Content supplied by Roy Morgan Research
During April support for National fell 3.5% to 42.5% - the lowest for two years since April – May 2014, now only 2% ahead of a potential Labour/Greens alliance 40.5% (down 1.5%).
If a New Zealand Election were held now the latest NZ Roy Morgan Poll shows NZ First 12.5% (up 3.5% to their highest level of support in twenty years) would hold the balance of power and be in a position to determine who would form the next New Zealand Government.
Support for the National partners showed little change with the Maori Party, up 0.5% to 1.5%, Act NZ was 1.5% (up 0.5%) – Act NZ’s highest level of support since late 2014 and United Future was 0% (unchanged).
Of the three Parliamentary Opposition parties - Labour’s support is now at 26% (down 2%), Greens 14.5% (up 0.5%) and NZ First has jumped 3.5% to 12.5% - its highest level of support since the 1996 NZ Election. Of the parties outside Parliament the Conservative Party of NZ is 1% (up 0.5%), the Mana Party is 0% (down 0.5%) and support for Independent/ Others is 0.5% (up 0.5%).
The NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has decreased to 127pts (down 5pts) in April with 57.5% (down 3.5%) of NZ electors saying NZ is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 30.5% (up 1.5%) that say NZ is ‘heading in the wrong direction’. NZ Government Confidence is much higher than in Australia.
Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman, Roy Morgan Research, says:
“Today’s Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll shows a significant drop in support for National 42.5% (down 3.5% since March) now at its lowest for two years since April-May 2014. However, the fall in support for National hasn’t gone to traditional rivals Labour 26% (down 2%) or the Greens 14.5% (up 0.5%), but centrist party NZ First – now at a record high 12.5% (up 3.5%).
“In early April NZ First Leader Winston Peters was ejected from Question Time on consecutive days after questioning the Government’s commitment to free travel for senior citizens with the SuperGold card – a policy the Key Government ‘stole’ from NZ First, but then decided to cap, and the following day Peters was ejected from Parliament after questioning the apparent ‘tax haven’ status of New Zealand as revealed by the Panama Papers.
“Peters’ strong stand against the Government, along with an apparent rejection of a joint policy platform with Labour heading towards next year’s New Zealand Election, have won the party a considerable degree of new support. This month’s result for New Zealand First is the highest level of support for NZ First since they captured 13.4% of the vote at the 1996 New Zealand Election – enough to win 17 seats and lead to Peters becoming Deputy Prime Minister of New Zealand and also Treasurer between 1996-1998.”
Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 843 electors in April 2016. Of all electors surveyed 7% (down 1%) didn’t name a party.
75 Comments
strange maybe the PM had another GUT feeling that the worm is turning
we are getting fed up with high immigration ,
foreigners buying everything up,
and investors running FHB off to hover up the homes they would buy.
add to that a PM having no problem with foreigners setting up trusts in NZ to not pay tax in their own country
doing nothing and spin talk is only going to work for so long and 9 years has been a good run but time to move on and let someone take over that will
ban non residents from buying any NZ property
slash immigration by cutting some of the rubbish qualifications i.e self stackers wtf
change the business immigration qualifications so no more investing in houses or term deposits but real businesses
and last make investing in rental housing less advantaged by taking away neg gearing, taxing on all GC and upping the LVR to 50% to make them cashflow positive
With Key doing all he can to piss off the 500K+ Kiwi expats in AUS alone with his "land tax", he might get his grin wiped off his face next year.
What suprises me is that the party for islamization and feminization (Green) is so strong. Do we have that many school teachers in NZ?
You might want to watch this speech Peter Pan, but I dare say you wont as couldn't handle the jandle from your comments re Green.
http://www.radiolive.co.nz/Green-MP-launches-stinging-attack-on-arrogan…
You have not experienced what "green" parties have already iinflicted on other societies. They are the most hypocritical, up themselves moralizing rubbish the world has ever seen.
Btw, the speech contains "... you [Key] are more welcoming to US oil companies than refugees ...". Well, have you seen the Muslim riots along the Greek border where these people "demand" illegal border crossing? Oh Yes, I rather welcome US oil companies than bogus refugees. Thank you for supporting my point regarding the islamization agenda of the so-called Greens.
Do a bit of research e.g. on the Swedish Greens, just regarding the last few weeks. The party is a hotbed of Islamic fundamentalism. The Swedish Greens, although in government, sport one Muslim MP who refuses to shake the hands of women and the party is also entertaining relations to the terrorist Muslim Brotherhood of Egypt.
Green parties around the world act as useful idiots and bridgeheads of islamization.
So if you can compare any greens party around the world that you decide to cherry pick to ours, then we can compare any tory party to the nats, and right now George W is looking pretty similar to key, both have a very strong preference for telling porkies instead of the truth.
Not that we even need to compare that much, key is bad enough on his own.
Dare we hope that Kiwis are finally waking up to just how useless and self serving the main parties are? i don't for a moment believe NZ First to be a lot different but at least Winnie seems to be in touch with the people. The run up to the election will be interesting.
to the other commentators - don't make the mistake of connecting this poll outcome to the land tax announcement. they might be related as the poll indicating frustration with the Government for doing nothing, and the Government belatedly realising it has to do something. But more likely the Government will talk about a land tax for the next 18 months, do nothing while expecting to get voted in on promises of hot air.....
The land tax will probably hit more Kiwi expats than the Chinese people want to see hit. The latter operate from large family clusters and someone will sit his bum in a house in NZ, if it saves them enough money.
The beach towel, the "fund raiser" with rich Chinese to replace our flag with the beach towel, Key's indifference towards young Kiwis who stand little chance of competing with his rich Asian friends and now the land tax stunt which betrays first signs of panic - Key looks weak and out of touch. We are probably witnessing his political sunset.
Of all, well, developed nations, NZ probably has the highest percentage of expats. So what does Key come up with? A tax that will nearly certainly punish straight shooting expats more than the actual Chinese speculators who will find ways and means to avoid it.
But as you can see in this forum, there are enough punters who hear "tax on non-residents" and immediately jump to the - false - conclusion that Key is finally halting the sell-out of our country. Targeting expats is cunning and cheap and might force genuine Kiwis working overseas to sell to - guess who ...
Yes i am well aware of the duplicity in his statement, and I have always argued that people should be "at least resident" to own property in NZ. By this I meant that in a tier where a NZ passport holder at the top of the tier and resident below that. Thus a Kiwi working overseas would be able to retain property in NZ, but foreign buyers, irrespective of origin, not. Key's point about catching Kiwis working overseas is blatant obfuscation and evasion, and I sugest most will see through him by the time of the election and he'll be gone.
Aussie on sale. ...not just NZ.
http://dailyreckoning.com/china-buys-huge-hunk-aussie-land/?utm_source=…
But more likely the Government will talk about a land tax for the next 18 months, do nothing while expecting to get voted in on promises of hot air
I'm expecting a lot of spin to delay implementation of any potential policy. I suspect National will create a 'working group' who will need to 'analyse the data' further before any policy changes are implemented. After 5 years of analysis they will say that it's impossible to formulate conclusions from the data (the data of course won't be released for public scrutiny of course as it is 'too complicated' for the public to understand) and will recommend status quo.
Any criticism at the time will bring claims that this is Labours fault and the a statement from Key that will go something like "Look, actually, at the end of the day New Zealanders aren't really interested in who are buying houses and land. I think you'll find most of the buying is actually from Mum and Dad New Zealanders rather than overseas buyers." etc. etc.
WINZ will open a free 'tenant translation line' so that young New Zealanders can communicate with their foreign landlord - "Xiānshēng, nǐ hǎo".
Count me in as one of those who is moving from National to NZ First (however unpalatable it may be.....)
In my humble view JK and his government are either;
1. So out of touch with what's happening in NZ they think they are actually doing the right thing = incompetence and asleep at the wheel so they need to go
OR
2. They are morally corrupt and are aware of it, and actually allowing (encouraging?) the free for all to prop up their numbers so they can get another term = screw average NZ'ers...
Either way I'm a lifelong, National voter, probably their prime demographic (Aucklander, European NZ'er, 48, educated, a bit of dough...relatively conservative) but I will NEVER forgive them for what they have allowed to happen to this country in the last 3-4 years (I've cut them slack for first term.)
It will take a very long time for me to come back to them - if ever.
After being a big fan of his originally I now actually believe JK's reign will be looked back on as one of the most destructive periods for our society in NZ's history as we sold away our country and ethics for a few bucks and political ideology.
Hey nice one. Tell me do any of you so called "educated" voters out there who couldn't for the life of you see this guy was corrupt to the core take any personal responsibility for putting this banker in charge? I'm no fan of Labour voters for the same reason! It seems to take all you 'life long' myopic voter types around 9 years to realise the mistakes you make that effect us all. So a big thank you again from the 800,000 of us progressives who have long since come to the conclusion the two main parties are just a different shade of corrupt.
So much damage has been done that it would take 50 years to address now I reckon.
You getting a hint of the anger many of us feel ?
I voted NZ First last time and no one before that. I must be ahead of the curve. We ex national supporters have a big problem with those 800,000 progressives not being nationalistic enough. What we need is a pragmatic greenish-Nationalist party. Perhaps NZ First could reshape itself into this to capture the youth vote.
'So much damage has been done that it would take 50 years to address now I reckon.'
The damage done to NZ by Key and company is so great it can never be rectified.
Anyway, we haven't got 50 years. We'll be lucky if we get 15, the way economic and environmental factors are trending.
Daily CO2 April 25, 2016: 408.23 ppm, up 5.64 from April 25, 2015: 402.59 ppm
Anything (this is the designer in me talking here) can be fixed,rectified or made better but...it just takes a collective will backed up by the logic "this is best for all of us". No legislation is set in stone and a government can and does often implement back dating to readdress injustices, economic or otherwise. We just need a party/collective willing to become the vessel for real change. I love this country but god damn it's been disappointing me for so long now. So shortsighted, so narrow minded, so naive and insecure, at times.... But with a huge untapped undervalued potential.
dr garnesh narnah got it right this morning, its not a crisis but a long term economic problem that will affect us all
second there is will take a range of measures to fix and he mentioned immigration ,supply,investors, land bankers.
the major one was no political will to fix it as it will effect those enjoying the benefits against those not.
Once the media turn, Key won't know what's hit him. And its happening, even Fran is having a go. Its gonna be open season any day...and not just for ducks.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=116…
The problem began the day the government set the price for an "investor class visa" at $1½ million and turned a blind eye to that investment being achieved in residential property. Many houses in migrant-dominated-communities immediately sold for exactly $1½ million.
Alternately they simply purchased 2 at $750,000 to make up the portfolio. No mucking around
It is half true at best: http://glossary.immigration.govt.nz/acceptableinvestment.htm
They can pull down an old house and build a new one, that counts. Although I could bet that enforcement is slack.
Thanks PeterPen. I have just read through it and it is a lot looser than I had simply assumed. It does seem to be a cheap way for someone to get through the door.
Makes me think of all those douchebags comedians in the eighties who constantly disparaged NZ society with their little comedy skits...."we don't know how lucky we are!" Ha!
As I said above - turned a blind-eye
to quote posts from a long time ago from basel-brush-III
Basel Brush in 2012
NZ has a significant investor visa program requiring an investment of $1½ million.
With hindsight you could see (and so could the authorities at that time) what was going on
An off-shore buyer pays $1½ million for a house worth $800k without blinking or inspecting the property
That is an outright purchase of NZ citizenship and NZ passport and NZ residency Without regard to the over-flow consequences into other property
Basel Brush July 2012
I was told today of a local Asian RE agent buying on behalf of a China buyer, sight-unseen, a property in Botany area. The price negotiated is $1.6m for a property with a CV of $800k
http://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/60396/thursdays-top-10-10-japanese-pe…
http://www.interest.co.nz/news/76472/concerns-about-housing-affordabili…
That was all 4 years ago - seen exactly the same thing since for houses in Mt Albert and on the North Shore - nice round figures of $1½ million - too often - too repetitive
People seem to think John Key won't do anything but there is no doubt that the voices are getting louder against him and this is not going to leave the front pages. Even property investing National supporters I know are starting to talk out against the current situation rather than keeping their mouths shut as they believe it can only end in tears. Any money they have made is going to be passed fairly quickly on to their children if they are to stay here. Not to mention all of those who are in a far worse situation. He is going to have to address this - and soon. This isn't going away.
Watch this space. Both JK and the RB will soon be implementing measures to sort out Aucklands housing problem. So many in the middle have children who are either in the market as FHBers or will be in that position in the near future. There is no point in us boomers having millions tied up in houses and our children and grandchildren cannot even get a look in. JK will be getting a lot of anger in his direction currently in the form of emails etc. There is no doubt he and his party like Labour dropped the ball. They need to pick it up fast and get some damage control going.
That X and Boomers investors and speculators are making pigs of themselves in Auckland as they take advantage of historically low interest rates and the chance of capital gain from here. In particular the RB will not let this carry on forever as they have their reputation to protect. When properties are selling for ten times income and at prices higher than Sydney prices you have to think Wheeler and co are thinking we cannot let this get any higher as there is now a risk of some form of economic instability if there is any form of reversal. I suspect that overseas buyers are still not back in the market like they were but they have been more than replaced by X and Boomers going for it. No brainer really. Low costs interest rate wise, no capital gain tax if held for two years and some chance of capital gain. When we get to 15 times incomes or thereabouts we might see some sanity.
I am almost sad about those who now say they are prepared to leave National.
What were they doing and thinking even before the 2014 election when even then they could have gone to Open Homes with lots of buyers new to the country with obvious cash to spend.
The trend is not new.
It has been obvious in Auckland at least four years.
I pick Jk will introduce a piss weak 0.5% land tax just before the election next year with a disclaimer to wait and see what effect that has...bugger all but buys more time for Nats and off shore investors.
In the mean time RB will tinker with LVRs for the country to once again slow investor demand.
Keep an eye out for the carrots, higher price Limits for Fhb home start grants or small tax cuts for business.
Mindless tribalism of the My Party vs Your Party kind is just a distraction. At this point the important thing is to clean out the corruption. There's always been an element of corruption, but with this government it appears to be their primary motivation. Bunch of lightweights and carpetbaggers stuffing their pockets with zero interest in actually doing the job New Zealanders elected them to do.
What a lying so and so, says he hasn't seen the figures but his about face has most commentators including the Herald saying he must have. How can we put up with someone who only responds when the tea leaves become so overwhelming that he must move away from his natural 1 per centers and look after the rest of us?
I despair that NZ will be fooled by this used car salesman tactics who will finally ' at the end of the day' be seen to be actually doing something that he has been avoiding at all costs for donkeys.
Supply - yeah right, its always been about demand and he knew it.
Cunning as the toilet rat he is.
Off key but I note the Weekend Herald has him saying he has played hard ball with Xi but I note we only had his word for that and his word and 6 dollars will get you a coffee anywhere in AKL.
So let me get this straight. The consensus is a "Land tax" on foreign owners.
Didn't I just read somewhere that anyone can set up a trust in NZ and not disclose the details. Me thinks those trusts can then buy property here. NZ trust = no land tax. So as usual with every tax, the only ones who pay it will be the average citizen.
Tax of any sort will never lower the cost.
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