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Roger J Kerr's picture

Roger is a partner at PwC. He specialises in fixed interest securities and is a commentator on economics and markets. More can be found at rogeradvice.com.
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Articles by Roger J Kerr


Smart money already returning to Australia

Roger J Kerr says you should 'sell the Kiwi against the AUD' when you see media reports predicting parity

NZ long-term interest rates likely to catch up to the US

Roger J Kerr points out that there is likely a big jump coming in longer tenor swap rates and that creates opportunities for wholesale borrowers

Taking the temperature

Adopting a 'heat map' approach, Roger J Kerr assesses whether the 'heat' is coming on for interest rate trends to reverse

The defiant flying Kiwi

Roger J Kerr says rising dairy prices and the exit of speculators are among issues helping the value of the NZ currency - but there are still risks ahead

Turning point for the AUD?

Roger J Kerr thinks the lower AUD and much more upside in Australian equities relative to other markets will boost the Aussie currency in 2015. Your view?

Don't be complacent

There's no certainty the 4 key prices for the NZ economy will just trend lower, Roger J Kerr argues. Says complacency about inflation risks would be a risk in itself

Low inflation view contains risks

Roger J Kerr wonders how Graeme Wheeler can call the NZD 'unjustifiably high' when it is now back to the levels they were targeting

Correction coming

Roger J Kerr thinks the NZD soon will get a boost from stronger data, and the recent falls may stoke tradeable inflation fears. Time for exporters to hedge he says. Your view?

Is the NZ$ over-sold at US74c?

Roger J Kerr thinks the NZ dollar could start rising again on Thursday as markets discover the RBNZ is not about to become complacent on inflation. Your view?

No expectation of dramatic change from RBNZ

Roger J Kerr does not expect a dovish stance from the RBNZ on Thursday and does not expect him to follow the Canadians

FX market holes as big as those in Swiss cheese

Roger J Kerr thinks currency markets have already priced in the lower values for the euro ahead of the ECB announcement. The NZ$ should hold its level he says. Your view?

Flat-lined yield curve sending inaccurate signals

Roger J Kerr does not see the current fall in benchmark bond yields and the rush to safety resulting in lower New Zealand interest rates nor a slowing local economy

NZ$'s US76c-US79c range set to continue

Kiwi dollar continuing to outperform all other currencies against a stronger greenback

'Interest rate market too complacent on inflation'

Inflation doves need to look beyond low historical numbers, says Roger J Kerr

NZ$ volatility to continue in 2015

Roger J Kerr offers his forecasts for currency movements in 2015, sees global risk sentiment turning negative, US raising rates in Q3, WMP prices recovering. Your view?

Economy just too strong to allow interest rate cuts

Roger J Kerr sees the RBNZ holding rates and other policy settings at current levels for for good reasons; sees hikes coming when the US Fed moves

Absence of buyers, USD strength sends Kiwi dollar lower

Roger J Kerr sees the NZD falling below current ranges and RBNZ following the US Fed in raising interest rates, thereby avoiding holding the NZD higher based on rate rises

Two 2015 OCR hikes 'more than likely'

Roger J Kerr says a healthy job market and a stronger economy will boost residential property sales, taking advantage of low interest rates

3 questions answered on the NZ$'s direction

Roger J Kerr says he likelihood of a deterioration in our economic fundamentals over the next 12 months 'appear remote', so more falls by the NZD seem unlikley

News of the death of inflation is much exaggerated!

Roger J Kerr points out recent surveys show that NZ businesses intend to raise prices, and that as capacity constraints grow those rises are likely