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Roger J Kerr's picture

Roger is a partner at PwC. He specialises in fixed interest securities and is a commentator on economics and markets. More can be found at rogeradvice.com.
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Articles by Roger J Kerr


Market forces on the NZ dollar evenly balanced

Roger J Kerr assesses how the strong greenback and its upcoming positives will impact the NZD and finds much of the USD strength already priced in, and the RBNZ looking ahead

US interest rate increase already priced into exchange rates

Roger J Kerr says local importers should be topping-up hedging levels with current NZD/USD rates near the top end of the range

Watching the same things

Roger J Kerr sees US rate rises just 3 or 4 months away. He is also very sceptical  on 'inflation expectation' surveys, even the RBNZ's one

RBNZ cannot hide from a strong economy

Roger J Kerr says the risk of medium to long term rates increasing is dependent upon US bond market movements, not the RBNZ or the NZ economy or our inflation

Kiwi dollar remains within new trading range

Roger J Kerr sees the NZD-USD rate holding between 72 and 76 USc and sees the reasons in the US and Australia as much as local influences

Economic forces returning to lift US long-term interest rates

Don't allow deflation doomsayers to dissuade you from prudent risk management of interest costs, says Roger J Kerr

Rapid retreat from 0.7600 for the Kiwi dollar

Roger J Kerr points out the strong relationship we have with rainfall and why the current dry sets the tone for the currency

Rating the chances of change

Roger J Kerr asks how sustainable the current totally “flat” NZ interest rate yield curve is

Stuck in a groove

Roger J Kerr sees a number of balancing factors both positive and negative for the NZ dollar; meaning the currency is likely to stay in its current range

Smart money already returning to Australia

Roger J Kerr says you should 'sell the Kiwi against the AUD' when you see media reports predicting parity

NZ long-term interest rates likely to catch up to the US

Roger J Kerr points out that there is likely a big jump coming in longer tenor swap rates and that creates opportunities for wholesale borrowers

Taking the temperature

Adopting a 'heat map' approach, Roger J Kerr assesses whether the 'heat' is coming on for interest rate trends to reverse

The defiant flying Kiwi

Roger J Kerr says rising dairy prices and the exit of speculators are among issues helping the value of the NZ currency - but there are still risks ahead

Turning point for the AUD?

Roger J Kerr thinks the lower AUD and much more upside in Australian equities relative to other markets will boost the Aussie currency in 2015. Your view?

Don't be complacent

There's no certainty the 4 key prices for the NZ economy will just trend lower, Roger J Kerr argues. Says complacency about inflation risks would be a risk in itself

Low inflation view contains risks

Roger J Kerr wonders how Graeme Wheeler can call the NZD 'unjustifiably high' when it is now back to the levels they were targeting

Correction coming

Roger J Kerr thinks the NZD soon will get a boost from stronger data, and the recent falls may stoke tradeable inflation fears. Time for exporters to hedge he says. Your view?

Is the NZ$ over-sold at US74c?

Roger J Kerr thinks the NZ dollar could start rising again on Thursday as markets discover the RBNZ is not about to become complacent on inflation. Your view?

No expectation of dramatic change from RBNZ

Roger J Kerr does not expect a dovish stance from the RBNZ on Thursday and does not expect him to follow the Canadians

FX market holes as big as those in Swiss cheese

Roger J Kerr thinks currency markets have already priced in the lower values for the euro ahead of the ECB announcement. The NZ$ should hold its level he says. Your view?