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Opinion: What to do about unemployment
By Neville Bennett
Unemployment, the principal consequence of recessions, is constricting many economies, not least the USA with a rate of 9.4% and rising. The global rate appears to be about 7.1% and is heading towards 210 to 240 million people. Global employment has been growing since 1991, so 2009 represents the worst global performance on record.
The International Labor Organization last updated its commentary in May, and was expecting the worst, although: "The unprecedented speed, depth and broad reach of the global economic crisis and the real prospect of an extended global recession "“ perhaps even depression "“ has prompted a massive global policy response". Most developed countries have adopted a two-pronged approach: targeting demand through fiscal stimulus and low interest rates, and repairing the financial sector's balance sheets. About US$2 trillion has been spent to create and maintain jobs.
The current crisis marks a cleavage in the historical unemployment series, and causing problems in predicting the growing carnage. Moreover, the crisis is detrimental for women as they are often in export-oriented production. Youth were, at the global level, 2.8 times as likely to be unemployed as adults, which the crisis has exacerbated.
The ILO represents the crisis as "an unparalleled global economic challenge".
I agree: unfortunately, there are no magic formulas, no shortcuts and probably no one-size-fits-all model for development.
Economic theory
Unemployment was a big interest for economists of my generation. Our fathers had suffered massively from it, and it figured largely in the syllabus. We looked at different cases of unemployment, like "frictional unemployment" : people taking time out from work or looking for a different job; and structural unemployment: a mismatch of vacancies and supply (which often requires workers to move homes).
Related Topics
There was the classical theory where unemployment resulted from excessive wages, and Keynsian theory of unemployment resulting from too little demand in the economy, requiring stimulus.
Seminal work on the labour market in the early 1990's established a conventional wisdom that recessions are mainly driven by high job rate losses. Although economists argue about it, most people would agree that recessions start out with a wave of "separations" and changes in the job-finding rate. It is currently believed that in the US the job-finding rate accounts for two-thirds of unemployment volatility.
New work
I read Pedro Gomes's (LSE) Bank of England Working Paper (Labour market flows: fact from the UK) with growing fascination. The language is rather technical, but he did an analysis of flows between employment, unemployment and inactivity for 1996 to 2007. In each quarter, 7% change status and 2% change their employer.
It is a colossal undertaking: nearly one million people move into new jobs every three months! A large number shift jobs every month. Moreover, the workforce grows by a net 60,000 a quarter. These flows are important for understanding markets.
In every quarter, 7% of employees look for a new job. The interaction between employment and inactivity has become cyclic. In booms, fewer people look for a different job but they are more likely to change employer to a similar job. Fewer people get fired in booms. Most unemployment is involuntary.
Education is decisive. The less-educated are three times more likely to be unemployed or in inactivity than those with higher education. The less-educated are twice as likely to be fired and have half the job-finding rate of success. The highly educated are a fast-growing proportion of the workforce and have the highest rate of participation.
About a quarter of the workforce is in the public sector, which, unlike the private sector, is countercyclical. Jobs seem more secure as the separation level is half that of the private sector. Yet it is somewhat surprising that the unemployed and inactive are six times more likely to get a job in the private sector than the public one; and during booms, fewer employees look for a different job.
Job creation
The ILO hosts an excellent study by Alejandro Foxley, former foreign and finance minister of Chile. Foxley argues persuasively that reforming labour markets is the key to creating high paying jobs necessary for restarting economic growth.
I am always suspicious of "labour reform" when it is code for wage reduction. But Foxley is not politically contentious because he advocates higher-paid work, better standards of living, and more effective government.
Foxley appeals to me because of his questioning outlook. For example, he challenges export-driven economic development. He points out that Latin America did better than Asia in the crisis. Asia has placed excessive emphasis on external demand at the expense of domestic consumption. The IMF has also argued Asia should spend more on infrastructure, public health and housing, education and job-training. It could produce more balanced growth with fewer saving imbalances.
Foxley also examines consequences for commodity exporters like Chile [and New Zealand]. Chile still sends 85% of its exports to traditional markets and it sends only 10% of exports to countries with which it has negotiated Free Trade arrangements. East Asia has been more active in adding value, and investing in R&D, information technologies and infrastructure. Greater diversification leads to higher growth and few shocks.
Nevertheless, the key component of any post-crisis agenda should be job-creation and upgrading skills. The crisis has opened a door for reform. Many labour markets discriminate against two groups: women and youth. For example, in the US and UK 56-59% of women participate in the workforce but it is 49% in East Europe and 52% in East Asia and Latin America. Youth participation is 66% in the UK, but 30% in East Europe, 45% in East Asia and 49% in Latin America. Many middle-income countries limit their growth potential by excluding so many women and youth.
Reforms
Advanced countries like Denmark and Austria have reduced the cost of hiring and firing, and improved unemployment insurance, thereby increasing flexibility. Youth and women's participation can be increased by day-care and pre-school facilities and job-training. All countries can improve existing workforce skills. Economic growth takes time and persistence to achieve, and labour reform is central to it.
____________
* Neville Bennett was a long-time Senior Lecturer in History at the University of Canterbury, where he taught since 1971. His focus is economic history and markets. He is also a columnist for the NBR where a version of this item first appeared.
2 Comments
One thing you can count
One thing you can count on Neville, the numbers have been cooked, massaged, blended and 'fudged' before coming out the sausage machine for the peasants to ponder.
1) Developing especially niche markets/
1) Developing especially niche markets/ products and making us less depended from other countries.
2) With the support of government/ private sector there is potential for NZ setting up and improve industries : http://www.henderson.com/sites/henderson/sri/approach/topdowntheme/overv...
But first of all with the support of government/ private sector/ media developing a decent culture and spirit of life of the public - away from a purely consumption culture.
What I can't understand is
What I can't understand is if NZ has a reported 6% unemployment rate and it is agreed that this will rise, why is immigration now increasing?
What to do about unemployment?
What to do about unemployment?
No matter what it is collateral damage after a rescission or fiscal turmoil, as markets realign themselves...There has never been or never will be a soln to stopping it.
Accepting that a different approach should be taken...and it a hard call..like general having to right of troops in a battle Field.
If measures are taken , too early, in a panic..a lot of money will be wasted that would be better served later on.
Up skilling is not a soln..
A country can only support a given number of graduates in any feild... maybe thats why a lot had left the country in previous yrs??
Is this why in India, help desk workers have degrees?
When unemployment increases this hit skilled, educated work force also, IT managers highly experienced and qualified take on jobs well below their expectations...A drainage engineer becomes a digger driver... this in effect up skills our labour force, rather than sending the digger driver to uni.
We are still pilling out graduates from our uni s..they cant compete with experienced unemployed mangers on diggers...and cant go off shore because the same unemployment exists there.
When things start to stabilizes, the Drainage engineer on the digger now gets promoted to site manager and so on up again.
In the mean time the digger driver has been unemployed...the question remains what do we do with this lower skilled/unskilled part of unemployment stats. when there are no jobs?...Flip burgers part time?...oh thats where the unskilled school leavers go, what do we do with them?
The only soln in previous big recessions (1880s 1930s) is send them off to the colonies, have a few wars, or one big world war...the trouble with this is a world war is not likely and there are no more colonies.
I dont think looking back to history, or philosophies this time is going to give an answer, but rather show that we cant use them in the 21 ist century.
Maybe we need a whole new approach??
Reduce things like health budgets...tax processed foods, un tax fresh foods, increase demand and production and employment in these fields.
I dont have the answers, all I do know is we cant stop unemployment, maybe reduce it slightly, and what has happened worked and not worked in the past will not work this time.
Eventually one of 2 things will happen at the end, we have, like India a huge poverty unemployed sector remaining, and an over educated work force, or (less likely, things will return to a 3 to 5% unemployment level either way, with a huge social collateral damage (Depression) in the mean time.
shuttle Says:
"What I can't understand is if NZ has a reported 6% unemployment rate and it is agreed that this will rise, why is immigration now increasing?
"
Because our unemployment is less else where, unlikely to reach as high as already or predicted in may other countries....we are still an attractive target.
It's vested interests Shuttle. Try
It's vested interests Shuttle. Try telling the building sector bosses immigration numbers are too high. The screaming will drown out a jet engine at full tit. Then we have all the immigration consultants who clip the tickets as the migrants pass on in. Half the govt believe wealth arrives in a jet and the other half invest in it. It's the Noo Zeeland disease and will never stop. So you either find a quiet corner to hide from the expanding flab of humans or leave. Plenty of isolated spots on Stewart Island. Buy a boat and chug off down to Fiordland. The Blue Cod are monsters down there and one cray feeds five. Plenty of fresh water.
and mortgagee sales are at
and mortgagee sales are at a record....
http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/2815354/Mortgagee-sales-hit-fresh-high
Wally: They can usually fix the monthly number eg Clinton did it...only those actually looking for work are counted as un-emplyed....so the real US unemplyed could be closer to 12~16% and not9%+.....
Here they could do the same but the thing to watch (in most things actually) is the trends....they can hide /fiddle totals, but they cant hide trends as easily..But a piece I picked up on the other day was taking the norm of seasonally adjustment of the numbers out and then reporting the USA house sales were stable/up...its fudging...but trends should pick that out...I find it amazing the lengths some reporters/Pollies/economsists will go to to make the numbers tell what they want to say....
W.Kunz: totally agree, made in NZ is seen as a quality item, that means a high margin can be sustained on that product. We cant complete on mass made shoddy cheap crap, any NZ business trying to do that and relying on dumping the minimum wage is plain stupid IMHO. We dont need to complete on producing high quality items that command a price premium, our wool made into high quality garments seems to be a case in point, dont sell the wool, value add and sell a superior end product....Warehouse $20~$30 for a cheap acrylic jumper V $80+ for a real wool made in NZ item....NZ is small enough to be boutique and agile...pity so many of our businesses arnt.
I think we do need
I think we do need to look at skill improvements, however there is always going to be ppl too thick to be trainable to the standard needed. Indeed that standard is always going to be rising IMHO. The biggest problem is our short term attitude (to everything) and pushing the cost of tertiary education onto youth seems counter-productive.....We socilaise medicene and that means it absorbs a low % of GDP....maybe we should re-visit tertiary education.....
regards
It must be remembered that
It must be remembered that since the new statistical methodology imposed upon us with our liquidation and refinancing terms of 1984 to be deemed employed you only have to have worked for 1 hour of paid employment in a week of survey as opposed to the old 30 hours. If you take into account those that are deemed to be employed, sometimes in more than one job, but still cant earn enough to live with dignity, even though their work ethic is unquestionable, it is noted by many that the number of underemployed, those seeking more work to live with dignity, is more relevant in terms of decreasing community stability than those deemed unemployed under the current methodology, and that number is much larger than the unemployment figure.
The privately debt based monetary system still adheres to the slaveminded ideology that if a commoner does not work as many hours as they are physically able they are not etitled to exist with dignity or at all. If they dont work or have not saved enough before they can no longer, the law of the jungle should apply. In the eyes of the slaveminded there are no contingency plans for when modern technology could allow much more leisure time for all. The slaveminded say "but how will the slaves afford to borrow our created credit or buy our products if they are not working for as many hours as we can get out of them". They cant even comprehend, provided sustainable physical and human resources are taken into account, a national dividend could be issued to make up the gap between purchasing power and available production. Population levels would have to also be carefully monitored if the human species is not to suffer the same fate as the rabbit or red perch communities when left to breed until they exceed the available resources to feed their exploding populations until regulated by natures famine. I say we have had the ability to reason and record for 10,000 odd years now, surely we can do better than mindless animals without the ability of reason.
The human community under civilised leadership has the potential to be both sustainable and stable.
I like this quote of Ghandi I came across "Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's need, but not every man's greed"
or this from John F Kennedy in a 1963 speech to the UN:
"The contest will continue--the contest between those who see a monolithic world and those who believe in diversity--but it should be a contest in leadership and responsibility instead of destruction, a contest in achievement instead of intimidation. Speaking for the United States of America, I welcome such a contest. For we believe that truth is stronger than error--and that freedom is more enduring than coercion. And in the contest for a better life, all the world can be a winner.
The effort to improve the conditions of man, however, is not a task for the few. It is the task of all nations--acting alone, acting in groups, acting in the United Nations, for plague and pestilence, and plunder and pollution, the hazards of nature, and the hunger of children are the foes of every nation. The earth, the sea, and the air are the concern of every nation. And science, technology, and education can be the ally of every nation.
Never before has man had such capacity to control his own environment, to end thirst and hunger, to conquer poverty and disease, to banish illiteracy and massive human misery. We have the power to make this the best generation of mankind in the history of the world--or to make it the last."
..and then there are the
..and then there are the ones who say coal- mining reduces unemployment and increases productivity - HA!
Look it him - short term thinking is big - well politicians !
and Walter, remember when they
and Walter, remember when they used to build apliances out of quality components that would last twenty years, but all that had to change, they build appliances out of crap to make them last on average three years, all to feed the perpetual growth model they claim will provide on going stability. They couldnt allow the commoners the freedom of a subsidised rest period that would allow them the reward of the fruits of their labour, no we have to have a system that keeps them at heel by chewing through the worlds resources at an unsustainable rate under the guise of providing continuous employment for the commoners lest there will be no need for them.
"He points out that Latin
"He points out that Latin America did better than Asia in the crisis."
Isnt this a Q of balance? Asia is highly geared/imbalanced to exporting....SAmerica, closer to a balance....as we find here, with a large imbalance to imports it hurts....ie when you look at the case I have to wonder if the degree of imbalance is so great that you cant really take good/firm conclusions from it....
Iain Parker: They over-engineered components...because they couldnt build / design properly...so the "safety factor" was too large....yes some bits would last for-ever...so you could be throwing out 3/4 the machine after 20 years that was still in good order....thats a waste as well....also as the goods is heavier they generally consume more power because of that, and would be significantly more expensive.....so there is a TOC (total cost of ownership) sweet spot....this means new cost+running cost of its life....this is what should be the lowest...not first cost.
I am willing to tell
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<i>... the unemployed and inactive
... the unemployed and inactive are six times more likely to get a job in the private sector than the public one..
This is key. In previous times of nation-building - the public sector was the main player in the creation of labour market opportunities for the unskilled - it was the training ground for many in broadcasting, engineering, telecommunications etc etc..
It seems ridiculous, the government talking about work-for-the-dole, unless of course it creates the jobs within it's own industry.