We've not seen the bottom yet folks. Dont be fooled by recent gains, economic conditions are clearly set to worsen towards the end of the year and the housing market will falter again. We have seen a mild but noticable dead cat bounce. There's further to go yet on the way back down...

well anyone looking to buy, can now get a bakers dozen, that little bit of an extra bonus, the cherry on top - although, when everyone says don't be fooled, well don't be fooled by any buyers frenzy either, always do your due diligence and then you will be okay (as long as you understand due diligence)

furthermore, if any unfortunates out there from the over excited easy street money for nothing speculators (i myself am a property investor - different kettle of fish), to the people losing their home because it was security on their now failing business REMEMBER THIS that if you get stuck in the trap, with the bank selling your home on your behalf for whatever they want for it, you can sell it privately SAVING on commissions from RE Agents, and sell it for more than the bank requires, therefore leaving you with some change at the end of the ordeal or less debt to repay (that's right, any short fall from the sale will become a your private debt to bank - and no-one wants that....)

you can sell it right up until just before the bank auctions it or sells it to their brother in law for next to nothing...

Anyone wanting to buy, just don't get sucked in, but on the other hand, a bird in the bush is worth to in the hand.... if it works for you, buy it, or at least use these times as a time to scrub up on your local knowledge so you can pounce on the right deal.

AND these are mostly not homes for sale (unless guarantors to something that has fallen over) so do not be put off from buying a HOME....

Bernard - the head of Terralink says that mortgagee sales are now actually getting into the general population - ie he disagrees with your view that its still just investors. This from yesterdays stuff.co.nz article:

''Terralink managing director Mike Donald said mortgagee sales were hitting ordinary homeowners, and 36% of forced sales were driven by the major banks. He expects mortgagee numbers to keep increasing, especially as unemployment rises''.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/2546165/Mortgagee-sales-reach-1-in-25-level

He presumably has some figures on which to base this.

I also think you should take a look at the sudden and very pronounced turn in the inventory levels of houses for sale - there are 1600 more houses for sale in NZ than there was a week ago. I suspect this heralds the end of the dead cat bounce.

Finally Alistair Helm claimed some time ago that the number of houses for sale via mortgagee action had peaked some time ago. I think that prediction is going to be shown to be wrong in the none too distant future.

"Terralink managing director Mike Donald said mortgagee sales were hitting ordinary homeowners, and 36% of forced sales were driven by the major banks. He expects mortgagee numbers to keep increasing, especially as unemployment rises".

Now I wonder how many of these "family homes" are where ppl have re mortgaged their old family home of a decade or so, built or purchased and new one (or several) rented out the "family home" and righting off everything they can by following advise given by 'financial advisers' about tax right off and got themselves in deep crap with IRD....
I know of 2, and a couple more that as time rolls on the IRD debit gets bigger..when they too get zapped.
Then those who over committed..basic bad business practices....recession or not, same thing would eventually happen if greedy.

Take these out of the equation and I wonder how many left are genuine hard luck cases...

Recession is good...Primarily hits the greedy, the tax evaders...and leaves most honest , sensible people just to tighten the belts and budget thru.

While it is not great to see homes lost to forced sales, the overall effect as it plays out should see cheaper buying for those who are still saving.
Investors should also be wary and it does not matter in the end if they grab a few provided market forces on rents still persist as they are currently.
It is inevitable that the cost of finance rises from the lows and then even more forced sales will occur if helped by migration and employment stress.
There is only the one factor to consider for the long term and that is the property value to rent which is still over 20% elevated from where it would be considered neutral.
What we do need is political action to right the wrongs of the 2007 highs by whatever means be it CGT or getting rid of LAQCs while the market is still falling. Perhaps a 50% reduction in LAQC allowance would be a start.

The data of new listings of mortgagee properties - based on your correct assessment should provide a forward view of the future sales of mortgagee properties. The correlation between listings in Jan and sales in March as listings in Feb to sales in April - these should provide a view of the listings in May to the sales in July and the listings in June to the sales in August.

My advice to any FHB looking for a bargain at the moment is to wait, even if it hurts, wait for a year at least.

The long and the short of it is house prices are going to reflect demand. The chart indicates house prices will drop and continue to drop until the the supply is sopped up. A capital gains tax will put a wet blanket on speculative buyers, drive up rental costs and allow the market to attain some kind of equilibrium. The cost of borrowing must increase at some point and that will truly put an end to the New Zealand housing bubble for a generation. It's time we put a fork in the housing market and allow capital to create sustainable manufacturing jobs.

This is key, as Ross points out, bidding was "below the bank reserve price" - meaning bedding was below what the amount outstanding to the bank was. I'm guessing the bank are presently looking at the general perception of 'green shoots' in the housing market and they may well be quite a bit more active in getting customers in arrears to foreclosure quickly.... as they probably realise this market has a long way down to go yet and the folly of their lending practices is yet to bite.