There was a hint of spring in the air at Barfoot & Thompson's latest auctions, with more properties being offered and more selling under the hammer.
Auckland's biggest real estate agency offered 86 residential properties at its latest auctions (17-23 September), up from 64 the previous week and 73 the week before that.
Of those, 27 sold under the hammer, giving an overall sales rate of 31%, up from 23% for each of the previous two weeks.
One of the biggest improvements was at the west Auckland auctions where the overall sales rate lifted to 42%.
The sales rates for Waitakere properties have often been closer to 10% in recent weeks.
So is this the start of the usual spring pickup for the real estate market?
Too soon to say, but it may be a step in that direction.
Details of the individual properties offered at all of the auctions monitored by interest.co.nz. including the prices of the properties that sold, are available on our Residential Auction Results page.
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93 Comments
The correct term in financial parlance is "dead cat bounce".
But only if there is a bounce..
Possibilty that vendors are more flexiable now than before to meet the market or now those vendors going to auction who are serious
.. I'm reckoning its gonna be a dead cat splat ...
I know Australian metrics have an auction clearance rate above 70% correlates with a rising market, and below 50% correlates with a declining market. So house prices should still be declining rather that lifting
3 weeks into spring and it's 31%, well done RE agents for a fantastic job
Increased activity in B&T auction rooms may signal start of spring bounce.
Sounds like a Tui ad.
Look at all the sarcasm - above and below - from the DGM……
A sure sign the little Doom Goblins are getting nervous. 😖
TTP
Well...
By getting in debt now you might hope that your interest rates don't go up 100% or more again in the next 6 months.
To do that again OCR should go to 9-10% in the short term, unlikely (but not impossible)
So if you find something that you reaaaaally like and it is a veeeery good deal is probably not a super bad idea to make an offer.
Sure, you also need to consider the fact that you are NOT going to make money anymore in that way... that era is gone.
But still.
Can you please stop with this "doom goblin" thing?
High house prices are a very bad thing for everybody in the midterm (5-10 years cycles circa), they make people abandoning hope.
Look at what happens with "bai lan" and "tang ping".
If you can't win, you stop the fight.
Is that the world you want?
Lucenera, Someone could tell this to likes of Jacinda's, would have been good.
... why ? ... Jacinda " PJ " Ardern doesn't listen to anyone ...
I just don’t understand why you would call someone a doom and gloom goblin who welcomes house price decreases from ridiculously high levels. Are you aware of the total social clusterfu$k that deranged housing costs have caused this country? I welcome this reversal and this is from someone that bought last year.
It does suggest supreme levels of narcissistic entitlement mentality.
... perfect credentials for him to become a politician ...
Are you aware of the total social clusterfu$k that deranged housing costs have caused this country?
Simple answer for someone like TTP is yes, but zero f's given as long as they are 'winning'. I must say it is actually quite refreshing to see so many people nowadays wanting a sensible correction of what is a disgusting, greed driven shower of shite housing market, so that they and their families can at least have a chance at owning a home to live in.
Anyone related to property has the vested interest of needing sales transactions to get paid. This includes valuers, mortgage brokers, photography and staging, Bankers bonuses, and especially agents and agencies. TTP falls in this camp.
If your reading what's happening in the UK and US as their debt bloated ponzis start to spin out of balance, now is not the time to go long on speculation. If you need a house to live in or have death, divorce, downsizing type drivers, then you gotta do what you gotta do.
Over 12000 on the market in Auckland. 27 sold at auction last week just another 11973 to go. Just looked today still 12027 on trademe in Auckland. This housing market is toast soon rates will go up putting more people into further debt NZD is tanking again which will keep inflation high this is facts.
You realise these are the auction results just for Barfoot and Thompson right?
Don't take it personally TTP. It's not healthy to have your character and core identity so inextricably bound to a dysfunctional and failing market.
... au contraire , buddy : some of us are ecstatic that house prices are coming down .... overjoyed that houses are once again coming into the hands of friends & families .... and that they're slipping from the greedy grasp of speculators & spruikers ...
I'm handing out the Gummies , happy times .... the property ponzi has popped , and not before time ...
I'm impressed with the amount of triggering that such elementary trolling still manages to elicit.
Well done Tim The Pricefixer.
Look at all the sarcasm - above and below
No sarcasm in my comment TTP, I mean every word as it is written.
The next coming weeks will be interesting as spring campaigns start going to auction.
Who will buy with huge downturn just starting around the world, Nifty if you are hoping for recovery in the market soon you will be very disappointed. The housing market will continue to crash some developers will go insolvent as debt and inflation starts to destroy peoples finances, anyone over leveraged should sell whatever they can before their liabilities sink them.
Are you not also interested to see what l will happen in the coming weeks... assuming you are given you comment claims of crashes every article.
Nifty I am interested but find it quite sad that people like yourself who are aware this market is crashing but still try and coax people to jump in because you are worried your little empire is crumbling. Just tell the truth, facts are house price’s are crashing get over it.
Yeah not sure how how I've coaxed anyone.. but I find it quite sad how badly you want the market to crash & try to paralize other people in fear...
Nifty1 Facts are facts the market is crashing. I don’t want market to crash but it is, so many people have invested all they have into investment properties and have been coaxed by so call experts to buy house’s at over inflated price’s if I can shed some light on to these charlatans I am happy. Why do you continue to push a misleading narrative on to readers. I am sure you know that rates are climbing, NZD is tanking keeping inflation way above target levels. If you are over leveraged sell what you can quickly as it’s going to be one of the biggest downturns we have seen.
Show me how I've mislead people mate... certaintly not preaching to people like you are.
I want it to crash.
In drastic need of a major reset, has been for some time.
We cannot have our ability to participate in our modern currency system (CBs, variable rates etc) handicaped by the gluttony of a single sector.
Diversify, pay down your debt... Sit back and watch the fun..
Dtrh
Sorry to spoil the party.... there are hundreds if not thousands of homes sold each week. Those buyers made their own choices and decided for themselves.
Flying high the amount sold are reducing and so is the price’s at a accelerate pace. Most people on here are aware the housing market is tanking, rates are raising, NZD is losing value against USD 17% from beginning of year which will keep inflation high. At this time in would be wise before you sign up for a large debt burden to look around you. Media and some of the so call experts sometimes have other agendas and you and your family will not be on their priority list. A lot of people who have taken their advice over last couple of years will soon be in negative equity.
Am looking to rent something affordable but struggling to find a humble abode. I do own a rental in another city and have equity but cannot afford to buy right now. This could change and I prefer to own and occupy rather than rent as house prices are much cheaper
Still some auction action out there, especially for realistic vendors. Seeing some properties being passed in with bids very close to RV. Closer inspection reveals very tidy properties so maybe worth more than the RV at least in the eyes of the vendor. Quite impressed that some vendors will hold the line.
May be just my familly but its finding the right house that is the main problem. You can have the cash ready to go but it takes us six months to a year to find the right place that ticks all the boxes. I would expect to pay current RV at this point in time in Auckland for a good quality newish home in a decent area. Sure prices are still going to possibly fall a little more but you cannot put your life on hold forever and the older you are the less you care about waiting because when you hit 80, every day is a bonus.
Are there many 80yo buying a home Carlos
A few months ago, in an interview TA says
the bottom is near, returns on housing assets prediction 5% p.a., "emotion" drives the market
he is engaging, listening to him makes me think.
Is that the same Tony that predicted last year that house prices to grow 5% this year?
... listening to TA cures my insomnia ...
£/US$ 1.0875. NZ$/US$ 0.5750
“Bank of England urged to call emergency interest rates meeting next week to rescue pound "
What do we think the RBNZ will do? I doubt lower % rates is the answer.
So for our Property Sector - Sell, if you can find a Buyer that can pay.
We know what the Government is doing, opening up the immigration gates... Based on exchange rates property might start looking cheaper for those overseas...
Those overseas may not be able to afford to buy here, or even afford the thicket to get on the plane? Nobody is going to have the wherewithal to buy - or, more likely, take on Private Debt - as they did even this time last year.
Dow plunges, UK markets collapse in broad rout.
We have a pretty simple choice here. Watch the NZ$ sink into the inflation ravaged global economy, and see our import reliant economy (yes, even our export rely on imports for their production) or....ramp up the OCR to stabilise it. Whichever you think is best, act accordingly.
Plenty of cashed up people... Sure there would be alot that would want to escape the issues pending in the UK/Europe, winter certaintly doesn't look like it's going to be fun.
Cashed up? Really? Why would there be if deposit % rates have been at virtually 0%? Most 'cash' went right back into leverage of some sort to try to eke out a return. Hello crypto, the StockX and of course Property, which along with all other assets, are about to plunge everywhere as % rates are hiked.
Yes, there will some. But I'll suggest such a tiny few that it won't matter in the grand scheme of things.
Exactly. A cashed up few that might migrate here, minimal influence on property.
The biggest need for employers is low- moderate skilled categories, the vast majority of those people who migrate here will NOT be flush with cash.
Besides, cashed up folk might want to retire somewhere that has enough doctors and nurses.
Or cashed up people might also have a little bit more sense than to waste $1m on a shack in New Zealand when they could buy something built twice as good for half the price.
That's a really pertinent point. My wife, for example, is lukewarm about us retiring in NZ because of how shit the health system is. We were back in NZ during COVID and both pretty gobsmacked by how difficult it was to see a medical specialist in a timely manner. And we have private health insurance. Worse was the dentistry...3 month waiting list to get teeth cleaned or a filling in northland, where we were for a few months.
Long time reader, first time commenting. My husband and I are contemplating a retirement move back to NZ in the next 1 to 3 years, after 25 years in Australia. On our list of pros and cons, on the pro side, is proximity to family, the wondrous beauty of NZ, and more benign summers. On the con side, right at the top of the list is the exhorbitant (even extortionate) costs to purchase very prosaic and oftentimes poor quality housing in many cases. 2nd on the cons list is what we consider is very sub standard healthcare in NZ compared to here. We have had direct experience of needing to access healthcare there on a few occasions when visiting, and found every experience very worrying. We are on the horns of a dilemma whether to stay or go.
Plus side is our housing is going to get significantly cheaper, downside is the health care system is circling the drain and no hope is in sight as long as Mr Andrew Dolittle is the minister of health.
Please just stay there where you have paid your taxes and save us taxpayers a lot of cash
This is a very low IQ comment. It is painful how insular some New Zealanders are.
Australia and New Zealand have reciprocal social security agreements in place.
Nah
Where is the net benefit to nz from the 501s and the retirees
Stop being so touchy!
As someone who works in health, I would suggest you stay put, we are leaking colleagues and most are going to Australia. Few are being replaced, despite the narrative and there is a mass exodus in the pipeline around February next year
Wage suppression.
Still even that has a shelf life of effectiveness.
It will be interesting next couple of years.
I just can't see anyway out that doesn't involve a little blood... Not that I see that as a bad thing
If they're anything like kiwis, cash held in banks has been increasing...
Household bank account balances are rising. They rose nearly +7% in the year to February according to RBNZ S40 data
The rest of the world is facing pretty dire circumstances, we may not be looking that bad to them in comparrison...
I agree that despite our vast imperfections we aren’t looking bad, comparatively.
But I don’t square that with us getting lots of cashed up, high income immigrants who will inflate our property market.
Never claimed that they were going to 'inflate our property market' HM...
People like BW falsely shoot down the prospect that people 1. Have cash/ready to move & 2. Find NZ desirable...
Well I think you implied that.
And the context is an article on property.
I didn't imply that HM, you seem to be overally sensitive there could be people wanting to live here...
You definitely implied it by saying ‘cashed up people’. Otherwise why mention ‘cashed up people’ if it’s not implying a bolstering impact on the property market?
Getting a bit worried about your investment portfolio?
That makes zero sense HM.
Whatever. Yawn.
If I was a prospective emigrant I would be looking at Aus well ahead of NZ. Outside Sydney, much more affordable. And closer to home, at least for those coming from South Asia, Europe and Africa.
The rest of the world is facing pretty dire circumstances, we may not be looking that bad to them in comparrison...
Maybe you're right. Nevertheless, ASB's research on their own customers (sample size of 500,000) shows that 2/3 of accounts hold <$10k.
Making the argument that NZ individs and h'holds are "cash rich" is a bit of a stretch if you ask me.
So 166,000 people of that sample hold over $10,000... doesn't seem that bad when you look at it that way & that's just 1 NZ bank.
Theres approx 67 million people in the UK...748 million people in Europe. It's not a push to say some that are cashed up would like to live here...
There are plenty of places in Europe that are nicer to live than here.
... no .. I've been there .... apart from better food & beer , cheaper groceries , pristine picturesque countryside , better paying jobs , cheaper houses , a richness of history , fewer farm animals , cleaner fresh waterways ... apart from that , what has Europe got that's nicer than NZ ...
Public transport ! ... yeah , that was awesome ....
No sure about living in Europe right now with the situations over there within the “blast zone”.
So 166,000 people of that sample hold over $10,000... doesn't seem that bad when you look at it that way & that's just 1 NZ bank.
A sample of 500,000 ASB customers -- easily enough to be a nationally representative sample.
Unfortuantely, the research is not released for public consumption so no opportunity to get under the hood.
The research consistently shows half of NZers have less than $1,000 available in savings.
If you look at ASB savings rates, there's a reason why people don't hold funds in their accounts... so no, not an accurate representation of the country. But hey, I wasn't even talking about kiwis in my initial comment.
No problem. It is what it is. And ASB is still a substantial holder of cash deposits in NZ.
The idea of "cashed up* foreigners rushing to NZ to pay a King's ransom for a piece of suburbia is possible but not sure there is any evidence to support it. This kind of idea seems like hopium more than anything.
Some households have many accounts. Last time i checked we had 20 something.
Most 'cash' went right back into leverage of some sort to try to eke out a return. Hello crypto, the StockX and of course Property, which along with all other assets, are about to plunge everywhere as % rates are hiked.
Saying that the equity and crypto mkts are driven by leverage is partly true. At least for the crypto mkts, it's relatively easy to understand leverage using on-chain analytics showing open positions. Of course there are leveraged positions that are likely not to be visible. But that's partly how the whole ecosystem operates. It's also partly why many within the crypto community understand the 85+% downside risks. The average Wayne and Gloria are not comfortable with that (loss aversion).
Rentals in Whangarei - older houses, 3 br, full section, in Otangarei, asking price $369,000 recently.
Older house in Ranui, 3 br + sleepout, full section, sold for $926,000 below RV $1,126,000. Short notice auction.
A section, bought for $35,000 in Central North Island, two years ago, now listed at a price of $99,000.
It'll be interesting to see how some of those remote pieces of land bought for speculation do. If property is no longer an easy ride fundamentals might play more a role.
I've been wondering about this, as I would be keen to get a small piece of land (not one of those farm sub-divisons) somewhere up north or perhaps mangatawhiri way. Sure the people who have been buying up costal/beach properties are not looking at quick bucks? Sorry, not particularly insightful, I'm just kind of thinking out loud.
If things really turn to crap then a plot in the country with some fruit and nut trees is a nice backstop.
I'm part prepper I guess.
If things really turn to crap you are going to need a lot of lead because you will not be holding onto anything without it.
Indeed. I occasionally watch American preppers on youtube if I'm feeling too happy and the euphemism they use is "brass", and "training".
If things have gotten to that point they'll probably die from a lack of antibiotics before getting shot anyway.
If one sees the result, is not good as many properties have been passed and of few houses that have been sold, some have gone much below CV and few have gone above CV (Well presented house, it seems or in high demand premium property like the one sold in Sunnyhills and is splashed all over media by lobbyist as poster house signifing change is housing market toward another boom ).
Over situation is bad and and real estate lobby is trying to find some positive narrative to spin but think this time environment is different and will be hard for FOMOmongers.
its hard to spin when the vast majority of homes are just not selling at current expectations. Our ability to pay more has hit a brick wall & every time rates go up this brick wall moves back.
Only one thing that can give...
Maybe a few of the cashed up still consider it safer in housing
Just how safe are TD's in the larger banks right now?
Impossible to be conclusive on such low volumes. Waikato is 100% (1/1)! Could be very much 0% next week (0/1).
Another totally anecdotal observation...but nonetheless, here we go..
A few weeks back I posted about my TradeMe watchlist "Lost" page. For context I've kept the same criteria for my watchlist for about 2 years. At that time, of the 25 properties on the first page, the vast majority were delisted without selling.
Now...after the initial spring "bounce" it's 19:6 in favour of sold. And the 10 most recent to drop off into the Lost page have all been sold. So definitely a change.
Of course only one of them has the price that it sold at available, so I can't make any conclusions as to whether it's due to buyers being more positive or vendors being more realistic. But theoretically I could backfill that info if I tracked it. I was thinking of doing that - making a Trademe Watchlist Lost Index (TWLI) - and see if there's any correlation with prices over time. That might be interesting :)
Close family just went unconditional, got the price they were asking so are now cashed up and looking. They'll stay with us till they find what they want where they want it. Their buyer obviously sold too so some things moving.
Things are still moving. If you have sold and are going to buy in the same market you don't really care. Cannot put your life on hold for years you just get on with it. The older you get the less you care, time is of the essence.
The downturn is all over the world. Some countries are going insolvent, other 80% inflation more are raising rates. US debt boom waiting to go off but some people still think NZ house market is safe.
Buying and selling in the same market is a nonsense, it depends of what are your plans. Rising markets are favorable for people downsizing or exiting, on the other hand falling markets are good for FHBs or people upgrading.
A simple example to illustrate. Say you bought a 3 bedroom house for 800k and at that time 4 bedroom houses were 900k.
Two years later you decide to upgrade, let's look at two scenarios:
- market fell 20%, you sell your 3 bedroom house for 640k (boohoo) and buy a 4 bedroom house for 720k. Gap is 80k.
- market rose 20%, you sell your 3 bedroom house for 960k (yippie!) and buy a 4 bedroom house for 1,080k. Gap is 120k.
If clearance rates start to increase it will mean that the sellers are beginning to meet the market. Transactions still need to occur for prices to go down.
At the moment sellers are still overpowering the buyers with momentum to the downside.
Red candles for NZ housing.
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