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- 90 seconds at 9 am with BNZ 116
- Wednesday's Top 10 with NZ Mint 78
- Friday's Top 10 with NZ Mint 26
- Amanda's Take Five for Wednesday 19
- More bank mortgage rate cuts 16
- Govt lifts minimum wage 50 cts to $13.50 an hour 16
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- Full time jobs fall 13,000 in Dec qtr 14
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Top 10 links: Moody's review of Australian banks; Swiss banking woes;
Here are my top 10 links from the last 24 hours or so. I welcome your favourites in the comments below.
Perhaps we actually need to have coin operated machines to help restrict our savings. This from the often brilliant Rod Emmerson.

Moody's has said it will review the ratings of the big four Australian banks (Westpac, ANZ, CBA and NAB) because of the recent deterioration in the Australian economic outlook. But it pointed out the Australian banks (who also own Westpac, ANZ-National, ASB and BNZ here respectively) are among the strongest in the world and have actually gotten stronger in the last year because of extra Australian government support, successful capital raisings and the demise of rivals. Here's more details on businessspectator.com. The review's findings are due by early March.
The more I see of the banking system in Britain, Europe, the United States and the Caribbean (!) the more we should thank our lucky stars that our banks were too boring, too slow, too unsophisticated and too well regulated to have gone after the easy, stupid and dangerous money flying around in London and New York in the last decade or so. Our banks have borrowed from New York and London, but they didn't get too deeply involved in the sub-prime debacle or into investment banking. Lucky stars needed thanking.
You don't want to piss off these guys...
US and other authorities have been investigating Texan billionaire and cricket enthusiast 'Sir' Allen Stanford for 15 years, the TimesOnline reports. But the most interesting development is ABCNews' reports that the FBI have been investigating Stanford over connections to the notorious Mexican drug runners known as the Gulf Cartel.
Related Topics
Federal authorities tell ABC News that the FBI and others have been investigating whether Stanford was involved in laundering drug money for Mexico's notorious Gulf Cartel. Authorities tell ABC News that as part of the investigation, which has been ongoing since last year, Mexican authorities detained one of Stanford's private planes. According to officials, checks found inside the plane were believed to be connected to the Gulf cartel, reputed to be Mexico's most violent gang. Authorities say Stanford could potentially face criminal charges of money laundering and bribery of foreign officials.
No wonder Stanford is on the run and cannot be found. Update. CNBC say the FBI have found him. We'll have to keep a watch out for him down here. It would be hard to find anywhere further away from the drug cartels than New Zealand. I suspect he will have shaved off that silly moustache and be wearing a baseball hat. If you see him, don't make any sudden movements with anything that looks like a gun. He might get too much of a fright...
Swiss banking as we know it may be about to come to an end. The agreement by UBS this week that it will hand over the names of potential tax dodgers to US authorities and pay a US$780 million fine has shaken the Swiss. This from Business Week.
UBS and other Swiss banks are more and more going to be forced to earn their living from providing superior wealth management and other services and not just rely on the attractions of secrecy.
A trillion pounds of fresh public debt anyone?
A fascinating not-so-little story here from Britain about the Office of National Statistics deciding that partly nationalised banks Lloyds Banking Group and Royal Bank of Scotland should be counted as state-owned entitites and therefore their one trillion pounds of debt is counted as public debt. This adds about 70% to 100% of GDP to Britain's debt. Previously the public sector debt was 40.4% of GDP. This is in the Wall St Journal.
Dow at record lows as banks hammered
The WSJ's excellent marketbeat blog tells the story of the Dow's fall back into record low territory overnight, including the bath taken by banks on fears of nationalisations. Get it over with already. Kill the zombies.
US Finance company executives has said in a survey reported in WSJ.com that they don't see an economic turnaround until 2010. If the US is still in recession in 2010 then the rest of the world will probably still be recession. My pick is we are in for another full year of recession in New Zealand and may not see much growth in 2010. This will be a long hard grind characterised by increased savings, debt reduction, less consumer spending, higher unemployment, less investment in the short term and lower standards of living. My gut feel, given the scale of the deleveraging that needs to take place globally, is we are in for a decade of restricted growth and hopefully no worse than that.
It's all a communist (or capitalist) plot...
Poland's currency and economy is being slaughtered. Now there's a few people in Poland saying its a Russian or American conspiracy. This in FT's Alphaville. Here's Krzysztof Liedl, the head of Terroism consultancy firm Centrum Badań nad Terroryzmem.
This is a massive undertaking, and cannot be planned and in-acted without the help and cooperation of some sort of secret services. In cold war times both US and Russian agencies undertook this exact strategy against eachother: attacks on exchanges and financial markets.
Oh dear. Maybe the problem is 60% of Polish mortgages are denominated in Swiss francs....
Another sign of the times for old American newspapers. The New York Times has suspended its dividend to save US$34.5 million. Methinks the future of news is online, but I would say that wouldn't I... This in the WSJ.com
We talk a lot about Fonterra's problems. But one global food company that competes with Fonterra is doing very well despite the global economic grief. It sees organic (without acquisition rather than without chemicals) sales growth this year of 5%, the FT reports.
Bank of England Deputy Governor
Bank of England Deputy Governor comes clean about the risks to the UK economy:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aoU6VkHvLBnU&refer=home
------Bank of England Deputy Governor John Gieve said policy makers are fighting to protect Britain from the threat of a decade-long depression similar to that suffered by Japan in the 1990s.
"That is a risk," he said late yesterday during questions after a speech at the London School of Economics. "It's a serious risk but we are addressing it. There's a huge amount of policy easing in the pipeline. I don't think it's inevitable." --------
Mind you the only reason he HAS come clean is because they are having to justify resorting to the printing presses.......
so far ...banks,houses,cars,consumer shopping, farming,
so far ...banks,houses,cars,consumer shopping, farming, mining,shipping big in the news...next will be airlines and aircraft manufacturers in an uncontrollable tailspin...followed by tourism and hotels ? I posted a week ago that JAL were about to hold the begging bowl to the JP Govt.. Honda are backing away from their private jet manufacture...empty commercial buildings will be everywhere...No worry in NZ ....Fonterra will rent dry vacant buildings for storing cow powder,fairy dust and bullswool.
...so many debt ridden social and commercial implications rapidly unfolding....
Bernard - I thought you
Bernard - I thought you might have mentioned this one;
-Feltex tight lipped over CSFB names- http://www.stuff.co.nz/4853782a13.html
Seeking the underwriters and their counterfeit created credit!
Just what is it with these foreign companies operating anonymously in this country under exemptions handed down by one ex banker Jane Diplock Ceo of our securities commission.
What with every time the get caught on the take they claim not to recognise the law of our land, but that of theirs.
Check out the myriad of exemptions to our laws handed out to foreign/local speculators alike in this country, why the hell bother, just let um run a muck;
http://www.seccom.govt.nz/exemptions/en-01.shtml
Jane Diplock profile;
http://www.seccom.govt.nz/publications/bulletin/1001/index.html
and as we stand here losing our shirts as a nation where is our public defender of good, the silence has been deafening, she has just been announced as part of an international advisory group that will no doubt prescribe more of the same looking at the illustrious company she is keeping;
http://www.iasb.org/About+Us/About+Advisory+Groups/Financial+Crisis+Advi...
Then we move onto Nicki Crauford Ceo of the Directors Institute, another defender of the public good with foreign banking connections missing in action;
Nicki Crauford BSc (Hons), PhD, FIPENZ, FAICD, MInstD
Nicki has been Chief Executive of the Institute of Directors for four years. Previously she held senior executive positions in the oil, gas, electricity and banking sectors in the UK and in New Zealand.
Before joining the IoD, Nicki was with Transpower New Zealand for a period of nine years where she held several positions including General Manager Strategy.
Nicki is a director of Genesis Energy, one of the country's largest electricity generators and a director of the Centre for Advanced Engineering, a trust formed by the University of Canterbury to promote engineering. She has a Bachelor of Science in Chemical Engineering and a Doctorate in Engineering.
The Directors institute is fatally flaw in that it does not investigate the character of directors in this country until they have committed a misdemeanour, not as conditions of becoming a director. You can settle out of court as many times as you like for insider trading, Bob Jones comes to mind(public knowledge), and continue on your marry way because Cindy has stated that we have to be careful not to be that hard that we ruin peoples entire working careers.
9 years setting the strategy of Transpower, was this during the cross border leasing fiasco;
http://www.converge.org.nz/watchdog/11/06.htm
Surprise, surprise she organised the whole deal, toggle down to page sixteen;
http://www.ipenz.org.nz/ipenz/Publications/dimension/documents/Dim_April...
That was the Transpower cross boarder leasing fiasco that John Key described as the Labour Party's Winebox affair.
I dont know about you but I feel really protected by our PAYE funded central agencies.
Will PGG Wrightson need to
Will PGG Wrightson need to be rescued? The shareprice looks desperately ill:
http://www.nzx.com/news/markets/4854331
Down 50% in a week, ouch!
"This will be a long
"This will be a long hard grind characterised by increased savings, debt reduction, less consumer spending, higher unemployment, less investment in the short term and lower standards of living."
Bernard I agree wholeheartedly.
On the positive side we when we finally find our way out of the forthcoming lost decade, we will be inherently more "honest" people with a renewed focus on the important things in life - friends, family, community and sustainability. (Note , when I say "people" I mean all western, democratic, consumer economies.)
And for the record, I'm sensing a future low for the S&P500 of between 500-600 (including one notable 15-20% intraday drop). The NZD will be <USD40c by year end.
And to those that consider these projections to be alarmist, I encourage you to research the situation with an open mind, see both sides, form a conclusion and prepare yourself how you see fit. All the while hoping for the best.
Bernard, here's a doozy. http://cluborlov.blogspot.com/2009/02/s
Bernard, here's a doozy.
http://cluborlov.blogspot.com/2009/02/social-collapse-best-practices.html
I have Dmitry Orlov's book, and it's not as well done as this speech transcript.
My fave line:
"Right now the Washington economic stimulus team is putting on their Scuba gear and diving down to the engine room to try to invent a way to get a diesel engine to run on seawater."
Perhaps we need another cliche. Instead of 'Enjoy!', what aboot 'Commiserate!'
Oh, and of course one needs a bracing dose of John Robb as well.
http://globalguerrillas.typepad.com/globalguerrillas/
Commiserate!