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Roger J Kerr's picture

Roger is a partner at PwC. He specialises in fixed interest securities and is a commentator on economics and markets. More can be found at rogeradvice.com.
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Articles by Roger J Kerr


Two 2015 OCR hikes 'more than likely'

Roger J Kerr says a healthy job market and a stronger economy will boost residential property sales, taking advantage of low interest rates

3 questions answered on the NZ$'s direction

Roger J Kerr says he likelihood of a deterioration in our economic fundamentals over the next 12 months 'appear remote', so more falls by the NZD seem unlikley

News of the death of inflation is much exaggerated!

Roger J Kerr points out recent surveys show that NZ businesses intend to raise prices, and that as capacity constraints grow those rises are likely

Kiwi dollar resilient in the face of a stronger USD

Roger J Kerr says the kiwi dollar and NZ will still be a reasonably attractive destination for global funds as our interest rates remain 4% above the alternatives

Corporate bond issuance opportunities being neglected

Roger J Kerr points out there is a good opportunity for corporates to issue significant new fixed income bonds, but he also sees the inhibitions

Kiwi dollar holds its ground despite lower interest rate outlook

Roger J Kerr says that despite an expected dovish RBNZ Statement this week, 3% economic growth when inflation is 1% means real wealth is being created and that will support the NZD

Bond markets over-react to Ebola scare

Roger J Kerr reviews a bond market on edge, spooked by many things including some non-economic ones. But it is economic fundamentals that show the real direction

Kiwi dollar establishes itself in new trading range

Roger J Kerr expects the NZD to stay below 80 USc and hold its own against the euro. He also warns of inflation complacency

US Treasury Bond yields hit new lows

Roger J Kerr wonders whether the yields for US Treasury bonds are defying logic, and points to the non-economic drivers that may be behind the falls

Kiwi dollar holds its ground at lower levels

Roger J Kerr explains why the Kiwi dollar has consolidated and stabilised, and does not appear to be prone to further aggressive selling

Widening variance of forecasts for interest rates

Roger J Kerr reminds us that nearly all our inflation comes from the supply side of the economy, so the impact of lower dairy incomes may not be as pronounced as some fear

Why 0.6500 for the NZD/USD exchange rate will be a hard ask

Roger J Kerr doubts the 65 USc view of John Key will be reached, suggesting most manufacturers and exporters have moved on from seeking a 'cheap dollar' strategy

Lower currency will feed through to higher inflation

Roger J Kerr says fuel and freight set to rise in cost soon, other imports to follow; RBNZ taking calculated risk price hikes can be contained within policy limits

Kiwi’s downward spiral gets Wheeler turbo-boost

Roger J Kerr argues it's hard to see the NZ$ plummeting another 10c against the US$ as it has done since mid-July; Says NZ interest rates still among developed world's highest

Interest rate outlook not benign; markets complacent

Roger J Kerr sees business-as-usual post election, with the NZD weakening, exports and investment rising, and inflation risk higher. Interest rates are going up

Voters endorse a strong economy

Roger J Kerr says expect a short-term surge of appreciation for the NZ dollar over coming days, potentially up one cent

RBNZ statement more dovish than the expected bland

Roger J Kerr sees "one hell of a turnaround" by the RBNZ in the way they look at their 90-day interest rate projections

Why offshore investors are ditching the Kiwi dollar

Roger J Kerr explains why international sentiment has turned against the $NZ, but why there won't be a 'massive currency devaluation'

RBNZ MPS 'only of passing interest'

Roger J Kerr says there could be a similar pattern of OCR increases from the RBNZ next year as there has been this year

Offshore players lose interest in the Kiwi

Roger J Kerr says offshore investors now have a completely changed perception of the NZ economy and are now prioritising Australia