Here's my summary of the key events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news China is wavering on 'reform', choosing 'stability' instead.
But first, American interest rates being kept too low for too long could cause financial instability in future and stronger market expectations for a rate rise are "probably good", said St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard who is a voter on the FOMC.
Meanwhile, the American latest factory PMI reading for May is pretty lackluster. It shows expansion in this sector, but only just. The output component fell for the first time since September 2009.
Meanwhile in Europe this same measure is much more upbeat, even if it did slip to a 16 month low. It is solidly in expansion. Even France pushed back into expansion in May for both factory activity and services.
The Greek parliament has passed their new budget cuts and tax rises two days before a Eurozone meeting expected to unblock much-needed bailout funds worth about NZ$140 bln. The vote was 153 to 145. The struggle now shifts to one between the IMF and Germany. The IMF is insisting on substantial debt relief for Greece; Germany is resisting.
In China, reports are emerging that their central bank has lost interest in letting the market determine the price of its currency. It can't give up control of the process or stomach the risks of the transition. They have opted for 'stability' as their primary focus. The manipulation will continue. 'Reform' is only a word in China, not a policy followed by action.
They may need more 'stability' soon. China's construction of office buildings is running so hot it is far outstripping demand. A severe and painful correction must follow this building binge.
In New York the benchmark UST 10yr yield is basically unchanged at 1.85%. Locally, swap rates rose and flattened yesterday. In fact, the 2-10 rate curve is now its flattest in almost a year. Back in late May 2015 however, wholesale rates were about 100 bps higher than now.
The oil price is a little lower today with the US benchmark just under $48/barrel and the Brent benchmark just over US$48/barrel.
The gold price is also a little lower at US$1,251/oz.
And finally, the NZ dollar will start today unchanged at 67.7 US¢, at 93.7 AU¢, and at 60.3 euro cents. The TWI-5 index is now at 71.6. A remarkable thing about the Kiwi dollar is that it is approaching a year in this general range. No longer can you say it is 'strong' or 'weak' at this level. It is now 'normal' at this level.
If you want to catch up with all the local changes yesterday, we have an update here.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
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