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Have your say: PM rules out flat tax system

Posted in News

Prime Minister John Key has today ruled out a flat tax system for New Zealand, telling reporters the government was "certainly not considering a flat tax", the NZ Herald reported.

See Bernard Hickey's opinion piece and video here questioning whether John Key is actually serious about reform, or whether he is mainly focussed on getting re-elected.

Your view?

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment in the box on the right or click on the "'Register" link at the bottom of the comments. Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making these comments.

21 Comments

Just a bit rich coming

Just a bit rich coming from Annette King , that Key and English are wasting tax-payers money by not heeding advice of the treasurey . And Michael Cullen did what , for 9 long years , Annette ? Methinks Ms. King is having an ideological burp .

<i>Your view?</i> Gee what a

Your view?

Gee what a shock. I say that with no bitterness or approval, you'd just have to be in fantasy land to think they ever even considered this.

I would like to know

I would like to know why a person with no expertise in tax, can think he knows a flat tax structure would fail. Who is it giving him instructions on what to say?

heres hoping Key is not

heres hoping Key is not going to reject ALL the working committees recommendation. I dont care too much the exact method of tax change but what is absolutely essential is
1) bring property speculation fully in to the tax take (land tax please)
2) lessen tax on savings to promote healthy habits and provide incentive to home buyers

I seriously doubt Key's credentials however. He's a banker and therefore not attuned to the realities of a productive enterprise.

@RT: The Treasury however seem

@RT: The Treasury however seem full of right wing zealots...hence why Cullen I suspect didnt pay them a lot of notice, especially when IRD could forecast the economy better.

@Wally who says it would succeed? ie make the country better off...if that's the goal? Simple really the Govn needs a certain amount of tax income and progressive taxes are how virtually all countries achieve that income.

Rather than dither about flattening the tax system, start making sure its working as is....if the very rich can tax dodge now, they will still tax dodge and pay even less while the poor make up the difference if we went flat.

If we are serious about making NZ richer then we need to be seriously looking at making exporting profitable....make it here and sell it elsewhere...that provides jobs and income to NZ...So look at making exporting greatly tax reduced by some method. Blanket company tax reductions just allow foreign owners to export more profits off-shore, which damages balance of payments...and makes it easier for churn businesses, neither really assist NZ.

regards

regards

@wally: This is why I

@wally:

This is why I wonder on why Interest rates / OCR "has to" rise....

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/10/10/the-madness-of-the-monetary-...

Bernard hits the nail on

Bernard hits the nail on the head with his question - the evidence and the logic says a good tax regime is like a good golf shot - low and flat. So the only real interest is the question "is John Key serious about economic reform?" Unfortunately the answer is simple. "Of course so long as it doesn't look like compromising political survival."

To be fair, he is far from alone in that..... hopefully, at the margin he is better than some others.

<i>If we are serious about

If we are serious about making NZ richer then we need to be seriously looking at making exporting profitable

No, we better start thinking about very, very limited government, which National are supposed to stand for, and then huge tax cuts, indirect and income taxes.

To Make New Zealand richer

To Make New Zealand richer we have to eradicate debt, stop relying on CG and increase PROFIT for all businesses.

If they are not VIABLE, then they should fail.

We are still bailing out UN-VIABLE businesses.

Also become a SOUTH SEAS TAX HAVEN...eh JOHN....ie....NO TAX..

National are not a small

National are not a small Govn party, Act yes, but thats 3.4% of voters...then there are the libertanz, all 1000 of them....hardly a political force to be concerned about.

Greatly limited Govn does not make NZ richer, all you do is pay "tax" to some private company for health or education or etc etc...its still a tax, ie a compulsory payment you have to make....and we can clearly see that private healthcare is a mess and more expensive...the USA is a prime example of not how to do a healthcare system.....it costs twice if not three times for worse health outcomes...and the private sector is intent on canceling policies or not giving healthcare where its due...at least with a Govn system there is a reasonably good channce you will get critical care...unlike America.

So while I can agree on actively seeking a smaller Govn there are clearly areas where Govn tax and provision are the lowest cost with the best outcomes...

regards

"the evidence and the logic"

"the evidence and the logic" what evidence? what logic?

I see no evidence. Logic no, idealogy, yes....

regards

I tend to agree with

I tend to agree with Stevens line of logic

Brent Says:
"Bernard hits the nail on the head with his question "“ the evidence and the logic says a good tax regime is like a good golf shot "“ low and flat."

No way, long and flat is great off the tee, or on a range, but the critical shot is the one on to the green, next to the pin....high with back spin so you dont run off the back of the green and drown in the lake.

The best guidance for NZ

The best guidance for NZ is to look at what has worked overseas. Obviously there is no one country with 'best practice' and everything in interrelated. We know CGT and land tax did not work in USA, Australia or UK. We know flat tax has worked in Eastern Europe, Russia and other places. We know large governments do not work and government spending usually leads to lower productivity. There is no perfect answer.
just some are less bad than others. Overall smaller govt and people largely taking responsibility for themselves works best. No it is not perfect. If you take extremes like say Cuba you can see the effect of large govt interference. Unfortunately there is no extremes the other way but countries that introduce more freedoms produce overall better results. Take China. Economic freedoms has improved enormously over the last 20 years and the results speak for themselves (obviously they still have a long way to go!).

Hmm, yes Steptoe, when an

Hmm, yes Steptoe, when an analogy backfires...LOL...

I do think our tax system needs work though....the IRD? commented that they are not getting the tax take from the higher earners now as they are being effective in minimalising it....so that needs fixing....

There was a good piece by Dr Ganesh Nana of BERl...I just read in a business magazine....will try and find it on line, but what it comes down to is Govn debt is trivial compared to bank debt, yet we are being hammered for possible future Govn debt, when the bank / company /private debt is a far bigger issue. He also commented on the finance companies that used to specialise in business finance are moving into property/housing because its seen as less risk and better returns....aka MARAC I assume

ie our financial sector needs some serious sorting out....but its seen as profitable...and I wonder what the links are to Key from the banking industry...some effective background lobbying maybe...

@Stephen: "We know CGT and

@Stephen: "We know CGT and land tax did not work in USA, Australia or UK." actually we do know....at least some of the comments I have seen suggest a CGT actually takes off the worst ie does have some effect.

steven Says: October 14th, 2009

steven Says:
October 14th, 2009 at 10:03 am

@Stephen: "We know CGT and land tax did not work in USA, Australia or UK." actually we do know"¦.at least some of the comments I have seen suggest a CGT actually takes off the worst ie does have some effect.

Would like to see the studies but from my personal experience in the UK, people will not sell or buy because of the tax even when it would be a better financial decision for them to do so. Also more sophisticated investors use companies and whatever to work around the tax. More 'compliance costs' just means the more sophisticated spend more on accountants and lawyers.

"We know flat tax has

"We know flat tax has worked in Eastern Europe, Russia and other places. We know large governments do not work and government spending usually leads to lower productivity."

Russian Govn has a huge oil income to boost its earnings....Eastern Europe seems to be one huge basket case....hardly poster boys for a flat tax regime that "works".

We dont know large Govns do not work...and we dont know Govn spending leads to lower productivity, this is conjecture and political ideology.... I can accept that total Govn does not work, just as total non-Govn does not work...what we should be doing is testing the scenario/problem for the best solution, if its Govn, its Govn, if its private, its private, and not get bogged down in politics and ideology.

"If you take extremes like say Cuba you can see the effect of large govt interference." In what way? Cuba actually has a good health care system, of the "large interference" was actually where it has been crippled is from the USA's effective boycott/isolation of its economy.

Further, Cuba isnt large Govn but total Govn, you cannot easily of fairly take an extreme failure (be that failure or success) and say some % of that solution well it doesnt matter that's a failure as total was a failure as well, its totally out of context... Looking at Cuba did it fail? given the hardships Cuba faced at the hands of the USA then indeed its actually a success, ie its people survived despite the US embargo.

Compare to North Korea...now that is a basket case...

"Overall smaller govt and people largely taking responsibility for themselves works best." The USA is a case in point against that, ie they are one of the few countries not to have a socialised healthcare system, but a private one, yet they have a shorter life expectancy and huge healthcare costs, 17% of GDP....thats double the cost on GDP compared to just about any other country with a socialised / public healthcare system.

China, yes this is an improvement, but its gone from total control, to well still pretty much total control...far worse still politically than NZ.

regards

# steven Says: October 14th,

# steven Says:
October 14th, 2009 at 11:09 am

"Russian Govn has a huge oil income to boost its earnings"¦.Eastern Europe seems to be one huge basket case"¦.hardly poster boys for a flat tax regime that "works".

They are less of a basket case than they were before flat tax!

"We dont know large Govns do not work"¦and we dont know Govn spending leads to lower productivity, this is conjecture and political ideology"¦."

Rubbish. Study after study has shown it works. Certainly not conjecture and political ideology

"If you take extremes like say Cuba you can see the effect of large govt interference." In what way? Cuba actually has a good health care system, of the "large interference" was actually where it has been crippled is from the USA's effective boycott/isolation of its economy.

"Yes lets blame some else. If you think Cuba is a success story I would advise you to go and have a closer look. Appalling food, accommodation, infrastructure, incomes and more. This is why Raul Castro (Fidel's brother) is rapidly trying to change things like removing free lunches, decentralising, leasing idle state land to private farmers and much more.

"Overall smaller govt and people largely taking responsibility for themselves works best." The USA is a case in point against that, ie they are one of the few countries not to have a socialised healthcare system, but a private one, yet they have a shorter life expectancy and huge healthcare costs, 17% of GDP"¦.thats double the cost on GDP compared to just about any other country with a socialised / public healthcare system.

About 50% of the US healthcare is from the US tax payer. Called that privatised?

Frankly, I think the country

Frankly, I think the country is so stuffed, nothing the fools in the Beehive dream up can prevent twenty years of shite. Only those who manage to keep all four trotters and their snouts in the public trough will come through smelling of roses.

I have read the tax

I have read the tax working group report and can say that I am amazed and dissapointed by Key's announcement's yesterday.

The scene had been set, public expectations were awaiting a change. We need to put the politics aside. This new tax system sketched out yesterday isn't good for New Zealand. I know the detail isn't out yet, however, we can't have selling-property-to-ourselves as the main engine of our economy, the oppourtunity cost of doing so is that we aren't investing in productive areas of the economy. This is basic 5th form economics, it is so obvious and this was spelt out very clearly by the tax working group. Our standing in the world won't improve if the greatest incentive is to invest our capitial into residential property.

The tax breaks obtained by owning investment residential property need to be sorted out. Modifying the depreciation on buildings is just tinkering around the edges. John Key really does need to burn some of his political capital and do what is right for our country. These announcements are too politically safe and do nothing to help advance our small economy.

Smug and underwhelming.

Steven, no-one "forces" you to

Steven, no-one "forces" you to pay for education or healthcare or any other product or service in a free market. The only organisations that can (legally) force you to do anything you don't want to do are governments. I don't expect taxpayers to pay for insurance on my car house and contents so why should I expect them to pay for my health insurance?

And again, holding the US health system up as an example of "free market failure" would be laughable if it weren't so tragic that people are being conned into supporting statist health systems by misinformation. The US system is a mess (few deny that) but that is a result of interventionism at state and federal level that results in bizarre rules and anomalies that push costs up overall while subsidising some groups. The interaction with Medicare and Medicaid subsidies means that people are disconnected from the cost of the health services they use (like they are in New Zealand's socialised system).

Funnily enough the New Zealand insurance market is much less regulated than the American one, particularly in health insurance. But because we think Nanny State will save us only about 33% of us have health insurance whereas 93% of us have third-party car insurance for example. If people need to look after themselves they tend to do so.