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Articles by Bnzeconomists


Oil rout intensifies

Head-scratching over rise in the NZD after downward revisions to prior GDP growth rates; perhaps investors heartened by Yellen

Yellen clarity stirs markets

Clear signals from the US Fed that policy rates will rise mid 2015 sees wholesale markets bid up benchmark rates. NZ swaps follow

Risk appetite perks up

USD investors pre-positioning for upbeat tone from Fed; market ignored NZ current account deficit growing; decent bounce in oil price improves market sentiment

Heightened risk aversion

Tightening and flattening of rate curves continues with long end falls continuing

Wild night for others' currencies

Despite media pounce on lack of NZ surplus, financial markets hardly blinked; NZ looks good to nervous global investors

NZ yields flat

Tight NZGB issuance confirmed, UST yields declined as Russian risks play out; eyes now on Fed signals

Poor risk sentiment extends

Economic confidence taking a battering everywhere, except the US (and NZ), HYEFU may be ignored by currency markets

Lower Govt issuance expected

NZGB to attract more scarcity premium although key risk remains currency exposure; swaps lower and flatter again

Risk appetite falls sharply

NZD drifts lower following other commodity currencies, but will find direction this week from Q3 GDP result and US Fed decisions

More flattening pressure

NZ swap yields lower as US and German benchmark bond yields fall further. Short end in NZ stable, pressure lower at long end

3 reasons why the NZD will fall

Markets liked Wheeler's MPS but Wheeler didn't like the market bidding the NZD up, he sees it falling from here

RBNZ delivers subtle tightening bias

Markets now expecting NZ OCR hikes to 4.25% by 2017 after restart in rises in late 2015; ECB TLTRO offer spurned as expected

Dairy a drag on a 'robust economy'

NZD risks are to the downside; USD falls as does risk appetite; AU consumer sentiment low

Downshift on offshore yields

NZ swaps pushed lower by international trends; Greek yields surge higher, with contagion to Italy. Eyes on AU unemployment report

NZD stronger despite risk aversion

Eyes on Fonterra; European and China moves all undermine risk, Yen strongest gainer on the day

NZ swaps lower

Negative risk sentiment pushes benchmark bond rates lower. Aussie weakness may weigh on NZ

NZD on back foot

Currency markets factoring in possible Fonterra payout scenarios; surprises will move the currency. ECB voter talks of eurozone's 'massive weakness'

NZ swaps rise tentatively

NZ wholesale rates struggle to find direction ahead of Fonterra payout announcement; Aussies still eyeing rate cuts in 2015

NZ yields to open higher

Rising US yields, along with higher German and Australian yields, will see longer dated NZ equivalents higher today

NZD headed lower before Christmas

Kiwi entering a sustained downtrend in 2015 which could start soon, led by RBNZ signals and lower Fonterra payout decisions