About
Roger J Kerr is Executive Chairman of Barrington Treasury Services NZ Limited. He has written commentaries on the NZ dollar since 1981.
Roger J Kerr
Latest articles
Roger J Kerr says part of the explanation for the recent NZ dollar stability in the face of a stronger US dollar and weaker global equity markets, is the expectation of a change of Government
9th Oct 23, 8:21am
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Roger J Kerr says part of the explanation for the recent NZ dollar stability in the face of a stronger US dollar and weaker global equity markets, is the expectation of a change of Government
Roger J Kerr says there has been a rapid shift in sentiment and direction of the Kiwi dollar over the last two weeks
2nd Oct 23, 8:35am
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Roger J Kerr says there has been a rapid shift in sentiment and direction of the Kiwi dollar over the last two weeks
Roger J Kerr says the US bond market’s adverse reaction to the Fed's 'interest rates higher for longer' message appears to be an extreme response by bond speculators
25th Sep 23, 9:05am
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Roger J Kerr says the US bond market’s adverse reaction to the Fed's 'interest rates higher for longer' message appears to be an extreme response by bond speculators
Roger J Kerr takes issue with the Reserve Bank's 'bizarre execution' of a foreign exchange transaction to get funds from NZ into US dollars
18th Sep 23, 9:06am
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Roger J Kerr takes issue with the Reserve Bank's 'bizarre execution' of a foreign exchange transaction to get funds from NZ into US dollars
Roger J Kerr says the opportunity will be in front of the next Government to address New Zealand’s lacklustre economic growth performance record
11th Sep 23, 8:11am
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Roger J Kerr says the opportunity will be in front of the next Government to address New Zealand’s lacklustre economic growth performance record
Roger J Kerr says the NZ dollar has only been able to appreciate upwards on three occasions in August over the last 14 years
4th Sep 23, 8:09am
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Roger J Kerr says the NZ dollar has only been able to appreciate upwards on three occasions in August over the last 14 years
Roger J Kerr says despite the abundance of negative economic fundamentals supposedly weighing the Kiwi dollar down, the over-powering offshore forces are likely to deliver the opposite outcome
28th Aug 23, 8:20am
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Roger J Kerr says despite the abundance of negative economic fundamentals supposedly weighing the Kiwi dollar down, the over-powering offshore forces are likely to deliver the opposite outcome
Roger J Kerr says, looking ahead, the increase in US bond yields will not continue and the perceived China risk factor will also abate
21st Aug 23, 8:49am
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Roger J Kerr says, looking ahead, the increase in US bond yields will not continue and the perceived China risk factor will also abate
Roger J Kerr says local NZ factors have not driven the NZD/USD exchange rate movements in recent years, however the remarkably close connection with business confidence should not be ignored
14th Aug 23, 8:32am
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Roger J Kerr says local NZ factors have not driven the NZD/USD exchange rate movements in recent years, however the remarkably close connection with business confidence should not be ignored
Roger J Kerr says the evidence is gathering that the US labour market is finally softening and with that inflation risks decreasing
7th Aug 23, 8:54am
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Roger J Kerr says the evidence is gathering that the US labour market is finally softening and with that inflation risks decreasing
Roger J Kerr says the pattern of lower inflation/stronger employment data in the US that has caused the repeating up/down NZD/USD movements may finally be coming to an end
31st Jul 23, 8:15am
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Roger J Kerr says the pattern of lower inflation/stronger employment data in the US that has caused the repeating up/down NZD/USD movements may finally be coming to an end
Roger J Kerr says repatriation of NZ bank profits to Aussie parents is the likely cause of the latest NZ dollar selling
24th Jul 23, 8:28am
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Roger J Kerr says repatriation of NZ bank profits to Aussie parents is the likely cause of the latest NZ dollar selling
Roger J Kerr says his expectation that US inflation would decrease quickly has transpired into reality, with the inevitable USD sell-off allowing the NZD/USD exchange rate to make the gains he has been expecting and forecasting
17th Jul 23, 9:00am
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Roger J Kerr says his expectation that US inflation would decrease quickly has transpired into reality, with the inevitable USD sell-off allowing the NZD/USD exchange rate to make the gains he has been expecting and forecasting
Roger J Kerr says the belated softening in US employment may be the catalyst that propels the NZD/USD exchange rate out of the top-end of its range at 0.6350
10th Jul 23, 9:24am
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Roger J Kerr says the belated softening in US employment may be the catalyst that propels the NZD/USD exchange rate out of the top-end of its range at 0.6350
Roger J Kerr continues to hold the view that the dominant US influence over the NZD/USD exchange rate will push the Kiwi dollar into to the high-US60c region over coming months
3rd Jul 23, 8:49am
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Roger J Kerr continues to hold the view that the dominant US influence over the NZD/USD exchange rate will push the Kiwi dollar into to the high-US60c region over coming months
Roger J Kerr says given the current evenness in the political opinion polls it is unlikely currency market participants will be placing bets either way on the Kiwi dollar over the next few months in the lead-up to the election
26th Jun 23, 9:14am
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Roger J Kerr says given the current evenness in the political opinion polls it is unlikely currency market participants will be placing bets either way on the Kiwi dollar over the next few months in the lead-up to the election
Roger J Kerr says price action in global currency markets since the US Federal Reserve’s 'hawkish pause' on interest rates has been telling and instructive as to future direction
19th Jun 23, 8:40am
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Roger J Kerr says price action in global currency markets since the US Federal Reserve’s 'hawkish pause' on interest rates has been telling and instructive as to future direction
Roger J Kerr says the NZ dollar's performance has been marginally better than many have expected, based on the impending economic recession in New Zealand, coupled with an external Current Account deficit blow-out
12th Jun 23, 8:38am
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Roger J Kerr says the NZ dollar's performance has been marginally better than many have expected, based on the impending economic recession in New Zealand, coupled with an external Current Account deficit blow-out
Roger J Kerr says US interest rates are set to reverse and turn lower again while Aussie interest rates will keep pushing higher. H e says the NZD/USD will closely track the AUD moves
5th Jun 23, 9:10am
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Roger J Kerr says US interest rates are set to reverse and turn lower again while Aussie interest rates will keep pushing higher. H e says the NZD/USD will closely track the AUD moves
After another surprise from Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr, Roger J Kerr asks: Where to from here?
29th May 23, 8:12am
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After another surprise from Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr, Roger J Kerr asks: Where to from here?
Roger J Kerr says the recent rises in the US interest rates and US currency are unlikely to be sustained
22nd May 23, 8:58am
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Roger J Kerr says the recent rises in the US interest rates and US currency are unlikely to be sustained
Roger J Kerr says the Kiwi dollar's latest set-back appears very temporary
Roger J Kerr says the only way we will attract in any foreign investment in to fund the current account deficit is to hold our interest rates substantially higher than US, European and Asian interest rates
8th May 23, 8:36am
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Roger J Kerr says the only way we will attract in any foreign investment in to fund the current account deficit is to hold our interest rates substantially higher than US, European and Asian interest rates
Roger J Kerr says the short-term actions of central banks, coupled with long-term 'de-dollarisation' are pointing towards continued depreciation of the US dollar
1st May 23, 8:01am
Roger J Kerr says the short-term actions of central banks, coupled with long-term 'de-dollarisation' are pointing towards continued depreciation of the US dollar
Roger J Kerr has some timely and pertinent questions (and answers) on the economic and foreign exchange outlook
24th Apr 23, 8:31am
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Roger J Kerr has some timely and pertinent questions (and answers) on the economic and foreign exchange outlook