The point that must not be forgotten....English is borrowing the country into enormous public debt because the govt will not cut the state splurging. They are gambling that future growth will arrive to pay down the debt. There is no guarantee of that at all. In fact, chances are high that growth will be flat for a long long time. So anyone expecting incomes to increase due to the govt stealing less from them, ought to consider the real possibility that they will in fact end up losing more.
Whatever Key and English cook up for the budget is only one side of the story. No doubt it will come wrapped in spin and be sold as the start of better times and a promise of future growth.

Ummm....general election next year and I do NOT want to pay anymore taxes let alone land tax on my own home (already paid far too much rates to Auckland City). So fingers crossed!

From my reading of the whole RBNZ NBDTs report, the shite has yet to arrive and the property sector is in for some VERY tough times. It is a question of the ultimate cost of credit needed to refinance the borrowing carried out by, the lenders to the splurgers. The days of cheap loot are gone. ie, any development investment is set to be very costly, which means there will be less of it and that means less growth...fewer jobs...declining govt revenue...higher taxes...falling real incomes...less spending....less revenue...Not to forget, more inflation. Hello Stagflation, who invited you to Noddyland?

He hasn't had his Kornies yet.

Wally
Agree that National has done nothing to address the unsustainable and wasteful Govt spending that was initiated in a p-induced spending spree by the CCCP between 2005 to 2008 (P-induced = populist, short-term socialist democracy; CCCP = Cullum, Clarke Communist Party).

This modern form of democracy which has evaded the West is clearly unsustainable and will collaspe under the mountain of debt within the next 5-10 years as the baby-boomers hit retirement and the Western countries are buried by a period of cripling interest payments, high inflation and zero growth (aka stagflation). I don't think the growing masses who are dependent on welfare understand this.

TBM and Gingerbreadman - The Nats will do something. You need to follow their comments over the past 6-9 mths. The CMTF and the TWG have been orchestrated with the retoric of the last year around property investment being bad for the ecomony and that we are being "ripped off" by those who use LAQC's etc. They even have the support of the other parties re. property. It has all been very well planned and they have been hinting at it for a while now. Like BH, I think they will take the easiest option - denying depn on properties, change in thin-cap ruuels and align the tax rates at 30%.

I note Bernard went on record saying an increase in GST won't happen, here:
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=1062...
"The GST increase was not supported wholeheartedly by the working group and will not happen" - could be another prediction that turns out 100% wrong. If the pollies weren't considering it, they wouldn't be looking at ways to compensate people on low incomes...

IMHO if we want to encourage earning and discourage spending, then lowering income tax (an "earning" tax) and raising GST (a "spending" tax) in a revenue neutral way makes sense.
I think most people don't want to see ever increasing house prices and associated debt, but at the same time we don't want to categorically deter people from investing in rental property - that will create it's own set of problems.
Most of the recommendations by the TWG are deterrents against property rather than incentives in other areas....
Interesting times. Now I'm off to do some work and be productive!.....

I wonder what the majority want? I wonder if the majority really care? It is always really interesting reading a small group of peoples opinion on things but before getting sucked in I must always ask if they are just a minority, or are they really the voice on NZ?

I guess the problem is that the majority are silent as usual. I fear in financial matters that the majority also do not look out past their boundary fence and their paycheque. Therefore how can democracy work when only a small minority of NZ'ers know what should be done, and where the majority see it as an attack against their picket fence barricade.

I am predicting a middle of the road response, I can not see anything other than a populist changes and some mild tampering of budgets.

If one gets it wrong then it'll be a 4 years wait. May be not!

"I guess the problem is that the majority are silent as usual."

Problem is paul that the majority know they really have no say because we don't actually live in a 'democracy'. (No binding referendums)

Electing millionaires every 3 yrs and expecting them to actually give a toss about everyday kiwis is reaching, YET people(everyday people) do vote them in every 3 years.
Your right though, alot of people are confortable living in their little bubble and just don't think about decisions being made that effect EVERY single thing in their lives

Its a giant pyramid,the clever ones are out,their cash horded in the caymans. The pyramid now gets to unwind.

From The IMF,

"Few studies have been done on the macroeconomic effect of pyramid schemes on the scale of those in Albania, which, fortunately, are extremely rare. The closest analogy to such schemes is the asset bubble, whose economic impact is due to changes in perceived wealth. As a bubble expands, people believe themselves to be better off than they actually are, and their demand for goods and money increases, leading to a deterioration in a country's external current account as well as increased output or accelerated inflation or both. If the bubble attracts foreign investors, capital inflows might be sufficient to fund the current account deficit. After the bubble bursts, perceived wealth falls dramatically. Demand for goods and money, as well as output and inflation rates, can be expected to decrease, while the current account balance is likely to improve."

Full article gets interesting at the end

http://www.imf.org/external/Pubs/FT/staffp/2000/00-01/pdf/jarvis.pdf

Andrew J.... ta, as usual a cracking and depressing read all at the same time. wiser and sadder.

Paul... got to disagree with you too. We elect politicians to do what they think best for three years, not what the ignorant masses want.

apath...

Agreed ! R.T.

JK should realise there are more votes in reasoned reform that has marginal net impact on the average taxpayer than all the blather and noise generated by those other Wally's who still have fewer votes than their noise would suggest.
Both major political parties have an interest in getting as many out to vte as possible to support their agendas. National dictates that agenda while in power and Labour benefits if the Nats screw up.

Christov... such a cynic! :)

I do think that we elect politicians to make decisions and not to run back to us wringing their hands with indecision. The National Govt that was in power for that Superannuation referendum was too weak to do what needed to be done. Labour shamelessly shot anything down proposed by National regardless of whether it was a good idea or not. At least this National govt had the balls to ignore the anti-smacking referendum and stick to their guns.

Dave Smyth............no point arguing my cynicism, that is confirmed.

I have no particular axe to grind with National...... mostly I base my observations on the human condition......... I have found pollies to percieve themselves to be another sort of human . Yes I am a cynic but ironicly I can always trust them... (pollies)... not to be trustworthy....

@ Young Paul... in a way we're all part of the ignorant masses at some time or other depending on the topic in question! The anti-smacking thing is a good example though. The question was flawed eg;

"Should smacking, as part of good parental correction, be a criminal offence?"

So we had a referendum on a question that assumes smacking IS part of good parental correction as the premise! What a waste of money!

Another example is the people who think longer sentences will prevent crime despite it not working in every other comparable country that does have longer sentences. If you held a referendum on it, it would pass.

I do think we need to be able to stand up and stop the pollies doing some of the more stupid things but sadly, there is that need to protect us from ourselves! That's why we need laws forcing people to WoF their cars, restaurant health standards and build houses that don't fall down. None of these things stop us from forcing a stupid referendum.

@ Andrew - Personally, I think JK got it right on the anti-smacking thing. If nothing else, it was good to create debate about what is acceptable treatment of children.

Dave, but yes that is exactly the point, the people did not want to be criminals if they gave their kids a wack, they also said that they wanted longer sentences, they also said that they only want 100 pollies too.

Now not wanting to get into an arguement over which one of those have merit, the point is, that is what the people wanted, that is what they get, warts and all. Yes there would be problems, yes there will be cause and effects, but at the end of the day if you do not allow the public to have a small demented hope that they are in control under a democracy what are you left with?

Also if you want to remove the rights of the public via a democracy, surely you also have to remove the right of the lobbiest, whether it be from business, environmental, or social. Why are they allowed to alter the pollies when the public can't?

You point about us all being the ignorant mass at somestage hits it on the head. Who really knows what is right and wrong. Look at what the smartest people in the world do, somethings great, somethings down right evil. Look we live in a society where he worship actors etc instead of the guy that discovers the cure for hidious diseases. We are a society that punishes the good guys and protects the bad. We are not that flash, so why should be think we are "all that" when it comes to letting a select few hold all the reigns?

Ill take 2000 pairs, send them to AndrewJ, care of Waipukarau post office ,Cheques in the mail.