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Top 10 at 10: Reassurance on dairy debts?; Stocks slide; Mish on deflation; Roubini's W shaped recession; Dilbert
Here's my Top 10 links from around the Internet at 10 am. I welcome your additions in the comments below. I plan not to fail.
1. The S&P 500 fell 3.1% overnight after the World Bank forecast the global economy would contract 2.9% this year, which was more than its 1.7% forecast previously, the WSJ.com reported. Is this the beginning of the great retracement? 2. The banks have reassured the government that they can handle any problems with high debt levels in the dairy industry, the NZHerald reported.
Carter yesterday acknowledged that the pressures that prompted that meeting had intensified since then, "particularly around cash flow in light of the reduced payout Fonterra has announced". "However the banks were telling me there's a high degree of resilience and farmers are now in the process of looking at their cost structures and very actively managing those." Carter said the message from the banks was consistent with what he was hearing from farmers and others in the sector, "and it wouldn't be consistent with some of the more extreme comments that have been in the media recently".
3. Here's some of the recent comments on our website from readers about what they've seen in the dairy sector. Not sure if they are extreme. There are certainly a lot of them. We have 80 comments on the post at this time of writing. 4. Meanwhile in America, dairy farmers are slaughtering their herds to cope, Jeff Wilson reports in the NZ Herald.
Farmers are culling herds because exports plunged 26 per cent in the first four months of the year, supplies rose and the cost of corn, the primary feed ingredient, averaged almost US$4 a bushel. "No one is making money producing milk," Wells Fargo's Swanson said by telephone from Minneapolis. "The milk price remains well below the total cost of production."
5. Just when we thought the biggest mining takeover battle was over (Rio Tinto v BHP), Anglo American has rejected the US$69 billion merger deal presented by Xstrata, WSJ.com reported. 6. The world's biggest university endowment fund (Harvard) has let its bond fund manager go after it lost 30% of its value and Harvard had to quickly sell assets to avoid a cash crunch, WSJ.com reported. 7. This is a couple of days old, but worth linking to still. Mish at GlobalEconomicAnalysis points to some Federal Reserve figures showing the size of the hole blown in the US financial system and why this points to deflation rather than inflation.
Think consumers are about to go on a spending spree after a massive US$13.87 trillion collapse in net worth? Think banks are going to start lending with this employment picture and household debt? I don't and boomer demographics makes the situation even worse. Don't forget the bleak employment picture. There is no source of jobs. Those who get hyperinflation out of this picture must be reading the playbook in Bizarro World because it sure is not the playbook here.
8. There's an interesting discussion over at Calculated Risk about the Wealth Effect (on spending) from the collapse in US house prices. Rodney Dickens sees a very clear correlation in New Zealand over at this excellent piece on our site. 9. Nouriel Roubini thinks the risks of a W shaped recession are growing in this Op-Ed in the Taipei Times.
First, confidence and risk aversion are fickle, and bouts of renewed volatility may occur if macroeconomic and financial data were to surprise on the downside "” as they may if a near-term and robust global recovery (which many people expect) does not materialize. Second, extremely loose monetary policies (zero interest rates, quantitative easing, new credit facilities, emissions of government bonds and purchases of illiquid and risky private assets), together with the huge sums spent to stabilize the financial system, may be causing a new liquidity-driven asset bubble in financial and commodity markets. For example, Chinese state-owned enterprises that gained access to huge amounts of easy money and credit are buying equities and stockpiling commodities well beyond their productive needs.
Related Topics
10. For those with decent broadband connections here is The Onion's story on the US trading its gold reserves for cash. Ah...it's not true...
So either we have hyper
So either we have hyper inflation with the Nouriel Roubini outcome as hinted at in the final paras above or we get deflation entrenched Tokyo fashion. One has the value of cash being destroyed and the value dollar denom assets rising, while the other leads to cash being worth heaps more as assets decline in dollar val. Take you pick. Just don't expect overpriced property to somehow explode in a deflation produced price rise when the unemployment % is heading for 10. Remember, it will be closer to 20% for the young, those who might have thought about saving for their own property.
My bet is the BoE and the FED will move the earth on its axis to cause inflation and then lose control of the fission event.
8: I find calculated risk's
8: I find calculated risk's piece very interesting.....ppl extracting 20~30cents on the dollar rise in their house value.....and it is / was probably worth 2.3% of GDP every year....
So the GDP is higher but its not on the strength of actually making anything......then when you look at the UK, its economy has been propped up by oil, plus a large financial industry which was? 20%? of GDP....now its decimated....(similarly for the US?)
So as an aside if we look at NZ, are we really that un-productive or are other OECD countries displaying inflated figures? based on slight of hand? Given NZers are supposed to be good workers and sort after abroad to then be told in the next instance that we are worse workers if in NZ does not on the face of it make sense IMHO....
Thsi comment, Farmers are culling
Thsi comment,
Farmers are culling herds because exports plunged 26 per cent in the first four months of the year, supplies rose and the cost of corn, the primary feed ingredient, averaged almost US$4 a bushel.
Does not show up in corresponding beef Kill data, and as yet the price of our beef into the USA appears to be unaffected by an increased cow Kill. A large increase in Cows Killed would expect to show up in the form of Collapsing beef prices in this market.
I guess we knocked them out of China.
Surely Mr Carter blew a
Surely Mr Carter blew a great opportunity to "talk down" our over inflated dollar concerning some dairy farmers struggling to pay the debts on their farms.
Steven I agree, the doomers
Steven
I agree, the doomers and downers on the NZ economy don't have a clue, As I have said there has been a lot of hand wringing over the effects of the current crisis but if you are a subsistence farmer in Africa I don't think you will notice. The G8 will suffer because they are industrial empires, We on the other hand are fringe dwellers watching the fall of Rome (remember the fall of Rome wasn't bad for everybody)
Equally the story about the slaughter of dairy herds in the US could be 'spun' as a near term upside for NZ, after all how many NZ farmers feed their cows corn?
Neven
Re #7: "Hyperinflation, or even
Re #7: "Hyperinflation, or even strong inflation predictions in the near term look rather silly in the face of this data unless one is only looking at the printing and not the destruction in credit."
Thank you!
Re Steven @ 10:45am. Good question. Global GDP has been supersized by the temporal transfer of consumption (i.e. bringing it forward from the future) via credit.
There's a problem in general with GDP. As Warren Buffett points out, you can make bombs and drop them in the ocean and technically increase GDP but you're not exactly doing anything productive.
"Bernanke must reassure market about
"Bernanke must reassure market about rate strategy" This article out this morning in The Age au, explains why there is a much greater chance of the inflation situation coming about.
Wally : gotta link to
Wally : gotta link to that "Age" article ? Cheers.
http://business.theage.com.au/business/bernanke-must-reassure-ma
http://business.theage.com.au/business/bernanke-must-reassure-market-abo...
re: #7. In a country
re: #7. In a country where people are willing to sign up for 700% interest on a payday loan - The answers to Mish's questions are yes and yes.
Re #7: as well -
Re #7: as well - don't you just love the way Shedlock put's it out there. This earlier post of his is a must read as background to the above link:
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/05/case-against-fed-and-...
Sample:
"The central point in a free market based banking system is to avoid violations of property rights. However, the current system of 100% fractionally reserved banks allows money to be created out of thin air robbing savers, by making those savings worthless over time. A pernicious effect of this system of permanent inflation is that it creates malinvestment and large boom-bust cycles that destroy wealth.
The Fed is a failed institution. Fannie Mae is a failed institution. Freddie Mac is a failed institution and fractional reserve lending is a fraud.
The correct policy decision is to abolish all of them, not to add layer after layer after layer of regulators watching over other regulators, who in turn watch over still other regulators, where some "god-like" super-regulator at the top supposedly has infinite wisdom and knows exactly how to regulate."
Steven - your comment: "Given
Steven - your comment:
"Given NZers are supposed to be good workers and sort after abroad to then be told in the next instance that we are worse workers if in NZ does not on the face of it make sense"
In general (and I stress that) the people who travel overseas to live and work will be more motivated, better educated etc. So the Kiwi's working overseas are more likely to be more productive.
neil c - well said
neil c - well said sir.
Regards David Carter in Ref
Regards David Carter in Ref #2:
I would certainly hope so. The main way for dairy farmers to reduce costs is to reduce their high marginal cost production. That is going to help, but won't make high debt farms profitable. So lets come back to what the banks and farmers are going to do. Which is?
Again, what are farmers and others in the sector saying? Why doesn't he tell us what they are saying? Presumably similar to what is in this thread:
http://www.interest.co.nz/ratesblog/index.php/2009/06/19/big-problems-wi...
If Carter is saying that
If Carter is saying that there is no financial problems with dairy farms - watch out, denial is always the first step in the ensuing fall.
About Mish on deflation.... No
About Mish on deflation....
No one talks about the western worlds "social welfare systems".
Social Welfare might act as a cushion to deflationary forces..
People on Benefits are still "Consumers" with consumer spending ability.
I think that this will help mitigate the vicious cycle that deflationary forces can exert....
It means that Governments will run REALLY large deficits..
SO... my personal view is that once this deflationary credit implosion is over... then inflation and rising long term interest rates will be the next big issues.
cheers
Roelof