Bernard, the link to the chart is not working..

Another strong number for the latest week, doesn't look like it can be written off as a seasonal pattern either.

I'm increasingly convinced that the bounce in approvals in March, and in December last year, were inflated by people switching banks, which the RBNZ data still counts as new approvals. Compare the value of approvals with the value of sales based on the REINZ data - those two months don't line up. The general pickup in the last few months, however, is genuine.

Aargh- Bernard- I'm not sure what planet you are residing on but your conclusions are wrong as usual unfortunately. Stop publishing this garbage!! The mortgage approval figures for the week 14th August 2009 are the strongest mid-August figures for a few years - actually it is only 2006 that had a much higher number and 2005 was similiar and all the other years were lower. http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/statistics/monfin/c16/hc16.xls

2004-5632
2005-7339
2006-8751
2007-6659
2008-6299
2009-7231

I am currently helping a relative buy a house. I haven't experienced buying a house with this level of other buyer competition since the height of the boom. It is a very discouraging experience.

well done Bewildered....now we see a bigger picture..

But I think what B.H. trying to say was different to what you interpreted

Lara - what the government is seeking to do is to reflate the housing market at the behest of its 'banker masters'. It knows that by increasing the Welcome Home Loan Scheme fuel is effectively being added to the fire - and deeper levels of debt money servitude to the banks (particularly for our younger people) will be delivered. Of course, in executing the above government wants its 'cut', its 'tribute'. GST and other imposts do nicely but the pièce de résistance comes, when having cynically worked to re-inflate the market, you find yourself with a nice excuse to impose a CGT. The beauty of CGT, under a fiat money system, is that it allows you to levy a lien on current - if depreciating real income - on the basis of a windfall that is preponderantly just a nominal illusion of gain. It is vital that people get their heads round this because, much as a despise this ridiculous obsession with houses and the alleged riches therefrom, CGT is a fraud.

If messrs Key and English et al really wanted to help our young people, instead of reducing them to mortgage penury you know what they would do? PRECISELY NOTHING! That is what they would do - allowing a de-leverage of housing - with good old Mr Market deciding as to what derisory level much of the junk for sale should be reduced to.

CCB- I am not sure just what Bernard is trying to say here- I don't have broadband so I didn't watch his video but his headline is bizarre. We are in August- there is no point in comparing March with August- you can only compare seasonal figures. He has completely missed the real news story here is the big leap in mortgage approval levels in the last couple of weeks - we are back to levels last seen when real estate was booming and we are most definitely in a boom.

How bad things are out there for buyers is only apparent if you actually try to buy a house. My relative has been caught up in two multi-offer situations this week and lost out in both of them . Incidentally she lost out both times to property investors.

Lara- that link seems to go to an old story from a few years ago??

@ Bewildered

Yes even when watching the video you have to scratch your head to work out what Bernard is actually trying to say so heres my take:

1. Big, big spike in Mar-2009 in mortgage approvals. Bernard says it was people coming off mortgages and fixing. I think it was normal seasonal thing exaggerated by people deciding to fix because the rates were so low - not necessarily b/c they just came off a fixed mortgage. Interesting approvals were abnormally low in Feb-09 when you look at it seasonally hence why I think people were more on floating watching and waiting rather than coming straight off fixed mortgages and jumping into the next one.

2. I think Bernard seems to be saying we should have seen a spike in Jul/Aug-09 in mortgage approvals to in some way account for the banks lifting medium and long term fixed rates(??) in Aug-09. Don't know where he might have got that expectation from but thats what I infer from the presentation. Personally I think the reason it isn't the cause for the banks lifting rates is b/c they are ripping us off slowly and surely by implementing increases purely b/c they can. They want people to panic and lock in to fixed rates now so the banks get a regular cash flow b/c the cynic in me says they are doing it to scare people into fixing now b/c they know this mess is not over yet.

3. Agree with you that the stats tell no lies and we are definitely up in mortgage approvals in Aug-09 from Aug-07 and 08 so the market is warming. The market was hottest btwn Oct-05 and Oct-07. Discounting the Xmas breaks in that period, the current Aug-09 mortgage approval rate is still below the lowest point in that Oct-05 and Oct-07 period (although not by much) so I don't think it is screaming hot!

Average value of approvals Aug2009 year = $836.6
Average value of approvals Aug2007 year = $1165.2
28.2% drop from 2007 levels
when comparing average year on year figures the number of people changing banks would be about the same each year so doesen't matter for comparison purposes.

I could be wrong but I think c16 data only shows new mortgage approvals not changes or top ups on existing mortages

Another 7027 mortgage approvals in the week to 21 August - real estate agents must be busy!