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Top 10 at 10: Govt dumps ETS costs on Generations X and Y; 2nd bailout debate rages; Bailout Ben game; Dilbert
Here are my Top 10 links from around the Internet at 10am. I welcome your additions and comments below or please email your suggestions for Wednesday's Top 10 at 10 to bernard.hickey@interest.co.nz. We love our shareholders at interest.co.nz 
1. Intergenerational injustice - Brian Fallow at NZHerald unleashes both barrels on the amended Emissions Trading Act going through parliament this week, accusing the government of passing on the cost to future generations. This debate over the massive intergenerational transfer of wealth from Generations X and Y to the Babyboomers is not going to go away in a hurry. It will go away slowly as Generations X and Y buy one way tickets outta here.
The focus in recent days on whether some forest-owning iwi are getting a sweetheart deal, or whether it is a pragmatic resolution of genuine grievance, has distracted attention from the larger intergenerational injustice inherent in the emissions trading scheme amendments about to be trundled into law. What those amendments essentially do is give this message to the sectors - mainly agriculture and heavy industry - which are responsible for about two-thirds of the country's carbon emissions but which face competition from competitors that will not face a cost on emissions: "Go for your life, ramp up your production of milk, or methanol, or cement, or urea or whatever. The country needs the money you earn. Don't worry about the cost of those emissions. Someone else will pay for almost all of it."
2. Hell No! - Janet Tavakoli captures the increasingly angry mood in the United States about the way investment bankers are benefiting personally from taxpayer bailouts while the taxpayers on Main St are still suffering. The mood is even beginning to filter through to Washington where the Fed may now be audited and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's reappointment is now no sure thing. Here's Tavakoli with the core problem and a discussion of the apparent hypocrisy (or at least cynicism) of Warren Buffett. HT Roelof via email
Government debt, like your credit card, is a type of money. It must be paid off with our future taxes generated from our production (unless you wish to destroy the economy by printing excess money). The fruits of your labors should be used in the way you see fit. We must stop subsidizing speculators with cheap funding and tax breaks. We have to hold people accountable for malfeasance, break up large financial institutions, and allow them to fail instead of bailing them out. As for high pay and tax breaks for speculators, even Warren Buffett says: "Hell no!" But he won't help us make changes. U.S. taxpayers will have to figure it out, or we will pay.
3. It's dawning on them now - Edmund Andrews at The New York Times has done the maths and worked out that US government borrowing of US$1 trillion a year will create interest payments of US$700 billion a year by 2019, more than triple what it was last year. So when will foreign investors stop pumping more money into US Treasuries?
In concrete terms, an additional $500 billion a year in interest expense would total more than the combined federal budgets this year for education, energy, homeland security and the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. The potential for rapidly escalating interest payouts is just one of the wrenching challenges facing the United States after decades of living beyond its means. The surge in borrowing over the last year or two is widely judged to have been a necessary response to the financial crisis and the deep recession, and there is still a raging debate over how aggressively to bring down deficits over the next few years. But there is little doubt that the United States' long-term budget crisis is becoming too big to postpone. Americans now have to climb out of two deep holes: as debt-loaded consumers, whose personal wealth sank along with housing and stock prices; and as taxpayers, whose government debt has almost doubled in the last two years alone, just as costs tied to benefits for retiring baby boomers are set to explode. The competing demands could deepen political battles over the size and role of the government, the trade-offs between taxes and spending, the choices between helping older generations versus younger ones, and the bottom-line questions about who should ultimately shoulder the burden.
4. The other point of view - Paul Krugman at the NYTimes has written a detailed post explaining why he thinks deficits don't matter, interest rates can stay low and why the Americans need to worry more about high unemployment than anything else. He's arguing hard for a second bailout package. HT Felix Salmon, who points to the chart below.
On the face of it, there's no reason to be worried about interest rates on US debt. Despite large deficits, the Federal government is able to borrow cheaply, at rates that are up from the early post-Lehman period, when market were pricing in a substantial probability of a second Great Depression, but well below the pre-crisis levels. Bear in mind that the whole problem right now is that the private sector is hurting, it's spooked, and it's looking for safety. So it's piling into "cash", which really means short-term debt. (Treasury bill rates briefly went negative yesterday). Meanwhile, the public sector is sustaining demand with deficit spending, financed by long-term debt. So someone has to be bridging the gap between the short-term assets the public wants to hold and the long-term debt the government wants to issue; call it a carry trade if you like, but it's a normal and necessary thing. Now, you could and should be worried if this thing looked like a great bubble "” if long-term rates looked unreasonably low given the fundamentals. But do they? Long rates fluctuated between 4.5 and 5 percent in the mid-2000s, when the economy was driven by an unsustainable housing boom. Now we face the prospect of a prolonged period of near-zero short-term rates "” I don't see any reason for the Fed funds rate to rise for at least a year, and probably two "” which should mean substantially lower long rates even if you expect yields eventually to rise back to 2005 levels. And if we're facing a Japanese-type lost decade, which seems all too possible, long rates are in fact still unreasonably high.
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5. No worries, be happy - Felix Salmon at Reuters references both the Andrews article and Krugman's piece in this post. He points out that the debt servicing costs remain relatively low, as in the chart above. It all comes down to how long these low US rates can stay low. Your view?
Most developed countries can cope quite happily with net interest payments around 3% of GDP. According to the OECD, Belgium is already at 3.8%, and Italy's at 5.2%; the average for the euro area is 2.7%. So while there might be a big rise in this metric, it would be a big rise from a low level and to a number very much within the bounds of precedent. None of which is to say that Andrews doesn't raise an important question. But fiscal prudence is the kind of thing which get rich financiers like Pete Peterson and Bill Gross very excited; it doesn't have nearly as much effect on the populace as a whole. Just ask the Japanese: if they're having problems right now, it's not because of their massive government debt.
6. Turning purple - This interactive graphic of a map of the United States and how unemployment has changed county by county is useful. It is by Latoya Egwuekwe. HT Gertraud and Barry Ritholz at The Big Picture
7. Cautionary tale - This joke is doing the rounds of email at the moment. It's sort of funny in a black (sea) sort of way. HT Alex via IM from Unmesh Patil.
It is the month of August, on the shores of the Black Sea . It is raining, and the little town looks totally deserted. It is tough times, everybody is in debt, and everybody lives on credit. Suddenly, a rich tourist comes to town. He enters the only hotel, lays a 100 Euro note on the reception counter, and goes to inspect the rooms upstairs in order to choose one. The hotel proprietor takes the 100 Euro note and runs to pay his debt to the butcher. The butcher takes the 100 Euro note, and runs to pay his debt to the pig grower. The pig grower takes the 100 Euro note, and runs to pay his debt to the supplier of his feed and fuel. The supplier of feed and fuel takes the 100 Euro note and runs to pay his debt to the town's prostitute that in these hard times, gave her "services" on credit. The hooker runs to the hotel, and pays off her debt with the 100 Euro note to the hotel proprietor to pay for the rooms that she rented when she brought her clients there. The hotel proprietor then lays the 100 Euro note back on the counter so that the rich tourist will not suspect anything. At that moment, the tourist comes down after inspecting the rooms, and takes his 100 Euro note, after saying that he did not like any of the rooms, and leaves town. No one earned anything. However, the whole town is now without debt, and looks to the future with a lot of optimism.... . And that, ladies and gentlemen, this is how the United States is doing business today.
8. Real demand - Demand for gasoline in America is running way down, FTAlphaville points out and there's even signs that demand for metals in China is cooling off, Reuters reported. Is this the beginning of the double dip? HT Troy Barsten.
Last Friday, what many in the energy market had long suspected might happen, happened. Valero, the largest independent refiner in the US, was forced to close another 200,000-plus barrel-per-day refinery "” this time, its Delaware City unit "” due to a lack of demand. The closure comes just three months after Valero shuttered its 235,000 barrel-per-day Aruba refinery in the Caribbean. Rival Sunoco, meanwhile, shut down a 150,000 barrel per day facility at Eagle Point in New Jersey in October. These closures reflect just how badly the sector is doing, a fact which has also shown through in (falling) share prices.
9. Oh my god they killed Benny! - There's now a free iPhone app called Bailout Ben which is a game where you have to fly a helicopter and dump money (Ben Bernanke style) on companies and banks to bail them out.
The names of the companies to be bailed out are shown on the bottom of the screen, in stock ticker format. For example, C for Citigroup, GM for General Motors. The debt of each company is denoted by the blue and green bars. The taller the bar, the greater the toxic debt. Tap the screen to drop a bundle of dollars and help bail out a company. Only one wad of cash can be dropped at a time, so manage your bailouts carefully. Land the helicopter and see Benny dance to the funky beat*. Or be trampled by a herd of piggy banks, angry at the lack of money flowing their way. Sometimes they get really mad and then it's "Oh my gosh they killed Benny!"
10. Somewhat relevant funny video - Here is an economics lecture that made some people laugh. Greg Mankiw's textbook gets a trashing.
71 Comments
Anti Baby boomer sentiment (mine
Anti Baby boomer sentiment (mine included) has been growing for a number of years now. There are several books by Gen X authors talking about how the Boomers have mucked the whole thing up. The next boomer bubble will be pensions. The equity market is a pimple on the A$$ of the fixed security market and as soon as the Boomers begin to liquidate their accounts the world will enter a new era of global stagflation and general economic malaise similar to Japan.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/books/why-dont-you-all-just-ffade-away/2006/0...
In other news Silver has stayed above $18/oz so it now has an 85% chance of reaching $22/oz in the next couple months.
#7. That's fine ; until
#7. That's fine ; until all the rich tourists, even the Chinese ones, have been and looked at the debt-cycle room and decide not to return. Then, who puts the E100 note down to continue the process? That's where the United States risks going.
Good fellow , Brian Fallow
Good fellow , Brian Fallow , at NZHarold . The Nats. have lost sight of what the ETS is actually meant to achieve . As daft as Queen Helen's policy was ( including agriculture , 'cos she wanted us to lead the world ) , this Nick Smith policy is so much worse . And I readily endorse BH's call to X & Y generations , you may as well pack your bags and leave . The fools in government are gonna place a millstone of debt upon you . A debt from something that you are not responsible for . One can only pray that these loons , the Nats , become one term wonders . ........... . Gummys . Need me gummy bears .........Arrrrrgggggggggghhhhhhhhh !
There wasn't the real material
There wasn't the real material - actual stuff - to underwrite the wish-money sprung off the levers - mostly by the baby-boomers.
And there won't be - ever - again.
We need a new fiscal system, one which somehow leaves out profit and debt.
I don't think we'll get there.
I think we'll go for WW111, fought over resources. That 'actual stuff'. Ironically, it will chew up quite a bit of the actual in the process.
I'm with the Chink in 'Even Cowgirls Get the Blues" :
" Pockets of humanity will survive........and I aim to be one of those pockets".
Seriously, it's good to see reporters with the bravery to write it as it is. Well said Brian Fallow, nil illegitimus carborundum.
<i>We need a new fiscal
We need a new fiscal system, one which somehow leaves out profit and debt.
You've been watching too much Star Trek ;)
And you call my position 'out there'. Don't think so.
We just need a system based on sound money, etc, etc, ... It's actually a more conservative position, in many ways, than advocacy of the failed fractional banking backed by central banks system we have now. And much, much more reality based, in that it is reality based, than a system with no profit and no debt, headed, I assume, by a Committee on the All Knowing Divine - Iain Parker Finance Angel, Kate Angel of Values.
That was entertaining. Thank you.
Had Clark & Cullen got
Had Clark & Cullen got the extra 3 years , which they bribed voters hand over fist to buy , we may now have a fiscal system with no profit . Ultimately , they were heading us towards a socialist republic . Sadly for Michael , too dim to understand the marketplace ( he never participated in it ) , the debt was going to escalate and sink the NZ-Debtanic sooner or later .
As I asked on another
As I asked on another thread - is it time for the South Island to go it alone? Why should we bow down and see the ruin of our children's future on the altar of some bunch of megalomaniac illumanists from Europe and the U.S.A?
Speaking of the ETS, Climatgate,
Speaking of the ETS, Climatgate, and the economy; Mauna Loa observatory has announced that CO2 levels are at an all time high despite an extraordinary slow down in the world economy. If a world wide recession on the economic scale of the Great Depression can't slow down CO2 then what is a silly ETS going to do?
There seems to be a serious disconnect between the CO2 data and the amount of consumption. Why? Shouldn't we see even a statistically significant down turn in the CO2 data during large scale recessions? And if not why is that?
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091123/ap_on_bi_ge/climate_09_co2_off_the_c...
Troy - you're kidding me!
Troy - you're kidding me! Seriously, you're asking?
Lag-time.
You need to do a crash course, methinks. :)
although on cogitation, I'm not sure we're slowing down - are you counting in the Chinese coal-fired start-ups?
Mark - profit is underwritten each next round - which must therefore be bigger. It has to buy stuff. Think about it.
@powerdownkiwi You’re dodging the question
@powerdownkiwi
You're dodging the question by blaming China. Blaming China is a catchall copout. You're honesty saying that with the entire world slowing its consumption of resources at the peril of the entire shipping industry...that we wouldn't observe even a slightly statistically significant leveling off or even drop in CO2? If the entire world can't stop China then what's the point of the ETS?
Don't worry Troy guru Gore
Don't worry Troy guru Gore now says CO2 has a much smaller effect on GW than he once thought. But all targets are still being worked in terms of reducing levels of CO2.
At the very least they should be changed to emmisions in general and if we are going to pay for it then we should have explicit target levels for each type of emmission. But the control freaks at the IPCC will not do that.
@Ross I agree. If you’re
@Ross
I agree. If you're going to start labeling specific gasses as "pollutants" there needs to be a detailed study as to which gasses are indeed pollutants and a fee structure to match. The more destructive the gas the higher the fee schedule. I'm waiting for the law of unintended consequence to take effect much like the entire DDT fiasco.
BTW I'm a huge proponent of clean Air and Water. The Clean Air and Water Acts in the US did wonders. Also, Water Vapor does a much more effected job at trapping heat then CO2 could ever dream of...so should there be an ETS for Water Vapor also?
Sorry, powerdown, the Climategate stuff
Sorry, powerdown, the Climategate stuff has most of the perps in CYA mode right aboot now, and the inside word is that Copenhagen is DOA. NZ's ETS is doing just enough to ensure that the rest of the world does not harm our trade interests via green-flavoured protectionism, and there is a luvverly leetle revenue stream to be had in the agricultural emissions research space, along with other bit-part playaz like India.
Plus we have 300+ years worth of coal-to-liquid-fuels raw material safely tucked away under Southland's dairy farm paddocks.
Glass is half-full.
Did I miss the report
Did I miss the report on CLIMATEGATE again!
Please someone point me to it, it surely must have been posted on here.
This isn't a MSM cover-up website after all.
"Pig grower"?
"Pig grower"?
@ Steve Netwriter - "CLIMATEGATE",
@ Steve Netwriter - "CLIMATEGATE", I think it's #1 above Brian Fallow's article... Good article.
Troy - Ha. I'm not
Troy - Ha. I'm not blaming anyone.
Take it from first principles.
There was a period called the Carboniferous. We couldn't have survived that as a species, and unsurprisingly, we weren't around at the time.
The carbon got taken by things that found carbon yummy - trees and so forth.
They died, decayed anaerobically, and got stored.
That left a different climate, one we happen to be able to exist in.
If we release the carbon - and we're hell-bent on doing so - we will (no question) recreate the Carboniferous.
And will all die out - the change is being made faster than we can reproduce a resilient strain of ourselves.
Arguing about whether NZ has or hasn't got hotter or colder in a one-decade period, is so pointless as to be irrelevant. Not that some folk don't need to be parried when they spout nonsense!
The problem is that the attempt to address carbon (and other things) is being done within the constraints of a fiscal regime which has passed it's use-by date, in that it required exponential physical growth from a finite planet.
Which is the question (unanswered) I asked Cunliffe.
To see the whole picture, you're at least into a multiple-variable scenario, and most - nearly all - don't get that. I suggest a study of the cycle of an algal bloom is a good place to commence. I warm you, it ain't pretty.
Troy - Ha. I'm not
Troy - Ha. I'm not blaming anyone.
Take it from first principles.
There was a period called the Carboniferous. We couldn't have survived that as a species, and unsurprisingly, we weren't around at the time.
The carbon got taken by things that found carbon yummy - trees and so forth.
They died, decayed anaerobically, and got stored.
That left a different climate, one we happen to be able to exist in.
If we release the carbon - and we're hell-bent on doing so - we will (no question) recreate the Carboniferous.
And will all die out - the change is being made faster than we can reproduce a resilient strain of ourselves.
Arguing about whether NZ has or hasn't got hotter or colder in a one-decade period, is so pointless as to be irrelevant. Not that some folk don't need to be parried when they spout nonsense!
The problem is that the attempt to address carbon (and other things) is being done within the constraints of a fiscal regime which has passed it's use-by date, in that it required exponential physical growth from a finite planet.
Which is the question (unanswered) I asked Cunliffe.
To see the whole picture, you're at least into a multiple-variable scenario, and most - nearly all - don't get that. I suggest a study of the cycle of an algal bloom is a good place to commence. I warn you, it ain't pretty.
Anyone seen these Airbus photos
Anyone seen these Airbus photos an expensive mistake?
http://www.thehubsa.co.za/printer_friendly_posts.asp?TID=46093
@Steve Nothing new...but here is
@Steve
Nothing new...but here is a good run down...
http://www.examiner.com/x-28973-Essex-County-Conservative-Examiner~y2009...
Who is conning who? http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/news/309060
Who is conning who?
http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/news/3090606/Storm-threatens-on-Copenha...
Carboniferous, algal bloom, dogs and
Carboniferous, algal bloom, dogs and cats living together... mass hysteria! I got it. But you're still not answering the question. Should there or should there NOT be a significant scientifically observed change in the CO2 data with the largest decrees in the world economy in all of human history?
I'm not interested in your theories about the Early Cretaceous so plz stick to the point.
#7. My brother in law
#7. My brother in law (who would fight to the death to defend Helen Clarks name!) sent me that email about 6 months ago when I was trying to convince him not to buy another investment property and look aggressively at commodities (gold was floating around $950 at the time). He sent me the email *minus the US jab at the end* to prove his point that the economy is fine. I sent him Peter Schiffs 'Crash Proof'. He brought the house and did not read the book. Havent been hearing about his amazing portfolio lately...
I love Janet Tavakoli, she
I love Janet Tavakoli, she doesn't pull her punches. She gives me hope for America and the rest of us.
She understands all the structured finance stuff and basically thinks there has been a massive fraud that makes Bernie Madoff look small time. Unlike the rest of us she knows exactly how it was done....
Roger I got her book.
Roger
I got her book. It a bit of an eye opener. Id recommend it if you want a good understanding of the risk we are facing if we don't 'stop the madness'. Happy to lend it, if you want.
Troy - you can't have
Troy - you can't have a talk about the deckchairs without addressing the sloping deck. Although I suspect that some folk just want to prolong the discussion so they don't have to do anything inconvenient.
Have a look at theoildrum.com. Top post. Note that the oil consumed this year is only 2 mbpd less than last year (total all-liquids around 85 vs 83 mbpd). You'd need an aerial microscope to measure that diffo, and - I was serious - it's not a blame thing, but China is burning more and more coal per time constant - and I think it is generally assumed that that would more than make up for a 2mbpd difference.
Then there's the lag-time/lapse-rate thing.
If I get you right, you think that CO2 counts are rising, but because of the recession, they should have fallen or stagnated or something? Sorry, a fractionally lesser increase is still an increase. Minus 2 parts in 85, plus extra coal, and the odd burn-off.
With respect, always step back and see the big picture. The bigger the better. Most folk make the mistake of thinking of our species as the culmination of something, of seeing the 'now' as permanent, and the instant as forever.
Try Kenneth Boulding's "Spaceship Earth' - penned in 1965 and stil out there in the ether. I stumbled across it in 1975, and started from there.
In exact answer to your question: Not appreciably.
<i>it’s not a blame thing,
it's not a blame thing, but China is burning more and more coal per time constant "“ and I think it is generally assumed that that would more than make up for a 2mbpd difference.
Then there's the lag-time/lapse-rate thing.
If I get you right, you think that CO2 counts are rising, but because of the recession, they should have fallen or stagnated or something? Sorry, a fractionally lesser increase is still an increase. Minus 2 parts in 85, plus extra coal, and the odd burn-off
All this carbon being released, and yet the earth has been cooling for over ten years now. How does that figure?
(Apparently it only figures when the IPCC evangelists 'play with the data' a little bit to make it look right. Which, we have just found out, they could do because they had already corrupted the peer review process, rendering it useless.)
How's it in the life raft Powereddown? Must be pretty annoying having bailed ship in 1975, and now having to watch the sane amongst us sipping cocktails onboard the luxury liner still while you're running out, and quickly by the sounds of it, of bread and water ;) Let me know when you'd like me to throw a lifeline.
I'm off to watch 2012 tonight. I will be viewing it as a film - fiction. I guess the Greenies believe they're watching a documentary ;)
It reminds me of the
It reminds me of the story about the grasshopper and the ant. The grasshopper was a positive thinker.
Or the ant who ate
Or the ant who ate an elephant..........Pig !
So what's Australia's bill going
So what's Australia's bill going to be each year for their bush-fires?
Powerdown, I think the phrase
Powerdown, I think the phrase is 'think globally, act locally'.
Globally, there is technology like Sasol.
Locally, there is 300+ years of the raw materials.
What's not to like?
Oh, wait, we might just have to protect 'our' resources from the ravening hordes who, in Their local patch, have encountered Peak Whatever, have made it into a boat or plane (wind-powered, natcherally), have navigated clear across to Our leetle patch of heaven, and are heavily armed into the bargain.
Or take the Kent Brockman line:
"Ladies and gentlemen, er, we've just lost the picture, but,
uh, what we've seen speaks for itself. The Corvair spacecraft
has been taken over -- "conquered", if you will -- by a master
race of giant space ants. It's difficult to tell from this
vantage point whether they will consume the captive earth men
or merely enslave them. One thing is for certain, there is no
stopping them; the ants will soon be here.
And I, for one, welcome our new insect overlords. I'd like to
remind them that as a trusted TV personality, I can be helpful
in rounding up others to toil in their underground sugar
caves."
Glass still half-full. I raise it to our new insect overlords.
Mark - one, I don't
Mark - one, I don't do fiction - enjoy the film, all yours.
Two - you haven't listened to anything I've said, yet.
The earth hasn't 'been' either warming or cooling for ten years. That's cranially myopic to the point of stupidity.
All graphs of such scale have noisy data - the Hubbert curve being a classic case-in-point.
The question is: what's the capacitance? And the follow-up question is: when will the capacitor be full?
Ant the ultimate question is the one of re-creating the conditions we clearly can't exist in.
Thank-you for the concern for my welfare, but things are just fine. I'm sitting under the 'brollie by the windmill, just across from the pond. The sun is shining, birds a'twittering, the cloud shadows moving slowly across the peaks in the distance. I have no debt, do not bludge, and last worked full-time in 1985. Think I'll have me a shandy later, and about sundown I'll water the garden. Or maybe not. I've got an article to get away by Friday, the Border Collie is doing a good imitation of dead, and I'm going sailing tomorrow. Don't worry, I'll cope. :)
One of these days I'm going to write about the psychology of denial, and how it panned out in this period - always assuming things are stable enough for that to happen. Most collapsing societies - the Greenland Norse, the Maya - they tended to go a bit silent about that point. I hold the view that societal stress may have been the culprit.....
Quick question - how do you explain the record temperature here yesterday (all-time) and the record Aussie temps, and the record (1 in 1000 is record) floods in the UK?
Noisy data - you could explain it by noisy data - there you go..
RT: we are assuming here
RT: we are assuming here that elsewhere is any better....everywhere else has retiring baby boomers as well, so I dont see it myself...
Personally I think the OAP age should rise to 67....maybe even 70, and that isnt as bad as ppl might think, from my calcs at the rate rates and power are rising I wont be able to afford to retire, ever....anyway
regards
steven : For once we
steven : For once we are agreed ! Brilliant . Excellent . .......... Actually I've lost the thread of this , but carry on , regardless . ( Seen Max Keiser's latest rant ? China hooked on $US like a junky on opium . Guy is funnier than Keith Locke )
@Troy: "You’re honesty saying that
@Troy: "You're honesty saying that with the entire world slowing its consumption of resources at the peril of the entire shipping industry"¦that we wouldn't observe even a slightly statistically significant leveling off or even drop in CO2?"
Yes as its probably within the noise band...do we actually have any stats to suggest there has been a decrease in CO2 output? or a decrease in the increase? To stand a chance then I suspect we'd need 10 years of decrease.
"slightly statistically significant" sounds like an oxymoron.
If the entire world can't stop China then what's the point of the ETS?" The world can...they will put a carbon tax/duty on Chinese goods at the border...make them expensive so less are sold. At least I assume so as this what ppl say is the risk with the USA and us.
regards
<i>Quick question – how do
Quick question "“ how do you explain the record temperature here yesterday (all-time) and the record Aussie temps, and the record (1 in 1000 is record) floods in the UK?
It's weather. There has always been extreme weather. While you doing your 'denier' psychology paper look up memory. There is a very good climate 'denier' paper, I don't know where now, I've read so many, that explains this phenomena. Our brains are wired for short term memory of events such as weather. So in the short term we see a flood in England, or a hot day in Australia and we tend to think, shit, better look at getting into the life raft, however, if we could remember back, we would remember there have always been such events.
I mean, in the face of your record temperature in Australia, I give you New Zealand's coldest October in what, twenty years or something. In the face of floating ice bergs I give you the fact of the last Antarctic summer saw the lowest ice melt in the 30 years of satellite observation. In the face of Al Gore's concern for the polar bears, I give you the fact that the population of polar bears has increased since AGW has been mooted.
See. It's weather. You can only base the issue of AGW on the science, and on that level, we've been sold a pup, the criminal thing being the 'scientists' who did this, threaten to take away the most important thing of all: actual science, and how it is our biggest strength. And look at what they've done to you, for example. It's shameful.
No one knows if CO2
No one knows if CO2 is a climate threatening issue for sure. Personally I feel it isn't to the degree a few vested interests in the scientific community say it is (follow the research money trail) The ETS is the bastard brainchild of Wall St which Key's old chums estimate will become worth trillions to them over time. If something is so bad for the environment, tax the hell out of it or ban it.
I'm more concerned about the crap we put in our rivers, lakes and oceans. It annoys me that in 2009 you can't use Auckland beaches for several days after heavy rain or that numerous cities and towns still pump basically untreated sewage into the local water. It distresses me that in parts of Auckland the traffic fumes are so bad it is hard to breathe anything but warm diesel particulate and carbon monoxide. I can't believe that the local council lets Carter Holt turn the local river black with discharge from the Kawerau mill. Agriculture, dairy in particular, is so industrialised the cows are no different from any mechanical machine, belching untreated by products into the environment. We need a move to user and polluter pays, where the environmental and social costs of pollution are internalised by producers and paid by consumers, rather than externalised onto the environment, the taxpayer and future generations. Dick Cheney might believe in a technological fix for everything but it is cheaper and healthier for everybody to reduce, reuse and conserve at the point of production and consumption. This little country will deeply regret it otherwise.
"Noisy Data" I couldn’t describe
"Noisy Data" I couldn't describe the situation any better. That is exactly my point.
People are so concerned with arguing about carbon sinks and overall energy enthalpy that they are not seeing the obvious answer right it front of them. This is not "deck chair" arguments or an attempt to obfuscate the subject or even stall the conversation. This is my objection to the use of pseudoscience and then relabeling it as actual science. I have comb through the models and examined the data. I have even done my own modeling. And what my noisy data tells me is ether we don't have a clue what is going on (95% chance) or we are in danger and we are looking in the wrong place (1% chance), nether of which is an expectable explanation. Or it could even be that CO2 has been a problem since humans first became an agrarian culture (4% chance). In which case where simply stuck between a rock and an asteroid. Everyday objective evidence is telling me the nightmare scenario you're predicting is even more remote since the evidence says otherwise. I can only say that there must be a certain level of the population that will always fell that the sky is falling and we should head for the hills in live a more "simplified" lifestyle. There will always be those that feel the end is near. It could possibly be pessimistic psychos hardwired in the human psyche and a remnant of evolution much like an appendix.
Where did this '1 in
Where did this '1 in 1000 year' labelling for recent flood events in Britain?
Like most things these days, repeat it enough times through various media and it becomes enshrined as fact somehow.
So, are 'natural' bush fires exempt from carbon tax calculation?
Or volcanos ! Quite an
Or volcanos ! Quite an amazing amount of pollutants are ejected into the precious air that we , and the farting dairy cows , breathe . Mount Pinatubo spewed 5 billion m/3 of material into the atmosphere , in 1991 . Tax the Filippinos for this gross invasion upon our rights to clean air ? ........As memory serves , we had awesome sunsets for 3 or 4 years after that . .......Bloody planet isn't code compliant with our Copenhagen treaty .
Floods in Britain: http://www.cosmosmagazine.com/news/1478/catas
Floods in Britain:
http://www.cosmosmagazine.com/news/1478/catastrophic-flood-split-britain...
Also isn't it interesting. The massive flooding of Canvey Island in (if I recall correctly) 1953 killed some 58 people and did huge damage. Strangely, it did not get linked to coming apocalypse. Then, of course, Britain was doing quite nicely - recovering from world war 2 so 'using' the flood for broader political purposes was not necessary.
As the link above points out, we were once connected to Europe. Then came much flooding - delivering us the English Channel - for which we Poms are most grateful to mother nature!! Think about it Powerdownkiwi and others. Had it not been for that great flood Adolph Hitler could have invaded England. As they say, every cloud has a silver lining!!
Cool , once in 200
Cool , once in 200 000 year floods .............And imagine if England was still connected to the mainland , Adolf Hitler might've been born in Purley . That would've made him hard and nasty . ( Von Ribbentrop was a benefactor )
Check this....> Chinese blogger jailed
Check this....> Chinese blogger jailed for criticising government
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=10611312
I get it. We are
I get it. We are so small that we don't make a difference. We can go forth and multiply, come-out-better-off while we've never-felt-better and we can has-it-all, and nothing will happen.
If something does happen, however, it will be because of something else - not us.
Record weather - ultimate record weather - is only part of Business as Usual - how silly of me! Here was I thinking records were - by definition - outside the statistical norm!
And whatever we are doing, if it is what we want to do, must be the right thing to do.
How blind I was.
What happened to the Easter Islanders again? The Sumerians? The Romans? The Greenland Norse? The Maya?
At some point, you can be a primitive society, and offload your transgressions on a god or gods, but at the point where we are now, we have to take responsibility for our actions.
Why is it so hard for some to step up to the plate?
Mark - I was studying things like adiabatic lapse rates 30 years ago (when I started flying) - and I haven't stopped studying. Sorry, but I get a bit short with "it's the weather, stupid" type comments. :)
andrewJ... Is the book u
andrewJ... Is the book u recommend "Dear Mr Buffett"
thks
"There is on the confines
"There is on the confines of western Britain a certain royal island, called in the ancient speech Glastonia, marked out by broad boundaries, girt round with waters rich in fish and with still-flowing rivers, fitted for many uses of human indigence, and dedicated to the most sacred of deities".
- St Augustine, ± 600 AD
The above refers to what we now call Glastonbury - once "girt round with waters rich in fish". Last time I was there the first thing I encountered was a kebab shop! Question is where is the water 'rich in fish'? It would appear that it receded. Maybe global warming will replace it and 'Avalon' will be once more. As I say, every cloud has a silver lining
I used to work flood
I used to work flood defence/development planning for the Environment Agency in the UK, their return period analysis is terrible, and they have peak level data dating back 200-250 years in places. Check out the numbers when they say that here in NZ, our accurate records are only in the order of decades.
I can not wait for Gen X/Y's time to steer the wheel of HMS-NZ, by then the baby boomers will be old and we can just pull the plug...........to funding public health care for the unproductive sectors on NZ. I say pension to 70 and public healthcare stops at 80. 10 years on benefits is enough these days, that is 12.5% of their life, and 16.6% of their working life on paid holiday. Maybe we could just give those over the age of 65 10 weeks paid leave a year and make them work the rest of the time as the Coal/Gold mines are going to need manning by then.
I hope their kids will pay them some pocket money for the baby sitting they are going to be doing! Heavens forbid they would want to turn up on our doorsteps to live when the resthomes get closed from lack of funds.
Yep http://www.amazon.com/Dear-Mr-Buffett-Investor-Learns/dp/047
Yep
http://www.amazon.com/Dear-Mr-Buffett-Investor-Learns/dp/047040678X/ref=...
Im enjoying it but i don't think much of Carlyle Group and a few others. Its opened my eyes a bit further. She's very easy to understand, its a good read.
@Mark H; "All this carbon
@Mark H; "All this carbon being released, and yet the earth has been cooling for over ten years now. How does that figure?"
1) Cherry picking of 1998 as a peak year and a 10 year band which was forced by an unusually strong el nino, if you took 25 years its a different line...
2) Then we swing into an el nina, which is a cooling phase...yet despite this its actually little cooler if at all.
"It's long been known that El Niño variability affects the global mean temperature anomalies. 1998 was so warm in part because of the big El Niño event over the winter of 1997-1998 which directly warmed a large part of the Pacific, and indirectly warmed (via the large increase in water vapour) an even larger region. The opposite effect was seen with the La Niña event this last winter. Since the variability associated with these events is large compared to expected global warming trends over a short number of years, the underlying trends might be more clearly seen if the El Niño events (more generally, the El Niño "“ Southern Oscillation (ENSO)) were taken out of the way."
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2008/07/global-trends-and-...
You just have to look at the graphs...
and here,
(Page 9 to 16 of 24)
http://www.amos.org.au/documents/item/82
"sipping cocktails onboard the luxury liner"
LOL....Fueled by debt....which is imploding the liner, with mad captains in charge wacking icebergs. Remember that lots of ppl refused to get into the (in short supply) lifeboats of theTitanic believeing the architect who said it was unsinkable. You just crack me up.....
@Paul: Sadly the baby boomers will hold the votes and hence your wallet and not you.
@RT: Indeed I think China nd the USA are locked in a lovers death grip as the leap happily off the cliff...
regards
inter decadal pacific oscillation google
inter decadal pacific oscillation
google it
Steve Netwriter -- can you
Steve Netwriter -- can you give me your e-mail address , please ( Bernard / Alex --hope you don't mind using your for this )
Yeah, that's the kind of
Yeah, that's the kind of capacitance I mean.
Physics never lies, and the second law of thermodynamics is no longer a theory.
You just have to go looking for the 'sink', given that you have a fair handle on how much you're looking for.
I've got a couple of Marine Science mates who suggest there is much unmapped in the vertical variations of ocean currents too.
Jim Salinger was interesting on Checkpoint this evening. Even mentioned clutching at straws....
Re #7...Didn't everyone start with
Re #7...Didn't everyone start with a net debt position of zero anyway? They each had $100 payable and $100 receivable. Nice try.
@Steve Netwriter: Re: Climategate....maybe a
@Steve Netwriter: Re: Climategate....maybe a brief flashback is needed...Watergate was Nixon breaking in and doing the dirty, looking for evidence...it blew back on him and cost him the Presidency.
regards
We will have heaps more
We will have heaps more to worry about if the climate goes into a cold cycle. There could be crop failures which may well lead to famine, the famine leading to disease and death and a break down in society.
Why do the IPCC ignore the Sun, the primary driving force of our climate?
The dangerous policies Smith and Key are implementing threaten our freedoms. What makes it so bad is that since gaining the treasury benches so much information is coming out about shonky peer reviewing, a cold spell that the computer models did not predict. And now the hacking of 1000's of emails which may well turn out to be the greatest scientific scandal.
Doing deals with the Maori Party where 3 out 5 MP's are against the ETS and all other parties do not agree with National's ETS scheme is definitely not what our democracy is about.
One can only come to the conclusion that these policy makers see something in their crusade that will eventually line their pockets.
The MSM has much to answer to with their muted silence over the hacked emails. I thought the role of journalists was to inform the public of what the 'elites' were doing. Not cover up for them. Aren't they meant to be the publics'"Watchdogs?"
powerdown- seriously, you're spending an
powerdown- seriously, you're spending an awful lot of time pointing out facts and models to show climate change and the consequences of inaction.
I respect this and agree with your analysis which is obviously based on years of research.
Unfortunately, MH, RT et al. do not WANT to consider any option other than "global warming is a hoax".
No matter what you say or do they are stuck in their own mindset....nothing you say or do can change this.
Is it not frustrating, nay head-into-a-brickwall exercise in futility trying to break thru to these guys?
Sally was that you walking
Sally was that you walking up Queen Street with me on Saturday?
Paul - No. You made
Paul - No. You made some interesting observations in your post.
I see the UK journalist
I see the UK journalist , George Monibot ( Guardian ) who has been a major AGW champion for years thinks the content of the emails are serious enough for him to be calling for Dr Phil Jones from the CRU of the University to be sacked ( or resign )
Ray - thanks. No, I'm
Ray - thanks. No, I'm quite comfortable doin' what I do. As you say, I spent years looking at it - but interestingly, the life you lead as a result is probably more fun. We did a year cruising the Barrier Reef when the kids were younger - most nine-to-fivers couldn't/wouldn't see their way clear to doing something like that.
And most of my contemporaries are on second-bimbo, second tribe trips, running round looking paunched, ready for the cardiac trip, balding, greying and stressed.
Wouldn't trade places in a million years!
I do it because I can't look my kids (or any kids) in the eye if I don't. Call it conscience - no bad thing to have.
Cheers :)
#7: this annoys me every
#7: this annoys me every time I see it. The story works only because there is no bank. In real life, the first in line to be paid is the banker, not the butcher. And there it ends.
@Troy: Google positive feedback CO2. Heres one: "additional amounts of carbon dioxide and methane released when rising temperatures trigger ecological and chemical responses, such as warmer oceans giving off more carbon dioxide, or warmer soils decomposing faster, liberating ever increasing amounts of carbon dioxide and methane"
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2006/05/060522151248.htm
This has been a worry for years, that we would use up the planet's buffer capacity to absorb CO2, and get into the range of positive feedback. Hopefully we aren't there yet, and it's just a blip.
#7. In real life, DG
#7. In real life, DG Canuck, the firm of butchers, Watson and Hotchin, keeps to E100 note; don't pay their debts, and the Hotel Hanover has to try to borrow E100 to replace the money to repay the hotel guests!
In this real life NA,
In this real life NA, the system protects those who get rich on other peoples money because the politicial parties are in a constant race to gather the donations!!! It is a festering cancer built into the social fabric of the beast. Watson and Hotchin and the others stand a greater chance of being knighted in the new year than they do of getting clobbered.
Troy, Thanks, but I think
Troy,
Thanks, but I think I cover it better ;)
I have 5,464 views on just that one thread!!!!!
http://neuralnetwriter.cylo42.com/node/2421
with "dispatches" on CBS news, NY Times and many more :)
I'm amazed there isn't masses of talk about this over here.
Those who think their ideology is safe had better wake up and read the news.
Just wanted to say great
Just wanted to say great job with the blog, today is my first visit here and I've enjoyed reading your posts so far
ugg bailey button UGG Cardy Grey UGG Classic Short
Took me ages to find
Took me ages to find this post, this time I'll bookmark it.
Just found this on another
Just found this on another site. Makes our Illustrious Leader look a tad insincere. No doubr his cheque is in the post.
I can't believe how NZ,ers have taken this absurd tax without a whimper. Too busy worrying about the price of houses if the comment thread is anything to go by!
Quote
"The Prime Minister of New Zealand, John Key, has just introduced the world’s first Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) today for new Zealand. It is not going over well with voters.
This is the same man who, when in opposition, described anthropogenic climate change as a hoax on the 10th may, 2005.
See Hansard debates at:
http://www.parliament.nz/en-NZ/PB/Debates/Debates/3/2/8/47HansD_20050510...
EXCERPTS:
JOHN KEY (National—Helensville) : “I rise on behalf of the National Party to give the good news to the people of New Zealand—that is, the Climate Change Response Amendment Bill is a load of rubbish and the National Party will not be supporting it, for very, very good reasons indeed.”
…
“Yet here we are down in New Zealand, a very little country with about 0.2 percent of the world’s emissions, putting a self-imposed straitjacket on our businesses, and waving a huge flag that says: “Foreign investment, don’t come anywhere near us. Australia is over there—the West Island. Go over there to pour your dollars in.” To the Chinese we are saying: “Come in and buy as much coal as you like from our West Coast. We’ll sell it to you and you can burn it without a carbon charge—but, by the way, to those back here in Aotearoa New Zealand we will be slapping on a carbon charge and you won’t be able to operate.”
…
“This is a complete and utter hoax, if I may say so. The impact of the Kyoto Protocol, even if one believes in global warming—and I am somewhat suspicious of it—is that we will see billions and billions of dollars poured into fixing something that we are not even sure is a problem. Even if it is a problem, it will be delayed for about 6 years. Then it will hit the world in 2096 instead of 2102, or something like that. It will not work."
"I can't believe how NZ,ers
"I can't believe how NZ,ers have taken this absurd tax without a whimper. " - Exactly what my husband was saying last night. As he said if pollies tried this (ETS + GST increase) in France the whole country would be on strike and paralysed until they backed off. Here, the govt says they'll take more of our money and people go "oh well, OK then"!!
And in addition.... New
And in addition....
New Zealand begins emissions trading scheme, meanwhile the Gore/Pachauri Chicago Climate Exchange is flatlining
Posted on June 30, 2010 by Anthony Watts
The months of flatlining at the Chicago Climate Exchange (CCX) should be a hint to the rest of the world that carbon trading is dead. Time to take it off life support. Even at 10 cents a ton, nobody wants it. At it’s peak in July 2008, it traded for $7.50 per ton of CO2.
From ACM:
Token Gesture Alert as the government of New Zealand, unable to think straight thanks to years of green environmental propaganda, brings in its emissions trading scheme.
New Zealand emits about 0.1% of global CO2. So even if New Zealand reduced its emissions to zero overnight, AND it were demonstrated that the climate sensitivity is large enough to notice (which it hasn’t been), it would make not the slightest bit of difference to the climate.
Not only that, but I hardly think that China and India are going to look at New Zealand, and, wracked with guilt and remorse by the plucky little country’s valiant efforts to save the planet, stop their coal fired economies in their tracks. Not on your life. China and India are far too busy building their prosperity and lifting their populations out of poverty. It’s only wealthy countries can afford the luxury of pointless environmental gestures like this.
So the only result will be higher prices for poor Kiwis. Everything will cost more: electricity, petrol, groceries, consumer goods – everything – since everything (virtually) requires energy for its production or transportation. As the ABC reports:
New Zealanders are bracing for higher electricity and fuel prices with the introduction of an emissions trading scheme (ETS).
From today New Zealanders will pay around three cents a litre more for fuel.
Electricity bills are set to increase by up to 5 per cent as companies pass on the costs of buying carbon credits to consumers.
Environment minister Dr Nick Smith says New Zealand had to act because its greenhouse gas emissions have increased by 25 per cent over the past 20 years. [So from absolutely tiny, to slightly less absolutely tiny]
“It’s actually about New Zealand starting the path, starting the change to a less carbon intensive economy,” he said. (source)
Good luck with that. Just watch your industries move offshore, and your economy decline for no purpose whatsoever.
@prosperopink I absolutely
@prosperopink
I absolutely agree 100%. A token gesture for absolutely no benefit.
And what great timing, ETS taxes push everything up and the politicians up their pay by 10% to make up for not having their travel perks. So cost to NZ
$ 1,700,000 to obtain savings of $ 600,000.
And we wonder why the ETS got through.
The straw that broke the
The straw that broke the electorate's back ?