Roger J Kerr

Roger J Kerr says to some degree, the Warsh appointment does alleviate worries that the Fed’s independence from political interference would be compromised through Trump’s choice of the new Chair

Roger J Kerr says to some degree, the Warsh appointment does alleviate worries that the Fed’s independence from political interference would be compromised through Trump’s choice of the new Chair

Roger J Kerr says the RBNZ should have foreseen 'a much stronger economy and high inflation.' He is also watching the 'sell America' trade, chances of yen intervention, and the pressure piling up on the RBA

Roger J Kerr says the RBNZ should have foreseen 'a much stronger economy and high inflation.' He is also watching the 'sell America' trade, chances of yen intervention, and the pressure piling up on the RBA

Roger J Kerr says Governor Breman may be forced to eat her own words that the interest rate markets have become ahead of themselves in pricing-in interest rate increases later in 2026

Roger J Kerr says Governor Breman may be forced to eat her own words that the interest rate markets have become ahead of themselves in pricing-in interest rate increases later in 2026

Roger J Kerr is watching US jobs deteriorate rapidly – and the FX markets are slow to work it out

Roger J Kerr is watching US jobs deteriorate rapidly – and the FX markets are slow to work it out

Roger J Kerr sees more confidence around getting a resurging NZ economy in 2026. But overhanging that will be US jobs data that will set the tone for Fed interest rate decisions

Roger J Kerr sees more confidence around getting a resurging NZ economy in 2026. But overhanging that will be US jobs data that will set the tone for Fed interest rate decisions

Roger J Kerr looks ahead seeing the US cutting interest rates when most other countries are either increasing or holding. US dollar depreciation appears likely given mediocre US economic performance and Trump policy uncertainties

Roger J Kerr looks ahead seeing the US cutting interest rates when most other countries are either increasing or holding. US dollar depreciation appears likely given mediocre US economic performance and Trump policy uncertainties

Roger J Kerr says September quarter GDP numbers this week should confirm once and for all the performance of our economy in 2025 has been misunderstood, misread and misreported by the majority of economic forecasters

Roger J Kerr says September quarter GDP numbers this week should confirm once and for all the performance of our economy in 2025 has been misunderstood, misread and misreported by the majority of economic forecasters

Roger J Kerr says the likely Fed appointment is clearly another negative factor for the US dollar value as global investors/fund managers lose confidence in the independence of the Federal Reserve

Roger J Kerr says the likely Fed appointment is clearly another negative factor for the US dollar value as global investors/fund managers lose confidence in the independence of the Federal Reserve

Roger J Kerr says the poor quality of New Zealand’s economic data is damaging to our reputation as an advanced trading economy

Roger J Kerr says the poor quality of New Zealand’s economic data is damaging to our reputation as an advanced trading economy

Roger J Kerr says US interest rate markets are already placing their bets on which way the Fed decision will go

Roger J Kerr says US interest rate markets are already placing their bets on which way the Fed decision will go

Roger J Kerr says unless the RBNZ is seeing something he is not, the risks of over-stimulating seem to exceed those of just sitting pat

Roger J Kerr says unless the RBNZ is seeing something he is not, the risks of over-stimulating seem to exceed those of just sitting pat

Roger J Kerr says upcoming events are likely to prove negative for the US economy and therefore the US dollar value

Roger J Kerr says upcoming events are likely to prove negative for the US economy and therefore the US dollar value

Roger J Kerr says the latest bout of US dollar strength is likely to be as short-lived as all the previous upticks in the USD Index since the start of 2025

Roger J Kerr says the latest bout of US dollar strength is likely to be as short-lived as all the previous upticks in the USD Index since the start of 2025

Roger J Kerr sees markets expecting a US Fed rate cut believing the tariff-cost impact has largely passed, offset by other costs being restrained. For NZ, the bad news is now all behind us, and the NZD should rise from here

Roger J Kerr sees markets expecting a US Fed rate cut believing the tariff-cost impact has largely passed, offset by other costs being restrained. For NZ, the bad news is now all behind us, and the NZD should rise from here

Roger J Kerr says global currency markets continue to “fly blind” due to the absence of up-to-date US economic data

Roger J Kerr says global currency markets continue to “fly blind” due to the absence of up-to-date US economic data

Roger J Kerr says it's no wonder that economists and market analysts are reverting to high-frequency alternative measures of economic activity

Roger J Kerr says it's no wonder that economists and market analysts are reverting to high-frequency alternative measures of economic activity

Roger J Kerr says the risk of overcooking the monetary stimulus and pushing interest rates too low is that this would stimulate another debt-fuelled housing boom

Roger J Kerr says the risk of overcooking the monetary stimulus and pushing interest rates too low is that this would stimulate another debt-fuelled housing boom

Roger J Kerr offers up some advice on the foibles and quirks of the New Zealand economy for the incoming RBNZ Governor Anna Breman

Roger J Kerr offers up some advice on the foibles and quirks of the New Zealand economy for the incoming RBNZ Governor Anna Breman

Roger J Kerr says the Reserve Bank would be wise to be very circumspect in respect to the -0.90% GDP outcome for the June quarter

Roger J Kerr says the Reserve Bank would be wise to be very circumspect in respect to the -0.90% GDP outcome for the June quarter

Roger J Kerr says the conventional wisdom that elevated political risk is negative for a particular currency has been challenged by recent events

Roger J Kerr says the conventional wisdom that elevated political risk is negative for a particular currency has been challenged by recent events

Roger J Kerr says the sharp drop in US employment takes precedence for the Fed and that is why there could be three or four interest rates cuts before the end of the year

Roger J Kerr says the sharp drop in US employment takes precedence for the Fed and that is why there could be three or four interest rates cuts before the end of the year

Roger J Kerr says the current Government has - thankfully - put out the welcome mat for offshore capital to invest here

Roger J Kerr says the current Government has - thankfully - put out the welcome mat for offshore capital to invest here

Roger J Kerr says the RBNZ's actions last week suggest it is again looking backwards at weaker than forecast economic results rather than determining policy based on forecasts of future economic conditions

Roger J Kerr says the RBNZ's actions last week suggest it is again looking backwards at weaker than forecast economic results rather than determining policy based on forecasts of future economic conditions

Roger J Kerr says the Fed will need to shift promptly from the current 'moderately restrictive' monetary policy to somewhere nearer a 'neutral' setting

Roger J Kerr says the Fed will need to shift promptly from the current 'moderately restrictive' monetary policy to somewhere nearer a 'neutral' setting

Roger J Kerr says the probability of a jumbo 0.50% US interest rate cut in September will increase if upcoming economic data prints on the softer side - which he expects it to do

Roger J Kerr says the probability of a jumbo 0.50% US interest rate cut in September will increase if upcoming economic data prints on the softer side - which he expects it to do