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Articles by Bnzeconomists


NZD pummeled over last 24 hours

NZDUSD down 1.4% following Q3 CPI release; OCR expectations reduce; Global PMI readings above expectations

Rates now close to cycle trough

Market sentiment rises as Eurozone manufacturing expanding again. Yields rise worldwide and NZ expected to follow

NZD/USD lower, with more risk from CPI data

Both the CAD and AUD in focus with volatile moves but no new trends, markets await NZ CPI and US PMI

Market risks misinterpreting today's CPI data

NZ swaps up, UST 10yr yields up, markets see an RBA cut by year end, eyes on NZ CPI today

Immigration boom remains intact

Immigration net annualised gain of 56,000 exceeds previous highs in 2002/03; EUR weaker as ECB commences asset purchase program; AUD surges on Chinese data

NZ yields lower today 'but will be higher next year'

International equities push higher and bond yields rise; RBNZ seen as 'flexible' in use of policy tools

Strength across the board

Recent data shows 'NZ economy is on a very sound footing' says BNZ, expects NZD to hold its value better than the AUD

BNZ pushes out forecast for OCR hike by 6 months

BNZ pushes back its expectation of RBNZ rate hikes to September 2015 on a lower CPI track. Still sees OCR higher by +75 bps in a year

USD strengthening

Yellen's inequality speech provides little guidance for markets; locally, eyes will be on Q3 CPI this week

Expecting downward pressure on NZ yields

Markets bracing for a period of increased volatility; better US data sees a sell-off in US Treasuries and yields rise

Head scratching over NZD jump

Equity market carnage; volatility the winner as VIX hits highest point since 2011; NZD rally bizarre as it is trumping JPY & CHF in a skittish market

Interest rates markets shell-shocked

US 10-year Treasury yields plunge to 1.88% before snapping back to 2.09%, and a major fall for the day

Euro falls on shocking data

Fears Germany will experience negative growth in Q3 signalling a technical recession; Euro-zone industrial production contracts by 1.8%; oil price collapse sends CAD to its weakest level since GFC

Risk aversion drives down yields

NZ interest rates grind lower as global growth concerns weigh on international interest rate markets

NZDUSD up 1%

Food price index fall creates downside risk to Q3 CPI forecasts; anticipated US policy tightening sends NZDUSD sharply higher; Chinese trade figures stronger

NZ The curve squeezed lower by 3–5 bps

NZ swaps fall in sympathy with US rates as markets push out expectations of Fed Funds Rate hikes

NZD rises against the AUD

The immediate direction for the NZD could be determined by the upcoming GDT auction, especially if prices fall again

US 10-year yields slump, NZ swaps may follow

US 10-year yields fall again to 2.28%, their lowest levels since mid-June 2013

Volatility spikes

Gauge of market fear (VIX) jumps 18% on continued concerns around global growth; NZDUSD down 0.7%; safe haven currencies JPY & CHF star performers

NZ swap and bond yields down again

The yield on NZGB23s is now at 4.07%, close to its lowest level since June last year