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Banks still growing farm lending fast, while business and housing lending flat to falling
Reserve Bank figures show banks lent an extra NZ$395 million to farmers in the month of December despite signs of a sharp slowdown in the key dairy sector and complaints from farmers that interest rates were too high.
However, lending to non-farm businesses fell NZ$68 million in December and mortgage lending growth to households was anaemic again at NZ$159 million or 0.09% from the previous month.
Credit growth to farming is still running at over 22% from a year ago, suggesting banks are either still confident in the outlook or have yet to reign their lending managers back in despite a more conservative stance in other sectors.
The full details in the sector credit figures are here.
There is also the possibility that heavy stock building of commodities in warehouses by Fonterra may be responsible for the sharp growth in rural lending as Fonterra pays cash to farmers for their milk but has yet to receive revenues from the commodities processed from the milk.
The growth also contrasts with the trends overseas where lending to businesses has either ground to a halt or is contracting.
Meanwhile, demand for PIE accounts in banks remained red hot in December with an extra NZ$256 million added to the accounts in the month, lifting the total to NZ$3.561 billion or 4% of total household deposits of NZ$89.6 billion.
This PIE growth represented 30% of total growth in deposits for the month.
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4 Comments
There is a different interpretation
There is a different interpretation of lending to agriculture, and indications of a sharp reversal in private sector credit here:
http://www.agprodecon.org/node/29
Anecdotally, banks have been forceful in their efforts to reduce lending to agriculture. That they continue lending likely reflects a reluctance to foreclose non performing accounts in a depressed asset market.
Any lending to Fonterra would not show as rural lending but under Food Manufacturing. That is a sector that is increasing its indebtedness possibly for the reason you suggest - stockpiling unsold commodites.
PeterR Very impressive analysis. Your
PeterR
Very impressive analysis.
Your contention that December farm lending was more than likely issued to capitalise failed interest payments does not augur well.
Seems to confirm your other published contention that no matter how low nominal interest rates fall, in a deflationary spiral, total debt servicing costs keep rising.
Compound interest destroys us individually and collectively in the longer run.
http://www.agprodecon.org/node/29 Everyone should look at
http://www.agprodecon.org/node/29
Everyone should look at this link it tells a frightening story.
thanks PeterR
Our subprime is rural finance.
Our subprime is rural finance. Over valued assets (farms), with poor incomes and high debt levels.
To get to current "bankable" levels for some properties, expect price contraction of over 50%.
You can apply some of the same principle of I.O.U.S.A to New Zealands increasing rural lend.
New Zealand agriculture debt is just starting to compound its way out of viability or any sort of realistic recovery. This applies to an increasing number of farming business. Will the givernment let it run it's course? Selling up any defaulters. Why shouldn't it? Will it have to bailout Landcorp? Anyone else?