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OCR

Global asset markets struggled for direction as investors looked ahead to key central bank meetings this week. Some see the Bank of Japan raising rates and ending curve control. US 10-year treasury yields move higher
18th Mar 24, 7:30am
Global asset markets struggled for direction as investors looked ahead to key central bank meetings this week. Some see the Bank of Japan raising rates and ending curve control. US 10-year treasury yields move higher
US PPI inflation comes in hot; US retail sales weaker than expected, consistent with a shift down in consumer spending. US Fed rate cut expectations pushed back. Oil prices at new four-month high as IEA now looking for a supply deficit through the year
15th Mar 24, 7:48am
US PPI inflation comes in hot; US retail sales weaker than expected, consistent with a shift down in consumer spending. US Fed rate cut expectations pushed back. Oil prices at new four-month high as IEA now looking for a supply deficit through the year
Global equity markets consolidate near record highs in the absence of first-tier economic data. There is growing expectation that the Bank of Japan will exit from its negative interest rate policy next week, on rising wages
14th Mar 24, 7:53am
Global equity markets consolidate near record highs in the absence of first-tier economic data. There is growing expectation that the Bank of Japan will exit from its negative interest rate policy next week, on rising wages
[updated]
Stats NZ says food prices fell 0.6% in February, while rent increases showed signs of stabilising and domestic airfares went up again; economists see 'upside risks' to March quarter inflation figures
13th Mar 24, 11:31am
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Stats NZ says food prices fell 0.6% in February, while rent increases showed signs of stabilising and domestic airfares went up again; economists see 'upside risks' to March quarter inflation figures
Kiwibank economists say central banks will ultimately need to have looser inflation targets in a 'world of rapidly rising, climate-related, costs
13th Mar 24, 9:34am
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Kiwibank economists say central banks will ultimately need to have looser inflation targets in a 'world of rapidly rising, climate-related, costs
US CPI data a touch higher than expected, providing no fuel for those looking for an imminent Fed rate cut. US Treasury yields up 5-6bps across the curve; USD modestly higher. BoJ speculation on imminent rate hike continues
13th Mar 24, 7:47am
US CPI data a touch higher than expected, providing no fuel for those looking for an imminent Fed rate cut. US Treasury yields up 5-6bps across the curve; USD modestly higher. BoJ speculation on imminent rate hike continues
US Treasury yields push higher, with supply factors weighing on the market and caution ahead of tonight's key US CPI report. Currency markets well contained but yen continues to outperform on speculation of a hawkish BoJ pivot as soon as next week
12th Mar 24, 7:39am
US Treasury yields push higher, with supply factors weighing on the market and caution ahead of tonight's key US CPI report. Currency markets well contained but yen continues to outperform on speculation of a hawkish BoJ pivot as soon as next week
US labour market data was mixed. Payrolls beat estimates but there were downward revisions to prior months and the jobless rate unexpectedly rose. It provided few solid signals for policymakers ahead of the FOMC next week
11th Mar 24, 7:31am
US labour market data was mixed. Payrolls beat estimates but there were downward revisions to prior months and the jobless rate unexpectedly rose. It provided few solid signals for policymakers ahead of the FOMC next week
Assistant Governor Karen Silk says the RBNZ has been consistently saying it will hold rates until inflation is heading back to 2%
8th Mar 24, 10:02am
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Assistant Governor Karen Silk says the RBNZ has been consistently saying it will hold rates until inflation is heading back to 2%
Powell: Fed "not far" from having the confidence to cut rates. ECB on hold, with a June rate cut signal. Wage data and commentary raise chance of BoJ ending negative policy rate stance as soon as March. US and European equities up 1% to fresh record highs
8th Mar 24, 7:49am
Powell: Fed "not far" from having the confidence to cut rates. ECB on hold, with a June rate cut signal. Wage data and commentary raise chance of BoJ ending negative policy rate stance as soon as March. US and European equities up 1% to fresh record highs
Fed Chair Powell faces lawmakers; reiterates that easier policy is likely at some point this year. US ADP employment and JOLTS data in line. US Treasury yields down. USD broadly weaker with DXY index down to it lowest in over a month
7th Mar 24, 7:47am
Fed Chair Powell faces lawmakers; reiterates that easier policy is likely at some point this year. US ADP employment and JOLTS data in line. US Treasury yields down. USD broadly weaker with DXY index down to it lowest in over a month
US data print weaker again; ISM services index lower alongside more market-friendly inflation measures. Weaker equities backdrop supports US Treasuries; yields down 4-6bps for the day. China's 5% GDP growth target seen as optimistic
6th Mar 24, 7:45am
US data print weaker again; ISM services index lower alongside more market-friendly inflation measures. Weaker equities backdrop supports US Treasuries; yields down 4-6bps for the day. China's 5% GDP growth target seen as optimistic
Household spending data shows that - not unsurprisingly - food has been a big contributor to increased costs, while we've been trying to save with decreased spending on communication and recreation
5th Mar 24, 2:19pm
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Household spending data shows that - not unsurprisingly - food has been a big contributor to increased costs, while we've been trying to save with decreased spending on communication and recreation
Gareth Vaughan on ANZ NZ's erroneous OCR call, a $30t gamble that changed the world, tackling surcharging & more
5th Mar 24, 10:06am
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Gareth Vaughan on ANZ NZ's erroneous OCR call, a $30t gamble that changed the world, tackling surcharging & more
US treasury yields are higher set against the backdrop of heavy corporate supply. Currency markets subdued. Nikkei225 at record high. Eyes on China’s National People’s Congress
5th Mar 24, 8:06am
US treasury yields are higher set against the backdrop of heavy corporate supply. Currency markets subdued. Nikkei225 at record high. Eyes on China’s National People’s Congress
Kiwibank economists say that after some 'ferocious barking' and 'a lot of huffing and puffing' about potential interest rate hikes, the RBNZ has 'stripped off their wolf skin'
4th Mar 24, 11:41am
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Kiwibank economists say that after some 'ferocious barking' and 'a lot of huffing and puffing' about potential interest rate hikes, the RBNZ has 'stripped off their wolf skin'
US manufacturing ISM weaker than expected. New orders, production and employment all contracted suggesting the manufacturing sector is struggling to gain momentum. Preliminary Eurozone CPI data for February continued to fall
4th Mar 24, 8:08am
US manufacturing ISM weaker than expected. New orders, production and employment all contracted suggesting the manufacturing sector is struggling to gain momentum. Preliminary Eurozone CPI data for February continued to fall
Reserve Bank keen for fully fledged monthly CPI inflation data from Statistics NZ with regular reweightings
2nd Mar 24, 9:01am
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Reserve Bank keen for fully fledged monthly CPI inflation data from Statistics NZ with regular reweightings
Market relieved that US PCE deflators were bang in line with expectations; US 10-year rate well down from its overnight high. BoJ board member sows the seed for exit strategy from current ultra-easy policy stance, supporting JPY
1st Mar 24, 7:59am
Market relieved that US PCE deflators were bang in line with expectations; US 10-year rate well down from its overnight high. BoJ board member sows the seed for exit strategy from current ultra-easy policy stance, supporting JPY
Limited moves across global asset markets. The RBNZ’s decision to leave rates on hold at 5.5% and soften its hawkish bias sent bond yields and the NZD/USD sharply lower as the market priced out the residual risk the Bank would hike again
29th Feb 24, 8:04am
Limited moves across global asset markets. The RBNZ’s decision to leave rates on hold at 5.5% and soften its hawkish bias sent bond yields and the NZD/USD sharply lower as the market priced out the residual risk the Bank would hike again
The Reserve Bank says it has growing confidence inflation will return to target without it lifting the Official Cash Rate above 5.50%
29th Feb 24, 5:00am
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The Reserve Bank says it has growing confidence inflation will return to target without it lifting the Official Cash Rate above 5.50%
Reserve Bank leaves Official Cash Rate unchanged at 5.5% and says risks to the inflation outlook are now 'more balanced' but there is a limit to its ability to 'tolerate upside inflation surprises'
28th Feb 24, 2:13pm
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Reserve Bank leaves Official Cash Rate unchanged at 5.5% and says risks to the inflation outlook are now 'more balanced' but there is a limit to its ability to 'tolerate upside inflation surprises'
Market ignores chunky downside misses to US consumer confidence and durable goods orders data. Pricing of rate hike chance fades leading into RBNZ MPS today, now just priced at a 20% chance; strong analyst consensus for no-change
28th Feb 24, 7:43am
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Market ignores chunky downside misses to US consumer confidence and durable goods orders data. Pricing of rate hike chance fades leading into RBNZ MPS today, now just priced at a 20% chance; strong analyst consensus for no-change
Girol Karacaoglu suggests we need to move away from a price (interest-rate) centred monetary policy implementation regime and we need to control the growth of the aggregate balance sheet of the banking system
27th Feb 24, 8:35am
18
Girol Karacaoglu suggests we need to move away from a price (interest-rate) centred monetary policy implementation regime and we need to control the growth of the aggregate balance sheet of the banking system
Global rates push higher, driven by Europe and heavy US bond supply; US 10-year rate up 6bps from NZ close. Long NZD positions pared ahead of RBNZ MPS; market pricing for near-term rate hikes eased back a little
27th Feb 24, 7:36am
Global rates push higher, driven by Europe and heavy US bond supply; US 10-year rate up 6bps from NZ close. Long NZD positions pared ahead of RBNZ MPS; market pricing for near-term rate hikes eased back a little