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Roger J Kerr's picture

Roger is a partner at PwC. He specialises in fixed interest securities and is a commentator on economics and markets. More can be found at rogeradvice.com.
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Articles by Roger J Kerr


Slow recognition of emerging economic headwinds

Roger J Kerr says confidence levels remaining high is understandable, however not that sensible. But he also sees an 'unexpected' opportunity to fix interest rates long-term

Stars finally aligning for a weaker Kiwi dollar

Roger J Kerr says our 'rock star' economy is suffering from smaller audiences and declining fan interest because our rosy economic picture has wilted

Lead indicators more instructive than historic inflation

Roger J Kerr sees six reasons consumer demand, labour market conditions and supply-side inflation pressures should be seen by the RBNZ as more important than high house prices

Consequences from the high dollar slow to be recognised

Roger J Kerr says the 'stark reality' is the strong NZ dollar is causing weaker economic fundamentals that are about to hit the economy

Inflation risks from the housing market exaggerated

Roger J Kerr says migration trends have been misinterpreted and housing activity levels are moderating; prices follow the activity levels. He doubts that inflation risks have increased

Time for the RBNZ to adopt the Aussie approach

Roger J Kerr says lower commodity prices, a slowing housing market, and better US prospects should have the RBNZ aggressively talking down the NZD

Questions unanswered, consequences unintended

Roger J Kerr points to seven things that just do not add up, seemingly showing that markets seem unable to price risk properly

Another intervention opportunity for the RBNZ

Roger J Kerr is frustrated the kiwi dollar remains so high for exporters, especially as the RBNZ spurns every opportunity to encourage realignment to more sustainable levels

Building a case for a one-off exception on inflation

Roger J Kerr asks whether monetary policy should be tightened when the majority of the inflation pressures are coming from a single source, construction costs

Record Kiwi highs unlikely to be surpassed

Roger J Kerr says the return of the NZD to 80 USc has been postponed in timing by RBNZ policy choices but not fundamentally changed

Right judgment call or “missed a trick” by the RBNZ?

Roger J Kerr says the RBNZ has invited global financial markets awash with cash to buy more NZ dollars to gain a higher yield return

Hawkish RBNZ sends Kiwi dollar higher

Roger J Kerr says respite is on the way for exporters; the USD is strengthening and milk powder prices are falling

Tough for RBNZ to deliver on all expectations

Roger J Kerr says the RBNZ needs to be innovative, as it has been in the housing market with its LVR policy, if it wants to rein in the strong NZ dollar

RBNZ need to follow-through on NZ dollar warning

Roger J Kerr says the RBNZ can only retain credibility for its warnings of divergence between dairy prices and the NZ$ if it acts to get the currency realigned

Opportunity for borrowers to extend duration of interest rate fixing

Roger J Kerr says the low 2/10 differential is just not sustainable in the medium to longer term, presenting options for borrowers with fixed rate swaps maturing over the next 2 years

NZ Dollar sentiment shift confirmed

Roger J Kerr says retreat by the NZD has been due to unwinding of carry trades and NZD/AUD speculative positions

Time to revise down the growth and inflation forecasts

Roger J Kerr says lower dairy income and lower growth means that the RBNZ won't be as aggressive with their OCR hikes

A major risk unfolding before our eyes

Roger J Kerr says the FX markets are waiting to be told that the NZ economic fundamentals have weakened

Speed wobbles for the rock-star economy

Roger J Kerr says our economy is highly dependent on climate, export prices and currency and therefore has high vulerabilities and economic risk

Forces holding back US$ finally turning

Roger J Kerr sees the tide turning in favour of the USD internationally; the local FX market is now expects the RBNZ to revise down their GDP growth and inflation forecasts