The comment stream

Join the Interest community to be a registered commenter so you can:
- Edit your comments
- Avoid the CAPTCHA
- Vote on comments
Register Here

Already registered? log back in here ..

Forgotten your password? No problem! Click here

Finance sector jobs

Senior Liability Underwriting Manager
Lead from the front utilising your strategic, technical and leadership qualities within th...more
New Zealand
Senior Liability Product Underwriter - Product Management
Lead from the front utilising your technical expertise in this highly attractive senior li...more
New Zealand
High Performing Senior Liability UnderwriterHigh Performing Senior Liability Underwriter
Customer focus, high performance, exceeding client expectations and achieving profitable g...more
New Zealand
Head of Retail Credit -Wellington, NZ
Key leadership position in the bank. Be a part of one of the fastest growing banks in New ...more
New Zealand
efinancialcareers.com

Reader poll

Should you fix your mortgage now or stay floating?

Choices

Top 10 at 10 to 12: Hanover's 'cosy' deals; Ponzi schemes; China tightens; Dilbert

Posted in News

Here are my Top 10 links from around the Internet at 10 to 12. I welcome your additions and comments below or please send suggestions for Tuesday day’s Top 10 at 10 to bernard.hickey@interest.co.nz We welcome insubordianation at interest.co.nz

Dilbert.com

1. 'Smiling like cats' - Rob Alloway tells the Sunday Star Times and Radio Live's Sunday Business (which I contribute to) all about how Hanover's Mark Hotchin forgave the personal guarantees by some of his developer mates for loans that were then sold to Allied Farmers a few days later.

One personal guarantee was for more than $20m and the other for "several hundred thousand", Alloway said.

He said there was no commercial reason he could think of for doing it, particularly for such a large portion of Hanover's loan book. He said it smacked of "looking after your mates before you jump off the ship".

"Some of these things we did not know about until after [the deal was done]," Alloway said. "We called those two borrowers in, and they were smiling like cats."

Alloway said he believed the relationship between finance companies and some borrowers had been too cosy. "I think this is more of a systemic thing that has been running and is not just associated with Hanover, but other finance companies as well."

2. Just Ponzi schemes - Brian Gaynor let rip in the best possible way in his NZHerald column on Saturday, arguing regulators were asleep at the wheel in allowing finance companies to operate like Ponzi schemes.

Related Topics

The Companies Office, Securities Commission , accounting profession and independent directors were asleep at the wheel as many investors lost a major percentage of their life savings.

Owners of these finance companies, particularly Mark Hotchin and Eric Watson, are still issuing woefully inadequate investment statements and prospectuses as they continue to borrow money from the public. Why are these businessmen still able to raise money from the public without fully disclosing their involvement in failed companies?

He refers specifically to FAI Money.

New Zealand has minimal investor protection with the exception that public issuers must fully disclose all important issues. This is based on the premise that investors can then make fully informed and rational investment decisions.

In light of this, why have Hotchin and Watson not been required to disclose in the FAI offer documents that they made a complete hash of Hanover Finance and have caused considerable hardship and financial distress to individuals who invested in that company?

3. China tightens in a new way - This is a story that appears small, but may appear larger when looking in the rear vision mirror. China plans to nullify all guarantees local governments have provided for loans taken by their financing vehicles as concerns about credit risks on such debt surges, Bloomberg reports.

The Ministry of Finance will also ban all future guarantees by local governments and legislatures in rules that may be issued as soon as this month, Yan Qingmin, head of the banking regulator’s Shanghai branch, said in an interview. The ministry held meetings on the rules on Feb. 25 with regulators including the China Banking Regulatory Commission and the People’s Bank of China, Yan said March 5.

China’s local governments are raising funds through investment vehicles to circumvent regulations that prevent them from borrowing directly. A crackdown on local- government borrowing, estimated at about 24 trillion yuan ($3.5 trillion) by Northwestern University Professor Victor Shih, could trigger a “gigantic wave” of bad loans as projects are left without funding, Shih said this month.

“Beijing’s fiscal situation probably isn’t as good as it looks at first glance,” said Brian Jackson, an emerging markets strategist at Royal Bank of Canada in Hong Kong. “Perhaps at some stage the central government is going to have to bail out the banks or the regional governments and take it on its own balance sheet.”

4. China resists - China appears to be giving the rest of the world the fingers over the rest of the world's demand for China to let its currency appreciate to fix some of the imbalances in global trade and capital flows. Here's the New York Times on the latest comments over the weekend from the big Chinese political congress, which the whole world should be watching closely.

At a Saturday news conference, the central bank head, Zhou Xiaochuan, said China should be “very cautious” about revaluing its currency, also known as the yuan, as long as major economies remained mired in slow growth.

He called China’s practice of pegging the renminbi to the dollar a “special foreign exchange mechanism” made to respond to the world financial crisis. Such mechanisms will be abandoned “sooner or later,” he said, but “we must be very cautious and discreet in choosing the timing.”

China had allowed its currency to slowly appreciate against the dollar until late 2008, when world economies sagged under the weight of the United States banking and securities collapse. Most economists say the Beijing government acted to maintain the price advantage of Chinese manufactured goods, a linchpin of the Chinese economy, at a time when exports were drying up.

Now that China’s economy remains robust and its exports are recovering, Western governments have pressed Beijing to stop keeping the renminbi artificially low. President Obama and others say the Chinese currency policy helps keep Chinese exports cheap but depresses competing economies that cannot match the artificially low prices.

On Saturday, Mr. Zhou offered no timetable for allowing the renminbi to resume its rise against the dollar, but he noted that it could take two or three years for global export markets to recover from the financial collapse.

Dilbert.com

5. Aspergers hero - I have a couple of close family members who have a few wonderful quirks that qualify them as having Aspergers' Syndrome.  This story from Michael Lewis in Vanity Fair is a great (if long) read on how one exceptionally bright and introverted neurologist managed to out-research Wall St and be ready for the sub-prime debacle before anyone else. HT Troy Barsten via email.

People with Asperger’s couldn’t control what they were interested in. It was a stroke of luck that his special interest was financial markets and not, say, collecting lawn-mower catalogues. When he thought of it that way, he realized that complex modern financial markets were as good as designed to reward a person with Asperger’s who took an interest in them. “Only someone who has Asperger’s would read a subprime-mortgage-bond prospectus,” he said.

Dilbert.com

6. Simply unsustainable - The US Congressional Budget Office has warned that Barack Obama's forecasts for budget deficits underestimate the true size of the problem, Bloomberg reports. America is bankrupt. At some stage the world will work this out and force Obama (or whoever is in power at the stage) to cut its cloth to fit. Maybe even American voters (the teabaggers at least) might force him to do it.

The nonpartisan agency said yesterday the deficit will remain above 4 percent of the nation’s gross domestic product for the foreseeable future while the publicly held debt will zoom to $20.3 trillion, amounting to 90 percent of GDP by 2020. By then, interest payments on the debt will have quadrupled to more than $900 billion annually, the report said.

Deficits between 2011 and 2020 would total $9.76 trillion, the CBO said. Economists generally consider deficits topping 3 percent of GDP to be unsustainable because that means government debt is growing faster than the ability to pay back the money.

7. The bond vigilante - The world's biggest bond investor, Bill Gross at PIMCO, has some interesting views in his latest newsletter on where the world might go. He is particularly concerned about governments who choose to print and spend. His comments should serve as a warning for all governments and voters. Sovereign debt is no safe haven any more and we should not be so complacent about simply borrowing more to fix our problems, even leaky building problems.

Shaking hands with the government was a brilliant strategy in 2009 when it was assumed that governments had an infinite capacity to leverage themselves.

But what if they didn’t? What if, as Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff have pointed out in their book, “This Time is Different,” our modern era was similar to history over the past several centuries when financial crises led to sovereign defaults or at least uncomfortable economic growth environments where real GDP was subpar based on onerous debt levels – sovereign and private market alike. What if – to put it simply – you couldn’t get out of a debt crisis by creating more debt?

Government bailouts and guarantees such as those evidenced and envisioned in Dubai and Greece, as well as those for the last 18 months with banks and large industrial corporations across the globe, suggest a more homogeneous “unicredit” type of bond market. If core sovereigns such as the U.S., Germany, U.K., and Japan “absorb” more and more credit risk, then the credit spreads and yields of these sovereigns should look more and more like the markets that they guarantee. The Kings, in other words, in the process of increasingly shedding their clothes, begin to look more and more like their subjects. Kings and serfs begin to share the same castle.

An investor’s motto should be, “Don’t trust any government and verify before you invest.” The careful discrimination between sovereign credits is becoming more than casual cocktail conversation. A deficiency of global aggregate demand and the potential impotency of policymakers to close the gap are evolving into a life or death outcome for the weakest sovereigns, with consequences for credit and asset markets worldwide.

8. Double Dip - Nouriel Roubini is now warning of a double dip recession in the United States. The full article is for subs only - HT Colin via email

A slew of poor economic data over the past two weeks suggests that the U.S. economy in 2010 is headed for – at best – a U-shaped recovery. The macro news, including data on consumer confidence, home sales, construction and employment, actually suggests a significant downside risk even to the anemic 2.7% growth which RGE forecast for H1. With the positive effects of the historic levels of fiscal stimulus due to fade this year, the U.S. faces at best a 1.5% growth rate in H2, which looks too close for comfort to a tipping point of a double-dip.

9. Totally irrelevant picture - This is my office setup. Just kidding. Some day trader has a thing for multiple screens.

10. Totally relevant video - Stephen Colbert is thrilled about Europe's economic decline.

The Colbert Report Mon - Thurs 11:30pm / 10:30c
Greece's Economic Downfall - Scheherazade Rehman
www.colbertnation.com
Colbert Report Full Episodes Political Humor Skate Expectations

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment in the box on the right or click on the "'Register" link at the bottom of the comments. Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making these comments.

43 Comments

Some may find this interesting.

Some may find this interesting. Read the conclusions in the pdf report associated with this article:

'A licence to print money: bank profits in Australia'

http://apo.org.au/research/licence-print-money-bank-profits-australia

So where does that leave NZ?

@ 9 ZOMG! I love

@ 9

ZOMG!

I love multiple monitors (I have 3) but that is ridiculous...BTW I’m pretty sure that the first 10 monitors (both top and bottom) form the left are all one large screen! Is he tracking it by the nanosecond?

Speaking of tea baggers, here is the picture of the day! [SFW]

http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2740/4313654518_4ba670009c_b.jpg

...tea bagger has a couple

...tea bagger has a couple of meanings btw

Troy - do you keep

Troy - do you keep them under plastic covers? Just kidding :)

@Fairfax I know...that is why

@Fairfax

I know...that is why i love that inhered that name.

There are even different categories depending on what you’re most upset about:

Chocolate Bandit Mask Tea Bagger – Tea baggers who are mad that Obama has given the banks any bailout monies

Dirty Sanchez Tea baggers – Tea baggers who think immigration is killing America

Donkey Punch Tea baggers - Tea baggers that are Democrats that feel Obama lied about ending the wars in both Afghanistan and Iraq.

@Powerdown LOL!! no...two are actually

@Powerdown

LOL!! no...two are actually 24” Widescreen HD computer monitors and the third is my 1080p 50" Plasma...everything is controlled via a server and I can find files ether through my main PC or though one of (3) Xbox 360's around the house all networked together.

All those signals are first

All those signals are first going through the master mainframe owned by GoldmanS!...I wonder why....

Male, Jewish Tea Bag.....Hebrew?

Male, Jewish Tea Bag.....Hebrew?

Troy - I can never

Troy - I can never look at more than one screen at once - and even then I sometimes can't understand what I see.

Re 2 : the biggest ponzi scheme continues unreported - and I doubt Gaynor has what it takes to dispue/refure it, or even to investigate.

How about it Brian? Here's the hypothesis:

All economic activity involves the extraction and consumption of resources. (Even those activities you think of as remote, do this, for instance a lawyer uses paper, clothes, computer, part of a building, car, roads, services).

If you increase the rate of consumption at an exponential rate, you run - via 'doubling-time', into peak-rates-of-extraction long before you've cranially adjusted to the fact.

If your fiscal system needed to continue growing (at the aforementioned exponentially-increasing rate) and do so on the back of said extraction, then at or near peak supply of a crucial element (say energy) it was going to be caught with it's pants down.

And wasn't going to recover, no matter how much you kick-start things.

Is it so difficult?

Why the avoidance of the real issue? Rock too many boats? Close too many doors? Need to continue personal income?

The silence closely resembles a conspiracy, but it's probably just denial - much less exciting.

Come on financial scribes - read the ODT, Saturday, p25 "said world hunger was viewed as a problem of development, distribution and equity of access, and not the ability of the world's resources to meet global demand, and suggested a re-think......was needed"

Growth is the biggest Ponzi of all time, Mr Gaynor, the deckchairs are tinker-toys in comparison.

@ #7 Excellent comments from

@ #7 Excellent comments from Bill Gross.
The whole commitment from Governments is to keep the debts on the books - screw the people, the banks come first.
Iceland is being put under huge pressure from the PTB. They should (and their people are prepared to) say sorry can't pay won't pay. It's an outrage and being led by their old adversary the UK. They stood up to the Royal Navy over the theft of their fisheries, I think they have what it takes to tell the bankers and the sleazy British government to go to hell.

@powerdown The biggest ponzi scheme

@powerdown

The biggest ponzi scheme has to be the legal tender scam that has been quietly pushed upon us over the past 70 years. All else is just a derivative from the underlying scam

Martin - true, for years

Martin - true, for years I've tried to work out if you can equate the electronic debt-bubble with environmental degradation, but to help slow the latter, I've confined myself to one screen.

You're quite right, though. If it were underwritten by the 'real', there would be no problem. Perpaps the Amish are onto something.....

Cheers for the article on

Cheers for the article on Michael Lewis, was a good read. While he claims not to emulate Warren Buffet , he certainly goes about his investing/betting in Buffet fashion (locked away in a room reading all day). A bit of genius there too!

Is the Colbert Report still

Is the Colbert Report still on TV? What about John Stewart's Daily Show? Don't see them on TV4 or comedy central anymore.

It seems to be a

It seems to be a problem of cannibals. The legal, finance, real estate. insurance, government and union sectors gang together to eat the productive sectors.

There comes a point when the cannibals are so bloated and the producers so reduced in number that the system works no longer.

In the search for fresh fish the government offers incentives to prospective serfs in the form of low interest rates (and in Aus the first home buyers "King's penny").

How can we resist them? How do we defeat their hordes? These are serious issues.

@Troy That protest-sign picture is

@Troy
That protest-sign picture is fantastic - I especially like the pink sign. Funny stuff that.

The answer dear RW is

The answer dear RW is to stop borrowing, avoid debt and cause the system to collapse.
If month on month fewer suckers enter the banks for 'cheap' loot...the ponzi stupidity will implode. The task is to teach the idiots that they are idiots.

Wally - ah. There you

Wally - ah. There you have it. Remember the two Ronnies on the stone wall?

"What you do then?"

"I be village idiot".

" Oh, I be too dumb to be village idiot".

Tolley's 'long tail' in a nut.......shell. :)

2. Asleep at the wheel

2. Asleep at the wheel would be an understatement. I would say they were reckless and failed to act with due care and attention.

At the same time it's hard to get away from the fact that NZ still operates a version of cowboy capitalism which seems to have been embedded into its post 1984 deregulated economy and practiced through the late 80s and early 90s with abandon by many who managed to salt away a good eal of NZ's wealth.

It's a consequence of inexperience and small country syndrome. Looking at the Huljich Kiwisaver fiasco doesn't add much confidence either.

Oh and the NZX regulates itself.......

Solutions:

- We need some overseas hires to provide an objective and critical eye since everyone here knows each other.

- Investors, sadly, will have to do more due diligence or, like my mother-in-law, stick with simple rolling term deposits.

@Roger Witherspoon: Only the exporters

@Roger Witherspoon: Only the exporters are truly productive, the rest churn...

regards

@Wally: unfortunately the answer isnt

@Wally: unfortunately the answer isnt a collapse....that's anarchy, be careful what you wish for, for instance if you own foreign copper shares the Govn might decide they are worth something and take them off you to pay its bills....

Right now I think with the private sector de-leveraging you are going to get what you wish for, the likeliest implosion point is Greece in April or May if their credit rating is downgraded....at which point it will be pour in billions with Goldman Sach's laughing all the way...or watch the EU implode....if they bail Greece then its Spain, then Italy etc etc....later in the year....once one is bailed there is no incentive for others to keep trying not to default....

regards

gee this is interesting, the

gee this is interesting, the problem is I am in the test tube as well.

:/

For me I think its long jail terms or the hangman's noose for these jokers....I dont think hanging is too much for some of the Bankers/Pollies, in effect they are ruining the lives of others and indeed ppl will probably starve....morally just the same as murder really....

I think JK etc should think back on how Saddam H went out...because revolution/anarchy is the brew he and his ilk have made....now its if we drink it...or maybe when.

regards

Bit harsh Steven, Sir Expecting

Bit harsh Steven, Sir
Expecting the best May Budget in the history of this country...Their onto it as we speak...
Full of vision/explanation/graphs/TV appearances - 'the road forward' type of stuff.
A complete reinvention of our national persona...
None of that 'absolutely,positively' type of drivel, just a firm setting of short term goals, and how we, the voter, will be able to judge success.

Nothing for journalists/us to comment on... just 'jaw-droppingly' inspiring and correct.
Or else...

Where were the regulators? How

Where were the regulators?
How ex commerce com CEO Paula Rebstock got through the monetarist controlled public sector hiring screen process I don't know, they normally cull out anyone that is not of the "Chicago Way", she had acted against Telecom monopoly and taken on the banks on over charging of credit card fees, soon as National got elected her resignation was forthwith, replaced by Mark Berry who had until then been in England on the defence team of the corrupt English bankers.
As for the rest Jane Diplock - Sec Com, Nicki Crauford - NZ Directors Institute, John Key - Prime Minister, all have a background in banking, thats where our regulators have been, I allege it is very hard not to conclude they have acted in the interest of their financial sector frat buddies, not that of the wider public.
I predict Don Brash will be given a clean bill of health from his banking buddy Mark Berry.

Anything other than orderly reform

Anything other than orderly reform of monetary, banking and credit system institutions, such as runs on banks, violent revolution etc is akin to biting off your nose to spite your face.

Congratulations to <b>Weta Workshops</b> for

Congratulations to Weta Workshops for winning an Oscar at the Academy Awards . A shining example of what can emerge in an economy if the government of the day get out of the way . And a rebuttal to all who think that the gov't can pick winners/subsidise certain industries . Best Visual Effects . BRAVO !

and did any of our

and did any of our 'pollies note the moral of the plot, I wonder?

More powerful message than Al Gore's effort.

In the context of soverign

In the context of soverign debt, did anyone see the comments by Labour that National is deliberately understating the recovery to keep a lid on expenditure and given the improved deficit, National should be increasing social program spending!!!

It is astonishing that we continue to pay their salaries when they are either:
a. Completely stupid and have no idea what is happening globally (how have they not seen what is going on in Europe or the US); or

b. Corrupt. They understand what is happening but deliberately wish to consign NZ'ers (and especially the poor people they claim to represent) to absolute poverty as they drive the country into bankruptcy and a inescapable debt spiral.

It just shows how rotten our populist political system has become.

@from the sidelines What is

@from the sidelines

What is even more amazing is the belief that there is any difference between labour and national.. Its basically business as usual giving their masters what they want.

Yes steven...I know to watch

Yes steven...I know to watch out for the thieving fingers of govt. They will likely go after the dead soon with death duties designed to steal all they can. We suffer from there being too many idiots willing to refuse to believe they are being scammed by the govt and the banks. No amount of 'teaching' will convince them of their idiocy. A bit like watching the "I can fly like a bird" fools in the early flicks.... Splat.

Wally, Man, your a scitsofrenic

Wally,
Man, your a scitsofrenic sado-masocist with a anarchy fetish.

Iain - but right, don't

Iain - but right, don't forget he's right.......

<b>Shitsofrenzic ! </b>Geez Iain ,

Shitsofrenzic ! Geez Iain , bothers me how some of youse bloggers & bloggeresses mangle the English language . Good enough for Double-Dipton Bill , gooderer enough for me . Go Wally !

Just in case one or

Just in case one or two ( or everyone ! ) missed Brian Gaynor on 'ZB with Larry Williams ( 6 - 7 p.m. ) . BG highlighted a 1980's finance company that imploded a'la Hanover & Co . He was riled that in 20 years no progress had been made by any government to stop this nonsense . And that a generation of retirees had lost their nest egg savings , while yet one administation after another , plus a few industry " watch-dogs " , slept through the entire fiasco . Anyone managed to rouse Jane Diplock , yet ?

Roger T - mangle away,

Roger T - mangle away, but no sin tax if you please. Grammar wouldn't approve.

Good luck to all those

Good luck to all those who believe that honesty and integrity are alive and well as we are all about to be screwed over again, nice one Mark

Who would know Roger, those

@KW John: Shows my level

@KW John: Shows my level of frustration with the dangerous situation we face....the time for stupid platitudes from stupid, greedy self-interested politicians is now past, IMHO our society and our well being face the biggest challenge and risk in two hundred years, if ever....I consider it that grave....

Consider we put 10 calories of fossil fuels into every calorie of food we eat and doing so allowed us to get to 6.5billion ppl from 2billion...we cant keep putting 10 in for 1 ergo, a considerable % of the 6.5billion are going to starve to death...look at July 2008 when oil was at $147US at Haiti for instance...we dont really even need shortages of oil, just an "excessive" price....

regards

@PDK: "More powerful message than

@PDK: "More powerful message than Al Gore’s effort." ~ indeed and probably not....im convinced Pollies dont think except with their pen*s....ie not that far ahead and only for a few minutes and only every so often...

regards

@from the sidelines: In the

@from the sidelines: In the context of soverign debt, did anyone see the comments by Labour that National is deliberately understating the recovery to keep a lid on expenditure and given the improved deficit, National should be increasing social program spending!!!

We have had some luck which means some short term not so bad's but these are one offs...there is little sign National or anyone else is understating the recovery...its illusionary at best..

Lets be clear what you are saying increase social spending for those today leaving the bills for others the young ones, tomorrow, that's immoral....its our mess as we are the generation(s) in charge that caused it so should take the knocks....

Anything else is theft from our children.

regards

Steven - well said. I've

Steven - well said. I've already apologised to mine.

Max Keiser on Greece http://ia360927.us.archive.org/2/items/MaxK

Max Keiser on Greece

http://ia360927.us.archive.org/2/items/MaxKeiserOnAthensRadio104.4Fm-08M...

Les – good link (March 8th, 2010 at 11:56 am)

A ray of light and

A ray of light and a comment from C Adams in The Herald...seems the pesky possum's days of glory are here..."In last year's Budget, the department (doc) was forced to shave $54 million from its spending over the next four years, meaning planned possum control on 23,000ha of land would not go ahead"...and this tiny bit of action against splurging waste by someone in the Cabinet is forcing the dept to do a deal to allow the harvest of possums from DOC land...a harvest that will allow a boost in the export of quality product.
This event ought to be headline news pasted on the Cabinet walls in the Beehive so the rest of them might learn from it. Sadly, it took the courage of English and the DOC Minister to wake up the beaurocrats to the fact that there was a far better way to deal with the possums than to continue spreading poison across the country.
Ten marks to the Minister. Who is it?
Now the rest of you...apply this lesson across every dept.