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Strong arrivals of non-NZ citizens, relaxation of border restrictions & changes to immigration settings drive record net migration gain

Economy / news
Strong arrivals of non-NZ citizens, relaxation of border restrictions & changes to immigration settings drive record net migration gain
migrationrf2
Source: 123rf.com

Provisional estimates show New Zealand experienced a record net migration gain of 96,200 in the July year, Statistics NZ says. 

The gain stems from net gains of non-NZ citizens, follows progressive relaxation of Covid-19-related border restrictions from early 2022, and changes to immigration settings, says Statistics NZ. The gain reverses a net migration loss of 14,500 in the July 2022 year.

The previous net migration peak of 91,700 in the March 2020 year was partly due to travellers arriving in late 2019 and early 2020 prolonging their NZ stay as Covid-19 border and travel restrictions took effect, Statistics NZ says.

“The record net migration gain in the July 2023 year follows 12 months of a fully open New Zealand border and equates to a net gain of about 19 people per 1,000 population,” Statistics NZ population indicators manager Tehseen Islam says.

Islam says the July-year gain comprised a net gain of 135,600 non-NZ citizens and a net migration loss of 39,400 NZ citizens.

“The net gain of non-New Zealand citizens continues to set new records, while the net loss of New Zealand citizens is approaching the record loss of 44,400 in the February 2012 year,” Islam says.

Statistics NZ says people from India, the Philippines, China, South Africa, and Fiji drove net migration gains. It says the July 2023 year saw provisional annual records for:

  • total migrant arrivals of 208,400 – before the 2023 record levels, the previous record was 184,900 in the March 2020 year
  • migrant arrivals of non-New Zealand citizens, with 182,500
  • total net migration gain of 96,200
  • net migration gain of non-New Zealand citizens, of 135,600 – before the 2023 record levels, the previous record was 80,400 in the March 2020 year.

Statistics NZ describes migrants as people changing their country of residence, regardless of their country of citizenship or visa status. It uses a 12-month threshold to distinguish migrants from non-migrants.

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98 Comments

Unnamed INZ case officers who have fronted the media say we don't even know the full scale of the immigration sham that this government has allowed and the number of migrant workers here (some with their families) on falsified applications or fake jobs could be in the tens of thousands just in the last 12 months.

This government would rather keep it under the wraps than try to ascertain the numbers, and so will the next one who actually wants more exploitable workers and are certainly going to continue the rort.

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39

It's absolutely disgraceful. False hope, led to living in dire circumstances and now housed by govt. Where do they go? What is this an investment in?

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People forget that these people are coming from very low wage countries, they could work under the counter at a Vape shop (sleep there to I suspect) and be able to send a fortune home.  Transfers are still a big part of the immigration story.

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Nobody really speaks about the international transfers.  That's millions or billions of dollars being sucked out of the NZ economy and sent overseas. 

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Well you start off with the Australian banks at $5b per year.  I heard rough estimates once a few years back that if you tallied up all the profit shifting multi-nationals you'd get to a figure in the vicinity of $20b p.a.  

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Not poverty but welfare state. There are Americans who are desperately poor but they aren't rorting our immigration system.  My own immigrant family has several members who have returned to country of origin until they fell ill or their children needed education. Moving to another country is a big step; most people are happiest living where they grew up so emigrating needs a big incentive.

How many retired Kiwis would move to various Pacific Islands or the Philippines or Vietnam if they continued to receive Super and retained free health care?  3rd world low rents would be a big attraction.

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People forget that these people are coming from very low wage countries, they could work under the counter at a Vape shop (sleep there to I suspect) and be able to send a fortune home.  Transfers are still a big part of the immigration story.

So much for the kindness baloney that the likes of Princess Xindy would promulgate. TBH, most people don't give a rats about migrant welfare, incl Xindy. She only cared if something made her look bad. 

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What is it that drives the Indian community to do over their own countrymen? You don't see other communities appearing in the news anywhere near the same degree. Corruption must be endemic.

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India is a continent - talk to a Gujarati about Punjabis and it is much the same as listening to the French discussing Romanians. Judging people by ethnic group is a waste of time because the categories have too many exceptions. Not every Welshman is a good singer and not every Kiwi follows rugby. However the Japanese seem to stand apart - unlike our Christchurch earthquake their Kobi earthquake reputedly had no looters.

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"India is a continent"

No Singautim, India is a country.

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Well it's often referred to as sub continent. 

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I think there's a little artistic license there. It is a country, but a hugely diverse one and with more genetic diversity than some continents (Europe, for example).   

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What is it that drives the Indian community to do over their own countrymen? 

There is plenty of exploitation within the Indian community of other Indians. In Australia, there seems to be issues with Chinese exploiting other Chinese.  

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I'm not Indian, but have had extraordinarily 'bad luck' in a very large percentage of my dealings with Indians - think dishonesty, fraud and elaborate lie upon elaborate lie.  I've also been conned by Indians from India as well as Fiji, so not confined to the Indian 'continent'.  And this extended across generations (think adults, parents and kids). Your comment about Indians doing over 'their own countrymen' comes as a surprise to me as the problematic Indians I've dealt with clearly did not 'discriminate' like that?

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Andrew little is the minister of immigration. He has a track record of failed ministerial portfolios.

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Lucky his surname isn't Mahuta eh, I mean he can be hopeless (a significant body of evidence here) but as long as he's a pakeha it's all good eh fulla's. Pumping up immigration for the "Pakeha Elite" eh

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Phew, that's a Tane Mahuta sized chip you are shouldering there!

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I've been complaining about ministers of Immigration for a decade - they have been terrible - if you take Jacinda's criteria for govt: 'Kindness' then they all fail. The recent raids on houses over-crowded with hungry immigrants have occurred in the last two months since Andrew Little has been in charge. He is the first minister to actually admit the shady side of NZ's immigration policies.  At least his trade union background helps him realise what effect desperate, naive third world immigrants have on the low-paid section of our Kiwi born population.

Summary: he may be rubbish but he is the best we have had since I arrived in 2002.

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But but this govt is honest and transparent and let's be kind. The people/ businesses caught doing this illegal selling visas if not born here should have their NZ visa canceled and deported themselves. MBIE who told INZ to just press accept and do no background checks etc should lose their jobs and be held accountable  for this f...kup Sadly thou Nat/ Act will just flood the market with cheap labour as well don't want those wages going up.

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I agree.  It should be obvious to everyone that the people who are exploiting the system and engaging in human trafficking are from the same country - that's how they get away with it, all dodgy transactions are done offshore.  Its not The Warehouse importing hundreds of Nepalese immigrants.  Find them, cancel their visa, and deport the business owners.  That's the only way this will stop.  Even under the old stricter conditions immigrants were importing workers for convenience stores, liquor stores, restaurants, etc while pretending to pay them full wages when the reality was the employee was refunding half their wages back to the employer in cash in return for visa sponsorship. Same story, just a different scam. 

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If you think only foreigners would cheat the system then you are dreaming.  They may have more contacts overseas and therefore be in the forefront but it is a temptation for any small business - especially those competing with the cheaters.

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100 workers likely caught in scam that saw immigrants crammed into ... https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/immigration/300950617/100-workers-likely…

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Started well over 6 month ago only gets reported now.

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Stonking. House price line go up again.

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Saw an article on Stuff this morning quoting property gurus who are celebrating the fact that more capital is being borrowed and pumped into unproductive assets for untaxed gains.

Ironically, the article right next to it laments the state of our healthcare under creaking infrastructure and worsening worker shortages. Let's ignore the obvious link between our obsession with unproductive assets and our faltering economy unable to pay for critical services.

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NZ Customs air passenger arrival and departure statistics Jan 2023 - Aug 2023

Total Arrivals 3593454 Total Departures 3595613

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What about the difference over 12 months?

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For the entire year 2022. 2851614 arrivals and 2750402 departures.

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so that leaves 5K not counted in the current fiqures

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Don't worry guys, customs data shows our population decreasing there should be no pressure soon on our infrastructure/housing...

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I don’t think either political party is better than the other on this. National went years repetitive g GDP growth that was actually negative on a per capita basis.

I’m not really sure how having a massive influx of families is productive. It’s not cheap labour or well skilled. Chances are they will be a net negative on the system.

 

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Great point. It is not cheap labour or gross wages wouldn't have gone up in double-digits across several higher skill domains (healthcare, tech, engineering, consulting, etc.) in the year ended June 2023.

What I am seeing in my sector is we're not bringing in the skills we genuinely need and those lesser skilled coming in large numbers are adding yet more demand pressure (directly and indirectly) for those skills.

Domestic inflation is going nowhere for the time being!

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Advisor you seem to understand what's happening here, I don't know why our control of immigration has failed, I can't see why, what's your view?

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Speaking from my own experience in my sector, there is a gross misjudgement among political leaders that NZ is still an attractive place for high-skilled workers. In fact, ticket-clipping sectors and their lobbies have fooled those gullible idiots in Parliament and INZ into believing that NZ's visa process is the only thing standing in the way of NZ becoming a hub for global talent.

The government literally put businesses in charge of bringing anyone they wanted via a high-trust model that has led to these cluster-f.
Look at National and ACT: they are promising easier visa rules and faster processing times as a means to solve skill shortages; both also completely ignoring the fact that NZ is not appealing to global talent and a better ticketing system won't help fill seats for a show very few want to see.

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OK thanks, I have joked in the past that ACT could not do worse than this but yeah, letting the foxes guard the hen house is turning out pretty much as expected...  I really don't see any party that could fix this, NZ First perhaps??  (shudder)

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Everyone has gone to Australia and Canada.  Currently over 2.55 million temporary immigrants in Australia right now.  NZ might once have been an attractive place to emigrate to, but now it is a racially divisive country that openly discriminates against Asians and Europeans in healthcare and education.  We arent getting any highly skilled workers because wages are too low, there is the threat of a wealth tax on worldwide assets, and we don't let them buy houses to live in.  Then there is the cost of living and the rising crime rate.  Does the Govt think that all those Chinese and Indian dairy owners don't talk to anyone back home? 

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"We arent getting any highly skilled workers because wages are too low, there is the threat of a wealth tax on worldwide assets, and we don't let them buy houses to live in."

Incorrect. We aren't getting highly skilled workers because the cost of living here is too high (mainly housing) compared to wages. When they do come their wages are taxed to pay old rich people's super while at the same time critical public services are overwhelmed by the rich old freeloaders. 

 

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When they do come their wages are taxed to pay old rich people's super while at the same time critical public services are overwhelmed by the rich old freeloaders. 

That is not unique to NZ.  Focus on what NZ is doing differently to Canada and Australia who have no problems attracting workers - therein lies the problem. 

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Canada and Australia also have a cost of living crisis, homelessness, crime, and expensive homes. Australia has higher wages as it is a bigger more wealthy country than New Zealand ( mostly due to mining).

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Apart from Sydney, housing is significantly more affordable in the bigger Aus cities than Auckland.

Aus also has much more alluring superannuation contributions.

Day to day goods and services are also generally more affordable too.

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Good thing Auckland in no way represents the whole of NZ however many there like to think so.

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Have huge amounts of natural resources, making your country wealthy?

Canada has the 3rd largest oil reserves in the world, and Australia has loads of minerals buried in a desert.

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I can promise you the main reason why workers a flocking to Australia and Canada is because they offer much better wages than you can get here. Canada to a lesser extent but being next to the USA presents far more economic opportunities.

Whats going on with 3 waters and what not probably isn’t even on the radar for most potential migrants.

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Correct.

The last point in time when we attracted skilled migrants like bees to honey was in the early 2000s, when house prices were much lower and our currency much weaker. You know, the days when one pound sterling equalled three kiwi pesos 

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Not just gross misjudgement by political leaders. My experiences at the water cooler suggests that ‘kiwi exceptionalism’ is still commonplace, many kiwis seem to think this country is heaven on earth, why wouldn’t all those highly skilled doctors, engineers etc come here?

ummmm probably because our cost of living is so high relative to salaries, and our lifestyle isn’t quite as awesome as we think? 
 

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These migrants are highly educated and hence most likely to weigh all options, do the math and when they do, they easily see that their work gets then a lot less here than elsewhere. The main driving factor for them would be if the loss of value in their time is compensated enough by the climate, geography and possibly family life that NZ would offer. I doubt many come here to make a fortune, most doctors etc I've met who emigrated here came for the above reasons.

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Plus all the CO2 that is now created here in NZ with that extra influx. If the greens were,really concerned about the environment they would call a ban on total in take of all immigrants and refugees. Imagine how that would go down

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No need to imagine; I checked this pre-Covid and % population growth of immigrants was more than the missed target CO2 reduction.  For some puzzling reason NZ signed up based on total green house emissions whereas other countries had a per capita target.  

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And people are worried about ACT's immigration policy!

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Yep because they have somehow managed to propose something even worse than this.

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Are we about to reach a historic net-loss of NZ citizens? Graph looks ominous for the blue curve just as it looks insane for the yellow curve. 

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The interesting thing would be to see how many kiwis leaving are actually kiwis or new kiwis who can then get into Aus. With all the new gadgetry that INZ has they should be able to tell us that. I have a feeling it would be a high percentage 

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They don't need to be "new Kiwis" to get into Australia.  Australia is pumping immigration harder than ever, with over 2.55 million temporary immigrants including 655,000 international students.  All anyone currently in NZ needs to get an Aussie visa is a skill or some work experience.  So its not just Kiwi's leaving but many of the recent immigrants who have decided that they too will be better off in Australia.

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Purely anecdotal but based on my workplace (professional services and engineering) it is young kiwis who cannot stomach the housing affordability situation here any longer. 

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In my healthcare specialty, it is Kiwis we have spent years training moving to Aus for nearly double the money, and cheaper cost of living. We are becoming an excellent offshore training facility. 

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This.  The ramifications of this will cause a negative circle of impact.  I am lucky, when the time comes and my NZ-born children are ready I will move our family off-shore so they can actually have health care if they need it, live relatively more safely, and build a future that includes housing security.

It so very sad, today's "leadership" will be spoken about as meme's for all that is bad.

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Are we about to reach a historic net-loss of NZ citizens? Graph looks ominous for the blue curve just as it looks insane for the yellow curve"

Have another look at the graph mfd, there has been a net loss of NZ citizens every year since 1979 except over the lockdowns.  The blue line is below "0".

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I mean historic in magnitude, not direction. We're already close to previous peak net emigration, and diving fast. 

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Oh, OK, it wasn't very clear, but I get it now.

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Don’t worry National is going to really crank up these numbers and send them to the moon. 

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Labour is doing an outstanding job. Not sure how you could top this unless you have no migration settings

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Don't look now but it appears we already have no immigration settings lol :)

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I think National are still yet to close that wage gap between Australia and New Zealand they promised back in 2008.  

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This is insanity. 

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21

Yes indeed.

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race you to the bottom

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And yet NZers will go to the polls and vote for more of the same, a lot more of the same. 

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An indictment of the education level of the average punter.

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Is there any political party with a policy to control migration?

Even NZ First seems to have dropped it from the agenda. 

 

6-12 months ago, the narrative in the media was all about needing to open the borders, due to inability to find qualified staff, I wonder if the narrative will now go the other way, or is that 'racist'?

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It merely needs a population plan.  Without planning population how can Labour decide how many new dentists their policy will need and how will National decide which roads need major improvements if they have no plan for the number of people living here.  Such a plan could be 25% growth in the next two decades or stay at 5 million or my preference a gentle progressive drop.

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5 million? Stats population clock had almost 5.25 million now. NZ population growing faster than most undeveloped countries and we have shrinking GDP per capita. I didn't think things could get worse than under John Key government but I was wrong...

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It will be racist up until recession hits and people lose their jobs.  Then the penny drops.

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Holy cow. Here we go again.

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Yeah, they never learn, do they? The productivity will keep going down, the deficit will increase further. Sooner or later, these newly arrived migrants will realise that New Zealand is not paradise as they thought it was, and they will leave too. Eventually only boomers, gang members and ram raiders will be left in the country. This sounds a bit exaggerating, but it is happening right now... 

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Too many too fast and very little of the skills we need..

Pressure on rents, hospitals, infrastructure and the enviroment. 

Madness..

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doing a quick conservative calculation, say 1/2 settle in auckland then 1/2 again buy a vehicle, that is 20K new vehicles on auckland roads in one year and people wonder why the city streets are getting worse year after year and building a lane here or an extra lane there is not going to cut it 

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Yippeee for the Real estate sector....

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Has no one else bothered to remember the enormous amnesty that Labour passed under Jacinda last year? They gave permanent residency to everyone who was on a temporary visa in the country during covid. Guess what comes from that? 200k Amnesties turn into 600k new visas via Chain migration.

Don't expect to visit a doctor, enroll in a primary school, afford a house or to be paid your worth until the gates close and half these people are deported.

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yep so true we will never learn. Look at the UK the NHS can't cope now you ph a doctor make a time and the doctor ph you back they don't want you coming into see them. The whole infrastructure from health to schools to roading over there is failing.

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It's not failing because of immigration. It's failing because the Tories have cut funding to pay for their rich prick mates to keep even more of their obscene amount of wealth to themselves. Immigration was just used to keep wages down. 

This is the current Tory way which appears to be what NACT want to emulate. I can't for the life of me understand why centre right people stand for it. It is the State being used to literally enrich the few at the expense of the public good. It is as far from centre-right politics as one can be. 

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Who knew NZ citizenship was given away so cheaply.  Disgusting.

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I remember reading in the comments section  not long ago people saying "No one would want to move to NZ"... house prices being one of the reasons. 

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Yeah well you probably missed part of that, no skilled workers would want to move to NZ. Nobody ever doubted people from much weaker economies would jump at the chance to move here. 

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Righto, didn't realize there was fine print to those statements. So you're saying, no skilled workers are coming here? Can you show me the data to back that up...?

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When people refer to nobody will want to move here the subtext to that would be people who economically bring more value than they take. What reason would a doctor/nurse etc have to move here rather than Australia? There will always be people who want to move here as the economic opportunities in NZ are far greater than what people have in many other countries, but if they’re working jobs that don’t actually contribute that much and end up being a drag on our already struggling infrastructure that isn’t good for anybody.

As for data, there is the below graph directly from immigration NZ.

https://mbienz.shinyapps.io/migration_data_explorer/#

Obviously covid had an effect on those numbers but we can see in the results that the amount of essential visas has basically dropped like a rock. There has also been news articles about how the government have basically been unable to recruit any new nurses or doctors despite supposed fast tracking processes in place.

This data also isn't the most recent so the latest stuff might not be in it but the trend looks pretty clear.

 

 

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Another moral issue is whether NZ is stripping skilled workers from poorer countries. My family is mainly PI from a poor island nation that struggles to produce doctors, nurses, pilots and engineers - but I know of people in each of those categories who are working in NZ. Good for them but not kind to the poor taxpayers in their country of origin who financed their education.

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Another moral issue is whether NZ is stripping skilled workers from poorer countries.

This is something that I've often thought about too.  Is it ethical to try and attract people from other countries when doing so leaves them worse off.  Even when Aussie was trying to get nurses or some profession from NZ that slips my mind recently our politicians weren't keen on it in the press.  Yet they are happy to try and do the same themselves - massive double standard in my view.

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Obviously covid had an effect on those numbers but we can see in the results that the amount of essential visas has basically dropped like a rock. 

The graph showing numbers of essential visas is absolutely shocking!!

 

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Did you see the links I've recently posted where they are paying 20k or more just to get here for a job that didn't eventuate?

Did you also read my comments saying they would come because they want residence which is worth hundreds of thousands of dollars?

The obvious fine print is that I'm speaking about those coming from countries without free health, education and welfare anything close to what we offer here.

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Just blame Act... oh wait a minute...

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ACT’s policy takes this disasterclass from labour and turbocharges it. 

Criticism of ACT isn’t an endorsement of labour, plenty of room for them to both be shit. 

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You all wanted workers now you have them start employing.

I am involved with 5 from the Philippines and 5 From Fiji what wonderful people and they are very keen to work hard.

Makes a real change from some Kiwis.

Kiwis will wake up in the next 5 years and find they have no jobs because they didn't, want to work or they want to work from home.

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How are you offering kiwi's the equivalence of residence worth hundreds of thousands of dollars?  Not to mention the wages would be several times more than at country of birth.

Didn't think so, so you're comparing apples to oranges. 

As usual employers are happy to have the taxpayers subsidise their new staff with free health, education and welfare for life after residence is obtains instead of paying it themselves.

what wonderful people

Completely agree, but that isn't the point here.

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Where the heck are all these people going to stay .. and at what cost to renting kiwis.   So messed up we have to import “talent” … this so what happens in an economy that relies on house prices to prop it up .. 

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at what cost to renting kiwis

Already have higher rents in Auckland, they were dropping before immigration restarted. 

So messed up we have to import “talent”

We aren't doing that though, we're importing people that can borrow and beg to get 20k together to have a shot at a new life in a western country (often sold false promises by those taking the 20k).  Great for them, awful for anyone already here.

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Wow the demand for baristas, chefs and labourers must be a big hole to fill, but I'm sure the 96,000 people that have settled in NZ this year won't create extra demand for services, housing, and goods, causing inflation to stay high ! *sarc*

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baristas, chefs and labourers must be a big hole to fill

It will never be filled because after they get residence there is no need to work 60 hours a week (have read reports of much more too) for 40 hours pay etc.  After residence you get all the benefits so it's under the table pay and full WFF and accommodation supplement for those at the bottom.

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ABSURD

Neither major party has a population strategy and simply milks a high immigration rate to drive up gdp. Both parties are as bad as one another.

We have a massive housing shortage.

We have absolute carbon targets not per capita.

We have a massive infrastructure deficit already.

We have significant environmental decline while we increase production to support a fast expanding population.

We need a population strategy based on maximising wellbeing per capita (economic + social + environmental).

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