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Articles by Bnzeconomists


Accelerated decline for NZ dollar

RBNZ unceremoniously dumps tightening bias and NZD sold off immediately; steady-as-she-goes approach from US Fed; only game in town is to be long USD

A direct neutral position

Yields plunge and chances of a rate cut rise as the RBNZ revises its market signals. US Fed's tame statement did not stop US yield falls too

Pockets of explosions

Markets and policy makers get the jitters ahead of US Fed announcements. Greek hardball may backfire

Strong Kauri issues

Strong demand for NZD rate products. Swap markest await signals from RBNZ

Weak US data hits USD

EUR key benefactor from remarkably weak US durable goods orders; USD underperforming other G10 currencies; markets waiting for FOMC and RBNZ announcements

Central bank watch

Disappointing US data sees benchmark rates fall; eyes now on the Fed who are expected to maintain tightening stance; and the RBNZ

Watering down?

Market is looking for too much from the RBNZ tomorrow; volatility likely. Volatility likely with the euro too on Greek stress

A 50% chance of a cut?

Market pricing challenges the RBNZ based on offshore settings, but today we should see upward and steepening curve pressure

Markets rate cut bets overplayed?

NZD may gain following RBNZ signals that rate cuts unlikely; but soft AU CPI may encourage RBA rate cuts

Markets view diverges from the pros

Markets move to price in an OCR cut in 2015, although BNZ see this as unlikely. German 10yr bonds now yield 0.36%

NZD gets only faint ripples from ECB

Even though NZ economy expanding with no inflation, markets focused on the 'no inflation' and pricing in higher chances of a rate cut. Kiwi dollar slips

Local markets raise rate-cut bets

Turbulent night on bond markets. UST yields higher, NZ swap rates fall, ECB even beats recently raised extectations

NZD dragged lower again

Kiwi currency falling as commodity block countries get marked down. Canada reacts. Eyes now firmly on the ECB

Below cash

Rising UST yields may steepen NZ swap curves; surprise Canadian rate cut; huge ECB stimulus speculation

A NZD downtrend became entrenched overnight

Kiwi currency ends its unsuccessful flirtation with the notion of parity with the AUD. China data doesn't excite but Greece might

Low rates attract borrowers

Mortgage demand may start impacting swap rates. Markets likely to ignore dairy auction but will focus on Q4 CPI

ECB positioning sets the tone

Danes defend euro peg, cut rates to align with euro. But NZD will be more influenced by Chinese GDP result later today

Consolidating lower

Slump in US yields followed by German yield falls. Flat NZ curve sustained. Focus now on today's QSBO

Relentless rally in US treasuries continues

Swiss National Bank move sends ripples through markets; German & US bond yields fall again; expect NZ long bond yields to follow global counterparts

Swiss shirt-front markets

Swiss National Bank shock decision to abandon EUR/CHF floor and cut interest rates by 50 bps sends NZD 1.4% higher; excellent Australian job report