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Opinion: Home or Away?: Investing the Cullen Fund

By NZ Business Roundtable executive director Roger Kerr
The New Zealand Superannuation Fund (sometimes referred to as the Cullen Fund) was established to partially pre-fund New Zealand Superannuation.
It was established on an arms'-length basis from politicians. Its Guardians are mandated to manage the Fund in a prudent commercial manner in order to maximise returns without taking on undue risk. The aim is to maximise its contribution to meeting future superannuation costs.
Many criticisms can be made of the scheme, and the Business Roundtable opposed it on the grounds that a preferable strategy was to continue to run down debt for a period rather than create an equivalent "˜cookie jar'.
One reason among others for doing so was the risk of political interference. It was naïve of finance minister Michael Cullen to think this would not happen. Similar funds elsewhere have routinely been raided for political purposes. The Rudd government in Australia already plans to tamper with the Future Fund established by the Howard government to underwrite public servants' superannuation.
There is no end to proposals for directing the Cullen Fund's investments: into infrastructure, renewable energy, venture capital and so forth.
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Recently, the New Zealand Exchange and the New Zealand Institute came out in favour of directing the Fund to allocate a greater proportion of its capital to domestic investment in the belief that this would boost our capital market.
One objection to this idea is that as soon as any binding restrictions are imposed on the Fund's portfolio allocation, the expected return is reduced for a given level of risk. It will make less of a contribution to the future superannuation burden.
Another is that it views the capital market in Fortress New Zealand terms. New Zealand is now part of the huge world capital market. The Cullen Fund is minuscule in world terms. Any investment it makes in New Zealand would otherwise have been made by someone else, assuming the project is sound. There is no shortage of capital for profitable investment projects in New Zealand, given good overall economic management.
But a more basic objection relates to how the Fund operates. Many people focus on the fact that only around 20% of the Fund is directly invested domestically, including in cash. But this is only a partial picture of where the Fund is invested. The reality is that most if not all of the money is effectively invested in New Zealand.
The explanation is straightforward. Most of the Fund's offshore investment is hedged back into New Zealand dollars. This is sensible because the ultimate New Zealand Superannuation liabilities are in New Zealand dollars.
According to the Fund's website, its long-term target for its net foreign currency exposure is only 10% (the current target is 13%). This means 90% is targeted for investment back into New Zealand.
How does hedging work? Fundamentally, currency hedging means borrowing short term offshore and investing short term in New Zealand, so that the net investment remains in New Zealand. The instruments commonly used to achieve this are forward contracts, but the counterparty still has to borrow offshore and invest the proceeds in a NZD investment.
To use a simple illustration, if the Fund hedges a $100 overseas investment back into NZD, the counterparty to the hedge will borrow overseas and invest $100 in New Zealand for as along as the hedge is in place. Typically this counterparty will be a local bank. As a result, the $100 would remain invested in New Zealand. All that happens is that the ownership of the $100 changes.
The upshot is that most of the Fund's capital is already invested in New Zealand. Of course, we don't know exactly where. That is up to the New Zealand banks or other financial institutions that accept the contracts from the forward contract counterparties.
Directing the Fund to allocate a higher proportion of its capital into direct New Zealand investments would just mean that the Guardians, rather than New Zealand financial institutions, would decide where the investments would go.
In fact, even the 10% of the Fund that is unhedged can be regarded as investment in New Zealand, given our floating exchange rate regime. If the Fund chooses to buy, say, Microsoft stock it must sell NZD to acquire US currency. If it sells to a New Zealand party, the money stays in New Zealand, and if it sells to an external party the NZD can effectively only be used for investment in New Zealand.
Any debate about the Fund's investment policy should start from a recognition of this reality. It should not start from the false proposition that the Fund is diverting capital that could be made available for productive investment in New Zealand.
There are other complexities but they do not alter the basic story. Competent economic journalists should have pointed out the fallacy long ago.
* Roger Kerr (rkerr@nzbr.org.nz) is the executive director of the New Zealand Business Roundtable.
7 Comments
Mr Kerr Are you saying
Mr Kerr
Are you saying the Cullen Fund is engaging in the mechamism of buying NZD on the forward foreign exchange market and being rewarded at the current time with a net 5.2806% annualised return based on O/N swap points against USD or something else?
¨..There is no shortage of
¨..There is no shortage of capital for profitable investment projects in New Zealand, given good overall economic management...¨
Really have you not heard of the credit crunch ?
¨..The upshot is that most of the Fund's capital is already invested in New Zealand. Of course, we don't know exactly where. That is up to the New Zealand banks or other financial institutions that accept the contracts from the forward contract counterparties...¨
We don't know where ? It's been invested (mostly) in bidding up the bricks and mortar of NZ's housing stock.
I have had some reservations about the Cullen fund for some time precisely for the reasons you've mentioned but a little bit of old fashioned direct investment might be what is required to get us out of the brown stuff here. After all the banks have proven themselves to be extremely adept in directing this excess capital on loans for NZ'ers to ¨enhance NZ's housing stock¨.
I suspect that finding ¨..profitable investment projects..¨ will be easier said than done given current market conditions.
Mr Kerr I did not
Mr Kerr
I did not expect you to answer my rhetorical question, above, in front of a long holiday weekend or otherwise.
I have, however, drawn my own long held conclusions based on your despcription of the New Zealand Superannuation Fund's hedging actvities.
I invite you and other readers to draw their own conclusions after reviewing Alert: 25/10/08, here: http://www.omo.co.nz/
Nice work Stephen, Are you
Nice work Stephen,
Are you talking about the $8.3 bln of fx fwrds with the NZDMO?
Raf The NZDMO $8.3 biilion
Raf
The NZDMO $8.3 biilion entry in the 2007 NZ Super Fund counterparty list is certainly part of the equation. View page 24 here: http://www.nzsuperfund.co.nz/files/2007%20Annual%20Report%20Financials.pdf
But just above is a claim that the notional amount of outstanding forward foreign exchange contracts is $13.048466 billion at balance date.
And yet in the 2008 report this amount has contracted to $8.183049 billion for the 2007 year. View here: http://www.nzsuperfund.co.nz/files/2008%20Annual%20Report%20Financials.pdf
An inexpiicable inconsistency for those of on the outside, but nevertheless, charged with the responsibility of payng for these sums with our taxes.
Starting as far back as May 2006, and possibly earlier, I contacted Andrew Turner. the Portfolio Manager at the NZDMO to offer an explanation of the other borrowing components in the Statement of Borrowings ledger found on page 24 here: http://www.treasury.govt.nz/government/financialstatements/monthend/pdfs...
I was positive this had something to do with cross currency basis swaps associated with a crown entity such as the NZ Superannuation Fund. I never received a satisfactory explantion from Mr Turner other than it is perfectly legal for the NZDMO to undertake derivative positions.
The bottom line is the NZDMO in conjuction with the NZ Superannuation Fund and possibly other entities take our NZD taxes (whatever the amount of billions it maybe)and pledge them to one or more of our trading banks in return for a foreign currency amount.
The currency is usually USD, borrowed by our local banks in the London commercial paper market. This action of swapping currencies through the mechanism of a cross currency basis swap with it's contingent interest payment liabilities is the so called foreign exchange forward position described by Mr Kerr and noted in the NZ Super Fund accounts.
It must be also noted that the currencies are swapped and later unswapped at the same exchange rate hence the use of the term of currency hedging.
The ledger entries of the various positions cause all sorts of different off and on balance sheet entries that are not all disclosed.
The collected NZD taxes are a government liability, but once lent to the banks they become an interest earning asset. Equally, the received foreign curerncy is an asset and yet there is a liability to pay the NZ banks USD debt servicing liability through the swap.
The end result is that all the foreign investment returns have to be adjusted for the cost of USD funding and offset by the NZD interest returns received from lending the NZD swap leg to the banks.
So in fact the NZ Super Fund/NZDMO is really asking New Zealanders to borrow their taxes, in the mortgage market as this is the only viable investment alternative, to fund a marginal return in foreign assets. As Mr Kerr points out, in a round about way ,the risk returns are highly skewed to one asset class in terms of return profile and credit risk.
Moreover, can our banks continue to borrow the USD to maintain the facade that the NZ Superannuation Fund is conducting a diversified asset investment programme.
Apparently not if we are to believe the RBNZ is planning to buy RBMS from our banks in it's open market operations. More detail on this latter revelation can be viewed in the second Alert dated 25/10/08 here: http://www.omo.co.nz/
Two quotes come to mind;
Two quotes come to mind;
"We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them"
--- Albert Einstein
"Oh what a tangled web we weave, When first we practice to deceive"
--- Sir Walter Scott
Opps The url reference to
Opps
The url reference to the 2008 NZ Super Fund accounts is page 35.
And all spelling errors are noted.