Labour's party list for Election 2023 leaves little room for new MPs

The Labour Party has revealed its Election 2023 party list with a dramatic fall from grace for former Cabinet minister, Michael Wood. 

He has been ranked at number 45 on the list and will likely have to win his stronghold seat in Mount Roskill in order to get back into Parliament. 

On current polling, Labour are likely to win a little over 40 seats in Parliament, down from 65 seats in 2020, which means more than 20 serving MPs are unlikely to make it back in October. 

This means some recognisable names will have to win their electorates. 

That will be easy for Helen White in Mount Albert, Ingrid Leary in Taieri, Arena Williams in Manurewa, and Phil Twyford in Te Atatu — all with sub-40 rankings. 

But will be more difficult for Sarah Pallet (#51) in Ilam, where she faces a National candidate trying to win back a blue seat and also TOP challenger Raf Manji. 

David Farrar, who provides polling for the National Party, estimated on his blog that Labour would get just eight list MPs into Parliament based on its current polling. 

They would be Grant Robertson, Jan Tinetti, Ayesha Verrall, Willie Jackson, Willow-Jean Prime, Adrian Rurawhe, Andrew Little, and David Parker. 

Farrar made a number of assumptions about which electorate seats would be won to reach that conclusion. But if correct, it would leave even high ranking members on the outside. 

Associate Minister Priyanca Radhakrishnan and future-star Camilla Belich could both miss out on current polling. As could caucus colleagues Shanan Halbert, Glen Bennet, Vanushi Walters, and Dan Rosewarne. 

Georgie Dansey, who fought a losing battle for Labour in the Hamilton East by-election, has been rewarded with a decent list spot at #31 — but the party would need close to 36% of votes to get her into Parliament. 

She’s one of just a handful of new candidates on the list this year and the highest ranked as well. Toni Boynton is at #39, George Hampton at #41, Fleur Fitzsimons at #56, and Ruben Davidson at #57. 

Labour would need near 45% of the vote to get them all in. However, the latter two candidates should be able to win their respective electorates, Ronogtai and Christchurch East.

Tamati Coffey, who had been set to resign this election, will likely need to win Kiri Allan’s East Coast seat if he wants to make it back after all.

Following the departure of Allan from the party, Willow-Jean Prime was moved up to #9 and Jo Luxton rose to #19.

Prime Minister Chris Hipkins said the list reflected “the enormous talent within our existing caucus, as well as the diversity of New Zealanders from right around the country”. 

“With such a large and talented existing caucus and so many strong new candidates, this was an incredibly challenging list to put together.” 

When asked how many MPs he expected to have after the election, he simply replied: “heaps”.