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Articles by Bnzeconomists


Volatility in US treasuries

US treasury yields flicking up and down on data; Federal Reserve acknowledges downside risks to global growth and substantial improvement to domestic US labour market

USD volatility data driven

China's economic growth balanced on a knife edge; Eurozone PMI data a blow to hopes of a recovery into year-end; conflicting US data sees USD spike, slump, then recover

NZD suffers negative sentiment

AUD 'worst' performing currency overnight, dragging Kiwi with it; eyes on Fed minutes, NZ PPI

German and US yields push higher

NZ swap curve steepens; Fitch raises LGFA ratings outlook, markets await Fed minutes

Chunky moves on most crosses

Dairy auction results halt the NZD's upward track; USD weaker, euro stronger, yen likes snap election call, Aussies expect further falls

NZ 2yr swaps below fair value

BNZ expects the rate curve to steepen through 2015. Disappointing GDT auction result will keep markets subdued

NZD stronger on most of the crosses

Currency markets focused on the recession in Japan, and the ECB's signal that buying sovereign bonds is now a real option

NZ yields drift lower

Draghi confirms buying sovereign bonds an option for the ECB, Japan's new recession weights on markets, US 10-year yields push up

NZD higher

Gains against the USD, Yen and GBP as those currencies all weakened; but these trends lack conviction

NZ yields will steepen

Services sector strength expected to be confirmed but growth not breeding infation yet

NZD up despite China

Expanding local factory sector bullish on jobs, underpins rise in NZD. Gains strong vs JPY and GBP

NZ swap rates higher

A more hawkish RBNZ and a confident Fonterra underpin a local rise in swap and bond yields; offshore yields drifted

Neutral cash rate remains at 4.50%

Swaps rise as RBNZ keeps LVR restrictions in place for now; BNZ view is OCR hikes on hold until December 2015

Positive surprise from Fonterra

Fonterra confirms milk price forecast; positive momentum driving NZD higher; UK CPI to fall below 1%

Risk RBNZ could resume hiking cycle

Flurry of speculation around removal of LVR limits; NZ swap rates bounce higher; 2-10s curve sits at 53bps; generic 10-yr bond yielding well above developed nations

Japanese snap election speculation

NZDJPY at highest level since October 2007; thin volumes due to US holiday helps NZD push higher; Oil price continues recent decline

USD regains some composure

Q3 earnings reports stronger, supporting Wall Street and keeping risk appetites healthy; Swiss voting on gold holdings

NZ swaps close down 3-6 bps

NZ yields take their cue from post-US payrolls rally in US Treasuries; US holiday restrains markets

NZD rises on USD weakness

Currency markets punish the USD on jobs report, thinking Fed will push back hike plans. But reaction 'difficult to justify'

US 10yr yields fall sharply

Low US wage pressure has bond market reassessing likely Fed response; NZ swap rates likely to flatten this week