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Reader poll

Which country's economy is likely to improve the most in 2015?

Choices

Inflation

Yellen clarity stirs markets

Clear signals from the US Fed that policy rates will rise mid 2015 sees wholesale markets bid up benchmark rates. NZ swaps follow

Friday's guest Top 10

Christian Hawkesby on the conventional & scientific US Fed, missing inflation, the falling oil price, the fall of bond king Bill Gross, Dilbert & more

Heightened risk aversion

Tightening and flattening of rate curves continues with long end falls continuing

NZ yields flat

Tight NZGB issuance confirmed, UST yields declined as Russian risks play out; eyes now on Fed signals

Markets wind down & liquidity dries up

Lower levels of liquidity leaves prices vulnerable to volatility; NZD could come under pressure if Fonterra auction is weaker; Aussie dollar continues to struggle

Lower Govt issuance expected

NZGB to attract more scarcity premium although key risk remains currency exposure; swaps lower and flatter again

NZ$ volatility to continue in 2015

Roger J Kerr offers his forecasts for currency movements in 2015, sees global risk sentiment turning negative, US raising rates in Q3, WMP prices recovering. Your view?

More flattening pressure

NZ swap yields lower as US and German benchmark bond yields fall further. Short end in NZ stable, pressure lower at long end

Is Wheeler's OCR too tight?

Bernard Hickey looks at whether the Reserve Bank Governor is running monetary policy too tight and how long before he decides surprisingly low inflation is actually structural rather than cyclical

RBNZ delivers subtle tightening bias

Markets now expecting NZ OCR hikes to 4.25% by 2017 after restart in rises in late 2015; ECB TLTRO offer spurned as expected