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90 seconds at 9 am with BNZ: Govt launches NZ$15 mln wages fund; Dow, NZ$ down on European fears; Gillard wins...just
Bernard Hickey details the key news overnight in 90 seconds at 9 am in association with Bank of New Zealand, including news the government has set up a NZ$15 million wages fund for small businesses in Canterbury who have been hit by the quake.
Small businesses without insurance can apply for up to NZ$350 per week per employee for up to 20 employees. The scheme lasts for four weeks. See more detail here.
Meanwhile, the Dow fell 107 points overnight as fears about Europe's financial crisis re-emerged. The reduction in global risk appetites helped push the New Zealand dollar lower too.
The WSJ reported concerns that the European bank stress tests were not as stressful as many had first thought and PIMCO's, the world's biggest bond fund manager, said it believed Greece would default on its government debt.
In Australia, Labor Prime Minister Julia Gillard has clung to power with the support of two independent MPS.
The Australian dollar immediately fell 0.8 USc to 91.1 USc on fears of renewed uncertainty, given the fragility of Gillard's coalition and the potential for another election soon.
The Australian stock market fell immediately on fears the Greens, who are now in the governing coalition, might push for a tougher mining tax.
Your view? We welcome your comments below.
59 Comments
New elections across the
New elections across the ditch within 6 months.
The real middle east war yet to kick off..... http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article22491.html
Nothing like a bit of
Nothing like a bit of military action to take your mind of an economic crisis just ask Margret Thatcher god bless the Argies & The Falkland War. 3 million unemployed in the middle and North of England,Scotland ,Wales and Northern Ireland in the early 80's. Everyone becomes patriotic and you get re-elected whilst economically devistating vast swathes of the country.
p.s. has any one worked out the costs of alternative energy developement as opposed to the costs of maintaining the U.S. millatary defense force
On the costs, I believe
On the costs, I believe so.....but the problem is two fold, 1) the problem is despite the sounds bites there is no viable alternative to oil....2) While moving to alternatives we still have to keep the oil....so what really needs to happen is we keep shooting the "locals" while we transition..........both need to happen so thats twice the cost
The funny thing is reading the JOE...the US military see a huge problem....
No one wants to spend the $ fixing it....though I suspect it isnt fixable....ie the non-negoitiable American way of life means more invasions and more US military abroad shooting the locals while the American way of life and indeed ours goes down the gurgler....faster and to a lower state than it needs to.
regards
On the 24th august Over
On the 24th august Over and above its usual fuel requirements .Israel ordered..60 million gallons of unleaded...284 million gallons of jp3 jet fuel and100 million gallons of diesel..Jp3 has a limited shelf life. So something seems to be in the wind..My guess is that, Israel has had enough....The attack on Irans Nuclear reactor....Might cause the Gulf to be closed to shipping. So Oil disruptions are likely..... George Soros has doubled his gold holdings.and Kiwiland wont look so bad.
How many of the governments
How many of the governments SCF "assets" in Canterbury region have reduced in value since Saturday - ie David Hendersons SO hotel? Recoveries from SCF asset sales now likely to be way off target?
I understand there is some
I understand there is some damage to David Hendersons SOL Square buildings, although I spoke with some tenants in one similar nearby stregthened commercial building which was pretty well intact and fine to reoccupy.
Chancery Lane looks a bit wobbly and is cordoned. I'm not sure how many of other buildings he has left. A lot of SCF assets seemed to be vacant land - the land around the city centre seems ok compared to other parts of the city where rebuilding may never happen. I'm not sure what will happen to land values. Thousands of vacant sites will be created in the suburbs but many of those may never be rebuilt on.
Good land may become more valuable? It depends what happens with insurance payouts - most middle and cheaper homes in Christchurch have a total capital value only around the replacement cost of the house alone despite most of the value being in the land. Hence we may see insurance companies wanting to make payouts for the market value of the property than dispose of the land so who knows what will happen with prices.
The real question is will the population of Christchurch remain? With tens of thousands of houses wrecked many will consider leaving once they get insurance. The government needs to create incentives for people to rebuild and not take the cash and run.
On another note, I would like to thank the ASB who sent out messages to all business clients offering financial assistance if needed. New Zealand cannot afford to let Christchurch and Canterbury's economy lie in ruin.
Another welcome and
Another welcome and incisive update, Chris_J. Good to see you appear to be keeping your spirits up in what you report as a sombre situation.
Chris_J Many thanks again
Chris_J
Many thanks again for the detail and insight.
cheers
Bernard
Thanks Chris- good to read
Thanks Chris- good to read competent comments.
Hopefully the new buildings especially in the heart of Chch are well planned and designed, so they fit into an overall harmonious, attractive architecture style of the “Garden City”.
The Hong Kong company hoping
The Hong Kong company hoping to buy 16 Crafar farms has shelved its ambitious plans to spend up to $1.5 billion setting up a dairy business in New Zealand
Is it not logical to assume
Is it not logical to assume the CCcouncil will be forced to refuse all applications to rebuild on what has proved to be unstable and dangerous ground....and how much of the city must now fall into that zone....and where will the rebuilding take place....It must be assumed this new fault line could remain active for hundreds of years.
How many will take the insurance and leave?.....quite a few I would say. The city may well not get the rebuilding activity first thought to be probable. I suspect a good number will move down to South Canterbury.
The last couple of
The last couple of aftershocks according to TVNZ's website were centred 10km SE of Chch - that's under Lyttleton Harbour (virtually in the greater city area) and both very shallow at 5 and 6km.
My stepson rang in from his
My stepson rang in from his work at Rick Armstrongs. Even a resilient young 19 y.o. is starting to feel the pressure of the uncertainty of 'when' is the next one. The Diamond Harbour one was disturbing, even for him.
Speaking as someone who lives
Speaking as someone who lives in Diamond Harbour, Nicholas, I can confirm the disturbance :) That had a bigger effect on us than the 7.1.
The worse thing for me in all this is that I'm behind on work, but my office is downstairs, and after this mornings shocks I don't feel much like working down there, strangely enough. I think we may take off to the Sounds this afternoon: I thought I was a 'pretty tough bloke', but these after-shocks are becoming bloody unnerving. It I take my laptop, I can probably get more work done away from here, and more importantly, get some sleep.
An hour ago we said goodbye
An hour ago we said goodbye to a couple from Chch, who stayed in our apartment, but couldn’t stand the frustration of the situation in Chch anymore. Living near the airport the stress of the reminder of the first earthquake became too much. They are now driving up to Blenheim visiting his brother.
To provide some relieve for Christchurch people my wife and I decide to rent our 2 apartments for $ 60.-p/n and the smaller for $ 50.-p/n for the next 3 weeks. So, in case you need a good break, relaxation and a peaceful sleep, please have a look under www.goldart.co.nz
Lol - way to make the most of
Lol - way to make the most of bad situation.
Whats this about the smell of
Whats this about the smell of sulphur in the air around Christchurch?
Don't worry, the Banks
Don't worry, the Banks Peninsula volcano is well extinct :)
Apparently when the ground opens up it often lets go deposits of gases ... who'd a thought. Although I suspect some are just smelling ruptured sewage lines.
I'm taking the pooch for a walk soon - we're not escaping to the Sounds, and I've flagged work for the day. I'm hoping to come across some newly revealed gold deposits.
There is heaps of land out
There is heaps of land out west of the city that is not sand or swamp. They need to get busy on freeing up that land for residential and forget about thier BS invisible red line and trying to get us to be all cool all to move into the inner city. Damn glad I never moved out of the suburbs into one of those inner city quake-bait traps!
I'll bet Bob Parker will be
I'll bet Bob Parker will be happy about his purchase of the Henderson properties now!
It may be cheaper to lay new
It may be cheaper to lay new infrastructure (water, waste, etc) to "better" land, than to repair old infrastructure.
Some tough choices.
This is much tougher than
This is much tougher than expected if so.
"Germany's Die Zeit newspaper reported on Monday evening that a draft of the finalised package showed banks will have to hold Tier 1 capital of nine per cent, including a three per cent so-called "conservation buffer. At least five per cent of Tier 1 would have to be in the form of pure equity or retained earnings ... The current Tier 1 ratio minimum is four per cent, with a core pure equity minimum of two per cent."
As an outsider who happened
As an outsider who happened to be in Chc for the weekend i've been impressed by the resolve of the cantabrians. On the plus side, a lot of old shitty building are gone, on the downside, the scale of the damage is hard to get your head around.
A big quake takes minutes, the aftershocks take days or weeks, the rebuilding will take years, and the memories will last decades. They have to keep an eye on the opportunities this presents in terms of rebuilding plant and infrastructure and probably even be prepared to make some big calls.
'old shitty buildings'
'old shitty buildings' ?
Hmmmm I am not sure CChurch residents would think kindly of you for that statement - it is the large number of older building which gives the city its 'feel' - in contrast to the ghastly homogenous strip mall that characterises so much of new development in other NZ towns.
Agreed. The real talent is
Agreed. The real talent is found in those who can recreate/rebuild the look/style/feel, but to modern specs.
rather than
"Monuments in mirror glass
To cities on the make
Gloss".
Ok andy that might have been
Ok andy that might have been a bit blunt but you get my drift right?
Canty is no different to a lot of nz where we have old building with lots of probs (including draughty ponsonby villas etc) .
I lived in s.korea for a while, and some (not all) koreans would say they were happy about the korean war because it gave them a chance to rebuild in such a way as to be able to succeed in the 21st century, even though at the time it was not exactly a holiday.
ps did anybody see the hilarious peice by Libertarianz asking the govt not to give cantabrians any money? ideology over reality eh?
anybody got any thoughts on
anybody got any thoughts on the ramifications for the NZ property market, if there is an exodus from ChCh of residents with demolished homes etc?
Exiting dwellers won't have
Exiting dwellers won't have all that much to pay for a replacement property elsewhere. So lower prices I guess. Many older houses in Chch. have negligable building value ( it's land value at best for many of the 70 y.o. weaherboarders) and so I guess that's what the insurance company will give them. And who will want the vacant land now?
What will mortgage holder do
What will mortgage holder do if they can't sell their "now vacant" land? They would need to sell their land in order to pay of any mortgage and they may be left with no choice but to rebuild in order to realise full value of the asset.
If land values have dropped - due to local infrastructure damage and/or less demand - there might be even further problems.
Anon at 11.44a.m. You
Anon at 11.44a.m.
You shouldn't comment until you know what you are talking about.
Most of the property covered under the EQC will be covered for replacement value going on square metreage and not on value of the building.
Poster at 4:49 p.m. is not
Poster at 4:49 p.m. is not the real THe Man. Lame imposter. When is BH going to fix this mickey mouse web site?
We moved to registered
We moved to registered comments only from this Sunday.
A reminder to all unregistered comments to use the box on the right to register to comment.
cheers
Bernard
Likely as not Rob they will
Likely as not Rob they will opt to stay in Canterbury but further south. Look for prices to rise all the way down to Timaru. Maybe NZR could do some work on whether they could run commuter specials. High speed rail mainland style...40kph!
What will they pay those
What will they pay those higher prices with? Their investment capital has proabably been severely damged along with whatever it was they lived in till now. Maybe relatively, if you choose, say, Waimate, but not generally.
are there many farms damaged?
are there many farms damaged? ie big centre-pivot irrigated farms that are no longer flat or stable?
Federated Farmers reported:
Federated Farmers reported: Physical inspection by elected members and Field officers is revealing substantial damage to shelter belts and to fences. There is also a major issue with pastures with movement of between one and three metres on some properties and cracks of up to a metre wide and several metres deep.
MAF estimates 3-400 farms are affected with 100-150 seriously affected. One of the problems for farmers is the shifting/contamination of underground water systems. In some cases farm wells are now dry. Also there appears to be sediment in some water. Irrigators would not usually be deployed yet, though there may be exceptions.
Fed Farmers are collating a database of rural people able to offer accommodation to Christchurch urbanites.
Fonterra has donated $1million to the Mayoral Relief Fund and has asked that some of it be tagged for rural communities.
That thought crossed my mind
That thought crossed my mind Rob..a mate that was looking at a section in Kerikeri..found it had just gone up 10k..thats from a week ago,when he last looked. Be ready for a boom beyond the Brendurwins.Comparativly safe from Earthquakes..no winter..and the best beaches in the world.If it happens it wouldn't be before time.
Not to mention the people who
Not to mention the people who are just renting and maybe no longer have employment in the area? a move north to Auckand or elsewhere perhaps? Watch the rents go up where ever they flock to...
Christchurch will soon have
Christchurch will soon have its replica chimney tops just like wgtn!...and there is scope for a business chance here...fake facades Ltd. You can have brick..or stone...or go for the colonial look with pit sawn lumber. Most of wgtn has no idea their heritage wooden pile is topped with fakes. A bit like the Beehive when you think about it.
Even scope for gargoyles....think of all those Labour pollys...!
So true Wolly...I can't watch
So true Wolly...I can't watch the news now without thinking we are an incredibly
unattractive lot. Every female news person has jaw disfunction and the politicians
are gruesome to behold. (sorry.. really off topic!)
Thanks for the laugh :)
Thanks for the laugh :)
Heres another off
Heres another off topic...George Soros has just doubled his gold holdings.
The banks are being real
The banks are being real about their earthquake help packages: half an hour on the phone to the ASB and I've got a mortage holiday and overdraft arranged; both for if we need it. The woman said the phones are hotting up today and they expect lots by end of the week/next week.
My husband's work building was condemned, then a maybe we''ll go back, and now needs to be reassessed after today's one. The back-up plan has been demolished and the temporary meeting place was inacessible. A lot of confusion for CBD workers and businesses.
Elley: Time out now looks like a great idea!
Ruru, glad you could organise
Ruru, glad you could organise this, at least you'll have some peace of mind on that side of things. My husband expected the building of the company he is a consultant for to be damaged as well. They're in Tuam St and it's an old building but it turned out to be business as usual for them on Monday. Still I'm very glad that he's working from our home office, wouldn't want him to be in Chch and away from me and the kids, especially with having to go over the Waimak bridge to get there.
Time out, yep, just had some. Played the piano for a while, it's therapeutic for me. I'd been a bit worried about it falling over (200kgs, I don't think a few nails in the Gib board to hold it would do the trick) so had been avoiding it but can't see myself keeping away from it for weeks.
FYI, earthquake related Force
FYI, earthquake related Force Majeure at the Port of Lyttelton
http://www.nzx.com/markets/NZSX/LPC/announcements/4108298/Solid-Energy-F...
What about the owners of
What about the owners of property wrecks, come the next rates demand!
heh, yes, will the council
heh, yes, will the council now be allowing instant revaluations, and deductions for lack of service
i s'pose The Man or whoever
i s'pose The Man or whoever those ChCh PI's were ,will start crowing about how smart they were buying rentals in ChCh of late?
His comments have been
His comments have been noticably absent of recent days. Frankly, I hope he's okay. It's all very well to lose on an investment. But this is not a nice way to do it. After all, he is one of our ' interest.co.nz community'.
Rob of the North. I am the
Rob of the North.
I am the original "The Man"
Thank you for your concern as usual.
I haven't been on here for awhile but had to respond to your concern for property investors in Ch.Ch.
Yes it has been a scary time for all involved. However as a responsible and professional investor I have personally inspected all my properties twice since Saturday including today.
For two reasons safety for my tenants and secondly as they are my asset.
I have double figure no. of properties and from both internal and external viewings there is no damage to any whatsoever.
None of the properties are located in the badly affected areas.
Yes, they are all fully insured as well if anything does happen in the future.
how are them sour grapes
how are them sour grapes tasting rob of the north?
Poster at 4:27 p.m. is not
Poster at 4:27 p.m. is not the real The Man. Lame imposter. That is why I don't come here much any more.
They are all in Christchurch
They are all in Christchurch which is going to have it values punished no matter what happens.It pays to diversify with banks and the type and location of investments.
What is your reasoning for
What is your reasoning for property values being punished?
Yes certain areas will be affected no doubt.
The areas where there has been no damage to property is going to be more desireable.
There is also going to be a shortage of good rental property as well.
Many of the damaged homes will be replaced with new which will hardly reduce prices.
Give me your expert opinion and qualifications.
I agree The Man! It's great
I agree The Man!
It's great to see you back here again!
You are the only person with a clue on this website.
In my opinion the government will free up restricted and wasted crown land in Canterbury and rebuild much of Christchurch there.
Every one knows that property prices are on the way up again and the earthquake just makes price rises even more likely!
RPIT. Good to see you are
RPIT. Good to see you are still around as well. You have probably been on under anonymous.
I get brassed off by a clown on here who has registered under "THe Man" The Man Is Back" etc. and then says that I am an imposter.
That is why I haven't been on but I read the journalist bits.
Christchurch is a bit of a mess in some parts but it will bounce back.
Old will be replaced with new and many will be better off and some won't.
There will be plenty of work around which is always good for the economy and all the money spent will still be in the economy.
At least no deaths.
This is from the origional "The Man" from Christchurch and not some clown who says that I am an imposter!!!
I haven't registered under any name
The Man's Back at 4.50pm You
The Man's Back at 4.50pm
You are an absolute clown.
You register my name and then try to say that I am the imposter. Get a life. This is why I haven't been posting.
I make a comment and then you just have to come on and try to be smart. Yeah real great joke again.
I'm off again. Have fun
P.S. Yes you will come on again with something smart and say that you are the real man.
I'm over it.
Better things to do including protecting family and assets.
Cheers
Yes I agree it's very
Yes I agree it's very frustrating when people pretend to be me.
ha ha ha...hell knoweth no
ha ha ha...hell knoweth no fury like The Man scorned ?!