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Top 10 at 10: Japan to fire up printing presses; 'Banking time bomb'; Default for Greece?; Dilbert
Eric Sprott concludes that that nothing has changed, with the neutron bomb just waiting a Dubai-type event for everything to go back to Lehman levels. HT Gertraud.
Judging by recent comments by finance ministers and central bankers, it is clear to us that they have no plans to address leverage in their regulatory proposals, and until they do, we would advise that you invest in bank stocks with extreme caution. Don't say you weren't warned
3. Not too big to fail? - It seems the big four Australasian banks are very big, but not big enough to be included in the list of 30 big institutions that need global supervision. The FT reports that regulators are earmarking 30 for special treatment.
Thirty global financial institutions make up a list that regulators are earmarking for cross-border supervision exercises, the Financial Times has learnt. The list includes six insurance companies "“ Axa, Aegon, Allianz, Aviva, Zurich and Swiss Re "“ which sit alongside 24 banks from the UK, continental Europe, North America and Japan
4. Deleveraging is unstoppable - Australian economist Steve Keen at DebtWatch has another epic post on the issue of deleveraging, including plenty of useful charts. It's well worth a read. Here's a snippet and my favourite charts showing how deleveraging is going in Australia and the United States and how much further it has to go.
That huge government stimulus has attenuated the severity of the crisis, and led to positive growth figures in many countries"“most notably Australia, which recorded only one quarter of falling GDP versus a norm of 4 consecutive quarters for most of the OECD. But it still has not addressed the cause of the crisis"“the excessive level of private debt, and the transition from a period of decades in which rising debt fuelled aggregate demand, to one in which the private sector's attempts to reduce debt will subtract from aggregate demand. For that reason, I do not share the belief that the GFC is behind us: while the level of private debt remains as gargantuan as it is today, the global economy remains financially fragile, and a return to "growth as usual" is highly unlikely, since that growth will no longer be propelled by rising levels of private debt. Having driven demand higher every year since the 1990s recession by rising and rising faster than nominal GDP, private debt is now falling and reducing aggregate demand. This is deleveraging at work, and it is the force that governments are trying to resist by boosting their own spending as private spending stagnates.
5. Helicopter seeking missile - US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke faces a reappointment hearing in the Senate on Wednesday night. It looks like it will be a cracker with the mood filtering through to Congress about how unpopular he has become. Yves Smith at NakedCapitalism details the campaign building against Bernanke.
When CEOs preside over disasters, they are fired. Captains go down with their ships. And Bernanke needs to be replaced. He was a major architect of the policies that created the crisis. He ignored signs of the severity of the developing crisis and failed to prepare for obvious dangers, like the collapse of an investment bank. He has turned the Fed into an off-balance sheet funding vehicle of the Treasury to circumvent Constitutionally-mandated budgetary procedures. He has fought all efforts to examine the central bank's conduct in the rescue operation. Before, during, and after the crisis, he has put the interests of banks ahead of those of ordinary citizens. He needs to go. Tell your Senator that this vote matters to you and he needs to vote no on Bernanke. Enlist the support of like-minded colleagues and friends to deliver the same message. Keep it simple and to the point. Bernanke has failed at his job. The US public deserves and needs better. Please sign http://StopBailoutBen.com/
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6. Top Global Thinkers - The high brow Foreign Policy magazine has, however, put Bernanke at the top of its Top 100 Global Thinkers list. Apparently he saved the world from another Depression. Nouriel Roubini makes it in at number 4. 7. Bailout nation - Barry Ritholz wrote the excellent book Bailout Nation and runs his Big Picture blog. Here is a video of one of his recent key note addresses. All of the videos from the 45 minute address are here.
8. Stormy Port - One of the angles on the Dubai default story is that DP World is the ports owning arm of Dubai World. It has ports all over the world, including the flagship UK development DP World, FTAlphaville reports.
Further evidence of financing problems for one of DP World's flagship developments coincides with mounting concern over the ability of Dubai-owned businesses to service their debts. Last week the developer Nakheel, owned by DP World's parent group Dubai World, stunned global markets by asking to delay payments on its debts. DP World, viewed as one of Dubai's crown jewels and one of the largest listed companies on the Dubai stock exchange, inherited London Gateway from P&O when it bought the British group for £3.9 billion in 2006. The company, which owns port assets in locations ranging from Antwerp to Djibouti, has previously told the Financial Times it has no debt maturities due until 2012. Net debt stands at just under $5bn, but DP World holds $3bn in cash.
9. Default for Greece - Wolfgang Muchau at FT.com looks at renewed talk that Greece may default on its debts or be pushed into brutal cutbacks by the European Union, which doesn't seem to be in mood to cut the delinquent Southern European states any more slack.
The EU's authorities, rightly or wrongly, are more afraid of the moral hazard of a bail-out than the possible spillover effect of a hypothetical Greek default to other eurozone countries. If faced with a choice between preserving the integrity of the stability pact and the integrity of Greece, they are currently minded to choose the former. To safeguard what is left of the stability pact, they are determined to link any help to a country's willingness to comply. Otherwise the EU fears it might lose all leverage over budgetary processes elsewhere in the eurozone. And no country in the eurozone has flouted the pact more than Greece. Here are the numbers. This year, the budget deficit will rise to 12.7 per cent of gross domestic product "“ and this assumes there are no further accounting tricks to be uncovered. Deutsche Bank calculated in a recent research note that the country's public debt-to-GDP ratio is headed for 135 per cent. Gross external debt "“ private and public sector debt owed to foreign creditors "“ was 149.2 per cent at the end of last year. The real exchange rate has gone up by 17 per cent since 2006, which means the country is losing competitiveness at an incredible rate. Had Greece not been in the eurozone, it would be heading straight for default.
There is another country with gross foreign debt above 140% that is not a member of the Eurozone: New Zealand. 10. Totally irrelevant video - Couldn't resist this cat jumping up to open the door video.

19 Comments
Err No.2 is Eric Sprott.
Err No.2 is Eric Sprott. Jim is my uncle.
More on Dubai. Its a
More on Dubai. Its a tad one sided but its perspective on foreign expats living there is illuminating and an indictment on unregulated globalisation. Without any regulation the dark side of human nature almost always prevails, a Hobbesian wet dream made for dictators and fascist democracies. Basically the elites everywhere turn a blind eye as long as they're making money and no one is making to much of a fuss.
A good read for all of us who have been stumped for the last few years as to how you could possibly rationalise a successful mega city state in the middle of the desert built on nothing other than debt and the meglomania of a corrupt sheikh.
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/johann-hari/the-dark-s...
<b>stevek</b> I reckon you've been
stevek I reckon you've been watching too much Lord of the Rings.
Dubai's problems are just the same old same old: http://blog.mises.org/archives/011119.asp
Nothing to do with globalisation or lack of regulation. Just unsound money again.
Mark - Dubai's immediate economic
Mark - Dubai's immediate economic problems may be debt related but there are far deeper issues related to modern day slavery, suppression of the press, rascism etc. The economy does not exist in a vacuum. No economy that is built on misery and greed like Dubai's deserves to survive much less flourish
<i>modern day slavery, suppression of
modern day slavery, suppression of the press ...
Yes I know, the worst abuser/tyrant in this being the State, even worse when you are dealing with shades of theocracy.
And yes, economics and philosophy can't be separated: though I've not see a single economist posting here that understands that. A free society can only be founded on laissez faire: any form of mixed/controlled economy has to be predicated on a controlled society.
Um, and just speaking personally, you can't get a drink in Dubai: why would you want to go there? I certainly wouldn't even entertain the notion of setting up house.
Stevek - reflect on the
Stevek - reflect on the words of Thomas Wilson in 1569 - when he spoke on the evils of usury which, of course, is the bedfellow of unsound money:
"Usury overthrows trade, decays merchandise, undoes tillage, destroys craftsmen, defaces chivalries, beats down nobility, brings dearth and famine, and causes destruction and confusion".
The Roman historian, Tacitus, described usury as "an old venomous sore".
Mark is right, free societies have always been reposed on sound money - and sound money is primarily an article of philosophy and not economics. It is high time the socialist showed some contrition for the misery - the vulgarity - that his sickening idea of man as a mere 'unit of human capital' has wrought on so many. I have visited Dubai and found it both fascinating and absurd. To me it was the ultimate testament to the folly of irredeemable debt money. A man may spend unlimited fiat money on some monolith in the desert - one suspects he would be rather less keen to pay for such vanities with gold.
Chris Martenson has just done
Chris Martenson has just done a great blog on the disjunct between the measureable signs of continuing recession in the USA, and the buoyancy of the financial markets.
http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/pumps-full/32142
He concludes that foreign central banks (and govts) are colluding with the US govt and injecting vast amounts of liquidity into the markets by bidding for US Treasury bond auctions at ridiculously low yields.
As part of the liquidity flood, he cites copper prices - known as "Dr Copper" for being such an accurate barometer as to the health of the world economy. So why has the good doctor been rising so much against the background of a sick global economy? Liquidity of course.
Says Martenson: "I think Dr. Copper is merely drunk on a bunch of funny money. His voice is garbled and we'd do better than to follow his staggering gait around town."
You keeping an eye on yer drunk mate, Wally??
Re 4. It's a funny
Re 4. It's a funny thing, but I worked backwards to get to Bernards view, via physical underwriting curtailment.
You don't need to turn off the tap, it all happens when you can't turn it on any harder. After which the tank starts to empty.
I'm convinced there isn't the extractable energy to fuel a 'recovery', or even to repay what we understand as the 'debt'.
It would be great to have a serious debate with an economist, about what things will be 'worth' in relative terms, whether the debt will/can be 'forgiven', and where we go from here.
I'm not sure their learning encompasses the concept of ultimate scarcity, more's the pity.
Laissez Faire? That was Debussy, wasn't it?
#4 Why don't Interest.co.nz sponsor
#4 Why don't Interest .co.nz sponsor or organise a public debate between Steve Keen and Alan Bollard at Auckland University in front of a room full of economics students. He would destroy Bollard and open the eyes of the students to what a load of rubbish mainstream economic theory is.
I think you are on
I think you are on to something there, stevek! But I can't see ANYONE in NZ being game to take Steve Keen on, no matter how strongly they differ with his views. Dr. Bollard has nothing to win, and the rest have everything to lose. ( PS: your surname isn't Keen is it, steve!)
I wish! He's having a
I wish! He's having a ball at the moment.
"Drunk on funny money"..I can't
"Drunk on funny money"..I can't argue with that but what else do you use to buy copper?..That's the point here. Copper and other commodities are rising to counter the dilution of the dollar. As CM points out the central banks are working a market rort to hold down the Tbill rates...so good are they at this that the short end is negative!..but what happens when this game ends..the rates will explode higher and the Dollar die in the gutter outside the Fed..Gold will blast past $5000. That is why the top hedge funds are buying gold and setting up to be in the middle of the trades...energy will follow oil through the roof.
Mike in Welly "Jim is
Mike in Welly
"Jim is my uncle." Which narrows it down, I assume you are Michael Sprott ex Mt Albert, haven't seen you in years!
Neven
Mike in Welly My apologies.
Mike in Welly
My apologies. I've corrected that now
cheers
Bernard
"If the American people ever
"If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their money, first by inflation and then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them [the banks], will deprive the people of their property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered." "“ Thomas Jefferson
He was dead right to.
BOJ is holding an emergency
BOJ is holding an emergency meeting today 1400 (JST) announcment expected at 1630 JST,
Now for a farce to
Now for a farce to start the day: The North Shore City Council needs to be entered in the competition to find the most stupid council on the planet!!!... they would win. read and laugh. http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10612875
I don’t think Stephenie Meyer
I don't think Stephenie Meyer has sold the rights to Breaking Dawn. there going to be a Breaking Dawn movie? If you are not sure of that, then do you wish there is going to be one? ugg bailey button UGG Cardy Grey UGG Classic Short Boots
It's amazing to see those
It's amazing to see those figures, the amount of debt is unbelievable at 300% of GDP and rising sharply. I wouldn't be surprised if it started to level off at 500%!