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Articles by Bnzeconomists


Tough PMIs worldwide

Sleepy trading focuses on weak factory data, but awaits policy decisions from the ECB, Chinese officials, and the RBA

Mortgage demand raises 2yr swap

NZ rates higher but little drive; German rates fall again, ECB expected to cut although markets not certain

Commodities centre stage locally

Markets get better-than-expected US data, as-expected poor EU data, and currencies also affected by Ukraine fallout

Eyes on ECB

Subdued bond markets see swap rates inch higher, but more action expected in coming week with five central bank reviews

Excuse to sell?

NZD reacted to others yesterday but may find its own direction today with some key local data releases

More lower, flatter trending

Bond markets ignore US growth, worry about Europe and Ukraine, NZGB yields down but risks for offshore investors growing

Kiwi rebounds

NZD rises on Fonterra confidence, USD weakness, widening trouble in the Ukraine. Aussie capex data release may set trend for NZD today

Lower and flatter

Only rises in US yields can prevent rate inversion if OCR hikes resume next year; 2-10 spread at lowest since 2008

Swap yields tracking NZD lower

Yields trending down on speculation of currency intervention; lower currency removes one impediment to future rate hikes

Passive intervention by RBNZ?

Sometime before any RBNZ intervention in currency confirmed; NZDAUD continues to slide south

NZD's down lurch stalls

Kiwi's fall stops after unsubstantiated intervention rumour; no support expected from today's trade data

More stimulus was on its way for Eurozone

German IFO confidence weaker, bond yields lower, Draghi confirms more stimulus announcements soon, eyes on NZ trade data

Yellen's ambiguity

Prospects of ending US stimulus and earlier rate raises overshadowed by Ukraine risks; bond yields reflect geopolitical risks

Draghi's support for QE goes unconditional

Yellen still sees US jobs slack but also sees fast improvement; Draghi preparing for outright purchases of ABS; markets expect less from RBA or RBNZ

NZD finding some friends

S&P 500 index hits record highs as US data uniformly surprises to the upside; NZD recovering after dipping on weaker consumer confidence data

Markets underrate OCR hikes

Recent data more likely to see RBNZ resume rate hikes than market pricing assumes, says BNZ. Swaps push higher

NZDUSD target is 80c by year end

Hawkish tilt to Fed minutes sees USD kick higher although concern on slack labour market lingers

Yields push on higher again

A lower currency may convince markets OCR rate hikes are back on track; US and UK central banks turn hawkish

Market using any excuse to sell NZD

Q2 PPI data in line with indications but surprised market causing a sell-off in NZD; US data better than expected overnight giving USD some broader support

Yields up in NZ and US

Rare Kauri adds receiving interest, DMO signals more large IIBs and syndication, ears on central bank talk