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Top 10 at 10 past 10: 'Debt saturation'; A 'mancession'; Trade war chatter; Dilbert; Jon Stewart
Here are my Top 10 links from around the Internet at 10 past 10. I welcome your additions and comments below or please send suggestions for Tuesday’s Top 10 at 10 to bernard.hickey@interest.co.nz Thank goodness we don't have a photocopier at interest.co.nz
1. 'Debt saturation' - Nathan's Economic Edge is very excited about what he calls the Chart of the Century. It shows the marginal GDP created from each extra dollar of debt added to the US economy and how it has reached 'saturation point'.
In the third quarter of 2009 each dollar of debt added produced NEGATIVE 15 cents of productivity, and at the end of 2009, each dollar of new debt now SUBTRACTS 45 cents from GDP.
This is mathematical PROOF that debt saturation has occurred. Continuing to add debt into a saturated system, where all money is debt, leads only to future defaults and to higher unemployment.
2. Germans won't budge(t) - Chancellor Angela Merkel has again downplayed expectations that Europe could agree at a summit on Thursday on a bailout package for Greece, FT.com reported. She slung the cats into the pigeon nest late last week by seriously raising the prospect of Greece going cap in hand to the IMF rather than the rest of Europe.
In a Sunday morning interview on German radio that appears to put her at odds with José Manuel Barroso, president of the European Commission , she insisted that no money has been asked for by Greece, and no decision had been taken.
She said the subject was not even on the agenda for the summit of European Union leaders that opens in Brussels on Thursday.
Related Topics
3. 'Euro fire brigade' - The IMF is throwing its weight around inside Europe. IMF head Dominique Strauss-Kahn has called for Europe to have its own 'fire brigade' to deal with failing multi-national banks.
European Union-wide authority to deal with failed banks is needed to strengthen the region’s post-crisis banking system, the head of the IMF, Dominique Strauss-Kahn said in a speech on March 19.
Speaking to a European Commission conference in Brussels, Strauss-Kahn said existing schemes for dealing with failed cross-border banks have proved inadequate. As a result, national and cross-border bank failures have been difficult to handle effectively and have been costly for governments and taxpayers.
“Europe needs a fire brigade,” said Strauss-Kahn, to extinguish banking problems when they erupt, and intervene when things get out of hand.
4. 'We can't help' - The drums are beating in the United States for trade sanctions against China and now not even the US corporate lobbyists think they can turn the tide. Things must be serious. Here's the FT.com on the growing trade war chatter.
The US business community can no longer resist political pressure for Washington to take a tougher stand against China on trade issues, according to a senior figure from the US Chamber of Commerce.
Myron Brilliant, senior vice-president for international affairs, who has previously helped to protect Beijing from hawkish trade policies, told the Financial Times: “I don’t think the Chinese government can count on the American business community to be able to push back and block action [on Capitol Hill].”
5. Year of the spike - Nouriel Roubini says in this PBS video interview (that I can't embed) he reckons 2011 could be the year global bond vigilantes push up longer term interest rates.
I expect that long-term bond yields in the U.S. are going to remain low because growth is going to be weak. You'll have deflation. You'll have bouts of risk aversion. The Fed is committed to keep zero rates. The Fed might do more QE. The rest of the world is buying and accumulating reserves to the rate of $1 trillion annualized to prevent their currency from appreciating. That's going to U.S. Treasury, and for the first time in a decade, we have some domestic financing of the U.S. fiscal deficit because savings have gone up, so we don't depend on the kindness of strangers.
Given all that, I don't expect bond yields to spike for the time being, but if after the election, we're a divided government, we have run-away fiscal deficit. It may have to monetize them, then at some point even in the U.S., the bond market vigilantes may wake up the way they did in Greece and UK, around Europe and then you could have a spike in rates. That's a 2011 story, not this year.
6. 'It's a mancession' - The global recession has hit men harder than women, the OECD points out on its blog. Try out the tool below to check out NZ and other countries. You can click around inside it. NZ is slightly 'mannish' but not as much as others.
Across the OECD area, the number of men in employment has fallen by 3% during the recession; among women, the decline is just a tenth of that, or 0.3%. That’s why some people are calling this a mancession.
Why the difference? In large part it’s because men are more likely to work in sectors of the economy that are more prone to job losses during a typical slowdown – for example, construction and manufacturing of things like cars, TVs and kitchen appliances. During this recession, these sectors have been particularly hard hit: In particular, there’s been a sharp fall in construction in countries like Spain, Ireland, the United Kingdom and the United States. By contrast, job losses have been less severe in services, where women are more likely to work.
7. Stern treatment - Here's the Sydney Morning Herald on the treatment in prison of Rio Tinto executive Stern Hu . It's not pretty. China is often an ugly place to do business.
STERN HU and his three Chinese colleagues have spent most of the past nine months sitting upright or sleeping on a communal board, wearing orange DayGlo uniforms, in the Shanghai Detention Centre in Pudong. Each shares a cell with about a dozen others but otherwise they have been kept in near isolation.
''Our chief research analyst left because of that case,'' said a manager at one of the world's larger commodities trading firms in Beijing. ''And our junior researchers will no longer go out for karaoke nights with officials from the [National Development and Reform Commission] to find out what's going on. We just don't have the market information flow that we did before Stern Hu.''
8. 'Crippled growth' - Nouriel Roubini has a nice overview in Project Syndicate on the problems facing many developed economies. The only way out now is higher taxes, lower consumption and slower growth.
At the end of the day, resolving private-sector leverage problems by fully socializing private losses and re-leveraging the public sector is risky. At best, taxes will eventually be raised and spending cut, with a negative effect on growth; at worst, the outcome may be direct capital levies (default) or indirect ones (inflation).
Unsustainable private-debt problems must be resolved by defaults, debt reductions, and conversion of debt into equity. If, instead, private debts are excessively socialized, the advanced economies will face a grim future: serious sustainability problems with their public, private, and foreign debt, together with crippled prospects for economic growth.
9. Policing failure - Brian Gaynor has a useful piece in the NZHerald detailing the history of Strategic Finance and how regulators failed investors. A former Equitcorp director sold Strategic some stuff at a high price at one stage...
Unfortunately most of these deficiencies have been evident for a long, long time - and have resulted in large investor losses in the past - but successive regulators and governments have done nothing to address these problems.
The unwillingness of these organisations to set some basic principles regarding investment products, and then police these principles, is a national disgrace.
10. Totally irrelevant video - Jon Stewart impersonates Glenn Beck. Stand back. It's loud.
| The Daily Show With Jon Stewart | Mon - Thurs 11p / 10c | |||
| Conservative Libertarian | ||||
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29 Comments
In other news, epic win
In other news, epic win for Net Neutrality in OZ!
http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/in-depth/attorney-general-michael-atk...
Re #9 <i>* Finance companies
Re #9 * Finance companies paid high dividends, even in 2007 and 2008, and many of these were paid out of new investor deposits because finance companies had large operating cash deficits due to the capitalisation of interest and fees.
Surely that's pure ponzi?
I can't believe our company law allowed such 'creative accounting' - great way to get existing investors to sink further deposits into the schemes - pay them "dividends" using their own money!
Unbelievable - BG is right in his end comment - the situation is a national disgrace - non of the higher up regulators that allowed this to happen should still be employed. Not unlike the leaky homes crisis - government is culpable - and perhaps even complicit.
@ Kate. "Creative accounting"? Theft
@ Kate. "Creative accounting"? Theft is a better word for it.
Fairs fair Kate...the useless bums
Fairs fair Kate...the useless bums responsible for the leaky homes idiocy had to get work somewhere!
edit edit edit Fair's fair.....
edit edit edit
Fair's fair.....
system 7 no edit...bleep bleep bleep
The clowns in Washington are
The clowns in Washington are voting to spend more of Beijing's wealth on Yanky health! Here a Bill there a Bill everywhere a bloody Bill....and Beijing Joe will get the bill.
From the Gaynor article "The
From the Gaynor article
"The majority of Strategic Finance's property loans involved the capitalisation of interest, with payments of interest not due until the end of the loan term".
In other words Strategic Finance was reporting interest and fee income that was not received. This is consistent with the country's accrual accounting standards and with other property-orientated finance companies."
Quite right Kate - pure Ponzi. The massive dividends paid to the Strategic Shareholders where almost entirely paid from new investors funds. Hopelessly unrealistic provisions for loan impairments and questionable valuations gave the illusion of profitability and it worked till it didn't.
How is this differant to Madoff? So this is legal in NZ?
God help us!
Ha Ha Ha so what
Ha Ha Ha so what should we really expect from our goverment departments??
Do we really expect them to do real work...like protecting the citizens who trust them from harm?...other than raising more and more rules and regulations and extracting more and more taxes and fees that is.
I would like to repeat the analyst who blew Madoff scheme to the SEC (who did nothing about it)
DO NOT TRUST THE GOVERMENT. If you do then you have only yourself to blame.
About China and the US coming trade wars...it's like the drunk blaming the bartender for getting him drunk.....I wouldn't have drank so much if he hadn't given me so much even though I kept pestering him for it....If he had only refused me the credit ....So it's all his fault.
Get your safe deposit box handy or your safe hole in the garden.....there is going to be a lot of Gold and Silver to stash away soon.
@#9 I don't think regulators
@#9
I don't think regulators filed investors in the Strategic Finance caper...investors need to learn to rake responsibility! If investors did their proper due diligence and learned what they were investing in then Companies like "Strategic Finance" wouldn’t have the seed capitol to operate in the first place. I don't want my tax money going to help stupid investors!!
Anyone who has tried to
Anyone who has tried to read the financial statements for banks and finance companies in recent years will agree with you that both reporting standards and many accounting policies are a nonsense. It is virtually impossibke for a layperson to make head or tail of them.
In respect of the Ponzi allegation - the standard model used for funding property development projects in New Zealand over the past 20 years has been to capitalise interest and fees during the course of the project and realise this income on completion. The rationale for this approach is that the capital costs of these projects are significant and therefore beyond the scope of most developers to fund.
This finance model is robust, subject to good credit practice being adhered to. The issues we face today in both this sector and the wider economy are wide and complex - inflamatory allegations like 'ponzi' are simplistic and don't do justice to the multiplicity of causes to the problems.
Captain Caveman, <i>the standard model
Captain Caveman, the standard model used for funding property development projects in New Zealand over the past 20 years has been to capitalise interest and fees during the course of the project and realise this income on completion.
Yes, fair enough - but would you not say therefore, that to pay dividends prior to completion as a means to attract (more) investment is a ponzi practice?
We are talking dividends here - not interest on investment.
Well I guess the boys
Well I guess the boys from those expensive schools need to get their money from somewhere now don't they? If the regulators got too harsh they might not make it and that would be a disgrace (for the upper classes) now wouldn't it?
@ Wally re. China funding
@ Wally re. China funding Yanky health and indeed the US standard of living at artifical levels. Good point. It is a fasinating situation. The Chinese are caught between a rock and a hard place. They are funding the US deficit and in return getting worthless pieces of paper. However, they continue down this track on the basis of their desire/need to keep the Chinese masses employed and to stop them from revolting. It will be interesting to see what happens when the US imposes trade sanctions, which looks increasing likely. This model is unsustainable economically, socially or environmentally and will soon implode. I guess my fear is what China will do with its masses when they are not in factories producing cheap goods. History proves that war is an excellent way to deflect domestic attention and to keep the masses busy. My gut feeling is that China knows its current model will not last much longer and is trying to push it into an end-game.
Can't believe you actually included
Can't believe you actually included the bit about Stern Hu, you might make us think that we are better off with USA ruling the world rather than China.
But a little thing like that won't change our point of view, we are all utterly convinced that the USA is crumbiling (the faster the better etc), and China is going to create a better world for all out of the ruins.
Yeah right.
Kate - "Yes, fair enough
Kate - "Yes, fair enough – but would you not say therefore, that to pay dividends prior to completion as a means to attract (more) investment is a ponzi practice?"
Good point.
The answer to your question depends upon whether the Directors of the various entites belivied that both their business model and their various projects were sustainable.
In 2006 and perhaps even 2007 there was probably good grounds for a reasonable Director to argue that it was.
Remember the biggest impact in the local market has been global events from mid 2007 onwards. Could such a Director have foreseen the sub prime crisis, the collapse of Lehman's and other such events. There is plenty of evidence on this web site alone that these events are of an unprecendented scale in most of our lifetimes.
Fat chance Kiwidave...better hope some
Fat chance Kiwidave...better hope some aliens arrive with a taste for wool and a ship full of gold. This is ponzi paradise mate. Now send me some money.
@From the Sidelines. Yep, 99%
@From the Sidelines. Yep, 99% of the stuff that you read on here will all become a bit irrelevant when the Chinese Government starts killing people. (Of course, they already do a bit of this, but mainly in their own country...and Tibet.)
"their need to keep the
"their need to keep the Chinese masses employed and to stop them from revolting. "
Indeed.....it looks like a mutual death grip at times.....both sides (USA and China but indeed its wider) did nothing to temper this, thinking they were infallible....oh have they been proven wrong.
The Q is, where are we going to end up....from all angles it looks ugly IMHO...I cant see US un-employment improving, they have nothing to make, make it from and no one to buy it...so I cant see but they are seriously screwed....Their Pollies are now taking steps to ensure MAD....
China is sort of marginally better, but still have no one to buy....
Its a serial chain issue, any link failing means they fail....
Ultimately when you look back at it, its clear there was huge risk of huge impact (and I think its in-evitable), but it was ignored. Truly, IMHO have we been failed by those we voted into power part of which their job is to look after our National well being....
regards
@TumteTum: "Chinese Government starts killing
@TumteTum: "Chinese Government starts killing people." how long do you give them? 6months? 2 years?
and will it be only china? lots of other countries are in a big mess also....every day without fail it looks worse.....it feels like we are falling slow motion into a meat grinder....
regards
Captain Caveman, I guess (hope)
Captain Caveman, I guess (hope) it will all come out in the wash but I believe that the level of impaired loans, delays in settling and incomplete projects prior to the GFC was far higher than the finance companies admitteed to publicly and in their prospectus.
My father is one of Strategics victims, he was getting regular requests to extend prior to 2008. Despite my best efforts he's on the hook for $750k. Please excuse my "inflamatary" ponzi allegations but if you could see the personel devastation caused by these lying scumbags, I'm sure you'd understand.
<i>The answer to your question
The answer to your question depends upon whether the Directors of the various entites belivied that both their business model and their various projects were sustainable.
I still don't quite buy that. My idea of good business practice, would suggest that one only approves/pays dividends out of profit derived from income/cashflow - certainly not from income derived through borrowings.
These directors in my mind failed in their fiduciary obligation to unsecured creditors in particular - company law has been breached and prosecutions should follow.
@Steven. Between 6 months and
@Steven. Between 6 months and 2 years I reckon...
Probably right about other countries too, lots of scope for 'radicals' (read Hitler, Mussolini, Saddam) in many countries currently.
@TumTeTum: hmmm...I suspect the speed
@TumTeTum: hmmm...I suspect the speed of it when it finally happens will be unbelievable....Kinda like the World trade centre attack, wake up one morning to watch total insanity taking place in front of you. I think you can push things to "the edge" and as long as you pull back to give yourself a margin, so anything bad happening you have a chance, now I think we are kept up against the edge and stuck there....you cant run like that, not for ever sooner or later you get caught.
regards
Kate - I believe that
Kate - I believe that many businesses and not just in the finance sector have paid dividends either based on 'profit' or out of retained earnings (but not cashflow) including, over the years, some of our listed entities.
This in itself is not a bad thing to have done. Whether or not it was the right thing to have done in the circumstances I agree, with the benefit of hindsight, is a fair question.
The NZ property market today looks vastly different to the same market in 2006 and it is not necessarily easy or fair to judge all the participants with the benefit of the aformentioned hindsight.
Kiwidave - I have a great deal of sympathy for your father's situation. I was simply saying, that if its appropriate, blame the people directly involved and not necessarily the model or all market participants.
@TumTeTum "Lots of scope of
@TumTeTum
"Lots of scope of radicals". I agree. I also believe that populist democracy is devouring itself and the inability of Western governments to make the hard decisions will ultimately result in them losing power. The Govt's (including those in NZ) are orchestrating a massive generational shift of wealth and are creating in intollerable burden for the younger generations. As history porves, weak democratic leaders who failure to address issues, open the door for hard-line dictators. This includes NZ.
Today Greece.....tomorrow Noddyland! ""The Greek
Today Greece.....tomorrow Noddyland!
""The Greek economy has entered a vicious circle with only one way out: the drastic reduction of the deficit and the debt," the central bank said in a report submitted to parliament on Monday"(the age)
Our turn next folks.
Wally right on the nail
Wally right on the nail again.....
Item #1 is a very
Item #1 is a very important chart.
For those who do not see why, I suggest reading Nathan's article. IMO the conclusion is profound and inescapable.
Well done Bernard for posting it as #1 :)
It is a terrible state
It is a terrible state of affairs, I really cant see us coming out of the red within the next 10 years, based on that chart.