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Top 10 at 10 with NZ Mint; Goldman settles SEC action with 14 days profit lost; Where's NZ's China strategy?; Dilbert

Posted in Opinion

Today we welcome our new sponsor New Zealand Mint. Many thanks to Nicola and the team at New Zealand Mint for helping to make this possible every day. Here are my Top 10 links from around the Internet at 10 to 12 pm brought to you in association with New Zealand Mint for your lunchtime reading pleasure.

I welcome your additions and comments below or please send suggestions for Monday's Top 10 at 10 via email to bernard.hickey@interest.co.nz

1. Where's the strategy - Fran O'Sullivan has rightly asked in her NZHerald column where John Key's China strategy is after his visit to China, where he made a few promises without the strategy to back them up.

Fran's piece is well worth a read, as much for the flavour of how far behind we are and a sense of the contempt the Chinese (!) have for our lack of competition and our welfare state.

Yikes. When the Communists start criticising you for being too socialist then you know you have a problem.

First, how does Key propose to treble NZ's estimated $4 billion annual exports to China to reach $12 billion within five years?

Second, how does Key plan to arrest an apparent trend of Kiwis becoming "tenants in their own country"?

Related Topics

Third, is Key going to insist that Mandarin becomes a core component - or even an alternative language - as part of the curriculum in every secondary school in New Zealand?

Surely, it's not too much to ask that a policy response to these core questions should be part of the discussion when Key chairs next week's Cabinet meeting.

2. Deleveraging dominates - Brian Fallow has a good wrapup at the NZHerald on the Reserve Bank's latest comments on 'macro-prudential' policy tools such as the Core Funding Ratio to complement the Official Cash Rate and the 1-3% inflation target. He rightly points out that de-leveraging may be more powerful than anything the Reserve Bank might or might not do.

People have embarked on what may prove to be an extended period of deleveraging. In real per capita terms household debt is falling. Tax changes in the Budget, while milder than many feared, have reduced the incentive, and to a lesser extent the opportunity, for investors to use rental properties as a tax shelter. That should reduce demand in at least some parts of the housing market.

Meanwhile, on balance a return to a world awash with cheap money seems less likely than not. It is possible, if those who believe the western world is slipping inexorably towards deflation are right.

But the more widespread view is that high levels of household and government sector debt will inevitably mean higher interest rates and slower economic growth.

3. Money to make the problem go away - Goldman Sachs has agreed to pay US$550 million to settle the SEC charges against it over misleading investors on sub-prime mortgage instruments. That settlement amount is equal to 14 days worth of profit for Goldman Sachs. It has admitted no fault and simply says it "regrets that marketing materials did not contain full disclosure." Fabulous Fab appears to have been thrown to the wolves. Here's the Zerohedge verdict. Here's the PDF of the full SEC ruling for the junkies.

We, in turn, regret that America no longer has a fair and just legal system There is still some vague hope that a Judge Rakoff wannabe will block this travesty of justice but we are not holding our breath. And sorry Fab Fab, you are still going to be the sacrificial lamb (for now)

4. The China-Japan relationship - China's deep seated grumpiness about Japan is legendary in Asian trade and political circles. They just can't help remembering that war thing. The Japanese, meanwhile, have some remarkable double standards when it comes to trade and immigration. They love trade, except when foreign companies want to operate in Japan. And they hate immigrants, even when they have to have them in to work for them. Here the Economist reports on a little known part of the relationship: Chinese migrant workers in Japan. It's not nice. The Japanese work some of the Chinese to death, it seems.

Far from the bright lights of Japan’s shopping districts, however, young Chinese working in small industrial firms get anything but red-carpet treatment. On July 5th Kyodo, a news agency, reported that 21 Chinese were among 27 foreign trainees who died last year on a government-sponsored skills-transfer scheme for developing countries that over the past four years has brought in an average of 94,000 workers a year, mostly from China.

Of the 27, nine died of heart or brain diseases, four died while working and three committed suicide. A few days earlier officials confirmed that a 31-year-old Chinese trainee who died in 2008 after clocking up about 100 hours a month of overtime was the victim not of heart failure, as originally reported, but of “karoshi”, the Japanese affliction of death from overwork. Japan International Training Co-operation Organisation, the outfit set up by five government ministries to oversee the skills-transfer programme, refuses to discuss the deaths.

But Lila Abiko, of the Lawyers’ Network for Foreign Trainees, an NGO, says many guest-workers do so much low-paid overtime—with the support of their employers—that they literally work themselves to death. The mortality rate from heart disease and other stress-related ailments among trainees in their 20s and 30s is almost double that of Japanese of the same age, she says. “Japan is the richest country in Asia, yet this programme is exploiting poor Chinese like slaves.”

5. Bob vs Paul - Ding Ding. Followers of Australian politics will be fascinated by the explosive exchange in public in recent days between Paul Keating and Bob Hawke. I certainly am. \I was a political and economics reporter for Reuters in Canberra from 1994 to 1996 in the last two years of Keating's Prime Ministerial reign. He was a dangerous, brilliant man who New Zealanders should all worship. I'm not kidding. His picture should be on every wall like the Pope or Kennedy.

Keating (and this is the key point) singlehandedly led the massive reforms in the Australian economy in the 1980s that has created the amazing economy that is there now and singlehandedly keeps our economy afloat. He set up the A$1 trillion compulsory pension scheme and the 4 pillars policy for banks that effectively created and then guaranteed the strong banking system we have on both sides of the Tasman that saved us in the Global Financial Crisis. I'm not kidding about that either.

Now Bob Hawke (or more correctly his new biographer/wife) has slammed Keating in public with a new book which described Keating as an 'ailing ditherer'. Here's The Australian report on that.

And here below is the seething, scathing letter Keating then sent to The Australian opening up on Bob (extracts below). Keating bascically said that Hawke had a mental breakdown in 1984 and never really got out of it.

Australia is a wonderful place to report politics because politicians and business leaders say what they really think in public. All the time. Only in Australia. See the irrelevant video below.

I will also bet, London to a brick on, that notwithstanding what the serialised account on Saturday had to say of your breakdown in 1984, that the book will fail to make clear that your emotional and intellectual malaise lasted for years. All through the Tax Summit year of 1985; through to your lacklustre performance through the 1987 election, to the point when in 1988, four years later, (John) Dawkins had to front you, asking you to leave. It was only after that that you approached me, at your initiative, to enter into an agreement with me to succeed you following the 1990 election.

An agreement you subsequently broke. The fact is, Bob, I was exceedingly kind to you for a very long time. I knew the state you were in in 1984 and notwithstanding a lot of unhelpful advice from Garnaut and other obsequious members of your staff, I carried you through the whole 1984-1987 parliament, insisting you look like the prime minister, even if your staff, the Manchu Court I called them, were otherwise prepared to leave you in your emotional hole. No other prime minister would have survived going missing for that long.

Enough is enough. That yours and Blanche's rewriting of history is not only unreasonable and unfair, more than that, it is grasping. It is as if, Narcissus-like, you cannot find enough praise to heap upon yourself. In hindsight, it is obvious yours and Blanche's expressions of friendship towards me over the last few years have been completely insincere.

I can only promise you this: if I get around to writing a book, and I might, I will be telling the truth; the whole truth. And that truth will record the great structural changes that occurred during our years and my own as prime minister, but it will also record without favour, how lucky you were to have me drive the government during your down years, leaving you with the credit for much of the success.

6. A lot of empty apartments - And Wellington apartment owners think there is a glut in their market after the opening of Soho. In China the situation is 65 million times worse, Zerohedge points out, citing a South China Morning Post article in the wake of slower GDP growth data. ZH also talks about a Fitch report on the health of the Chinese banking system... HT Hugh P via email.

Yet this data pales in comparison with disclosure from a recent article in South China Morning Post, in which an economist at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences noted estimates from electricity meter readings that there are about 64.5 million empty apartments and houses in urban areas of the country!

This number is five times larger than the roughly 12 million in total US public (3.89 million) and shadow (8 million as estimated by Morgan Stanley) home inventory available currently. Forget Stephen Roach - China is covertly funding and creating a housing bubble that is at least 5 times as big as that of the United States.

We leave it up to you to imagine the consequences of that particular bubble's bursting...

The Fitch report is pretty self-explanatory (presented below) but here is a section that highlights that China's banks are increasingly becoming more opaque in data presentation, which one can assume is due to their unwillingness to reveal the true state of affairs. Of course the same tactic worked very well for our own subprime sector... until virtually every company in the space went bankrupt in the span of 3 weeks in 2007.

7. When will the US and UK investment bankers wake up - Max Hastings writes at FT.com about the sense of unreality that pervades the British and American financial scenes. He rightly says the investment bankers have learned nothing and their refusal to pull their snouts out of the trough threatens capitalism itself. Remember, this is not some left wing nutter saying this. (Sir) Max Hastings is a pillar of the British establishment and a former editor of the (er right leaning) Telegraph who is writing this in the (not very socialist) Financial Times of London.

Over the past two or three decades, bankers have conditioned themselves to suppose that they merit a standard of living far higher than that of ordinary mortals. They refuse to acknowledge that in any society, only a tiny handful of corporate employees can stake a rational claim on seven-figure earnings.

Of course, there are some very clever bankers. But many practitioners possess meagre discernible judgment or talents, yet still collect huge pay packets. To a worker in any other business, it seems risible that the proportion of bank revenues devoted to employee pay has fallen from 50 per cent to a mere 38 per cent. Evidence that banks are still unwilling to lend – in other words, to serve the national economic interest – throws their remuneration policy into even sharper relief. A City friend describes bonuses as having fallen from obscene to merely outrageous.

A wealth manager explained to me recently: “OK, so a banker’s income and bonus drops from, say, £2m to under one. His paper wealth has declined significantly. But most people can keep their lifestyles going very nicely on three or four hundred thousand net.”

The City, like Wall Street, seems impervious to public anger, which it dismisses as the product of ignoble envy. Bankers are reassured that governments, including David Cameron’s, have retreated from threatening rhetoric about limiting compensation, because the practical difficulties are so great.

Few people in Britain or the US begrudge wealth-creators’ generous returns for risk-taking. But too many indifferently qualified people continue to receive rewards from the City far in excess of any rational recompense for their services. As long as that remains so, the rest of society will sustain its animus towards bankers. We should hound them until they change their ways, which threaten the perceived legitimacy of capitalism.

8. Yet they keep winning - The Wall St Journal reports that the world's banks appear to have staved off tougher capital rules and curbs on risk taking in the Basel III process. And overnight the US Congress passed a watered down version of reforms that leave the Too Big to Fail Big 6 (JP Morgan Chase, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo) intact and using their government guarantees to run their own proprietary trading desks and paying bankers big bonuses.

The world's banks appear to be winning a reprieve from tough new capital requirements and curbs on risk-taking, as regulators and central bankers are moving toward less stringent rules than initially proposed.

Bowing in part to fears that tougher requirements would diminish the credit needed to revive a sluggish global economy, officials gathered in Basel, Switzerland, are trying to strike a compromise over a set of new international banking standards initially proposed in December.

9. Out of the shadows - One of the major contributors to the explosion in credit through mid 2000s was the growth of the so-called Shadow banking system, which included hedge funds, investment banks, private equity funds and money market funds. The Economist reports on an interesting paper by the New York Federal Reserve on the evolution of these shadow banks.

The volume of credit intermediated by the shadow banking system is larger than that of the regular banks. Prior to the crisis, shadow banks had liabilities of $20 trillion compared with $11 trillion for regular banks. Today, the figures are $16 and $13 trillion, respectively.

10. Totally irrelevant video - This is a wonderful example of Australian oratory. Right up there with Banjo Patterson. Or Bob Hawke. Or Paul Keating. More like Paul Keating. Don't watch it if you are of a delicate disposition when hearing swear words...

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment in the box on the right or click on the "'Register" link at the bottom of the comments. Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making these comments.

72 Comments

So. Quite a fan of the

So. Quite a fan of the Keating eh BH.

Had some dealings with Paul

Had some dealings with Paul Keating, agree with your comments BH, stood out from the pack for his vision and execution on policy.

One of the sharpest people I have ever met.

#10. And we wonder why this

#10. And we wonder why this type of 'sportsman' comes off the field and does excactly the same thing to the women they meet later?

1# - There is no economic

1# - There is no economic strategy in this government. What we are seeing in this country is patch work after patch work, but no long term strategy.

Here another example:
More than a million Kiwi adults are being held back because they lack essential literacy and numeracy skills, Tertiary Education Minister says Steven Joyce says.
Please read on:
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/3924301/Million-Kiwis-lack-basic-skills-...
Minister Steven Joyce you are the person, who think and publicly said we are better served importing our infrastructure needs and other high tech widgets ?

Your economic strategy just doesn’t make sense. With your decisions you are even guilty of preventing our workforce from lifting it’s skill/ knowledge. You are guilty of transporting our brains overseas – stop complaining about your are causing those mistakes Minister.

How can New Zealand play first class rugby not having rugby grounds, good coaches and support ?

WK

Listen to #10 I change my my

Listen to #10 I change my my comparison from Rugby to Soccer.

WK

But why is it the Govn's job

But why is it the Govn's job to hand hold everyone?

Also "basic" stuff isn't what we need what we need is to uptrain the higher skilled still higher. ie does getting a road sweeper literate help with road sweeping? un not from what I can see.

Its quite simple. I believe in my future, I invest in it where it makes sense....I go on relevant evening courses which I pay for myself....spend my own time on learning.

I think this also tends to be reflected in non-white/anglo-saxon societies, it seems that they actively train themselves and push their kids through [higher] education, they aren't blind / big on sport physical but they are big on intellectual pursuits...in short I think the developed world has gotten lazy.

Often I see employers who wont give any time off or financial assistance yet expect to benefit from formal skills / certificates their employees gain at the expense of the employees yet the employees dont see pay increases to reflect this, and in fact employers get p*ssed when the employee leaves for a better salary.....been there seen that....suffered it...

regards

Minister Joyce you are

Minister Joyce you are causing a dilemma with your announcement - killing universities and polytechnics long-term.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10659101

Joyce wants university funding linked to jobs
Universities may soon have to ensure students not only perform well but also get a job after they graduate if the institutions want to secure funding.
Tertiary institutions are funded on how many students they enrol but that is changing over the next two years to a performance-based model.
Tertiary Education Minister Steven Joyce says part of the new model includes setting performance targets that focus on course and qualification completion.
Ultimately, he would like to take things a step further by linking employment outcomes to the performance-based model.
That means funding for a university or polytechnic would be in part based on how many of the previous year's students found work as a result of their qualification.

Minister Steven Joyce you are the person, who think and publicly said we are better served importing our infrastructure needs and other high tech widgets ?

Your economic strategy just doesn’t make sense. With your decisions you are even guilty of preventing our workforce from lifting its skill/ knowledge. You are also guilty of transporting our brains overseas.

You should allow and support the development of new industries and more diversity of our secondary sector. More important reasons why, I explained many times before.
WK

Do our parliamentarians

Do our parliamentarians really know in what competitive and fast changing economic environment NZ is currently situated ?
On the bases of their articles/ comments – I doubt.

WK

I’m bloody angry with our

I’m bloody angry with our parliamentarians, but then I couldn’t be one my self, so I really can’t complain- can I ?

I’m not only bloody angry

I’m not only bloody angry with our parliamentarians, I also think we should cut them in half.

Now that's a better sponsor

Now that's a better sponsor interest dot co !! Gets the thumbs up from me.

Matt S Glad to hear it! We

Matt S

Glad to hear it! We aim to please

cheers

Bernard

The Economist magazine has

The Economist magazine has just said gold has peaked. So we know who to sell our holdings through.

NZ Mint.

#1 - Is China is practising

#1 - Is China is practising communism in (what is my understanding of) the Marxian conception - to my knowledge, no state ever has. I feel China is best described as a totalitarian capitalist regime. Social welfare has always been an anathema to totalitarian governments - but not to Marx's conception of communism. Unfortunately (for Marx anyway!) the emerging 20th century one-party-state military ditatorships or "People's Republics" called themselves communist parties, given I suppose labelling yourself the totalitarian party would have been a bit, well, obvious.

Agree....the closest thing to

Agree....the closest thing to maybe a real marxist state would be Cuba....maybe...

totalitarian capitalist regime == fascist?

I always find it funny that whenever is "people" or "democratic" or "republic" its almost certain that's what its not.

regards

Good call Steve, China is a

Good call Steve, China is a Fascist state with a passing nod to communism.

Item 6 - China housing

Item 6 - China housing bubble. Thank you Bernard for including the inportant Zerohedge article. The standard of the comments following the Zerohedge article are very high - and need to be read closely.

James Chanos was interviewed by Charlie Rose during April. It would appear Chanos is pretty much "spot on" with his assessment of Chinas housing bubble. Suggest those interested google this most informative interview. He's the guy who saw through Enron years ago.

Much of the construction slowdown in China may be reflected in the Baltic Dry Index as well - which since late May has fallen from around 4,300 to 1,700 yesterday. Its difficult to accept that this massive fall in the BDI can be explained away because of increased shipping supply.

My sense is that recently developing economies such as Spain, Ireland and China have no or very little social memory of the costs and consequences of housing bubbles (our Banks for example have not forgotten the 1980's - leaving the finance companies and their naive investors to wear it instead). So as land supply cannot be bought to market quickly enough as demand kicks in (due to Governments being slow to react)land prices inflate rapidly. These bubbles take on a life of their own, where market participants convince themselves prices will inflate forever.

They did not inflate in Texas this past decade for example - it boomed but did not bubble. Housing is still sitting at about 2.5 times gross annual household incomes there.

How much residential building has been going on in China in recent years? I havent got a clue - but the indications are that it has been truly massive. At the height of the Irish bubble 90,000 new residential units were going in at the peak. That is a build rate per 1000 population of about 20 (New Zealand is currently a whisker under 4 / 1000 ). This accounted for something in the order of 12 - 15% of Ireland's GDP. Generally construction in a normal economy hovers around 6%. Note in the Chanos interview he makes the statement construction in China hit something like 50 - 60% of GDP - which sounds extraordinary.

In China - land lease (freehold is not possible) have been a major portion of Local Government revenues. It seems unlikely Local Government will willingly collapse the prices of these land leases to allow affordable housing to be built. There are currently no property taxes / rates in China either. So it seems that before affordable housing can be built, Central Government will have to provide financial assistance to Local Governments to allow this to happem. Its difficult to see how these issues can be resolved quickly - particularly as the bubble collapses.

But then what happens when this suggested 65 million vacant residential stock as stated in the Zerohedge article hits the market, as "investors" no longer have the capacity to meet their mortgage obligations? Much of this is likely to be supported at the moment by the housing bubble wealth.

The biggest problem with the Chinese housing market is the poor quality structural information available.

Hugh Pavletich
www.PerformanceUrbanPlanning.org
Christchurch

Haven't I read these ideas

Haven't I read these ideas somewhere before?

"4. The China-Japan

"4. The China-Japan relationship - China's deep seated grumpiness about Japan is legendary in Asian trade and political circles. They just can't help remembering that war thing."

And so they shouldn't. Japan behaved abominably. So badly in fact, that the self-declared Nazi in charge of the German embassy stepped-up and attempted to protect the Chinese. When even an avowed Nazi is appalled at the treatment of "racial inferiors" that things are pretty damn bad.

On the other hand, almost no Japanese people have ever been taught anything about the war, and certainly about, say, Nanking. If you ask them about it, they stridently declare that the Chinese are lying through their teeth about it all, and "only a few thousand died and that was from illnesses". Compounding their almost complete lack of knowledge is their preference of ignorance of such unpleasant events.

"...[M]eanwhile, [the Japanese] have some remarkable double standards when it comes to trade and immigration. They love trade, except when foreign companies want to operate in Japan."

True.

"And they hate immigrants, even when they have to have them in to work for them."

Also true.

As far as the majority of Japanese people are concerned, particularly the younger generations, most foreigners are perfectly fine people, except when they're in Japan.

"Here the Economist reports on a little known part of the relationship: Chinese migrant workers in Japan. It's not nice. The Japanese work some of the Chinese to death, it seems."

There's a reason most of those who work on the vehicle assembly lines are foreign-born: the Japanese simply refuse to do the work. It's tedious, dirty, dangerous, and offers little in the way of prospects. On top of that, if business slows the foreigners are summarily flicked out the door.

There's an interesting book by an American engineer, Darius Mehri, called 'Notes from Toyotaland' (the title is an attempt to cash in on Bill Bryson's 'Notes from a..." series of books.) It covers these topics in-depth, although it is hopelessly biased and subjective, mainly because Mehri, like most western men, assumed that he would be some kind of God in Japan, especially since he spoke some Japanese, and that women would fling themselves at him (they didn't) and he would receive preferential treatment (he didn't). An interesting read, nonetheless.

Someone should clear up John

Someone should clear up John Key's understanding on the "war thing" as well - given his recently comments whilst in China were that they (China) fought on the other side!

Westerners working for

Westerners working for Japanese companies in Japan are treated differently... except don't expect to be necessarily treated as an expert and independent decision maker. Not all Chinese (and we should include Indians too) are treated so badly. I have worked in an electronics company in Osaka where Chinese engineers are treated with the respect they deserve. One of the more pressing issues is that the talent doesn't have the opportunity to express itself as much as it could.

It is a well-known fact that most of the beautiful Japanese women aren't particularly influenced by men simply because they are from the West. Japanese women may be stunningly beautiful in some cases, but they're most definitely high-maintenance.

My Japanese wife buys nothing

My Japanese wife buys nothing but groceries, and then always the cheap stuff on special, which really pisses me off because it makes me look bad if I spend anything on toys for myself.

Kiwi chicks are higher maintenance than the Japanese girls, in my experience. And fatter. And uglier. And more tatooed. And more foul-mouhted. And heavier drinkers. And smokers.

[Here's where I sit back and warm myself over a nice firestorm.]

I hear you Anonymous. Many

I hear you Anonymous. Many Kiwi women leave much to be desired. Then again, Kiwi men are hardly a tribe of Brad Pitts. We shun intelligent people and success, and we also are among the fattest males on the planet.

Agreed; any good publicity

Agreed; any good publicity the All Whites got NZ recently, was probably wiped out by the sight of our fat soccer fans with their shirts off...............and the blokes weren't much better.

Hugh - you still haven't

Hugh - you still haven't responded adequately why you believe 3x h/h income is an immutable law. All I copped was an abusive tirade. Obviously touched a nerve, old boy.

My belief is that Kiwis (and other Western societies) will be too poor to own in future, and housing will all be held in portfolios and rented out and held by an elite (as the middle class disappears)and passed down the generations of elites.

If we are correct and we are in a bubble, then what happens as prices crash, even to 3x gross h/h income? Banks won't lend, and housing wealth will be scooped up by the well-endowed, with other assets to dilute the risk of holding housing.

Then ratios won't matter, as few in the population will own.

@Anon 'Hugh - you still

@Anon

'Hugh - you still haven't responded adequately why you believe 3x h/h income is an immutable law.'

Dunno where you're getting the immutable law bit from matie. But let me answer some of those questions too.

'My belief is that Kiwis (and other Western societies) will be too poor to own in future, and housing will all be held in portfolios and rented out and held by an elite (as the middle class disappears)and passed down the generations of elites.'

That's a dream all property investors share but I don't think it will happen here in NZ. That's when you WILL see 'immutable laws' about home ownership coming into effect. No govt would survive letting a privileged landlord class prevent the rest from owning a home. They'd be out on their ear in no time and there's not a pollie around dumb enough not to understand it, even amongst this lot!

'If we are correct and we are in a bubble, then what happens as prices crash, even to 3x gross h/h income? Banks won't lend, and housing wealth will be scooped up by the well-endowed, with other assets to dilute the risk of holding housing.'

Ah but son you are making the same mistake as the media and other commentators and forgetting about the people who have been quietly saving their pennies in the bank and making profitable investments outside property. There are more of us than you would imagine. Amazingly there is a whole big group of quiet types, ordinary people, who are in a position to buy prperty without having to get a mortgage. They can do that because they don't like mortgages and debt and prefer to save. As property prices continue to fall, and if deflation kicks in along the line, they could buy any number of houses. But they probably won't, because why would they? You live in a house, that's it, they have never been genuinely worthwhile as investments.

Make no mistake, prices are going to fall a hell of a lot, even more than a lot of people are expecting or hoping or fearing. So much so that anyone with any kind of cash in the bank will be in an excellent position to own a home, more so than we've seen in decades in fact. You won't actually need a great deal of money saved or a huge salary to afford a house in years to come. The only people who will be locked out are those with bucket loads of debt, and those people are today's would-be property tycoons mostly! Talk about a bit of irony, eh?

Banks make money on savings (they do, I know you disagree, but talk to a banker some time), and they make money lending, they aren't about to put a stop to either, so when houses are a dime a dozen and a person with some money and a job decides to buy one, the bank isn't going to get in their way unless they have scads of debt already. The days when the more you owed the more you could borrow are gone for a very long time, my boy.

"Make no mistake, prices are

"Make no mistake, prices are going to fall a hell of a lot, even more than a lot of people are expecting or hoping or fearing. So much so that anyone with any kind of cash in the bank will be in an excellent position to own a home, more so than we've seen in decades in fact. You won't actually need a great deal of money saved or a huge salary to afford a house in years to come. The only people who will be locked out are those with bucket loads of debt, and those people are today's would-be property tycoons mostly! Talk about a bit of irony, eh?"

Brilliantly put, Trevor, and completely correct to boot.

I think you could be right on

I think you could be right on there being a pool of quiet savers who are lurking about ready to buy outright after a correction. I know of quite a few people like this, but for the most part they fly completely under the radar, as they're not boasting at barbecues, or banging on about mortgages and renovations, flashing expensive purchases about, or otherwise drawing attention to themselves. I wonder how many there actually are?

Many more than most people

Many more than most people would credit.

It's really common for people

It's really common for people now to believe that nobody has any savings, or that saving is impossible, so a pool of unostentatious wealthy wouldn't even occur to them.

There's 190bn of deposits at

There's 190bn of deposits at the bank and 170bn of housing loans. Even if prices dropped enough enough to get those depositer's out of cash, and even if every house was sold for more than the loan outstanding, that deleveraging wouldn't go far before the banks start falling over and there are limits placed on the amounts withdrawn. I don't see it happening, but all depends on what the depositers decide to do.

Keep on renting !

Keep on renting !

Fred, Household deposits in

Fred,

Household deposits in banks were actually NZ$92.4 billion at the end of May, these Reserve Bank figures show. http://rbnz.govt.nz/statistics/monfin/c17/data.html

Household debt was actually NZ$181 billion at the end of May, these Reserve Bank figures show http://rbnz.govt.nz/statistics/monfin/c17/data.html

 

cheers

Bernard

Hmmm. Let's

Hmmm.

Let's see.

181,000,000,000 divided by 92,400,000,000 equals 1.9588...

So for every buck people have saved they essentially *owe* two more?

Looking good, economy...looking good...!

Bernard those are obviously

Bernard those are obviously just filthy lies, because property investors have been telling us for years that almost all houses in New Zealand aren't mortgaged.

I think there's 1.75 mio

I think there's 1.75 mio properties in NZ ( 4.5 mio of us @ 2.55 phh) @ median $355k = $621bn property. Only $181bn debt of all sorts. So lots of scope for unencumbered property?

What, if any, percentage of

What, if any, percentage of the figure you stated is commercial property, not residential?

That's what we don't know, as

That's what we don't know, as you point out. But it still leaves a good margin of possibility that there are indeed quite a goodly number of unencumbered residential properties. Like wise, we do no know what percentage of mortgage free owners have any net worth at all, versus the $92 bn in deposits.

"...we do no know what

"...we do no know what percentage of mortgage free owners have any net worth at all..."

Yeah, but they own houses, and as we all know, "YA CAN'T LOSE WITH HOUSES, MAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAATE!!!!!!!!!!!111"

621bn total property value?

621bn total property value? So lots of scope for unencumbered property? Damn, a missed sales opportunity! What went wrong, something slipped through the cracks?

Get me a business plan for getting them onto the balance sheet. Home improvement loans,reverse annuities, leasebacks on Council housing, State housing . . . or you're fired http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rrzPUbq3GHw&feature=related

Bernard, Thanks, I was going

Bernard,

Thanks, I was going by this figure here, http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/statistics/monfin/c4/data.html total M3 institution liabilities to NZ residents in both NZ$ and foreign $ (183 +7). So the $100bn difference must be working capital for business and corporates and would therefore not available for investment - certainly in housing.

"why you believe 3x h/h

"why you believe 3x h/h income is an immutable law."

Why isnt it?

Yes generally I think its probable it is....could elites own it all? somehow, no....too few against too many.

"held by an elite (as the middle class disappears)and passed down the generations of elites."

Recall the death taxes in the UK in the past?S 95%?

Assuming democracy dies a nasty death....which I dont just see...

So I think the super-wealthy are at an even bigger risk myself....interesting listening to Hugh Hendry and a few others pondering where they are going to go to get away from "socialism" answer there isnt anywhere for them to go, and that's what's p*ssing them off they know that as well....

regards

Anonymous @ 1.54. My

Anonymous @ 1.54. My apologies old chap if my response last evening was a little curt! Indeed I dont think I could have explained the significance and importance of the "3 Multiple" more clearly over the past six long years.

If you are still unclear about it all, please go to my website Performance Urban Planning ( www.PerformanceUrbanPlanning.org ) and read closely the 6 Annual Demographia Surveys, which provide hyperlinks within the narratives annually to most of the important research out there. There is just screeds of the stuff.

You will note down the left column of my website that there is a hyperlink to the important Harvard University Joint Center of Housing Research Median Multiple Tables for the major US Metros going back to 1980. The major metros of the US are currently sitting at 2.9 Median Multiple according to the latest Demographia Survey.

Do also make a point of going to the Houston Association of Realtors superb website ( www.har.com ) and to access their latest Monthly Reports click on the "Homes for Sale" on the front page. You will then be able to click through to the latest Monthly Report.

Even if the New Zealand Government got on to this issue now (lets see what Hon Nick Smiths Urban Technical Advisory Group Report with accompanying 5 Ministerial Statements have to say) - it would likely take us at least 10 years to restore housing to at or below the 3 Multiple, because the performance of our residential construction sector has been so seriously degraded because of poor quality planning over recent decades.

We are currently paying about double per square metre construction than what we should be. Lifting construction performance back to acceptable and affordable international levels is a long haul exercise.

The costs of getting subdivisions in in this country is simply......obscene. We are a million miles away from where they are currently say in Texas - where serviced lots on the fringes are being provided at around $US30,000.

What politicians do get punished for are high mortgage loads on households - as the Fitch Ratings Research commissioned by the Sydney Morning Herald following the 2007 Australian Federal Election found out. Google "Stuart Washington Fitch Ratings" to read this article.

In any event - these grossly inflated house prices are no good for REAL investors because the return on invested funds is pathetic. So real investors should welcome properly priced housing. It is the "easy money" speculators expecting the Government to do nothing about the obvious planning failures, who are currently whining like stuck pigs. They couldnt give a monkeys about the social and economic costs of housing bubbles - just so long as they were getting something for nothing.

The housing market is too impotant to be just an unearned bubble capital gains exercise for losers - who lack the skills to create real wealth.

New Zealand with a Median Multiple of 5.7 for its major metros has a "competitive gap" with Australia where the major metros have inflated out past 7 Median Multiple. The New Zealand Government will be acutely aware of the importance of widening this gap further over coming years - so that increasingly New Zealand is seen as an affordable housing destination. This should assist greatly in arresting the persistent migration flow of young people across the Tasman as well.

As the co author of the Annual Demographia Survey dealing around the world on a daily basis - I can assure you that New Zealand is the most advanced politically in dealing with these serious issues. The "proof" however will be in the Environment Ministers Urban TAG Report and the accompanying Ministerial Statements expected to be released shortly.

I trust the above answers your points.

Hugh Pavletich
www.PerformanceUrbanPlanning.org
Christchurch

So, the ones that are saving

So, the ones that are saving and will buy outright will trump those trying to get finance - and property will start to concentrate in fewer hands? Good tnat you agree with me, in the end

Most of those who can buy

Most of those who can buy outright probably won't. We don't like debt, and a mortgage is one of the worst types of debt. A lot of people do not see houses as anything more than something to live in, you need to get that into your head. Not everyone sees them as the road to Damascus.

House prices will be very low in a few years, lower than they've been in decades is my pick, and that means that like I said before, anyone with a job and no debt will likely have no trouble getting finance from a bank to buy a home for themselves and their family.

The problem with these greedy and obsessed property investors is that they believe there's nothing wrong with grabbing as many houses for themselves as they can at the expense of youngsters just starting out in life, while the rest of us are content to save and live the good life without showy excess.

Agree... I think we will see

Agree...

I think we will see a big housing (loss) correction soon, before Jan 2014 and its looking like before Jan 2011. Entering Second Great Depression seems to ensure that will happen...the other option is aka japan, 20+ years of stagnation...with slow depreciation, either way owning a depreciating asset like a house is stupid IMHO...unless its your home....which is how I think of it....

regards

Not so sure...I think there

Not so sure...I think there are issues with scaling this model, it has to give a return, not so sure it does, and would enough voters support it? probably not.

The most likely future I see is more left wing governments and far more progressive tax systems...

regards

"A lot of people do not see

"A lot of people do not see houses as anything more than something to live in, you need to get that into your head."

Why do I need unsubstantiated made-up stuff in my head? How many is a lot? 4,000 or 2 million? Or 3.5x any number you may choose?

I can make up sh*t too - most people are greedy and selfish, with a thin veneer of civilisation. Most are pre-programmed to try and promote the wellbeing of their offspring before others. Most people don't even understand their own motivations ... as the ship sinks, people will climb over each other to survive.

And the crowd is oh-so-malleable.

For the record - where will house prices and HMS New Zealand go next? Don't know, but I know I don't know. Just don't expect a pollie to offer to share their brolly ...

Matie, there is a lot more to

Matie, there is a lot more to HMS New Zealand than just ruddy house prices. None of what I said earlier is made up, it's verifiable fact, apart from my opinion that house prices are going to fall back to levels they were at decades ago. But there are many people about the place who haven't spent any money on investment houses and have instead been quietly saving and investing profitably elsewhere. They are the people helping to keep HMS New Zealand afloat and on a true course.

Somebody's getting cranky.

Somebody's getting cranky. Their whole PI universe is going down the drain before their very eyes. Owee! :-)

one of the annon-o-mice asks

one of the annon-o-mice asks at 1.16pm
"how can NZ'ers play good rugby without good grounds, coaches, support?

BH did an early piece on the scandal of SPARC (have I got it right ?) The body that paid
$1.5 million for its web site and had about 20 execs taking over $100,000.00 pa . to promote sport in NZ.
That, my friend, is entirely indicative of what is wrong with poor old NooZulland.
I thought at the time why not use the money to put a couple of coaches in all NZ towns and a new low key ground ( if they haven't got one that could be up graded)

This is a Government that supports Ministers to go on limo wine tours,(don't pick on me I'm the only gay in the village), take their girlfriends on trips but has no compunction about axing the service of the teachers of the deaf.
Apathy will bite you in the bum sooner or later.

"20 execs taking over

"20 execs taking over $100,000.00 pa" Like paying people to do nothing?

Something I need to add in

Something I need to add in responding to Anonymous is that the Government really has two options - do nothing and bust out of the bubble and collapse the building industry in the process. Or be responsible and sort out land supply and infrastructure financing - so that New Zealand can build out of the bubble with increasingly affordable housing stock. It will, as I said before. be a very long haul getting our housing back to affordable levels.

We are currently putting in place around 15,000 new builds annually - or a build rate per 1000 population of a whisker under 4 / 1000.

We really need to get this up to between 25,000 to 35,000 new units annually - or a build rate of 6 to 8 per 1000 population through a normal building cycle.

It should to be noted too that there is a need to replace much of our existing stock which is old, cold and unhealthy. So we should be building about double the numbers we currently are. In other words, be sitting about top of the building cycle range for many years to come - mentioned in the above paragraph

Hugh Pavletich
www.PerformanceUrbanPlanning.org
Christchurch

Trevor - you're making stuff

Trevor - you're making stuff up again!

"But there are many people about the place who haven't spent any money on investment houses and have instead been quietly saving and investing profitably elsewhere. They are the people helping to keep HMS New Zealand afloat and on a true course."

Maybe they have nothing, or only have one negative equity house. Maybe they lost a lot in finance companies, or are deleveraging - we really don't know ... how many? Don't know?

Is investment home ownership and investing profitably elsewhere mutually exclusive or a frequent occurance? Who knows?

Who knows? But I don't pretend to know.

 You really can't imagine any

 You really can't imagine any form of wealth that doesn't involve houses, can ya? Speaking for myself I have enough available savings to buy 3 1/2 averagely priced NZ houses without having to get a mortgage, and if I cashed out completely I could easily buy at least 5 of them or probably 6 to 6 1/2 depending upon when I cashed out. That's not boasting, it's a fact I feel compelled to explain since you can't believe that there are "rich" people around NZ with no investment properties, and there'll be a heap of people with more than me and who also didn't get conned into the property Ponzi scheme. When property prices finally settles in a few years those of us with no debt and plenty of cash on hand will be expected to bail out you dolts with nothing but debt and mortgagee sales to your name, but don't hold your breath because I will be doing everything I can to keep my money being wasted in that way.

Anonymous, I have cut out

Anonymous,

I have cut out your personal abuse of the other commenter. Do it again and you are banned.

Bernard

Hi Hugh Interesting to

Hi Hugh

Interesting to contrast your view with previous threads a while ago that we don't know how many new builds we need - confounded by changes in occupancy. I just don't know - 25,000 could be oversupply.

What I do agree that the housing stock is poor - leaky homes + under-maintained and under-spec'ed homes make up a large amount of the stock - (Trevor - this is supported by BRANZ and other research).

Many of these are rentals, and raises the issue of why the government throws a $1billion a year at supporting a low quality product. But on reflection, we have LAVs in defence and leaky schools.

You have to admit the Aussies

You have to admit the Aussies are passionate about their game on the sports field.

Actually a rev up like this in the video clip might be quite effective, he pitches it to his audience and doesn't make the mistake of trying to bring up too many things to consider -any worthwhile sports coach/captain knows to keep it simple at half time to get maximum focus. Might not meet the expectations of the liberal intelligentsia but what have they achieved on the sports field anyway?

FYI to all, great piece here

FYI to all, great piece here on Zerohedge about the Goldman settlement.

"The dirty little secret on Wall Street was that all too often, due diligence was a sham. People went through the motions without a thorough understanding of what they were doing, like kids who write a report by plagiarizing the encyclopedia. Investors saw triple-A ratings and stopped thinking. Goldman didn’t need to lie in order to sell “shitty deals.” It only needed to find a greater fool with an impressive resume at a multibillion-dollar institution who didn’t ask too many questions. And it was able to keep the scam going because all CDOs remain shrouded in secrecy to this day.

"The only people who can buy access to CDO performance data on ABSNet are actual investors, who are subject to nondisclosure agreements. "The risk to Goldman was that more of its dirty laundry would be exposed. As we learned David Viniar’s testimony before the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission, the company remains in lockdown mode. And once again, the S.E.C. shows little appetite for digging deeper, especially since its new COO of the Enforcement Division is a 30-year-old kid from Goldman."

Everyone should read Michael Lewis' The Big Short to get an understanding of this.

Goldman (another investment banksters) get away with it again

cheers

Bernard

Anonymous 3:48pm Now, that is

Anonymous 3:48pm

Now, that is really making stuff up - about what is in my head. I can imagine it, because I've made lots of non-housing investments. Just trying to expand the debate beyond "he said she said, PI vs anti-PI stuff". Next investment will be a start-up business. Nothing to do with housing.

Always question assumptions.

"But there are many people

"But there are many people about the place who haven't spent any money on investment houses and have instead been quietly saving and investing profitably elsewhere."

Yep.. thu saving and/or would be more accurate, and they are not the sort of people brag at a BBQ..."hey I have $xxx k in the bank" doesnt go down well, where as "yep have 5 rentals" does or did....And lets face it those 'savers' generally dont appear that way, not a fancy car, or label cloths, (thats how they manage to save) but generally quietly go on about their business.
Hmm most I know also happen to be a bit old school..young BBs ad low or nil mortgage on the home.
Gone hard out getting freehold, because of that modest in their lifestyle and the money once the mortgage is cleared , children left home sort collects in the hall cupboard.

They IS life outside real estate believe it or not.
Make quite a kiling in the States right now, pick up a few 1st gen , genuine Z28, SS , RS camaros...doesnt matter what the next boom or bubble will be..the 'high flyers' will want one ...

From NZX news: ''Two Nelson

From NZX news:

''Two Nelson businessmen who owned the majority of failed financier LDC Finance have agreed to a life ban on being directors after they offered securities without any paperwork.

Andrew Harding and Murray Schofield admitted their Finance & Investments partnership operated as a finance company open to the public by providing loans and accepting deposits without having a registered prospectus or investment statement''.

Isn't there someone else in the news recently who has been doing the same thing as these two guys?

Whoever it was, ah, they were

Whoever it was, ah, they were probably just 'the front' for other people who go caught and banned last time. Banned as a Director? Means absolutley nothing in practice in this country.

Example: "His partner, Sharon

Example: "His partner, Sharon Bartlett, was listed as the only director of his 49 companies mainly for convenience, he said."
http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/549464

Bernard - there was one

Bernard - there was one comment on the Mortgage article thread from yesterday - Anonymous @ 8pm - the Provincial Solicitor guy. In case a good number of people missed it - would it be worth highlighting as a separate article? It would be particularly helpful encouraging other solicitors etc to comment as well I think.

Hugh Pavletich
www.PerformanceUrbanPlanning.org

Yes, I agree it was a

Yes, I agree it was a worthwhile contribution

Wakey wakey..time to pull

Wakey wakey..time to pull your head out of the beach!
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article21128.html
"When, not if, interest rates rise from their present near-zero levels, US debt payments will soar because every percentage point rise in interest rates adds an additional $120 billion in interest payments. And if inflation were to take hold, rates could easily rise to 10 or 15 percent, as in the 1970s stagflation era. If that were to happen, interest payments alone would gobble up over 90 percent of government tax revenues. With this kind of economic future on the horizon, is it any wonder the US dollar is in irreversible decline?"

Wally, its "when" not

Wally, its "when" not "now"....it could be next year, sure but I wouldnt bet on that, within a decade, unlikely, within 20? probably....and by inflation i mean 8%+ and not 3~5%...thats "normal"....

For me right now its looking like deflation will be in the US before xmas, then its in for a few years at least....and I mean over 5....and NZ, well where the US goes we will follow, our milk exports will drop...unemployment could double....that isnt an inflationary scenario anytime soon.

regards

Keating came from a working

Keating came from a working class background, left school at 15 and doesn't have any tertiary qualifications.

What are the chances of a kid in similar circumstances making it to the top in politics (or even business) today? None. Zero.

Just shows you how much things have changed and not necessarily for the better from the 70s and 80s to today. People are overly obsessed with credentials today.

The UK political scene (MPs, advisors, reporters etc) is INCREASINGLY dominated by Oxbridge. And it seems you need an Ivy League degree to get on the supreme court or other high administration position.

A lot of talent must be going to waste. In addition excessive credentialism makes it difficult for people to even shift around within their field of expertise let alone be considered for something even slightly outside of what they have direct training and experience in.

i'm also an admirer of the

i'm also an admirer of the french antique clock-collector,Paul Keating...i worked in Aust. radio during part of his "reign" and saw him as a razor-sharp, erudite man and, as BH says, very much unappreciated for what he actually did for the Aust economy..lots of rumour and innuendo swirled around him mainly that he was gay and that was the reason for his marital split but i think that was just the page 3 media dogs stirring the pot.

a great rave he's laid out in the Age on crazy old silver fox, bob hawke...bob's wife blanche used to live in herne bay in AK for quite some time.
rock on elves!

We should we have a picture

We should we have a picture on the wall of the Pope, or Kennedy.

You must be joking!

Keating? out of his depth

Keating? out of his depth and time. Bernard and Hugh P here, get the same comment from me.

Australia is a sand-pit, and there is currently a demand for sand. So what? There is also a problem - as with every sand-pit, Australia is finite. It complies with the laws of exponential extraction (the coal-shipping to China is staggering) and peak-thence-depletion.

I have an Aussie better half, and spent those years there too, Bernard, but we reckon this country is more capable of sustaining human life long after a sunburnt country reverts to supporting a few hundred thousand walkabouters. You just don't get it, do you?

Hugh - I've said it before. It's not a problem of cheap peripheral land anymore, it's a problem of embedded energy, and the remaining amount of it left available. It's also now a displacement issue, food vs water vs houses. If fiscal growth (wealth increase) was possible, price wouldn't matter. I drove round Pegasus today - plenty of sections there....

What was more interesting, was that I was looking from my point of view (passive solar is my thing), and I didn't see one building there, or in any Canty subdivision, which looked vaguely solar. I.e. capable of supporting the occupants post peak energy.

What is it with Canty designers? Actually, that's not fair - what is it with most designers?

Face the view and put the loo to the North. Exellent!

And Bernard - the shakeup of the '80's only signalled that the end-game of growth was approaching. Limited opportunities, essentially, and a whole lot of 'little men' who needed to feel bigger via their pile of loot. Some of us, of course, value folk for their contribution to society. An almost totally exclusive sub-set.