Oh my,  the Hubbard cultists will have a field day with that story if it comes to fruition - no doubt they will maintain the charges were trumped up so the government could wrest control of the glittering financial jewel that is SCF from him........

Excellent piece from Calculated risk as to why the next leg downwards in the US housing market is in the process of starting:

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/08/regional-reports-home-sales-fe...

Falling house prices are of course immensely beneficial to the US economy as a whole (just impersonating a CNBC talking head for a moment).

Anyone see any similarities with the NZ market in the way that inventory build up is about to lead to further house price falls?

Residential vacancies are falling and rents are rising in Australia. Unemployment is low, the economy is growing, fiscal policy is loose and interest rates are on hold. Net migration is massively high by international standards, and the Aussies spend their money on larger, better built and better appointed houses than in New Zealand.

Maybe there is a bubble, and maybe not.  But it is hard to see what is going to prick it at this stage, unless there is a massive macroeconomic shock from China.  Given your point 6 above, this seems unlikely.

Re the house price warnings in Australia, go to the Sydney Morning Herald and you will also see articles on rising rents and complaining would-be tenants who are struggling to find houses and units to rent.

Why wasn't this also highlighted by interest.co.nz? Changes the outlook somewhat me thinks.

Even Dr.Don  Brash of the North..well Orewa anyway..says PI is stuffed

from the landlords site today:

Dr Don's gloomy outlook for house prices

The world economy looks sick and if that continues it is hard to see house prices going up according to managing director of Huljich Wealth Management Dr Don Brash.

Speaking at the New Zealand Mortgage Brokers Association (NZMBA) conference about house prices, Brash says over the last three years the median house price has moved around for a small upward movement - which looks encouragingly stable.

However, he says household sector debt has grown enormously over the last 30 years from 40% at the beginning of the 80s to 160%, which means it has increased fourfold.

He says household sector debt service has also risen, though not as much because of lower interest rates, but would rise further if interest rates increase.

Brash says net immigration which has traditionally been a big driver of increases in house prices also now looks soggy.

He also acknowledged that Government policy threatens house prices in three ways:

• Reduction in top personal tax rate from 38% to 33% reduces the attractiveness of losses arising from property investment
• Inability to claim depreciation on buildings which have a life of more than 50 years also reduces the attractiveness of property investment
• A government-appointed advisory group has been looking at the effect of Metropolitan Urban Limits (and similar restraints) on the price of residential land – which might lead to a change in policy which frees up supply of residential land.

The Economist has also suggested that many housing markets remain overcooked, with New Zealand fourth on the list with 23.7% overvaluation in house prices.

He says when you look at the path of real house prices in New Zealand since 1970 it's easy to be pessimistic and if the public thinks it couldn't see a big fall in real house prices in New Zealand, all it needs to do is look at the example of Japanese real land prices which have been declining since 1990.

Meanwhile across the ditch those sneaky ole Landlords are at it...big time?Housing bear warns again of bubble waiting to burst  august 18, 2010

AN ARMY of loss-making landlords threatens to deflate Australian house prices, posing a risk to economic stability, a leading analyst has warned.

Morgan Stanley's equity strategist, Gerard Minack, has joined a growing number of observers to claim house prices are a bubble that has raised the level of risk in the economy.

While local house prices have defied global trends in recent years, Mr Minack argued their explosion in the past decade had forced them well beyond ''fair value''.In a note to clients yesterday, he argued measures of value - such as house prices compared with rental returns or household disposable income - suggested they were overvalued by 35 to 50 per cent.While this claim echoes recent concerns from abroad, such as those made by the Economist magazine and US hedge fund investor Jeremy Grantham, Mr Minack's view differed through its emphasis on an ''army of loss-making middle class landlords''.According to Tax Office figures, the proportion of taxpayers who own rental property has swelled from 6.5 per cent in 1989 to 13.5 per cent in 2009, two thirds of whom claim a loss on their investments.

Mr Minack, who has long been concerned over the level of debt in Australia, said 80 per cent of the owners of these loss-making properties earned below $80,000. He said this debunked the ''myth'' that most debt was held by high income earners who could withstand shocks to income.

The strategist said a long period of flat house prices could prompt swathes of property investors to sell out, driving down prices.

This represented a more imminent threat than a wave of job losses, which looks unlikely in the mining boom. But unlike other housing bears, he said any fall in prices was likely to be gradualthan sudden.

''Dodging the worst of the global financial crisis didn't demonstrate that there's no bubble. In my view it just showed that we dodged the prick,'' the note said. ''However, the risk of big price declines in the near-term seems low.''Mr Minack's view contrasts with many economists, who say house price increases reflect a shortage of supply amid surging demand.

The property boom has been especially pronounced in Melbourne, where the median house price has nearly doubled this decade. Sydney prices have risen more modestly, including a slump after 2004 before a surge last year.RP Data figures showed a slight fall in June after 17 months in a row of increases.

That plane painting movie is cool.

No wonder they went broke in NZ. Imagine all the wages to just re-paint it.

Collateral damage as they say!...what will happen to equities in aus when the bubble goes pop?

and what will that do to the au$....and unemployment numbers....and the fiscal deficit over there...

and who will bail out the big four....and what will it all mean for Noddylanders?

If people sit on their handsfor next 5 years and don't buy, does that mean more demand for rentals in the meantime?

Anyone thinking there will be a utopia at the end of the road, need only go read all the stuff on this link:

http://money.msn.co.nz/blog.aspx?blogentryid=493108&showcomments=true

[I'm in the Marlborough Sounds and have very limited Internet access until next week, but I'll break my 10mb a day for this.]

Is no one else worried when they read this sentence about the current SFO investigation of Allan Hubbard, quote:

The source understood in return [for relinquishing his business empire to the State] Hubbard would not face any charges that may arise from the current Serious Fraud Office investigation into his affairs initiated two months ago.

There's only two ways to interpret that.

a) A government that begins an investigation - on for all we know trumped up charges - then says, 'oh, we'll drop the investigation, but, in return for this you have to hand us your business empire'. That level of corruption - and what else is that? - is just one tiny step away from outright totalitarianism whereby the State simply takes an individual's property without first bothering to invent the trumped up charges.

Or b) And remembering I'm a very much the Allan Hubbard Supporter, it's saying the State to turn events to its advantage can completely interfere with the legal process to the point it would let an individual off with what it has been intimating is a 'complex and intricate' fraud.

If there is fraud here, then AH should be tried. No government of a 'free' country can have the power to override the rule of law as this single sentence signifies.

Yet no member of the MSM has even highlighted this sentence as unusual? It's a stunning sentence in it's implications.

As stated, I have only limited Internet access, I cannot respond further to this post

re # 5 about the idiots who shut down the wind farm while trying to steal the copper.

Have people no respect for property anymore. Why do a few think they can just help themselves to whatever they want. What a low down selfish ferral attitude some people have. I hope they get caught and I hope they get publicly ridiculed for their anal attitude to life in New Zealand.   New Zealand is no place for the likes of these people, they don't deserve the privilege. Idiots !

Right then....time for some advice to big Gerry....you awake there Gerry?...set up an SOE with instructions to plan for the export of containers of fresh water. Have the containers designed to match the existing sizes so that existing systems can be utilised at each end of the trade. Start with the water wasted down in Fiordland. Use standard container ships so that return cargo can be found. In emergencies NZ will be able to donate this resource but the primary goal is to earn export loot from a never ending resource.

Just as we imagine in science fiction what the future will look look like we imagine what our finance companies will look like in the future and the picture is not pretty. So I say to all those smug finance company investors don't shoot Mr Lee as he has more of a futuristic imagination than you will ever have.

water under the bridge, Wally

There is no value to society from rising house prices. It is simply a wealth transfer to existing owners from potential buyers. Pumping up house prices creates no more wealth than the Reserve Bank printing an extra six zeros on every piece of currency.

Worse, by increasing the leverage in the household sector and financial system, it increases the financial risks in the economy, as the last ten years have demonstrated .

i'm glad things are going down price-wise and i very much doubt  a major increase in rent will occur as market forces will dictate...eh, Wally!

It's not bloody rocket science, just common knowledge.....so why do we read this on a very very recent article at marketoracle uk........." The BoE governor wrote yet another full of excuses letter to the Chancellor, Alistair Darling as to why the Bank of England is failing in its primary objective of controlling inflation."..... http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article21973.html

Makes you wonder what sort of an education these people have had.....and spare a thought for

the  Chancellor, George Osborne. !!!!!

That PI survey was BIG news. It shows that even PI's are capable of rational behaviour. On the whole property is a crap investment. This will markedly reduce buyer demand. PI's aren't buying, young people aren't buying (houses are stilltoo unaffordable) and the BBs aren't buying (they are hunkering down in their existing homes and getting rid of debt), and as supply to the market remains stable or rises, that can only mean one thing....... 

From the "DAILY MASH"

INFLATION TO CONTINUE DOING A VARIETY OF THINGS, SAYS BANK OF ENGLAND

17-08-10

BRITAIN faces several more months of inflation doing things before eventually deciding to do some other, equally interesting things, the Bank of England warned today.

Issuing his latest inflation report, Bank governor Mervyn King said: "VAT - that's one of the things - then of course there's all the oil and gas, the cars, the food - let's not forget the food. So basically, yes, all those sorts of things... obviously.

Holding up a graph he had drawn on some paper, he added: "Quite possibly up for a while then along in a straight line for a bit before heading down, then up again, then down again.

"Or it could be more of a zig-zaggy kind of thing, depending on a wide variety of factors which you simply would not understand and so there is no point in me wasting my breath with a lot of technical what-nots and doo-das.

"Suffice to say, we have established beyond doubt that inflation exists and almost certainly has something to do with money."

Meanwhile chancellor George Osborne told city analysts that he had a funny feeling that everything was going to be just fine.

He said: "I've been looking at all these charts and they just look really nice. All we need now is for the Under-flationary McPherson Exchange to keep pace with the, er, Johanssen Index of Surplus... Trade... De-Balancing?

"And also people should buy loads of shit and stuff."

The City welcomed the chancellor's comments. Julian Cook, chief economist at Donnelly-McPartlin, said: "This graph looks a bit like a mountain. What's the one in Switzerland? Not the Eiger, the other one. I wonder why it decided to look like that? Fascinating."

Mr King added: "Sweet Jesus, I've just noticed the price of eggs. How the f..k did that happen?

"That's it, I am buying a chicken."

From the NZX ( a.k.a. Weldonia Central ) a small Chch software company Emendo has signed a $ 2.5 m contract with 6 Vancouver ( Canada ) hospitals , to supply CapPlan , a package which assisted administration of staffing levels . Used successfully in Chch , the local DHB claims to have saved $ 2 m. over 4 years . Emendo employs 45 staff in Chch .

Huh ! A good news story . Kiwis being clever .  No mention of housing .  No bubbles . No gloom & doom  ......................... Go figure .

No wonder this news  didn't rate a mention hereabouts .