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Bill English: Treasury just guessing when recovery will happen

Posted in News

Peseta Sam Lotu-Iiga: How have the Ministers expectations of economic recovery, as discussed in the Q+A interview, been influenced by earlier predictions about this economic cycle?

Hon BILL ENGLISH: I am surprised that Opposition members believe they have some capacity to pick when recoveries are going to occur. In March last year Helen Clark informed us that the economy was holding up well and that no policy response was being considered. The next day Michael Cullen conceded that New Zealand might be heading for a shallow, technical recession. By August 2008 he had revised the outlook to be the most challenging since 1987. The following month he assured New Zealanders that the worst was over"”a prediction that was premature, at best.

Hon David Cunliffe: Therefore, how does the Minister reconcile his statement that were unlikely to aggressively grow out of the recession with the Prime Ministers statement that we will come out of it reasonably aggressively? How can the public have any confidence whatsoever in the Governments handling of the economy when even the Prime Minister and his loyal deputy are in such stark disagreement?

Hon BILL ENGLISH: The public have a high level of confidence in the handling of the economy because the National Government is now in charge of it instead of a Labour Government. We are rolling out our plan, which is to protect people from the sharp edge of recession in the shorter term and to prepare the economy for growing rapidly as we come out of the recession. That is the only way we will be able to replace the jobs that are currently being lost day by day. I would have thought that Opposition members would take our sharply rising unemployment much more seriously than they do.

Hon David Cunliffe: Does the Minister agree with Treasurys recent warnings that an additional 60,000 people might lose their jobs and that the rise of unemployment could extend the recession and slow recovery? In light of this warning, does he stand by his comment regarding the Prime Ministers optimistic predictions that he wouldnt want to say hes wrong?

Hon BILL ENGLISH: Treasury is guessing. As I have said to the member before"”

Hon Member: Oh, theyre just guesses?

Hon BILL ENGLISH: Well, it is guessing"”no one knows quite what is going to happen. As I have said to the member before, we do not spend all our time sitting around redoing forecasts; we are getting on with an active and decisive programme that has strong public support. In fact, confidence in New Zealands economic direction is very high compared with almost any other developed country.

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment in the box on the right or click on the "'Register" link at the bottom of the comments. Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making these comments.

A sure sign that pressure

A sure sign that pressure is mounting - and yes, andrewj, something like that likely on the cards.

..or why not some struggling

Banking on Treasury Douglas and

Banking on Treasury
Douglas and Richardson needed considerable help in drafting their programs, getting them through the cabinet-where most of their colleagues cared very deeply about being re- elected-and driving the reforms down through the bureaucracy. What is startling is where that help came from.
It came in the shape of the Treasury, New Zealand's most elite and powerful department. Treasury provided not only the intellectual foundation for many of the reforms but also the technical expertise needed to translate theory into reality. "The Treasury became the life- support system for Douglas, Richardson, and other politicians trying to reform the system," says one longtime government watcher.
Treasury also brought an intellectually rigorous approach to New Zealand's reforms that had no parallel in either the Reagan or Thatcher administrations. "It became a "˜think tank' for the neo-liberal [in the classical sense of the word] movement," writes political scientist Enid Wistrich, "using its authority as the top government department to influence the political leaders and secure the implementation of its blueprint." It was as if the Office of Management and Budget were run by University of Chicago economists.
http://www.reason.com/news/show/30260.html
-------------------------------------
50 Mai Chen
Lawyer
New
You could say we've been slow in recognising Chen on the Power List "“ the clippings files are studded with references to her status as a powerful lobbyist and one of the nation's most influential women. She set up public law firm Chen Palmer with former prime minister Geoffrey Palmer in 1994, with the aim of pioneering Washington-style legal lobbying in Wellington: the idea was to get into the corridors of power and influence the way statutes and regulations were written, and give sharp strategic advice. They quickly had some of New Zealand's biggest companies on their books, and Chen has continued the momentum since Palmer left to preside over the Law Commission in 2005. She claimed last year that "most public law issues in New Zealand have had some input from us, whether that is known or not". Also a member of the Securities Commission and the Asia New Zealand Foundation.
------------------------------------------------
Washington Lobbying Grew to $3.2 Billion Last Year, Despite Economy
http://www.opensecrets.org/news/2009/01/washington-lobbying-grew-to-32.html

Ireland aye; http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/fi

Ireland aye;
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/5121728...

young Johny Key the central bankers favourite son;
http://www.beehive.govt.nz/minister/john+key?bio=1

wanted us to be just like them;
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/company-taxation/news/article.cfm?c_id=691&obj...

or did he, or did he know what was coming for them and intends NZ becoming the next money laundering tax haven for the central bankers borderless empire?
http://www.bilaterals.org/rubrique.php3?id_rubrique=100
http://www.citizen.org/trade/issues/mai/

Maybe its time for Johny

Maybe its time for Johny the central bankers favourite son to take responsibility like he said he should, I typed this out from a pre election interview on RadioLive;

Willy Jackson and John Tamahere interviewed John Key on afternoon of 5 Nov 2008.
Here is an answer given by John Key re what caused the credit crisis. It should be remembered that at about this time in the election campaign he was batting away questions from Labour in regard to his career at Merrill Lynch 7 years ago as being that long ago there is no way he could be tied to having any contribution to the current Credit Crisis;

Caller Matty asked John Key what he thought got the world into this position(Credit Crisis) John Key replied;
"Relatively quickly, you had a massive expansion of credit over the last decade or two, so basically the banks have gone and Lent miles of money engaged in very risky behaviour, they have done it to to much of an extreme and whats happened is that eventually the chickens have come home to roost and its all imploded and yup, you know Wall St its got to take responsibility for its own excesses and its got it wrong, the good news is from New Zealands point of view is our banks haven't really engaged in that kind of behaviour and don't have exposure to the kind of counter parties that fell over, but unfortunately Mum and Dad owe a lot of money, not the government, the governments not at all indebted really, but Mum and Dad are and whats happened is that liquidity to fund their borrowing is drying up".
John Tamahere asks;
"Ok, oh, exposure to the Australian banks".
John Key;
"Yeah, look I tell you the thing with the Australian banks is, it, um we need to, ah in one sense weve got a bit of strength funnily enough, I know people, I mean I support KiwiBank, we are not selling it, we never going to sell it, but, but I do support the fact that because the Australian banks have quite a big part of our market, because they are bigger, they're just bigger organisations they can actually weather these storms a little bit, there's some upsides, I know a lot of people don't like them, but there are some upsides to having them in our economy. Secondly, we just got to make sure that, that wholesale guarantee which allows the New Zealand subsidiaries in their own name to be able to raise capital to be able to operate and we've got work with, not because we are trying bailout the banks, no one should be under that illusion, but if they cant borrow they cant lend and our economy is going into depression if that is the case."

http://www.radiolive.co.nz/OnAirHosts/WillieandJT/AudioPodcast/tabid/172...
toggle about 1/3 way down, listen to part 2 from about 4.35

Ian just because you a

Ian just because you a socialist loser doesn't mean Jonhny should take responsibility like you said he would, as he never said he was responsible, did he, because you don't understand what the man is saying and you are just twisting things to make you feel better, your tone of calling him Jonny sounds like you don't like the man, well let me tell you that he is doing a better job so far of running the country (and the opinion poles back this) than any of your socialist twits could ever imagine. You should stick to your day job as I suspect that is one thing that you are probably good at, let the elected sort it out.

Rod - The thing that

Rod - The thing that slaveminded elitists hate the most is irrefutable facts. Rod the truth hurts I know, but I will not being going anywhere anytime soon, so you better grab yourself some panadol.

John Key was on the advisory board of the US FED (1999-2001) current owners of the Credit Creation Mechanism when they loaned the world more created credit at compounding interest than there was the resources of the planet to be converted into currency to be ever repay the issued debt.
He stated that Wall St over the period he described were responsible, not me;
John Key
"Relatively quickly, you had a massive expansion of credit over the last decade or two, so basically the banks have gone and Lent miles of money engaged in very risky behaviour, they have done it to to much of an extreme and whats happened is that eventually the chickens have come home to roost and its all imploded and yup, you know Wall St its got to take responsibility for its own excesses and its got it wrong"

You are right I do myself no favours in calling John- Johny and will from here on in refrain. I how ever wil not refrain from labelling him the central bankers favourite son because it is a very apt description.

Rod you will soon realise that unsupported vitriol will not stand up against the calibre of people you come up against on both sides of the debate on this site.

Whats your job description Rod?

I am proud to be a Truck Driver that has put thirteen years of study in on top of my Real World job to understand the deceitful mechanisms of the False World.

What I would like to see included in opinion polls would be how many people say none of them as an indication of those that have lost faith in the system.
Have a lovely day

Iain the truth doesn't hurt

Iain the truth doesn't hurt me, my job description is property developer, and the only place I see the dribble you support is by other people like your self who live in your so called False World, what a load of crap wake up Iain your're living in the Real World, under and over supply of credit amongst all things just creates cycles whether they be good, bad or worse, its just that most people call it an economic cycle, I think if you went and did some more historical study straight to the facts you might have found out about this in 13 weeks not 13 years as at that pace you must have missed it or didn't you look back very far.
The global melt down economically is just one of those bad cycles that will linger then things will improve, after all we cannot live in Boom times of inflated credit forever, image where we would end up if that continued.
The trouble today there is so/to many highly educated experts that their opinions just contradict one another but some will be right, just which one is anyone guess, they're the ones that should be taking the panadol along with you.
Have a great day also.

Now theres the thing Rod,

Now theres the thing Rod, sounds like you are the sought of chap who would only allocate 13 weeks to look into anything. The reason it took me a while to be as schooled up as I wanted to be before I entered the fray was the fact I had to do it whilst working on average 55-70 hours a week over that period, meaning I could not access the worlds greatest library, the internet, at will.
Look hard enough and you will find the so-called business cycle is far more rigged than it is random. If you do cotton on to that fact and then choose to feed off the fact like Snapper feeding under a shark frenzy without concern for the impact upon your society and all its citizen, you are a slaveminded elitist.
As to how far I have been back you can find out exactly that right here;
http://socialcreditorbust.blog.co.nz/authors%20bibliography/

Rod; You say above your

Rod;
You say above your a property developer, then what of this statement made by you;
http://www.interest.co.nz/ratesblog/index.php/2009/04/08/parliament-worr...
Rob Says:
April 8th, 2009 at 7:52 pm
Sounds like a bit of scare mongering from the Reserve Bank. As a credit officer with one of the "Aussie" banks I can say it's entirely wrong to suggest that the credit decisions effecting NZ business are being made from Australia. While there may be some element of truth to this at a corporate level, as far as your every day medium to large NZ company is concerned, which make up the bulk of the country's businesses, those decisions are being made right here. As far as access to credit is concerned, we're happy to lend to businesses in sound financial positions with sound business proposals.

Who are the majority stakeholders in Australian Banks Rob;
http://www.gwb.com.au/gwb/news/banking/wpac97.html

If you have integrity Rob, give us your full name so we can have a look at just who you work for and what you do?

Rod - Rob I have

Rod - Rob I have just realised my mistake. I do apoligise.

Iain least you apoligised for

Iain least you apoligised for you mistake, not many would be as so kind. I quite like the way you call me a Slave Minded Elitist, is that the same as a greedy capitalist. For you to suggest the Business Cycle is rigged I also find amusing. I think you socialist views are somewhat misleading you and I can only feel sorry for you having to spend 13 years studing and working 55-70 hours per week, isn't working all those hours putting you into the capitalist category ie. wanting money to get ahead shame on your socialist views. Although I take my hat off to you for your sheer determination.
I usually allow less than 13 hours to look into something, I have worked in an enviroment where fast decisions are necessary to succede, not the 13 weeks you suggest, I do perfer the Twelve Hour Policy myself.