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Roger J Kerr's picture

Roger is a partner at PwC. He specialises in fixed interest securities and is a commentator on economics and markets. More can be found at rogeradvice.com.
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Articles by Roger J Kerr


NZD direction to determine inflation outcomes

Roger J Kerr warns that interest rate increases could be a lot sooner and more severe if the NZ dollar falls sharply

Kiwi dollar diverging from critical lead-indicators

Roger J Kerr says a surprise 'no change' OCR decision would be much more effective to pull the NZ dollar down than jawboning

The risks of rising US interest rates

Roger J Kerr wonders who will buy US bonds now that the Fed is cutting back; selling pressure will force yields higher

NZ dollar in the twilight zone

Roger J Kerr says the Trade Weighted Index is looking down the barrel of a significant drop, following whole milk powder prices lower

Mortgage borrowers taking risks they do not need to take

Roger J Kerr says because mortgage holders aren't fixing long, OCR increases this year and next will bite the retail and housing sectors earlier and harder

NZD intervention not needed, falling WMP prices will do it!

Roger J Kerr says it would be more effective for the RBNZ to not increase the OCR in April, surprise the markets causing NZD selling and depreciation

'Not forecasts as most would understand them'

Roger J Kerr looks at the official interest rate 'forecasts' by the RBNZ and sees them more as working assumptions, changeable as circumstances alter

Some darker clouds on the fx horizon

Roger J Kerr says that Yellen's timing and the wholemilk powder prices drops are not positive for the Kiwi dollar

Serious inflation problem uncovered

Roger J Kerr says there's a major inflation problem in the NZ economy that the RBNZ seems unable or unwilling to address

AUD and WMP prices now the focus for future NZD direction

Roger J Kerr sees the lack of flow-through since the OCR decision as confirming offshore investors are wary of the high NZD

Always risks around 'sure bets'

Roger J Kerr looks at the risks or developments that could force the RBNZ to re-assess and adjust the expected pace of OCR increases

OCR rise already priced into NZ dollar

Roger J Kerr expects the long-term resistance for the NZ dollar around US85c to prevail again

Why long-term interest rates will move higher

Roger J Kerr sees US growth, capacity utilisation and inflation as the main drivers of global interest rate directions and he sees big rises over the next year

Resistance at 84 USc for the Kiwi yet again

Roger J Kerr says despite the diverging economic paths, the NZD and the AUD will both find their own separate lower levels against the USD

Impact of higher rates being under-estimated

Roger J Kerr sees a lot of interest rate risk being taken with mortgages, which may foreshadow subdued consumer spending over the next two years

USD currency 'headwinds' dealt with

Roger J Kerr finds that smaller exporters with NZD/AUD risks manage their financial affairs in a superior manner to the big boys

Testing time for RBNZ coming up

Roger J Kerr tells Graeme Wheeler to take the slow boat to the normalisation of our short-term interest rates

Risks loom for the Kiwi dollar

Roger J Kerr reminds us that our structural current account deficit requires NZ to be liked by foreign investors; he warns of consequences from arbitary political change

Aussie dollar rebound: temporary or permanent?

Roger J Kerr looks at why the NZD has not fallen to US$0.80 yet and what is ahead. Your view?

Keeping our debt attractive

Roger J Kerr looks at the underlying reasons long term base rates and related spreads are set to increase