see happening.....almost every bank boss in Nigeria arrested on fraud charges....the ones they were able to catch that is. But at least we can have absolute faith in the Nigerian legal system, to know every effort will be made to prosecute the crooks and recover the stolen money, yeah sure.

Interesting TarrantAlex charging for news

Interesting TarrantAlex charging for news content is a great debate, however one thing they don't take into the equation is that "Passion is richer than deep pockets".

It's a tough tide to fight.

Alex : We are back

Alex : We are back to that hoary chestnut of state sponsership vs. private enterprise . Even online news content has costs . And is it fair that the BBC et al provide it " free " ( thankyou to tax-payers ) whereas News Corp , Fairfax , and their ilk must pay from market -place earned monies . On a similar tack , prison work programmes in the US were often critised for using cheap labour to compete with commercial firms in clothing and road maintenance . The unfair element being that behind the scenes the state is using a swag of the citizens taxes to pay for these free/low cost services , but not necessarily on a commercially funded basis . Largesse , cost blow-outs , and out-right corruption being affordable to the state .

I see the NBR your

I see the NBR your competitive blog site charges for some" NEWS", my perception of the NBR at nearly $10 per copy on Friday is adequate .The news items that are charged for have very few blogs,probably the reasons are ,why pay twice.

This'll get the economy moving...

This'll get the economy moving...

Prime Minister John Key and Wellington City Mayor Kerry Prendergast announced the collaborative project to invest in public spaces and celebrate the city's role as the capital city.

Ten projects were earmarked to be completed by 2015, the 150th anniversary of Wellington as capital city.

One is the replacement of traffic lights in Aitken St, near Parliament, so little green women instead of men will appear in the pedestrian lights. This is to highlight New Zealand being the first nation to give women the vote.

Only in Wellington. I just can't wait to get back down there to see all the exciting developments they are doing.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/2822746/Wellingtons-goal-Ten-projects-by...

Alex, the excitement will come

Alex, the excitement will come when you see the 7 digit bill to pay for the plastic insert and realise they used Helen for the profile.

Kin If they need it

Kin
If they need it to cover losses, isn't that just like throwing good money after bad,don't see a lot of investors lining up for that. I don't see anyway they will get the money if its just to fill a growing hole where a business used to be. In farming these finance companies arrived late and started lending after the rise in land prices and at substantially higher interest rates, they attracted farmers who where turned down by the major banks and they charged a lot for the privilege. I hadn't realised that SCF had so many second mortgages until the herald article, second mortgages in this market would be looking pretty ugly.

someone is bailing out, who?

someone is bailing out, who?

NZFSUL NZS.NZX 1 2.4% 41 41 44 43 41

$14,553,178 35,488,606 23

Agreed AndrewJ, the SCF details

Agreed AndrewJ, the SCF details were news to me too.

Second mortgages (I thought they were a thing of the past in farming!) on SI dairy farms - will be a worry, if they are a sizeable part of SCF's book.

There are a handful of Sthland & Canty dairy farms out there for genuine sale at present, and there will be a few more in the autumn. Values have held up well until now, though. Some falloff from the peak is certain, but rumours of a 30-40% crash are panic mongering.

Another cyclical downturn, just rather nastier than usual. The big banks seem to be sticking with most of their clients OK - lending figures show big rises.

This dairy season and probably next will be tight or lossmaking for most, and the highly leveraged few who are forced to sell will find it painful. But some upturn in the dairy market in 2010, and minor recovery in payout next season, will ensure most farms will survive.

Tussock, why do you see

Tussock, why do you see a return to higher prices for M powder, given the return to subsidies and the expansion in S America, I would have thought there might be a surplus of the stuff in 2010 and for a few years to follow.

BNZ reports $183 million loss:

Tussock Sorry to be the

Tussock

Sorry to be the bearer of bad news,we are in for a protracted period of reduced incomes. This could I believe extend into the foreseeable future. You have Fonterra on the sidelines with 11 billion odd $ of debt and you have record farm debt. ( from 10 billion 1999 to 50 billion odd now ) farm debt that manages to climb at about the rate of the interest bill on it . So profitability must be pretty sick. I dont believe many of these dairy farms stacked up very well in the first place,they where dependent on capital appreciation. The US$ looks likely to continue its fall until some sort of capitulation and removal as the reserve currency Im expecting a lot of volatility in the mean time.

This is a lock for

This is a lock for 10 @ 10.... unless you guys have done it already.
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/08/who-said-creative-accounting-is-dead/

c/oThe Big Picture.

Found the NZFSU seller http://www.nzx.com/markets/NZSX/NZS/

Found the NZFSU seller

http://www.nzx.com/markets/NZSX/NZS/

Mebbe its not ethical any

Mebbe its not ethical any longer. To keep losing money. In Uruguay.

http://olam.listedcompany.com/newsroom/20090901_125242_O32_682A9

http://olam.listedcompany.com/newsroom/20090901_125242_O32_682A96F3EC6C4...

Investment Rationale and Strategic Fit
The acquisition is in line with Olam's Dairy Products strategy, which includes
participation in dairy farming in low cost origins that will strengthen its market position in
the dairy industry and significantly raise its margin profile.
Like New Zealand, Uruguay has climatic conditions suitable for dairy farming. Capital
costs are significantly lower in Uruguay compared to large dairy exporting countries
such as the US, Europe, Australia and New Zealand. In addition, labour and other
overhead costs in Uruguay are significantly lower than these countries. In NZFSU's
experience, native pasture in Uruguay is highly responsive to New Zealand style
pasture management through the application of improved New Zealand's farming
systems, including increasing stocking rate by using high genetic worth cattle, improved
pasture species, more intensive maintenance and capital fertiliser application,
subdivision of paddocks to control pasture growth and water reticulation by creating
water troughs.
Olam's Managing Director and Group Product Head for Coffee and Dairy Products,
Vivek Verma said: "While Uruguay's current productivity levels are relatively lower, its
climatic conditions are conducive for Kiwi-style intensive pasture management.
Success in adopting Kiwi practices in Uruguay would result in a powerful combination of
low capital and operating costs with high productivity. Therefore, Uruguay and NZFSU
fit well with our stated ambition of participating selectively in the dairy farming value chain segment."

Those Singapore guys are smart they have noticed the advantage of low cost production,they wont be buying in NZ then will they.

No Andrew they wont. I

No Andrew they wont. I wonder how all those kiwis have got on in Oz. We exported rather a lot of talented dairy cockies. As time goes on all our great kiwi inventiveness will be used by farmers overseas. All those thousands of hectares in the eastern european countries that have been fallow for years, are now being brought into production. Some of Africa, South AMerica. Boy are we in for some competition. And little old NZ is at the moment the biggest exporter of dairy produce. NZ is tiny. Just imagine when these other countries ramp up production.

Thanks for comments, guys. You'll

Thanks for comments, guys. You'll notice that this is timed before the Fonterra auction!

Wally, the EU and US dairy stockpiles are significant, but far from the scale of 20 years ago. They will dampen any price recovery but the effect will not be huge.

AndrewJ - I am not making any excuses for Fonterra. It has better (and better paid!) PR people than my humble self. You may have noticed several puff pieces from otherwise sensible journos in recent days.

Serious opposition is building among farmers for the capital restructuring. They keep getting reminded of the 70 years of farmer ownership, touted of course as 'success'. Those who won't or can't move to the opposition are hardening their attitudes.

How Fonterra maneuvers around this one will be fascinating. But they really need the dough.

As for global markets, dairy operations in the US and EU are currently losing money at a terrible rate. Surprisingly, their current farm returns are not much above ours in NZ, maybe around $6/kg MS equivalent and with of course much higher costs. Support prices have been static for years, but until recently market returns have been good.

Now the support prices look miserable. Some US dairy operations are losing $100 per cow, per month, or $50k per month for a 500 cow herd, and EU farms though smaller are losing money on a similar scale.

So as those hardest pressed go out of business, it must reduce supply, and with luck the climb out of recession will improve demand. Let's hope!

But where the kiwi $ goes is anyone's guess. Fonterra must be tearing their hair out.

Re:8 I think the reason

Re:8

I think the reason executive pay is out of control is because institutional investors whom own the vast majority of the world's publicly listed companies couldn't give a toss and therefore don't use their majority voting power to do any thing about it.

Unfortunately, it is up to the minority "mums and dads" to do all the protesting which is enevitably defeated at AGM time.