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Opinion: Kiwi$ slides again to 76 Australian cents

Posted in News

By Mike Jones

The NZD was the weakest performing currency overnight, for the second day running.

Not even a valiant effort from NZ's cricketers could prevent NZD/AUD from continuing on its path southwards last night. Yesterday's Australian GDP data showed growth picked up to 2.7%y/y in the fourth quarter, underscoring the RBA's view the Australian economy is running "close to trend". The contrast to NZ is obvious, with Q4 annual GDP growth here expected to print closer to flat. As a consequence, NZD/AUD slipped a further 1% to nearly 0.7640 last night. Heavy selling was noted from both macro and momentum players.

Despite what was a generally upbeat night for "˜risk-sensitive' currencies, the weaker NZD/AUD was again the NZD/USD's ball and chain. Global sentiment was buoyed by Greece's announcement of a fresh set of austerity measures designed to stave off a sovereign default. With the deficit slashing plans getting the big tick from the EU and the IMF, risk appetite improved and global equity markets posted solid gains. Our index of risk appetite (which has a scale of 0-100%) rose to 66%, not far off the year to date high of 70% reached in January.

Against this backdrop, "˜safe-haven' currencies were shunned; the USD index fell nearly 0.7%. Still, NZD/USD was confined to a broadly sideways 0.6900-0.6980 range. In contrast, the GBP was the star performer of the night. The upbeat UK services PMI (which rose to 58.4 in February vs. 55.0 expected) prompted a sharp paring of GBP "˜short' positions. As a result, NZD/GBP slipped below 0.4600 from close to 0.4650, adding another weight on the NZD.

We suspect it will take a strong reading from Monday's NZ manufacturing survey and/or Wednesday's terms of trade data to see a short-term stabilisation in NZD/AUD. Whether or not we see any dovish undertones from next week's RBNZ Statement will also be important. Near-term support on NZD/USD is eyed towards 0.6890 with resistance at 0.7070.

The USD weakened against nearly all the major currencies overnight as easing fears over Greece and upbeat global data allayed concerns about the global outlook.

Market sentiment was cheered by Greece's announcement of a fresh set of austerity measures to slash its budget deficit. A further €4.8 billion in pay cuts and tax increases was pledged, spurring optimism Greece's target deficit cut of 4% of GDP is still achievable. Indicative of such, Greek 5-year CDS spreads (a measure of Greece's implied default probability) fell to around 320bps "“ the lowest since mid-January.

Greece's new cutback plans also got the thumbs up from all of the IMF, the Eurogroup, and the European Commission , underscoring a broad improvement in risk appetite. The VIX index (an indicator of US stock volatility used as a proxy for risk aversion) fell to 18.5%, from above 19% the day before and nearly 29% at the beginning of February.

Global stock markets were buoyed not only by easing fears over Greece, but also some relatively upbeat global data. Most notably, the UK PMI services index jumped to to 58.4 in February, from 54.5 in January "“ well above the 55.0 expected. Eurozone retail sales and services PMI were more or less in line with expectations, but the February US ISM non-manufacturing index exceeded expectations by a clear margin (53.0 vs. 51.0 expected). European stock indices rose 0.5-1%, while the S&P500 is currently up around 0.4%.

Improved confidence about the health of the global recovery saw investors trim positions in "˜safe-haven' currencies like the USD last night. Both GBP and EUR experienced a vicious paring of short positions, given the extent of "˜bad news' that has been priced into these currencies lately. EUR/USD surged above 1.3700 from 1.3640, shrugging off more comments from Germany that no support will be forthcoming for Greece. Meanwhile, GBP/USD bounded above 1.5100 as the strong PMI data and a surprising gain in consumer confidence allayed fears over a double-dip recession for the UK.

Looking ahead, with the Greece doomsday scenario being priced out of EUR and confidence about the global recovery improving, we suspect EUR/USD will find support on any dips towards 1.3600. However, near-term event risk is expected from the second estimate of Q4 Eurozone GDP released tonight (0.1%q/q expected). Tonight also brings policy announcements from the Bank of England and the ECB. Both are expected to keep their key policy rates unchanged (at 0.5% and 1% expected).

* Mike Jones is a BNZ Currency Strategist. All of the research produced by the BNZ Capital team of economists is available here

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

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27 Comments

Man, what a gloomy way

Man, what a gloomy way of reporting.
The NZD is down - great, we can actually export more product and get money flow into the country instead of out. This is a good thing - really!
Stop all this "ball and chain" nonsense and just use the facts. Low NZD is good for this country, unless all people want is a cheap TV.

Novo, I completely agree with

Novo, I completely agree with you. We desperately need a low dollar.

I think what would be

I think what would be most needed is a currency value based on the country's real trade in productive goods, not speculation. Whatever that value is, high or low, that is what should set a fair value of exchange for other goods and services. Anything else is not reflecting the real capacity of the country to exchange its own goods & services for those we need or want from overseas trading partners.

But i am sure any 'expert economist' will swiftly try to kill that kind of argument, as it would mean speculative fluctuations should be tried to be avoided through some sort of regulation. And we can't have this! Hail to the open 'free market'.... Did I just say FREE??

Ok in the short term

Ok in the short term Novo but if the argument held any water, we would be better off with the Kiwi at 10 cent au. The herion rush is soon gone Novo. Gotta pay for imports and to service the Elephant. It's falling because the economy is falling. It's that simple. Thirty years of incompetent govt is coming home to a street near you.

Even less chance of our

Even less chance of our real wages catching up with Aussie as our dollar slides into The Ditch. 2025, was it, Don? Oh. He's busy with his new job.

Novo/Alistair, a low NZD will

Novo/Alistair, a low NZD will mean that all imports rise, this includes oil and so petrol/diesel may also go up. Personal and commercial transport costs will rise.

Think about all the things that are imported, incl medicines, equipment and machinery, agricultural products, and even TV programs to watch on those TV's you mentioned., Food prices will rise, as will international travel etc. Everything coming into NZ inc comes by container ship, of which the costs will also rise with a falling NZD. Pretty much everything you can think of will be somehow affected.

On a sustained basis this will be passed on and flow through the economy leading to price inflation.

Now do you still think a low NZD is a good thing>?

Yes but wait we will

Yes but wait we will have to pay more for imported goods - namely petrol and other important consumables.. don't jump for joy just yet - very coin has two sides.

Chinese ones have holes in

Chinese ones have holes in em too. An escape route in times of trouble!

With you there guys, this

With you there guys, this low dollar is bad...bad i say!

For tradeables, it's a relief.

For tradeables, it's a relief. However, there is downside. That is, NZ Inc, and 'the management' (govt.) will continue to believe it can make it's way with a relatively simple and low value add export mix, rather than implement policy to allow the development (emergence - must watch one's complex adaptive system vocab. at this point) of a more complex, less risk prone export mix, that includes more high value add offerings.

So, good for margin, bad for pressure to change policy. I guess good for the status quo, then.

Under the current monetary and

Under the current monetary and fiscal system in NZ there isn't really any other way than to run an export led economy. Therefor a low dollar of say 55c is the best way. Why do you guys think China kept their currency pegged to the US dollar...? Also the reality is that Socialism (inefficiency) is here to stay in NZ so forget about competitive & efficient free markets, we have to do what we can with the voting block we've got hence why we have a conservative govt afraid to do anything to rock the boat... it's more of the same people.

Export led economy, Alastair? That's

Export led economy, Alastair? That's the problem. We've only just turned around the balance of trade ( first time since 1978 odd), and that only because we've cut down on imports, not increased exports.
That's what Les is always banging on about.

A lower NZD is really

A lower NZD is really only good if the money from trade receipts are recycled back into the economy in such a way that wages ultimately rise to compensate for rising costs associated by the lower dollar. Since most of the trade receipts are actually used to repay debt, I would argue that a lower NZD does not have the impact many expect.

And what would you do

And what would you do with your spare trade recepits, Matt S? If I had any I'd be parking them unconverted for a while in an offshore bank. At the very least I'd have to concider holding them in Aussie at higher yield until I needed them.
We're getting ourselves into a pickle.

As is said, under the

As is said, under the current (broken) system a low dollar is the only way.

Complete monetary reform is actually what's required but we can forget that ever happening so move on.

Matt S - the lower

Matt S - the lower exchange rate means we earn more as a country. If that income is used to repay debt, NZ is better off.

NZ produces and sells protein sources (dairy is 30% of GDP), that is the bottom line.

If you want higher wages, get more education, work better etc.

Well the generally held assumption

Well the generally held assumption is that a lower NZD will make NZ inc "earn more", and its true that our receipts will nominally be in fact more. But like any business, its net profit at the end of the day that actually matters. A lower NZD will bring both more income but equally more expenses, so I would argue that out net profitability hasn't changed. But when you then look at households the situation becomes worse because wage growth would be lagging price inflation.

Funny thing is (please correct

Funny thing is (please correct me if i'm wrong), the Aussie and NZ dollar are pretty 'stable' compared to the other currencies. Just not towards each other!

I understand about the advantages

I understand about the advantages of a lower $. Im very happy about it as my investments are almost entirely in Aust. Can someone tell me what it does to our overseas debt?

Andrew, I believe external debt

Andrew, I believe external debt (public and private) in in NZD.

Matt, it's possible that the

Matt, it's possible that the increased income won't come straight down to staff, but sustained improved income will - note sustained and not a volatile NZD.
Put is the other way - a high dollar = less exports and less places for people to have a job to buy the newly cheap TV, etc. Whish would you prefer?

Early in the day to

Early in the day to hit the bottle novo!

A lower dollar means more

A lower dollar means more of those stunningly beautiful young German tourists I saw in Dunedin , Queenstown and Hokitika !!!.................. Dive you fecking dollar ...........plummet and belly flop !!!

Thanks Wally, my fingers must

Thanks Wally, my fingers must have had a few drinks as I have been typing like that all day.

Novo.. my point was that

Novo.. my point was that a lower dollar is not all it seems.. it comes with a flip-side, a trade-off if you will. Without going into the feedback loops, consider this ..

-- A lower NZD, combined with low interest rates = increased farm incomes. I can tell you the first thing that will happen will be another boom in farm property prices .. a little slack in the economy and us kiwi's are busy leveraging ourselves up to the eyeballs in debt again ..

A lower NZD = a better economy for us all is nothing more than wishful thinking... but just my 2c.

oh .. forgot to mention

oh .. forgot to mention .. Petrol at my local has gone up to $1.779 for 91 .. cost me an extra $3.50 to fill up.

MattS - doesn't necessarily mean

MattS - doesn't necessarily mean a boom in farm prices. With three of the major lenders who between them hold 60% of rural debt, shutting their loan books, banks are not going to be lending to farmers anymore based on 'capital gain' potential. Strong cashflows are the only thing banks are interested in now. Any dairy farmer worth their salt will be expecting volatility in dairy prices so will be prudent with their cash and making sure they have saved for when the payout falls again. A banker down south told me the only ones buying farms at the mo are sheep and beef farmers, as the dairy farmers are no longer in the game. And even then only the ones with economy of scale.
If we see a fall in commodity prices, which I believe we will,farmers will not be any better off. Frankly as a farmer, I prefer to see a dollar at around $0.60-0.65centsUS.