Barfoot & Thompson's median selling price now 9.3% lower than November 2021 peak

Property / news

Barfoot & Thompson's stock levels at 11-year high for time of year, selling prices falling

2nd Jun 22, 10:54am by Greg Ninness

The latest sales figures from Auckland's largest real estate company suggest the city's housing market is likely entering a serious winter slump.

The average and median selling prices of residential properties sold by Barfoot & Thompson in May were both well down from last year's highs, while sales number were at a 14 -ear low for the time of year, and stock levels at an 11-year high.

Barfoot's median selling price was $1,125,000 in May, down $115,000, or 9.3%, from its November 2021 peak. The average selling price was $1,189,779, down $88,868, or 7.0%, from its December 2021 peak.

The agency sold 782 residential properties in May compared to 1197 in May last year, a decline of 34.7%. Apart from May 2020, which was severely affected by pandemic restrictions, that was the lowest number of sales Barfoot & Thompson has achieved in the month of May since 2008.

At the end of May Barfoot & Thompson had 4701 residential properties available for sale, up 50.6% compared to May last year. That means Barfoot's stock of homes, or inventory, for sale is the highest it has been at the end of May since 2011.

"Sales prices are definitely starting to fall, but not dramatically," Barfoot & Thompson managing director Peter Thompson said.

"May sales results show vendors are accepting that if they want to sell, they must reappraise their price expectations, while buyers are realising that prices are not falling off the cliff edge."

"The combination of solid new listings, modest sales and lower month end listings indicates that some vendors not able to achieve the price they want for their property have delisted rather than lower their asking price," he said.

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125 Comments

by King of the whiners | 2nd Jun 22, 10:58am 1654124335

''Sales prices are definitely starting to fall, but not dramatically," Barfoot & Thompson managing director Peter Thompson said.''

''Barfoot's median selling price was $1,125,000 in May, down $115,000, or 9.3%, from its November 2021 peak.''

One of these things is not like the other..............

by Miguel | 2nd Jun 22, 11:56am 1654127775

Anyone who has looked at how other housing bubbles have unwound (Ireland, Spain, Japan, US) the common theme is they take years. In Ireland, Spain and the US, monthly falls were generally around 1% per month. They only exceeded 2% for a couple of months for Ireland (which topped out at about 2.5%). But the falls were slow and steady and it took years for prices to stop falling (US 1.5 years, Ireland 6 years, Spain 7 years, Japan 20 years).

New Zealand MoM prices are already falling faster than at any point in the US/Spain housing bubbles. Its actually happening relatively fast. There is no guarantee that the falls will continue, but when people try to dismiss the speed of current price falls as "insignificant" it shows they haven't studied other housing corrections.

The most worrying part is interest rates peaked in other housing bubbles BEFORE prices started falling, and interest rates fell to help cushion the speed of the price decline. We are seeing prices falling before rates have even peaked.

by Smudge02 | 2nd Jun 22, 12:12pm 1654128723

Hence the reason a recession is locked in.

by tothepoint | 2nd Jun 22, 5:41pm 1654148500

Prices are about where they were in August 2021.

No big deal. The downturn in the market is far less dramatic than the previous upturn.

TTP

by Brock Landers | 2nd Jun 22, 5:52pm 1654149166

There is still plenty of room for downward valuation.

Be quick to offload the penthouse.

by Crazy Horse | 2nd Jun 22, 6:38pm 1654151907

BL - if you look at the bigger picture, the whole western world is riddled with debt that will never be paid back .....but I can assure those Wall St banks will not miss out on an opportunity ! ......The US big banks own 25% of the Aussie banks ....so they will be knocking on our Aussie mates door ......then there will be a few phone calls across the Tasman ........ that's why "at the moment" when the SHTF with the world's economy, the USD strengthens......big question is there will be a "reset" - but what will that look like ....... that's the big question ???

by HouseMouse | 2nd Jun 22, 12:34pm 1654130053

Nice, Miguel.

of course, Mr Thompson doesn’t misunderstand, rather he is putting his usual spin on the results…

by strobe | 2nd Jun 22, 12:55pm 1654131329

The majority of people in NZ who sell it will go like this .....purchased property in 2013 = 300k, or 2017 = 500k.....they both could have got 1 million last year, they'll sell at 600k, making a tax free capital gain of 100 - 400k, no loss at all, buy back in the same market.

Overall it will be good for the economy and for future generations wanting to stay and be productive in NZ, more money spent in the economy instead of funnelled to offshore banks.

by user123 | 2nd Jun 22, 1:12pm 1654132328

100% bang on the money. NZ housing won't be in the "buy" zone for 3 - 5 years. And the recovery may not be quick. It can take a decade or longer for prices to fully recover. In Japan, although their bubble was far more extreme than NZ, house prices declined for 20 years!

by J.C. | 2nd Jun 22, 1:23pm 1654133034

Actually, Japanese household debt to GDP was 50% lower than that of NZ (at this point in time) at the peak of the bubble. Also, total housing value in Japan was nowhere near 5x GDP. Arguably, the NZ bubble is bigger than that of Japan.

by strobe | 2nd Jun 22, 1:29pm 1654133379

I'm not sure why people keep comparing to Japan, a quick google search of immigration policies and declining birth rates tells you why.

by J.C. | 2nd Jun 22, 2:08pm 1654135704

Population growth and immigration policies were no barrier to the Japanese bubble

by Von Metternich | 2nd Jun 22, 10:59am 1654124397

Housing is an illiquid market and people can't walk away from mortgages in the same way. The drawdown/collapse will be slow, taking years as people cling to pay their mortgages and cut discretionary spending to nothing. The default rate is unclear, but people pay their debts as follows: Mortgage -> Car -> Credit Card -> BNPL.

Losses will be in BNPL first, then unsecuritized debt before securitized defaults.

The question from here is how low the prices go. Yield/Cash flow vs cost of borrowing implies we need to fall move than 50%.

by Averageman | 2nd Jun 22, 11:45am 1654127149

Indeed. People will hang on past the point of logic. Until they cant. Once the banks have no options left but to start the margin calls, then price discovery will take place at what the average Joe can really pay. It could be a repeat of 1988-1992. Most in business now and those with big mortgages don't remember this period. Those that do will have reduced debt to zero and be building their vulture funds.

Will the banks sit on/swallow bad debt this time...or not?

by Pragmatist | 2nd Jun 22, 2:14pm 1654136050

I think you mean secured, not securitized. Not even close to the same thing.

by Market Interest | 2nd Jun 22, 5:52pm 1654149137

This just in...

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/128823123/sharp-rise-in-people-missing…

by RickStrauss | 2nd Jun 22, 11:01am 1654124487

Good news, overall. Perhaps soon we can rebalance tax and economic policy to reward hard productive work instead of speculation.

by fortunr | 2nd Jun 22, 11:20am 1654125622

Exactly.

by Averageman | 2nd Jun 22, 11:48am 1654127303

We can but hope. Note that means not voting for Nat's next year as they want role back the anti speculation policies.

by Matt_B | 2nd Jun 22, 11:37am 1654126648

Both main parties are just as bad as each other

Who has been Gov that has caused this recent issue

by RickStrauss | 2nd Jun 22, 11:43am 1654126980

Frying pan and fire, yes. The only question is which is which at any given time.

by sparrow | 2nd Jun 22, 1:47pm 1654134452

Luxon plans to reinstate interest deductibility for residential landlords and take Brightline back to 2 years. If paired with Act, the "most immigration friendly party" borders will open wide.

by Mrs The Point | 2nd Jun 22, 1:54pm 1654134888

Back to the Future, just like the good ol' days of pony tail fondling John.

by RickStrauss | 2nd Jun 22, 2:38pm 1654137538

Bringing 20th century solutions to 21st century problems.

by Matt_B | 2nd Jun 22, 2:08pm 1654135735

Will have to wait for their election promises and what they will actually campaign on for next years election

net immigration has been high for many years

Labour election promise in 2017 was to drop net migration down by 20-30k per year. Never happened, kept pumping up the numbers

Both National and Labour will bring people in, Plenty of data on her and on statsnz page

by LFCYNWA | 2nd Jun 22, 11:41am 1654126882

Yes! Kids born after 2010 will thank us for this.

by AdamJay1990 | 2nd Jun 22, 11:10am 1654125028

Great to see the REINZ figures backed up. I also liked this quote:

"Vendors not able to achieve the price they want for their property have delisted rather than lower their asking price" ..

Good luck with that.

by malamah | 2nd Jun 22, 11:18am 1654125532

We're still seriously in the middle of finding prices. Asking prices are all over the show, some still asking for more than 2021, some asking the same, some dropping their prices 20%+. Once it is genuinely understood what is actually happening in the market, people who don't have to sell won't. The market will be mainly forced sales, and only then will we see anything even closely resembling a true market support.

by theglc | 2nd Jun 22, 3:52pm 1654141946

"The market will be mainly forced sales"

Maybe, but i also believe there will be a lot who wont want to risk inflation and higher interest rates putting their portfolio under pressure, so will sell a portion and take the profits albeit reduced from what Nov would have provided, just to keep some breathing room.

by malamah | 2nd Jun 22, 4:11pm 1654143069

Yea that’s a good point. I haven’t noticed a big rush to market so far, but haven’t been watching too closely. Stock levels seem to be high due to low activity more than anything at the moment

by Carlos67 | 2nd Jun 22, 11:19am 1654125545

From this point on the RBNZ will be looking at the number of mortgagee sales and that's all that counts. Plenty of people will choose to delist they move house in this country just for the fun of it. It will be forced sales that count and that is why we are getting slow interest rate rises the RBNZ don't want to over cook it. We are going to have high inflation for some time to come.

by realterms | 2nd Jun 22, 11:39am 1654126782

There's a lot of pressure short of outright mortgagee sale which will have an effect without necessarily being reflected in the outright sale mortgagee statistics.

by Miguel | 2nd Jun 22, 12:47pm 1654130863

For mortgagee sale to happen you generally need two conditions to be met. Difficulty in meeting payments AND inability to sell without taking a loss.

In an environment where prices rose 30% in a year, even if people are struggling to make their payments, they will likely chose to "cash out" as they can exit without taking a financial loss. So they won't let their property be foreclosed on. So until price falls hit the point where significant numbers are in negative equity, we are unlikely to see a big spike in mortgagee sales, but that equity buffer is only masking the number of people in financial distress.

by company of heroes | 2nd Jun 22, 11:10am 1654125052

Barfoot's median selling price was $1,125,000 in Auckland. I seriously don't understand how can house prices be justified in Auckland, $1,125,000? for what? Buy a house that gets shot at?

'If I’d stood up I’d have been shot' - Man inside Auckland house fired on overnight | Stuff.co.nz

by Brock Landers | 2nd Jun 22, 11:37am 1654126637

Maybe there is a magic bullet after all...

by Fitzgerald | 2nd Jun 22, 11:41am 1654126868

Try being a renter and paying 70% of your income to live in a horrible old sh/tbox with toxic carpets. And you'll probably still get shot at.

The RBNZ has screwed over almost every sector of society in its blind pursuit of "the wealth effect".

And the screwing will continue as mortgage rates rise. People are going to be stuck with massive (and rising!) mortgage payments on those houses in bad neighborhoods, and crime/social unrest will only get worse as everyone gets poorer and poorer and poorer. No relief in sight for renters either. It is just the homeowners turn to get screwed slightly harder.

"The wealth effect" was the stupidest idea in central banking policy history.

by RickStrauss | 2nd Jun 22, 11:44am 1654127088

Not just central banking, but enabled and fostered by parliaments infested by property speculators. Talking the talk on productivity, but putting their money where their mouth wasn't.

by Te Kooti | 2nd Jun 22, 2:14pm 1654136070

You fella's were complaining on the way up, now you're complaining on the way down... I'm beginning to think you just like to complain.

One of the reasons house prices have shot up relative to incomes is the increased participation of women in the workforce. You just have to accept things aren't going back to the way they were 30 years ago.

by Fitzgerald | 2nd Jun 22, 2:21pm 1654136513

Says the guy who keeps an empty house in the middle of a housing crisis.

It's not like you'd give a toss about kids having to sleep in cars. All is sweet in TK's world. Nothing to complain about.

by Te Kooti | 2nd Jun 22, 2:33pm 1654137237

Possibly the dumbest comment of the 4 years I've been reading here.

by Cheetahlegs66 | 2nd Jun 22, 6:13pm 1654150410

His house, his choice. I guess you offer the hungry some food from your full pantry?

by Te Kooti | 2nd Jun 22, 6:20pm 1654150849

The house is regularly used by my whanau and friends. I choose to do this rather than rent it because the return is no longer worth it as the value is mostly the land for that particlular property, I am priviledged to be able to do so.

by RickStrauss | 2nd Jun 22, 2:43pm 1654137803

I have been consistent since I first voted for John Key because he campaigned on addressing two major problems: New Zealand's housing crisis, and its lagging productivity problem. I would be happy to see politicians of any stripe prepared to address these very serious problems that are two sides of the same coin. My disappointment with politicians including and since John Key has been consistent because their willingness to campaign on these issues but failure to act on them has first been consistent.

There are plenty of policies we can address without any need to turn the clock back on the participation of women in the workforce.

(As an aside, as a property owner I too have received my free wealth transfers from govt and Reserve Bank policy favour, but that hasn't made the country better in any way.)

by Te Kooti | 2nd Jun 22, 3:59pm 1654142359

Even if the land was free Rick, what do you think the cost of building a house, including any council fee's and levy's, would be? I didn't suggest we turn the clock back, it was an example how we are not going back to buying houses at 4* a solo income.

There are a lot of reasons house prices are high here and you would be surprised just how little politicians are able to influence this on a 3 year election cycle. No party has been able to despite it being a sure fire vote winner.

by RickStrauss | 2nd Jun 22, 5:25pm 1654147510

No party has been able to

No party has wanted to or realistically tried to bring prices down, because having house prices going up has turned out to be a sure fire vote winner. They have been celebrated as a "good problem to have" and a "sign of our success", while other politicians have openly said they don't want house prices to come down. We cannot be willfully blind to that reality.

I have no complaint regarding building costs (save the obvious issues raised by others elsewhere re duopoly conditions and building materials costing way beyond what they do elsewhere). Completely different issue from policy incentivising speculation on land value - nor does land need to be free.

I would not be surprised at all at how policy can influence land value, because in very many places and time and history we have demonstrations of how not to create one of the world's worst housing debt bubbles. This is also demonstrated because every time people point out policies that could lower the cost of houses, the discussion is quickly moved on to reasons why we should not do so. Obvious examples of policy changes include liberalising authoritarian NIMBY zoning restrictions, changing tax to disincentivise speculation on land value and incentivise productive work, and gradually removing yield and price subsidies.

If you were to point out to many an economist that much has been tried, I'd suggest most would point out that very little has been tried, and none of the above policy changes.

by Te Kooti | 2nd Jun 22, 6:38pm 1654151932

There aren't that many principle cities where anyone but the uber wealthy can afford houses on 800sq/m <10km from the CBD.

Most large cities are super high density with only apartments for anything in within a 10km zone. Auckland is crying out for more high quality high density dwellings. That's the only way future generations are going to live in this zone.

by RickStrauss | 3rd Jun 22, 9:39am 1654205997

Agree absolutely. The fact governance has been preventing that (and is still trying to) is a major factor in the housing crisis, and one readily changed if not for authoritarian NIMBYs in council.

by RickStrauss | 2nd Jun 22, 11:42am 1654126937

When my relatives in California (Bay area) are paying less for better housing and are shocked by Auckland house prices, you know something is seriously poked. And to think, without the supportive combination of council NIMBYism, tax law favouring speculation, and welfarism from government and Reserve Bank, house prices would be relatively affordable in New Zealand.

by Beanie | 2nd Jun 22, 11:53am 1654127623

Let's talk about nimbyism then. Who wants more and more people jammed into their street, with all the problems that brings? Not me...

by Beanie | 2nd Jun 22, 12:54pm 1654131288

Nimby used to be the term used when locals kicked up a fuss about the siting of an undesirable facility like a landfill, prison, halfway house etc. But all those were essential facilities that had to go in somebody's neighbourhood.

However there is nothing essential about increasing the population, so it's quite right when residents object to rezoning their sleepy street into an overpopulated future slum.

by Carlos67 | 2nd Jun 22, 1:13pm 1654132421

Yep I paid good money to be in a nice street with nice neighbours. Plenty of green field new development space further out build some high rise high density housing out there.

by Camel's back | 2nd Jun 22, 1:22pm 1654132959

Nope, we like the green fields green thanks.

by RickStrauss | 2nd Jun 22, 2:49pm 1654138193

So keep your property as it is. You've no god-given entitlement to prevent others building on their own land, though. It's their land. NIMBYism is just entitlement mentality with lipstick on.

by Cheetahlegs66 | 2nd Jun 22, 6:27pm 1654151249

So if all the neighbourhood are on quarter acre sections, it’s ok to completely change the character of the area by throwing in 100 Kainga Ora houses in med density housing? Thank Christ our area has a solid covenant.

by RickStrauss | 3rd Jun 22, 9:41am 1654206101

It really comes back to whether you or I have some especial entitlement to rule over what others can build on their own land. There's nothing stopping you buying sections around your own to create park-like conditions you may want, either.

by blobbles | 2nd Jun 22, 1:58pm 1654135122

They are jammed in anyway! It's just that they are in motels/garages/horrible properties or homeless in cars parked outside your house. The other option is higher density and cheaper housing.

by RickStrauss | 2nd Jun 22, 2:44pm 1654137885

Nothing is stopping you buying more places around you should you wish to have fewer people around you. The issue is your entitlement - more precisely, lack thereof - to impose authoritarian rule on what others around you can do on their own land.

by strobe | 2nd Jun 22, 3:01pm 1654138888

I agree with what you're saying, if people want to control their neighbours then they are welcome to buy their land and do with it what they want.

by Beanie | 2nd Jun 22, 4:59pm 1654145955

I have no desire to restrict anyone from doing what they want with their property. It is the council zoning rules that restrict what you can do. It is the change of zoning rules necessary to accommodate the massive and unmandated increase in population I object to.

Do you really not care if your sunlight gets blocked out and your street gets jammed with parked cars?

by RickStrauss | 2nd Jun 22, 5:12pm 1654146736

I have no desire to restrict anyone from doing what they want with their property. It is the council zoning rules that restrict what you can do. It is the change of zoning rules necessary to accommodate the massive and unmandated increase in population I object to.

That's a whole lot of gymnastic talking around the desire to restrict people from doing what they want with their property.

(There need not be free street parking.)

by Beanie | 2nd Jun 22, 5:49pm 1654148959

Where will the 3 or 4 times as many cars that intensification brings park?

If you are arguing for intensification are you also arguing for an ever increasing population, or do you think they aren't connected?

And I will ask again, do you not care the quality of life on YOUR land is adversely affected by this?

by agnostium | 2nd Jun 22, 7:46pm 1654155972

Where will the 3 or 4 times as many cars that intensification brings park?

They will park on their property
Or they will park on the street if the council allows street parking.
If the council doesn't allow street parking and they do not have their own car park they will either not own a car or rent a space of someone who has a spare car park
As the competition for parking increases and the public subsidies lessen the private market will step into the space and provide things like car share which takes between 9 and12 cars of the network
If you build more houses closer to good public transport links and closer to town and city centres it makes public transport and walking more viable and some people will choose not to own a car.

Using concerns about parking as a reason not to build more houses closer to where people want to live is 1st order NIMBYism

by RickStrauss | 3rd Jun 22, 9:45am 1654206335

Exactly, it's a smokescreen. Parking is easily addressed, and you have done so.

Providing free on street parking is a subsidy to property developers and can create some messy outcomes, so should be reconsidered in that light.

by strobe | 2nd Jun 22, 6:48pm 1654152523

Immigration needs to be properly capped, say 1 house built for 1 person in, otherwise more and more people need to squeeze into a smaller and smaller area.

by kiwiana02 | 3rd Jun 22, 8:57am 1654203466

Someone’s sunlight and views will need to get compromised in order to get enough homes. The question has been whose. To date, people in the wealthy inner suburbs, have managed to ensure the planning rules work in their favour, resulting in the absurd situation of inner city single house zones and low density living close to the CBD. The government’s recent changes, supported by National, aimed to override this blatant nimbysm. In AK, the Council is doing all it can to circumvent the new legislation.

by RickStrauss | 3rd Jun 22, 9:44am 1654206261

The worst part of this entitlement mentality in action has been the foisting of the costs of the sprawl these NIMBYs cause on others, by virtue of using a regional fuel tax to avoid putting up rates. Terrible entitlement mentality.

Good to see National and Labour both recognising this ridiculous authoritarian NIMBYism is simply too expensive and unsustainable to continue unchecked.

by WestieAJ | 2nd Jun 22, 11:55am 1654127734

What the people farmers don't realise is that their stock have free will. Permanent NZ residency is being given to 165,000 migrants as a one off pathway. That pathway for many of them will lead to Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth ect. The grass might be browner on the other side of the ditch but it's cheaper to eat.

by CourtJester | 3rd Jun 22, 8:46am 1654202796

NZ Permanent residency doesn't give you the right to work and live in Australia. NZ citizenship does, and there is a ~5 year wait for that after getting your residency.

by Adam B NZ | 2nd Jun 22, 11:13am 1654125229

Easy come, easy go.

by Waikatohome | 2nd Jun 22, 11:14am 1654125284

Can we get a comment from Ashley Church? He was confident that the past performance of NZ property prices was proof that the market couldn't fall. Was he wrong by any chance?

by Averageman | 2nd Jun 22, 11:18am 1654125525

Did he cash up somewhat and relocate to the Hawkes Bay....?

by Zen20 | 2nd Jun 22, 2:27pm 1654136867

Rachel Hunter & Saddim Hussein were sitting round pondering their respective positions as No 1 global supermodel and No 1 world's biggest bastard. Both agreed they were getting older and there was pressure on them to retain their positions.

They decided to visit The Oracle to have their status confirmed by the always accurate prescient.

They toss a coin to see who goes first and it's Rachel first up. 10 minutes later she emerges with a radiant smile on her face and declares "It's so amazing, I truly am the still the most beautiful supermodel on earth!".

Saddim is buoyed by Rachel's confirmation and enters The Oracle with gusto.

5 minutes later he emerges sheepishly, looking most perplexed and asks : "So who the f**k is Ashley Church?"

by Befuddled | 2nd Jun 22, 11:23am 1654125804

A ha ha ha c'mon! You know a look at the long-term price graph will provide all the proof needed and evidence that over time, property prices only ever increase. This is 'just a localized blowing off of over-exuberant froth'

by HW2 | 2nd Jun 22, 2:07pm 1654135670

Property prices defy cost-of-living squeeze to rise 15.2% – The Irish Times

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/property-prices-defy-cost-o…

Oh here we are and here we are and here we go

All aboard and we're hitting the road

Here we go, frothy all over the world

Ah giddy-up and giddy-up and get away

We're going crazy and we're going today

Here we go, rockin' all over the world

And I like it, I like it, I like it, I like it

I li-li-like it, li-li-li

Here we go, frothy all over the world

by Nzdan | 2nd Jun 22, 2:25pm 1654136720

Pays to look at the graph in your link. Property prices are up 15.2% but have only recovered to 90% of their peak in 2007.

What the graph also shows is a 6 - 9% drop in the first year of the Irish crash from 07 - 08 (12 months)

by HW2 | 2nd Jun 22, 4:52pm 1654145573

So NZ could be following Ireland's footsteps and prices may never recover is what you are saying. Tough for those who recently bought nzdan.

by Nzdan | 2nd Jun 22, 7:33pm 1654155238

Not at all. Just pointing out how ridiculous your example is.

If your last sentence is directed at me (as I have commented in the past about recently trading up), we're sitting very comfortably.....at present....on over 40% equity and a household DTI of less than 4. Unfortunately most of that equity was gifted by the FHB that bought off us.

by HW2 | 2nd Jun 22, 8:38pm 1654159088

Having 40 percent equity is very scary if you are saying that the nz property market is somehow like Ireland's. Their prices dropped by 50 percent and more so are you doing the "problem shared is a problem halved" thing.

by Nzdan | 3rd Jun 22, 9:04am 1654203868

I didn't say the NZ Property Market is like Ireland's, I just pulled some key facts from the article that you shared.

Anyway, if prices did fall 50% there will be a considerable number of highly leveraged property investors and FHB in a much much worse position, I won't be sweating bullets.

by tuisbest | 2nd Jun 22, 5:24pm 1654147483

Perhaps he wants to point out that about 15 years after their crash, Ireland's prices have almost recovered?

by HW2 | 2nd Jun 22, 5:49pm 1654148992

I like your angle. Burn with panache

by lucenera | 2nd Jun 22, 5:54pm 1654149283

Assuming HW2 is coherently following past comments I guess it was an attempt to make again a point that houses go up.

If that is true the example is a bad example, because it shows how dire the situation can go, actually.

Also... those are nominal values, in 10 years recovering just 90% is a reaaaallly bad performance (but yes, somebody that bought at the bottom made a good deal)

Are we at the bottom yet? (sarc on)

by HW2 | 2nd Jun 22, 7:53pm 1654156436

No I am incredibly relaxed about where this goes, que cera cera whatever will be. Yes I have lived through previous property downturns and this one does not strike me as particularly bad. It has been engineered by the gummint cccfa which they are also about to relax, and the rbnz through higher ocr and threats of more. They can just as easily turn back the tap when they choose. For the average homeowner they cannot and should not try to time the market. In our case we now have a ton of houses and a ton of land and do not play the market yet have done reasonably well for ourselves. Before you ask or jump to conclusions, we do not compete with fhb aka first home buyers and homeowners.

by lucenera | 2nd Jun 22, 8:01pm 1654156903

Usually I avoid to try mind-reading anybody else.

I stated that usually your opinion appears to be that house prices go just up.

In terms of what you do with your money is pretty much not my business.

In terms of people that "turn back the tap when they choose", that is actually a very big concern... because that is MY money :D

by HW2 | 2nd Jun 22, 8:42pm 1654159331

I dont bother to try to persuade others even if they are totally misinformed. Btw whatever I do does not affect you per se though it does help others. The gummint is planning to reverse or amend the cccfa legislation, which regulates banks. By saying "MY money" are you meaning that you have a large pool of funds invested in TDs or something. I very much doubt it.

by Kohukohunui | 2nd Jun 22, 3:51pm 1654141906

19th May, https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/ashley-church-what-can-we-learn-from-the…

"...so perhaps we need to take a chill pill in respect of the headlines we’re reading and see how this thing plays out. After almost six months of predictions of doom and gloom the best numbers seem to indicate that we’re seeing small decreases in house values in some parts of the country and small increases in others."

by Chaosinflesh | 2nd Jun 22, 11:15am 1654125355

"while buyers are realising that prices are not falling off the cliff edge."

How many of those buyers are owner-occupiers trading sideways? If the rhetoric that there are chains of conditional sales waiting for that FHB/specuvestor to trigger them are true, then there is no basis for this statement - as these buyers already have skin/equity in the game and can weather drops far better than the aforementioned groups.

by malamah | 2nd Jun 22, 11:24am 1654125872

"Motivated sale! Vendor bought elsewhere" will be a true pain story of 2022. There are many listings with the same story at the moment. There will be a lot of negotiating going on in the OO group, as it is the most active buying bracket by a looooong way now. One cashed up high earning FHB could trigger multiple sales. The telling story will be the amount of debt generated in the OO bracket over the next year as they didn't sell for as much as they bought for. Price by Negotiation

by strobe | 2nd Jun 22, 11:25am 1654125931

I'm wondering who are these clowns are that are still paying an average of $1,125,000

by IT GUY | 2nd Jun 22, 11:32am 1654126367

Be 20% by xmas there is no crash says Barfoot

by tuisbest | 2nd Jun 22, 5:27pm 1654147671

Barfoot be like: "30% down, so a slight softening in prices.."

by CourtJester | 3rd Jun 22, 8:49am 1654202978

"The market is easing back to a more stable level"

by tuisbest | 3rd Jun 22, 11:36am 1654212983

With an added: "The best time to buy was yesterday, as it's time in the market..blah,blah,blah.."

by WestieAJ | 2nd Jun 22, 11:39am 1654126777

Builders/Developers are still delivering over a thousand dwellings a month into the Auckland housing supply. Many of those would have been presold months ago. Some by Barfoots. Still distorting the average and median at this stage.

by ex socialist | 2nd Jun 22, 12:07pm 1654128435

I think that this issue of housing completions hasn't been felt yet. Most new homes are sold 6 months before the completion - so there is a lot of people who purchased last year sitting in rentals and planning their decoration. So as the year unfolds a lot more rental homes will become available - which will be the first point of pressure for landlords.

I also suspect that many who contracted last year will have difficulties when they come time to settle. Of course many will have a 6 month offer of finance from a bank - but if that is has lapsed then they may have difficulty financing settlement. In this case the developer gets to keep the deposit and on-sell at a lower price.

There will also be a cohort who contracted to purchase apartments some eighteen months ago - on the common expectation that the price would go up and they would be able to sell them for a profit on settlement. The challenge is that 20 apartments in one development coming on the market at one time can push down the value - which in turn means that valuers working for other buyers have only evidence of lower sale prices when supporting mortgage applications.

by ex agent | 2nd Jun 22, 11:44am 1654127095

I spoke to a friend in Auckland on Tuesday last. He said he had friends who were sadly splitting up. They have a nice home in a leafy Auckland suburb. According to him last year it would have been worth $4.5m. It was put on the market this year and they have not received any offers.. No one is interested. Not looking good up there.

by strobe | 2nd Jun 22, 12:14pm 1654128868

War, poverty, inflation, pandemics, food shortages and this couple can't even get a measly 4.5 million for their house, it's sad times, what has the world come to.

by Von Metternich | 2nd Jun 22, 12:26pm 1654129619

That is more than a life time of salary. It honestly sounds delusional to expect that much for anything less than a palace.

by Brock Landers | 2nd Jun 22, 12:11pm 1654128673

This is quite an informative video about whats going on in the property market at the moment.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3crPlVOSWh0

by MoaningMoa | 2nd Jun 22, 12:11pm 1654128696

You owe me a new monitor, and possibly a new keyboard if I can't get this tea out of it.

by Bluff | 2nd Jun 22, 12:00pm 1654128046

How many of those delisting are thinking things will pick up soon enough & prices will be restored.

If RB has its way they'll shift inflation targets to 46-68% & impliminent negative rates to -10% to restore some balance to the ponzi scheme. Then welcome back the Nats, a shadow party for Chong Kee, to restore interest write offs, foreign buyers etc.

by Averageman | 2nd Jun 22, 12:18pm 1654129122

The debt speculators are a small part of the market, and don't swing the balance of power. He have always and will continue to vote right. If National abandoned it mantra of property debt before all else, then they would hose back in. But they wont.

by Market Interest | 2nd Jun 22, 6:15pm 1654150521

Why not, then? If it's such a vote winner, why haven't they abandoned said mantra? I'm not being facetious here.

by lucenera | 2nd Jun 22, 6:29pm 1654151383

sooo...

You win elections by convincing enough people that you will pursue policies in what they think is their best interest.

60%-ish of homeowners is a good number... and most renters don't even bother to vote because they feel unrepresented.

Now... at least 90% of said 60% is convinced that if houses go up in value their life is better.

Many of them will be dead in the next 10 years (lucky us!) so they don't really care of the long-term consequences.

People are selfish and short sighted, and democracy is based on the vote of the majority of them

by OldSkoolEconomics | 3rd Jun 22, 7:14am 1654197292

Unfortunately National missed that most homeowners and even mum and dad investors are now in favour of change.

As per australia where the last guys found out voters had swung in favor of climate policies, national will learn the hard way that we will forgo some money in favor of leaving a half decent world for our kids.

We are increasingly able to link the increase in gang members and crime to the transfer of wealth to the few (caused by housing wealth increase), the exodus of our kids to housing wealth increase, the lack of leadership to direct our foreign policies toward our traditional partners (dont want our kids growing up repressed under Xi), and more.

Nationals problem is that the wont solve any of this stuff. So better stick with labour with a forced partnet again to keep them on track.

7 houses luxon has no policies that will actually help. He just wants his and his mates investment prices up, to dig up more oil, farmers to be let off the hook re climate, and less tax for the rich.

I see nothing from national. Their traditional voters like me will vote for winston or chloe or top in order to keep labour straight.

by RickStrauss | 3rd Jun 22, 9:48am 1654206512

People are getting increasingly annoyed that in the hard times the first thing National comes out and commits to is tax cuts for property investors. Working folk on lower wages are doing it incredibly tough, but apparently it's property investors who need to be tax-free and the working folk just need to knuckle down and focus on paying the taxes that fund NZ society's services that everyone - including speculators - enjoys.

by Carlos67 | 3rd Jun 22, 10:28am 1654208926

An how was voting for Labour working out for you ? On reflection about half the country was in the "stupid" category.

by RickStrauss | 3rd Jun 22, 3:31pm 1654227067

I have never voted for Labour. I have voted for National multiple times. The problem is they're not offering anything now.

by Waikatohome | 3rd Jun 22, 10:38am 1654209503

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/is-the-rental-market-finally-good-for-renters/FPNSX3ENJMMUP5MOKNDULDNJAE/

National keep peddling the line that what is good for landlords is good for the rest of us. They are of the view that any extra costs on landlords lead to increased cost for renters. This is obviously untrue, we didn't have a housing crisis prior to the property price boom. Government action has slowed demand and now prices are falling. The article above shows that this is now feeding through to LOWER rents. Whilst I am no fan of Labour at the moment, I think National would be worse for the average Kiwi unless they change their stance on Tax and property.

by tuisbest | 3rd Jun 22, 11:47am 1654213628

As annoyed as I am with Labour, there is no way I'm voting for the party that will prioritise providing "relief to landlords", a phrase that's been mentioned a few times - and (believe it or not) not as a joke.

by HolbornDairies | 2nd Jun 22, 12:27pm 1654129670

Sold our investment property in Queenstown in February ... paid off $1/2m in debt ... balance into a 15% stake in a big 380ha Southland dairy farm equity syndicate. Rather rent to a sharemilker and 1070 cows than 1 financially tapped-out human being for the next few years !!

by HW2 | 2nd Jun 22, 7:58pm 1654156681

Big good move HD. Small 15 percent stake potentially risky. Good luck

by The Black Swan | 2nd Jun 22, 12:56pm 1654131403

9.3% drop in 6 months and it will accelerates from here. Credit cycle being replaced by an economic cycle. Property price graphs will start looking like crypto charts soon.

by malamah | 2nd Jun 22, 1:07pm 1654132048

Get your candle sticks out...

by Thats All Folks | 2nd Jun 22, 1:35pm 1654133724

I think they got the got the agency name wrong.

Barefeet & Begging.

by Llama_360 | 2nd Jun 22, 1:38pm 1654133919

Are these prices of agreements that settled in May or were entered into in May?

by WestieAJ | 2nd Jun 22, 1:43pm 1654134205

March 2021 (Barfoot peak) figures from RBNZ C40 Stats. Auckland first home buyers only

DTI 6-7. total 188 mil for 239 borrowers @ average 786k each. Best case average income 131k to support

DTI >7. total 87 mil for 101 borrowers @ average 861k each. Best case average income 123k to support

Assuming they had the sense to lock in 2.5% for 2 years. Then come March 2023 re fixing at 5% they are facing weekly interest cost increase. $377 for DTI 6-7 group. $414 for DTI <7 group. Not even factoring in for low equity premium.

by JamesM | 2nd Jun 22, 2:29pm 1654136984

Anyone on here invest with Duval or Williams Corp? Still receiving dividends?

by JJS | 2nd Jun 22, 2:42pm 1654137775

You'd be brave to "invest" in these funds. I guess someone does need to pay to fuel the Rolls and private jet?

by Nzdan | 2nd Jun 22, 2:48pm 1654138131

Of course they are. Isn't it 10% guaranteed for perpetuity

by Averageman | 2nd Jun 22, 3:02pm 1654138966

Sounds like Bridgecorp and Goldcorp in the 80s....

by JamesM | 2nd Jun 22, 5:54pm 1654149250

Or Hanover, Bridgecorp, Blue Chip, Strategic finance etc in 2009.

by JamesM | 2nd Jun 22, 2:35pm 1654137321

Also note that Winton Land share price has dropped 28% since listing earlier this year. Not a good time to be sitting on land without income and increasing holding costs.

by mfd | 2nd Jun 22, 3:07pm 1654139263

I must admit I have sold my CDI shares. I think they are undervalued due to the big pile of cash and land valued at cost, but I think the sentiment is against them for now and there is now no shortage of undervalued alternatives for my money.

by HouseMouse | 2nd Jun 22, 3:50pm 1654141857

Anyone who bought Winton Land shares seriously need their heads read.