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Top 10 at 10: First Step 'mis-sold'; Looming finance company problem; Fonterra's debt issues; Dilbert

Posted in News

Here's my Top 10 links from around the Internet at 10am. I welcome your additions in the comments below and please send any suggestions for Tuesday's Top 10 at 10 to bernard.hickey@interest.co.nz There are no teamwork award programmes at interest.co.nz Just free instant coffee.

Dilbert.com

1. John Kidd at McDouall Stuart Securities writes in the Sunday Star Times that the government has a delicate task to exit the retail deposit guarantee without unnerving the finance company sector. He says uncertainty about the extension of the scheme beyond October next year is already putting a dampener of new lending.

How the Crown is able to unwind the scheme while ensuring minimal disruption to financial markets will be one of the government's key policy challenges over the next few months, and probably years. Irrespective of how exactly this unfolds, the ongoing silence from policymakers on how they propose to deal with the October 2010 expiry is already resulting in serious and increasingly urgent concern among lenders and those that rely on funding for their businesses.

If the current uncertainty continues, ironically it will be the guarantee scheme itself that ends up presenting a continuity threat to domestic credit markets and, ultimately, the speed with which the real economy is able to recover.

2. A Money Managers franchisee will allege to the Commerce Commission that Money Managers, controlled by Doug Somers-Edgar, mis-sold mezzanine loans to conservative investors, Rob Stock reported in the Sunday Star Times. Money Managers has denied the mis-selling. First Step made several large loans to interests related to Somers-Edgar.

Former Money Managers franchisee Martin Visser claims Money Managers' advisers were not kept properly informed about the loans that backed the First Step trusts or how risky they were, and were not sent prospectuses for the product, even when changes were made, of which they should have been aware.

Visser, who was given a loan from one of the trusts to buy a Money Managers' franchise and has been bankrupted as a result, says he has nothing now to lose from speaking out. In his complaint, he told the Commerce Commission: "Advisers were told that a key advantage of First Step was that, because of the nature of the First Step structure, a problem loan could not flow on from one deposit trust to another. This is how First Step was communicated by advisers to clients. Advisers pay a minimum of 35c per dollar earned to Money Managers for the latter to perform the appropriate due diligence and to market an investment in a clear and truthful manner.

"We were given the impression that there were four distinct mortgage trusts. It turns out that 40% of the book of investments was in two large and risky investments: Geotherm and Club Finance."

3. Rob Stock at the Sunday Star Times also reports that Boston Finance, which is in moratorium, has warned investors that its exposure to Blue Chip properties means its previous promise of repaying all the debentures will be difficult to achieve.

Boston's latest financial report in June warned its loan tie-ups with Blue Chip threatened even bigger write-offs. "Litigation is currently before the high court regarding the status of apartment sales made by companies within the Blue Chip group," it said. "A number of these apartments form the security for loans made by the company. Should the outcome of the litigation be in favour of the apartment purchasers, further impairment provisioning is likely to be required."

4. Westpac has matched NAB in Australia by slashing its fees for overdue accounts and dishonored payments, the Sydney Morning Herald reported. NAB's offshoot here, BNZ, did the same. Will Westpac do the same here? We suspect so.

5. Brian Gaynor has a detailed look at Fonterra's need for capital reform in his NZHerald column and concludes Fonterra needs external capital. However, Gaynor is a fund manager and no doubt would love to see the NZX include Fonterra. His comments on debt are interesting though.

As at January 31 the group had retained earnings of only $14 million and the other equity component of its balance sheet had a deficit of $602 million. This mainly comprised a negative cash flow hedge reserve of $825 million.

Thus, at the end of January, Fonterra had total interest bearing debt plus overdraft of $8213 million and total equity of just $3790 million. Although the co-operative had $751 million of cash and cash equivalents the debt to equity ratio is far too high, particularly as the share component is not permanent.

Fonterra's debt levels are a major concern in an environment where banks are cautious and already have full exposure to the New Zealand agriculture sector.

6. The American economy is as rooted as the poor Volvo in this video below. It has to be said. This piece on how to game the 'Cash for clunkers' scheme in America is frankly painful. Under the scheme, car owners hand in their old clunkers to a new car dealer and get a US$4,500 rebate on a new car. It has been a runaway success because it's one of the few bailout packages available to ordinary Americans. Over US$30 billion has so far gone to bankers in the form of bonuses. HT Anonymous

To qualify for the rebate the car dealer must then destroy the engine of the car so it can't be used again. Here below is the officially mandated instructions and demonstrations on how to destroy the engine.

So here we have the US government encouraging people to destroy the engines of otherwise workable cars so consumers can borrow more to buy cars they probably don't need. America believes it can be bailed out of its troubles. No wonder the Chinese are nervous about the US$1 trillion they have locked into a failing economy.

The prescribed and approved method of disabling a car according to law involves replacing the engine's oil with sodium silicate, more commonly known as liquid glass. When the car is run with a mixture of water and sodium silicate the liquid quickly evaporates and the solids are left behind, causing most of the oiled surfaces to seize and break.

As you can see in the video below, the results are fairly horrific. You can actually hear this car scream. In fact, if you watch all the way, you'll see it spout up its last bit of oil before it breathes its last breath.

7. Ric Toscano at Pacific Capital Associates points out the apparent easing of the slump in the US housing market in recent months may just be the usual Spring/Summer bounce and they may be much more to come. His chart is ominous. HT Juha

The price decline this time around has been substantially larger -- an outcome that was unsurprising based on the comparatively vast overvaluation of homes coming into the 2005 bubble peak. But while it may feel to some like this price decline has gone on forever, it has not yet endured nearly as long as the 1990s version.

8. US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner was doing the Sunday talk shows on the weekend softening up US voters for higher taxes to try to repay these monster deficits. the WSJ reported. This is the problem. At some stage living standards have to drop to account for the higher debts. There is no cost-free out of this. Bursting bubbles cannot be fixed with more hot air.

Speaking on ABC News's "This Week," Mr. Geithner declined to rule out tax increase for families earning less than $250,000 a year as a way to reduce the deficit. Asked if such tax increases were an option, he said, "We can't make these judgments yet about what exactly it's going to take and we're going to get there."

"We have to bring those deficits down. And it's gonna, it's going to be difficult -- hard for us to do, and the path to that is through health-care reform," he said. "But that's necessary but not sufficient. We [are] going to do some other things too."

9. Here's the next landmine to go off inside the US financial system. The New York Times has an excellent piece on an insurer called Capco that faces claims of US$11 billion but has just US$150 million to meet them. It wrote insurance policies that 'protected' big fund investors from failing institutions. Real Black Swan stuff. HT Felix Salmon

Capco, which is private, is something of a financial mystery. Its members include Wall Street giants like Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, banks like JPMorgan Chase andWells Fargo, smaller brokerage firms like Robert W. Baird & Company and Edward Jones, and Fidelity, the mutual fund giant. Capco was initially registered in New York but later moved to Vermont, where state law enables it to operate without disclosing much about its finances.

10. Barry Ritholz at The Big Picture points out about 1.5 million Americans are likely to 'exhaust' their unemployment payments, some of which are due to expire after 18 months or so.

Tens of thousands of workers have already used up their benefits, and the numbers are expected to soar in the months to come, reaching half a million by the end of September and 1.5 million by the end of the year, according to new projections by the National Employment Law Project, a private research group

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment in the box on the right or click on the "'Register" link at the bottom of the comments. Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making these comments.

Bernard : From the figures

Bernard : From the figures you quote, it would appear that Fonterrible is, to all intents and purposes, bankrupt. And as it is " too big to fail ", will eventually be bailed out by the Gumnut. Ergo they can add "The Peoples Dairy" to their dream portfolio of "premium assets" (M.Cullen) such as Kiwi-Rail, Air NZ, and Kiwi-Bank..........Hoo hah, we are saved ! Surely these ace assets will spin off enough dividends to pay the national debt........as "The Peoples TV Network" and "The Peoples Accident Compensation Commission " currently do.

Fonterra is a basket case,

Fonterra is a basket case, it's only a matter of time before the government intervenes - the rural vote is crucial for the NAT's.

Roger T....don't be silly! why

Roger T....don't be silly! why would the insolvent aquire the insolvent, unless a third party could aquire both at bargain basement prices?, and who would dooo such a thing?

And that was a really low blow about "The( dynamic) Peoples Accident Comp Con" I fear I have torn a gut muscle reading your post and must now seek thier wise council to qualify my position, and have myself declared unfit for laughter!!

Although no doubt constrained by

Although no doubt constrained by Obama's election promise on taxes am I the only one who finds Timmy Geithner's answer to the question of whether taxes will have to rise simply appallingly inept?

If even a simple statement that the Govt is going to have to raise taxes and cut spending in order to balance the budget is politically impossible. What chance of them actually doing it? Zero. In fact 'zero' doesn't do it justice.

America is going to default on its debts through inflation. No other way. It's politically unacceptable for Americans to take any pain to pay the Chinese their money back.

Too true marky mark. Going

Too true marky mark. Going to be dam good fun to see it happen. AE cars on the charge! and jeeez the amount of copper they need for those things. Oil running out too. Credit set to explode in cost. We sure are heading for one monster crash in Noddyland. I expect the youth exodus to be a flood.

6. Jesus, I'd give my

6. Jesus, I'd give my eye teeth for a car that looked that decent....its a clunker?

:(

regards

Not to worry steven, by

Not to worry steven, by 2020 you too will have a 'leaf' in the garage plugged into your solar panel roof.

Farm debt is more interesting

Farm debt is more interesting to me than Fonterra although Fonterra is well and truly sunk.
Farmers borrowed 600 mill in June interest on this is 60 mill , just for June. A good larger Dairy farm with 800 cows may make $250,000 after costs on about $7.50 to $8 a kg payout. So even if good times come back it takes four farms to earn a million and 240 to earn the interest just to meet commitments made in June 09. am I the only one who can see a problem here or is my logic flawed?. Every month income from another 240 farms in good times is needed to meet the interest just added that month. .

The Fonterra reportage is just

The Fonterra reportage is just preparatory to the vote on creating Fonterra Ltd. and listing it on the stock exchange. This means all Fonterra Co-operative assets and liabilities will be transferred to the new corporation. Farmers will receive stock in lieu of any payout so they can use it as collateral for more loans. Offshore interests will gain a controlling interest when, with each new financial crisis, ever more stock is sold. Every time Fonterra has to pay out on their bonds they will offer special swaps for shares. In 10 years Fonterra will have achieved their goal of turning over control to outside interests. Kiwi farmers will be share croppers working for wages. That is if some hedge fund doesn't buy the shares first. A shame. And this is just the start.

The only thing left that

The only thing left that farmers own of Fonterra is goodwill and Brands. Its hard to sell something that has no equity left.

This is hard to read,

If the directors are foiled

If the directors are foiled on their coup, look to see a payout of $3.55.

Brian should have noted that

Brian should have noted that Fonterra's January 2009 financial statements were not supported by an accountant's statement. The usual references as to how assets were valued in the financials were also missing. Even then most of the equity is represented by intangibles. So dairy farmers don't own the dairy factories you see flying Fonterra flags, banks and bondholders do.

Rather than assuming Fonterra is too big to fail, you could alternatively start from dairy farming being too important to be destroyed by Fonterra. The NZ dairy industry's milk processing assets aren't going anywhere, but they may need to be purchased again.

"However, Gaynor is a fund

"However, Gaynor is a fund manager and no doubt would love to see the NZX include Fonterra."

Does this explain the push for the recent SFF proposal from Gaynor and the significance of Richard Somerville an appointed director who became the deputy chairman of SFF proposal?

This was by FAR the

This was by FAR the most important piece published in the last wee while in NZ (via the UK's Independent) and yet its not being picked up.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=1058...

Peakoil trumps all other economic considerations yet it seems to be a complete blind spot to Bernard (and 99% of all other economists and other 'opinion formers' in NZ).

Wake up. Here is the head of the IEA (formally a fully paid up Peakoil denier) admitting the odure is in the process of hitting the fan. What's it going to take?

Andy Bad news out of

Andy
Bad news out of the USA they increased Dairy support,this is a big deal for Fonterra dont underestimate what is going to happen in NZ.

SPECIAL NOTICE: USDA this morning announced the support prices for nonfat dry milk and cheddar cheese
will be increased effective August 1st, for a period of 92 days, ending on October 31st. The announcement
preceded the close of the CME spot markets, and the cheese and powder prices responded immediately.

Note : USDA's
announcement included an estimate that they expect the higher support prices will cause CCC to buy an
additional 150 million lbs of nonfat dry milk and 75 million lbs of cheddar cheese this year. It will be interesting
to see if today's announcement affects prices for whole milk powder in Fonterra's next auction next Tuesday.
THE GOOD GUYS WIN ONE: (By J. Kaczor) This past week may have marked the peak of a remarkable
long drawn out campaign of political activity by the dairy industry. In this sense, the "industry" includes a
number of cooperatives, trade associations, support organizations, lenders, and thousands of individual producers
who took the time to call, write, or visit their elected representatives and those holding high offices in
Washington, D.C., and "campaign" does not in any way suggest a well-planned, coordinated, parade of paid
lobbyists. Instead, imagine something like thousands of angry and fed up dairy farmers marching on
Washington. It wasn't exactly that, but in a sense, it was like that. Milk Producers Council is proud to have
participated in the effort. The single, most recurring, message given by almost everyone over this time was
the need for immediate and significant measures to help U.S. dairy farmers survive the current industry
financial crisis.
One of the clearest and most consistent points contained in that message was the amount of losses being incurred.
It's astounding. Various numbers have been mentioned, depending on the size of producer, region of the country,
and on how much feed is home grown, but the average might be around $100 per cow per month. [According to
California Department of Food & Agriculture's cost auditors, the average loss per cow per month in California's
Central Valley in the first quarter of this year, with no allowance for return on investment or management fee,
was $96.00.] If $100 is a fair estimate, that means close to a billion dollars of losses per month for U.S. dairy
farmers was occurring since January, while corn, wheat, and soybean farmers have been living large. It
looks like that point may have finally registered in the minds of many, perhaps most, of your elected representatives and key people in the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

I missed the Last page

I missed the Last page

The focus of much of this week's lobbying in Washington was centered around Tuesday's third meeting of the
House Agricultural Sub Committee on Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry. That hearing was a small but important
part of the total effort. Long before, during, and after the hearing, stories of financial ruin were being told
throughout the country. Some kind of "critical mass" may have occurred which finally got through. It got to the
point where a good number of members of congress and U.S. Senators were doing the talking and the walking.
The first, but not the last immediate and significant help came today, as reported in the report that lead
today's MPC commodity comments. Considering the fact that Secretary Vilsack estimated producers will benefit
by a total of $240 million from the 3 month support price increases, it is obvious from the above estimate of
losses that are occurring a considerable amount of additional help is urgently needed. Next week a review of
some of the other good and useful proposals will be made, along with some that could be labeled as nibbling at the margins.

I think this will get Fed farmers on the blower to the PM, they will be in line behind Van der Haden and the Banks. It is a very unfortunate happening. I suspect the USA is about to dump all surplus milk out of its system with disastrous effects on the world milk markets. This may have the signal the dollar was waiting for.

"imagine something like thousands of

"imagine something like thousands of angry and fed up dairy farmers marching on
Washington. "

Yes, and tractors being driven up the steps of parliament in Wellington.

Is this news being reported in the "mainstream" media?

Fonterra's next globaltrade auction is today or tonight. What effect will this news of more protectionism have?

Trev Its not just Protectionism

Trev
Its not just Protectionism its also an increase in prices paid to produce product in the USA, expect them to increase production on this news or at least maintain.

Yes, good point. I had

Yes, good point. I had fixated on the lobbying aspect. Where was this reported?

It appears wise to hedge

It appears wise to hedge one's hedge.