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Opinion: How Neoliberalism has failed New Zealand
By Selwyn Pellett Neoliberalism has become so entrenched in the political and economic thinking of our country that we can no longer see the value in simply applying common sense to solve our economy's problems. It seems that unless a solution can be couched in terms of Neoliberal economic theory then we dismiss it as having no merit. We have ticked all the boxes of accepted, mainstream Neoliberal theory, often long before others were willing to do so: deregulation, trade liberalisation, free flow of capital, selling off state assets, semi-privatisation of remaining state owned enterprises, the removal of indiscriminate subsidies, tinkering with our tax system (hopefully way more to go) and the opening of our economy to all comers. All of these measures we were assured, would help secure our economic future, because that's what the theorists said they would do. So here's the surprise; some theories don't work in the real world. New Zealand now languishes at No 46 in GDP per capita (PPP) wedged between Gibraltar and Slovenia and only just above Israel and South Korea. We are well below Singapore which sits at No 9 (CIA World Fact Book January 2009).
Those countries above Singapore in the list - Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Qatar, Bermuda, Jersey, Norway, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates "“ either have natural resources (oil) or are heavily involved in financial services (Liechtenstein, Luxembourg, Bermuda and Jersey) that bolster their economy. So what does Singapore have that keeps it in such company? Frankly, nothing other than a Government that introduced common sense policies to make the most of what they did have (labour) and prevented exploitation because of what they didn't have (capital). Over time Singapore has grown a significant capital base that could now buy and sell New Zealand. There have been many articles and blog comments about why we can't or don't want to adopt some of Singapore's policies and I keep asking why not? Many of these criticisms have focused on Singapore's social policies which we might not find palatable. Let's be clear on this, there are economic policies and there are social policies and I'm not advocating that we adopt the latter. Critics of the idea that New Zealand should look carefully at the cause of Singapore's economic success should not be side-tracked by debates on the merits of Singapore's social policies. If we had the death penalty for murder or drug trafficking, canning for some offences, limited opposition parties (but free elections) would that fix our economy? Of course not, so why have these social policies been used to justify why we can't adopt some of the common sense economic policies. I think, and it seems that many foreign economists agree, that Singapore's absolute rejection of Neoliberalism has been its salvation. In a paper on Monetary Policy in East Asia: The Case of Singapore, Bennett T. McCallum says "In light of Singapore's macroeconomic success over the past 15 years, as discussed by various writers including Devereux (2003), Gerlach and Gerlach-Kristen (2005), McCauley (2001), Parrado (2004), and Rajan and Siregar (2002), it seems apparent that this type of policy regime could be an attractive contender for adoption by other highly open economies" -- open economies like ours, in point of fact. So why do we remain locked into this Neoliberalism mantra that our politicians keep chanting? I suspect we are suffering from what could be termed "battered country syndrome" and have developed a codependent relationship with our "abusers", the international, freewheeling money markets. You need look no further than the way the media and the consumers get excited by a high Kiwi dollar, as if it was some tacit endorsement of our worth by those outside our shores, to see this syndrome in action. Just today a commentator was talking about high yielding currencies like the Kiwi and Australian dollar. Well high yielding to whom is the obvious questions and it's not New Zealand. International banks can and do generate their profits anywhere. If the opportunity is good here they will take the quick gain and leave at a time of their choosing. Could that explain the volatility of our exchange rate, an exchange rate that is traded at more than 118 times our GDP while the Singapore dollar is only traded at half that figure relative to GDP? Could it be that Singapore's Capital Management Techniques - that were introduced specifically to insulate the country's economy against disruptive speculation, protect their soft foreign exchange peg and to increase financial stability - are actually working? Imagine that; restricting capital flows actually improves financial stability and, dear I say it, delivers economic sovereignty as well. You will not see any cap- in-hand behaviour from the Singaporean government, sucking up to international financiers. Why? Because they don't have too. Singapore has won economic sovereignty by believing in itself and showing the world it had the pragmatism and tenacity to go it alone. As long as New Zealand continues to employ variations to the OCR as its only monetary lever our economy will continually be played by foreign interests. We have to introduce restrictions on capital flows. Reserve Bank Governor Dr Bollard has already said that he "can control the price of money but not the volume of it". Frankly a high school economics student could tell you how flooding the economy with surplus cash will inevitably lead to asset inflation and that will lead to an increase in the CPI and a lift in the OCR and that will lead to a lift in the exchange rate and increase in our need for debt-funded consumption to balance the economy as exporters' incomes die. We can continue to sell houses to each other, using foreign capital to finance the transactions, until our ability to pay the interest component trends to zero as all our exporters shut up shop, but then what? I've yet to see a "Plan B" for meeting interest payments without exporters providing the revenue to do so. Singapore knew it had to have a strong tradable economy and set about introducing policies to protect that first and foremost. Isn't it amazing how planning for a particular outcome instead of leaving it to the market to decide actually works? Neoliberalism has failed us badly but the question is do we have the guts to stand up and say we too can go it alone? Nation building doesn't happen by accident and it doesn't happen by following popularity polls. It happens when people of vision stand up and ignite the passion within all of us to strive for something better. The world has changed and those that can't see that are locked into the past and need to be pushed aside so those of us who want to look forward can get on with building a nation that can actually support itself. * Selwyn Pellett is the co-founder, director and former CEO of Endace Ltd, founder, CEO and Chairman of Imarda Ltd and Spokesperson for the Productive Economy Council.
159 Comments
Don't discount the cultural factors
Don't discount the cultural factors as well: discipline; a focus on family and the group; hard work; a high emphasis on education; and a penchant for saving. And I hate to the add the last but it's necessary: little expectation to blame the govt for its woes. Without these cultural traits, I doubt that Singapore would be as successful as it is despite the govt's policies and micro-management.
As for neo-liberalism in NZ, I guess that individual responsibility and less expectations for the govt to provide are necessary to make it work. If NZ were truly neo-liberal, wouldn't we have a more equitable tax system? And is the restriction of capital inflows going to help us in the long run? Across the ditch, the RBA is actively encouraging capital inflows for capital formation.
Neoliberalism: that's a term with
Neoliberalism: that's a term with many meanings, at least in the way it seems to be used. Can I please have a definition within the context of this article?
excellent article. I always thought
excellent article. I always thought a completely free market was a great thing if everyone else practices it. The reality is they dont, everyone protects their own interests (except NZ it would seem over the last 15 years). A country should be run a bit like a family business I reckon. What is number 1 for the business is not always best for the family, especially when the business is sold off to non family members for short term gain. It seems like a fairly basic lesson long lost on Rogernomics and his successors. We can control some factors affecting our business to benefit us, so lets do it.
a case in point re
a case in point re emerging bubble in Singapore
"In Singapore, the government has shut down bank lending schemes that allowed buyers to defer mortgage payments on uncompleted developments, and hinted at land sales to increase supply."
The Singapre govt gives a crap about housing affordability, regardless of the short term benefits from injection of capital. This is an IMMEDIATE response. How long till our govt stops fluffing around.
Go,Selwyn. One thing we do
Go,Selwyn.
One thing we do now is that the extreme in the opposite direction to Singapore, the mighty(?) USA is not a capitalist state but a corporatist state (ruled by corporate greed) where the corporate lobby against change is greater then the power of the government.
So what choices do we have?
The present one is deeply flawed and concepts offered above may just succeed if we allow them to.
The fact is that without the drag of interest paid on our overseas borrowings, we would almost certainly not now be trying to catch up with Australia.
All good points and certainly
All good points and certainly food for thought.
I've two questions, not opinions, on this.
First, wouldn't a move away from a strategy that is so carved in stone cause major disruptions. I'm guessing that even if our government were to debate changes in economic policy there would be a huge tide of negative market sentiment. In other words, the short term price of changing tack may be too high.
Second, do we still have people with the required skills to manage a transition? Wouldn't the non-neoliberal economists all have left the scene a long time ago?
A few good points there.
A few good points there. Monetary policy in Singapore works a lot better than here, frankly. The Singapore dollar is fixed to a basket of foreign currencies, and therefore its trade weighted nominal exchange rate is stable. The benefits of this seem lost on most NZ policy makers. I'd rather see NZ factor and consumer prices adjust, with a stable nominal exchange rate. The fixation on consumer price inflation is not as good an idea as it first appears to be, especially in a global economy with a freely floating national fiat currencies abroad. However, it had to be pointed out that the present and the Singapore monetary policies are not any more or less neo-liberal than each other, and neither are free market policies. A free market monetary policy is to define the currency as a fine mass of gold, and let banks freely issue bank notes denominated in and payable in gold coin, and to have free minting (manufacturing) of gold metal into full bodied coins (the coins would be legal tender, not the bank notes).
Singapore's commercial and financial policies are almost entirely consistent with neo-liberalism, and to the small extent that its policies are proactively encouraging one industry over another I doubt you'd find convincing evidence that it is responsible for helping Singapore's economic performance.
Singapore is not that different from Bermuda, Cayman Islands, British Virgin Islands, iechtenstein, Luxembourg, Jersey, all of them are successful offshore financial centres. NZ is somewhat of an offshore financial centre, but it could be much better by removing statutory exemptions to bank secrecy and trustee secrecy (i.e. NZ IRD telling on foreign taxpayers to their revenue authorities of their bank data and NZ based tax free foreign trusts).
Singapore doesn't restrict the flow of capital, so, other than restricting flows of capital, what is the author proposing? nothing
Thank you David Hilary. I
Thank you David Hilary. I agree entirely.
Bill, "wouldn’t a move away
Bill,
"wouldn't a move away from a strategy that is so carved in stone cause major disruptions. "
The whole point about moving away from an ideology is that you are favouring pragmatism over a philosophy. Whatever works best for the people of your country / economy is what should win the day. eg reducing foreign speculation on residential property is one case in point. The only major disruption might be to the latest property seminar Harcourts are running in Shanghai. Pity them.
<b>Selwyn : What a pile
Selwyn : What a pile of blithering nonsense ! . You want central government to have more control in our affairs ? We always have had massive central government control . Only for brief periods of 3 or 4 years at a stretch has capitalism been given a fair run in this country . Look at the parlous state nitwits such as Muldoon and latterly Cullen left our finances in . And the government already owns KiwiBank / KiwiRail / 80% of AirNZ / ACC / and soon the Cullen fund will pick up Shell's petrol bowsers . ........... .Our problem , Selwyn , is that we give up too soon , gotta stop for a cuppa . Introducing free market enterprise into a country with 150 years of entrenched socialism is a maraton run , not a 100 metre sprint .
Excellent article but our problems
Excellent article but our problems run deeper than economic policy we used to be a lender to nations way back in the 50s-60s when we valued hard work, living within our means and saving but then babyboomers came along and changed all that to individualism, consumerism, greed and spend spend spend.. making it easy for corparate bankers to take the western population captive to debt slavery. Thankfully Im not one of them.
<i>Neoliberalism: that’s a term with
Neoliberalism: that's a term with many meanings, at least in the way it seems to be used. Can I please have a definition within the context of this article?
Mark, does it matter what definition of neo-liberalism is in this context? It grates me when people just go on about 'neo-liberalism' and how it's bad, 'failed' etc without saying what it is, but in this case the author seems to be more making an argument for Singapore's handling of monetary policy - i'm not even sure it was necessary to mention neoliberalism.
About as good as anything
About as good as anything else:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neoliberal
Next....
Oh yes - its not
Oh yes - its not working, problem is we are not trying hard enough, downing man just thrash harder.
Has anyone worked out that the above agenda aggregates wealth globally?
I think that is what
I think that is what happened at Easter Island.
I think Brian W commented on this but cant find the link, mayb someone can help.
I think that is what
I think that is what happened at Easter Island. Brian W posted on this but I dont have the link can anyone help?
Well I thought emigrating was
Well I thought emigrating was a simple choice of going to the lucky country but this Singapore country sounds like they have the brains at the top to serve citizens very fairly.
Anyone that thinks Selwyn is
Anyone that thinks Selwyn is talking sense send my your email, click on John Walley and follow your nose.
The Easter Island Story, by
The Easter Island Story, by Brian W:
http://www.interest.co.nz/ratesblog/index.php/2009/10/02/tax-working-gro...
.... doomed to repeat?
What have we learnt?
Roger Thompson "Blithering nonsense" Really?
Roger Thompson "Blithering nonsense" Really?
Bombast does no good for anyone.
Ever heard of reward for risk?
We know the risk because we are currently living it.
The reward under the present system is defiantly obscured 25 years on.
Selwyn's answer may not be any more risky purely because he can point to the Singapore case. Even if NZ were to have a modicom of commonality, I would be willing to give it a go.
Dream on Roger.
When Lee Kwan Yu came
When Lee Kwan Yu came to power - Singapore's per capita income was less than that well known economic powerhouse Burundi.
We know it works - Let's just do what they did !
Start with compulsory super - then compulsory home ownership
Low taxes
No welfare
Eduction to world class - not an NCEA
Stamp out crime - plain clothes police !
It's not that hard - just very different from what we do.
As a kiwi living in
As a kiwi living in Singapore this is a great post that brings up many themes I'm interested in.
I have to say that Singapore maintains a steady hand and eye on their long term goals and ensure that there are no shortcuts taken. However it's far from being all on the government's shoulders, the general populous has a very healthy attitude when it comes to fiscal responsibility. While I don't like the way Singaporeans put such a high value on some consumer goods (LV bags are more common than anything I've seen, but how many are real?) they all strive for higher education for their children and will work long hours to achieve that goal.
Good article
<b>Logical Dave</b> : My choice
Logical Dave : My choice to be a bombastic twit , 'cos we still have some freedoms in NZ . A modicum of commanality ? That is what we have had , decades of it . The " dream " is the egalitarian Kiwi society . We have paid a high price for our democratic socialism , and this is where it has led us . And you want not just more of the same , but an even tighter government rein upon your life and upon the economy ? I shall dream on , friend , a dream of individual rights and responsibilties . Awful article !
good article, Mr. Pallett. after
good article, Mr. Pallett.
after so many decades of abject failure of the Reserve Bank Act, but still NZ persists in believing they are on the moral high ground, so it must be right.
quite close to the definition of insanity, really.
Perhaps we could just for
Perhaps we could just for a single moment STOP!
Throw away all our economic religions and look at the facts.
In 1965 Singapore was No 42 in GDP/Capita and New Zealand was No 11. What the hell happened when I was growing up that caused this massive change?
Well there are millions of things of course and if you want to be dismissive just pick any one of them and say because of this we can't compare our country with Singapore. Rubbish! We compare ourselves to Australia with all it's mineral resources and we compare ourselves to Ireland who is part of the EU. So why not Singapore? Could it be because we don't want to believe their form of economic religion works and ours doesn't. Could it be that we have been brain washed for so long that we can't think independently any more.
There was a quote on the wall of my 5th form Science room that I have never forgotten"¦"¦"You can never prove a theory only disprove it"
Well I am saying that the world has disproved Neo-Liberalism as we know it so let's rethink the starting point of our arguments.
yes, economic religion. yes. brain
yes, economic religion.
yes. brain washed.
sadly for NZ, the majority of NZers have swallowed the "fee market" dogma hook, line and sinker, as my dad would have said.
Marshall Says: November 6th, 2009
Marshall Says:
November 6th, 2009 at 8:32 pm
As a kiwi living in Singapore this is a great post that brings up many themes I'm interested in.
Marshall I lived and worked in Singapore for two years as well and have had staff there ever since. As I am living here now I clearly prefer New Zealand "overall" but Singapore has many things I would love to see here and personal safety, national pride and sense of personal responsibility are but three.
Roger which countries have you lived and worked in. It's so easy to be dogmatic when your perspective is one of one or one of two.
Selwyn, what do you mean
Selwyn, what do you mean by neo-liberalism? And, other than restrictions on capital flows, which Singapore doesn't have, do you propose we copy from Singapore?
Are you now banging heads
Are you now banging heads again in stead of working together creating "New Ideas" - stupid!
http://www.interest.co.nz/ratesblog/index.php/2009/10/23/opinion-why-new...
Maybe poor and random or
Maybe poor and random or rich and aligned is the choice we face? What makes the difference - leadership?
In a microeconomic sense, imagine if the players in a commercial activity were free to do what they liked, to the point of even doing nothing. I doubt there would be much competitive advantage generated.
Please don't confuse the presence of freedom with the absence of responsibility.
For two decades the neoliberal agenda had transferred wealth from our tradeable sector to the rest of the economy (as it was designed to do) "“ it really can't be sustained for much longer.
David Hillary Says: Singapore doesn’t
David Hillary Says: Singapore doesn't restrict the flow of capital, so, other than restricting flows of capital, what is the author proposing? nothing.
David perhaps you could expand on what you think Singapore does and doesn't do differently to New Zealand and where those differences are positive and where they are negative to the population.
<b>Selwyn </b>: NZ & Oz
Selwyn : NZ & Oz . And I married a Filippina , so it's not safe to be dogmatic, I might get fried ! And did I compare us to Oz or to Singapore ? No ! So why make the comparison at all . I'd be happy just to see us enact policies that make us a happier and more prosperous little nation . Don't care where we fit on the OECD tables . But do care that our bright , energetic youngsters see better possibilities in Oz or elsewhere . And many don't come back . And I care that our economy is overbalanced with debt , holding up a ponzi-like housing market . ............ . And the solutions to our problems may invlove more commonsense , than drifts off into some other country's ideologies .
Selwyn, Great article. You have
Selwyn,
Great article. You have good questions for David Hillary.
I would like to hear from David Hillary too.
Definition of Neoliberalism: Neoliberalism is
Definition of Neoliberalism:
Neoliberalism is a product of classical economic liberalism, which is the political and economic philosophy that supports and promotes the economic system of capitalism, opposing government intervention in the economy, and supporting the maximum of free trade and competition.
Broadly speaking, neoliberalism seeks to transfer part of the control of the economy from public to the private sector, under the belief that it will produce a more efficient government and improve the economic indicators of the nation.
Selwyn, I thought you were
Selwyn, I thought you were the one advocating Singapore policies? I like their lower tax rates and more reliance on private savings and insurance rather than welfare state for times and situations of need. Good banking and professional secrecy, a wealth friendly kind of place. I like they want to be competitive as an offshore financial centre rather than competitive as a tax dobber inner thar NZ appears to be going down. I like that they don't tax overseas sourced savings income of residents. Is that enough for you?
And they have good filipina house maids there, too (and yes, I know they have filipinos doing more appreciated and skilled work there too, and I married a filipina too).
I didn't know they canned
I didn't know they canned their criminals. I hope it isn't for human consumption.
Roger - something we should
Roger - something we should 'cherry-pick' out of Neo-lib'ism is removal of subsidies and lower, flatter and broader taxation to - wait for it, wait ..... here it comes .... removing the 'subsidy that go away' - include effective capital gain and asset taxation!! Not your favourite bit of Neo-lib'ism I know, but if y' can't beat em' join em' eh? Why do we resist this aspect of our favoured economic cult so much? Maybe your'e right, if we give proper Neo'lib'ism (inc. lower, fairer taxtion) a chance, maybe we'd have a show? Why not eh?
Picking cherries - nearly as much fun as picking Gummy Bear! Looks like the bears got mixed up with the cherries on that one though....
Fat chance NZ has of
Fat chance NZ has of ever rising up the OECD rankings when we have people like Harawira, Hyde,Chris Carter,Douglas and company running and ripping off the country. In Singapore they would be in jail by now. And to John Key, for Gods sake stop grinning and saying " I can live with that" because the working people are getting very sick, very quickly with the rubbish that is going down and they are NOT prepared to live with it. Beware!
David Hillary, yes I like
David Hillary, yes I like
Their lower tax rates and more reliance on private savings and insurance rather than welfare state for times and situations of need. (yes they can borrow against their supperanuation
Good banking and professional secrecy, a wealth friendly kind of place. No I probably stop short of this position David but more because I have seen the abuses of our forign banks here. (4 banks $3.6 billion profit, 46 companies in the NZX 50 $2.8 billion)
As Singapore has compulsory super annuation a lot of issues that are apparent here are removed. So strong private savings? Well yes but state dictated as was Australia.
For how much longer can
For how much longer can you guys afford banging heads with minor issues in stead of taking drastic actions. Guys - we are running out of time, we are also increasingly running out of options. There is only one solution the private sector has to engage the government (WORKING TOGETHER) in order to achieve major changes in our economy.
http://www.greens.org.nz/speeches/keep-manufacturing-nz-more-good-econom...
Setting up a "Green Light Industry" of course requires for a start more then just the private sector's initiative. Central & local governments need to be involved providing support and the finances for the "Set- up" for such an industry. It must be seen as an important task of national interest- in fact equivalent to our national security.
First priority we must reduce our current massive account deficit = less imports more export .
Now is the time for brains and shovels.
Walter
Ah yes, the neoliberal 'invisible
Ah yes, the neoliberal 'invisible hand of the market'. Much wiser than any government 'bureaucrat'. Has real ambition for the country. And can make plans for the future 10 or 20 years.
Invisible hand will be perfect if market made perfectly neoliberal. Then economy will grow and grow and we will all become rich (except for people who choose path of poverty).
I repeat. Say after me. Invisible hand of perfect free market is good. Planning by stupid bureaucrat is bad. Free market make economy go boom boom. Government planning bad bad.
Bernard is calling for a
Bernard is calling for a revolution now!
http://blogs.nzherald.co.nz/blog/show-me-money/2009/11/6/new-letter-gene...
"When are generations X and Y going to revolt publicly?"
I'm not sure that's allowed is it?
Hey, before you young turks start assaulting the 9th floor, may I suggest you get yourselves organised to support a CIR that will yield concrete evidence for a change focused mandate?
Go the young turks, no, not to Auz, here:
http://www.elections.org.nz/democracy/referendum/referendums.html
Revolution indeed, how the hell are you going to do that from behind a keyboard?
http://www.greens.org.nz/speeches/keep-manufacturing-nz-more-goo
http://www.greens.org.nz/speeches/keep-manufacturing-nz-more-good-econom...
..and have a look how many of our parliamentarians are present on that important issue "“ just ridiculous.
..and will people listen to Norman's speech and learn - NO - he's a "Greenie" - how stupid !
Les, Selwyn, John Wally, What
Les, Selwyn, John Wally,
What is your opinion on R. Norman speech ? So far you didn't comment - rather strange, because he is obvioulsy a strong supporter of manufacturing.
Les : I'm not arguing
Les : I'm not arguing against the picture that Bernard paints . He provides the answers , and it is commonsense , not rocket science . And not adopting the Singapore , or Bogota , or Kazakhstan , or any other model . We have the answers in our hands . But sadly , Jelly Key is sitting on his .
<i>I suspect we are suffering
I suspect we are suffering from what could be termed "battered country syndrome" and have developed a codependent relationship with our "abusers", the international, freewheeling money markets.
A very interesting analogy, but perhaps it over-emphasises that idea that the carry trade (i.e. money market speculators) are the core of our neoliberal reform 'problem'.
I think neoliberal ideology goes way beyond monetary policy, and has morphed into the wider and more encompassing ideology of globalisation. (See Steger, 2005, "Ideologies of Globalisation", Journal of Political Ideologies, 10(1), pp. 11-30).
That said, though, I definitely support your position Selwyn - it is an incremental step towards transformative change - and most certainly NZ needs one of Kuhn's 'paradigm shifts' in thinking, that's for sure.
There is no word in
There is no word in the English language that can't be made to sound more evil by adding "neo-" to it. Go on, try it for yourself. "Neo-Selwyn". See what I mean?
Walter : Rod Donald was
Walter : Rod Donald was the one member of the Greens who was listened to , and who got respect . He is greatly missed . Since he passed , we have got very little of substance out of them . Indeed , Helen Clark used them as a proxy to do her dirty work ( anti-smacking bill ) . They have alot of hard work to do to regain respect , and to be taken seriously .
@Selwyn and @Logical Dave: Greetings
@Selwyn and @Logical Dave: Greetings from someone whom you both know. It's very interesting to see you both appear on this web site and for Selwyn to start using it as his latest soapbox. I have been away overseas and only just noticed your appearance.
Selwyn made this statement in an earlier thread: "I would take almost any form of government that delivered wealth, prosperity and life options to its population over one that systematically erodes them all as ours do."
As part of my recent overseas trip, I spent a few days in Singapore. Certainly not enough to gain an in-depth understanding of their system as you have done, but it was explained to me what happens if you get sick in Singapore and don't have any money. Because there is no welfare, you are basically left to die. What sort of "Life Option" is that? Not really the sort of thing we want to see in NZ is it?
From the thought-provoking article above, you are espousing the notion that Economic Policy and Social Policy can be totally segregated. I would venture to suggest that this is untrue for reasons that should be fairly obvious. If you don't have to fund a welfare safety net, it gives you a while lot more options with your economic policy and vice-versa.
While I too admire many things about Singapore, the lack of any welfare system is not one of them.
Keep the articles coming Selwyn! They are always thought-provoking, even if I don't agree with some of your ideas.
Rogie, I thought Norman's speech
Rogie,
I thought Norman's speech is of high economic value. Anyway I didn't hear any of the Nats talking similar to him - ohh yes Brownlee coal- mining - hmm!
Gotta go , Walter .
Gotta go , Walter . We can have a chin wag tommorrow . The 4 y.o. is up & in a mood . Goodnight , man . ( watch out for those Thai imported crayfish.....ha ha ha )
Opps- great article Selwyn Pellett.
Opps- great article Selwyn Pellett.
Isn't it amazing how planning for a particular outcome instead of leaving it to the market to decide actually works?
That's the point - also works in Switzerland and other countries !
..and has nothing to do with government interference -> but working together.
Walter
From what I am reading,and
From what I am reading,and my experience during the 90's. It hasn't worked. There are too many spiv's in NZ. At present I am building a house totally on cash. I asked the 2 builders for copies of there passports and drivers, both refused. I show them bank statemwnts from NZ banks and asked them to arrange a meeting with my bank manager so they could confirm these funds. I want accountablility and ownership, not she'll be right. I've been working in miniing for yrs. I see this all the time. Hot ideas but no balls or no brains. My take on NZ at the mo is you can't trust. Look at all the people who lost money in all these finance companies, I can't understand why a midde class person just confronted these people. Most of the people on this web site are close to the people they lost or have had there money stolen from them. I think of blue chip, queenstown, wanaka. Basically, peoplle who have lost money stand up, make a noise. Forget lawyers letters and demand something. Longer you live silent the more hard working, real people lose out. Forget councils, govt to back you up. I like profit but I don't like it being stolen, thats what I see in NZ at the mo, rip off, fast talkin.
Steve Keen in his book
Steve Keen in his book "Debunking Economics - The naked emperor of the social sciences" completely and utterly destroys neo-liberal theory. In plain language he easily shows it up as a cultish pseudo science full of theories that fall apart in the real world.
http://www.mobipocket.com/en/eBooks/eBookDetails.asp?BookID=131405&Origi...
New Zealand has done nothing but impoverish itself since 1984. I'm not saying the command economy of Muldoon was any better, but the knee jerk policies of Douglas and co were just as bad, and in terms of loss of sovereignty, far worse.
Also the belief that the private sector is automatically better and more efficient than the state sector is crap. Neither Air New Zealand or NZ Rail ran better under private hands - they both went effectively bankrupt. Problem was the government paid way too much to buy them back. They should have waited for the receivers. Telecom has been all about exporting profits and minimal reinvestment in infrastructure since it entered private ownership. The BNZ and DFC needed a bailout. The list goes on and on if you include all the companies on the stock exchange that have disappeared through incompetent management. Being in the private sector is no guarantee of efficiency.
Academics and journalists like Jane Kelsey, Bruce Jesson and Brian Gaynor blew the whistle on the croynism that saw Roger Douglas, David Caygill, Ruth Richardson, Bill Birch etc deliver to their mates Alan Gibbs, Michael Faye, David Richwhite and co huge transaction fees and in mind boggling conflicts of interest, cheap cheap prices as they sold assets to the very people who were advising on the sale! No one listened to them. Jane Kelsey and no doubt other nay sayers got SIS files for their efforts. The fact that the "democratic" state is so sensitive to criticism should be food for thought for all of us on this site and other form of dissenting media.
Properly regulated private enterprise based capitalism is good, unbridled neo-liberal crony capitalism has and will continue to kill this countries economy and destroy its environment. And by the time the second wave of the GFC finishes, John Key will go down in history as perhaps the worst PM in recent memory. That continual dopey grin is giving him the look of the village idiot.
Steve K: I agree with
Steve K: I agree with you. Yes those 90s peope where the types. Yet again, peopleneed to stand up aagainist hem. It's quite easy, it's about local accountibility. Again, don't give any cash or opportunity till they are honest. Again I don't mind profit, but really who would give 50% of there wealth too blue chip or some queentown developer ?. I think NZer's need ait more streetwise. John Key has done a fine job of doing in the kiwi $ as an employee of a bank. Middle class need to say no more. It's as simple as that. workers on buses go on strike, now the middle group say, no: we want our money or benefits back. Enough is enough. No more intellectual / university arguement. People have been ripped off. It started with th employment contracts act and it need too stop. I don't have uni certs, but have worked in the mines and I am cashed up. But where to spend your money in my country ?
Steve K; from a working
Steve K; from a working person's view, the 90's we were robbed. As a cashed up oz mine worker, i've yet too see investment growth and honest at that, at a local level. But I bet if I had a nice degree or state all the buss words, yeah great. Or was the local lawyer or accountant in town. Funny thing is what worker has .5m cash, it's midde class that won't speak up or stand up. When they do, they will know what the bus workrs have had to go through. Again those 90's people just ripped us all off, everyone and our PM is one of them too.
stevek, excellent summary. Air New
stevek, excellent summary.
Air New Zealand is a fantastic example of an innovative company with its majority shareholder being government. Seen their latest ad campaign;
http://www.stuff.co.nz/oddstuff/3040091/Air-NZ-takes-the-mickey-out-of-H...
Priceless.
Grant K - maybe you
Grant K - maybe you missed this sentence in Selwyn's article, "Let's be clear on this, there are economic policies and there are social policies and I'm not advocating that we adopt the latter." Given you say about welfare and, "... you are espousing the notion that Economic Policy and Social Policy can be totally segregated. I would venture to suggest that this is untrue for reasons that should be fairly obvious. If you don't have to fund a welfare safety net, it gives you a while lot more options with your economic policy and vice-versa."
Grant, I'm all for bottom-line thinking, that is, reduce costs, however, why do we have to assume that 'cherry picking' a few aspects of Singapore's approach to suit our context means no welfare net? Why do we have to assume we have to have the whole hog? If we look at what might be/should be possible with expanding the top-line an appropriate level of welfare would be sustainable. (Just for the record I'm not advocating we maintain the level we have now, it could be reduced with appropriate refocusing.) Think top-line too! (A message to a good few of you.)
Walter - can you stop using that term, 'Green Light Industry'. Each time you do I start thinking of 'Green Light Infantry' with you and Russell Norman taking point armed with a lathe and a welding set and spraying flammable cutting fluid into any real estate agent office in your path. Stop it - my sides hurt! Anyway, when you posted that link to Russell's vid. I watched and did make favourable comments about it. Remember me saying, "Not bad for a Sheetey," and you questioned what a 'Sheetey' is and I told you? Remember? As for your comment:
"Are you now banging heads again in stead of working together creating "New Ideas" "“ stupid!
http://www.interest.co.nz/ratesblog/index.php/2009/10/23/opinion-why-new-zealand-needs-to-follow-singapores-example/#comment-43299"
If we are going to be repetitive, my answer to that kind of comment, here:
http://www.interest.co.nz/ratesblog/index.php/2009/10/23/opinion-why-new...
Regards choosing between a planned approach and free markets - I choose neither, I choose bits of both, along with bits of the Singaporean approach, bit's of Neo-lib'ism, stuff we can enhance that we already have:
http://www.interest.co.nz/ratesblog/index.php/2009/11/04/opinion-rbnz-ne...
any new stuff developed/adapted for OUR CONTEXT, while recognising an economy has finite boundaries - and because an economy behaves as a 'complex adaptive system', I reserve the right to change my mind, be adaptive and not get transfixed on any dogma or ideals - except of course implementing ..... nope, I can't say it, I don't want to spoil Roger's day so early.
There have been some great
There have been some great posts thus far. I hope there are more as the debate is helping us all (Including me) understand the country we actually want to live in.
Special thanks to (in no order yet)
Grant K. Says:
November 6th, 2009 at 11:18 pm
crazy bill Says:
November 6th, 2009 at 10:47 pm
David Hillary Says:
November 6th, 2009 at 10:11 pm
November 6th, 2009 at 6:00 pm
Marshall Says:
November 6th, 2009 at 8:32 pm
Bill Bennett Says:
November 6th, 2009 at 5:49 pm
Les Rudd Says:
November 6th, 2009 at 10:18 pm
stevek Says:
November 7th, 2009 at 12:10 am
Some of these give great ballance to the article and some support and extend it. I will over the weekend give some comments to these posts
Roger and W.KUNZ your views are well known and we will continue to debate them over time.
John Walley we seem to reading the same stuff so thanks fro the support and keep up the good fight.
@ Les Rudd: Thanks for
@ Les Rudd: Thanks for your thoughtful and reasoned response. When are you running for parliament? :)
@ Selwyn: Nice to catch up with you again. Cheers :)
Grant K - some of
Grant K - some of the worst leaders I've seen are in the NZ parliament. Just reflect on the last week. Why waste time going there to lead?
http://www.interest.co.nz/ratesblog/index.php/2009/11/06/opinion-how-neo...
Oh well, off to the lawns, yet again....
"Neoliberalism has become so entrenched
"Neoliberalism has become so entrenched in the political and economic thinking of our country that we can no longer see the value in simply applying common sense to solve our economy's problems."
Entrenched in our political, social, economic, employment...everything for the last 30 yrs.
Now I really dont know exactly what Neoliberalism is, or if it is the correct word, but do get the drift of where selwyn is going.
We dont have to look to Singapore, we just have to look at some of our enterpiners, farmers, sportsmen, adventurers and even employees that have survived from the 60s comfortably ....Old School commonsense has seen them thru alsorts of times.
The modern mentality is to pack cotton wool around those who dont want to measure up to their social responsablities...
ie an employ who contracts their labour in return for a given consideration, then spends work time surfing the net....Its simple ..this is theft as an employee (which I add, once was a serious offence) ..now that thief is protected by a whole heap of cotton wool, often resulting due to a truck load of technicalities being rewarded for the theft.
We have an education system that is failing a very large proportion of our children..for decades now...so we have a study (after study after study ) by highly educated ppl educated in modern narrow minded PC concepts, and total lack of plain old commonsense.
The greatest and most successful reform in education was the team of Frasier and Bebby..each from totally different motivations and basis, but the same good old common sense.
We have highly educated city planners who design public toilets on a busy street interesction...then put the door close to the road...making access for children, elderly down right dangerous....BUT the study shows this is the most effective way....commonsence CANT prevail
Motorway congestion....commonsense says to prevent this, get the cars off it fast, but no the data says drop a major intersection a 100m off the motorway....
History shows alway own at least 30% of what one posseses...why are we at this point in time financially? Because bean counters say the balance sheets show borrow borrow borrow...
We have also lost the ability to plan ahead, not for tomorrow, or next yr, but the next decades....
An art long lost...take the wood cutters of long ago, they marked trees and trained branches for the bows of big ships., over generations..and past these down father to son.
And the result of this planning...one of the largest, long lasting military/naval fleets and empires in history, The British Empire.
There s an old saying "Look after the pennies and the pounds will look after themselves".
I mentioned before the down hill slide started late 60s /early 70s about the time pennies turned into cents an no "Common".....about the time the old sayings our society, (and other civilisations) got scrapped.
We educate our children on modern 'fairy' stories..."Mommy and Daddy are going to live apart....what happened to 'little red riding hood' classic subversive learning.. dont talk to stangers....Goldilocks respect others property....
I waffle on here....
The point is this Neoliberalism liberalism now goes to the core of our society, in all matters, and is so bloody entrenched over several generations, maybe the only way it will be reversed is a simply full on collapse of our civilisation and start again...again history shows us this.
OR Get back to the basics of education from early child hood...make parents responsible AND accountable for their children again, and rebuild over the next 3 generations.
When a 1st yr Uni student can get 30% in a 1960s maths or English or physics School Cert exam paper, without a calculator, we will know we are on the right track.
"The world has changed and those that can't see that are locked into the past and need to be pushed aside so those of us who want to look forward can get on with building a nation that can actually support itself."
Grant K thanks for your
Grant K thanks for your piece as yes there are aspects of Singapore that I don't want either. Flick me an e-mail selwyn.pellett@imardainc.com so I accurately identify who you are.
Singapore ensures everything you need in society is there if you work at almost any level. HDB housing, great transport system, great communications system, great health system, great left brain education system including preschool. But the "wants" are a very different story. So wealth friendly yes"¦.but base level needs for the entire society certainly came first.
You are correct that economic and social policy cannot be totally decoupled but neither are they totally coupled. Singapore is an industrious nation and expects people to work and save and support their own desired standard of living. They are also very pragmatic. Sympathy is not given lightly.
Welfare is handled very differently as family support the sick and elderly that haven't had the opportunity or skill to save enough to support themselves. This sense of community is actually missing here and our welfare system with all its pluses has become an "absolute right" in the minds of many, regardless of the circumstances of their claim.
I see all tax payer funded activity as "shareholder money" to be used wisely by the management team (Government).
If you give or get an increase in salary you understand that relationship, if you borrow or lend money to someone in trouble you understand that responsibility on both sides, if you see someone totally unable to care for them self you know it requires intervention and generosity on your part.
Somehow our welfare system has removed all these logical and consequential relationships and decision points, "Its my right". has replace collective generosity and appreciation.
The same applies to PAYE deductions for property speculators "Its my right" has taken over regardless of the damage it does to our exporters and national debt.
In both cases, unjustified welfare support including ACC (of which there is some or even a lot) and unjustifiable tax treatment the recipient is taking options away from us as a country.
So individual responsibility as I have already said must be part of our new society.
Stevek spot on. Odds on
Stevek spot on. Odds on to whether JK will rise above GB in terns of losses to the people over the coming decade. Gordon is not a person that I would want my polical career to be measured against. History does not judge kindly failed doctines - ask Stalin, Hitler, Bush. JK could have made a a difference - that he chose not to in these times makes his crimes greater than any of Labours monumental mismanagement.
Les has just made my
Les has just made my top ten at ten with this comment"¦..
"Regards choosing between a planned approach and free markets "“ I choose neither, I choose bits of both, along with bits of the Singaporean approach, bit's of Neo-lib'ism, stuff we can enhance that we already have and any new stuff developed/adapted for OUR CONTEXT, while recognising an economy has finite boundaries "“ and because an economy behaves as a "˜complex adaptive system', I reserve the right to change my mind, be adaptive and not get transfixed on any dogma or ideals "“ except of course implementing "¦.. nope, I can't say it, I don't want to spoil Roger's day so early"
Les this is the best comment of the thread so far. So when are you standing Les as this sort of logic is missing in our Government today. The economic religion we have swallowed that says once implemented leave it alone is nuts.
In business we fight commercial warfare. Our supply chain is always challenge, manufacturing cost advantages lead to greater power at the front, technology leads to greater efficiency and productivity our troops need constant motivating and surprise surprise our enemy keeps changing geographies, strategy and tactics and we have to keep changing direction "on a dime" to combat those moves.
Make no mistake, we are in economic warfare with other countries at a real economy level and with global financial markets at an inflation and sovereignty level . They have to satisfy their stake holders and have no interest in ours beyond how it impacts them and in New Zealand's case that's very little.
As many have pointed out previously have a look at the detail in our free trade agreements. A smart business wouldn't sign most of them as they give up too much control for too little real return.
Great post! Capitalism works. We
Great post! Capitalism works. We have to give it time and stop meddling with it, but then those poor banksters would not be making such ginormous profits! Can't have that now, can we?
<b>Flipping heck , Selwyn .</b>
Flipping heck , Selwyn . : What sort of malarky is this where you write the article . Then after a few responses , you rank the bloggers on their usefulness to you , or their afinity to your views . ..... . Frankly I'm glad that Walter , John W & me are the bad boys at the back of the class . As I stated at the beginning , bilgewater , you are dribbling utter hornswaggle , on this " topic ." ( well done Les , you're in the top 10 ! )
sharonv Says: That JK could
sharonv Says: That JK could have made a a difference "“ that he chose not to in these times makes his crimes greater than any of Labours monumental mismanagement.
Ignoring politics and the economy for a moment....why would JK want to take the top job and then do nothing? I assume he is not a dull man and I assume he has ambition for something so what is it?
Frankly it's the question I am really struggling with as if I as JK I would rather be the most hated man in New Zealand's political history and go down in history as the person that finally put New Zealand on the right track than be the most popular man in New Zealand and be dismissed by history as irrelevant.
Unless there is some secret agenda that we are not aware of JK is going to fall from grace in a massive way as everyone wants real change and it's not coming. The king was naked no matter how many people said he had nice clothes. John Key had a very real mandate to change this country and the political currency (popularity) to do it. In the same way that Bush had the good will of the world after 9/11 and squandered it you may well see the same thing happen here at a local level.
Toosoon Tookuit Says: We have
Toosoon Tookuit Says:
We have to give it time and stop meddling with it, but then those poor banksters would not be making such ginormous profits! Can't have that now, can we?
Well capitalism works at one level and doesn't at another. What I want is socially responsible capitalism. 4 Aussie banks profits at 3.6 billion and 46 NZX top 50 companies total 2.8 billion is not socially responsible capitalism. At least not socially responsible for our economy. People intrinsically understand effort and reward and risk reward. They may not like it but they understand it. What they hate is unjustifiable exploitation and so do I.
Roger....you'll get lines and detention in a minute! Be a good boy and youll get an opportunity to understand yet another side to the arguement.
Bad boys, bad boys what
Bad boys, bad boys what you gona do, what you gona do when they come for you... this is a longer post than I have made it a rule to use but hey when the rules need to be changed, change em - a adaptive response?
Non-Internationalization of the Singapore Dollar
Arising from the use of the exchange rate as a benchmark policy instrument, the policy of non-internationalization of the Singapore dollar was adopted in the early 1980s as a rather limited form of capital control. Singapore has eradicated all exchange controls since 1978 in order to promote the development of its offshore financial markets. Hence, residents and non-residents are free to remit Singapore dollar funds in and out of Singapore and are also free to purchase or sell Singapore dollars in the foreign exchange market. Singapore's role as an international financial center has also led to the development of a large offshore banking sector, the Asian Dollar Market (ADM), whose assets are denominated in foreign currencies. There are no controls on capital flows between the ADM and the domestic banking system, so holders of Singapore dollars can easily convert their funds into foreign currency deposits and vice versa.
However, the absence of capital restrictions means that speculative attacks on the Singapore dollar could compromise the conduct of the exchange rate-centered monetary policy. The non-internationalization policy, which restricted the international use of the domestic currency, essentially protected the Singapore dollar from speculative attacks to facilitate the effective conduct of monetary policy. At the same time, the policy ensured that the growth of the Singapore dollar market was in line with the development of the economy. Under the non-internationalization policy, safeguards were put in place to prevent a buildup of offshore deposits of the currency that could be used by speculators to short the Singapore dollar. These included allowing bank credit in the Singapore dollar to be extended to non-residents only in cases where borrowing was meant for funding real economic activities. Additionally, restrictions were imposed on inter-bank Singapore dollar derivatives to limit access to liquidity in the onshore foreign exchange, currency, and interest rate swaps and options markets in order to hinder leveraging or hedging of Singapore dollar positions. These restrictions mainly took the form of consultative requirements to limit speculative activities in Singapore's financial markets, and did not seem to have impeded trade and capital mobility (Lee, 2001).11
Nevertheless, the restrictions became overly binding as the Singapore economy became more globalized and its financial industry matured. In the first place, increased demand by corporate players and financial institutions for the Singapore dollar and its derivatives for commercial transactions called for the liberalization of the policy. Secondly, the noninternationalization policy hampered the development of Singapore's capital markets, particularly the bond market. For instance, short-sales of securities and access to domestic currency credit lines are essential to deepen market liquidity (see Gobat, 2000). Hence, under the imperative to foster greater financial sector diversification the restrictions on the non-internationalization of the Singapore dollar were progressively relaxed. Four major reviews were undertaken after the Asian crisis, resulting in the lifting of restrictions to avert obstruction of market activities. Table 2 [ PDF 31.6KB | 1 pages ] below traces the evolution of the non-internationalization policy.
The current policy has only two core requirements, as stated in the revised MAS Notice 757 of 28 May 2004. First, financial institutions may not extend Singapore dollar credit facilities exceeding S$5 million to non-resident financial entities where they have reason to believe that the proceeds may be used for speculation against the Singapore dollar. Second, for a Singapore dollar loan to a non-resident financial entity exceeding S$5 million or for a Singapore dollar equity or bond issue by a non-resident entity that is used to fund overseas activity, the Singapore dollar proceeds must be swapped or converted into foreign currency before use outside Singapore. These restrictions do not apply to non-resident financial institutions and there is currently a large offshore market in Singapore dollars abroad. Nevertheless, the MAS deems the current policy useful to deter offshore speculators from accessing liquidity in Singapore's onshore foreign exchange swaps and money markets (MAS, 2002).
On the first restriction, there is clearly an element of judgment involved in determining whether a client intends to engage in speculative activities. In the words of the MAS, "Financial institutions are expected to institute appropriate internal controls and processes to comply with this restriction...[these] include [obtaining] written confirmation from the non-resident financial institution specifying the purpose of funding"¦ and [executing a] formal evaluation process of the client profile, which provides a clear basis for assessing that the client is unlikely to use the Singapore dollar proceeds for currency speculation" (MAS, 2006, p. 3). In view of the reputation the MAS has for toughness, the financial institutions are expected to err on the side of caution when implementing this policy. As for the second restriction, which has been in effect since 28 May 2004, non resident non-financial issuers of Singapore dollar bonds and equities are no longer required to swap their Singapore dollar proceeds into foreign currencies before remitting them abroad. The amendment to the policy relieves foreign issuers from incurring the additional cost of swapping, thereby removing an advantage in directly issuing foreign currency bonds. For non-resident financial institutions, however, the requirement is retained.
With the lifting of the various restrictions, there is no longer a non-internationalization policy per se. Rather, the policy has been reduced to a lending restriction and is now known as MAS' policy on lending Singapore dollars to non-resident financial institutions. Has the liberalization of the non-internationalization policy resulted in the Singapore dollar being at risk of speculative attacks, or has the policy outlived its purpose? The past restrictions by themselves are unlikely to have been the single most important factor in protecting the Singapore dollar against speculative attacks. Rather, it is the maintenance of both internal and external macroeconomic balance as well as the absence of balance sheet vulnerabilities that offers little incentive for speculators to wage attacks against the currency or to circumvent the restrictions for speculative purposes. Furthermore, the MAS places great emphasis on the prudential supervision of financial institutions, ensuring sound credit practices and a strong capital position.12 In addition to its strong banking system, Singapore continues to develop deep and liquid capital markets for the efficient intermediation of financial flows, thereby enhancing the resilience of its financial system to shocks.
Note - exchange rate centered monetary policy - I wish.
@ John Walley: Thanks for
@ John Walley: Thanks for posting such a detailed explanation of how the Singaporean monetary policy system works John. It has obviously met the test of time whilst being relaxed and adapted in the light of subsequent experience.
I too have been concerned to see how quickly/high the NZ$ has risen against the US due to our currency being such a very small cork on such a huge ocean of international "Hot Money".
If Bollard (or some other competent person in Govt.) had the requisite monetary controls available, this extreme volatility could be greatly filtered out, thus avoiding kneecapping our exporters during the crucial early stages of recovery.
From an avoidance of volatility perspective, Singapore's monetary policy makes a lot of sense, but we have to keep in mind that such a policy -- assuming it was successful in driving down the Kiwi $ -- would also hit everybody in the pockets due to increased petrol prices, and other imports becoming more expensive. So, it is your classic double-edged sword, probably giving rise to a considerable amount of inflation.
Having said that, I do believe that the interests of our exporters, which constitute the engine room of our economy, should come ahead of concerns about rising import prices.
@ Marshall I have to
@ Marshall
I have to say that Singapore maintains a steady hand and eye on their long term goals and ensure that there are no shortcuts taken.
head - nail - hit
John Key needs to step up and deliver us a 20+ year plan to move us into a low energy future based on a low cost energy infrastructure. Cheap oil dependance is rapidly moving into a bygone era.
New Zealand needs a "legend" not a three term trick - from what I have seen John Key has the humility but does he have the ambition to become one?
He needs to step up, lead the way and show us some balls on more than just economic policy.
@Grant K. You wrote "...As
@Grant K.
You wrote "...As part of my recent overseas trip, I spent a few days in Singapore. Certainly not enough to gain an in-depth understanding of their system as you have done, but it was explained to me what happens if you get sick in Singapore and don't have any money. Because there is no welfare, you are basically left to die....."
This is your HEAR SAY. When you were there, did you see anyone fallen sick and don't have any money... and was left to die ?????? Please tell us about it.
You also wrote ".....From an avoidance of volatility perspective, Singapore's monetary policy makes a lot of sense, but we have to keep in mind that such a policy "” assuming it was successful in driving down the Kiwi $ "” would also hit everybody in the pockets due to increased petrol prices, and other imports becoming more expensive....."
If the economy is not growing, tradeable sector is declining, redundancy continues, job loses etc..., would you still care about the lowering of Kiwi dollar hence higher petrol and imported goods ????? Do you understand how macroeconomic works and how the impact of high Kiwi dollar could possibly come around and haunt at you maybe direct or indirectly ?????
Les, After the brilliant speech
Les,
After the brilliant speech of Norman in front of the parliament your commented: "Not bad for a "Sheetey,"
Is that the way you advocating parliamentarians who are in support of NZMEA , then I must say very poor judgment and political behaviour.
Question Les: Why not have a fruitful debate on that speech ?
-
Obviously you didn't read and listen many of my articles and links, otherwise you would understand the correlation among them and you wouldn't make such comments (7th 8:49am). So I'm quite happy to enlighten you with some more in the near future.
http://thegovmonitor.com/world_news/asia/singapore-highlights-new-sustai...
Cheers Walter
Walter : since Les grovelled
Walter : since Les grovelled to teacher with his 8:49 a.m. spiel , and Johnny submitted his essay at 10:34 a.m. . , You and I are the two boys left at the back of the class . I think that teachie's topic is a complete load of arse ............ Got gummy bears , Walter . Wotcha Swiss speciality confections ? ( apart from the obvious , choccies )
Rogie, You and I are
Rogie,
You and I are the two boys left at the back of the class.
Yes, that is nothing new for me anyway - brillant mind, but not capable of working within the system - useless !
http://www.futurebytes.ch/swisstrends/das-grosste-schweizer-sackmesser-v...
..not only to cut your gummy bears.
W. Kunz : We are
W. Kunz : We are a good team : Me , useless mind , capable of working a " system " . You , brilliant mind , incapable of the system ! What are the traditional fruits and vege of Switzerland . We get late frosts in Loburn . Today I planted acorn squash , a sweet heirloom of the Cherokee tribe in US . Also US runner beans , " Shiny Fardenlosa ". What is in your garden, Walter ? I have a range of tomatoes , too , Yellow Pear / Oxheart / Brandywine Pink / Bloody Butcher , etc . Herbs of course : Bay , thyme , sage , rosemary , basil . Have you got the thyme , Walter ? Awesome stuff . Splendid sunny day . Planted some Israeli " Ha Ogen " melons in an old washing-machine drum , next to the glasshouse . Always like to try something new . You experiment a bit too ? Brilliant climate Kaikoura . My Uncle Eddie grew fabulous lemons . Buggered if we can down here .
Wow - some "Israeli melons"
Wow - some "Israeli melons" planted in an old washingmachine next to US runner beans - like that.
You ask:
What are the traditional fruits and vege of Switzerland ? - GM spuds, fondue and NZapples.
What is in your garden, Walter ? Mostly my wife and weeds and many other flowers.
You experiment a bit too ? Yes - growing "Meat- trees" and "Cheese - berries".
Roger, Walter - more from
Roger, Walter - more from the swot.
Russell's speech, sorry I just do not buy the grand narrative centrally planned approach. I know politicians and bureaucrats love them, when things work they claim responsibility when they fail they transfer blame with alacrity "“ you know success has many fathers but who stands for failure?
Every day I see enterprise winning when any sort of formal MBA type analysis says they should fail, every day I see enterprises in the tradeable sector struggling to work in a policy framework that has forsaken them. This is complex adaptive emergence in real life, for anyone who cares to look. Please don't mess with it, but please encourage more of it.
We need the right framework, the right policy that starts from the clear imperative that New Zealand MUST TRADE successfully with the world (remember the trade balance is maybe $3.5bNZ but the total annual current account balance is close to $16bNZ "“ now just have a think what that means) "“ we are all living on the kindness of strangers.
Anyone else have the shits?
To see a better way we need look no further that Australia and Singapore "“ for our futures sake we need to learn, do, and stop talking, researching, reporting.
Time is running out"¦.
Would have done more, earlier but her indoors insisted I sort the drive out and spray the weeds.
Hi Grant We have watched
Hi Grant
We have watched wealth transfers from the tradeable sector to the non traded sector for decades.
Simple arithmetic (I don't have to resort to partial differential equations to demonstrate this "“ sorry my suck up day) if we have a massive current account deficit to fix we need do or or both of the following:
"¢ Borrow less
"¢ Export more
That is it, not complicated is it?
Cheap imports (off a high dollar) and bugger all investment in more exports (high dollar) don't help.
So, sadly, the dollar must fall, prices must increase, margins on exports must not only increase but the 'powers that be' have yet to convince the people I talk to that risking more of their resources is worth the punt.
Until that happens we continue to slip slide away"¦
Bernard, you cheap old bugger
Bernard, you cheap old bugger there is something wrong with your free AJAX editor - I know some good developers who can sort this for you..
John, with comments: "Russell’s speech,
John, with comments: "Russell's speech, sorry I just do not buy the grand narrative centrally planned approach", you are evading the real issue.
The way you comment on R. Norman speech make it difficult to improve relationships between the Private Sector and Parliamentarians. Any such speeches from any politicians should be welcomed and considered as good examples by the NZMEA.
Your organisation should make this clear not only to other politicians, but also to the media.
I think comments "Not bad for a "Sheetey," are very destructive - a real shame.
Walter
GM spuds , Walter ?
GM spuds , Walter ? I thought they made cars . But I am guessing that grains , ( wheat / oats / barley ) are a staple of your diet . As a landlocked domicile of high altitude , what else is traditional in your cusine ? I'm guessing that breads / cheeses / wines & sausages feature highly . Along with freshwater fish ( pike / salmon /perch ) , and an array of fungi ( morel / saffron milk-cap / field agaric ) . How do you find our markets in NZ ? Be honest , I've travelled through Asia , and seen some incredible edible sights . Actually the Victorian Central Market in Adelaide SA & it's counterpart in Melbourne are as good as any . Knock the sox off anything in crummy old NZ !
@Grant K. You wrote “…As
@Grant K.
You wrote ""¦As part of my recent overseas trip, I spent a few days in Singapore. Certainly not enough to gain an in-depth understanding of their system as you have done, but it was explained to me what happens if you get sick in Singapore and don't have any money. Because there is no welfare, you are basically left to die"¦.."
This is your HEAR SAY. When you were there, did you see anyone fallen sick and don't have any money"¦ and was left to die ?????? Please tell us about it.
You also wrote ""¦..From an avoidance of volatility perspective, Singapore's monetary policy makes a lot of sense, but we have to keep in mind that such a policy "” assuming it was successful in driving down the Kiwi $ "” would also hit everybody in the pockets due to increased petrol prices, and other imports becoming more expensive"¦.."
If the economy is not growing, tradeable sector is declining, redundancy continues, job loses etc"¦, would you still care about the lowering of Kiwi dollar hence higher prices for petrol and imported goods ?????
Do you understand how macroeconomics work and how the impact of high Kiwi dollar could possibly come around and haunt at you maybe direct or indirectly ?????
Walter, you are probably not
Walter, you are probably not on our email list so you will not know the continuous dialogue I try to arrange for our members and our politicians. Send me your email address and I will make sure you are on our email circulation that details our meeting with politicians of all sorts.
I don't think I copped out, complex adaptive emergence is a valid alternative approach to the grand narrative centrally planned alternative?
There is a central theme "“ trust or command "“ I simply don't buy centralised command.
By the way I am an engineer who swallowed the technology fix as a kid - that is a bloody difficult paradigm t break eh?
But Roger - I do remember a simpler world when fishing for Perch on the canals of old blighty - then innocence fades damn it. Strange how one could be excited about 14 ounces"¦.
By the way Perch are
By the way Perch are not really fit to eat...
John, ..I'm lost for words
John,
..I'm lost for words - too fishy email me !
No John : I saw
No John : I saw Hugh Fearnly-Whittingstall poach one , and present it to guests of cultured palate , and they loved it . All in the cooking ( and not embarassing mine host on camera ) .
My last article for a
My last article for a while:
Considering many aspects of our struggling, unbalanced economy, but especially our massive account deficit, our foreign financial and infrastructural dependency I'm coming to the conclusion major changes in New Zealand have to be made soon.
It is not all about exports, but less imports means savings also. It is not about OECD ranking but sustainability. It is not for the BB only, but our children "“ it is for all of us - to make us in many senses wealthier as a nation.
Reading through this week articles I'm under the impression the situation isn't understood, because the government and the private sector still take "the luxury" to argue in stead of seeking urgently united strategy plans.
Introduction of new segments in our economy "Green manufacturing"
As more of a focus is being placed upon the necessity for greater environmental responsibility, citizens who implement a greener lifestyle are also demanding a greater level of environmental stewardship from companies. In addition, they are rewarding companies who implement green business solutions, such as green manufacturing, with their dollars.
Fortunately, many enterprising organizations are discovering that, through better planning and more efficient processes, corporate strategies with an eye toward environmental stewardship can often be more profitable. By combining best practices across enterprise asset management, product lifecycle management, and manufacturing planning, green manufacturing has become not only a more responsible way for many organizations to do business, but a more profitable way as well.
Website: http://www.nwma-wa.com/greenmanufacturing/
For the current situation this are ideal activities and we could enter a completely new area in our economy, providing full employment including research etc. and most importantly highly skilled jobs.
Walter
Read above: Of course one
Read above:
Of course one cannot compare with other countries, but dealing and studying the website and make the right judgments shows the enormous potential for New Zealand.
Walter
Maybe I lack the culture,
Maybe I lack the culture, or perhaps my cottage in the country was close to the wrong sort of water?
Walter - I can't find
Walter - I can't find the original blog comment where I said, "Not bad for a "Sheetey." referring to Russell Norman's vid speaking in support of manufacturing in parliament.
However, your interpretation, "I think comments "Not bad for a "Sheetey," are very destructive "“ a real shame." is incorrect. The fact is, and it's well known within MEA, the Greens and MEA have strong agreement on the important place of manufacturing, hi-tech, elaborates and indeed, in-firm production processes, within NZ's economy. When I first listened to Russell at an MEA event before the last election, his views were consistent with his predecessors and no surprise to us - given the agreement we have with the Greens on this aspect.
My comment wasn't destructive Walter, it was complimentary, smoko banter, being delivered one tradesman to another. I'm not a 'Sheetey' - clothe eared sods - I'm a 'Tractorhead' by trade - and enjoy my tinitus as much as any 'Sheetey' would enjoy theirs....
I'm surprised you've not taken up John's offer to be on the MEA mailing list and get to understand how much effort MEA puts into engaging with politicians. MEA is very able to, given it's apolitical and independent positioning:
http://www.interest.co.nz/ratesblog/index.php/2009/09/24/exchange-rate-r...
You did seem keen at one stage to engage with MEA, or rather me in particular, trying to contact me via the MEA website. The association staff did pass your message to me. Given certains aspects of debate we've had on this site susbsequently, I'm still content I did not respond to your invitation, sorry. If you are feeling any sense of rejection and subsequent anger about that please don't let it get you and end up taking it personally - life's too short.
Why not let John put you on the MEA mailing list, you've nothing to lose, except perhaps some aspects of strongly held views that don't fit with the reality of experience for many MEA members and productive enterprises in NZ.
Cheers, Les.
The problem is, Selwyn, that
The problem is, Selwyn, that no government believes or practices true capitalism, and even if there was one, human nature (greed!) would have the best of it.
As a child I dreamt of living in the "good ol' USA," and achieving the American Dream. I lived there for 25 years fulfilling my dream before emigrating to NZ, and when I fled the US it was obvious to me that the "American Dream" was a farce implanted in us by the propaganda machine serving the top 1 percent of the population in the US, whom without us immigrants, would not have what they like! It is not an even playing field, it is tilted in favor of the rich by politicians chasing the same dream. You see, it is the perfect swindle, one in which the swindlers get swindled, and unkowingly perpetuate the "status quo." Is it any wonder they go into politics!
When I arrived here in the early 90's, we had the remains of an egalitarian society quickly being eroded by the powers to be. Houses were afordable, butter was less than a dollar a pound, beef and fish were inexpensive and popular meals, and everyone drank Lion Red, at the pub, standing up! I Never understood that one, but I got used to it and learned to love it. Just like New Zealand...
However, in the 15 years I have lived here, there have been major changes, and most of them negative. I have seen the privileges of a free society curtailed in the name of a "free market" doctrine. Kinda like Dubya's abandonment of free market principles, to save the free market.
I remember the best apples in the world for free, as long as you had a nearby park with apple trees on it, or a close-by orchard with an honesty box! Then in the late 90's it was decided that we had too many apple trees and excess supply was bad for unit prices, bad for corporate profit, and a massive tree cull got underway. That's not capitalism, that's socialism for the rich.Today apples have trebled in price and one can not find a fresh apple in any store, they all have been kept refrigerated and gassed for preservation. It's horrible! Give it time, and nobody will remember what a fresh apple taste like. Maybe that's what they're after, an absolute monopoly! Capitalism?
I remember the best tasting pies at any dairy, and affordable "fish and chips" anywhere. Today, McDonalds, Burger Kings, and every fast food restaurant in the US have become ubiquitous in New Zealand, and are eliminating the competition by shear size, not quality! Hardly capitalistic!!
I could go on reminescing, but you get my point. Capitalism in its true form avails cheaper more abundant means of production and raises the standard of liiving for the whole of society, not just the elite. Bill Bonner, of The Daily Reckoning's fame, very aptly put it: "Give a man a shovel, and it will take him lots of hard work to move some dirt; give the same man a digger (capital!), and soon enough he will have moved a mountain! Capitalism works unfettered, just like nature economizes!
It is a natural process which when left to it's own devices works wonders, as oppossed to socialism which allways benefits the ones in control. It's human nature that's the problem, not capitalism! Specifically, the problem is we have become an individualistic society. We favor, and value more, the success of individuals over the success of the collective. Case in point is the teenager sexually assaulted by a "succesful" musician whose name could not be published on th judge's order for it would be detrimental to his "carreer" and future income. Hello! What about the girl's future, she is only sixteen and marred forever by this event, because she is not "successfull" yet. Or how about the incident a few years ago whilst the American Cup Reggatta was on, and this Californian millionaire got busted at the airport for importing marihuana to New Zealand? He was let off scott free because he was a millionaire and the publicity would have been detrimental for his carreer. Hello! How many New Zealanders are in jail today for crimes less severe, or at least serving periodic detention for marihuana charges and not being able to leave the country because of their felony conviction? I guess their life or carreers were not affected by their conviction in the judges' mind. Is it any wonder that our society is facing such discordant trends between rich and poor, and that the wealth gap is getting wider? Remember that tomorrows adults are todays children, and they willl lead us to wherever it is that we are going! Also remember that happy children grow up to be happy adults. We are happy because we grew up in a natural enviroment, a fair one, eating fruit directly from the tree, not wraped in plastic to give the impresion of cleanliness, and we took our resources directly from nature, not some corporate body who has hijacked everyones' birthright for their own profit. In a truly capitalistic society human energy, ingenuity, and time become the ultimate source of wealth, and everyone starts with the same amount at birth, a true egalitarian society! New Zealand has the best chance to provide such an enviroment due to our isolation, our abundant resources and relatively small population. We should not give this opportunity up.
It is always too soon to quit!!
Addendum: In the case of
Addendum: In the case of an "Honesty Box" being available, the apples were not for free for I am an honest person, but were extremely inexpensive and fresh when compared to todays' apples.
It was just a typo, although it sounded in need of correction!
John W : If memory
John W : If memory serves , before the perch is poached , you fill the cavity with a bouquet garni . Garlic , dill and such . I find dill quite suits most fish dishes . Rick Stein is onto it . Keep it simple , and be proud of being bald ....... I do feel better . Shame about Keith Floyd , he was a favourite . Always having " slurps ", and then raving at all and sundry . Who do you follow on the cooking channel , John ?
Walter : I hope you
Walter : I hope you hav'nt left us for awhile , as you said . Was enjoying so much learning about your homeland . A proud country , steeped in tradition , who achieved so much with so few resources . Including winning the Americas Cup , no mean achievement for a land-locked nation !
If we're going to follow
If we're going to follow Singapore's economic direction, there are some serious pitfalls we'll need to circumvent.
The following paper examines Singapore's growing income disparities:
Causes, Consequences, and Policy Options
http://tinyurl.com/yf7yfuf
A United Nations global study was recently conducted on the topic of 'income inequality' worldwide.
New Zealand came in at number 6 on the list. Singapore was second.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/economy/news/article.cfm?c_id=34&objectid=1060...
Selwyn - "The economic religion
Selwyn - "The economic religion we have swallowed that says once implemented leave it alone is nuts." I agree, and don't doubt there are those in positions of power and influence who feel the same way, However, part of being invloved in a cult is to risk being ex-communicated* if one challenges. Plus, political opponents are all too eager to play a change of mind as weakness and thence to their own ends.
* http://www.interest.co.nz/ratesblog/index.php/2009/11/06/opinion-why-tax...
Roger's comment... well true or not, who knows, who cares, in some ways, but one wonders just how 'career limiting' it can be for public service advisors or others in that kind of swim, to challenge the norm?
Anyway, adding to my earlier post, as for definitions of neo-lib, whatever, I couldn't care less, I think the lesson we can learn from the likes of Singapore is that they could have chosen another path similar to ours and many other nations, that is, something more aligned to neo.lib.ism - or whatever it's called... the unchallenged norm(?) however, they didn't for whatever reason. Sure, some of their economic polices might have been easier to implement given their social policy and type of government, BUT, the thing for us is to see what we could 'cherry pick' from them. Before going on it's worth stating that, whether we 'cherry pick' from them, Auz, the central planning model, neo.lib.ism, whatever - we are going to have to also pick the untaxed property/capital-gain bogie, in some way or other. As I stated above, I guess that's why we have rejected that wee cherry in the neo.lib suite of thinking - broader, flatter taxes and abandoning subsidies - noting that absence of effective asset/capital gain taxation is NZ's 'subsidy that got away'. Funny that...
So what would I cherry pick (adapt)out of the Singaporean approach to things - simply this, the importance of external price stability - because like it or not, like them we have an export trade imperative, that if we do not act on - we'll go bust. Does that mean we have to have a managed, pegged, soft-pegged NZD; an 'Interest Linked Savings Scheme', variable fuel excise, mortgage tax, variable GST - not necessarily IMO at present. We simply need to REBALANCE the PTA so that the domestic sector, which generates the majority of inflation the OCR mechanism attempts (woefully) to combat is throttled more effectively with a complementary tool that more precisely reduces said domestic inflation, without killing tradeables, because the MCI does such a grand job reducing (eventually) aggregate inflation - "grand job" - yeah right! Presently, I'd like to support the suggestion that the simplest way to achieve this, as part of the next incremental step in the correct direction, is by putting more emphasis on and formally varying liquidity ratios as a complement to the OCR. Imagine the MPS statements then,
"Given the surge of growth brought about by the successful implementation of the recent tax reforms inflationary prospects now warrant further tightening of monetary conditions. We will at this time leave the OCR at 1%, but will initially increase liquidity ratios by x%. Have a nice day."
How would we ALL think then? How would Japanese and Belgian housewives think? Just imagine - savers and exporters dancing in the streets, but importers, RE's, the banks ...... all quite happy too, but not like they used to be - how sad nevermind. Anyway, and the CAD - if it could dance it would, given it would have gotten so much lighter - it's self-esteem is so much better now given it contributes a lower risk premium that has helped bring the OCR down to a new lower long-run average. Plus, it knows it's less of a threat to our economic sovereignty.
Let's make CAD happy today I say.
Just gotta keep it simple, and pick that bogie, somehow....
Ambivalence (pride is going a
Ambivalence (pride is going a bit far) to baldness, slurps, the virtues of garlic and dill - fit topics for a Sunday afternoon...
Seriously no one is saying emulate Singapore or Australia but we should learn from them - in an economic sense they have a lot to teach us.
Just doing what we have done but harder is no solution. We are in the end game of change by our own volition, much longer as we are the kindness of strangers will evaporate and we will really be in for a time of wailing and gnashing of teeth.
Right you are , John
Right you are , John . The hawker bazaars of Singapore are a treasure trove of ingredients , and of food stalls . Even the market in Melbourne and the Central Market of Adelaide ( an old stomping ground ) are legendary for their produce . What they can teach us ! I am wailing and gnashing my teeth at the memory of them ........... Solice in a small bag of gummy bears . Ahhh , yummy gummy ......Hmmmmmmm.
John Walley, For some who
John Walley,
For some who prefer NO CHANGE to our current economic situation could cite endless reasons about why we should not adopt any policy from Singapore. It is just too easy to pick on some policies there and defend the NO CHANGE status here.
If you were to suggest that we could adopt certain part of the monetary policies from Singapore, someone could easier shift the attention away from your main subject and distract from your main thesis. That is likely the reason why we are in this SITUATION. Do you agree? Is that disappointing?
Selwyn, Your article is awesome
Selwyn,
Your article is awesome and has alot of substance too. However, I wonder how many would appreciate the strength of successful policies from other nations and adopt selectively here. Instead, some appear to be picking on things that aren't able to work here and possibly shift your subject of discussion away from your main theme. This could be the main obstacle for many things.
Indeed, John. We can learn
Indeed, John.
We can learn from their economic success but we can also learn how to avoid making their mistakes.
I seriously doubt anyone here is suggesting we don't need to change. It's the structure of that change that needs further debate.
A lot of the arguments being put forward for change today are merely failed rehashed policies from the past. (The old neo-liberal network)
We've been there, tried that, and they've failed.
Take the introduction of GST for example. It may have been good for some (cutting the top tax rate) but failed to benefit the overall majority. Living standards didn't increase, no net increase in jobs in the export sector. It even failed to reduce consumption so we increased it "“ but people merely borrowed more. Hence, here we are trying to increase it once again.
What concerns me is the vested fiscal carrot that tends to blind those that are doing the policy "cherry-picking".
Grandy- If adopting certain fiscal policy leads to widening disparity, its overall merit should be evaluated. But as we know all too well, vested short-term gain can often blind those deciding the path of change.
Selwyn and John Walley, I
Selwyn and John Walley,
I really appreciate that you have highlighted problems we are facing, and more importantly also put up suggestions on what could be done to address it.
It is always great to highlight problems followed with potential solutions. But, some who might just highlight problems without solution(s) is really a distraction. Do you agree?
John and Les rejected my
John and Les rejected my solution.
It's also interesting to note all this concern about currency stability yet we're willingly opening ourselves up to more volatility by entering into carbon trading.
Grandy - Failing to impartially
Grandy - Failing to impartially and robustly evaluate the full affect of economic policy deprives us of the opportunity to implement new policies while understanding enough to circumvent the pitfalls.
Chairman - remind me, what
Chairman - remind me, what was your "solution" that John and I rejected?
If you think where we
If you think where we are is really good, and you think that present trends can reasonably be expected to get better (greater wealth with good high paying jobs) "“ no need to do anything. But if this is not the case maybe we should do more than just try harder doing the same stuff.
Here I am not discussing solutions just the need or otherwise to start looking for them.
I think my position on both points is reasonably out there.
I see Singapore has a
I see Singapore has a land value tax.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Land_value_tax
Les - my tax, trade,
Les - my tax, trade, and investment solution.
Nevertheless, just to clarify, I do support investigating initiatives that will prevent currency speculation and help create stability.
@The Chairman, If you claimed
@The Chairman,
If you claimed that John and Les rejected your solutions, then what solutions of yours did they reject?
If you think that their suggestions/solutions are not appropriate, then why?
You pointed tax, trade and investment solution..., then explain in length what's all these, please show illustrations so that we know what you meant by terms ie. tax, trade, investment or what ???
You mentioned you do support investigating initiatives, then tell us what initiatives did you want to support and what you don't ?
Isn't this article already an initiative, isn't John's previous article also consider a form of initiative? What is yours initiative??? Please tell us about your initiative.
Chairman – remind me, what
Chairman "“ remind me, what was your "solution" that John and I rejected?
... the links to past threads would help, and how about answer Trudy's questions. I do recall debating with you on a few points, but think we reached either stalemate, or you couldn't provide sufficient reasoning and evidence to support your case further?? Or was it that you are a 'big-state' 'central planning' fundie and things ended up as they always do with such?
Anyway, the real problem is, we have a problem and government have been conveniently ignoring it since Nov 2008, and before then since 1999 - and all solutions of the non-tinkering type require that,
credit issuance, land and property investment takes some pain,
as they never had to in the past - assuming of course that we don't simply want to become a retirement village for wealthy immigrants who continue to displace (globalise?) NZ's kids and grand-kids.
Who and what benefits from that scenario?
Trudy, Grandy, Chairman, Les, John,
Trudy, Grandy, Chairman, Les, John, Toosoon Tookuit great comments. I perosanlly believe there is a huge initaiatve underway. People are ready for change and when that happens those that don't deliver it will be fried then fired.
The article above was designed to stimulate the debate further and nudge it in the right direction. I sing Singapore's praises but do I believe we could do better?....well yes I do but to disprove something you have to show that others, who have done things differently, have actually succeed. That's the key point of the entire debate isn't it.
We have not succeed and yet we have swallowed the entire neo-liberal pill and enacted more than most in this direction. Singapore did things very differently and now has more options than most and ranks No9 in GDP/Capita while we bump along at No 46. Again in 1965 we where No 11 and Singapore was No 42.
There is no level playing field, there is no set of rules that every country plays by and the hard reality is that we have to grow up and put in place a structure that allows us to play to our strengths instead of being played because of our weaknesses. We are seriously naive if we think we can tweak this or that and make any serious difference. A complete rebuild might be overstating it but we need more that a facelift model. John and Bill are looking at new grill and perhaps a set of mag wheels. Actually why am I surprised that's what we got with this government isn't it i.e. The 1999 facelift model!
I wonder if Gareth Morgan
I wonder if Gareth Morgan would stand next election. He seems to have the metal that is needed.
John Key's second year test - politics - national | Stuff.co.nz
John Key promised champagne as well as small beer. ... proposals the group has aired, one for a capital gains tax and another for a broad-based tax on land. ...
I'd much rather have a
I'd much rather have a Govt that does nothing to "solve" the crisis - that includes letting companies and people fail for bing stupid. I honesty hope that should we have a bank stumble, that the govt lets it go and does not step in and try to bail it out.
Liquidate it, sell the assets to other banks, and move on. Short, sharp and issue resolved. Chances of that actually happening - 0% Sadly we have become a nation of state dependants, very much like those long time criminals who reoffend just goo go back to jail, because they cant face life in the real world.
Can you honestly say that Obama has made any real change? Other than overturning the rule of law by usurping the bond holders of GM in prefference for the unions. Interesting that the 'greedy speculatiors' he maligned turned out to be municipal pension funds across the company who invested in the GM bonds because they were legally allowed protection as first recievers of assets should GM go broke.
Singapore is a theifdom in
Singapore is a theifdom in which the largest majority of its citizens are in peonage for the very same reasons in a majority of, so-called, sovereign nations in the global village, that reason being they to bow to the Debt Based Monetary System overseen by the privately owned central banking network and their locally recruited co-operatives within the nations upon which they prey.
The above posts sadden me, as it appears that all but a few think that they might be able to change something by saying to the powers that be, that we know what your up to, but we wont tell anyone if you give the prisoners a few concesions. These soughts of overtures of "keeping public confidence" in the system have been repeated over and over again, only to be scoffed at by the money monopolising elitists. I ask, is this the way you really think change can be evoked, or is it because you fear ridicule or being labelled a radical for attempting to tell the wider public the truth of something that is very, very hard to comprehend.
The only solution is envoking the Public Credit Facilities of nations, the only study has to be why some succeeded, Colonial Scrip, NZ Promissory Notes, Canadian Public Credit, NZ State Housing Scheme etc and why some failed, Lincoln's US Greenbacks, Zimbabwe etc? My studies lead me to believe that when the public credit issued never saw the money supply come close to exceeding available human or natural resources, by luck or design, no inflation occured, but when public credit was handed out "helicopter style" in a none productive manner, allowing money supply to exceed available resources, hyper inflation occured as the money funnelled to the few who paid inflated prices for what they desired, which removed those prices out of reach from those whom recieved less of the issued money.
Capital flow controls, Capital Adequacy Reqirement adjustments are all needed before and after the evoking of our Public Credit Facilities, but put in place before the latter they are only putting a bandaid on a bleeding jugular, put in place in conjunction with the Public Credit Facilties will see the patient stand a chance of full recovery as opposed to slowly but surely bleeding to death.
I put it to you that their has not been a Privately Owned Debt Based Monetary System that has not lept from crisis to crisis and ended up with an open theifdom with a majority of its citizens in peonage. And, I put it to you anytime the majority who have ended up owning less of the wealth are subsidising the few who have most of the wealth, this is the guts of Fascism, and the private debt based monetary system in its many changing forms throughout recorded human history has seen Fascism infiltrate and destroy any attempt of the learned behaviours of common decency over coming our self destructive animal instincts.
We are supposed to be the most intelligent species on the planet, but in ten thousand years since the age of reason, forgetting the technological advances, what can we really claim to have changed on a wide scale of our violent greedy nature? I would say a wide spread denouncing of the practice of canabalism would pretty much be it, but that in itself shows that wide spread changes in human behaviour are possible
in area's where canabalism was once "generally accepted" widespread practice.
Bad buggers regroup when good buggers procrastinate.
Iain - ok. John, Selwyn,
Iain - ok.
John, Selwyn, anyone else - "The only solution is envoking the Public Credit Facilities of nations, the only study has to be why some succeeded, Colonial Scrip, NZ Promissory Notes, Canadian Public Credit, NZ State Housing Scheme etc and why some failed, Lincoln's US Greenbacks, Zimbabwe etc?"
Given the suggested North Dakota type solution, pp13 of, NZMEA Submission Parliamentary Banking Inquiry, 31 August 2009, from here:
http://www.mea.org.nz/media/submissions.aspx
Stuff the incremental steps, why not push this harder?
Cheers, Les.
All good stuff folks, but
All good stuff folks, but time to get real.
No matter how many complementary tools and mechnisms RBNZ could have at it's disposal, what is required, more than new tools, is the WILL and FREEDOM to use them. I forget which thread, but last week I saw someone asking why RBNZ had been so slow in raising the OCR in 2005, when it was plainly obvious it should have been tightening more aggressively. (I think Tony Alexander has made this point in the past.) Then also someone asking why the exsisting liquidity ratio mechanism could not have been used to complement the OCR on the upswing of the last bubble.
You never know but maybe our central banks isn't as independent of political interference as we might like to think.
Think about it, who stood to gain from RBNZ's, apparent, poor performance back then?
Isn't it time we had a committee setting rates and minutes of the meetings fully disclosed?
If not, why not?
C'mon get real.
"disclosure" ...of committee minutes!!! haaarrrrhaahaahaa...not
"disclosure" ...of committee minutes!!! haaarrrrhaahaahaa...not a freaking chance in Noddyland Jacko. You had it right when you figured the RBNZ policy was just a phone call from the Beehive away, so why expect the puppet masters to let the peasants know what they plan to let the govt do? We live in a BS democracy where spin rules and the puppets on the 9th floor of the Beehive are jerked every which way by the Lords of Finance. Funniest of all are those in the Cabinet who actually believe they run the country.
@ Wally, "You had it
@ Wally, "You had it right when you figured the RBNZ policy was just a phone call from the Beehive away.." Dude, it's like balls on a dog, and sadly, I'm not figuring.
More heat than light here,
More heat than light here, I'm afraid. Singapore as a model, apart from being an island like us, is a hideously bad analogy. Dictatorship, related party holdings up the wazoo (and y'all thought NZ was terrible in that respect) and dependent on imported water (supply from Malaysia), food and energy...not something yer average punter will vote for.
The 'light' bit of the thread concerns the productivity and the attitudes which drive that, which are the real factor in short supply.
The damage in NZ is that there are so many perverse incentives - from WFF, ACC, high EMTR's and other welfare traps, and the crazy 'four well-beings' at the TLA level, that the only 'ism' which actually motivates folk is Welfarism or Other people's Money-ism. Arguably, neo-whatever has never bin tried.
That set of attitudes ain't a recipe for growth, a productive economy or anything particularly desirable.
And puhleeze, people, there ain't going to be any 'revolts'. Going Galt or going bush is much more likely, and it will be a T S Elliot slide - whimpers, not bangs.
But we have a great future - self-sufficient in food, energy (via coal and Fischer-Tropsch), minerals etc - as long as our numerous creditors don't arrive bearing arms and demanding cash, first-borns or assets. Any two.
Then, all bets are off.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/technology/news/article.cfm?c_id=5&
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/technology/news/article.cfm?c_id=5&objectid=10...
Such projects should be 100% supported not only by the government but also by the wider private sector and media. Central planning should assist companies involved in "Green energy" and create conditions, so the manufacturing sector and others can work hand in hand for the "Green energy" sector.
In today's competitive world and recession, unfortunately most economic initiative will fail (patchwork) without central planning. Our Industries have to work together and make us less depended from "foreign" products/ knowledge (Imports). = saves MILILIONS !
This are ideal, strong activities for our country and we could enter a completely new area in our economy - more independence, providing full employment including research etc. and most importantly highly skilled jobs.
Walter
Good on them Walter -
Good on them Walter - they are exhibiting 'winning behaviours' - all that is required is a taxation/investment regime to AMPLIFY those efforts and ACCELERATE progress - and I, along with my colleagues in NZMEA and PEC will keep battling on for the required changes so that people like Chris and Nick can keep on doing the good stuff they are doing - if the market gives sufficient pull and picks them as winners that is...
Can you or any expert officials from 'central planning' tell me if they will be winners?
How would you and those officials complete the necessary D&D and make the choice to invest - given it was your skin in the game, not simply funds comprised of 'other people's money' in the form of grants - that neither you or the officials from 'central planning' have responsibility for losing?
Suppose you and those expert officials from 'central planning' were able to gain a 15% tax credit as third funders of private sector R&D and patent development - would that help get some skin in the game?
If your'e interested in investing in these projects I'm sure I could facilitate contact if you like? Sorry no 15% tax credit for third party funders at present, nevermind, and property investment is preferable in terms of risk/return - but that's not bothering Chris and Nick - good on em' - I hope they crack it.
Shame we can't get more people doing what they are doing, I wonder how we could do that?
Cheers, Les.
Waymad Says: November 9th, 2009
Waymad Says:
November 9th, 2009 at 10:09 am
More heat than light here, I'm afraid. Singapore as a model, apart from being an island like us, is a hideously bad analogy. Dictatorship, related party holdings up the wazoo (and y'all thought NZ was terrible in that respect) and dependent on imported water (supply from Malaysia), food and energy"¦not something yer average punter will vote for.
Just that they are No 9 in GDP / capita and we are No 42! I am not promoting Singapore as "the solution" it is however living proof that we don't have "the solution" today either. So yeah perhaps a little heat around the edges but the light is in the numbers which cannot be denied. Given your analogy of Singapore (not one I share by the way) it actually makes the point even stronger. They should be No 42 in GDP / capita not us.
Your arguments sound oh to familiar Waymad. Let's just keep doing what we have always done and it will be okay. Farming can't double but our need for tax revenue and foreign exchange will. Your answer to that is?
Yeah waymad, you and The
Yeah waymad, you and The Chairman should form something called the 'Negative Appreciation Foundation' (NAF). How about some good old positive appreciation, what can you guys list?
Les, again "NZMEA moaning" -
Les, again "NZMEA moaning" - nothing new !
What about attending or listen (invitations) to conferences with a number of NZ politicians, so they can educate them selves and learn to understand how important new directions in our economy are ?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=31NDaGgK584&feature=channel
What I hear is they go in holiday a lot - so it should be easy to make them feel guilty and engage them for actions, which help to decrease our account deficit.
Walter
Walter - let's not loop
Walter - let's not loop the loop:
http://www.interest.co.nz/ratesblog/index.php/2009/11/06/opinion-how-neo...
"life's too short."
Cheers, Les.
That’s it from me. Reading
That's it from me.
Reading bloggers today again "“ it is all about how to keep NZ noses above the waterline.
There are hardly any new, positive elements for a turn around in our struggling, unbalanced economy- a culture change.
There are far too many people here just sitting on donkeys with calculators in their hands looking for direction.
Brains and calculators do not solve our problems, only "Brains & Shovels" do.
You all have a good day.
Walter
PS > Les, I'm on the mailing list.
Trudy - I fully support
Trudy - I fully support scanning the globe evaluating policy to see what's effective and can be integrated. I also believe in robust debate.
What concerns me is the vested fiscal carrot that tends to blind those that are doing the policy "cherry picking". Neo-liberals will solely fixate on Singapore's high GDP (the fiscal carrot) and will be blind to the disparity on the flipside, thus failing to comprehend how implement the economic policies while circumventing the pitfalls.
The current crisis presents an opportunity for change. It has enabled us to clearly identify the problems and the mistakes of the past.
Since the mid eighties we've gone through massive neo-liberal economic reform.
We reduced the size of government, deregulated, introduced GST and have massively dropped the top-end tax rate. However, the problems the policies were meant to address have only gotten worse.
Moreover, despite the benefits of the recent worldwide boom, living standards failed to increase and New Zealand hasn't created a single net extra job in the export sector in the past decade. Furthermore, there hasn't been a trade surplus since the seventies.
http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/keygraphs/Fig6.html
We've wasted time and money opening and closing and reopening ACC, selling and buying back the Railways (now looking at PPP), Air New Zealand etc...
Corporatisation of our SOEs weakened their overall effectiveness and has merely made it easier for the following privatisation. It has seen the government benefit off the assets we all own while people have resorted to borrowing to maintain the governments return. Effectively, acting like a tax becoming a roadblock to our production led recovery.
Hence, we need to return back to the public service model. Get our assets working for us and not against us.
We've pandered to the demands of the neo-liberal private sector for decades, yet they've failed to deliver the promised prosperity. Instead, we got disparity and became further indebted.
The old neo-liberal network is still alive and well and is also looking at this crisis as an opportunity. However, they are not looking to change their neo-liberal ideology, no, they've got unfinished business and plan to manipulate (spin-doctors) and use the current momentum for change to ensure they get their way.
I'm sure many here have also recognised the softening up approach that the spin-doctors have been putting into place.
Private interest seldom aligns with the overall national interest. Therefore, we shouldn't be totally relying on private interests to pull us through the recovery.
The government is borrowing at a rate of a billion dollars a month therefore need to be far more proactive in generating a return.
Government market participation is what is needed and comes with many benefits. (My tax, trade and investment solution.)
Unlike the private sector, the government has the flexibility to work under the public service model here at home. Reducing inflationary pressures while also increasing our international competitiveness, allowing the productive sector to capitalise off the benefit while the government still retains the ability to maximise gains offshore. It's a win-win.
Government involvement in new export ventures (mining, bulk water exports, aquaculture, etc...) while also giving 'mum and dad' investors an opportunity to get onboard will improve investor confidence providing healthy market place competition which will increase accessibility to local capital, giving not only the government but also 'mum and dad' investors the opportunity to generate an offshore return.
This offshore return will broaden and increase the government's revenue streams while sustainably offsetting tax cuts here at home. The internationally offset tax cuts will further improve our international competitiveness while the newly generated offshore return will improve our balance of payments. Moreover, Government involvement in new export ventures will act as an economic stimulus, creating new jobs etc... becoming another win-win.
If done correctly, reform isn't as hard on the people as some claim it to be. In fact, if it is overly hard on the people it's often a sign that what's being implemented is wrong or hasn't been properly thought through.
But just like in the US, the neo-liberals here will do there upmost to stifle or manipulate the momentum for change.
Actually Walter , I'd given
Actually Walter , I'd given up on this thread , the whole " Neo-Liberal " thing seems rather daft . I'd rather learn more about your splendid home-land . A study of Switzerland would be positively illuminating , compared to this limp topic . Cheers man , Rogie .
Rogie: Yes - just one
Rogie:
Yes - just one very impressive example - listen now !
http://www.filestube.com/8eef449a995b227e03e9/details.html
Roger - The Swiss electoral
Roger - The Swiss electoral system has merit and should be further investigated. Perhaps we could incorporate some of the better features of their system to help improve ours
The Chairman said: We reduced
The Chairman said:
We reduced the size of government, deregulated, introduced GST and have massively dropped the top-end tax rate. However, the problems the policies were meant to address have only gotten worse.
Chairman it's so true. The facts are there in black and white ....(well a lot of red ink as well) about how the reforms have not served us well.
Roger your superior intellect and knowledge base could be used more productively than slamming everything that doesn't align with your specific version of the truth. No one owns the truth Roger and we can all learn from each other. You have a lot to offer in many debates but your negativity often get's in front of the issues and people stop listening. There is no single cause of these problems and the interrelationships and dependencies are very complicated. For me you or anyone else to say that a single issue has caused New Zealand's demise is a big call. The useless article above was designed to make people consider the issues and our position and to understand that we have reached a point where any reasonable person can say "hey it's not working" is there another way.
Well there are many and we can find them. Personally Australia's tax system and Singapore's monetary policy is a great place to start.
The chairman, Exactly did you
The chairman,
Exactly did you listen (impressive example) above what one of the "Bundesrat" (Minister) just said a few days ago to the greedy Bankers.
Selwyn, Yes - good idea
Selwyn,
Yes - good idea some kind of a "Microwaved Ovencooked Pizza" made in Sigoastural.
Selwyn , my " superior
Selwyn , my " superior intellect and knowledge base " ? Kate was right , why be so patronizing ? However you are correct that I am not entering into the spirit of your article . Sorry . I shall return to the vinegar factory , and get pickled . Cheers !
( Walter : After that little yodelling link , I shall refrain from mentioning the subject again...........ever ! )
Watch for more on Singapore
Watch for more on Singapore from me this week.
Rogie, Ohh - most politicians
Rogie,
Ohh - most politicians are all the same making lots of "Sound Noises" and for the public they are "Stars in their eyes".
No, no you are right Switzerland would be a great model country without the greedy, too powerful banking system.
Selwyn,
I like the "100% Pure NZ Made" - solution.
Rogers another unintended consequence.
Rogers another unintended consequence.
John, Do you know if
John,
Do you know if any of our politician is in Singapore for the APEC summit this week?
The Chairman 1:51pm, Good article
The Chairman 1:51pm,
Good article - I most of the time agree what you are saying.
Sadly we have to learn the free market doesn't work good enough on it's own in the current climate.
Yes, one can only hope central/ local governments are assisting the private sector, obviously strongly demanded from different direction.
So why doesn't it happening is the question ?
Rogernomics 1984. A few changes
Rogernomics 1984. A few changes since.
My only question is: "Ain't 25 years enough?"
The Chairman - time for
The Chairman - time for some cherry picking from the 'central planning' camp. Where we have had the neo-lib privatisation of public services and it's not worked because of a sparse market, let's stop kidding ourselves and re-nationalise and secure our assets rather than see them flogged off. However, as the adage goes, "when the tools of productivity are in the hands of the state, productivity stalls", my concerns and an idea here:
http://www.interest.co.nz/ratesblog/index.php/2009/05/08/opinion-why-pri...
We are pissed off being ripped off for power, right?
In terms of providing internal services to the public, if a market is so sparse it gravitates towards monopoly, let's stop kidding ourselves and re-nationalise.
Where business and a market can function, then as a shareholder, participant, government should stay OUT and simply provide a pluralistic framework of lowest intervention for efficient products and service provision to emerge, so your ideas about having government involved in exporting busineses concerns me, (no, scares me) because the global market is not so sparse that government need do anything more than provide said frameworks to allow - and you know the rest - to emerge - with the market picking the winners, not government - because in such scenarios 'picking winners' by officials from the Politburo's 'central planning' unit - usually ends in a stuff up. So in regard to, "Government involvement in new export ventures (mining, bulk water exports, aquaculture, etc"¦)" same questions I asked Walter here:
http://www.interest.co.nz/ratesblog/index.php/2009/11/06/opinion-how-neo...
I've already said what I'd cherry-pick from the Singaporean approach, so let's have pick from the neo.lib side of things. I'd pick, smaller state involvement - but that doesn't mean crucify welfare, it just means focus it better - but goodbye WFF. It would mean however a good few non-welfare, non-core service departments getting pruned, even culled and in some cases privatised, eg.NZTE and FRST - let's see if they can deliver as well as market particpants they've displaced - and especially if they were not able to go throwing grants around, because in-firm reinvestment is dealt with via the tax system. A neo.lib like tax system that would see NO subsidy to land and property investment, and be broader, flatter and most of all, provide LOWER paye and corp taxes for ALL of us.
Oh and a wee cherry from the 'complex adaptive' approach - pluralistic tax crediting of the 'winning behaviours' associated with ALL productive enterprises, not just the ones 'central planning' picked. So not so much for a need for 'central planning' department Chairman, but there'd probably be plenty of jobs in The Green Light Infantry.
Stand to, stand to.
One word which describes the
One word which describes the attitude of the NZMEA "“ don't move from your position - Stubbornness.
No wonder they are struggling for changes.
Walter
Trudy take a look at:
Trudy take a look at:
http://www.apec2009.sg/index.php?searchword=new+zealand&ordering=&search...
Think you will see who was/is doing what to who - mostly well meaning talkfest.
At least two things were missed in the 80s special partnerships that became LAQCs and CGT - those two misses have the capacity to distort the economy with the consequences that can be seen by all.
Selwyn you point us to
Selwyn you point us to this:
"Just that they are No 9 in GDP / capita and we are No 42!"
Even Don Brash has admitted to me that GDP is recognised by many as nowhere near a perfect system with which to directly measure prosperity between nations.
If you have a look at the nations with high gdp per capita, you will in most cases find the nations with the highest net debt levels. GDP only measures economic activity without any consideration for equal opportunity to wealth.
Joseph Stiglitz has recently pushed for change:
"There's no single number that can capture anything as complex as our society," Stiglitz told AFP in an interview to launch the report.
"So what we argue for is the need for an array of carefully-chosen numbers, with a better understanding of the role of each of those numbers."
Currently, growth is measured as a percentage increase or decrease in Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which is a measure of the value of goods and services generated in a country and has long been seen by many as a crude benchmark.
As an example of how GDP could be misleading as a quality of life index, the report said an increase in fuel consumption would boost growth figures even if it only reflected more unproductive traffic jams and pollution.
"GDP was originally created as a measure of economic activity but has increasingly become used as a measure of societal well-being. It wasn't designed for that and it doesn't measure that," Stiglitz said.
http://www.france24.com/en/20090914-france-advocates-new-ways-measure-gr...
The trouble is that under the current neo-conservative privately owned, unfettered free-market, debt based monetary system seen as "generally accepted worldwide best practice", nothing can be done without the profit motive and no public infrastructure built without incurring crippling usurous levels of public debt.
This was made clear in 1935 election by Michael Joseph Savage as Labour vigourously campaigned for reform of the monetary system:
"Labour proposed a money system which would equate credit with the goods produced. The ideal was that the people should be able to utilise their own credit system and complete public works without incurring public debt."
I put it to you a concerted effort at reintroducing Labour grassroots to there founding ideals of reinstating a debt free public credit system might well be the only shot this nation has in the time remaining to regain economic independence for as many of its citizens as possible. Their founding ideals are as much needed today as they were then for the very same reasons.
The above MJS quote and a great article containing details of one of NZs greatest patriots John A Lee who was at the forefront of the last time NZ evoked its Public Credit Facilities to start our state housing project in 1936 with public credit borrowed fron noone, owed to noone. Lee left Labour when they backed down to the threat of sanctions made by the central bankers out of London in 1939. Labour has remained an infiltrated version of its original self since that day to this.
Read article on page 13 of volume 52 of Guardian Political Review
http://issuu.com/solutionsonline/docs/guardian52?mode=embed&layout=http%...
further irrefutable evidence from the horses mouths here:
http://publiccreditorbust.blog.com/2008/07/28/labours-original-ideals-we...
http://publiccreditorbust.blog.com/2009/10/05/excerpts-from-walter-nash-...
Les – You’re full of
Les "“ You're full of contradictions.
Have you forgotten our discussion on privatising water? The very same principle applies.
Multinational control is far more detrimental than Government, yet you're willing to let them own and control our revenue generating assets (mining, bulk water exports, aquaculture, etc...)?
Reducing the size of Government quickly leads to multinationals taking control - i.e. Government reduces its stake in ACC and primarily foreign owned insurance companies quickly move in (sending more of our much needed capital offshore)
Ponder this:
Is opening the economy, privatising and selling the nations revenue generating assets or taking on private risk while also reducing the size of government (public control) really in the long-term national interest?
Seriously, isn't that just repeating the same old failed neo-liberal ideology of the past?
Sadly, the above is all part of our current recovery plan. And that is the ideology that needs to change.
That ultimate objective is not to reduce the size of government "“ it's to see it become self-funded and to have it working for us "“ not against us.
Ultimately, it's the international market place that determines winners - not Government.
The scenario I described is about the Government (who are far better placed, resources etc...) pulling its own weight.
The Government is taking on a lot of debt and therefore can't totally rely on the private sector to pay it off. If there is one thing we should have all learnt by now, the interest of the private sector seldom aligns with the overall national interest. As explained above, looking after the national interest totally benefits the private sector. Sadly, the same can't be said about private interests.
In regards to Singapore, you're missing a vital point. It's not just the lack of welfare; it's the dangerously increasing number of working poor.
Do you know where increasing disparity and marginalisation of a growing number of the public leads to? I was surprised to see Mark H get it right the other day. New Zealand is moving away from nanny state and moving towards a police state. That's what you should be afraid of.
What do you know about disaster capitalism? Have you read the Shock Doctrine?
Police states are needed to enforce the full neo-liberal economic package.
Walter - reflecting on our
Walter - reflecting on our debate I have to say, just for the record, I've nothing against the idea of 'Green Light Industry'. In fact I don't care what colour or weight an industry has. The issue is, how to make such things happen and in trying to explain my thinking on that, I don't doubt my communication could have been more efficient and effective. However, I also am quite convinced that experience communicates more efficiently and effectively and it is experience that results in NZMEA holding the position it does and it is the main reason I support that position. I think it is the difference, but more importantly, the lack of experience, that is also one major reason certain people, institutions and politicians of various shades find the NZMEA position incongruent - notwithstanding agendas that are aimed at maintaining a no-change status quo.
I think this might be a convenient and gentle point to terminate our debate and simply agree to disagree, pending a change of experience. In that regard I await to be pleasantly surprised by a government institution ridden with the biases that have been widely discussed on these blogs, and the not so obvious benefits of either the 'central planning' approach or NZ's amusing interpretation of the neo.lib approach. I say amusing because I have been more so as I see people giving strong support for certain aspects, for example massive reduction of state and subsidies - but I see the same folk baulk, scuttle and run when we discuss how we might improve our taxation system based on their favoured economic cult's principle of broaden, flattening and lowering taxes. In fact if it weren't so damaging to the nation's future prospects it'd be bluming hilarious.
Here's to good experiences Walter, cheers, Les.
Chairman - my initial response
Chairman - my initial response to the charge of "full of contradictions" - well I guess it might seem like that that when I've taken the view that I do not choose a strict dogmatic adherence to any of the 'orthordox' approaches, choosing instead to 'cherry pick' what is pragmatic and useful in our context of here and now, and where a suitable direction appears to be emerging - in other words using some judgement, rather than lazily relying on a particular dogma. Albeit I reserve the right to change and adapt in light of new information, my changing intelligence and humility. (For the better I hope!)
However, to be honest, no I don't recall us having a discussion on water privatisation, so enlighten me, when and where was that? Looking at your questions it almost seems they are meant for someone else? For instance, "Is opening the economy, privatising and selling the nations revenue generating assets or taking on private risk while also reducing the size of government (public control) really in the long-term national interest?" sounds like the kind of thing you might want to ask Rodney Hide or a dyed in the wool neo.libber. So get back out of the deep-end - that was the splash I heard as you jumped in wasn't it? - and have a look at my previous comment addressed to you about my opinions on trying to discriminate between what kinds of things should and should not be privatised/nationalised. Then you tell me, what do you think I think about water? Never add any to a single malt, but beyond that I mean.
Re. "In regards to Singapore, you're missing a vital point. It's not just the lack of welfare; it's the dangerously increasing number of working poor." So? So what? So what, really so what? Who says WE have to have that outcome? Who says WE have to turn full-blown Singaporean? Are we not saying, lets look at the apparent benefits that do seem to arise from their kind of approach, 'cheery pick' this and that, and fit to our context? See my earlier comments:
http://www.interest.co.nz/ratesblog/index.php/2009/11/06/opinion-how-neo...
http://www.interest.co.nz/ratesblog/index.php/2009/11/06/opinion-how-neo...
Would you like a towel?
Cheers, Les.
As Les has several times
As Les has several times pointed out the nation, the economy, the society operates as a complex adaptive system so we should expect that something we do now may need change tomorrow etc.
A classic example is the post office and telecoms in this country. Can you all remeber the days when the post office owned the telephone system and the truly awful waste in labour that happened when they installed phone systems in new homes and generally ran the thing. As far as the public is concerned it gets far better service and a better bang for its buck now that it's privately owned. However if the state hadn't started it up there would have been no-one crazy enough to have run the 'phone system as a private enterprise in NZ in the '50s. Where is rail on the cycle?
Then there is the consideration that because power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely we should make sure that things our very lives depend on like water, sewage disposal and perhaps power distribution even, never fall into the hands of anyone with simply a profit motive. Inevitably they will rort the taxpayer and maybe eventually allow it to fall into ruin like the big banks in USA have right now.
So we must all be fearful of anyone with a fixed philosophy about what is best for us because as Mr Paulson found out there are times when the philosophy just has to be abandoned.
The crazy comment above about the NZMEA wanting to not change from its position misses the point. What the MEA is saying is that in this point in the cycle the economic policy settings will not deliver wealth for New Zealand. The nation needs wealth created from innovation and effort into new wealth creating activity. All the policy settings are stacked against that happening. High dollar, tax disincentive to invest in capital plant for improved output, tax disincentive to invest in intellectual property, and at the same time tax incentive to invest in non wealth creating assets like property and tax incentive to invest in domestic activity that is actually just churn in the movement of goods and services while the trading part of the economy needs export activity.
The NZMEA wouldn't be promoting this line if it was the CHINAMEA. It would be advocating higher wages for trades people and general workers so that they could buy more domestically and thus becaome less reliant on the USA for sales. Different economys need different stuff.
Where we are is plain for all to see. Our baby boom generation has fed itself from the activities of the previous two generations and now it has been so used to living that way it needs to feed off the income of the 'Y' and 'Z' generations. It has no other choice because we can't get the standard of living we want from our present levels of profit earned from our exports. Either the governmant acts to reduce the flow of milk through the feeding bottle now, or the world will do it to us later by turning the tap right off.
Selwyn's overall message is right but I think he fell into the trap of trying to argue about philosophy to illustrate it when actually he normally just talks common sense and that's a lot more understandable and difficult to argue against.
Brian W - thank you,
Brian W - thank you, You can be in my 'Top ten at 10'. It's sounds like you might have bit of experience of the real world, maybe even some manufacturing and exporting experience? If so you might be interested in knowing a little more about the NZMEA policy position. It's quite possible you will find an empathy with your style of thinking and experience in the NZMEA governance, which is listed here:
http://www.mea.org.nz/documents/672-document.pdf
I'm pointing this out, for the benefit of others mainly, as it is experience that is foundational to NZMEA's policy position - not dogma of left, right, centre, central planning, neo.lib'ism - or whatever - just experience of what works in the kinds of businesses represented in that list. I think you'll agree it's good to see some appropriate experience deriving the NZMEA policy position.
Cheers, Les.
Brian W makes the point
Brian W makes the point
"A classic example is the post office and telecoms in this country. Can you all remeber the days when the post office owned the telephone system and the truly awful waste in labour that happened when they installed phone systems in new homes and generally ran the thing. As far as the public is concerned it gets far better service and a better bang for its buck now that it's privately owned. However if the state hadn't started it up there would have been no-one crazy enough to have run the "˜phone system as a private enterprise in NZ in the '50s. Where is rail on the cycle?"
And I can recall that the Government of the day put millions into the telephone system in order to make it saleable. Then the buyers had the advantage of huge technological advances in telecommunications to follow on immediately. So did Telecom really do any better than the PO could have done? Who knows?
Compare to the Railways which had the similar asset rejuvenation from Government largesse to make that saleable. What happened there? We all know how we got ripped off in both cases.
Nuff said.
Brian W says: Then there
Brian W says: Then there is the consideration that because power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely we should make sure that things our very lives depend on like water, sewage disposal and perhaps power distribution even, never fall into the hands of anyone with simply a profit motive. Inevitably they will rort the taxpayer and maybe eventually allow it to fall into ruin like the big banks in USA have right now.
Brian "stage and age investment and ownership" and "adapting to our economic environment" are the absolute opposites of what the economic academics want us to believe. Chisel it it stone and walk away.
I think you need to add to your list Ports, Airports, Communications Infrastructure and yes Banks. I think the criteria is actually easy, if it looks like, smells like and behaves like a monopolistic asset then don't allow it into private hands. There is plenty of room for the market forces to play out their efficiency game but not in monopolies and duopolies. They become cash cows at the expense of the nation they are suppose to serve. It's not their fault as these are the rules of capitalism, gain an advantage and milk it for all its worth. That's okay but not on critical infrastructure that holds up the wealth creation potential of a nation.
Logical Dave if you take
Logical Dave if you take the power cos today and say as a nation we have power generation as a strategic competitive advantage. We don't use that as we have re-priced our cost of electricity to the commercial cost of replacement of the assets that created them. Good neo-liberal stuff right?
Now to hell with the tax payers of old that slugged it out to build and pay for these infrastructure assets to have to pay again for the same thing even though its still the same original asset.
Well all that's bad enough but actually its just another form of taxation and the money stays in New Zealand so I can live with it. Now allow these power cos (in total) to be in private hands or worse foreign control and we have not only lost a strategic competitive advantage we have given over that advantage to an economic competitor to milk our economy. Just not smart if you are a shareholder of New Zealand
Couldn't agree more Selwyn.
Couldn't agree more Selwyn.
I’m more sceptical what those
I'm more sceptical what those people involved understand of the term "Increasing productivity".
- Building more roads (Infrastructure) with machinery imported -.
- Extending Public transport with rolling stock imported -.
- Improving Power grid/ supply with equipment imported -.
- Improving education system with lecturer's /products/ etc. imported -.
- etc. -
Ha -Billions of $ are leaving the country.
http://www.interest.co.nz/ratesblog/index.php/2009/08/19/2025-productivi...
Walter
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Sorry about that. The folly
Sorry about that.
The folly of rewarding A and expecting B has long since been discussed in management theory. Incentive alignment in complex adaptive systems is the only way to aim at better outcomes, or each agent (person, firm, supply chain) seeks to optimise their bit of the system.
Sadly, the efficient bits, without incentive alignment, do not sum to an efficient system. Read Goldratt on Theory of Constraints to see where that came from.
So if we want growth we need incentive alignment aimed at growth.
If we prefer debt dissemination and wealth aggregation, and repressed growth as a result, we simply leave things as they are. Look at the differential growth rates between Singapore and NZ to give some truth to this statement.
We need to work out how to incentivise growth driving behaviours. Get an indication here:
http://www.mea.org.nz/documents/479-horses_for_courses_fixing_the_growth...
Why are we so export
Why are we so export dogma driven and cant just promote the balance of wealth and dignity from within our borders with exports being the cream, not life or death of us all, because we rent our money supply from external sources at usurous rates of compounding interest, fraudulent external sources at that. If that does not change, nothing will people, we will just keeping pissing into the wind.