American activity rises, sentiment slips; Japan eyes higher inflation; Taiwan has inflation under control; Aussie sentiment slips; UST 10yr 4.42%; gold up again but oil slips again; NZ$1 = 60.5 USc; TWI-5 = 69.5

I have a kid in high school and I concur. Mum was a teacher and she and her retired friends generally feel the kids have slipped two academic years over the last 30. So what they taught to a year 11 in 1995 would be tough for your average year 13 now. They feel that kids resort to devices too soon, so instead of being a tool to augment knowledge it becomes the knowledge.

Yes you just bet me to it, this is a real cultural change where Retail is not seen as enough of a job and probably does not pay enough above welfare to warrant the huge inconvenience of working.

Social welfare provides a safety net but 9.4% of the working age population received a main benefit (these numbers do not include those receiving Working For Families tax credits) and seem comfortable relaxing in the net instead of contributing.

Yet.. they will all accept the upcoming increase and state - we don't make the rules.

Murray good to see you are one of the 30% of the population that still considers MSM relevant... ;)

But in regards to wage rises...

For the June 23 year median weekly earnings from wages and salaries grew by 7.1 percent ($84) to reach $1,273. This was the second-largest annual rise since the series began in 1998, surpassed only by the previous year’s annual increase. 

In the same period New Zealand’s consumers price index increased 6.0 percent.

So by the sounds of it it's not the Chief Forecaster that is out of touch...:)

I will say however that the stark miss-parity between what we pay our critical services and that of Australia needs addressing urgently, and yes I would say before any MP's get their pay rise.

Perhaps they should link MPs remuneration to the minimum wage. [evil grin]

And those 3 jobs you mentioned all carry a significant risk of assault on a daily basis.

While it is a known safe haven it is much more seen as part of an investment portfolio that has sufficient diversification.  The Gold run might just be a factor of established funds having established diversification mandates needing to keep the portfolio balanced in line with those mandates.

It's rare I recommend a Bloomberg article but this opinion piece by @davidfickling is a must-read. https://bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-04-08/yellen-junks-200-years-of-economics-to-block-china-clean-tech He explains that with the "overcapacity" rhetoric towards China, Janet Yellen - and by extension America - is "rejecting what’s been one of the most fundamental principles of economics for more than 200 years: comparative advantage." He notes that this shift is all the more remarkable that it makes very little sense for plenty of reasons. Link

Couple of proverbs 

Hitching your horse to a Russian wagon has many times shown to be a bad decision 

The ultimate measure of a man is not where he stands in moments of convenience and comfort, but where he stands at times of challenge and controversy," Martin Luther King, Jr.

I'm fairly well-connected in the marketing agency space, and everyone I've spoken to there recently is seeing a noticeable slowdown (and staff are being let go or put on reduced hours).

One of the telltale signs is I'm seeing marketing agencies advertising much more aggressively. 

Marketing, after all, being the easiest cost to cut in the first instance (unless you are Callaghan Innovation dropping $170k on a very average new website, and then more money on a new logo, while cutting your science staff)

Stagflation. Low growth, higher unemployment and high inflation. But lets keep keep increasing min wage and putting commercial rents up, that will make everything all ok ...tui. If you are holding your breath waiting for 2% debt and fluffy unicorns again, that is not going to happen. Make change now.

Sunfed, Big Marketing Agency, Kate Sylvester.

I was explaining to someone some of the problems with the commercial proposition with Sunfed based on some work I had done outside NZ. The person I was communicating with got quite salty in a passive aggressive way. This attitude seems to be prevalent in NZ.

The businesses you mention are all 'nice to haves'.    

Thanks, interesting, particularly these snippets:

"If the 20th century invented the income tax system, the 21st century will need to enact a progressive wealth tax system."

and

"The battles today are still essentially between the three big families of ideas which have structured the political battles since the 18th century: liberalism, nationalism, and socialism. Today, we’re in an era where neoliberalism hasn’t collapsed but has reached its limits. What is going to come next? It is a confrontation between some form of neo-nationalism and some form of new democratic socialism, which is still very weak. This is to the advantage of neo-nationalism, which we’ve seen enjoy electoral success around the world, from the US to India. The only priority now is to construct a socialist alternative."

Tradies can't pay their tax...or is that WON'T pay their tax....from the article quoted;

Recent IRD surveying has indicated there is more acceptance around cash jobs - IRD can use other parties such as bank accounts or electronic payment service providers to identify that work has been done and payments have been made, he said.

"So that can tell us a little more about the truth of someone's position."

In some cases people just fail to file tax a return, he said.

"So we can see that transactions have been occurring and they need to file but they don't."

IRD receives about 7000 tips a year about people taking cash jobs.

A good percentage of the anonymous tips IRD received were linked to the construction industry, he said.

With insurance, taking out an insurance policy is a way to off set risk. For the vast majority of us if something bad happens we can't afford to just replace our assets if they get destroyed or repair them. In addition third party covers the possibility where we my make a mistake that impacts others and covers that cost. But government regulation has entrenched insurance as a need rather than an option. A lack of insurance could be described as an individual choosing to "self insure", where they expect to be able to cover any costs that might arise.

But the insurance industry itself has become a rip off. The entire concept of insurance and how premiums are calculated has become a fraud. Insurance companies assess a risk of any particular event occurring and establish a portion of the premium for this. The problem is if the risk isn't realised and there is excess funds left from the premium incomes in any financial period, those funds are raked off as profit, and not put away to cover the longer term risk. This is instead put off onto re-insurance. Essentially the insurance companies are ripping off their clients.

I was listening to the Of Interest Podcast with Kiwibank CEO and I think they mentioned that the banks do not have an easy way of checking that someone who has a mortgage with them also has current insurance against that property (even though it is a requirement of the loan). 

Tightly held by the same family for over 27 years...

Puts it in the era of Shipley or Bolger? But doesn't seem like Jim's style.

$750k in 1996, nice work if you can get it ($105k per annum gain)