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Opinion: How NZ can increase productivity by focussing on global connections

Posted in News

Neville Bennett

By Neville Bennett

Treasury's latest paper strongly advocates opening New Zealand up to more competition. This is a good idea for the purest classical economist but even they might question pursuing that policy in a deep recession.

New Zealand could have a more liberal regime to immigration, it could have less restraints on foreign capital (especially on buying land), and it could take away our few remaining tariffs on textiles and footwear but is that a good thing?

My own inclination is to say that we have got the mix about right although I have some doubts about immigration, when I see who gets permanent residency (I am a JP). But a more liberal regime can, arguably, improve productivity and we all approve of that.

Advances in productivity are the main cause of long-run increases in real income. To grow, one must use inputs of capital and labour more intelligently. Beyond that, gains can come from the introduction of innovation, skills, investment, entrepreneurship and natural resources. International connections have been suggested as another key driver, especially since a World Bank study of 13 top economies emphasized that "they imported what the"¦ world knew, and exported what it wanted".

The link between international connections and rising productivity is a hypothesis. Certainly is seems valid and New Zealand's Treasury is to be commended in considering it as part of its on-going valuable research. A new study assumes the theory is valid, but more will be required to substantiate it.

To some extent I smell a rat. It is as though Treasury wants to advocate more openness but suspects politicians will not go with its proposals for fear of losing jobs. So it wraps the argument in the warm fuzzy idea of improving productivity. My suspicion rests in part on a lack of quantification of what more openness can deliver in productivity gains.

The study

Nevertheless, this is important research because, contrary to many views, Treasury believes New Zealand is currently "only moderately well connected to the world economy". Clearly adjustment could assist this country to come out of the recession well-positioned for rapid take-off. Strengthening international connections should be a priority. What needs to be done?

There has to be some hard thinking first of all. My motto has always been "question everything", so I endorse the argument that "being open is generally {a} necessary, but not sufficient condition to becoming connected'. Being "open" merely means low formal restrictions such as low tariffs, while being "connected" means actually having substantial trade, immigration or capital flows.

There is also a distinction between policies at-the-border, (like investment screening) which generally indicate how open an economy is. Thinking can stop there, but "becoming connected" requires looking at policies behind-the"“border; at regulation, or security of electricity and a myriad of matters which affect relative prices, even market failure.

Essentially, New Zealand already benefits economically from a series of international flows in trade, people, capital and ideas. These allow us to access resources and knowledge, stimulate competition, specialize in niches etc, in order to produce more smartly and grow. Obviously, cooperation with international partners can help to develop beneficial policies and flows.

What to do?

New Zealand has to overcome the "tyranny of distance", to access resources that will increase productivity and find niches where it has a comparative advantage. It can increase its connectivity, although it scores highly in flows of people and even of inward investment, but its trade and outward direct investment are floundering.

Treasury rightly argues knowledge of the world comes through flows of imports, migrants and foreign investment. This may underrate the universities and business, I think, as internally generated and dissimulated knowledge is important.

Problems

New Zealand's remoteness and small size makes foreign competition significant. The OECD calculates distance lowers GDP per person by a 10%. Agriculture faces strong trade barriers and has low R&D; tourism is more important to New Zealand than it is to more developed economies. "Virtual Water" is a key export.

Visitors are overwhelmingly tourists, although foreign students are very significant because NZ has a higher proportion of foreign students in its student population than any other country, except Luxembourg. Migration is a "brain-exchange" as migrants have higher education levels than New Zealand"“born residents. The Kiwi diaspora is large, about 14% of the population. The exodus of skilled workers is the largest in the OECD.

Some conclusions

By being active internationally, New Zealand can get access to resources that improve productivity, including talent, capital and foreign goods and services, either as final products or intermediate inputs.

Perhaps knowledge, especially technological change, is the most important international connection. New Zealand needs to tap into though imports, capital injections, and an interaction between residents, migrants, scholars, tourists and overseas kiwis. The study arguably under-emphasizes business in this role.

Priorities

Domestic policy settings should attempt to create comparative advantages through enhancing competition and increasing benefits arising from our resources. Moreover integration with the Asia-pacific regional market should be increased. Restraints on inward and outward flows should be as low as possible.

Domestic Policy should:

"¢ Ensure tax and regulations encourage entrepreneurship, interestingly partly by shifting the tax base from mobile bases (income and profits) to immobile bases (land and consumption).

"¢ Dampen exchange rate volatility to encourage the tradable sector.

"¢ Develop an integrated approach to international flows of people, covering migrants, students, overseas kiwis, business and researchers.

"¢ Improve our overseas presence to help business abroad

"¢ Facilitate international knowledge transfer.

"¢ Allocate natural resources more efficiently to support developments that use water inputs, and produce carbon as a by-product.

Becoming an integral part of the Asia-Pacific regional Economic Market:

"¢ Have a clear strategy of engagement with the region

"¢ Continue to develop a single market with Australia as part of the wider aim.
Further reduce barriers;

"¢ Phase out existing tariffs

"¢ Improve, even remove, investment screening

"¢ Low cost border and custom control

"¢ Ensure low cost, high speed broadband

"¢ Encourage saving to reduce cost of capital

"¢ In negotiation, press hard for reduced barriers on our goods and services.

My reactions

This is first-class, valuable research. I have supplied only some of the bare bones but the interested readers will find fascinating discussion and compelling detail in the very cogent, well-integrated research. It shows that much can be done to stimulate the economy.

Some measures may seem a little doctrinaire and politically difficult, for example I cannot condone increasing distress among textile and footwear workers (and other manufacturers) for by removing our few remaining tariffs merely to show how virtuous we are in being tariff-free. Nevertheless, this research could inform a progressive government's agenda for several years.

"”"”"”"”"”

* Neville Bennett was a long-time Senior Lecturer in History at the University of Canterbury, where he taught since 1971. His focus is economic history and markets. He is also a columnist for the NBR where a version of this item first appeared.

http://www.treasury.govt.nz/publications/research-policy/tprp/09-01/tprp09-01.pdf

  

   

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

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1 Comments

I recently came across your

I recently came across your blog and have been reading along. I thought I would leave my first comment. I don't know what to say except that I have enjoyed reading. Nice blog. I will keep visiting this blog very often.

Joannah

http://2gbmemory.net

During the last 50 years

During the last 50 years NZ has moved from having one of the highest standards of living in the OECD to sitting near the tail end. In that time the population has doubled but the number of farmers earning the income has hardly changed. In which case is immigration all that is cracked up to be? May be it just dilutes our income (and the productivity stats).

Another inspiring article Neville –

Another inspiring article Neville "“ great!
To reduce my philosophy/ plans about increasing productivity to a few sentences:
The best possible way to master this recession (upcoming depression) is to put new and rather revolutionary ideas into practice.
In our modern, but increasingly self- destructive world New Zealand's remoteness also has great advantages- it gives us the opportunity to do things different.
Purity in many forms of life's and business could be our biggest export and could earn millions within New Zealand in the future.
The potential is right here- so we should use our brains.

Yeah right, we have had

Yeah right, we have had the most open economy in the world and where are we. We have not had a positive balance of payments in 50 years where our earnings have exceeded our borrowings. We have been liquidated twice, 1961 & 1984, being forced to sell some of the family jewels to alleviate debt. We have been under control of our receivers from behind the diplomatic curtain since 61. Those receivers are the Treasury and NZDMO. We have paid them handsomely to supposedly trade us out of our troubles, yet since under their guidance we have been forced to sell assets again in 84. We are facing another massive current account deficit crisis and the National Party run by the central bankers favourite son are preparing the assets for sale.
I am afraid Nevile I will not be listening to what David Lange described as "the foreign cabinet" and succumbing to their advice to even further open this nation to allow them to take control of what little of our necessities of life we have left.

Unless the Debt Creation Mechanism is returned to decent hands, nothing will change.
The current cry about governments 'printing money' is hype - what they are doing is rapidly expanding the debt base of their economies by printing more debt in the form of interest bearing securities.

Iain, this article made me

Iain,
this article made me think of you.

"http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL0904/S00068.htm" The Financial War Against Iceland

"To put Iceland's financial dilemma in perspective, examine how other countries have dealt with huge debt obligations. Historically, the path of least resistance has been to "inflate their way out of debt." The idea is to pay debts with "cheap money" in terms of its reduced purchasing power. Governments do this by printing money and running budget deficits (spending more than they take in through taxes) large enough to raise prices as this new money chases the same volume of goods That is how Rome depreciated its currency in antiquity, and how America managed to erode much of its own debt in the 1970s "“ and how the dollar's falling international value has wiped out much of the U.S. international debt in recent years. This price inflation reduces the debt burden "“ as long as wages and other income rise in tandem.

Faced with an unprecedented explosion of debt obligations "“ many of them apparently fraudulent, and certainly in violation of traditional credit practice "“ Iceland has turned this inflationary solution inside out. Instead of permitting the classic credit cure of inflating the currency, it has created a dream economy for creditors, preventing the classical escape from debt. Iceland has found a way to inflate its way into debt, not out of it. By indexing debt to the rate of inflation, it has guaranteed a unique windfall for banks that vastly increases what they receive in a "down market," at the expense of wage earners and industrial profits. Linking mortgage loans to the consumer price index (CPI) in the face of a depreciating currency and heavy balance-of-payments drain to foreigners can have only one result: destruction of Iceland's society and its traditional way of life.

Iceland needs to repudiate this debt bomb. Under present policy its debts will never lose value, because they are indexed to inflation. This in turn is being caused in large part by foreign debt service collapsing the currency, raising import prices and thus causing even larger debt payments in an endless treadmill. The economy shrinks, wages fall and assets lose value, yet debt obligations continue to grow and grow. The resulting evisceration of wages, living standards and consumer spending will further shrink the economy "“ a prescription for economic virus that threatens to plague Iceland for many decades if it is not reversed now"

Is this scenario really happening?

Gibber - unfortunately it happening

Gibber - unfortunately it happening alright. There have been hundreds of construed current account crisis in most nations throughout the world since the creation of the Worldbank and the IMF after WWII. The evidence that has been brought to light is just to compelling to conclude it is anything other than rigged not random.

Jeeez, Reading your article concerns

Jeeez, Reading your article concerns me a lot...
Opening up, Connecting with the rest of the world....???? Well hello.....Go and have a look at the World from a grass roots level ....I think its time to close shop and rein in our free trade polcies...They have been an absolute disaster...This is reflected in NZ'ers weekly earnings....
Sounds like Jenny Shipley promoting NZ'ers as "the cheapest educated, English speaking work force in the world" mentality....
The way I see it NZ has always done well when "looking in" not looking out....Having faith in our own abilities and generally having a go.....
Productivity......This word has to be the most talked about but least understood and the most manipulated...(the US, UK has 30k ???? per person oweing for various government debt)...
.Sounds like we really have open up to them and learn how to do it as well...I know let them in the country and we can pay it for them....Have a promotional thing happening...!!!! What an absolute facade....

Take Sealords for example....Half owned by the Japanese....Lease there quota for 1$ A year...Have only 1 factory trawler left and have its quota caught by Russians,Poilish vessels....No tax revenue from there crew......and NZ crew working for peanuts....
No tariifs, Free trade.....Yeah right...

I am not necessarily advocating

I am not necessarily advocating Treasury policy. They do research but I am about the only perosn that publishes it and makes it more accessible. i want to air the case and encourage others to look at it.

personally, i see no point in further tariff reductions, textile and footware people would bear an unequal burden. Moreover, free trrade has deskilled us, i worry about work for highly skilled people like fitters and turners, we are losing capacity to make things. I agree the sealord situation should be looked at, i need more info on it, more data..

yeah, who owns the other

yeah, who owns the other half of Sealord. Nga Tahu corporation. No wonder Tipene O'regan no longer wants bugger all to do with them. He thinks they are becoming as slaveminded as those who carried out the abuses for which they recieved the compensation money with which they fund their corporate activities.

Oh Dear, here we go

Oh Dear, here we go again!
Thanks Neville an interesting article, but what are they thinking?
First I'd like to address this old chestnut of productivity. (I won't dwell on the fact that our low productivity is probably helping us a lot in the present global crisis.)

New Zealand's two main industries are farming and tourism.

Farming

Our farming productivity is probably the equal of most, and it is difficult to see how it could be significantly improved without combining farms and chucking a fair few people on the scrapheap. Is larger and more industrialised farming what we want?

Tourism

How exactly could we increase productivity in tourism? More self-service restaurants, bigger hotels, bigger coaches? Do these 'we must increase productivity' gurus actually have any notion of how to do it?

Many of our other industries really only exist to service these two main ones, so the only way, it would seem, of increasing productivity is to come up with some completely new industries, such as.........

I've had long experience with small countries with which we are always being compared; Finland, which has a strong history of engineering and design, Ireland, which has taken good advantage of its fortunate location and language, Belgium, similarly.
In New Zealand there is no industry which identifies itself as a possible major earner, and the expert observers do not appear to have identified one either. So let's not beat ourselves up needlessly.

On this business of 'connectedness' you are certainly right to smell a rat Neville. We are 'connected' to Australia and look what has happened! Head offices closed down here there and everywhere, and when the going gets tough, the remaining branches get closed too. This month we have Pacific Brands and Gunns, and no doubt several others, closing NZ operations. And we won't mention the banks!

Sure, there are a number of industries which could do with a bit more of a helping hand, but that needs to be done cautiously. Let's not have another 'think big' fiasco.

The fact is Neville we

The fact is Neville we were told that trading with nations with the advantages of slave labour would be of no concern because the increased demand in labour would lift the work conditions of the slaves and eventually erode their competitive advantage and level the playing field.
I put it to you that in fact the opposite has happened, those that have been openly trading with slavery nations have seen the destruction of the wages and conditions of their citizens. Turning them into similar caste class systems with massive disparities in wealth, all the while the conditions of the slaves in the slave nations traded with have seen little or no change;
http://www.bilaterals.org/rubrique.php3?id_rubrique=21
http://www.citizen.org/trade/issues/mai/
http://www.corpwatch.org/index.php
leading to this;
OECD on world growing unequal
http://www.oecd.org/document/14/0,3343,en_2649_33933_41533262_1_1_1_1,00...

I have just come across

I have just come across a site that will go my must visit daily list;
http://multinationalmonitor.org/

The editor has one of the very best knowledges of all things financial and a very straight forward understandable writing style to boot. Found on his editorial blog;
http://www.multinationalmonitor.org/editorsblog/

Has articles like these that are quite simply a must read;
http://www.multinationalmonitor.org/editorsblog/index.php?/archives/106-...

http://www.multinationalmonitor.org/editorsblog/index.php?/archives/107-...

http://www.multinationalmonitor.org/editorsblog/index.php?/archives/105-...

This brilliant article explains in

This brilliant article explains in just what package the banker imposed "Global Connection" comes in. The -Structural Adjustment- Programs that were imposed on nations in debt repayment crisis have been revised to -Private Sector Development Strategy-;

"The evidence is now unequivocal: both cost recovery and the privatization of essential basic services inevitably lead to deeper inequity, and safety nets fail to prevent this," concludes Save the Children UK in a recent report.

The World Bank spokesperson agrees that "there is no doubt that companies will serve better off customers first," but holds that there are ways to make up the difference. "You can design a privatization that puts the focus on poor customers. ... [I]t is possible to do this equitably."

The Bank has also set up training programs for regulators in developing countries, but some complain these programs, more than anything else, are designed to convert regulators into advocates of privatization.

The Bank may have even more influence in particular "investment climate" matters, because its IFC - which supports foreign investment in developing countries, and also directly invests in projects in Third World countries - can promise investment in exchange for policy changes.

"Development institutions such as the IFC have special relationships with governments," explains the PSDS. "This allows them to reduce political risks (mainly expropriation risks including currency transfer and breach of contract) associated with investing in a country - given a particular policy environment. Private co-financiers benefit from such risk mitigation ability of development institutions. IFC may also help improve the policy environment itself. The government may be willing to adjust policies, when the IFC is involved as an investor in a particular project."

http://www.multinationalmonitor.org/mm2002/092002/tannenbaum.html

its a pig with lipstick;
http://www.ifc.org/

not a lot has changed from this;
http://www.serendipity.li/hr/imf_and_dollar_system.htm

Iain, very simple question. What

Iain, very simple question.
What you predict will happen with economy globally and nationally in near future? Thanks

I believe the human animal

I believe the human animal is going to confront the question that is the very basis of psychology, that being the struggle between learned behaviours of common decency and our self destructive animal instincts.
We are at a tipping point right here, right now. The central bankers and their majority stakeholder owned multinational corporations are making their play at complete monopolisation of the means of production of the world by way of systemic global debt crisis. Looking to further consolidate what is already the greatest border-less empire history has ever seen.
Nationally, Helen Clark/Michael Cullen failed in every way in their quest to stop the relentless march of what David Lange referred to as the "Foreign Cabinet", failed to stop our exponential net debt position of bogus loans and now that that foreign cabinet behind the diplomatic curtain once again have fully co-operative party executive back in power, we are being prepared for asset sales and privatisation as detailed in my posts above re WorldBank Private Sector Development Strategy. We have already been threatened with monetary sanctions if we do not address our current account deficit. Barring full reform of current international monetary mechanisms at international level it is hard to see this being stopped and NZ becoming very much a caste class system with civil unrest and instability becoming the norm as the shrinking of the distribution of the cake pushes the disenfranchised to raw animal survival.

Internationally, the situation is the same but on a global scale. They have this time set this thing up in most every nation at once. Very few party cabinet executives are not acting as well paid co-operatives to the cause or being forced to head instructions from central banker controlled international institutions via debt stress. If the international banking Cabal holds together and the basically decent majority of the world cant get enough independent source information to support enough decent administrations to impose a diplomatic revival of common decency, while there are still atleast a semblance of democratic structures in place, we are facing a global fiefdom full of serfs. Violent revolution would be and is proving to be nothing short of mass suicide as those who control high finance inevitably control the best weaponry. The United Nations Peace Keeping missions have a history of only being dispatched to protect the assets of the rich.
There is an even more harrowing scenario than above, that being if there is a falling out among the international Banking Cabal or their co-operatives, i.e. USA and China etc, there is the serious potential for massive conflict. The bankers in the past have liked nothing more than a war as a profitable diversion when their deceitful activities become all to obvious. The scary thing is the capabilities of modern weaponry and what those in control of them might do if they oneday feel they are between a rock and a hard place such as a population facing famine or water shortages.
The other much better scenario is that as this systemic central banking fraud comes more to light even the majority central banker stakeholder owned corporate media will not be able to continue to keep a lid on things and the diplomatic revival of common decency will occur and the necessary regulations to reign in the slaveminded in the current banking fraternity will be put in place and made to pay the reparations, not their victims.
From my studies I believe they need to look something like this;
http://socialcreditorbust.blog.co.nz/credit%20crisis%20solutions/

I add this compelling evidence from an institution that until today I did not know existed. Only a fool thinks there is ever not anything more to learn;
http://www.ifc.org/ifcext/media.nsf/Content/Home

and this piece of deja vu from 1980, proving nothing has changed, only the debt numbers are exponentially bigger this time round;
http://www.multinationalmonitor.org/hyper/issues/1980/04/taylor.html

Excellent article, Neville. Is it

Excellent article, Neville. Is it coincidence that during the 9 years of Clark/Cullen, they raised income taxes, petrol excise duties, and ACC levies : and our ranking in OECD statistics, across almost all categories of growth and productivity plummeted ? At the same time, Australia, one of our major trading partners, and competitors in export industries, took the opposite tack on taxes, and their economy grew, and grew !

When will we ever learn that socialism doesn't work. It breeds a feral underclass, feeding off the government teat. Why work and strive, when an invisible "they" will take care of our every need, from cradle to grave.

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/japan-agrees-move-fta-with-new-zeal

http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/japan-agrees-move-fta-with-new-zealand-101151
Ohh Great,
Korea and Japan....
Expect more bus loads from prepaid package deals, and not 2 cents kept in NZ.
More Korean and Japanese factory trawlers and not a cent kept in NZ...
Cheaper cars from an over flooded market....
One thing to remember from a simplest point of view (me) is the speed and ammount now wanting and agreeing to FTA....Is it because they know we have excess food products which they can not produce self sufficiently in there own country....????
Even Thailand has food shortages (another recent FTA handout)...And Malaysia with its Palm oil bubble...

The way I see it the longer GFC continues the greater the social insecurity in these countries.
And food costs being the catalyst of sorts...

John Kelly...The tourism industry is dead .....How any country can base/structure its economy around Tourism totally mystifies me. Same kind of thinking that you are wealthier if your house price goes up.....

Neville- A fitter & Turner....Well in NZ 35-45k , In Aust 80-135k + supper....Does'nt need a rocket scientist for that one. The wage disparities are accross the board in all skills.
Immigration...Touchy subject....Biggest Immigration is from India, Phillipines,(increases)
To be honest ,,,Not a great skill base there....Productive diaries and nannies with the odd maill order bride chucked in for good measure are not going to help NZ one iota....

For me , Iam happy to stay overseas, Work hard and get an honest days pay...Its as simple as that..

Roger - Socialism has never

Roger - Socialism has never been given a chance to work because it has so far always been subversively infiltrated and controlled by Neo-cons as amply proven by my evidence above. Thus we have never yet experienced the full potential of Socialism or most any other system, Capatalism included, for that matter, for the same reason.

Iain Parker, Michael Hudson interview

Iain Parker,
Michael Hudson interview on Iceland TV.

http://blogs.myspace.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=blog.view&friendId=3375066...

Michael Hudson says; "Having stuck

Michael Hudson says;
"Having stuck Third World countries with debts beyond their ability to pay, the IMF and World Bank used their creditor leverage to force governments to impose draconian austerity plans that had the effect of preventing growth toward industrial and agricultural self-sufficiency, thereby also crushing prospects for competitiveness. The IMF and World Bank then demanded that debtor countries sell off their public infrastructure, land, subsoil rights and other assets to pay the debts that these institutions sponsored so irresponsibly. (If IMF loans were not simply irresponsible, then they knowingly crippled debtor-country economies.) It is an age-old story of conquest, now accomplished without conventional warfare".

and with credentials like these, who would argue;

Another side to the discussion?

Despite having spent the past half-century focusing on countries with balance-of-payments problems, even I find Iceland's uniquely self-destructive financial regime shocking. Before you dismiss my candor, I should offer a short personal résumé so that you understand that my conclusions are based mainly on having been an insider to the game of imperial-style plundering of nations for forty years. In the mid-1960s I was the balance-of-payments economist for the Chase Manhattan Bank and then for Arthur Anderson, and later for the United Nations Institute for Training and Research (UNITAR). I have taught international economics at the graduate level since 1969, and now head an international group on economic and financial history based at Harvard. In 1990 at Scudder Stevens and Clark, I organized the world's first sovereign-debt fund. All these jobs involved analyzing the limited ability of debtor countries to pay "“ how much could be extracted from them through foreign-currency loans and how much public infrastructure was available to be sold off in a voluntary virtual foreclosure process by countries willing to submit to creditor-dictated rules.

I first wrote about monetary imperialism in the 1970s in my book Super Imperialism. It should have been entitled "Monetary Imperialism" because it detailed how replacing gold with paper dollar IOUs for trade and balance-of-payments deficits in 1971 allowed the United States to exploit the rest of the world without limit. Phasing out gold payments among central banks in favor of fiat paper money allowed the United States to run up massive debts equal to its cumulative payments deficit, far beyond its ability to pay. It currently owes over $4 trillion, while running a chronic trade deficit with enormous overseas military spending, financed entirely by other countries through their central banks. This is euphemized as the "international monetary system."

I also was an advisor to the Canadian government in the 1970s. My main work was to write a monograph explaining why countries should not borrow in foreign currencies, but should monetize their own credit for domestic spending and investment. In recent years I have taught in Latvia and given this same advice to its officials. I provide this background because it has obvious relevance to Iceland's financial situation today. It has broken the cardinal rule of international finance: Never borrow in a foreign currency for credit that you can create freely at home. Governments can inflate their way out of domestic debt "“ but not out of foreign debt. That is a large part of the problem that Iceland now faces.

A Chinese student when commenting

A Chinese student when commenting on another student said "they probably made it" (their money) because of the corruption. It didn't sound like sour grapes. I think we should be careful of the lump of money category.
Also i think we should consider the importance of the built environment and population growth: what use is extra income if you have a view of a wall. In the drive to extract maximum profit from land, developers are minimising space between buildings and shrinking sections.

The way of thinking is

The way of thinking is only the start, but essentially one day can make the difference. Now it is a good time here in New Zealand to make changes.
http://www.michaelmoore.com/words/message/index.php?id=248

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