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Roger J Kerr's picture

Roger is a partner at PwC. He specialises in fixed interest securities and is a commentator on economics and markets. More can be found at rogeradvice.com.
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Articles by Roger J Kerr


FX market holes as big as those in Swiss cheese

Roger J Kerr thinks currency markets have already priced in the lower values for the euro ahead of the ECB announcement. The NZ$ should hold its level he says. Your view?

Flat-lined yield curve sending inaccurate signals

Roger J Kerr does not see the current fall in benchmark bond yields and the rush to safety resulting in lower New Zealand interest rates nor a slowing local economy

NZ$'s US76c-US79c range set to continue

Kiwi dollar continuing to outperform all other currencies against a stronger greenback

'Interest rate market too complacent on inflation'

Inflation doves need to look beyond low historical numbers, says Roger J Kerr

NZ$ volatility to continue in 2015

Roger J Kerr offers his forecasts for currency movements in 2015, sees global risk sentiment turning negative, US raising rates in Q3, WMP prices recovering. Your view?

Economy just too strong to allow interest rate cuts

Roger J Kerr sees the RBNZ holding rates and other policy settings at current levels for for good reasons; sees hikes coming when the US Fed moves

Absence of buyers, USD strength sends Kiwi dollar lower

Roger J Kerr sees the NZD falling below current ranges and RBNZ following the US Fed in raising interest rates, thereby avoiding holding the NZD higher based on rate rises

Two 2015 OCR hikes 'more than likely'

Roger J Kerr says a healthy job market and a stronger economy will boost residential property sales, taking advantage of low interest rates

3 questions answered on the NZ$'s direction

Roger J Kerr says he likelihood of a deterioration in our economic fundamentals over the next 12 months 'appear remote', so more falls by the NZD seem unlikley

News of the death of inflation is much exaggerated!

Roger J Kerr points out recent surveys show that NZ businesses intend to raise prices, and that as capacity constraints grow those rises are likely

Kiwi dollar resilient in the face of a stronger USD

Roger J Kerr says the kiwi dollar and NZ will still be a reasonably attractive destination for global funds as our interest rates remain 4% above the alternatives

Corporate bond issuance opportunities being neglected

Roger J Kerr points out there is a good opportunity for corporates to issue significant new fixed income bonds, but he also sees the inhibitions

Kiwi dollar holds its ground despite lower interest rate outlook

Roger J Kerr says that despite an expected dovish RBNZ Statement this week, 3% economic growth when inflation is 1% means real wealth is being created and that will support the NZD

Bond markets over-react to Ebola scare

Roger J Kerr reviews a bond market on edge, spooked by many things including some non-economic ones. But it is economic fundamentals that show the real direction

Kiwi dollar establishes itself in new trading range

Roger J Kerr expects the NZD to stay below 80 USc and hold its own against the euro. He also warns of inflation complacency

US Treasury Bond yields hit new lows

Roger J Kerr wonders whether the yields for US Treasury bonds are defying logic, and points to the non-economic drivers that may be behind the falls

Kiwi dollar holds its ground at lower levels

Roger J Kerr explains why the Kiwi dollar has consolidated and stabilised, and does not appear to be prone to further aggressive selling

Widening variance of forecasts for interest rates

Roger J Kerr reminds us that nearly all our inflation comes from the supply side of the economy, so the impact of lower dairy incomes may not be as pronounced as some fear

Why 0.6500 for the NZD/USD exchange rate will be a hard ask

Roger J Kerr doubts the 65 USc view of John Key will be reached, suggesting most manufacturers and exporters have moved on from seeking a 'cheap dollar' strategy

Lower currency will feed through to higher inflation

Roger J Kerr says fuel and freight set to rise in cost soon, other imports to follow; RBNZ taking calculated risk price hikes can be contained within policy limits