In this section
Offers for readers
Follow the news from interest
The comment stream
Recent comments
- 1 of 20830
- ››
Editors choice
- 1 of 295
- ››
Finance sector jobs
Lead from the front utilising your strategic, technical and leadership qualities within th...more
New Zealand
Lead from the front utilising your technical expertise in this highly attractive senior li...more
New Zealand
Customer focus, high performance, exceeding client expectations and achieving profitable g...more
New Zealand
Key leadership position in the bank. Be a part of one of the fastest growing banks in New ...more
New Zealand

The news stream
Latest news
Most commented
- Govt eyes NZ$1.4b revenue grab 63
- English defends current account blowout 61
- 90 seconds at 9 am 51
- Budget 2012 reactions 45
- Friday's Top 10 with NZ Mint 39
- Thursday's Top 10 with NZ Mint 38
- What covered bonds mean for ma and pa 32
- 'Next 5-10 years make or break for NZ' 27
- Westpac and ASB change rates down 26
- 90 seconds at 9 am 22
Most viewed
Investing report: Who will pay when the game of 'Pass the Debt Parcel' ends?
Watch on our video page here.

Watch on YouTube here.
Bernard Hickey delivers an Investing Report in association with BNZ, including a look at who will pay when the global game of 'Pass the Debt Parcel' finally ends.
Through 2008 and 2009 governments around the developed world effectively took defaulting debt off the hands of private companies and individuals such as banks and some large companies, and put it on the balance sheet of governments. That seemed like a clever strategy at the time as it avoided 'Financial Armageddon', but all it has done is postpone the eventual repayment of the debt and in some cases increase the eventual cost.
Investors are now asking whether sovereign states may default or be forced to radically increase taxes and/or cut public spending to ensure they do not default. The best examples of this public imposition of financial pain is evident in Ireland and Greece where public salaries and essential services are being cut.
The best and first example of what may happen when the giant game of pass the parcel comes to an end is being played out in Iceland. An Icelandic bank effectively defaulted on its obligations in late 2008, forcing the Icelandic government to take over its obligations. It owed British and Dutch savers 3.5 billion euros and they now want their money back.
Initially the Icelandic government simply assumed that taxpayers would be happy to foot the bill from this private company's debt, but a virulent opposition campaign forced a referendum this weekend on whether taxpayers were happy to take on a debt that will cost each taxpayer US$135/month for the next 8 years. Not surprisingly, the voters said no and now the Icelandic government are renegotiating with their creditors.
This example nicely crystallises the choices faced by governments and taxpayers. Do they force shareholders and debt holders to take the pain now in the form of massive wealth writedowns, or do they spread the pain out over a larger group of people over a longer period of time in the future?
The best current example of this happening in New Zealand is the current move afoot for the New Zealand government to help guarantee the bailout of owners of leaky buildings, who can't afford to reclad or rebuild their homes. They also cannot afford the time or the money to take their complaints through the courts to recover money from developers, architects, buildings, building materials manufacturers, local councils or the central government.
Related Topics
So the government is considering effectively transferring the private liability of a few to a public liability of many, aiming to spread the pain out over a larger number of people over a longer time period.
Eventually, this cost will be paid for. The question is when and by whom? The other question is around the fairness of transferring private liability to the public sector? The ultimate danger is that our creditors will question the fundamental ability of New Zealand Inc (both the private and public sector) to service and eventually repay its foreign debts, which are set to top 110% of GDP within 4 years.
25 Comments
Congrats Bernard, you nearly came
Congrats Bernard, you nearly came close and you didn't even look like you were nervous.
The question is, is this all by accident or by design?
Before the innocent taxpayer doles out a cent, the shareholders of suppliers of the time, Govt regulators, architechs, inspectors, valuers, builders should have been removed of every cent of profit they gained from occasions they never fulfilled their contractual or legal obligations, no just changing names and carrying on their merry way, every trust they are involved with cracked open, these commercial pyramid scams have been going on far to long and far to easily for long enough in the land of the Sheoples.
At the end of acceptance of overt slavery in the British Empire(1830) Trusts and Corporations came to the fore, Trusts for the wealthy to hide their income, Corporations for the wealthy to be able to commit commercial frauds and leave the consequences behind.
Oh but that would mean
Oh but that would mean a whole new beaurocracy to manage the process Iain and the end cost would exceed buying them all new homes. BH is right to question the ethics of the govt on this. We are close to being called the little Greece in the Pacific.
Whatever votes the Cabinet smells coming their way from such a bailout would be swamped by fears of having to call in the IMF for a sovereign bailout. Make no mistake..that is what we face if English doesn't end the madness and get on with doing what the Irish and Greeks have discovered is necessary. The sooner he starts the better.
We have resources, we have
We have resources, we have labour, all we need is money to put resources and labour to work, great opportunity to issue Kiwi sovereign dollars without interest attached as part of our monetary base, thus restore the value of part of our asset base that most would be deemed to big to fail, wise up, cut out the foreign financial middlemen and their predatory loans, the precedence for this has already been set in this country, it is the obvious solution, the Kiwi sovereign dollars spent into circulation interest free backed by the assets they would reinstate could then be used to pay down foreign debt, not increase it?
http://publiccreditorbust.blog.com/2009/02/20/the-cheapest-interest-rate...
Keynes advocated the same, but the "Chicago Way" monetarists butchered his ideas
http://publiccreditorbust.blog.com/2009/12/13/keynes-post-war-public-cre...
Somebody tell me why not?
Wally, you said "Make no
Wally,
you said
"Make no mistake..that is what we face if English doesn’t end the madness and get on with doing what the Irish and Greeks have discovered is necessary. The sooner he starts the better."
what? subjudicate your peoples into real slaves, man, Im starting to think you have sado-masocist anarchy fetish, that or you turned out to be a co-operative of the private incorporated investment bankers after all?
It's simple Iain...don't spend more
It's simple Iain...don't spend more than you earn...the lesson that needs to be drummed into the thick skull of every politician and taught to all the little children. If we as a nation did that simple thing..in time we would pay off the debts and be a creditor nation..a nation that saved more than it spent.
not under the current international
not under the current international monetary model Wally, just like the odds in a casino, it is mathematically rigged in favour of the house. Name me a nation in the supposed developed world that the tax system, not the wealthy individuals, but the commoners tax system is not in deficit to the private incorporated investment bankers, otherwise refered to as the Central Banks?
Leaky homes are not the
Leaky homes are not the best example, the Government Guarantee of all the financial institutions is a far better one.
Or do you think Bernard, that the provisions being made in the government books for these pending failures will never be used?
Wow.................. what a nice Topic,
Wow..................
what a nice Topic, And your title is also too cute.Such as I really like it, And hope that It may be liked by everyone.
============
jon
In physics circles, we wondered
In physics circles, we wondered whether there would have to be a general debt forgiveness. Or whether you would find you Nat Bank mortgage in the hands of a Mongolian warlord (slavery or death?)
If forgiveness, what would anything be relatively worth?
If you knew it was coming, you'd hock your propter.
With the Iceland example, every
With the Iceland example, every person (or taxpayer). in their country owes $15,000 pounds. And for what?
Why should a private bank with private investors be able to socialise the problem. I understand the people of Holland and England ~ the depositors, wanting some answers but they had what? 20 different banks that they could have put their money in.
The depositors made a bad mistake, the English and Dutch governments made an even worse one when they guaranteed the deposits and now they are knocking on the door of the Iceland people - why should they compound the bad decisions?
A bit sad, I put
A bit sad, I put forward a real viable alternative with precedence to boot and not one of the supposedly more financially literate members of society that inhabit this website even bothered to check out the evidence, no wonder we attract commercial pyramid scammers to this nation like moths to a light:
http://www.interest.co.nz/ratesblog/index.php/2010/03/08/investing-repor...
Kate You are quite right.
Kate
You are quite right. The government has already made provisions for losses on the finance company guarantees of over NZ$750 million. I think it will be used.
The scale is smaller than Iceland, but just the same we are seeing private debt being socialised.
cheers
Bernard
We are going down the
We are going down the same road as Greece and only our relationship to China via Rudd is delaying the end. This is the gamble Key's motly lot are prepared to run in exchange for greater certainty of winning in 2011. Goff's stupid lot are no different.
If there is trouble in Beijing, Rudd goes under and drags us with him. That is the game.
A proper Government with a statesman at the top would stop pandering to the media photographers and watching the poll results. A statesman would cut a path away from debt and that would mean most sectors doing hard time on less. It would mean ending the friendship with the banking buddies and chopping the top off the bloated salaries handed out to old men in the state sector. It requires a real effort to reduce govt splurging, to end the borrowing and to accept that the property ponzi scheme is doing serious and most likely fatal damage to the whole economy.
Sadly, Key is not a statesman and Goff is not even in the frame.
One of the problems -
One of the problems - if not the main one - is that we have traditionally not accounted bankruptcy write-offs with natural capital. Until someone accounts natural capital correctly, and tracks depletion/degeneration of same properly, the 'debts' will continue to be sheeted home/accounted.
Failure to address that, is the same as the ducking-and-weaving re climate change, and it's potential costs. In essence, we are discussing the interface between selfishness-via-denial on the one hand, and what we pass on to our kids, on the other.
Instinctively, I don't want to get relatively 'poorer', and resent these silly selfish decisions, made by others.
On the other hand, it means, clearly, that I'm part of an immature society - one which has you to address the real issues. I guess that costs me .
The litmus test for us being a mature society, will be when the underlying goal is sustainability, not growth. It's that simple.
All you have to do is ask: "will our grandchildren thank us?"
Great, Bernard. So if we
Great, Bernard. So if we accept that taxpayers are already committed to bailing out finance company investors - the interesting question is whether people generally believe it is more ethical, or more economically sensible, or whatever to bailout leaky home owners as opposed to finance company investors?
These are the opinions/thoughts I'd be interested in. I know it seems a futile debate, given the government has already committed us in favour of one investment type - but the question is a worthwhile one from a moral perspective.
Well, this is democracy is
Well, this is democracy is it not ??? We vote for what we want, not for what we should.
As long as somebody else pay for the bill. (even if it's my own grandchildren) i am all for it !!...So what if i was greedy and put my money in Hanover ?? If the Goverment don't bail me out, I will vote tham out and the next politician who promise me my money I will put him in power...that's how democracy works.....
If i buy a building (even knowingly that it has a huge potential of leakage) and has to repair it, I will vote for the goverment that will help me pay for it !!
This is a sign of a Democratic society according to Alexender Tyetler.
This is Democracy !! Maybe it should be spelled DEMO CRAZY.....
@ Kin. Agree - the
@ Kin. Agree - the problem with Western society is that we have had it too easy for too long and successive Govt pampering has created a bail-out mentality. i.e. someone will bail us out. Hence why the Greeks are pushing for the Germans to bail them out rather than taking the pain of reduced Govy spending. Retirement at 60yrs in Greece - that is criminal. As Bernard corerctly points out, this is pass the parcel. And we are running out of people to pass it to.
The basic principal of a free society is: you are free to do whatever you want, provided you accept responsibility for your actions and face the consequences.
This must be harsh, but bailouts of finance companies and leeky homes goes against this basic premise.
Kin, despite popular academic analysis
Kin, despite popular academic analysis - I don't think most people vote based on a direct correlation to 'what's in it for me?'. If one looks at the last national election - I think Clark's Government lost on a far more general judgment - people got tired of the overall moral direction she was taking the country. That overarching 'nanny state' label was I think the most detrimental aspect of Labour's campaign.
The alternative 'what's in it for me?' argument would conclude that National won based on it's promise of broad and significant tax cuts.
More fool the population if indeed they 'won' on that - because that isolated "promise" has most certainly not come to pass - quite the opposite in fact, the only talk I've heard is about how to raise taxes (albeit with a Clayton's 'but-we'll make sure no one is worse off' twist).
Yes we want individual responsibility
Yes we want individual responsibility (when we come out better for it) and we want to socialise our losses (if we can avoid paying), not complex, we have become selfish, inwardly focused and don't give a cr@p about our fellow country men unless it is in our interests and someone else pays.
THis game is one of ever decreasing circles, which requires a quantum shift to move away from, i.e. responsible government that should have had the foresight to avoid the leaky homes crises, etc etc where is the wisdom to guide as opposed to knowledge to blind.
John, good question; <i>where is
John, good question; where is the wisdom to guide as opposed to knowledge to blind.
I read a paper by the State Service Commission on what makes a good policy analyst - and it stated that knowledge of the method of policy analysis was more useful than knowledge of the particular industry in which one was working.
This is the root of our regulatory problem - regulators are in control of the hiring decisions for regulators - and they have prioritised the knowledge of bureaucracy as being more important than the knowledge of industry. Industrial knowledge is gained through life experience on the front line. Would seasoned builders, as opposed to seasoned bureaucrats) have approved these products and methods - I think not.
Kate, as you said Labour
Kate, as you said Labour lost because of their "Nanny state" posture....would they have won if they had promised tax cut or enhanced benefits ? Perhaps they might not have lost or maybe at least loose less ? In the end people vote for "what is best for them"
with the assumption that "them" is same as "everybody".
I once has a friend who voted for labour in the 2003 elections because "Labour gave me more money" via "working for family" despite being a staunch Christian and Labour just pushed through "pro-prostitution" policy. In the end the pocket wins. I am of the position that most voters think the same way enroute to the ballot box.
As for National present "do nothing" position...why ?? because they cannot advance on "Tax benefit" as opposed to "cutting spending". Why is John Key always emphasising "Revenue Neutral"? To convince voters that thye will not loose any benefits with a National goverment.
Kin - correct me if
Kin - correct me if I'm wrong but I don't think there was a general election in 2003. Wasn't it 2005? And wasn't WFF introduced by Labour during mid-term in 2004?
Did Don Brash campaign on a promise to get rid of WFF - I don't think so. I think his flagship campaign platform was the "Orewa Speech" - the iwi/kiwi campaign.
So actually your friend went into that election with WFF in place - and so probably didn't vote based on purely that issue.
We should not forget that
We should not forget that the Building Industry Authority (BIA) should have some responsibility for the Leaky Home problem as they oversaw the regulations that allowed this form of construction and also compounded the problem by permitting the use of untreated timber on exterior framing. The crown law office have fought tooth and nail to ensure that they don't get dragged into this whole sorry saga.
The now-defunct BIA - another
The now-defunct BIA - another quango;
Building Industry Authority (BIA)
The former independent Crown entity established in 1992 to manage New Zealand’s building legislation. Dissolved in 2004, its functions have been incorporated into those of the Department of Building and Housing. Archived BIA publications such as BIA News are available in the Department’s publications archive.
So, whose crony mates were on this Board at the time that these crap building regulations were implemented? That would be a great list of names to have a look into!
Can any-one tell me do
Can any-one tell me do Australia have a leaky home problem as they also used Hardies and Polystyrene Monolithic cladding systems and also used untreated timber for framing etc.
And if so what measures they have undertaken to remedy