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Articles by Bnzeconomists


USD post-FOMC rally runs out of puff

US Q3 GDP comes in healthier than anticipated; German inflation numbers soft; next leg higher in the USD may come from release of Japanese data

NZ curve steepens

BNZ pushes out its expectations of when the next RBNZ rate hike will happen, and lowers the expected peak

US Fed gives public vote of confidence in the US economy

NZD falls after FOMC statement. Attention now turns to RBNZ, and later to data on currency intervention signals

NZ swaps steady, but short US yields spike higher

Strong local receiving demand blunts NZ swap rates; eyes on RBNZ tone as no-one expects a rate hike signal

NZD/USD jolted higher

Risk aversion eases noticeably, benefiting 'risk-sensitive' currencies like the NZD; local eyes on business confidence data today, then FOMC tomorrow

Market positioning for a dovish OCR review

BNZ says it is hard to see short end swaps falling further; US yields volatile on surprise lower, then higher data; local eyes today on business confidence survey

NZD gains while USD weakens

Euro sentiment sags despite ECB's bank stress test results; minor international data draws minor market disappointments; NZD gains against most

NZ swap and bond yields edge higher

Markets ignore big trade deficit and push local rates higher with a steepening bias; curve close to cycle trough?

NZD pummeled over last 24 hours

NZDUSD down 1.4% following Q3 CPI release; OCR expectations reduce; Global PMI readings above expectations

Rates now close to cycle trough

Market sentiment rises as Eurozone manufacturing expanding again. Yields rise worldwide and NZ expected to follow

NZD/USD lower, with more risk from CPI data

Both the CAD and AUD in focus with volatile moves but no new trends, markets await NZ CPI and US PMI

Market risks misinterpreting today's CPI data

NZ swaps up, UST 10yr yields up, markets see an RBA cut by year end, eyes on NZ CPI today

Immigration boom remains intact

Immigration net annualised gain of 56,000 exceeds previous highs in 2002/03; EUR weaker as ECB commences asset purchase program; AUD surges on Chinese data

NZ yields lower today 'but will be higher next year'

International equities push higher and bond yields rise; RBNZ seen as 'flexible' in use of policy tools

Strength across the board

Recent data shows 'NZ economy is on a very sound footing' says BNZ, expects NZD to hold its value better than the AUD

BNZ pushes out forecast for OCR hike by 6 months

BNZ pushes back its expectation of RBNZ rate hikes to September 2015 on a lower CPI track. Still sees OCR higher by +75 bps in a year

USD strengthening

Yellen's inequality speech provides little guidance for markets; locally, eyes will be on Q3 CPI this week

Expecting downward pressure on NZ yields

Markets bracing for a period of increased volatility; better US data sees a sell-off in US Treasuries and yields rise

Head scratching over NZD jump

Equity market carnage; volatility the winner as VIX hits highest point since 2011; NZD rally bizarre as it is trumping JPY & CHF in a skittish market

Interest rates markets shell-shocked

US 10-year Treasury yields plunge to 1.88% before snapping back to 2.09%, and a major fall for the day