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Jason Wong

About

Jason Wong is BNZ’s currency strategist, producing analysis that informs the NZD view. He is also a part of National Australia Bank’s (NAB) Global FX Strategy team, which covers currency markets more broadly, with a focus on the G10 currencies.

Member for

9 years 7 months

Latest articles

USD falls
NZD firms ahead of US and Canadian rate cuts
Markets ignore stronger US data, focused on prospects for a protracted Fed easing cycle, seeing Treasury yields edge lower while the USD shows a broadly based fall. EUR rises to a four-year high
17th Sep 25, 7:43am
by Jason Wong
Markets ignore stronger US data, focused on prospects for a protracted Fed easing cycle, seeing Treasury yields edge lower while the USD shows a broadly based fall. EUR rises to a four-year high
NZD stacks
NZD drifts higher
Ahead of the Fed’s near-certain rate cut later this week, US equities rise to a fresh record high, alongside a modest fall in US Treasury yields and a broadly weaker USD. Little reaction to weaker China activity data yesterday
16th Sep 25, 7:44am
by Jason Wong
Ahead of the Fed’s near-certain rate cut later this week, US equities rise to a fresh record high, alongside a modest fall in US Treasury yields and a broadly weaker USD. Little reaction to weaker China activity data yesterday
NYSE trading floor
NZD and AUD outperform
US CPI data close to market expectations. Initial jobless claims surge to a four-year high, but driven by an unusual gain for Texas. The combination drove down US rates and the USD. ECB on hold, as expected
12th Sep 25, 7:57am
by Jason Wong
US CPI data close to market expectations. Initial jobless claims surge to a four-year high, but driven by an unusual gain for Texas. The combination drove down US rates and the USD. ECB on hold, as expected
NZD little changed despite wobbles elsewhere
Significant downward revision for US non-farm payrolls brings brief market reaction. Focus now on upcoming PPI and CPI data. US Treasury yields push higher
10th Sep 25, 7:46am
by Jason Wong
Significant downward revision for US non-farm payrolls brings brief market reaction. Focus now on upcoming PPI and CPI data. US Treasury yields push higher
NZ dollar up
NZD outperforms, with gains on all the key crosses
Global rates push down as market sees a protracted Fed easing cycle ahead; 10-year US Treasury yield down to a fresh five-month low of 4.04%. USD broadly weaker
9th Sep 25, 7:38am
by Jason Wong
Global rates push down as market sees a protracted Fed easing cycle ahead; 10-year US Treasury yield down to a fresh five-month low of 4.04%. USD broadly weaker
NYSE trading floor
USD grinds higher; NZD underperforms, falling on all the key crosses
US economic data mixed, with labour market data weaker than expected but a stronger ISM services survey. Rates lower, as the market positions itself for a soft US payrolls report
5th Sep 25, 7:53am
by Jason Wong
US economic data mixed, with labour market data weaker than expected but a stronger ISM services survey. Rates lower, as the market positions itself for a soft US payrolls report
dented risk sentiment
Sentiment sours sharply
Bonds and equities have been hit as investor appetite for both soured; UK 30-year rate rises to its highest level since 1998. Global rates moderately higher and US and European equities lower, down more than 1%
3rd Sep 25, 7:37am
by Jason Wong
2
Bonds and equities have been hit as investor appetite for both soured; UK 30-year rate rises to its highest level since 1998. Global rates moderately higher and US and European equities lower, down more than 1%
Wall Street closed
Gold and silver prices hovering near record highs
Markets quiet with the US on holiday; no reaction to the court ruling that confirmed Trump's country tariffs imposed under emergency law were illegal. US equity futures and European equities up slightly. Global rates up slightly
2nd Sep 25, 7:37am
by Jason Wong
1
Markets quiet with the US on holiday; no reaction to the court ruling that confirmed Trump's country tariffs imposed under emergency law were illegal. US equity futures and European equities up slightly. Global rates up slightly
NYSE trading floor
Downward pressure extends on NZ rates, with swap rates probing fresh multi-year lows
Risk appetite higher, seeing US equities probe fresh record highs. US Treasuries curve flattens, USD broadly weaker; NZD recovers. NZ rates fall to fresh lows
29th Aug 25, 7:55am
by Jason Wong
Risk appetite higher, seeing US equities probe fresh record highs. US Treasuries curve flattens, USD broadly weaker; NZD recovers. NZ rates fall to fresh lows
downward pressure
Domestic swap rates fall to multi-year lows, with steeper curves
Mild market reaction to Trump firing Fed Governor Cook. Legal battle likely. The further undermining of Fed independence sees lower short rates and the steepest Treasuries curve since 2021. USD broadly weaker
27th Aug 25, 8:01am
by Jason Wong
Mild market reaction to Trump firing Fed Governor Cook. Legal battle likely. The further undermining of Fed independence sees lower short rates and the steepest Treasuries curve since 2021. USD broadly weaker
USD and AUD compasses
USD broadly stronger. NZD a touch weaker
Markets have settled after Friday's significant price action post Powell’s Jackson Hole speech. Small changes in US equities and rates; Chinese equities continue their strong run
26th Aug 25, 7:54am
by Jason Wong
Markets have settled after Friday's significant price action post Powell’s Jackson Hole speech. Small changes in US equities and rates; Chinese equities continue their strong run
NYSE trading floor
NZD steady, while moderate falls for EUR, GBP and JPY
Markets cautious ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole; hawkish soundbites from FOMC members and stronger PMI data unhelpful to the case for an imminent rate cut. Market pares pricing of Fed rate cuts
22nd Aug 25, 8:02am
by Jason Wong
Markets cautious ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole; hawkish soundbites from FOMC members and stronger PMI data unhelpful to the case for an imminent rate cut. Market pares pricing of Fed rate cuts
pressure
NZD soft ahead of expected and well-priced RBNZ easing
US equities are weaker, led by a notable fall in tech stocks. The risk-off vibe has seen US Treasuries well supported, with modest falls in rates. Commodity currencies have underperformed
20th Aug 25, 7:51am
by Jason Wong
US equities are weaker, led by a notable fall in tech stocks. The risk-off vibe has seen US Treasuries well supported, with modest falls in rates. Commodity currencies have underperformed
NZD USD balance
NZD outperforms, showing modest gains on the crosses
Markets distracted by Ukraine war negotiations, otherwise little movement as northern summer holidays crimps activity. US Treasury yields are slightly higher overnight; USD is broadly stronger
19th Aug 25, 7:37am
by Jason Wong
Markets distracted by Ukraine war negotiations, otherwise little movement as northern summer holidays crimps activity. US Treasury yields are slightly higher overnight; USD is broadly stronger
NYSE trading floor
NZD a worst-performer
US PPI data much stronger than expected, with big jumps in both headline and core rates. Data drove up US rates, but market still shows strong conviction in a 25bps rate cut next month. USD broadly stronger
15th Aug 25, 7:53am
by Jason Wong
US PPI data much stronger than expected, with big jumps in both headline and core rates. Data drove up US rates, but market still shows strong conviction in a 25bps rate cut next month. USD broadly stronger
USD falls
USD broadly weaker
US CPI data were close to market expectations; of note the pass-through of tariffs into goods prices was less than expected. Market saw this as giving the Fed the green light to cut rates next month. RBA cuts as expected
13th Aug 25, 8:04am
by Jason Wong
US CPI data were close to market expectations; of note the pass-through of tariffs into goods prices was less than expected. Market saw this as giving the Fed the green light to cut rates next month. RBA cuts as expected
shakedown
NZD slightly weaker
Little market reaction to the alarming direction of US policy after Trump's move to invoke an export tax on some of Nvidia and AMD's chip sales, as a quid pro quo for access to China
12th Aug 25, 7:46am
by Jason Wong
2
Little market reaction to the alarming direction of US policy after Trump's move to invoke an export tax on some of Nvidia and AMD's chip sales, as a quid pro quo for access to China
NYSE trading floor
NZD slightly stronger on all crosses
Bloomberg reports Waller emerging as top candidate to replace Powell. Higher US tariffs kick in; Trump threatens 100% tariff on semiconductors, but carve-outs mean little impact for most. BofE votes 5-4 to cut rates
8th Aug 25, 7:56am
by Jason Wong
Bloomberg reports Waller emerging as top candidate to replace Powell. Higher US tariffs kick in; Trump threatens 100% tariff on semiconductors, but carve-outs mean little impact for most. BofE votes 5-4 to cut rates
stagnation and inflation
Tariffs and labour market weigh on the NZD
US ISM services survey had a stagflationary vibe with the index falling while the prices paid index rose to a 30-month high. US equities modestly weaker, US Treasury yields slightly higher
6th Aug 25, 7:46am
by Jason Wong
US ISM services survey had a stagflationary vibe with the index falling while the prices paid index rose to a 30-month high. US equities modestly weaker, US Treasury yields slightly higher
buy the dip
NZD flirts with 59 USc and underperforms
US equities bounce-back after Friday's lurch down as investors buy the dip. Oil prices down as market eyes greater OPEC+ supply
5th Aug 25, 7:52am
by Jason Wong
US equities bounce-back after Friday's lurch down as investors buy the dip. Oil prices down as market eyes greater OPEC+ supply
US Federal Reserve Chair Powell answers reporters' questions at the FOMC press conference on May 3, 2023
NZ & Australia await US tariff hikes
Fed keeps policy unchanged. US economy bounces back 3% in Q2 after 0.5% contraction in Q1; core PCE deflator higher than expected. Data pushes up USD and US rates
31st Jul 25, 7:54am
by Jason Wong
Fed keeps policy unchanged. US economy bounces back 3% in Q2 after 0.5% contraction in Q1; core PCE deflator higher than expected. Data pushes up USD and US rates
USD, Abraham Lincoln
USD broadly stronger
Decent rally in US Treasuries overnight, with various drivers at play. US-China end trade talks. China says both sides agree on maintaining the truce. Oil prices up nearly 4%. IMF upgrades global growth outlook
30th Jul 25, 7:50am
by Jason Wong
Decent rally in US Treasuries overnight, with various drivers at play. US-China end trade talks. China says both sides agree on maintaining the truce. Oil prices up nearly 4%. IMF upgrades global growth outlook
Both the NZD and AUD slip on global forces
Early joy on US-EU trade deal quickly evaporates, with euro slumping 1.3%; European equities and rates down modestly. USD broadly stronger. Oil rises
29th Jul 25, 7:52am
by Jason Wong
Early joy on US-EU trade deal quickly evaporates, with euro slumping 1.3%; European equities and rates down modestly. USD broadly stronger. Oil rises
Global financial markets calm
Trump hardens his position on EU tariffs. Markets see no chance of a US July rate cut despite Trump's shouting. Political uncertainty in Japan
21st Jul 25, 7:36am
by Jason Wong
Trump hardens his position on EU tariffs. Markets see no chance of a US July rate cut despite Trump's shouting. Political uncertainty in Japan
NYSE trading floor
Higher NZ inflation track ignored by wholesale markets
Stronger than expected US economic data, including retail sales, support US equities and the USD. Little net impact on the bond market
18th Jul 25, 7:52am
by Jason Wong
Stronger than expected US economic data, including retail sales, support US equities and the USD. Little net impact on the bond market