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Opinion: No growth until the exchange rate falls
By Roger J Kerr
Recent employment, housing and retail economic statistics have all been universally weaker than expected or forecast.
Term swap interest rates have moved downwards in response and market pricing/economist predictions for the timing of OCR increases this year have firmly moved back to July/August.
The wider financial community is now realising the hurt being felt in average household budgets as job security deteriorates and big ticket purchases are put on hold.
The property market breathed some relief last week that land taxes and capital gains taxes seem to be off the Government's agenda, however expect property depreciation changes and rental investment property ring-fencing for tax purposes.
The RBNZ can relax about any housing-fuelled consumer spending threatening the benign inflation outlook in 2010.
These worries were exaggerated in the first place.
The speed, strength and durability of the economic recovery in 2010 still depends heavily on the export sector (and the commodity prices and exchange rates they transact at).
Like any winning Super 14 rugby team the forward pack engine-room will determine success or failure.
So it also goes with the NZ economy, with the export engine-room vital to growth.
The RBNZ's GDP growth forecast for 2010 is heavily dependent upon stock rebuilding and 10% growth business investment. I repeat my earlier prediction that neither is going to happen and as the year progresses the RBNZ economic gurus will see this as well.
Economic growth will continue to disappoint over the first six months of 2010, the timing of interest rate increases will continue to be pushed back until the currency depreciates and the export sector starts to drive higher GDP growth.
On the proviso that the NZ dollar does decline further to 0.6500 and below (which I expect), from August/September onwards until early 2011 90-day and 2/3 year swap interest rates will be increasing rapidly up to near the current 4 and 5 year swaps rates (the yield curve flattening, but still positively sloping).
"”"”"”"”"”-
* Roger J Kerr runs Asia Pacific Risk Management. He specialises in fixed interest securities and is a commentator on economics and markets. More commentary and useful information on fixed interest investing can be found at rogeradvice.com
12 Comments
Roger, if it was oh
Roger, if it was oh so simple. In 1995 my farm costs were %35 of gross income, this year without Fertiliser %85 of gross income with Fert %1.05 of gross income. My biggest problem is costs and a .65 $ is really going to help blow my costs out. We are beyond simple tinkering, small tax adjustments,lower dollar and such are not going to make a rats a*se of a difference. Someone needs to jump on the reset button,thats a highly unlikely scenario so producers will continue to be bled dry until there is little or no productive sector left. We have our own Blood sucking Squid around our necks it called Government it comes in many shapes and sizes and no body has the courage to challenge it. Costs like electricity,rates,insurance,fuel,road user charges, I could go on and on are in the process of running away on us and a lower dollar could make the situation worse.There is no simple answer except to slash costs and reduce the size of our Govt,fat chance of that.
One of the things we
One of the things we can do as businesses to survive short term, well to be specific, not do, is maintenance. I should be spending 10% of my gross income on maintenance. This is a bit of a rude joke of course. In the meantime I look 10 - 20 years out and wonder how my farm is going to look.
While I can survive like this for a good few years, the capital improvements on my land are rapidly aging. I need the funds to be able to fix stuff and improve stuff. Without this I see a spiral downwards. The good years when these buildings, fences, watersupply and infrastructure were built are long gone. The bubble in property conveniently overlooked replacing these structures at some point in time. I believe local authorities have a requirement to save for replacement and depreciation. Sadly the private sector has borrowed so much, spent their coin, with no thought to the future.
We not only have no growth at this exchange rate, we have no maintenance, effectively going backwards, where is that represented in the economists graphs.
Roger, When you (or any
Roger,
When you (or any other economists incl. Alan Bollard) say this...
"The RBNZ can relax about any housing-fuelled consumer spending threatening the benign inflation outlook in 2010."
... you are all lying through your teeth!!!
When are you starting to include ALL REAL inflation data from the real world such as above mentioned business maintenance, housing cost inflation, food cost inflation via smaller packaging at same (or slightly-higher-so-you-won't-notice) cost, local government charges growth substantially exceeding inflation real or imagined low every year...???
It's plain and simple. I, for one, have zero respect for any of your or any other economist's opinions until inflation data is not distorted as it is now. I would even go as far as saying it is criminal how badly the public at large are being misled with official statistics and for how long we all let you get away with it!
And let's not get started with the myth of 'economic growth' being our salvation...
A short-term,small-thinking appraisal. Globally, everyone
A short-term,small-thinking appraisal. Globally, everyone else is being exhorted to export too.
Who to?
The flaw in the philosophy (to treat it with a grandiosity it doesn't deserve) is that the whole thing hinges on getting more and more folk - somewhere - to consume more and more (jointly and severally) while producing more and more as they do so.
Hey, forget sleep, don't do sport, don't relax. This is exponential expansion we have to have here - now let's see - double 40 hours is 80, double 80 is 160, double 160 is - oh shit, only 8 hours a week for sleep. Must have more offspring.....oops, I'm too tired.
And I have to go to the shops on the way to work........
And this on a finite planet, which we're chewing into at (best estimate) three times the sustainable rate.
Come on Mr Kerr - can you have economic growth (the increase of which is undeniably an exponential function) ad infinitum without the extraction of physical resources to underwrite same?
I say not. I say that Borwnlees DoC efforts and Heatleys ditto, are manifestation of the pending failure of your growth-based regimen.
That's the debate which has to be had, in this and every country.
Until it is had, this kind of stuff can only be seen as short-term bleatings from a dying religion.
It would be a joke, except for the untenable legacy our offspring will inherit.
Yes, there will be a demand for food. Globally unsatisfiable. We don't feed the starving now, though, because they can't afford our prices. That will only get worse.
And how we continue to do agriculture and fertiliser sans fossil oil?
We are now into the last possible 'doubling time' of them all.
Time we looked to sustainability, rather than growth.
So what will Bollard do
So what will Bollard do if we end up with stagflation ? Raising interest rates to fight inflation will hardly help matters ??
What they appear to be
What they appear to be doing is manipulating the CPI index. They always have but now they need to get really good at it.
It would be a frightening
It would be a frightening prospect to think just how much local government could up the rates charges if cpi was much higher though?
And then the public service would have more ammunition to up their pay rise claims?
Rock and a hard place.
Hamish, The local council rates
Hamish,
The local council rates are based on your property values. Not that this is necessarily a good mechanism either, but at least we could get some satisfaction over the next few years of a rates-take collapse if property prices would fall by a significant amount in a relatively short time. Can't wait for the day we see massive property deleveraging and as a result have the councils severely sqeezed into a corner and having to deleverage (downsize/cut budgets/cut rates) themselves...
ctnz Stephen Joyce has openly
ctnz
Stephen Joyce has openly discussed his belief that councils should be able to issue bonds to allow them to increase spending so as to prop up the local economies in difficult times.
cntz - your dreaming The
cntz - your dreaming
The councils work out what revenue they want, then divide by the value of properties in their area.
If the property values half, then the rate per $100 of value doubles. (that why they are called 'rates')
Same rates revenue, same value of rates per property (all things being equal).
Bollard is likely to keep
Bollard is likely to keep the OCR too low for too long and inflation will end up going way above what he has forcast (just like unemployment) resulting in a panic OCR increase earlier than planned.
Within the current (failing system)
Within the current (failing system) I tend to agree with Roger. However the system is sick from the top down. We need massive global monetary reform to fix this debt based fractional reserve F#$%% up!
A must watch is the documentry 'The Secret Of Oz' :
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6cq9yEVcGIU&feature=player_embedded