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Articles by Bnzeconomists


Another edge lower

While geopolitics weighs on Eurozone, US markets outperform, locals on Fonterra watch

NZ swap yields slide again

NZ 2 yr swaps slip toward 4% in pullback induced by the RBNZ election pause, pointing to a potential hedging opportunity

A step lower

Markets looking for signs of RBNZ currency intervention, Fonterra payout update, then US unemployment data

RBNZ will note rising pricing intensions

US bonds slide on weaker US capital goods shipments, despite strong durable goods orders

Swaps fall but bonds rise overnight

Drive to 'neutral' rates gets a pause, 'period of assessment' may last until past December

Bold and direct warning over NZD

RBNZ says NZD not yet adjusting to falling commodity prices and is unjustifiably high and unsustainable

NZD/AUD drops sharply after the AU-CPI release

Markets reduce its pricing of an RBA rate cut to 40%, down from 70%; less support seen for NZD over rest of the year

Bond yields decline, swap curve flattens

NZ-AU yields narrow as market retreats from expecting an AU rate cut, may narrow further

NZ swaps drift lower

Pull-back in rates may extend beyond the RBNZ meeting as a hike pause is expected until after the election

NZD ambles lower

Risk sensitive markets were fairly buoyant overnight despite geopolitical tensions, sanguine Stevens gives AUD a boost

Migration pressures RBNZ

Migration adds demand worries for Wheeler, but offset by other data that might support a softer tone on Thursday

Anticipation lull

RBNZ and the US Fed get all the market focus; markets see RBNZ wavering, wary of US CPI uptick

Striking lack of NZD volatility

NZD holds up well avoiding plunging and then surging global risk appetite; RBNZ will be eyeing todays migration data

Risk off

NZGBs enjoy a decent price rally. NZ swaps and bonds closed down on Friday by 3-8 bps

Violence sees flight to safety

Random shooting down of passenger plane, continuation of conflict in Gaza and potential Chinese bond default sees volatility index spike and NZD fall

Long swaps drift lower

Overnight Ukraine jetliner crash sees UST 10yr yields fall sharply, now near 2014 lows

USD continues to climb

Market focused on ugly Chinese housing data which sees sell off in AUD and NZD; NZD worst performer by handy margin

RBNZ rate hike expectations pared

'We still consider a July rate hike effectively a done deal, since we can’t imagine the RBNZ would be pleased with market interest rates falling further': BNZ

Dairy fall surprises fx markets

NZD takes a modest fall on a major change in dairy prices, but it could be unwound if today's CPI is higher than expected

One way traffic

Swaps move higher without offshore receiving support; today's CPI data unlikely to deter RBNZ from hiking again next week