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Top 10 at 10: The Stress starts tonight; GM shuts plants for 9 weeks; Negative interest rates?
Here's my top 10 links from around the Internet at 10 am. I welcome your suggestions in the comments below.
1. The US Treasury will start privately briefing the big US banks on the results of its widely anticipated 'Stress Test' later tonight. The results will be made public on Monday May 4, WSJ.com reports. This means the next week or two could see 'pre-announcements' by stressed backs trying to get ahead of the game. The fact it's all announced on a Monday is interesting too. Usually the collapses and rescue deals are done on weekends to avoid markets complicating negotiations. The next couple of weekends could be very interesting.
2. America's Federal Deposit Insurance Corp (FDIC) is woefully underfunded, Michael Shedlock argues at Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis. He points to the FDIC's Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) reserve ratio dropping by 75% inside a year. Here's the chart. Here's a taste of what it might mean.
Reserves have plunged, no doubt on their way to negative territory as the number of problem institutions soars. Expect to see requests for more taxpayer bailouts as the FDIC well runs dry.
3. Chrysler is likely to be put into bankruptcy protection next week, the New York Times is reporting.
4. General Motors will close most of its plants for 9 weeks this (Northern Hemisphere) summer to clear unsold inventory, the AP reports.
5. The always excellent Tyler Durden at ZeroHedge points out that the US Federal Reserve has reported a loss of 28% on a bunch of commercial loans it took over from Bear Stearns and a loss of 36% from a bunch of residential loans from Bear Stearns.
6. Paul Krugman at the New York Times points out the absurdities of an accounting system that judges Citigroup's profits healthier because it was seen by the markets as more likely to fail, while Morgan Stanley's profits fell because it was seen as healthier.
Related Topics
7. Here's the Onion's immediate recall of all US dollars. Don't worry. It's not true...
Treasury Department Issues Emergency Recall Of All US Dollars
8. Matt Nolan at TVHE has some interesting musings about issue of negative interest rates. He concludes it's not easy and points out this a question of whether it can be done, rather than whether it should be done.
9. US Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner is failing to lift his game in appearances before Congress, says Andrew Leonard at Salon.com. Here's a taste. HT Felix Salmon
I've watched or pored over the transcripts of almost all of Geithner's testimony before Congress, and it's getting harder and harder to make a case in defense of his brief tenure. Tuesday's hearing, before the Congressional Oversight Panel empowered by Congress to watch over the TARP program, ranks as one of his least satisfying performances so far. Results of the stress tests are due soon, his Public-Private Investment Program is getting assailed from all sides, the banks are releasing profit numbers that are clearly the result of dodgy accounting techniques, and still, Geithner refuses to defend his actions with any argument more compelling than that, in the administration's judgment, their chosen strategy is the least costly way to ensure the stability and health of the overall financial system. It's a shtick that is wearing thin.
10. Nouriel Roubini at RGE Monitor releases his forecast for the global economy for 2009. He sees a 1.9% contraction in 2009, which is worse than the 1.3% forecast by the IMF earlier this week. Here's a taste.
Many analysts and commentators are pointing out that the second derivative of economic activity is turning positive (i.e. economies are still contracting but a slower rather than accelerated rate) and that green shoots of an economic recovery are blossoming. RGE Monitor's analysis of the data suggests that the global economic contraction is still in full swing with a very severe, a deep and protracted U-shaped recession. Last year's economic consensus forecast of a V-shaped short and shallow recession has vanished. While the rate of economic contraction is slowing compared to the free fall rates of Q4 of 2008 and Q1 of 2009, we are still a long way away from the economic bottom and from a sustained recovery of growth. In particular, in Europe and Japan there is little evidence of a positive second derivative of economic activity.
And, finally, I couldn't resist this as the last video for the weekend. For all those heavy watchers of financial television. It made me laugh.
Prison Economy Spirals As Price Of Pack Of Cigarettes Exceeds Two Hand Jobs
Those Onion clips are brilliant.
Those Onion clips are brilliant.
Bernard - this picture and
Bernard - this picture and article from the Economist are well worth a look:
http://www.economist.com/opinion/displayStory.cfm?story_id=13527685&
Bridgecorp payout may be less
Bridgecorp payout may be less than 10pc
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/2360991/Bridgecorp-payout-may-be-less-th...
Ouch - thats $400million plus
Ouch - thats $400million plus in losses then. I suspect many of the investors concerned have not budgeted on losses remotely on that scale. An average loss of $28,000 plus for the 14,300 investors.
I note this comment:
''Bridgecorp collapsed in July 2007. Since then the estimates of potential returns to investors have been going down and down as the economy and particularly the property market have declined''.
Good job the Hannover investors (and the investors in other such comapanies) voted to go for moratoria rather than wind ups then. After all it looks like Bridgecorp must have had all the loans effected by the on-going decline in the economy/the property market, these other finance companies are bound to have been doing better in the interim eh?
The below is from one
The below is from one of the very best informative websites you will ever come across - Multinational Monitor - from there worst 10 corporations of 2008. A great incite into the current financial crisis from those who have tracked such matters for over 20 years;
2008 marks the 20th anniversary of Multinational Monitor's annual list of the 10 Worst Corporations of the year...... But we've never had a year like 2008.......... The financial crisis first gripping Wall Street and now spreading rapidly throughout the world is, in many ways, emblematic of the worst of the corporate-dominated political and economic system that we aim to expose with our annual 10 Worst list. Here is how.
Improper political influence: Corporations dominate the policy-making process, from city councils to global institutions like the World Trade Organization. Over the last 30 years, and especially in the last decade, Wall Street interests leveraged their political power to remove many of the regulations that had restricted their activities. There are at least a dozen separate and significant examples of this, including the Financial Services Modernization Act of 1999, which permitted the merger of banks and investment banks. In a form of corporate civil disobedience, Citibank and Travelers Group merged in 1998 "” a move that was illegal at the time, but for which they were given a two-year forbearance "” on the assumption that they would be able to force a change in the relevant law. They did, with the help of just-retired (at the time) Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin, who went on to an executive position at the newly created Citigroup.
http://www.multinationalmonitor.org/mm2008/112008/weissman.html
While you are there check out the Editors blog and archived issues, I all but guarantee it will be like a book you cant put down, a true wealth of institutional memory.
There was an extremely good
There was an extremely good essay in "Quadrant" in March:
"The Dangerous Return To Keynesian Economics" By Steve Kate
http://www.quadrant.org.au/blogs/qed/2009/02/the-dangerous-return-to-key...
Other nations got out of the great depression much quicker than the USA did, with balanced budgets and small government.
Excellent links from PhilBest and
Excellent links from PhilBest and from andy hamilton. Engrossing reading. Pity that precious few politicians will read them, let alone understand or believe the message. I think Bill English is onto smaller Gumnut, but mainly because our accounts are in a parlous state. Can anyone theorize, had Labour won the last election, what their response would be to the monster recession ? Goffy and Cossy seem to have plenty of opinions, contrary to what Key and English are doing, but these clowns had 9 years in power, and look where they led us.
In a way, I would
In a way, I would have enjoyed watching Helen and Michael try to cope with the recession. Overseas capital markets are actually not all that willing right now to lend much at all to NZ, even with National as the government. So Keynesian stimuli might not have been an option for long anyway.
I just sincerely hope that New Zealanders understand, for the next two elections at least, where the blame lies for our plight, seeing the National government has come to office at such a very unpropitious time.
Ah cummon leave our government
Ah cummon leave our government out of it. Interesting to point out our little insignificant economy matters very little on the global stage. This is a time when we Kiwis need to bond together and ride out these tough times and regale our new migrants, for we are the land of milk and honey...not some washed up Antipodean bunch of ex pat Scottish Moteliers who'd love nothing better than to hear of Mad Cow disease in The King Country...One interesting point is we Kiwis seem to be going back to good old fashioned basics, home cooking, rugby, racing and beer...Long Live our No. 8 wire!!
Yeah, well, that seems to
Yeah, well, that seems to be the way its working at the moment, Know All; Helen Clark off to the UN, Mikey Cullen given a nice top job, no blame, positive politics. Best of luck to John Key for having set a new standard in this way. I hope it survives the next change of government. Leftwing governments and their media friends have a nasty habit of not reciprocating gentlemanly behavior from their Tory opponents.
Phil & Roger you poor
Phil & Roger you poor blinkered individuals you still do not get the fact that this nation has been run from behind the diplomatic curtain by a right wing banking co-operative bureaucracy almost since the first point of continuous European contact.
We have not had a true change of Government in this country since The Labour government of 1939 backed down to international banking after being threatened with economic sanctions for using our public credit facilities to fund the building of our State Housing Project with money borrowed from no-one, owed to no-one. Since that time on we have had governments that have been run by puppet strings or those that have willingly coerced with the borderless banking empire to feather their own nests at the wider expense of all of New Zealand.