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Articles by Bnzeconomists


NZD/AUD drops sharply after the AU-CPI release

Markets reduce its pricing of an RBA rate cut to 40%, down from 70%; less support seen for NZD over rest of the year

Bond yields decline, swap curve flattens

NZ-AU yields narrow as market retreats from expecting an AU rate cut, may narrow further

NZ swaps drift lower

Pull-back in rates may extend beyond the RBNZ meeting as a hike pause is expected until after the election

NZD ambles lower

Risk sensitive markets were fairly buoyant overnight despite geopolitical tensions, sanguine Stevens gives AUD a boost

Migration pressures RBNZ

Migration adds demand worries for Wheeler, but offset by other data that might support a softer tone on Thursday

Anticipation lull

RBNZ and the US Fed get all the market focus; markets see RBNZ wavering, wary of US CPI uptick

Striking lack of NZD volatility

NZD holds up well avoiding plunging and then surging global risk appetite; RBNZ will be eyeing todays migration data

Risk off

NZGBs enjoy a decent price rally. NZ swaps and bonds closed down on Friday by 3-8 bps

Violence sees flight to safety

Random shooting down of passenger plane, continuation of conflict in Gaza and potential Chinese bond default sees volatility index spike and NZD fall

Long swaps drift lower

Overnight Ukraine jetliner crash sees UST 10yr yields fall sharply, now near 2014 lows

USD continues to climb

Market focused on ugly Chinese housing data which sees sell off in AUD and NZD; NZD worst performer by handy margin

RBNZ rate hike expectations pared

'We still consider a July rate hike effectively a done deal, since we can’t imagine the RBNZ would be pleased with market interest rates falling further': BNZ

Dairy fall surprises fx markets

NZD takes a modest fall on a major change in dairy prices, but it could be unwound if today's CPI is higher than expected

One way traffic

Swaps move higher without offshore receiving support; today's CPI data unlikely to deter RBNZ from hiking again next week

NZD a smidge lower

Data and risk-on fail to keep the NZD party rising; VIX falls back again. Markets look to Yellen for boost but may be disappointed

Risk on, volume off

Skinny trading but yields rise both locally and internationally; eyes on Yellen testimony and RBA minutes

NZD torn between appeal and risk

Stevens' talk ineffective, Portugal risk pullback, markets await a big load of key US data

Equity market nerves rattle bonds

Swaps lower on UST slips; eyes on CPI but RBNZ expected to hike twice more in 2014

'Poised for another crack'

NZD poised for new high against the USD, VIX spurts higher on eurozone news, mixed messages for AUD, eyes on US earnings

UST yields fall sharply

AU swaps lower on unemployment; foreigners like our bonds; local swap rates follow USTs lower again