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It will be our largest natural disaster, but it may give a fillip to the economy
By John Grant
It's been talked about for years and there has been a bucket load of research done on the potential cost of a major earthquake. (Update 2 with the Prime Minister's comment about the overall cost of the damage.)
Most of this research has centered around the potential for an earthquake in Wellington. Christchurch was never a city that was seen as having the potential for a major event; well that was the case until 4.30am this morning.
An earthquake initially thought to have been of 7.4 magnitude and then downgraded to 7.1 on the Ricter scale struck just west of Christchurch city in an outlying rural area of Darfield.
It was estimated to be at a depth of 33 km's and was felt as far noth as the central parts of the North Island. People were woken from their beds in Wellington.
The previous largest eathquake to strike in a modern residential area was in 2007 in Gisborne, an earthquake that measured 6.8. The 1931 Napier earthquake measured 7.8
The damage caused by this event is extensive. Many facades on buildings have collapsed and their is considerable damage to infrastructure with some roads and bridges closed.
Water and raw sewage has been running down some local streets.
Related Topics
But the significant areas of cost will be in the numerous houses that have suffered damage to the structure of the buildings, and to the contents. Many precious items from TV's to antiques have been smashed to pieces during the 1 minute shake.
The Earthquake Commission (EQC) will bear the brunt of the residential losses. They cover the first $100,000 of damage to houses and $20,000 on contents. A 1% excess (minimum of $200) applies to every claim.
Insurers will also be counting the cost. They will foot the bill for all commercial losses including the majority of the infrastructural costs where councils insure this through specialist insurance companies.They will also foot the bill for residential claims in excess of the EQC limits.
Re-insurers will be impacted as catastrophe treaties are triggered.
What will it end up costing?
The cost of the cleanup could run into billions of dollars, Prime Minister John Key said. Treasury has advised him that their estimate is about $2 billion.
It's a real guesstimate at this early stage. However the Gisborne earthquake cost the EQC $28m. Christchurch is around 10 times the size of Gisborne and this earthquake is larger. It is therefore likely that the EQC share of the cost will likely be in the $300 to $500 million mark as a minimum.
The insurer's share of this can be also measured from the Gisborne benchmark. That earlier one cost insurers $31 million and on this basis Christchurch is likely to be something in excess of $750 million.
Uninsured losses (and those covered by insurers that are not part of the Insurance Council of New Zealand) are likely to add to this. This disaster is likely to end up costing something north of $1.5 billion.
It is somewhat ironic that this is a similar figure to the estimated initial losses surrounding recently collapsed South Canterbury Finance.
The upcoming remedial projects will however have a positive upside for the economy, as money is transferred from overseas re-insurers accounts to local builders, and others involved in repair work in Canterbury.
Here are pictures from a reader, ChrisJ.
166 Comments
I spent the day inspecting
I spent the day inspecting and securing our 25 odd Christchurch rental properties.
The scale of destruction is staggering.
One of our properties (a substantial 1920s 2 storey property in 7 flats) lost 3 chimneys completely destroying the tile roof and wrecking most of the ceilings. All walls need major plaster repairs, you can see daylight through the ceiling so there will inevitably be rain damage, skirtings have detached from the walls I'd estimate $150-200k damage on this one property alone and it doesn't look bad from the street. All of the tenants have had to move out (we're insured for rent fortunately).
Almost every property we own has some damage (mainly chimneys collapsed, some with slumped foundations, and lots of cracks). The total cost is going to be much larger than estimated.
In St Albans, Merivale, Avonside, Central City the vast majority of chimneys are gone.
In Avonside, Avondale, Aranui houses have been sucked into the ground as the land liquified. I've seen houses today tilting up perhaps half a metre higher on one side than the other. Others slumped half a metre into the ground. Whole streets around the lower Avon may need demolished and to my eye appear to have sunk so much that they are now near river level hence the huge amount of flooding.
Hundreds of buildings are largely destroyed, perhaps thousands are unable to be occupied. Perhaps tens of thousands have gapping holes in roofs or structural damage. At the very least hundreds possibly thousands of houses may need demolished.
If 50,000 homes need $10k in repairs that's half a billion.
1000 buildings needing $500k average repair is another half billion
2000 houses needing rebuilt that's another half billion
There's probably half a billion in infrastructure repairs (there are hundreds of kilometres of roads turned to rollercoasters, damaged bridges, broken pipes, damaged power lines etc)
I can see the number above doubling. The scale of destruction is unbelievable. This could be a $4 or $5b bill. Some streets around the Avondale bear a resemblence to New Orleans. The scale of destruction won't become clear until engineers assess the movement of some of these houses over coming weeks.
All I can say is that the property oversupply in ChCh is now gone for some time - for instance even working full tilt the property of ours I mentioned above with the most damage will take 6 months to repair. There will be billions of insurance cash (a lot from overseas reinsurers) flowing into ChCh. Many will take payouts rather than rebuild compounding the shortage.
This was not one the scenarios I envisage for the property market. This event will either turnaround or break the economy.
People of Christchurch,
People of Christchurch, heartfelt condolences for your travails, its almost imposible to get our heads around the degree of damage.The fact that our second largest city has been destroyed in a few minutes is hard to come to turns with.
The future with the rebuilding of a City of this size, from the insurance, is obviously going to create a boom time.How can it not?
Thank you Chris for your very
Thank you Chris for your very impressive and moving article. I wish you all the best.
As I wrote many times before next to economic, social and political issues natural events, especially caused by Climate Change will increasingly influence the world economy. The combination is not only new, but can have devastating consequences in the current situation - circumstances, which most economy experts are underestimating.
This lead to the question: Is our “3 Pillar Economy” (Property/ farming (dairy) and tourism) to delicate ? Should we not develop a more diverse, versatile and more self- sufficient economy ? We are in many ways far to dependent from foreign countries, products, skill and money ?
Re: 6 months to repair....how
Re: 6 months to repair....how will you get the tradesmen? ie Is that how long the work will take work or timescale to get a builder and then get it done? I assume there will be a limited number available and they will be charging what they want for their time....and the council etc could well prioritise where they go...
One of the scenarioes our business looked at was what happens in an event like this....each major building takes 2 years? to complete.....Wellington could do maybe 10 per year? Govn / public infrastructure would take priority, private businesses could well find they wait years for rebuilding to start...so the business good will and name etc disappears after so many months....
regards
Many thanks Chris_J. We've
Many thanks Chris_J. We've had different points of view over the years. But I really appreciate the effort you've gone to explain what you're seeing and what you think it might mean. Many thanks for the photos too.
I welcome any other anecdotes and views on what this quake means for business, finance, property and the economy.
cheers
Bernard
Hey, what a pity the
Hey, what a pity the government just threw away a buttload of cash in Timaru the other day?
The people of Christchurch probably could have used that right now.
At least it's all Canterbury.
Will the people who got their SCF taxpayer welfare payments donate it to the Earthquake Relief fund, do you think?
Nope, you're right, and I agree: they won't.
I don't know why a lot of
I don't know why a lot of people seem to think that SCF involves only people living in South Canterbury.
SCF has offices all over NZ.
It is likely that many people have been affected in the same week by the collapse of SCF and the earthquake and there are a lot of very unhappy people out there.
So I think anyone posting comments which try to develop a connection between the SCF receivership announcement and the earthquake are just running out of ideas of what else to say.
Will the people who got their
Will the people who got their SCF taxpayer welfare payments donate it to the Earthquake Relief fund, do you think?
i just heard the govnment has
i just heard the govnment has signed off the crafer deal , any one know anything??????????
As I wrote many times
As I wrote many times before next to economic, social and political issues natural events, especially caused by Climate Change will increasingly influence the world economy. The combination is not only new, but can have devastating consequences in the current situation - circumstances, which most economy experts are underestimating.
Riiiggghhhtttt.... so the
Riiiggghhhtttt.... so the earthquake was caused by climate change.... are you really sure you are saying that??
There is a reasonabe quetion
There is a reasonabe quetion to be answered, actually.
The external heating of a sphere tentd to expand it.
And if there are stresses wound up about to go, I can't see why they wouldn't be advanced. Not caused, but advanced.
You've also got the factor of
You've also got the factor of the stresses caused by the tidal movement of the moon..especially at apogee and perigee.
didn't think you were that
didn't think you were that far underwater
Perigee is due on the
Perigee is due on the 8th..thats when the moon is closest..Subjecting the earth to stronger gravitational forces.The quakes seem to be clustered around the due dates.the sea rises and falls,but the earth does as well.
Climate change, rofl. Tui add
Climate change, rofl. Tui add there.
Or maybe it was caused by the recent solar flares?
This better fits your description above, as it has been documented that solar flaring causes the earths atomsphere to expand due to the additional solar energy. This been linked to satelites losing orbit due to the fact that where once they were outside the atmosphere, after it expanded to encompass the staelite, they came under the influence of friction and lost orbit.
glaciers are receding ice
glaciers are receding ice sheets are calving - the mass of the earth is moving towards the equator - this will stretch the earth and affect its centripetal force ergo earths orbit around the sun and the moons around the earth will change.
this is just the begining
we have been sucking the lube
we have been sucking the lube out and burning it in our cars and power statons etc.
this is making the earths plates grind aginst each other instead of sliding smoothly over each other. Quite simple realy.
pfft, you buggers will draw
pfft, you buggers will draw straws on anything and everything being an effect of global warming. How do you explain gondwana lands fragmentation? did the dino's fart too much?? perhaps it was thier gas guzzlers... get a grip and engage brain.
What hasn't been factored in
What hasn't been factored in is homes or businesses that do not have private insurance coverage and can't afford the repair bill on top of their mortgage. What's that worth on the open market? Has the impact on underground infrastructure been assessed? How many businesses will close down since they can't operate until a rebuild? What happens to the employees of those businesses?
The devastation is heartbreaking to watch even at a distance on TV. I take no pleasure in saying this but I don't think the outcome will be positive for the Cantebury market, and it's impact will be felt throughout the NZ economy.
There will be opposing forces of reduced supply of intact dwellings available for rent and homeowners with a residence they can't afford to repair and need to sell. Families will be sharing homes. This disaster goes beyond property.
The only ones who will be facing an optimistic future from this tragedy is builders. You will be hard pressed finding the services a plumber, plasterer, electrician or any contractor in the next 12 months. Not to say it's they are profiteering - they're needed now more than ever.
Well its hard to see why a
Well its hard to see why a lender would allow a borrower not to have insurance on their property - for this very reason!
What a borrower' has to do',
What a borrower' has to do', and what' they do' are not always the same thing. Do you submit a copy of your current house insurance policy, each year, to your lender?
Yes I can see the
Yes I can see the availability of the trades needed to fix/ repair/ rebuild Canterbury's buildings becoming a real big problem. This plagued New Orleans for years post hurricane Katrina. You couldn't get a builder for love nor money and the cost of labour went through the roof. The only good thing here in NZ is that this disaster has coincided with a downturn in the construction industry so there is some spare capacity in the system - or have all our builders moved to Australia?
Watch the builders all use
Watch the builders all use this earthquake as an excuse to triple their asking prices overnight. Profiteers are no better than looters.
Profiteering? The average
Profiteering? The average tradesmans wage is probably $20 an our you could tripple that and still not get close to the average wage of some white collar workers who are the looters?
B O L L O C K S
B O L L O C K S
This is a great time to thank
This is a great time to thank our lucky stars that the ChCh Council didn't go on a borrowing spree and indebt themselves to the eyeballs over the past few years. This is when we get to judge the quality of our leadership.
Wonder if Parker, will enter
Wonder if Parker, will enter into a Henderson Style Agreement with the people of Christchurch. The council buys all the junk property at above market valuation and gives the seller a call option to be used if the market increases. That would be wonderful thanks Parker!
This disaster is not going to
This disaster is not going to create any new wealth due to the rebuild....we are still down $2 billion odd from 04:34 Saturday morning.Its called the Broken Window fallacy in economics and its responsibile for silly,counterproductive Government spending thats supposed to create jobs and make us wealthier but actually makes us poorer...like the rediculous cycleway project.
Educate yourself about the fallacy and you will be economically smarter than John Key.Bill English and most other politicians in NZ's history.
http://skepticwiki.org/index.php/Broken_Window_Fallacy
http://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/08/broken-window-fallacy.asp
And
Educated via wiki and
Educated via wiki and investopedia like you - bahahaha
May as well go back to reading J M Keynes.
So the broken window fallacy
So the broken window fallacy is only real if you have no insurance. So effectively the butcher does not have to buy a new window, he can still buy his new suit. All insurance in NZ is subject to reinsurance, so the money to pay the glazier comes from overseas. So yes there is a nett benefit to the local economy.
However, in the case of a large event like earthquake or tsunami, loss of production due to damaged workplaces will probably outweigh the benefits, even if economic factors are the only ones to be considered.
This is a one off chance for
This is a one off chance for the Chch authorities to move the city over to being known for 'green' buildings and away from being a pile of bricks. Time for Steel and solar technologies. That is what the govt should focus on. It is a chance for the nations real engineers, the top architects and the best builders to lead the city into the new century. I suspect much of the inner city is fit for being demolished.
The thing to remember Wolly
The thing to remember Wolly is that only a tiny percentage of the City's buildings have more than minor damage, letalone destroyed.
People are beginning to talk like this is Napier 1931 all over again, when it isn't.
5% while small is not
5% while small is not insignificant. Add to that the infrastructure and other less obvious issues and quite big, Also need to factor impact this may have on world cup, both locally and generally
http://en.wikipedia.org/wi
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1931_Hawke's_Bay_earthquake
1%...rubbish. My guess is 50%
1%...rubbish. My guess is 50% of the structures have been stressed to the point they need reinforcing and the cost of that is usually greater than a rebuild. The new codes that will be enforced will result in many facades coming off. The stone structures will come down if they cannot be reinforced with steel.
That was 7.1 at 10km deep on an unknown fault. Conclusion: Other unknown faults are likely to exist. Had this happened at 11am Friday....they would still be looking for the dead. Had it been 7.5....even at 4am....damage would have been ten times worse.
Wow! You're really
Wow! You're really enthusiastic about this earthquake! Maybe you can sell the city some copper.
I don't own any copper
I don't own any copper anon.
You mistake enthusiam for realism anon. Wait to see if any parts of the city have subsided...they will find out when the dunnies overflow!...Check out the time it has taken for wgtn to make progress in strengthening the city buildings...figure out the costs...think about the brick and stone Chch buildings as potential bombs.
None of that will be covered by insurance or govt!
This is going to be
This is going to be Christchurch's answer to Auckland's leaky building saga: a ridiculously protracted and immensely costly PITA.
Anyone who thinks it will generate wealth for Christchurch or New Zealand should not be allowed access to money.
95% of the housesand
95% of the housesand buildings have been totaly uneffected by the quake - I drove around for 2 hours with my kids in the car and could find not so much as a broken window - the exageration is like the kings new cloths - I for one will not be sucked in to the retoric and the sensationalism - OK yes I agree there is probably more than 2 to 4 billion in damage but that is from rubbish double brick buildings and stupid old chimnies on 80 year old houses - in our house we didnt even have a book for over. people from out of chch are being led to believe that the city has been flattened. There was never any contamination of the water but idiots beilived the authorities and drank botlled water for a week. The school where my kids go was totaly unefected but it was closed for a week - I lost a weeks wages staying home watching them but the teachers and administrators got paid. Parker is loving it as it has asured him the re-election.
So 20% of quake homes
So 20% of quake homes uninhabitable and 500 buildings damaged is minor? Yeah right.
Wher does this 20% come from?
Wher does this 20% come from? more like 2%
This disaster could also be
This disaster could also be an oppurtnity to fix up all those leaky building syndrome houses, though i wonder if a number of houses if they were like that would get payouts above the ecq payout from there own insurers
I expect currency will tank
I expect currency will tank on Monday. That has to be good for exporters, and interest rates will be on hold for a long while They may even drop! So while a disaster for Canterbury, and thoughts go out to them, is also a huge opportunity if grasped firmly!!!
Broken. Window.
Broken. Window. Fallacy.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parable_of_the_broken_window
Get a clue sometime.
Anon, you can expect a drop
Anon, you can expect a drop in the currency but not a huge one and it will be short lived, see what happened to the Chilean peso after the Earthquake of February 2010, as to OCR, Chile had to start hiking arround May 2010... Mind you the Chilean EQ was 8.5 Richter and the destruction covered an area the size of NZ.....If history is any reference.
No big currency fall at this
No big currency fall at this stage. NZ$ down only 0.2 USc to 71.8 USc.
http://www.interest.co.nz/news/90-seconds-9-am-bnz-what-our-biggest-fina...
cheeers
Bernard
Ah well - its good to be
Ah well - its good to be wrong sometimes :-) I see the rates have gone up - go figure!!!!
Wolly at 8.27am - I agree.
Wolly at 8.27am - I agree. Forget about lovely looking brick heritage buildings - for all their beauty this disater has well and truly shown up the fallacy of protecinig old buildings in a country riddled with faults. Rebuild everything as green buildings, get rid of fireplaces and chimneys for good, put in solar panels instead
Some quick thoughts:
1. condolences to the people of Christchurch
2. Glad there were no deaths - if there were then it would be hard to talk about the financial aspects
3. housing market implications I suspect will be neutral short term. Temporary reduced supply will be compensated for by families sharing. Longer term may be negative impacts - this event has been publicised globally, its maybe yet another reason for potential immigrants to consider the more stable Aussie to NZ. Its a wake up call to everyone that we live on a very disaster prone group of islands
4. Agree the currency may slump - again a positive out of a negative
Be glad you didn't invest in
Be glad you didn't invest in some sort of enterprise selling bricks down there matt!
Fletchers will do ok out of this. But I suspect the 'fillip' will be drawn out over a long long time period.
Losts of work for good architects and real engineers.
You are right about the wake up call for those who scream heritage at every corner. Don't fancy the chances for those Chch stone structures either.
Do you mean rebuild the very
Do you mean rebuild the very few buildings which will need to be demolished and replaced? If so I agree, because even a small number are better than none at all.
Or did you mean rebuild all Chch city buildings as green buildings? If so, why would the local authorities do so, and why would ratepayers agree to pay for it? Not gonna happen.
Let's not exaggerate the scale of the earthquake damage. The vast bulk of Chch's buildings and infrastructure has survived mostly intact and unscathed.
But definitely replace anything demolished with something better. We can all agree that's the right way to go.
" The vast bulk of Chch's
" The vast bulk of Chch's buildings and infrastructure has survived mostly intact and unscathed."
you don't know that cosmic man...you are guessing! You are hopeful!. Think again.
"why would the local authorities do so"....because if they are told by qualified engineers that buildings which are not reinforced must be reinforced asap...then the authorities have no option but to act asap!
The assumption to date was that Chch was not near a major fault line...now that is known to be wrong. Clearly the city is near such a fault line.
Those brick faced buildings were up to code!..they collapsed...many will have been weakened...hundreds of tons of brick...the whole bloody lot will need to be either reinforced or knocked down. That cost is not covered under insurance. The authorities must act or face criminal action in the event of loss of life in a repeat EQ.
Wolly, you are erring on the
Wolly, you are erring on the side of excitement. It's obvious you actually HOPE there is large scale devesattion. "It'll put New Zealand on the map! Look, look, they noticed us!"
That reminds me of the Frankton flooding event. The NZ media was more excited about the NY Times mentioning it than they were about the flooding.
As for the local authorities rebuilding everything whether it needs to be rebuilt or not...you're a clown. Let them spend many billions of ratepayers dollars (they don't actually have) on completely unnecessary work. See how fast they get re-elected.
You should take a sedative then go have a wee lie down. And cut back on the sugar, it's made you hyper.
"Devastation".
"Devastation".
You're not in the area, are
You're not in the area, are you?
Ask an engineer what will be
Ask an engineer what will be the likely outcomes for buildings in the Chch region anon and enough of your silly comments. The local authorities are liable if they do not act in the interest of public safety. The falling facades and stone walls in the inner city area will be enough to see the codes revised overnight. Time limits will be put on owners to strengthen or demolish. They will not be asking the anons for advice. Expect many facades to be torn down. They may well be replaced with steel structures and fake facades made of polystyrene and GRP.
That is absolute rubbish,
That is absolute rubbish, Matt.
Apart from chimneys timber heritage buildings and plaster damage, timber heritage buildings were unscathed. The location of buildings made all the difference. There are brand new houses in the east that now need demolished. I went past one house a 1970s on the river that had just had a total rebuild (just finished) that has been punched into a hole in the ground. The house is in one piece but will need demolished because the foundation has totally gone.
Many brick and stone buildings are also untouched. There are buildings which were rickety a couple of years ago but were earthquake strengthened and survived intact.
Chimneys, towers, gables and parapets were the biggest failures, many old brick walls don't show a crack while others are riddled with cracks, the ground conditions and foundations seem to had more influence than anything else on this.
The government should step up with a conservtion fund to protect the remaining heritage buildings and strengthen them. The buildings with total facade failures were almost all brick second levels above window shopfronts which had full ground floor shop fronts.
Plenty of modern structure were damaged too. The Gloucester St (Avonside) bridge built in the 60s or 70s I think, has major structural cracks. But then so too do some near new house foundations.
"The government should step
"The government should step up with a conservtion fund to protect the remaining heritage buildings and strengthen them".... I don't fancy your luck with that one Chris. Priority will be housing people.
As for heritage....in wgtn they replaced the dozen or so chimney tops on the largest wooden building in the southern hemisphere, with 'plastic' lookalikes and demolished the inner chimney stacks. Few people know the difference. So I suspect you can expect polystyrene and fiberglass fake facades to arrive in Chch.
The building codes will be upgraded overnight.
There is already legislation
There is already legislation in place to upgrade earthquake prone buildings which came in in 2006
Iin most cases they have about 15 years or so to upgrade, but it allows for the local government to define the extact time frames and other details.
It's taken quite seriously in some places like Wellington and Gisborne, and I think Christchurch hasn't been too bad, but they might tighten it there now possibly.
Some have like Auckland have basically treated it although they will never ever get a big quake, which may or may not be true.
The problem is always the balance between keeping the attractive older buildings that have lots of character and having safe buildings, and also the costs of upgrading.
The currency may very well
The currency may very well slump tomorrow. But then what? We will need to borrow even more to replace the funds lost this week. That's a higher currency coming up, and interest rates, as we try to attract the foreign redevlopment cash. Round about now we see why having our national savings tied up in property is a very unwise thing to have done.
Kiwi closed in NY @ 0.7209,
Kiwi closed in NY @ 0.7209, and by then the 'quake had hit.
Please correct me if I am
Please correct me if I am wrong, the EQ was at mid day Friday New York time ? .
Everyone knows that the NY
Everyone knows that the NY traders spend all their time thinking and worrying about what happens in New Zealand.
"Noo what?"
World famous in New Zealand.
They actually do have NZ and
They actually do have NZ and Aussie traders in NY! ~ and they used to, and probably still do in Chicago and on the West Coast as well.
Maybe the answer is to pull
Maybe the answer is to pull down all the new buildings, and put up old ones instead.
Well according to Stuff 20%
Well according to Stuff 20% of homes in Chch are uninhabitable. I know the media are prone to exaggeration, but even if they are close to right, this is way in excess of Napier or anything NZ has seen before. That means 60 000+ people have nowhere to live.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/4096825/Twenty-percent-of-quake-homes-uninhabitable
If anything the percentage
If anything the percentage damaged would probably be revised upwards rather than downwards. It's only been a day, so any current estimates will be based on driving around and eyeballing the obvious damage rather than any detailed inspections. Thorough inspections will take a lot of time to complete, and will probably reveal a lot of structural damage that isn't apparent from a superficial look-over.
And that has to be balanced
And that has to be balanced against the hysterical over-reaction of many, as well as the excited exaggeration by the media.
It'll probably cancel itself out.
Tim, I think the Press said
Tim,
I think the Press said 20% of quake homes. That is 20% of homes damaged by the quake. If 5% of all buildings have some quake damage then 1% of all buildings wil be unusable or uninhabitable.
Not as bad as first thought.
If stuff.co is reporting 20%
If stuff.co is reporting 20% uninhabitable then that is totally inaccurate.
They need to send their reporters to ch.ch. Yes there are buildings damaged and some roads with damage plus some infrastructure problems.
However most houses have no damage whatsoever.
My many rentals including residential and commercial have no damage to them whatsoever after inspecting yesterday.
Hey! I'm the Grump around
Hey! I'm the Grump around here! get your own handle!!!
very sad - I guess housing
very sad - I guess housing does carry disaster risks, but thats what insurance is for. Mind you from a purely financial perspective I would say this:
1) Not sure if insurance covers ALL costs (eg time spent sifting through the disaster, organisaing rebuilds, and time spent justifying costs to insurance company)
2) an earthquake (like cyclones in queensland) adds a risk premium to an area that increases insurance costs going forward and makes a place less desirable for many (esp new immigrants).
I wonder if the insurance
I wonder if the insurance compnaies will invoke the "Act of God' ( no payout) clause?
Which is precisely why NZ has
Which is precisely why NZ has an earthquake disaster fund... called EQC... has about $6b in funds to be used precisely for this sort of thing.... So plenty of cash in the kitty to fund payouts and no impact on Govt accounts etc etc....
It's limited to $100k per
It's limited to $100k per house.
I thought 100k was enough to
I thought 100k was enough to buy a mansion down south.
the real point I am making is
the real point I am making is that insurance (be it personal or govatl) is I suspect limited to costs of rebuilding etc. I doubt in moest cases it covers the enormous hassle, time, emotional harm etc etc. Not to mention the loss of future value (how much does a house in New Orleans costs these days??). Housing is an active investment, it takes time and hassle, and during disasters it takes a lot more time and hassle. This sort of thing would definately put off a lot of investors.
EQC has $250 mil instant cash
EQC has $250 mil instant cash and another $5.8 billion invested.....NZs most beautiful city, quite sad...As a caring Kiwi we will be donating to a mayoral fund, would donate whatever part of NZ this disaster occured in..
Let's hope that the $5.8bn
Let's hope that the $5.8bn provision has been better invested than in/or by SCF.
Don't be a bloody idiot....
Don't be a bloody idiot.... EQC is a statutory body and reports annually to Parliament... most of its money is invested in govt stock and other high quality securities...
SCF once had a pretty high
SCF once had a pretty high rating. They were Safe As Houses.
an unfortunate analogy
an unfortunate analogy
Really? Looks like they could
Really? Looks like they could be into all sorts of things to me!
"..Commission is aware that maximising returns without undue risk implies diversifying across a range of assets. ... The Commission has appointed investment managers who are responsible for the day to day buying and selling of stock....the Commission’s operational practices and procedures may vary across the assets dependent on the nature of the investment (for example, segregated or pooled funds)..."
http://www.eqc.govt.nz/abouteqc/investmennofndf/sipo.aspx
What happens with
What happens with the chimneys? Doesn't Christchurch have restrictions on new fireplaces, does that mean people can't replace a fireplace that has been destroyed?
I have elderly relatives
I have elderly relatives (80+ year olds) living in Christchurch who were thankful they didn't listen to their kids and others who told them to take out their wood fire, when they installed a heat pump. With no power they were still able to keep warm, have a cuppa and do some basic cooking.
In June Whakatane sustained heavy flooding. Almost 3 months on there are still around 100 homes still inhabitable. Trying to get tradespeople is quite difficult so I can imagine what destruction on the scale as happened in Christchurch will mean.
Thoughts go to those affected by the earthquake. Elley, are you folks affected?
Does anyone have any info onhow the irrigation canals, systems have held up out in the rural areas?
No, our house is fine but
No, our house is fine but we're only about 20km from the epicentre (inside smallest red circle) so feeling pretty lucky right now. And feeling even luckier after being in touch with a number of friends in Chch and being told some of the damage their houses or neighbourhood have sustained. We may have a few people staying with us for the next little while.
I just don't think those saying it's "minor" realise that it's anything but to a number of people, not to mention the stress involved. The kids are going to be too scared to sleep well for a while. I'll never forget the roaring noise and shaking, and we didn't even get hurt or have any damage so I can only imagine how those who did are feeling right now.
Back in June 2006, Twizel
Back in June 2006, Twizel residents shivered for 3-4 days without power. Their wonderful shiny new heat pumps useless. At my house I had heat and hot water, courtesy of the "dirty, labour intensive, wood pile requiring" wet-back log-burner I'd hung on to.
Not sure about irrigation
Not sure about irrigation canals around here sorry. I just wish it'd stop shaking :( Just felt another big jolt now and one of the kids is crying yet again.
Elley, I lived for a couple
Elley, I lived for a couple of decades in an area where earthquakes were common. Not necessarily big ones, though some did make the news. After a particularly big one we had 6mths of after shocks every day - usually several a day. The day the after shocks stopped it felt rather weird to be still again. The local school used to have 'earthquake drills' because of the prevalence of them-and that was long before the one that gave us the 6mths of after shocks. Scary as it can be, you need to find a way to comfort the kids and not show any fear yourself as these could go on for a long time. Think long term strategy for handling them. If you like you can email Bernard for my email address, if you need to 'talk'.
Thanks for this. I manage to
Thanks for this. I manage to pretend to be completely in control with the kids, downplaying the whole thing and telling them the shakes are nothing to worry about... all the while my heart goes crazy and legs go wobbly.
By the sounds of it I'd better get used to these small shakes. Not sure when I'll go back to our bed on the first floor though. I always knew we were in an earthquake-prone zone and felt a number of quakes over the 8 years we've been here but this big one really was something else altogether. We weren't scared and sprung into action right away when it happened but for some reason it's now that we realise what's happened that I'm on edge. I guess the gale force nor'wester we've been having since the middle of the night that seem to shake the house as well aren't helping!
Hang in there Elley. We're
Hang in there Elley.
We're all thinking of you here. Thanks for the updates.
cheers
Bernard
Bernard - if you were
Bernard - if you were thinking of me and thinking, "I bet that put the shits up Les" - you'd have been 100% correct!
Cheers, Les.
What ever it turns out to be,
What ever it turns out to be, first comes first: You have to send the police and the army to gard against looting next you must send the cleaning squads out in the streets first thing in the morning, get rid of all the rubble, pile it somewhere away from the public eye and after that is done you can count the damage... do not count on insurance money because insurers are slow and there will be damage assesment experts shortage to cope with all there is to do.
Now watch the Insurance
Now watch the Insurance companies do the "sideways shuffle,' our business was in major flood and we thought we were happily fully insured however our policy we were informed by NZI quoted water damage which was limited to rainfall not from river flooding...We were young and it cost us lots.....All insurance is now through a broker that crosses the tt and dots the i in policies....
Just as well the IMF has said
Just as well the IMF has said the NZ economy is well positioned to cope with "external shocks."
Specialy with this external
Specialy with this external shock because most of insurances are covered by Australian Insurance Cos.
Insurance companies are even
Insurance companies are even bigger crooks than finance companies. Trade on fear. And when you need them they are not there
I wonder if this will shake
I wonder if this will shake out any insurance brokers that haven't re-insured their clients ~ taken the premiums and run the risk ~ a bit like 'buying' the office Lotto ticket and keeping the cash. Mass claims tend to disclose all sorts of things!
Sitrep from the absolutely
Sitrep from the absolutely untouched north-east of Chch at Waimairi Beach: 100% habitable, no liquefaction, no problems, power, water on (we're 300m away from a coastal bore), Sewer/stormwater pipes have stayed in place, no chimneys to collapse, everyone going about their business. Also true of Forest Park and most of Parklands plus most of Tumara Park. That's over 4000 households total.
Key factors in success of this area:
So, chaps and chapesses, don't believe the MSM one-disaster-affects-everyone coverage.
The effects of the quake are in fact extremely variable. The known areas for liquefaction - around the rivers and Estuary, the peaty soils round St Albans and Papanui, and some sandy lenses over old swamp - are the ones affected. And the infrastructure damage to sewer and stormwater (pipes have literally been floated up through the road above) is a function of water table, soil types and amount of shaking. Interesting to drive through Tumara Park (between Burwood Hospital and Parklands) and see that a radius around the Travis Swamp has suffered pipe float and surface cracking, but the rest is quite simply intact.
The estimate of 20% is simply crap in terms of habitability. Chch has 160K households, so 20% is (counts on fingers) 32K dwellings. Yet only 200 people (at 2 per household, that's 100 households worth) overnighted at welfare centres. So there's an indication of the disconnect.
20% with Gib-board crack plastering needed, yeah, probably.
And the damage that Is there elsewhere is from the usual suspects: unreinforced masonry, lime-mortared bricks, untied veneer walls, and foundations that in the old days were just bricks tossed into a ring in a shallow trench and mortared over. No surprises.
The silver lining is that we won't have to worry aboot the predicted recession in the commercial construction industry, and the 20K job losses. There's a Lot of infrastructure to repair, and that will take months.
(Another decent jolt as I type, but blogging as I am in front of the log fire, with a cuppa joe at my side, and power, water on since 11 am yesterday and the camping loo deployed to ensure we don't add to the infrastructure loading, why worry?).
And a very high percentage of Chch households will be doing exactly the same thing.
I'm glad being the furtherest
I'm glad being the furtherest away isn't the only key factors of success. Definitely agree with the recent builds (our place is only 6 months old) and the underlying strata (I believe we're on firmer ground here, 20km north of epicentre than in Chch).
How can you be so cool and not worry with the jolts we're still feeling. I get wobbly legs for each one of them with the talks of another big one to be expected in the 48 hours after yesterday's big one (that said, I've also got a cuppa and lots of chocolate by my side! We didn't lose power though and have got a 20000l water tank so that's one positive thing I suppose).
The EQC has $16 billion -
The EQC has $16 billion - $2.5 billion of this readily available & insurers are flush. EQC pays first $100k per claim.
The quake will be a big boost for economy - interest rates will come down & builders elsewhere in NZ without work will have plenty to do if they move to ChCh
Kind of like being happy to
Kind of like being happy to have cancer, then. Lots of attention and care, and lots on money spent of fixing an illness. This is in no way good for the economy. GDP will show a numerical rise. The WE have to pay for it.
Nice dream Santa but I think
Nice dream Santa but I think you will find the building firms will add a minimum 20% to their charge out rate as will all the trades. The suppliers of clobber will slap a margin on as well. Both will have gst added to them. Expect the Council to lift the fees for permits and inspections. Engineers and architects will also be in on the grab. They will see it as a chance to milk the insurance mob who will find a remarkable coincidence of pricing for tenders.
I hope the government imposes
I hope the government imposes something to prevent price gouging. Builders/develops that add extra, taking advantage of the situation are scum.
Can't see it. Profiteering is
Can't see it. Profiteering is the name of the game in the property sector, and governments don't seem to have any objections to that. Watch for building trade folk charging out at enormously inflated hourly-rates. (Even more enormous than usual, that is.)
Anon; In these cases market
Anon; In these cases market laws govern. If you own a construction Co and your demand goes up by 1000% I am sure that you would become a cherry picker. The only part that the Gov could asume would be to fund a part of the cost... but price control, no. impossibe. They could try something like that but it would be totaly useless
The thing is that this was a
The thing is that this was a large earthquake, but it was no means the 'big one' A big one, say over 8, would flatten a large part of the city. I wonder how NZ would cope, if say Wellington was struck by the big one this week. This could happen, as this latest earthquake in CC may cause uneven loading on other plates, and we have had a lot of EQs around the pacific rim over the last few years.
The buildings are designed to stand up in an earthquake to prevent a loss of lives, and on the surface many ion CC appear to have stood up well, due to are good earthquake codes. But that doesn't mean that they aren't structurally damaged, and some that don't look damaged at all on the outside, may need pulling down..
Not much will survive an
Not much will survive an 8.
The hydro dams won't, for a start.
Geologists say a 7.5-8.5 is expected "any time now" in the SI Alpine fault.
For years I urged people to get a full survival kit together - not just the usual water, radio, first aid kit, etc, but things like generators, camping kitchen, solar power and hot water kits, and all the rest - but was always dismissed as a survivalist nutter.
Now I have a semi-remote dwelling available to me, one built to survive an earthquake as much as that's possible, and fully-equipped with everything my family is likely to need in the event of a longterm national disaster situation.
Funny thing, but I don't feel like a survivalist nutter: Just someone who is well prepared for these eventualities should they ever arise.
"Not much will survive an
"Not much will survive an 8"....we built the Beehive to take an 8 anon...bugger all else will though, but at least the pollys will be safe as in their basement bunker if they are buzzing when it happens........ Bet that will make Wellingtonians happy.
A buried structure may get
A buried structure may get through such a shake, but I wouldn't bet on the survival of anything above ground.
Quite a few buildings are
Quite a few buildings are designed to survive an 8+, using base isolation. Tepapa for a start.
Like I was saying an 8+ earthqauke in Wellington, will likely cost 100+billion, if not up to a trillion, if most buildings need rebuilding. It may even mean relocating the whole city and starting from new. The Hutt Valley is especially prone to damage, due to liquifaction. That would certainly trash property prices. The EQC only has reserves for about 12 billion.
I also have a rural property built out of reinforced concrete block in another part of the country, that is designed to exceed earthquake standards. The problem is getting to it, if transport links are damaged.
"Quite a few buildings are
"Quite a few buildings are designed to survive an 8+..."
My Lotto number choices are designed to maximise my chances of a first division win.
"I wonder how NZ would cope,
"I wonder how NZ would cope, if say Wellington was struck by the big one this week." - I sure don't wanna find out!!
I am just hoping that when
I am just hoping that when the big one does strike Wellington, that there will be heps of funds left in the EQC fund. Or maybe the EQC fund was never meant to cover the big one, and NZ will have to take out an international loan for that. Remember it is not 'if' but 'when' . It however may never happen in our lifetime.
My sympathy and good wishes
My sympathy and good wishes to people that have been affected by this unforeseen event. I hope you can find your feet quickly and find comfort in helping each other .
I have chosen to donate to the Salvation Army on the ground in Christchurch............they ..(I Know) do good work at times like these...and are able to offer many things in the way of appliances that may have been lost...bedding ...basic need........
even if that's just a cup of tea and a chat.
Best Wishes and will help out as I can.
I know who can fix all these
I know who can fix all these leaky broken unstable houses.... He goes by the name of CHUCK NORRIS
Chuck Norris destroys
Chuck Norris destroys earthquakes.
I Think Chuck Norris caused
I Think Chuck Norris caused te earth quakes as he was doing star jumps on the other side of the world, stomped too hard and he's foot hit christchurch.
Renters can just move out of
Renters can just move out of a damaged property but it is a bad time for the property investors out there in Christchurch. A lot of them will be in a tough situation as they face vacant tenancies or lower rents as repairs will have to be carried out in the next few months.
Wonder how many people will
Wonder how many people will just leave Christchurch altogether if they can? Renters especially will have little to keep them there, if they can find a job elsewhere rather than spend who knows how long staying with friends or family. Stay and put up with all the hassle, expense and inconvenience of reconstruction, or take off for Australia? I know which I'd pick.
Lincoln and Canterbury
Lincoln and Canterbury Universities would be winding down soon for the summer so should that not free up some accommodation options?
Uni year for most doesn't end
Uni year for most doesn't end until mid to late November. Halls of Residence, boarding schools and hostels will definitely be a useful stop-gap, but past experience would indicate that it'll take a hell of a lot longer than one summer to sort this mess out.
Regardless of what everyone
Regardless of what everyone here is saying about insurers, builders etc ONE THING IS CLEAR!. The Government will screw this up BIG TIME because screwing up things is all they know. Councils will take advantage of the situation to screw over and penalise people even more than they do now and the canterbury 'water' debate will head even faster into private hands via the excuse of 'rebuilding costs' vs public purse. Watch and learn
As for property prices in this area, they just lost half their value.
It should push the pricing
It should push the pricing down on average nationwide. It will probably tell people that investing in property in NZ has major risks, and residential property should be treated as what is is, and that is shelter. This earthquake could have happened anywhere in NZ.
"The wise man built his house
"The wise man built his house upon the rock
The wise man built his house upon the rock
The wise man built his house upon the rock
The foolish man built his house upon the liquification zone
The foolish man built his house upon the liquification zone
The foolish man built his house upon the liquification zone
...because he listened to Hugh Pave-le-tich
(of the Property Counicil).
The wise man should of seeked
The wise man should of seeked advice from Chuck Norris on where to build his house!!!
I reckon the authorities are
I reckon the authorities are playing down the reality of the infrastructure issues at this time. I would imagine at some time in the not too distant future, the liquifaction affected suburbs/neighbourhoods will be temporarily condemed due to public health issues. Folks won't be allowed to inhabit their homes, even if they are habitable. I heard some landowner talking about everyone digging a hole in the backyard to toilet in. This simply cannot be allowed to go on. I'm surprised we haven't yet had news about the need for transport of portaloos to these areas - including the CBD - and these will be needed simply for use by the clean up/re-build crews.
The news also talked about the need for empty plastic water containers. I was surprised they were bringing in tank water as opposed to bottled water - and they are telling the people taking the tank water to boil it!! Meaning, they suspect the water source of the tank water might be contaminated?
I suspect hundreds of individuals and families aren't going to be returning home anytime soon. And I'd be loathe to drink reticulated water for sometime to come - what might be the effect on the city's aquifers - we just aren't getting much science surrounding all the public health issues/implications.
Kate. NZ has good
Kate. NZ has good construction standards so I don't see a lot off damage appart from the obvious cosmetic side. Old buildings under old standards probably sufferd more but you will see that very little of the damage actualy hits the structure. I assure you that in one or two months time you won't even talk about the EQ.
Micheal --I'm not sure your
Micheal --I'm not sure your are right. Yes, we have some good building codes but that hasn't stopped new subdivisions being affected. A geologist was reported yesterday as saying that it is more important to pay attention to the ground on which the house is built , not just the building spec. Given the areas of ChCh most affected he is clearly correct. Bob Parkers comment that an earthquake can be like an iceberg --- ie. you cannot immediately see all the damage underneath , will probably be correct in many areas.
All the best to Cantabrians -
All the best to Cantabrians - what a terrible event
Just wondering what the feeling is re uninsured properties? Seems awful but what about people who have always paid their premiums. In a way if you can't afford insurance you should not own the property.
Not sure how I feel - its a very difficult one
Dunno about uninsured
Dunno about uninsured properties but they'd be covered by the govt earthquake fund?
Right now we're getting very strong gales. If that's not hurricane strength it can't be far off! Maybe it's worse for us inland of Chch but it can't be great in the city either. I don't think we'll have power for much longer, it's real bad.
No, the gov't earthquake
No, the gov't earthquake fund, or EQC, derives its revenue/fund from levies on insured properties - hence only the insured are covered by EQC.
My goodness, I just feel awful for you folks down there. Hope the power stays on!
Hmmm, not good then for the
Hmmm, not good then for the uninsured people. Hopefully there aren't too many who'd put a lot of money into a house purchase and not insure it?
Not feeling optimistic about the power but we've got candles on the kitchen bench, several torches in strategic areas and hubby is walking around in the living with a solar cap on his head lol. The emergency bags are in the car that we've taken out of the garage and which is sheltered by the house in the driveway in case of another earthquake so hopefully we're prepared :) Better be since our closest neighbours are cows and sheep which seemed to be pottering around quite happily earlier, so I doubt we'd be the first people to be rescued. At least there are no power or light poles or even tall trees anywhere close to the house. Gosh, do I love NZ (I truly do, just not feeling the love quite so much at this precise moment but it's here).
Great, the kids swing set has
Great, the kids swing set has just been lifted off the ground (and believe me, we had actually secured it pretty well and it had gone through a few nor'wester gales with no trouble) and the steel legs of the trampoline have been bent.
Looks like the wind has been causing trouble in Dunedin. I hope it's not gonna get worse here, I feel like I've had enough excitement for the week-end. Apparently Chch is not having much wind at all at present so at least that's a good thing since it's where most of the damage has occured.
I read in a report in the
I read in a report in the herald that looters have been seen in the suburbs at night. The public will sort them out if the police don't!
Both the Police and the Army
Both the Police and the Army have to be in the Streets till order is restored.
I assume the insurers will
I assume the insurers will want to recover funds so out premiums will go up......yet more inflation....
Funny that of course the premiums go up to recover costs but never drop back down....
I cant see the RB raising now....not this month...
regards
Maybe. It will be interesting
Maybe. It will be interesting to see how many 'uncovered' home owners there are. One of the first things to suffer in a downturn is..... insurance policies. As the invoices have been coming in over the last year or two, people have been saying to themselves " Do I want to pay out this $1500 ( or whatever) this year, or should I run the risk?" ( I know I've let the windscreen cover and the content cover lapse...never claimed, rational. So maybe even an increase in premiums may not get 'paid' as people cut down further, as we have had at least a i-in-80-yearer out of the way.
If you have a mortgage I
If you have a mortgage I think you have to have insurance....but yes I suspect there will be some not insured....EQC covers the first $20k contents plus $100k damage?....unless your house is totalled that should do quite a bit of repairs...though if you dont have insurance you dont pay the EQC levy? in which case do they pay out?
regards
You are 'supposed' to have
You are 'supposed' to have insurance. That'scan be different to 'having it'. Do you send a copy of your annual renewal notice to your Bank each year?
RBNZ....Roubini seems to
RBNZ....Roubini seems to think things are dire,
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/7981334/No-defence-left-aga...
Greece looks set to explode.....if their finance situation wasnt bad enough, some riots will destroy it....
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/7980291/EU-austerity-polici...
regards
Steven-O... he is still
Steven-O... he is still forecasting at poor bookmaking odds.. as the closing points to..........
“There is a 40pc chance of double-dip recession in the US, and worse in Japan. Even if it is not technically a recession it will feel like it,” he added
We will ask people from
We will ask people from Indonesia, pakistan and other countries to doanate since you kiwis don't want to donate to these regions .
Huh? I seem to recall that
Huh?
I seem to recall that there are donations going there...
regards
you Kiwi's........ would
you Kiwi's........ would suggest your offshore....or don't consider yourself as part of the wider community.
As to the non-contribution jibe...... World Vision is taking donations for relief...I had no problem forwarding one.
Take care with your collective statements as racism is a batwing door....
Eh? I've donated to those
Eh? I've donated to those
House of Ruru and family fine
House of Ruru and family fine bar a chimney and some cracks, but all very freaked. Hubby was in Haiti a month after quake there and says he's seeing same patterns of behaviour. Elley: you'd be crazy if you weren't scared but we'll get on with it eh? For me it means sleeping with clothes on; pockets full of ready-to-go stuff like keys torch cards cash. Makes me feel a little more prepared!
Old wooden houses with tin roofs rock and roll but don't seen to break up like tile toofs and bricks. We're near the river in St Martins and there is a bit of cracking and liquefaction in parts of the area, not as bad as Avonside/ Richmond, though.
ChrisJ: has got it right about taking a while to see what the damages is. The aftershocks are shallow, near Chch and continuing, and damage is still happening although hopefully the big one's done. ChrisJ: amazing report so soon after. Tallies with what I see and hear.
Best wishes to all, and get your doomboxes ready (include an old plug in phone)
Best wishes and luck to you
Best wishes and luck to you ruru.
Glad you're OK Ruru. Been
Glad you're OK Ruru. Been sleeping with clothes on too and in one of the kids'bed :) Also had torches on hand, and sure enough the power went off with the terrible winds. We found the kids' playhouse blown away and smashed up this morning. Our house is fine but our soon-to-be neighbour has had part of the roof of his brand new 3-bay-shed lifted off.
Glad your'e Ok
Glad your'e Ok Elley.......keep busy as ..I'm sure you are...and talk it out as you need to... there is nothing wrong with being afraid....it's a natural response...but can work against us if we bottle it up.
Good luck to you and yours.
Thanks, and thanks to you and
Thanks, and thanks to you and others for the support you're giving to the region. I've been donating to the SA and others for years and I'm sure they're putting the donations to good use.
As for talking it out, I probably talk too much actually :) Just as I was reading your post two minutes ago and feeling more relaxed (no big aftershock since 1pm yesterday and the wind has turned south, ie nor'wester gales are gone) there was a really good shake. Ran for a doorway again!
Nice Google maps animation of
Nice Google maps animation of quake locations. HT Petergnz via Twitter http://picasaweb.google.com/lh/photo/nmdTTZiMuO8Fz_qXADPKXA?feat=directlink
cheers
Bernard
We're in Papanui, about 6km
We're in Papanui, about 6km north-west of Christchurch centre. In this area there are a lot of chmneys down; perhaps one out of three.
My take on it is that damage is highly variable. Our house (20 years old, no chimney) is fine. Just down the street the older Haralds fabric shop is partially demolished and has a big orange X painted on it. Houses in Avonside are more of a concern; if the ground is no longer safe, your house there is a write-off and the ground cannot be used for anything more than a park, if it's not underwater (!) already that is.
I was thinking that the insurance payouts (from large international companies) would go to pay locals (builders etc.) and hence actually help the local economy in some warped way (at the expense of overseas economies). Then I learnt that the earthquake commission will be paying out the first $100K. So the insurance companies get significantly off the hook, and the people (the government) pay. So, a lose lose all round then.
So I think (guessing) most families will make small claims for broken stuff in the home. This will be covered by the earthquake commission and will be way under $100K (more like $1-$2k). Then there will be a large gap in the claim size, to those where it is a complete disaster. House and ground and absolute write-off. There $100K will be nowhere near enough, and the insuarance companies will (I'm betting) do their very best not to pay out any more.
Real estate prices in the areas where there is liquification will surely plummet.
It's a bit surreal; on our street it's life as usual, while not far away I'm sure it's a complete and utter disaster zone.
Significant chunks of New Orleans were written off in Katrina, and still have not been re-built to this day. While this is small by comparison, I'm betting there will be signs of the quake visible for years if not decades to come.
The EQC is funded from a levy
The EQC is funded from a levy imposed on all insurance policies. So you are wrong when you say "the people (the government) pay". EQC claims will not cost the government at all.
Thanks for setting that
Thanks for setting that straight.
As a matter of interest, the background they have used for the 3 News for the last two days (which shows a crumbled building in the background), is the corner of Worcester and Manchester St. The crumbled building had Alvorados mexican restaurant upstairs, and downstairs there used to be a jeweller, internet cafe and camping shop. We're so lucky the quake didn't occur during work hours!
Well, my wife is in insurance
Well, my wife is in insurance in CHC, they are flat out. My mothers house been sucked under as has the whole street in a settlement just out of CHC. My house is fine but friends up the road has the sand comming up through the floor, there house is only three years old and others around them just the same (but these are'nt as bad as the seaside communities). Others have whole back lawn sunken in the ground, springs have come out of nowhere the water table has shifted, and the roads are a real mess.
I would think an easy 2 Billion. Think of all the inner city apartments, tiles in showers cracked, walls cracked , driveways, chmineys down (every third house by looks of it) etc etc..painter/plaster/ builders/ brick layers for each one of those (they thing an easy 30000 houses). Then there is the commerical side and then water/sewrage/roading/bridges.
It is going to take years to re build as where are all the tradesmen going to come from? Growth will nearly holt in most subdivisons as be huge rebuild of houses going on, and infrastructure work taken up by local government. It will not be an easy or quick fix. Hotels and larger buildings in CBD will need major work as well.
When you start to scratch the surface I would think 4-5 billion and 16-18 months of intense work.
God bless no one seriously hurt.
Yep...it looks like some
Yep...it looks like some areas have slumped and they were lowlying to start with. The Yanks could provide radar sat data on that if only the govt would ask.
In our disaster one thing I
In our disaster one thing I remember is the Salvation Army driving in to our commercial area in their caravans with farm yard type corned beef sammies (so damn good) and cups of tea ...It was much appreciated as you forgot to eat...This is a awful for small business, as always under insured (e.g. fluctuating stock levels) .....P.S. I have made a donation to S.A.
Leaky homes to "liquified
Leaky homes to "liquified homes" - God knows whats next?
We should ask Hugh P's
We should ask Hugh P's advice
He's been on shaky ground longer than most
When you think about it, and
When you think about it, and as silly as it might initially sound, over-population once again is a contributing factor to this mess. As the city has expanded homes have been built in less and less suitable areas. The brand new homes in the new sub-division in Bexley that have all been destroyed are a case in point. Forced with the fact that all the better places are taken, people build there, then when something like this happens, they're the houses to be destroyed. Same for Kaiapoi, Marshlands (the name says it all really).
In any areas where liquifaction occured it would make sense to not build there again, but to choose solid ground instead. Trouble is there isn't solid ground left in Christchurch. I'm sure Al Barlett could say it better, but hey.
Oh no, Hugh P and Phil B
Oh no, Hugh P and Phil B would suggest otherwise.
Despite Chch being bounded by sea, Alps, water-table and now fault-line, they would have it that there is no limit to growth, and that the planet contains so much of everything that we'll never run out.
Just hope they don't allow more building on liquifaction areas (how did pegasus go?) , and give us notice when their mines get to 10 km down.
I'll be somewhere else that day.
Good luck Martin, we're only a day (or two) 's tandem bike ride away, if you need somewhere to stay.
Same for Kaiapoi, Marshlands
Same for Kaiapoi, Marshlands (the name says it all really).
....
Brookhaven? I always knew it was a haven for Pukeko not developers.
I suggest we turn to Chuck
I suggest we turn to Chuck Norris in these times of need. When the eyes of a ranger are upon you, any wrong you do he's gonna see, when your in Texas look behind you cos thats where a rangers gona be!
I said in my earlier post
I said in my earlier post that I reckoned only 2000 houses might need demolished. Now I'm not so sure, I went into one property of ours in Bryndwr (one street from Fendalton) a 1930s bungalow, I had a quick look outside as I was rushing around on Saturday it looked pretty ok. Tenants weren't there so didn't go in, my brother went in this afternoon after tenants rang, its apparently all over the place inside, floors bouncing, piles have slipped, the floors away from the front wall and it is slumped backwards. I'm shocked because it looks fine outside no cracks in the foundations, but I went back past tonight (didn't go in) and it defintely is slumping more than on Saturday morning, I think a lot of houses are still sinking, many in areas where there aren't obvious signs of damage. I'm in a modern house with 6m piles under it and its as straight as the day it was built, but travelling round Fendalton a lot of large houses look like they might be a little wobbly, I'm not sure though, they are definitely not as bad as the east but if they are still sinking maybe it will get to that 20% needing demolished, it's impossible to say right now. We are currently thinking that our Bryndwr property is a total write-off ($200k+ replacement), whereas on Saturday I thought we wouldn't be making a claim on it!
Just one other note some major buildings have been cordoned off in the CBD. St Elmo courts, an 8 storey (I think) apartment building built in the 1930s on the corner of Montreal and Hereford Sts has some serious cracks on its lower levels. An old 1960s 8 level office building is cordoned off on Madras St.
Initially I thought the building work would be a boost, but a huge number of business premises are destroyed and given the financial position many were in I think a large number won't reopen. That means huge job losses rather than job gains in the short term, unless insurance money comes very quickly this will be a huge drag on the economy not a boon.
At this stage who knows. I don't think it won't be New Orleans where everyone leaves but that scenario is a possiblility too - take the insurance and run to Aussie, that could wreck the economy.
As a taxpayer I hope we are
As a taxpayer I hope we are not going to be bailing out uninsured home owners - if they have equity then that should cover surely. Don't want to sound hard but have been paying insurance for many years and that would make a farce of it surely! Read a while ago of a landlord who didn't insure his properties - so wonder how he got on.
An awful situation and feel for them all - but personal responsibility has got to come from all of us