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Opinion: Auckland leads NZ's shift to a services-based society

Posted in News

Auckland's low GDP per person growth suggests that much of the region's economic growth has merely come from adding more people to the region. This has a familiar ring to it. It parallels New Zealand's growth and productivity woes. As a country we have relied heavily on working more hours each week to increase our output rather than producing more for each hour that we work. Why has Auckland's per capita growth been so much lower than the rest of the country? It is not to do with the type of industries that are located in Auckland. In fact the reverse is true. The industries that have performed well in New Zealand during the boom years are better represented in Auckland than those industries that have performed poorly. The answer possibly lies in the nature of its population growth. Auckland is the first destination for most immigrants arriving in New Zealand and strong net migration has been the biggest contributor to Auckland's population growth this decade. New migrants make an immediate contribution to the economy of their new home through their demand for accommodation and other goods and services. But research suggests that although migrants provide a net boost to economic performance, the gain in GDP per person can be quite small, and even negative for a period as migrants adjust to their new environment. As a result regions in which migrants make up a sizeable portion of population growth may experience lower growth in GDP per person than regions whose populations have grown primarily through natural growth (births exceeding deaths). Research published by Treasury shows that migrants tend to go through an initial adjustment period that can last 5-10 years as they adjust to their new country, work culture and sometimes language. In this period their productivity is below their potential. As an immigrant myself I know how unproductive the first few years in a new country can be. For New Zealand Auckland probably bears the greatest cost of acclimatising new migrants as it is the gateway to New Zealand for many new migrants. After finding their feet in Auckland, many new migrants move to other parts of New Zealand. Auckland has effectively been achieving much of its growth through selling its lifestyle to foreigners. It has lifestyle in buckets and Auckland consistently performs well in international quality of life surveys. In the 2009 Mercer survey it was ranked joint fourth out of 215 cities in 2009, up from fifth in 2008. And immigrant populations can contribute in non-economic ways to reinforce the quality of life, especially through their infusion of culture and cuisine. Is what has happened in Auckland indicative of a fundamental change in the economic model of New Zealand? Historically our wealth has revolved around exploiting our relative abundance in arable land, combined with hard work and smart thinking, to produce exports. Now it seems a major means of expanding wealth is to sell the land directly to migrants. This subtly changes our source of competitive advantage away from the productivity of our land to factors that enhance lifestyles. New Zealand, and Auckland in particular, is an embodiment of the shift to a service based post-industrial society.   ________________ * Infometrics is an economic information and forecasting company based in Wellington. To find out more, see its website here. This piece first appeared in the Dominion Post on June 13, 2009.

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

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This is EXACTLY WHAT I

This is EXACTLY WHAT I HAVE BEEN SAYING for ages. High immigration looks fantastic for the stats, and benefits big business (eg supermarkets) and those who already own housing but is crap for everyone else. Immigration should SUPPLEMENT A NEED FOR SKILLED/UNSKILLED LABOUR. It SHOULD NOT be used as a driver for economic growth - when that occurs most of us lose out in the long run. I am concerned we are reverting to this model again as a means to boost our horrendously overpriced housing market.

and the article is bang on - when we take this approach we are effectively SELLING OUR GREAT LIFESTYLE ... or more correctly BOOMERS ARE SELLING THE LIFESTYLE THEY ENJOYED TO FOREIGNERS AS OPPOSED TO PASSING IT ON TO THEIR KIDS.

And so. We have become

And so.

We have become a nation of hairdressers

You got it Jimmy but

You got it Jimmy but if you think the fools in the Beehive have, then you are in for a shock. They will see a wave of wealthy immigrants as a ticket to staying in office and that comes before all other matters. Best thing to do is plan your escape to a better place before all the roads are crammed and the London high rise slums dot the lanscape of every city. You can count on another stupendously stupid property bubble and then another and then another. Good old NZ fatheaded road to failure.

"Local policy makers need to

"Local policy makers need to recognise that the game is lost once the attitude blossoms that there is nothing to be done but accept the inevitable that manufacturing is a "sunset" sector, and that the future is services. Giving up on manufacturing will see the global mobility of the sector take effect. In such circumstances, New Zealand can anticipate a continued slide in comparative living standards. Do we want that or do we work for, develop and apply policy that can help prevent it?"

From , The Myth of Services, 7th June, here:

http://www.mea.org.nz/media/viewpoint.aspx

(Just after 'The End of the Tradeable Sector' in the list.)

I guess we couldn't care less so long as we can keep inflating property prices aided by the 'subsidy that got away' in the 'asset tax haven' that New Zealand has become. Goodbye Gen X & Y, it was nice knowing you.

I came to NZ 13

I came to NZ 13 years ago and I still think it is one of the best countries in the world in which to live. However, being originally born in the UK, I have learnt that the larger the population the worse the quality of life. It would be a real shame if NZ finished up having multiple cities like Auckland all over the place. I currently live in a small town in North Canterbury and I love it. I know all my neighbours and there is a real sense of community in the town. It would be a real shame if NZ lost all the benefits of having a small population. Small is good! Wally - I think you will be very hard pressed to find another country as good as NZ in which to live.

Andy Rodgers, how about summer

Andy Rodgers, how about summer in NZ on the South Island and winter up in the tropics on your own boat? You are right about the road to ruin being paved with too many people but that is what the NZ govt thinks amounts to a wonderful future. The high rise slums will spread across Auckland and on to all other centres. They will be copies of the fabulous rubbish built in the UK and the poor will be throwing their junk out the windows down onto the concrete battlegrounds between the towers.

I think London would have

I think London would have to be one of the worst examples to pick from for a high popn desity model. Much much better by Far is Tokyo, or Singapore or HK. These are great cities in which to live and work. Why could NZ not be like them instead of following our old colonial roots back to the good old dirty, smogy, grimy UK?
We don't have to have high rise slums if we don't want them.

"Andy Rodgers, how about summer

"Andy Rodgers, how about summer in NZ on the South Island and winter up in the tropics on your own boat? " Wally - I find NZ winters, even on the SI, to be relatively mild compared to the UK winters, so I am managing to cope very well. Maybe as I get older I might decide to winter over on the Gold Coast as many Cantabrians do. FYI I built my own house using Insulating Concrete Formwork, so I live in a warm house unlike a lot of the fridges which pass for houses in Canterbury.

RogerRamjet - I have never

RogerRamjet - I have never been to Tokyo but have visited HK and Singapore and you couldn't pay me to live in either of those places. Both these tiny islands have higher populations than NZ, their population densities are enormous.

Andy Rodgers, well well different

Andy Rodgers,
well well different strokes for different folks.

Once you get over the King of the Castle, my house is bigger than yours mentality then they are actually very safe, friendly, pleasant places to live and work.
I think that kind of model would be good for Auckland in about 20 yrs time or so.

RogerRamjet - Point taken, I

RogerRamjet - Point taken, I just hope that urban living on this scale never reaches the SI. If it does I suppose I could always move to Stewart Island!

Andy Rodgers - NZ might

Andy Rodgers - NZ might be so much better than UK from various perspectives (except decent real ale of course!) but it ain't all sweetness and light either, especially for indigenous Gen X and Y:

http://www.interest.co.nz/ratesblog/index.php/2009/06/23/poll-result-45-...

And follow it through to Bernard's Herald article.

Cheers, Les.

Les - I have a

Les - I have a Gen Y son who is doing very well working for one of the big 4 Aussie banks. The only drawback is that he works in Auckland. I believe that in many ways people create their own reality. I know that NZ is not perfect but compared to the UK it's comes pretty close. I also lived in Australia for a couple of years and it's a bit like Paris, nice place shame about the people!

No, slums it will be

No, slums it will be and 10 million people crammed in by 2030 is on the cards. It will be sold as progress and a way of improving living standards. No more lugging wheely bins to the gate, just biff you crap out the window. Them in the 'penthouse' will be able to have a round of golf from one to the other.