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Video: Bill English selling NZ to save credit rating

Posted in News

Prime Minister John Key checked with bank CEOs last week about the health of our banks and Finance Minister Bill English is talking up New Zealand in a roadshow to bond investors.

Meanwhile, Australian PM Kevin Rudd has warned of the worst recession since World War II has tax revenues slump and house prices fall. The RBA is likely to cut its key rate 100 bps to 3.25% later today. This is all in Bernard Hickey's 90 at 9 morning briefing with ASB.

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment in the box on the right or click on the "'Register" link at the bottom of the comments. Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making these comments.

25 Comments

It all sounds a bit

It all sounds a bit like our government is concentrating on the equivalent of rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic. Are they ever going to get round to addressing the economy's key structural issues?

Does a laptop for less than the retail price of 4 Kg of cheese reflect a cheap laptop, or high cost cheese?

Peter... Your Titanic analogy is

Peter...

Your Titanic analogy is a good one....soon to go beyond "everyone off in an orderly fashion" to "every man for himself"....or are we there already and we just don't know it or more to the point, don't care?

Well, Mr English had better

Well, Mr English had better sharpen up his sales patter in foreign shores.

Today's NZD 500 million Treasury bill tender bid-to-cover ratio fell to a measly 1.324.

http://www.nzdmo.govt.nz/securities/tbills/latestresults

There has been a steady downward trend in bidders enthusiasm for New Zealand Government Treasury Bill issuance since late December when the bid-to-cover ratio was 3.81.

This is not surprising since net new T bill issuance over December and January has totalled NZD 2.35 billion while the yield has tumbled from 5.125% to 3.32%.

Furthermore, the collapse of the NZD/USD currency pair after S&P revised our foreign currency credit rating from stable to negative hardly inspires foreign purchasers.

http://www.omo.co.nz/nzd_value2_lv.gif

The combination of these factors will prove lethal and we can expect the government to pay through the swap rate as the enormous additional cost of bailing out our debtors and their bankers becomes apparent to all.

http://www.omo.co.nz/nz_government_tbills_vs_bank%20bills_lv.gif

This will prove to be the trigger for a steady upward move in yields as the inflationary impact of inefficient government deficit spending works it way through the economy.

Both New Zealand and Australian

Both New Zealand and Australian government officials would do well to read Mr Putin's illuminating and surprising comments presented at Davos.

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Speech-by-Russian-PM-Vladimir-Putin-to-the-World-E-$pd20090130-NRQ8F?OpenDocument

Stephen link has been removed

Stephen link has been removed but this from the telegraph

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/4436703/Russia-s...

Andrewj Sorry about that, try

Andrewj

Sorry about that, try this one - seems a question mark (?) was the only difference to the url I had originally cut and pasted from:

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Speech-by-Russian-PM-Vladimir-Putin-to-the-World-E-$pd20090130-NRQ8F?OpenDocument

The above url will not

The above url will not work when linked from this site. Sorry.

I'd love to meet the

I'd love to meet the person who put that speech together because it certainly wasn't Vlad.

I had to keep pinching myself to remind me this was a speech from a Russian PM.

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/

And then search under "Putin". It's the 3rd link down.

It's certainly worth a read because it exhorts the West to not react with more and more "stimulus" but to recognise the rubbish and put it out.

Russia advising against military build ups. Who would have though it?

Naturally it suits Russia's interest to take this viewpoint. I like this line

"The entire economic growth system, where one regional centre prints money without respite and consumes material wealth, while another regional centre manufactures inexpensive goods and saves money printed by other governments, has suffered a major setback."

The G20 summit in April is going to be a humdinger.

Putin should have addressed the

Putin should have addressed the speech: To the Coalition of the Willing.

:-)

Reading Putin's address certainly brings

Reading Putin's address certainly brings our leadership deficit into sharp focus.

You can find the speech

You can find the speech here

http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=12087&ref=patrick.net

Since the private banker and their subsidiary multinational corporation tag team descimated Russia by economic extortion with the assistance of several previous dodgy Roger Douglas like Russian administrations, culminating in the 1990s, Putin has done a good job at repatriating much of their natural resources for the benefit of Russians instead of bleeding profits to the bogus loans of the central banking network.
I think is speech shows a real maturity in diplomacy.
He will no doubt continue to be demonised by certain central banker majority stakeholder owned multinational corporate media vehicles.

If you wish to learn exactly what the bankers did to Russia, go to this site and toggle down to the Australian ABC doco called - Looting The Russian Economy
http://www.thedossier.ukonline.co.uk/video_drugsmoney.htm

Raf, Putin's speech is certainly

Raf, Putin's speech is certainly surprising and worth reading (yes, who wrote it?)

Although it is dangerous to highlight statements out of context, these jumped out......."Ladies and Gentlemen, we have so far failed to comprehend the true scale of this crisis" ...."it's high time we got rid of the virtual money"....." economic crisis could aggravate negative trends in global politics"

Tonz and all Look whats

Tonz and all
Look whats happened to our debt based spending (PSC, private sector credit) wow its dropped of a cliff.This is impressive stuff.Now I know why you cannot sell your car.

http://www.agprodecon.org/node/29

Yep Andrewj that links needs

Yep Andrewj that links needs to get read by the masses, it will over time. But it shows the beginning of the big big sliding spiral. Its a must read....

I have absolutely no problem

I have absolutely no problem that Putin did not write his own speech. Neither did anyone else there. But all the speechwriters will have been directed on what to write and the messages to communicate.

Putin strikes me as developing a better understanding of root causes than other politicians, and has come to the realisation that major structural and cultural changes are needed. Examples, somewhat disjoint:

1.
And, finally, this crisis was brought about by excessive expectations. Corporate appetites with regard to constantly growing demand swelled unjustifiably. The race between stock market indices and capitalisation began to overshadow rising labour productivity and real-life corporate effectiveness.

Unfortunately, excessive expectations were not only typical of the business community. They set the pace for rapidly growing personal consumption standards, primarily in the industrial world. We must openly admit that such growth was not backed by a real potential. This amounted to unearned wealth, a loan that will have to be repaid by future generations.

2.
This pyramid of expectations would have collapsed sooner or later. In fact, this is happening right before our eyes.

3.
One is sorely tempted to make simple and popular decisions in times of crisis. However, we could face far greater complications if we merely treat the symptoms of the disease.

Naturally, all national governments and business leaders must take resolute actions. Nevertheless, it is important to avoid making decisions, even in such force majeure circumstances, that we will regret in the future.

4.
Excessive intervention in economic activity and blind faith in the state's omnipotence is another possible mistake.

True, the state's increased role in times of crisis is a natural reaction to market setbacks. Instead of streamlining market mechanisms, some are tempted to expand state economic intervention to the greatest possible extent.

5.
The concentration of surplus assets in the hands of the state is a negative aspect of anti-crisis measures in virtually every nation.

6.
Nor should we turn a blind eye to the fact that the spirit of free enterprise, including the principle of personal responsibility of businesspeople, investors and shareholders for their decisions, is being eroded in the last few months. There is no reason to believe that we can achieve better results by shifting responsibility onto the state.

And one more point: anti-crisis measures should not escalate into financial populism and a refusal to implement responsible macroeconomic policies. The unjustified swelling of the budgetary deficit and the accumulation of public debts are just as destructive as adventurous stock-jobbing.

And how does what NZ is doing, or anticipating doing, compare against that?

PeterR I agree here is

Thanks for that link AJ.

Thanks for that link AJ. All I can write is WOW! I'm not so surprised at the numbers so much as by the incredible speed with which this is happening. If the late payout is an adjustment of the early payout then the price could push the $3 per level. This is going to devastate farm realty numbers, given that the shares go with the farm. It will be interesting to see who buys up distressed farms.

Yep, Andrew, great link .....

Yep, Andrew, great link ..... here we go ..... "notification gives only weeks to repay" ... no wonder Key wanted a private chat with the CEOs! Key needs to start thinking outside the square (ain't nobody on the outside gonna save us now!). So far - absolutely no sign of it.

"Extra Extraordinary Note - 13/01/01
As of early January, bank's withdrawal of lending facilities to agriculture has become widespread and in some cases very aggressive. ANZ National appears to be targeting all farm lending irrespective of the level of security held. Notification gives only weeks to repay and is coming from head office rather than local bank branches.

The impact is likely to be a drop in livestock prices as assets are liquidated. Sales of second properties, farm or residential, are inevitable. The impact on property prices could be dramatic given the shortage of finance available to prospective purchasers.

These changes will not be fully reflected in lending statistics until the RBNZ releases its bank SSR data at the end of March."

"And how does what NZ

"And how does what NZ is doing, or anticipating doing, compare against that?"

Well, leaders are quiet, but busy on their calculators, no doubt (it's too late Bill+John). We are just about full of compounded debt, international bankers will soon say "these guys have tanked, pull the funding, start our debt recovery".

What a mess.......

http://www.agprodecon.org/node/29 "growth in debt of

http://www.agprodecon.org/node/29

"growth in debt of $460 per property per day.....

....MAF data suggests only making $40 per day ....."

Thats a hole.....

You are not wrong Steve

You are not wrong Steve - we should start a sweep on predicted timing of the IMF takeover. JK does have one option - go against the tide, urgently reform our money system using Kiwibank as the retail vehicle and start concentrating on an internal production/consumption economy. In other words, they need to do the scenario planning for a self-sustaining economy. They should be purchasing stockpiles of drugs, medical equipment and other necessities not manufactured here, not building roads.

I think JK will let

I think JK will let the ag sector go down, he can do little else. Rural bankers I have been in contact with are busy crunching numbers, (to little avail). They are busy looking at propositions from other banks customers who need to get additional financing but can't do it from their own bank. Its a merry-go-round of pass the shaky budget/cashflow/forecast of farmers looking to keep their operations going. Every bank has customers that they wish they didn't have, and have supplied further credit on the basis that they must re-finance with another lender soon (or sell soon) neither of which looks likely.

Regardless of who owns what, and who owes how much, the NZ ag sector will continue to produce, its a biological system that knows nothing of ecomomics. We will still produce the commdities, we are just headed for a major correction of asset values to follow the commodity price correction.

Simple but ugly, high debt levels and lack of borrowing ability will force these asset price corrections down further than what would be considered "normal".

@Steve - I agree about

@Steve - I agree about your comment about ¨..NZ sector will continue to produce, it's a biological system that knows nothing of economics...¨

The only problem I have is who do you think will own the ag sector when it all goes bust, foreigners will all come in making use of the very low NZ dollar and buy up large. Our last remaining sector that is still substantially in the hands of NZ'ers will no longer be ours. How do we make good on the current account deficit then eh ?

What is the solution - bail out the farmers ??? It's hardly fair on all the other NZ'ers that have to wear debt deflation the hard way but the alternative is rather grim. Should we be treating the agriculture sector like the NZ equivalent of the UK/US financial sector?

What a dilemna we've gotten ourselves into !

I think we have to

I think we have to

1. I thrink the govt needs to only gurantee to three banks. One being kiwi bank and the other two being private banks. Possibly offer higher priced insurance for the other two main banks. Let the market take care of the rest.
2. The govt need to ressusitae the rural bank, stick it on the side of kiwi bank, and lend @ low rates on solid margins on production based only business.

This has happened before, in the 1930 depresion the govt (which was the only lender) wiped alot of debts to the rural sector. Some farmers got farms almost for free, where farmers only months before had huge mortgages and where forced to sell. Similar to the govt gurantees of today.

There are alot of options, but to be fair the market got us here and the market can take some of the heat on the way out.

Lets just hope that even at these lower pricing levels the world is able to continue to demand them, we need some volume of sales soon!!!!

Bill English is lashing out

Bill English is lashing out at Kiwibank for excessive mortage break fees. Regardless of this beeing correct or not, it's unusual for Minister to giving bad publicity to state owned bank, and at the same time not saying anything about most profitable company in NZ laying off hundredes of staff.
Was it him saying Kiwibank needs to be sold?