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Housing confidence softens in ASB survey ahead of OCR hike, May 20 budget

Posted in News

The ASB Housing Confidence Survey for the three months to January has found the resurgence of housing confidence last year has abated slightly in 2010 as investors focused on the upcoming increase in the Reserve Bank's Official Cash Rate and uncertainty over property taxes.

"Despite some reduction in the favourable tailwinds for property, house price expectations remained firm over the quarter," ASB said. The survey found 50% of those surveyed believed now was a good time to buy property, down from 59% previously.

The survey found awareness about  the RBNZ's  "middle of the year" timing for a hike in the Official Cash Rate and uncertainty around tax policy changes was likely to weigh on the house market until details were announced in the May 20 Budget.

"Real estate agents have also recently noted increased uncertainty within the market following the Tax Working Group's (TWG) recommendation to Government to change the tax treatment around housing investment. The Government has indicated that it is ruling out recommended measures such as capital gains tax or land tax. However, we do expect the Government will make some changes to the tax treatment of property."

The survey found regional differences with Auckland price expectations rising steadily over the quarter while regional price expectations were subdued.

"The pattern over the three-month period was for Aucklanders to become increasingly more optimistic about the house price outlook, while respondents in the rest of the North Island and in the South Island started to become more cautious about the outlook as the quarter progressed."

See the full release here

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

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4 Comments

There are so many contradictions

There are so many contradictions and ambiguities in this piece that it is difficult to know what to make of it all.
So, how about just one point re. the final para: does being optimisitc about the house price outlook mean that you want prices to go up or down?

And yet the Herald spins

And yet the Herald spins it in the opposite direction ..

Housing confidence rising, says ASB

Housing confidence is on the rise in Auckland, while a new survey is showing growing uncertainty about tax changes and rising interest rates.
The latest ASB New Zealand Housing Confidence survey out today shows that respondents have been thinking more favourably about buying a house since the last quarter.
People in the North Island were more optimistic than those in the South. Expectations of increase in house prices are substantially higher in Auckland (56 per cent) than in other parts of the North Island (45 per cent).
This trend is also reflected further from Auckland in the results for South Island respondents.
Only 33 per cent of people in the South Island think it is a good time to buy a house this quarter compared to the national average of 48 per cent)
ASB chief executive Nick Tuffley says the South Island had "previously been the roaring bull."

The country is obsessed with

The country is obsessed with sitting in fat cars and lying in fat houses. Surfin and climbing trees are just as valuable dude.

This is a wonderful opinion.

This is a wonderful opinion. The things mentioned are unanimous and needs to be appreciated by everyone.