Roger J Kerr

Roger J Kerr says watch the Japanese yen and the Australian dollar for signals about how our currency will move. But the US signals are too confusing at present to make much sense out of

Roger J Kerr says watch the Japanese yen and the Australian dollar for signals about how our currency will move. But the US signals are too confusing at present to make much sense out of

Roger J Kerr says a “quick end to the war” scenario appears more likely than alternatives. And he thinks that capital inflows to New Zealand might start exceeding outflows, positive for the NZD

Roger J Kerr says a “quick end to the war” scenario appears more likely than alternatives. And he thinks that capital inflows to New Zealand might start exceeding outflows, positive for the NZD

Roger J Kerr looks at the fast-changing influences on currencies and the shifting influences on the US Federal Reserve's FOMC

Roger J Kerr looks at the fast-changing influences on currencies and the shifting influences on the US Federal Reserve's FOMC

Roger J Kerr asks how and when might the NZD/AUD cross-rate turn, after the RBNZ’s “hawkish hold” is positive for the Kiwi dollar

Roger J Kerr asks how and when might the NZD/AUD cross-rate turn, after the RBNZ’s “hawkish hold” is positive for the Kiwi dollar

Roger J Kerr asks if the Japanese are preparing for Yen currency intervention again? And why the Chinese Yuan has defied the odds against the stronger USD?

Roger J Kerr asks if the Japanese are preparing for Yen currency intervention again? And why the Chinese Yuan has defied the odds against the stronger USD?

Roger J Kerr says the open question for the future direction of the NZD against the USD is whether a change in the interest rate differential between New Zealand and the US will also stimulate similar NZ dollar gains on its own account

Roger J Kerr says the open question for the future direction of the NZD against the USD is whether a change in the interest rate differential between New Zealand and the US will also stimulate similar NZ dollar gains on its own account

Roger J Kerr says the markets are still seeking the signal that President Trump has found his 'off-ramp' to end the conflict

Roger J Kerr says the markets are still seeking the signal that President Trump has found his 'off-ramp' to end the conflict

Roger J Kerr says it will require a confirmation that the Iranian military and Government are on the brink of surrendering, to turn the markets around

Roger J Kerr says it will require a confirmation that the Iranian military and Government are on the brink of surrendering, to turn the markets around

Roger J Kerr invites us to pick how the current conflict may play out

Roger J Kerr invites us to pick how the current conflict may play out

Roger J Kerr says both the passive and active forces determining the NZ dollar value appear much more positive than negative as we move further into 2026

Roger J Kerr says both the passive and active forces determining the NZ dollar value appear much more positive than negative as we move further into 2026

Roger J Kerr says there have to be major question marks over expected further decreases in both non-tradable inflation and tradable inflation this year

Roger J Kerr says there have to be major question marks over expected further decreases in both non-tradable inflation and tradable inflation this year

Roger J Kerr says local economic forecasters have been consistently underestimating the level of confidence and actual economic activity over the last two months

Roger J Kerr says local economic forecasters have been consistently underestimating the level of confidence and actual economic activity over the last two months

Roger J Kerr says the markets are struggling to draw clearcut conclusions on whether US inflation and employment are going higher or lower

Roger J Kerr says the markets are struggling to draw clearcut conclusions on whether US inflation and employment are going higher or lower

Roger J Kerr says to some degree, the Warsh appointment does alleviate worries that the Fed’s independence from political interference would be compromised through Trump’s choice of the new Chair

Roger J Kerr says to some degree, the Warsh appointment does alleviate worries that the Fed’s independence from political interference would be compromised through Trump’s choice of the new Chair

Roger J Kerr says the RBNZ should have foreseen 'a much stronger economy and high inflation.' He is also watching the 'sell America' trade, chances of yen intervention, and the pressure piling up on the RBA

Roger J Kerr says the RBNZ should have foreseen 'a much stronger economy and high inflation.' He is also watching the 'sell America' trade, chances of yen intervention, and the pressure piling up on the RBA

Roger J Kerr says Governor Breman may be forced to eat her own words that the interest rate markets have become ahead of themselves in pricing-in interest rate increases later in 2026

Roger J Kerr says Governor Breman may be forced to eat her own words that the interest rate markets have become ahead of themselves in pricing-in interest rate increases later in 2026

Roger J Kerr is watching US jobs deteriorate rapidly – and the FX markets are slow to work it out

Roger J Kerr is watching US jobs deteriorate rapidly – and the FX markets are slow to work it out

Roger J Kerr sees more confidence around getting a resurging NZ economy in 2026. But overhanging that will be US jobs data that will set the tone for Fed interest rate decisions

Roger J Kerr sees more confidence around getting a resurging NZ economy in 2026. But overhanging that will be US jobs data that will set the tone for Fed interest rate decisions

Roger J Kerr looks ahead seeing the US cutting interest rates when most other countries are either increasing or holding. US dollar depreciation appears likely given mediocre US economic performance and Trump policy uncertainties

Roger J Kerr looks ahead seeing the US cutting interest rates when most other countries are either increasing or holding. US dollar depreciation appears likely given mediocre US economic performance and Trump policy uncertainties

Roger J Kerr says September quarter GDP numbers this week should confirm once and for all the performance of our economy in 2025 has been misunderstood, misread and misreported by the majority of economic forecasters

Roger J Kerr says September quarter GDP numbers this week should confirm once and for all the performance of our economy in 2025 has been misunderstood, misread and misreported by the majority of economic forecasters

Roger J Kerr says the likely Fed appointment is clearly another negative factor for the US dollar value as global investors/fund managers lose confidence in the independence of the Federal Reserve

Roger J Kerr says the likely Fed appointment is clearly another negative factor for the US dollar value as global investors/fund managers lose confidence in the independence of the Federal Reserve

Roger J Kerr says the poor quality of New Zealand’s economic data is damaging to our reputation as an advanced trading economy

Roger J Kerr says the poor quality of New Zealand’s economic data is damaging to our reputation as an advanced trading economy

Roger J Kerr says US interest rate markets are already placing their bets on which way the Fed decision will go

Roger J Kerr says US interest rate markets are already placing their bets on which way the Fed decision will go

Roger J Kerr says unless the RBNZ is seeing something he is not, the risks of over-stimulating seem to exceed those of just sitting pat

Roger J Kerr says unless the RBNZ is seeing something he is not, the risks of over-stimulating seem to exceed those of just sitting pat

Roger J Kerr says upcoming events are likely to prove negative for the US economy and therefore the US dollar value

Roger J Kerr says upcoming events are likely to prove negative for the US economy and therefore the US dollar value