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Reader poll

National will be able to form a government without NZ First's support.
47% (48 votes)
Labour, the Greens and NZ First will be able to form a government.
23% (24 votes)
National will need NZ First's support to be able to govern.
23% (24 votes)
We get a hung parliament or minority government.
7% (7 votes)
Total voters: 103

What's the most likely election outcome?

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Roger J Kerr's picture

Roger is a partner at PwC. He specialises in fixed interest securities and is a commentator on economics and markets. More can be found at rogeradvice.com.
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Articles by Roger J Kerr


RBNZ statement more dovish than the expected bland

Roger J Kerr sees "one hell of a turnaround" by the RBNZ in the way they look at their 90-day interest rate projections

Why offshore investors are ditching the Kiwi dollar

Roger J Kerr explains why international sentiment has turned against the $NZ, but why there won't be a 'massive currency devaluation'

RBNZ MPS 'only of passing interest'

Roger J Kerr says there could be a similar pattern of OCR increases from the RBNZ next year as there has been this year

Offshore players lose interest in the Kiwi

Roger J Kerr says offshore investors now have a completely changed perception of the NZ economy and are now prioritising Australia

GDP growth outlook being revised down

Roger J Kerr sees a sharp slowdown coming, probably with inflation. He says borrowers should fix, investors should stay short

All variables point to NZD depreciation continuing

Roger J Kerr sees the NZD at 78 USc in a few weeks as the lower dairy prices bite and the US dollar strengthens - and lower still if there is political uncertainty

'Fix now as low interest rates are unsustainable'

Roger J Kerr says 'market interest rate pricing is far too low in my book'. Once investors get over their geopolitical worries, they will see 'upward momentum is just so compelling'

Commodity price plunge now centre stage

Roger J Kerr says that without rising interest rates to bolster it, the NZD direction will take its cues from commodity prices

Nervous investors send bond yields lower

Roger J Kerr says interest rate risks are moving for more than just the geopolitical aspects; expectations of Yellen's next signals are part of it as well, he says

USD strength still anticipated

Roger J Kerr looks at what is in store for the NZD after the RBNZ rate hike pause and lower dairy prices, both of which now appear to be factored in to current pricing

Don't bet against sharply higher bond yields

Roger J Kerr says interest rate risks have shifted from the short-end to the long-end of the yield curve; rates will rise as the geopolitical risks recede

A messy exit

Roger J Kerr says when there is a decisive break to the downside below 84 USc it will trigger a whole series of stop-loss NZD sell orders as carry-trade investors exit

Political risk premiums to change?

Roger J Kerr looks at the likelihood the risk premium for New Zealand debt could change if we get either a change of Government or a different set of coalition partners

Global appreciation of US$ next NZ$ threat

Roger J Kerr says investors will soon get the idea that the once attractive yield return is not enough to outweigh the risk of currency depreciation

Pressure building on the Federal Reserve to change their tone

Roger J Kerr says the next push upwards in US yields will be the real deal as bond investors seek better real returns

Intervention threat tips the scale

Roger J Kerr says because of hedging, the NZD can depreciate significantly over the next 6-12 months and the impact on inflation will be muted

Slow recognition of emerging economic headwinds

Roger J Kerr says confidence levels remaining high is understandable, however not that sensible. But he also sees an 'unexpected' opportunity to fix interest rates long-term

Stars finally aligning for a weaker Kiwi dollar

Roger J Kerr says our 'rock star' economy is suffering from smaller audiences and declining fan interest because our rosy economic picture has wilted

Lead indicators more instructive than historic inflation

Roger J Kerr sees six reasons consumer demand, labour market conditions and supply-side inflation pressures should be seen by the RBNZ as more important than high house prices

Consequences from the high dollar slow to be recognised

Roger J Kerr says the 'stark reality' is the strong NZ dollar is causing weaker economic fundamentals that are about to hit the economy