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Reader poll

Which of these factors is likely to have the biggest impact on our economy over the next 12 months?

Choices

Inflation

USD correction continues

US Fed's downgraded economic assessment drives USD down; AUD and NZD benefactors from USD slide; NZD continues to climb against AUD

US interest rate increase already priced into exchange rates

Roger J Kerr says local importers should be topping-up hedging levels with current NZD/USD rates near the top end of the range

Watching the same things

Roger J Kerr sees US rate rises just 3 or 4 months away. He is also very sceptical  on 'inflation expectation' surveys, even the RBNZ's one

Oil prices remain vulnerable

Inventories of stored oil at highest point since 1982; if Iran commence exporting again further downward pressure on oil prices; profit taking on USD ahead of FOMC meeting

RBNZ cannot hide from a strong economy

Roger J Kerr says the risk of medium to long term rates increasing is dependent upon US bond market movements, not the RBNZ or the NZ economy or our inflation

Kiwi dollar remains within new trading range

Roger J Kerr sees the NZD-USD rate holding between 72 and 76 USc and sees the reasons in the US and Australia as much as local influences

Auckland housing not a factor in OCR

Wheeler says Auckland housing surge not a factor in OCR decision as RBNZ not seeing same 'wealth effect' on spending and CPI as 2006-07,; but still a concern for financial stability

US employment underpins dollar gains

Improving US economic picture boosts Chinese exports and has NZD/USD crashing through support levels; another Chinese interest rate cut to try and stabilise economic growth

Economic forces returning to lift US long-term interest rates

Don't allow deflation doomsayers to dissuade you from prudent risk management of interest costs, says Roger J Kerr

Rapid retreat from 0.7600 for the Kiwi dollar

Roger J Kerr points out the strong relationship we have with rainfall and why the current dry sets the tone for the currency