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90 seconds at 9am: NZ$ strong on early OCR hike talk; US bank nerves

Posted in News

Click here to watch this morning's video.

Bernard Hickey details the key news overnight in 90 seconds at 9am in association with ASB, including news that the New Zealand dollar was firm again over the last 24 hours after stronger than expected retail sales figures increased speculation that the Reserve Bank will put up the Official Cash Rate earlier than expected.

The RBNZ has forecast leaving the OCR on hold until the latter part of 2010, but markets are saying it is now more likely to start lifting in early 2010 and rate hikes will be quite fast.  Wholesale interest rates are rising and so are government bond yields.

However, Finance Minister Bill English returned from his overseas bond sales trip saying he found strong demand for the bonds, NZHerald reported.

However, nervousness is growing inside the US banking system again on fears about big commercial property loan losses and as small business lender CIT nears collapse.

Goldman Sachs was also downgraded by Meredith Whitney, the analyst who was first to predict banking disaster last year.

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment in the box on the right or click on the "'Register" link at the bottom of the comments. Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making these comments.

4 Comments

Bernard, I can do the

Bernard, I can do the swap-rates estimation shown in your graph here, using bootstrapping if you don't have the proper software to do it. This is how financial analysts at institutions do it, ie, bootstrapping estimation of swap-rates. I can also estimate the fixed-rate of swap from 3-month LIBOR rates. I believe that using bootstrapping would be of great value to your site, since you're dealing with rates a lot on interest.co.nz . I am only suggesting if you don't have the tool already, but if you have them , then just ignore my suggestion here.

RBNZ removes some emergency liquidity

RBNZ removes some emergency liquidity measures - Kiwi goes bid 30 pips, look for a retest through the figure

House sale prices up 1.9%

House sale prices up 1.9% mom for Sept - broadly NZD supportive. NZ Fundamentals improving, look for the Bird to retest 0.7499 highs

the NZ dollar is headed

the NZ dollar is headed above .75, USD is a dying currency, dont think anything can revive it with Ben, tim and those other clowns are at the wheel, hope NZ is moving its reserves (if we have any) away from it into something else