In this section
Offers for readers
Follow the news from interest
The comment stream
Recent comments
- 1 of 20764
- ››
Editors choice
- 1 of 294
- ››
Finance sector jobs
Reporting to the Senior Manager Operational Risk Effectiveness and Assurance, the key focu...more
New Zealand
Reporting to the Head of Finance - Retail and Business Bank the key focus of this role is ...more
New Zealand
This role in consultation with the Financial Controller provides financial, strategic and ...more
New Zealand
If you are motivated by the prospect of seeing the big picture, developing your team and m...more
New Zealand
The news stream
Latest news
Most commented
- 'Don't sell SOE shares; Borrow from Kiwis' 143
- Record exodus to Australia in last year 75
- 90 seconds at 9 am 43
- BNZ cuts most fixed mortgage rates 39
- 'Councils should look at asset sales' 34
- English wants more house builds 30
- Fonterra cuts payout forecast 29
- Budget tax moves to target high income NZers 25
- 90 seconds at 9 am: No G8 deal 20
- NZ to borrow more if crisis worsens-Key 19
Most viewed
House prices rising as new listings fail to appear, QV says
House prices were up 0.2% in the three months to October from the same period a year ago, but market activity remains below normal spring levels as listings fail to materialise, Quoteable Value has reported in its monthly report on house prices. Prices remain 7.5% below the peak in January 2008, but are now up 4.1% from their trough in April 2009. "Market activity remains below normal spring levels. The number of sales has remained relatively static over the past few months, and there is little evidence of an increase in new listings in most areas" said QV Valuation Manager Glenda Whitehead. "The continued shortage of properties, especially in the main urban areas, is leading to a continued imbalance in the market with more buyers than available properties. As a result our Valuers are seeing many properties sell for well above their expected values. These demand-based price increases are likely to continue until the balance in the market changes." The full QV report is below.
Property values are now above the same time last year according to the QV residential property indices for October released today. Nationally, values are 0.2 percent above the same time last year, up from the -1.1 percent reported last month. Nationwide values are now 3.4 percent up from their low in April, but remain 6.6 percent below the market peak of late 2007. A further market measure, distinct from the index, is the average sale price which across New Zealand also increased slightly to $389,198 in October from $387,567 in September. "Market activity remains below normal spring levels. The number of sales has remained relatively static over the past few months, and there is little evidence of an increase in new listings in most areas" said QV Valuation Manager Glenda Whitehead. "The continued shortage of properties, especially in the main urban areas, is leading to a continued imbalance in the market with more buyers than available properties. As a result our Valuers are seeing many properties sell for well above their expected values. These demand-based price increases are likely to continue until the balance in the market changes. This will happen either when more properties come onto the market, or when buyers consider prices to be beyond their affordability and as a result consider other parts of the market, or resolve to continue their current living arrangements. Building consents have risen in recent months but it will take some time yet for those properties to reach the market" said Whitehead. "The lack of strong spring activity could be due to several factors. Many owners will have locked in to lower long term interest rates at the beginning of the year and will be concerned about losing those rates if they sell. Having made the decision some months ago to stay put, they may now be extending or renovating and no longer be considering selling" said Whitehead. "While it is clearly a good time to sell, especially in the main centres, needing to buy again in a market which has a shortage of available properties for sale will also be putting some people off" said Whitehead. Values in the main centres have recovered considerably since earlier this year. As a result, most of the main centres now have values above the same time last year. In the Auckland Area values are now 2.5 percent above last year, the Wellington Area is 1.6 percent up, Christchurch 1.3 percent up, and Dunedin 4.3 percent up. Hamilton is only 0.1 percent below last year, while Tauranga remains the only main centre to be below last year at -1.4 percent. Values in most of the provincial centres have not risen as much in recent months as the main centres. As a result most are still showing values below the same time last year. Whangarei is -3.3, Rotorua -0.9 percent, Gisborne -7.9 percent, Wanganui -3.2 percent, and Invercargill -0.8 percent. New Plymouth at 4.6 percent, Palmerston North at 2.4 and Nelson at 0.6 percent are above last year. Values in Queenstown Lakes have continued to slide further and are now -9.4 percent below last year. Property values in the Auckland region increased by 2.5% over the past year (calculated over the three months ending October 2009 in comparison to the same period last year), a substantial improvement on the 0.6% annual growth reported in September. The average sale price for the region decreased slightly from $507,617 to $506,642. Glenda Whitehead of QV Valuations said; "Within the Auckland region, conditions and trends seem to have changed very little over the last month. Agents continue to report a lack of listings in many suburbs and across the various price brackets. Demand remains strong from first home buyers and those trading-up. A significant number of properties continue to be sold via auction, which is producing results ranging from many being passed-in to those that are exceeding vendor expectations. For general listings we are aware of multi-offer situations". "Within Auckland City, demand in the price range of $600,000 to $900,000 in suburbs close to the CBD remains strong, with values well up on those achieved at the beginning of 2009. Listings in this price bracket are low, creating multi-offer situations and strong results at auction" Ms Whitehead said. "In Waitakere, our valuers report that more investors have come out of the woodwork, but their activity to date remains subdued. Building activity including renovations, new builds and infill housing is now noticeable. Some activity is also evident in the higher price bracket in this City" Ms Whitehead said. "Within Manukau, demand from first home buyers and owner-occupiers appears to have returned in the newer suburbs of Dannemora and Flat Bush, which has resulted in mild price appreciation recently. While investors are active in areas such as Papatoetoe and Manurewa, prices remain relatively stable" Ms Whitehead said. "On the North Shore we are now seeing an increased number of sales in excess of $2 million, particularly within the Milford/Takapuna area. However, to sell in this price bracket homes need to be substantially sized with an obvious coastal flavour. This portion of the market was stagnant in 2008, and although things are slowly moving now, prices are still not back to 2007 levels" Ms Whitehead said. "While there are obviously some buyers willing to push values up in order to secure property, we continue to see purchasers remaining cautious, setting their value limits and walking away where prices exceed their expectations" Ms Whitehead said. Hamilton Property values in Hamilton decreased by 0.1% over the past year (calculated over the three months ending October 2009 in comparison to the same period last year), a slight improvement on the 0.9% annual decline reported in September. The average sale price for the city decreased from $344,971 to $342,853. Mr. Richard Allen of QV Valuations said; "Our statistics this month show that the slight backward value fluctuation we saw in last month was a slight aberration. The residential market in the city has stabilised for the time being". "All four areas in the city experienced slight improvement, the largest being in the Central City/North West Hamilton area where property values increased from -0.2 % in September to 1.8% in October. The South East also improved from -1.2 % to -0.6%, although is not yet experiencing positive year-on-year growth. The South West improved from -1.4% to -0.9%, and Hamilton North East from -1.2% to -0.6%" Mr. Allen said. "Whether or not this recovery will continue remains to be seen. The market has already absorbed a number of potential set-backs which appeared likely because of poor regional economic factors. It now appears that a sustained period of stability will ensue" Mr. Allen said. Tauranga Property values in Tauranga declined by 1.4% over the past year (calculated over the three months ending October 2009 in comparison to the same period last year), a slight improvement on the 1.8% annual decline reported in September. The average sale price for the region decreased slightly from $402,880 to $400,367. Shayne Donovan-Grammer of QV Valuations said; "Talk of Tauranga's property market being a seller's market is a little bit misleading. Whether a buyer or seller holds the upper hand is largely dependant on the property's price bracket and location. We are seeing different parts of the market behaving quite differently". "The first two weeks of October kicked-off well as one would expect for this time of year, but the last couple of weeks have seen the property market hit a flat patch. Talk of a capital gains tax is not exactly the news investors want to hear, which could see activity levels dwindle somewhat" said Mr. Donovan-Grammer. Wellington Property values in the Wellington region increased by 1.6% over the past year (calculated over the three months ending October 2009 in comparison to the same period last year), an improvement on the 1.1% annual growth reported in September. The average sale price for the region increased from $436,633 to $438,584. Wellington City Council ratepayers have recently received their updated Rating Values from QV. Rating Value changes are over two years and are therefore not comparable to the year-on-year figures quoted above. Pieter Geill of QV Valuations said: "The shortage of listings in Wellington and the Hutt Valley continues. The traditional spring resurgence which we would normally see at this time of year is still holding off and is putting upward pressure on prices. Good homes are attracting competition amongst buyers, especially at tender which seems to be an effective sales method in this scenario". "Interestingly, the upward price pressure seems to be localised to main centres. In more provincial areas of the Wellington region there seems to be more listings and less competition amongst buyers. Supply and demand are more balanced in these areas which is alleviating any substantial price increases for the time being. This situation is especially prevalent in areas where batches and second homes are traditionally popular" Mr. Geill said. "There still appears to be mortgagee and distressed sales around, and I believe these will hover for the medium term. Although some borrowers are benefitting from the current floating rate, interest rates are rising again and unemployment is predicted to reach 7%" said Mr. Geill. Christchurch Property values in Christchurch increased by 1.3% over the past year (calculated over the three months ending October 2009 in comparison to the same period last year), an improvement on the 0.4% annual growth reported in September. The average sale price for the city increased from $348,922 to $352,962. Melanie Swallow of QV Valuations said; "Suburban Christchurch has held well with the southwest suburbs showing the greatest recovery, up 1.9 per cent year-on-year. This area is closely followed by the central and northern suburbs at 1.6 per cent. Whilst these results are encouraging, they must be treated with caution. There are also signs of a heavily segmented, two-tier market". "In the entry-level part of the market, many properties are being taken to auction and are achieving very strong results, in some cases above what we would consider market value. This is fantastic if you need to sell, but those who are purchasing need to exercise caution. Competition is strongest in this part of the market, attributable in part to a shortage of stock available for sale" said Mrs. Swallow. "House prices in provincial areas are showing a slower recovery, with more balance between the volume of homes for sale and active purchasers. This might be more indicative of market characteristics yet to be experienced for metropolitan Christchurch. We expect this current trend to continue through the summer months" said Mrs. Swallow. Dunedin Property values in Dunedin increased by 4.3% over the past year (calculated over the three months ending October 2009 in comparison to the same period last year), a substantial improvement on the 2.2% annual growth reported in September. The average sale price in Dunedin increased from $258,103 to $268,253. Mr. Tim Gibson of QV Valuations said; "Residential property values in Dunedin have continued their strong recovery since bottoming out early in 2009. Our statistics show that this is the third consecutive month of positive annual growth within the city, with property values approximately 5.5% above the low of early 2009. This growth has been fairly constant for all parts of Dunedin. Values are still 5.4% below the peak of the market in July 2007 however". "The market has again been driven by a lower number of properties entering the market, resulting in shorter selling times. This low level of listed property has resulted in a classic demand and supply situation where the high demand for properties has often resulted in multiply parties negotiating the price upwards" Mr. Gibson said. "National building consents have also shown an increase recently. This could indicate that more property owners are choosing to renovate their existing homes, instead of selling and upgrading. This could be one reason why less property is going to market at present" Mr. Gibson said.
61 Comments
Looks like BNZ's Tony Alexander
Looks like BNZ's Tony Alexander called it correctly earlier this year - in fact he is the only commentator who has come close to getting it right ie shortage of homes available, lack of new home construction and net migration gain fully confirmed.
Looks like this was not a dead cat bounce but a full blown recovery phase that has now lasted more than 6 months and will strengthen over summer.
While the average house buyer is finding homes very affordable due to low floating rates and prices that are still relatively low compared with 2007, house prices are likely to continue to recover until at least April 2011.
Most homebuyers are taking comfort from the strong message from Allan Bollard that he will keep the OCR at 2.5% or less for at least another 12 months.
Talk of CGT, removal of LAQC etc, none of which will actually happen, has failed to scare the average house buyer/rental investor.
Who would have thought that QV would release such a positive report compared wth their report at the same time last year!
Dear Bernard - do you
Dear Bernard - do you need some exercise?? Perhaps you might consider joining Steve Keen on his 220km walk up to Mt Kosciuszko - I think he is wearing a tee shirt that proclaims , "I was hoplessly wrong about house prices"
Crazy, man. New Zealanders will
Crazy, man. New Zealanders will never learn. NZers' debt level remains at over 150% of disposable income (I see The Economist in a recent print edition puts the sustainable level at 100%), Wild Bill is going to be forced to change the rules on the landlording rorts, unemployment is still growing - & yet still we insist on ploughing $$$ into overpriced real estate. The real cause for the buoyancy I feel is low interest rates. However, you only have to look at the next item, "ASB pushes up the term deposit boundaries" to see where the future lies.
http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/keygraphs/Fig5.html
Lack of homes pushes up
Lack of homes pushes up Auckland prices
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10608145
Auckland house prices surge 6%
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/residential-property/news/article.cfm?c_id=76&...
Demand drives up house prices
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/3043222/Demand-drives-up-hous...
It's happening in Australia too
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/11/02/2730615.htm
House prices leap $6,000 a month!
http://www.theage.com.au/national/house-prices-leap-6000-a-month-2009103...
Bruce Stevenson Ha!. That walk
Bruce Stevenson
Ha!. That walk up Mt Kosciuszko would be quite nice this time of year.
cheers
Bernard
More pointless humbug.
More pointless humbug.
House prices will not fall
House prices will not fall even with higher interest rates. We now seem to have a simultaneous house price recover happening throughout the world with the exception of the majority of the USA - but they had subprime and Alt A - we didn't!
There must be many people who are now gutted that they listened to the commentators who predicted price falls of 15%, 30% and 40%.
If only they had purchased this time last year - but oh no they listened to the doomsters and are now are tens of thousands of dollars worse off for having done so.
Then there are those who sold in 2008 at a discount who have gone renting only to realise that the house they sold last year is now worth considerably more than they sold it for - ouch!
As for November 2007 month being a peak for housing - it is a certainty that one of the months betwen Nov 2009 and April 2010 will set a new record peak median price for NZ.
The Telegraph reports:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/houseprices/6493767/House-p...
BBC reports UK house price rises hit a 5 year high
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8226416.stm
Looks like the mortgage teams
Looks like the mortgage teams will be busy at the banks this summer - might have to re-employ some of those that were laid off last year!
A land of Homer Simpsons
A land of Homer Simpsons where stupidity is measured by the level of household debt and the absolute failure of govt to do anything that might threaten to restore property affordability to the level recognised as a maximum the economy can cope with. I am guessing Bollard is more concerned about keeping the bubble going than he is about the resulting mess when it implodes, as he knows dam well it will. On and on the madness went, the bubble expanding all the time. Soon the peasants began to ask, is this lack of leadership a crime!
This unexpected house price surge
This unexpected house price surge is great news for the banks - why?
Well earlier this year and most of 2008 mortgagee sales were not recovering the full amount loaned and customers ended up with an unsecured debt to the bank.
Over the last 4 months it's become more common for mortgagee sales to see the full debt recovered and a reasonable sum left over for the house owner - whew!
Banks have also helped people out with mortgage holidays where they have been struggling or if they have lost their job it gives them time to sort themselves out. This often prevents a mortgagee sale.
So yes bank managers will be very happy to see house prices recover as it helps people keep their homes and means the outcome of a mortgagee sale is not so nasty.
Actually BM, it's bad news
Actually BM, it's bad news for the banks and they know it....Bubbles must fail sooner or later and in this case it will be interest rates that puncture the fools paradise....No worries you might think for banks BM but they face serious balance sheet issues with each 1% fall in average prices. First to go will be their margins for safety. Those gaps between what they created in the way of credit and the property 'valuations'. Once gone, it's into the flesh and the ratings agencies would have to stop lying...they would have to lower the bank ratings which brings higher rates and these get passed on causing an even faster fall in property which leads to some more blood in the balance sheets and the ratings drop and the cost of credit rises and up go rates again....Do you understand these risks BM, because if you don't, it's time to change yourself to Bank Clerk junior grade and if you do understand, it brings into question your judgement.
Bernard : Kindly remind us
Bernard : Kindly remind us on which radio station , and at what time , John Key will be on . Some of the gang may relish the opportunity to grill him , with impunity .
The QV info confirms what
The QV info confirms what I had noticed in Tauranga- things got very quiet here a few weeks ago. The real estate market bounce is a main centre thing, which is what you would expect in an economy where jobs are becoming hard to find.
@ Bernard. Surely on your
@ Bernard. Surely on your poll there should be an option "Because they are very happy where they are and don't want to sell".
Maybe we have finally got out of the boom-bust cycle. It is the bust that lays the ground for a boom and the crazy speculation frenzy that goes with it. Because prices have held up, builders can start supplying the market with new stock and get reasonable margins for doing it.
Bernard could you add a
Bernard could you add a "profile" for poster so we can see which side of the fence tehir interests lie.
Interesting to took at the full country here
http://www.qv.co.nz/onlinereports/propertyvaluemap.htm
8 out of 16 regions on the slide down
one a massive 9.4%
about as stable as the bank manager company accounts?
At the coal face 4 of 6 houses viewed in the weekend were "Forced Sales"
Glenda Whitehead any relation to
Glenda Whitehead any relation to the NZ reserve bank's John Whitehead?
Hi All I can not
Hi All
I can not forsee the blood transfusion will be available forever to the economy. Especially it is the blood of our next generation.
1. Do see the skyrocketing price on quite a few auctions where soneone would like to pay 15% more than CV value which I think is already very high. I just wonder they are gamblers or smart buyers or very panic?
2. I think non- serious economist will see golden future for the property at the moment which is based on what they can see regarding all sort of economy statistics data, except economy is not true science , or a bounch of gamblers' game? It was gamblers' game if you see wall street. But they will play another game as everyone in the world knew what game they played before. dot net bubble, house bubble, house bubble again? another ten years? I think they will create new bubble, maybe new energy bubble.
3. I just wait quitely to see how the market will perform at post transfusion period as I am sure blood supply is not unlimited. Interest rate will be always low? Supply will be always short by nature(most people just sell one buy another?)? home buyers will be panic forever? Market will be always blessed in this way? If that is the case, I will never trust any economy as sort of science. Anyone can be economist as economist will not be closer to the true than normall people without any knowlege can predict.
more people than i ever
more people than i ever imagined in rather classy wagons attended the first open home for the house next door thats only just hit the market - that's my research for the week, i think there will be a sticker on the sign within 10 days - will keep you posted, if interested.
they are one of the 6 D's so don't know if that means it doesn't count, or thats all that is in the market anyway....
BM, The artice say we
BM,
The artice say we are still 7.5% below peak?? And this at a time of ridiculously low interest rates. If you think rates rising again is not going to affect the market then you really do have blinkers on.
Dead cat bounce is the only word for it. Banks are comfortable lending because we now guarantee the entities that created the mess in the first place. Consider the combination of
- higher intrest rates
- stagnating rents
- unemployment (still rising)
- tax changes (this now appears to be a case of when not if)
- removal of govt guarantees
Best case scenario iis flat for the next 5 years. Wotst case is 60% falls. Anywhere between there is also plausible. What we can be certain of is there is not going to be another boom in the next decade. Booms need the previous bubble to end before that.
Are we talking "house prices"
Are we talking "house prices" or land values here? If we have a land tax we can all benefit from this tumultuous eruption of value from below.
Perhaps time to invite Hugh
Perhaps time to invite Hugh Paveltich to weigh in with a few august words aboot Supply and Demand. 'Cos my observation of a few acquaintances in t'building trade is that they are still working four-day weeks. Supply down, constant demand, higher prices. A reasonable assumption?
What hope is there for
What hope is there for the honest, hard working citizens of this country when our Fool of a Prime Minister goes on Breakfast TV and promotes inflation in house prices as the solution to the problem of leaky houses. Inflation is the theft of the value of todays work and effort, and its replacement with the nominal "value" of the paper 'profits' of tomorrow. Why bother to be productive, New Zealand, when the Fool at the Top sees the solution to our problems as a "sit back and wait for inflation to do it's work" to provide you with free money.
Hi All, The key words
Hi All, The key words are "we are still 7.5% below the peak". So there is no booming.
Hi Harriet I read same
Hi Harriet I read same comment in Sydney Morning Herald" a year and half back. But today, the Australia is may be the only western country did get into recession. You should mail Kevin Rudd and tell him the stupid thing he did to all Ausies. Support you.
Bruce, BH is not the
Bruce, BH is not the only person on his nice 220km walk, we should ask Kieran Trass to go with him.
Sorry for saying that and very very sorry for all followers.
Oh Harriet, I saw that
Oh Harriet, I saw that too and just shook my head in dismay. For someone who worked in the financial sector for so long JK really does have a very rudimentary grasp of economics.
Note: "Immigration contributes significantly to
Note : "Immigration contributes significantly to every New Zealander's per capita income, new research shows."
The Department of Labour's International Migration Settlement and Employment Dynamics research showed that "without immigration, the outlook is bleak", Immigration Minister Jonathan Coleman said.
http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/research-backs-contribution-immigrants-1143...
But equally, jh, from the
But equally, jh, from the same report you captioned:
"Without current levels of immigrants moving to New Zealand, the population would drop by 9.6 percent and gross domestic profit (GDP) by 11.3 percent by 2021."
So what we are saying is that New Zealand, left to it's own devices, is stuffed. As New Zealanders, we can't even support our own country and need
the assistance of others, and their savings and education, to keep the leaky waka afloat. What a talented and progressive country we have turned out to be.But, hey, not too worry, inflatiuon will push up house prices so we can sell them for more to the immigrants. Let's not worry that 'our' people won't be able to afford one.
No wonder 9.6% of the population of the present population is headed overseas before 2021.
And that we have the
And that we have the highest emigration stats in the OECD.....
I harped on about this on another thread last week. I have nothing against the immigrants themselves, they're only pursuing what they hope to be a better life for themselves (exactly what the Kiwis that leave our shores are doing) - but why can't the underlying issue be addressed first, before we open the floodgates to immigrants? Why don't Kiwis breed sufficiently to increase the population naturally, and why do so many want to flee this place as soon as they're able to?
BM thanks for reading all
BM thanks for reading all the beadlines and coming back with the media summary of the QV report
"Lack of homes pushes up Auckland prices
Auckland house prices surge 6%
Demand drives up house prices
It's happening in Australia too
House prices leap $6,000 a month!"
Explain how none of the media headlined the biggest news "Queenstown drops a massive 9.4%". Could it be their vested interest lie in brick and mortar below the senior editors bum and everyone else in the office.
Maybe pumping every bit of good news they can find in a dark cloud, while beating up on the farmers.
Queenstown is a snapshot of
Queenstown is a snapshot of New Zealand, Revs. The ultimate boom and bust location.
Because Veedub.... that's the Kiwi
Because Veedub.... that's the Kiwi way. Rape the country for taxfree gains in the bubbles and shift the loot out before triggering the bust. Then when the shite has hit....bring the loot back and make a second killing...taxfree again. You can play this game endlessly because all the pollies are at it. Let the stupid peasants carry the can. Keep them locked into a benefit bullshit scam and use your media mates to pork the next immigration wave. Count on the peasants believing it's good for them and be invested before the bubble begins. Then when the always late to the party RBNZ starts to raise the ocr, you know it's time to sell up and move that loot out again.
is it just me or
is it just me or is the bank manager a tosser, or maybe his is the typical attitude of the bankers that created this whole finnicial mess. I still wait with interest how this house rally goes, i like to take a longer term view than a couple of months
I have a great deal
I have a great deal of difficulty understanding who is supposed to provide the cash for this supposed next housing boom. NZ's 100%+ of GDP in the private sector, the government is looking for $40bn. If there is no money to fund from offshore how can the asset price go up. There are more attractive places for the Australiasian banks to risk their capital than in NZ.
jeez, Wally...have you been taking
jeez, Wally...have you been taking your yippee beans this morning?
you're in full flight ,mate.....heey, what's that under your bed ?
I am thinking now... 1)
I am thinking now...
1) Why doulders don't build more if there is a housing shortage?
Because they cannot make any profits. Example is a brand new 4 bedder in Blockhouse Bay sold for 658K on Saturday's auction.The agent told me the developer didn't make any profits because the section costed 270k, building costed 310k, please bank interet etc.., plus 9 month hard work.
2) Why douse owners don't put their houses on the market for sale?
Because thy cannot get the money(what they paid for) back. Say the houses price is 7.5%% lower then 2007 peak, sale costs 4.5% of sale price(agent commission, advistising, etc), plus tiding up costs 5% of sale price(Paint, garden, kitchen, barthroom, etc). All add up, the sellers will only get 83% what they paid for if they purchased 2006 or 2007.
All these make sense?
Joe Blog, " But today,
Joe Blog,
" But today, the Australia is may be the only western country did get into recession. You should mail Kevin Rudd and tell him the stupid thing he did to all Ausies."
K Rudd is incredibly stupid. He has sold out the Aussie way of life to bankers, developers and foreigners to make his gdp figures look great - HOORAY just avoided a contraction in teh last quarter. Well what do you expect when taxpayers money is plowed into speculative activity and first home buyers debt rose 12% over the last year. So the answer to a problem caused by too much debt is to take on more private AND govt debt, spend it now, and then the nasty recession will go away. And when the locals cant afford it import immigrants and loosen the foreign investement rules.
Aus now has the msot unaffordable ppty in the world. THANK YOU K RUDD. If the average household's purcashing power on a ppty has now drastrically reduced over the last 2 quarters, does that not effectively mean a recession for the average FHB household AND for the next 30 years unless something is done????
@ Joe Blog - your
@ Joe Blog - your 2nd reason as to why people aren't putting their homes on the market needs further thought. Unless the owner is selling to relocate overseas, or because they're in financial poop and will be going renting or moving in with family/frends, they usually sell to upsize/downsize and that means they're buying back into the same market and so logic says that if their property is worth 17% less, so will the vendor they're buying from (give or take). I mean, it's highly unlikely (though I guess not impossible) that house X has dropped 17% in value but house Y across the street/suburb etc hasn't. And if they wait to sell till their house has recovered that 17% decrease in value, won't then the houses they look at to buy be in the same boat? You'd have to be pretty thick to think that just because your own house had increased in value that all other houses you look at to buy haven't.......
@Veedub--Your thought was definitly correct,
@Veedub--Your thought was definitly correct, but that is not what a normal Mun and Dad thinking. The average Joe will only calculate how much they paid for the house and how much they can get after deducting all the costs. A man I know is selling his house now and he's bottom line is to get 410k after all the cost that is what he paid 3 years back.
For you all labour supporters
For you all labour supporters in this forum, Labour did have an opportunity awhile back after the first tax reform report to introduce CGT - they did nothing. Why, because majority of politicians have rental investments in one form or another - so it's obvious that they won't be keen to introduce some kinds of tax that would hurt them. I guess if you can bet them - join them. c'mon get yourself a rental and enjoy the tax free returns while it lasts
Good point gingerman Noses in
Good point gingerman
Noses in the trough, all renting to each other and claiming the expenses!
How can Bill English seriously talk abiut CGT, he's the worse of the lot!
The Bank Manager is right
The Bank Manager is right in that Tony Alexander was one of the only commentators to call it correctly, all mainly due to housing shortages, immigration, and an "economic recovery" of sorts. It's remarkable that the story and the root causes are almost identical to what you will hear in Australia. Perhaps we need to fact up to a new truth: Both countries are unlike any other developed nation on this planet and we are establishing a commodity-based super economy in the South Pacific that is attracting unrestricted capital inflows and is fending off private/public debt like they were 30 kg weaklings. Maybe this is the natural course of our superior cultures and natural advantages (particularly in the case of Australia). and maybe we need to focus more on our greatness instead of undermining our success relative to the rest of the world.
Joe Blog - good point.
Joe Blog - good point.
thats why planning rules need to change AND more use needs to be made of prefab housing.
If you could subdivide down to 300 square metre sites (instead of 400 or 500) in middling to good suburbs in akld you would be talking section prices of 250K, a nicely designed 3 bed prefab could cost around 120K. total is 370K, add some profit margin say sold for 450K - not bad profit and a good price for a home buyer
I'm with ya J.C. Re
I'm with ya J.C.
Re the pollies - Same trough - different pigs - that's Parliament eh!
Matt in Auck What about
Matt in Auck
What about agents fees, legal fees, GST and interest holding cost on the project?
You also seem to have forgotten fences, paths, driveway and parking for 2 cars off street, letterbox, clothesline, connecting services etc, etc. It ain't cheap to build.
This http://www.a1homes.co.nz/sites/default/files/pdf/A1_VH_104.pdf costs $55,536 in kit form.
How much would you estimate it would cost to build this:
Very low budget basic spec
100m2 square box
Hardiplank or similar exterior
Plastic gutters
Iron roof
Alloy joinery
Basic formica kitchen
Laundry in hallway cupboard
Single wardrobe in each bedroom
Open plan living/kitchen/dining
Timber pile foundation and particle board floor
Shower over bath
Separate loo
Carpeted with vinyl in service areas.
Painted gib walls
Next question - plonk it on a 400m2 site in Res 6a zone and would anyone actually buy it?
Would you pay $450k for it?
Hey Matt in AK, Good
Hey Matt in AK,
Good point too. Here in Japan it's very very common to see section sizes of 120-150 Sq metres and they have enough space for a 2 or 3 story house and a car park and small garden. Plenty of parks around, who needs a great big garden.
We are talking affordable housing arn't we or are we talking more about affordable gardens and affordable lawn?
RogerRamjet - I lived in
RogerRamjet - I lived in Japan ten years ago and you are absolutely right. In fact my Sister in law built a very tidy 3 storey, 3 bed room townhouse on a site around 120 square metres in central Nagoya. Doesn't have any section but has a decent deck and decent separation from neighbours and a single carport. All it takes is some clever design and you can do good things on such small sections. As you say with plenty of parks around who needs a big garden
My wife's family in Japan live in a detached house on about 250 square metres. As a double storey 3 bed house it allows a reasonable little front garden
I tell you reforming planning contorls is essential to addressing this housing cost issue.
The other thing I like about Japan's planning laws is that they are quite permissive of things lilke small shops, home businesses, cafes etc in residential areas. It adds more interest to such areas and is very handy. But you'd never get that sort of thing happening in NZ, the NIMBY capital of the world.
Where are you based in Japan RogerRamjet?
Housing prices rising, not much
Housing prices rising, not much listings? Well, take a look at Housing Stress Index by BH. It does tell alot.
http://www.interest.co.nz/ratesblog/index.php/2009/11/09/housing-report-...
RogerRamjet - most kiwis haven't
RogerRamjet - most kiwis haven't faced up to the fact yet that its simply not economic to yearn for huge houses on large sites anymore. There should be an anti NIMBY law passed, and boomers who are usually the biggest Nimbyists need to look beyond their selfishness and understand that unless changes are made they won't see their grandchildren grow up in this country
I'm sounding like Bernard now
JC, A little while ago
JC,
A little while ago you would never have considered there was such a thing as a national market, let alone gobal market. There is no reason why NZ should go in tandem with the US OR Aus. What you can be sure of is that our bubble is bigger than the US ever was, and our houses are now roughly twice as expensive relative to incomes. Can anyone seriously think in their wildest dreams that this divergence is justified?????????? We willl all end up in the same position, whether its the quick route or the long route. fundamentals ALWAYS catch up.
This country can’t survive one
This country can't survive one day without immigration, thats the sad fact and the govt. knows that very well.
There is going to be more immigrants than we can ever imagine arriving in this country. Many kiwis don't realise how lucky they are, kept on complaining about house prices, immigrations ..etc. Many people love ripping the country off and flee off overseas because they think New Zealand is a sh*thole.
If you are attempting to
If you are attempting to buy residential property for the first time especially in a foreign land you can be quite intimidated. Tickrin.com real estate search engine helping you like to buy residential property.
Buy Residential Property : You
Buy Residential Property : You are a fool and a liar . No one in their right mind should deal with low-life creeps like you . Piss off !
Small Kev, If we all
Small Kev, If we all stay in the NZ, we can survive without immigrations. The question is how can we keep the popele in shore.
Another lovely day in Noddyland.
Another lovely day in Noddyland. Roger's a bit cheesed off with somebody.
I think Roger was cheesed
I think Roger was cheesed off by a spam comment. Either that or he doesn't like residential property ;)
Both , Wally ! Love
Both , Wally ! Love to end the day with a 4 a.m. rant .
Maybe John Key should invite
Maybe John Key should invite Singapore's PM Lee Kuan Yew over for a chat and learn something about turning NZ's economy around.
Hi Matt, I'm in Yokohama,
Hi Matt,
I'm in Yokohama, been here about 3 yrs now. I love it.
Alex : No problem if
Alex : No problem if you delete my " irate spat " when you zap the spammers . ( don't wanna look like I'm a wally ......... ah ..., more of a wally than usual ) Permission granted to zap the housing bubble , whilst you're at it .
Is new listings up or
Is new listings up or down? Bernard's latest report shows in this link;
http://www.interest.co.nz/ratesblog/index.php/2009/11/10/housing-report-...