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Roger J Kerr's picture

Roger is a partner at PwC. He specialises in fixed interest securities and is a commentator on economics and markets. More can be found at rogeradvice.com.
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Articles by Roger J Kerr


Nervous investors send bond yields lower

Roger J Kerr says interest rate risks are moving for more than just the geopolitical aspects; expectations of Yellen's next signals are part of it as well, he says

USD strength still anticipated

Roger J Kerr looks at what is in store for the NZD after the RBNZ rate hike pause and lower dairy prices, both of which now appear to be factored in to current pricing

Don't bet against sharply higher bond yields

Roger J Kerr says interest rate risks have shifted from the short-end to the long-end of the yield curve; rates will rise as the geopolitical risks recede

A messy exit

Roger J Kerr says when there is a decisive break to the downside below 84 USc it will trigger a whole series of stop-loss NZD sell orders as carry-trade investors exit

Political risk premiums to change?

Roger J Kerr looks at the likelihood the risk premium for New Zealand debt could change if we get either a change of Government or a different set of coalition partners

Global appreciation of US$ next NZ$ threat

Roger J Kerr says investors will soon get the idea that the once attractive yield return is not enough to outweigh the risk of currency depreciation

Pressure building on the Federal Reserve to change their tone

Roger J Kerr says the next push upwards in US yields will be the real deal as bond investors seek better real returns

Intervention threat tips the scale

Roger J Kerr says because of hedging, the NZD can depreciate significantly over the next 6-12 months and the impact on inflation will be muted

Slow recognition of emerging economic headwinds

Roger J Kerr says confidence levels remaining high is understandable, however not that sensible. But he also sees an 'unexpected' opportunity to fix interest rates long-term

Stars finally aligning for a weaker Kiwi dollar

Roger J Kerr says our 'rock star' economy is suffering from smaller audiences and declining fan interest because our rosy economic picture has wilted

Lead indicators more instructive than historic inflation

Roger J Kerr sees six reasons consumer demand, labour market conditions and supply-side inflation pressures should be seen by the RBNZ as more important than high house prices

Consequences from the high dollar slow to be recognised

Roger J Kerr says the 'stark reality' is the strong NZ dollar is causing weaker economic fundamentals that are about to hit the economy

Inflation risks from the housing market exaggerated

Roger J Kerr says migration trends have been misinterpreted and housing activity levels are moderating; prices follow the activity levels. He doubts that inflation risks have increased

Time for the RBNZ to adopt the Aussie approach

Roger J Kerr says lower commodity prices, a slowing housing market, and better US prospects should have the RBNZ aggressively talking down the NZD

Questions unanswered, consequences unintended

Roger J Kerr points to seven things that just do not add up, seemingly showing that markets seem unable to price risk properly

Another intervention opportunity for the RBNZ

Roger J Kerr is frustrated the kiwi dollar remains so high for exporters, especially as the RBNZ spurns every opportunity to encourage realignment to more sustainable levels

Building a case for a one-off exception on inflation

Roger J Kerr asks whether monetary policy should be tightened when the majority of the inflation pressures are coming from a single source, construction costs

Record Kiwi highs unlikely to be surpassed

Roger J Kerr says the return of the NZD to 80 USc has been postponed in timing by RBNZ policy choices but not fundamentally changed

Right judgment call or “missed a trick” by the RBNZ?

Roger J Kerr says the RBNZ has invited global financial markets awash with cash to buy more NZ dollars to gain a higher yield return

Hawkish RBNZ sends Kiwi dollar higher

Roger J Kerr says respite is on the way for exporters; the USD is strengthening and milk powder prices are falling