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Top 10 at 10: Ralph Norris reopens Trans-Tasman banking regulation debate; 4 more years of Bernanke; Dilbert
Here are my Top 10 links from around the Internet at 10am. I welcome your additions in the comments below or please send suggestions for Thursday's Top 10 at 10 to bernard.hickey@interest.co.nz
1. CBA CEO and former ASB CEO Ralph Norris has called for a common regulator for Trans Tasman banking. Fran O'Sullivan reported in the NZ Herald that Norris made the call at the Australia New Zealand Leadership Forum in Sydney.
An Australian Government-led push for APRA to supervise Australian banks operating in New Zealand was shelved in 2006 in favour of the NZ Reserve Bank continuing to exercise this function under an enhanced information-sharing model, instead of concentrating solely on monetary policy like its Australian counterpart does.
But Norris said it was time to put the issue on the table again.
This debate, like the Anzac currency debate, is eventually all about sovereignty. Who controls our banking system? Is it us through the RBNZ or the Australians through APRA? Norris then goes on to suggest our regulators haven't done as well as the Australian regulators in the last couple of years.
He contrasts the situation in Australia, where APRA had learnt from financial debacles to ensure a strong supervisory focus, with the conditions which led to the collapse of the finance company sector in New Zealand.
"Most people knew the sector had real prudential issues - particularly around concentration issues and related party transactions - which led to the sector's undoing," said Norris.
Related Topics
It's unfair to blame the Reserve Bank for the finance company debacle, given the RBNZ was not the regulator at the time. The Securities Commission and a 'do nothing' Labour government can take the blame. The Australian regulatory scene is also not squeaky clean either. The various collapses of Opes Prime, Storm Financial and Timbercorp have happened on APRA's watch.
But Norris then goes on to point out the real politik of this issue. The crisis last year demonstrated that the parent banks in Australia were in control anyway because they pumped cash across the Tasman when the New Zealand arms couldn't raise cash on international markets.
"The Australian banks were effectively raising funds internationally and then transferring them to their New Zealand subsidiaries," Norris said.
"If New Zealand had a situation where its banking system was effectively stand-alone then I think the difficulties for the NZ banking system would have been very similar to what has happened in Ireland."
My view is any change like this should be an election issue and considered in tandem with a move to a single currency, a single stock market, more closely aligned tax rules and more aligned business regulation. I wrote a Dominion Post editorial strongly opposing a Trans Tasman regulator in 2006, arguing we should not give up our sovereignty.
My view has morphed a bit since then. New Zealand is now essentially in the hands of the Australian government anyway. Our debt binge of the last 5 years and our financial connections to Australia are so strong that we are effectively underwritten by Australian savers and the Australian government. The last 9 months of the crisis proved that. Should we simply formalise the informal and acknowledge the inevitable?
2. Blue Star Print Group has suspended interest payments on its subordinated capital bonds as part of a restructuring of its balance sheet and a rewrite of its covenants with creditors. This is all part of the delevraging process spreading around the world.
3. Thinks are looking ugly for Strategic Finance, which is already in moratorium. Its major project in Fiji at the Denarau Hilton has frozen and now it's in dispute with the developer, Kris Hall from The Press (Stuff) reports.
The beleaguered finance company, which last August froze repayments to 15,000 investors, has lent more than $70m to Auckland developer Neville Mahon.
Mr Mahon, who runs Lausanne Project Management and Denarau Investments, told BusinessDay that work on developing new villas and backroom facilities stopped four weeks ago when funding dried up.
"The development, right today, needs another $14 million to do the work that needs to be done. I've found the money. Bank of Scotland are supportive, Strategic are not. It's that simple," he said.
Strategic chief executive Kerry Finnigan said the funding crisis had materialised from a cost blow-out which the developer was supposed to remedy, but had so far failed; the terms of the $14m injection were unfair and against investors' interests.
"Neville's been quite selective with his interpretation. What his investor is wanting us to do is step away from our security position to allow that money to come in. We're not prepared to do that.
4. Anne Gibson from the Herald also reports on the imminent demise of the Fiji Resort.
5. Barack Obama has renominated Ben Bernanke for the Chairmanship of the Federal Reserve, Bloomberg reported. It's another sign that Obama is heading in the wrong direction and can't be changed, or more accurately, isn't really in control of his economic establishment.
6. Spain's banks are in an awful mess because of the implosion of Spain's property sector, according to this explosive report by variant perception titled: "Spain: The Hole in Europe's Balance Sheet". HT Felix Salmon
We argue that 1) the real estate crash in Spain is worse than is widely believed, 2) Spanish banks are hiding their losses, and 3) investors are smoking crack if they believe that Spanish banks are among the strongest in Europe.
Spain will soon have zombie banks like Japan. We believe that Spanish banks are not marking their real estate loans to market and are extending credit to zombie construction companies. They do this by 1) Getting a boost from accounting changes, 2) Not marking loans to market, 3) Continued lending to zombie companies, 4) Extending 40 year and 100% loan-to-value loans, and other bubble-like lending practices. We look at eachof these in turn.
7. Felix Salmon points out that not all Spanish banks are the same.
It's important to draw a distinction between Spanish banks in Spain, which are largely domestic savings banks, and Spanish banks as they exist in the imagination of the international capital markets (Santander and BBVA). Santander is a well-managed and internationally-diversified bank, which does retail banking extremely well. BBVA owns the largest bank in Mexico, Bancomer, and has built an extremely strong franchise stretching from Texas, through Mexico and central America, and down through the Andes. While neither bank will be immune to a national disaster in its country of origin, their international holdings will help to soften the blow.
At heart, however, the situation in Spain will be familiar to many US observers: consumers augmented their low wages by making huge amounts of money in a soaring property market. And now that the property market has stopped soaring, they're left with hundreds of billions of euros in loans, an enormous percentage of which will end up in default. The problem in Spain is exacerbated by the fact that much of the property bubble was concentrated in the beach-home market on the coast, where the willingness of homeowners to pay mortgages on underwater properties is much lower than historical data would suggest.
8. Former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker makes the interesting point in this Bloomberg story that money market funds weaken the US financial system. These funds are often run by investment banks and promoted a bit like term deposits here in New Zealand. They are supposed to invest in the safest type of bonds. Their near implosion in September because many had invested in AAA rated mortgage bonds was a major factor in the crisis.
"Banks remain the functioning heart of the financial system, and they are protected and regulated," Volcker said in a telephone interview last week from his New York office. "To the extent they have competitors that have different ground rules, kind of free-riders in my view, weakens the financial system."
Money-market mutual funds, which first appeared in 1971, have developed into a $3.5 trillion pool of cash outside of the regulated banking industry that provides short-term funding to thousands of companies and financial institutions at rates below conventional loans. Their pivotal role in the economy was highlighted in September when the collapse of the $62.5 billionReserve Primary Fund sparked a run by investors that in turn froze thecommercial-paper market and threatened to cut off thousands of borrowers.
Volcker has been a vocal advocate of imposing bank-like requirements on money funds, to the dismay of asset managers as they wait for the Obama administration to issue new rules for the industry. His proposals "would eliminate money funds as we know them," Paul Schott Stevens, head of the Investment Company Institute, a mutual-fund industry trade group in Washington, said in March.
9. Rolfe Winkler at Reuters makes the point that Bernanke's reappointment is bad, but his replacement with the man in pole position, Larry Summers, would have been worse.
If Summers was the only other option on the table, then I'm not so disappointed Bernanke is sticking around. That said, I think Fed policy under Bernanke has been terrible. The Greenspan interventions he supported inflated the largest credit bubble in 80 years; the de-leveraging that needs to happen to correct the damage has been delayed indefinitely by Bernanke's own interventions.
His supporters say he averted a second Great Depression. I disagree. He's merely delayed it. The liabilities of the financial and consumer sectors haven't gone away, they've merely been absorbed by the public balance sheet. This is as much Hank Paulson's and Tim Geithner's fault as it is Bernanke's. I'm not thrilled with their leadership either.
10. Morgan Stanley Asia Chairman Steven Roach makes a strong case in this FT.com against the re-appointment of Bernanke.
Barack Obama has rendered one of his most important post-crisis verdicts: Ben Bernanke will be nominated for a second term as chairman of the Federal Reserve. This is a very shortsighted decision. While America's head central banker deserves credit for being creative and courageous in orchestrating an unusually aggressive monetary easing programme, it is important to remember that his pre-crisis actions played an equally critical role in setting the stage for the most wrenching recession since the 1930s. It is as if a doctor guilty of malpractice is being given credit for inventing a miracle cure. Maybe the patient needs a new doctor.

The question is to what
The question is to what extent is the NZ govt taking instructions from the big four. Perhaps we are seeing the real reason why English and Key seem so indifferent to 'cheap homes' being unaffordable. The banks are in control, right Bill ?
First: Australian Banks whome all
First: Australian Banks whome all Kiwis love to hate but can't live without....My suggestion: Join Australia...surrender to the inevitable and try to enjoy it instead. We would have been part of OZ long ago if not for the fact our politicians just can't give up the perks that goes with "country" status (like trips to UN, APEC , 20 guns salute, etc)
We are already in all terms of reality a part of Australia...the rest like RBNZ, Parliament etc is just for show.
Second : Obama: He is a fraud, and has always been. Every since his election campaign, he says things everybody wants to hear...emphasis on the word "says".
Infact now I am labelling him the Manchurian Candidate for the US Financial and Political elite....nothing will change in the US except "perception of change". I have always held this position and now I am vindicated.
Third: Finance companies: If anybody still has hope of getting their money back...keep hoping and remember this : "Hope is a good breakfest but a poor supper" I don't know who wrote this but it seems very apt.
Well if that don't make
Well if that don't make it plain to all, "bollard's" total lack of injection then i give it up. geesus, THE ANSWER TO SOOOOO MANY QUESTIONS lies in the Pacific Agenda and we sit around on this site trying to solve N.Z. economic dilemas, while in the long (or Short) run the Aussies will decide what is good for N.Z.
And here to cut the shit.............. is how it stacks up.
J Key..........Ceo. N.Z. (flux pending)
A.Bollard ....Treasurer (redundant awaiting settlement)
B.English........Hatchet Man and bringer of the New.
and so on............
5. Totally agree with your
5. Totally agree with your comments on Bernanke , Bernard. He hasn't changed much with the banks. Have a look at this
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Remember-me-Wall-Street-apf-3302636311.htm...
Bernard, since you're used to
Bernard, since you're used to getting elbow-deep into disclosure statements, maybe you could dig a little further and report the real numbers on banks' funding from their ultimate parents (as opposed to related party funding which is largely about 'arranging their affairs', as our finance minister puts it, to avoid the approved issuer levy). Ralph Norris may be happy to perpetuate the myth of Aussie banks propping their NZ subs because his own bank (ASB) funds itself that way - it has several billion dollars of parent bank funding - but that amount didn't noticeably increase during the credit crisis. As for the others, if I recall correctly parent bank funding ranges from a few hundred million dollars to zero.
Miguel Very interesting. I'm on
Miguel
Very interesting. I'm on leave this week and will jump in next week
cheers
Bernard
Miguel I think the RBNZ
Miguel
I think the RBNZ table 4 has these details.
http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/statistics/monfin/c4/data.html
Funding from associates went from $50m in Sept 08 to $67m Feb 08 back to $56m July 09
Its hard to see what happened as the foreign funding didnt seem to go down.
All the Liablity increases seemed to end up as an increase in 'Other Assets', what ever that is.
More links: How long does
More links:
How long does it take to earn a big mac?
http://www.economist.com/daily/chartgallery/displayStory.cfm?story_id=14...
The adversaries in the universities: Krugman v Ferguson
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article6806419.ece
Neville, that's what I was
Neville, that's what I was thinking of - "associates" refers to funding vehicles, not the parent banks. I'm not entirely sure how those RBNZ numbers are prepared, but based on the timing of the highs and lows I'd guess that 'associates' measures unhedged foreign currency borrowing through the vehicles, and 'other' captures the mark to market value of the FX hedges, which are done separately.
Totally different issue, but I
Totally different issue, but I often glance at the "NZ$ Eurobonds issued" that Interest .co.nz updates to the left of these articles.
For each of the last 2 years shown, the volume has been consistently below the equivalent level of the previous year. However, I now notice it snaking upwards at apparently the fastest rate for the last 3 years, & cumulately looking like it might meet & pass the 2008 level.
So what is happening there, Bernard or Alex? More signs of green shoots?
I recently came across your
I recently came across your blog and have been reading along. I thought I would leave my first comment. I don't know what to say except that I have enjoyed reading. Nice blog. I will keep visiting this blog very often.
Margaret
http://grantfoundation.net
Philly - probably to do
Philly - probably to do with the fact that there's a lot more maturing this year that need to be replaced. I seem to remember the likes of Roger Kerr on this site crowing that July would be doomsday for the NZ dollar, with $3bn or so of bonds maturing... how'd that work out again?
Miguel : In all fairness
Miguel : In all fairness , many of us , including our host B.H. , got that one totally wrong . If you're gonna point the finger of failure at Roger Kerr , you may as well swing a 360 degree arch , and include the rest of us......Guilty as charged.....Ahem !
Well I called it at
Well I called it at the time, but I'm going to point a big fat finger at myself too, for not putting money on it... :(
Brian Fallow dropping a cat
Brian Fallow dropping a cat in with the pigeons on tax today in the NZHerald. This will have the feathers flying folks. Cop a load of gst on your mortgage interest because it's a service. He's right. You pay it on food and clothing, so why not the service provided by the thieving bank.
Yes, Fallow has opened up
Yes, Fallow has opened up another rort in the taxation regime that favours the sacred cow of housing. Add it to the WFF one, the LAQC one, the lack of CGT one, & the NZ obsession with housing becomes fully rational.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=1059...
I don't see the thieving
I don't see the thieving banks allowing John and Bill to bring in GST on mortgages Philly. It would cut into their potential profits by causing a drop in demand for product.
That would mean a cut in party donations! Jeeez, can't let that happen.
Wally ......could be your right
Wally ......could be your right about that. But I think the banks will decide that!! yes?