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Articles by Bnzeconomists


NZD appeal dented

The extended elevated run by the NZD is undermining RBNZ inflation assumptions, may induce an OCR hike interruption

Rates rally on CPI undershoot

US Treasury yields rise on positive US economic data; BoC holds rates; EU inflation adjusted lower

NZD broadly weaker

Declining dairy prices and rising consumer prices may see inflation at the top of the RBNZ target 'before long': BNZ

NZ swaps constrained by US CPI

Bond yields fall as risk aversion rises, pushed by Ukraine tension; inflation data tame

'NZ commodity prices have peaked'

Lower dairy prices 'will take a toll on the NZD in time'; USD boosted by higher retail in March; eyes on RBA for AUD view

NZ swaps follow offshore yields lower

Better than expected US retail sales report sees UST yields rise; eyes on tomorrow's CPI and Thursday's DMO auction

The 'remarkable' Kiwi dollar

Lofty, low-volatility NZD a target currency for the carry trade despite deteriorating global risk appetite

NZGB immune to offshore rally

The flattening of the curve in recent days is attracting corporate interest to pay at the long-end as these rates sink

Risk retrenchment

USD limped lower overnight, surprise Aussie jobs gains, weak China trade but surplus grows

US 10-year yields slump

Greek yields highlight the high NZ Govt bond yields; sharp fall in UST yields overnight which are expected to flow here

NZD/USD now at 3 year high

Dovish Fed minutes spur risk with stocks, gold, oil all higher and the USD lower; Aussie jobless rate to rise

10yr swaps attract corporates

Fed minutes trigger big bond reaction because Fed members think US labour markets are slacker than official stats show

NZD/USD pushed higher overnight

Little reaction to strong QSBO despite signals that pricing intentions foreshadow rising inflation

Long end swaps down

NZ swaps move little on offshore volatility although upcoming Fed minutes will be watched closely for signals

NZD trades in a tight range

QSBO likely to be more positive, supporting the currency; international equities deline

Payers drawn to lower yields

Yields drop in New York on falling equity prices, dragging local rates down and providing opportunities for SMEs and mortgage funders

Good but not great NFP report

NZD rises after US payrolls report; eyes on QV and QSBO; Canada also making jobs progress

No surprises in US jobs data

'Expected' US jobs data results in sharp fall in US Treasury yields; downward pressure expected here today

US payrolls hold the key

NZD vulnerable to US NFP surprises; ECB’s Governing Council is now "unanimous in its commitment" to use unconventional policy tools

Markets expect positive US jobs data

Yields expected to rise as US employment improves; upward pressure on NZ swap rates with curve slightly steeper