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Articles by Bnzeconomists


Dabbling sideways

NZ 2-year swap closed at 3.55%, markets eyeing on ANZ business confidence survey for direction, especially pricing intentions

AUD worst of the bunch

Risk appetite ticks up; resumed USD strength leaves AUD struggling; EUR weighed down by Greece (again); support for NZD/USD at 74c

Weighed down by stigma

Commodity-linked currencies take a hit as the iron ore slumps further and oil falls, although NZD pushes higher against the AUD

'More assertive than the snail’s pace assumed'

Yellen's signals to build on rising and steepening rate moves in local markets. Bond-swap spreads widen

Middle East tension drives yields higer

US 10-year yields up 10 bps to 2%; expect NZ yields to follow offshore markets today; NZ yield curve remains pretty flat

Sharp swings in USD

Risk-off sentiment, poor sharemarket performance, suprising US data and Saudi military operations in Yemen combine to drive USD higher against majors

Bond yields and carry trade drive the NZD

Good German confidence and 'woeful' US data pushes around the majors, but the NZD comes through relatively unscathed

Local opportunity ahead of Fed

US Fed spokespeople set the tone in the bond markets, reinforcing the goal of higher rates this year - even though markets see short-term data as weak

NZ swaps lower

US inflation data fails to boost UST yields. US-German spreads narrow. China factories slip into contraction

China's 7% growth target under threat

Chinese PMI comes in below 50; US headline inflation positive surprise; NZD/USD remains well supported

German 10-year bond yields jump 20%

Lack of local data has local yields following offshore lead; yield spread between NZ and major peers becoming attractive; German bond yields trading at 0.22%

NZD/USD above 100-day moving average

A close in the NZD/USD above 76c seen as bullish signal; Fed Vice Chair affirms rate rise likely before year-end; AUD outperforming peers

NZD the outperformer

Rate cut expectations in Australia will support the NZD which could see a new push to 98 AUc

'Entire curve moved higher'

UST benchmark rates fall but NZ swap rates rise. RBA looking at 'sub-average growth'. Eyes on Fonterra board meeting

NZD/USD back to pre-FOMC levels

USD fighting back; NZD/AUD making another run at 97c; speculation grows for a further RBA rate cut in April

Down, down, down

NZ swap and bond yields fall sharply. Curve flattens creating corporate paying opportunity. More of same expected today

USD trades lower on FOMC statement

FOMC delivers more dovish statement than expected and rules out April rate hike; US export growth weakened; median forecasts for interest rates lower

Yields sinking everywhere

US Fed signals push UST yields down. More downward pressure expected on NZ yields today. Eyes now on NZ Q4 GDP

Heightened nervousness ahead of FOMC

Commodity currencies suffer. Local eyes on today's current account deficit with analysts expecting it to worsen to -3.3% of GDP

NZ swap curve flatter

NZ rates will be under pressure from 'soft' GDT auction; everyone else awaiting FOMC