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90 seconds at 9am: NZ$ strong on early OCR hike talk; US bank nerves
Click here to watch this morning's video.
Bernard Hickey details the key news overnight in 90 seconds at 9am in association with ASB, including news that the New Zealand dollar was firm again over the last 24 hours after stronger than expected retail sales figures increased speculation that the Reserve Bank will put up the Official Cash Rate earlier than expected.
The RBNZ has forecast leaving the OCR on hold until the latter part of 2010, but markets are saying it is now more likely to start lifting in early 2010 and rate hikes will be quite fast. Wholesale interest rates are rising and so are government bond yields.
However, Finance Minister Bill English returned from his overseas bond sales trip saying he found strong demand for the bonds, NZHerald reported.
However, nervousness is growing inside the US banking system again on fears about big commercial property loan losses and as small business lender CIT nears collapse.
Goldman Sachs was also downgraded by Meredith Whitney, the analyst who was first to predict banking disaster last year.
4 Comments
Bernard, I can do the
Bernard, I can do the swap-rates estimation shown in your graph here, using bootstrapping if you don't have the proper software to do it. This is how financial analysts at institutions do it, ie, bootstrapping estimation of swap-rates. I can also estimate the fixed-rate of swap from 3-month LIBOR rates. I believe that using bootstrapping would be of great value to your site, since you're dealing with rates a lot on interest.co.nz . I am only suggesting if you don't have the tool already, but if you have them , then just ignore my suggestion here.
RBNZ removes some emergency liquidity
RBNZ removes some emergency liquidity measures - Kiwi goes bid 30 pips, look for a retest through the figure
House sale prices up 1.9%
House sale prices up 1.9% mom for Sept - broadly NZD supportive. NZ Fundamentals improving, look for the Bird to retest 0.7499 highs
the NZ dollar is headed
the NZ dollar is headed above .75, USD is a dying currency, dont think anything can revive it with Ben, tim and those other clowns are at the wheel, hope NZ is moving its reserves (if we have any) away from it into something else