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Opinion: Has the media talked us into recession?

Posted in News

By Infometrics economist Gareth Kiernan

I've been asked a number of times recently to what extent the media is "responsible" for the recession currently gripping the New Zealand economy and the rest of the globe.

Since the start of 2008, we have been regaled with a progression of economic disaster stories, with themes ranging from drought to widespread job losses, from housing market collapse to soaring fuel and food prices, from sub-prime meltdown to General Motors bankruptcy. Bad news sells best, but have households been unduly browbeaten by the endless column-inches of pessimism?

Household spending contracted 0.7% over the 2008 calendar year, despite continued growth in aggregate incomes. In other words, household savings rates were improving. In part, that lift in savings represents a structural shift in behaviour that had to occur following the debt-fuelled spending over much of this decade "“ consumer spending grew at an unsustainable 4.6%pa between 2002 and 2007. But some of the improvement is precautionary behaviour as people prepare for the worst.

Quantifying the media's impact on confidence and spending decisions is not a simple task. Taking a hermit who never reads the paper or watches the news would not be a suitable control, because they would arguably be under-informed and their decision-making would be worse because of it. Such a person would be oblivious to any risk of losing their job, and would only modify their spending behaviour once they had become unemployed. This response is clearly less satisfactory than undertaking some precautionary savings before being made redundant so that you have some money to help tide you over while you look for a new job.

In other words, it is rational for people to change their spending behaviour in response to changes both in their actual financial situation and the perceived risks to their finances. Wanting to be prepared for the worst (or being risk averse) may mean that, on average, people make too much allowance for negative outcomes such as redundancy. But accurately assessing those risks is where the difficulty lies.

The culpability of the media (if that is the right word) should be limited to instances of misrepresenting the facts, scaremongering, or, most likely, endless repetition of the same story wearing down people's optimistic resistance. When you've read dozens of articles about significant layoffs you naturally start to feel less secure in your job, and when you hear forecasters talking about the unemployment rate potentially reaching double digits, worries about how you'll personally be affected can escalate.

The latter point is where economists and other analysts come in. Reporting what has happened is one thing; speculating on how bad things might get is another kettle of fish. My day job is to provide businesses with information that is useful in making their strategic decisions, and to be as accurate as possible in those predictions. Highlighting risks (both upside and downside) is an important component of forecasting, but is secondary to the core forecast of how economic events are most likely to unfold.

But when grabbing the attention of the media or making sound-bite appearances on the TV news, the more sensational, the better. Even when a reporter is presented with a broad economic forecast, it will be the most extreme and alarming parts of the outlook that will hit the headlines. And then there are some commentators that specialise in highlighting outrageous scenarios, on the basis that you'll probably forget their prognostications if they don't happen "“ but you'll sure remember if they come true!

In an age of mass media, many people approach news reports with a decent dose of scepticism. And personal experience has shown me that often economists are viewed even less charitably "“ some people put the respectability of economic forecasting somewhere between reading tea leaves and weather forecasting.

But remember that letting your own prejudices get in the way can be just as unhealthy as blindly believing any news you read or hear. Sticking your head in the sand is as detrimental as being blown about by the latest shift in opinions. In making decisions and planning for the future we should ensure that we're making the best use of the information that's available today.

In assessing the media's role in the downturn, it's worth remembering that there are very real factors that have led to the recession. Perhaps no more than half a percentage point of the contraction in GDP that has occurred so far can be put down to overly cautious behaviour by households. Some of that caution can be tied back to talk of 30% falls in house prices or unemployment hitting 11% (both of which seem unlikely to occur).

As uncertainty and fear start to dissipate, the stage will be set for a rebound in economic activity as for most people, the worst has been avoided. We may not be at that point quite yet, but the tea leaves have steadily looked more positive over the last three months.

________________

* Infometrics is an economic information and forecasting company based in Wellington. To find out more, see its website here. This piece first appeared in the Dominion Post on June 6, 2009.

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment in the box on the right or click on the "'Register" link at the bottom of the comments. Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making these comments.

When John Campbell did an

When John Campbell did an item on peak oil someone on Kiwiblog commented that his producer ought to be sent a letter.

Gareth Morgan of your very

Gareth Morgan of your very own outfit has certainly provided plenty of ultra negative fodder for the media to perpetuate the very thing you are complaining about!

These were absloute crackers:

http://www.gmk.co.nz/Pages/News.aspx?NID=20

http://www.gmk.co.nz/Pages/News.aspx?NID=20

Media always has an impact

Media always has an impact - media and its audience create a snowball effect, feeding off each other.

But the audience isn't all, collectively, interpreting things the same way.

At a general glance - media hyped up the boom for years (numerous renovation reality TV shows) that showed how the average Joe can make a million by buying the cheapest property in the swankiest neighbou........

Now the media is pulling it all down again.

People always blame the media for being overly negative they never blame the media for over hyping the value of their asset.

It's the same diff bro

This was a good one

This was a good one "Mike Hosking asks Gareth are we in the crapper?" http://www.gmk.co.nz/webfiles/Audio/20081120_newstalkzb.mp3

But he would love to look after investing your Kiwi Saver money!

...hmmmmmmmmm (edited version - sorry)

...hmmmmmmmmm (edited version - sorry)

So Gareth K you should

So Gareth K you should put a muzzle on Gareth M immediately

The Media certainly influence mass

The Media certainly influence mass behaviour, but we can't really condemn the Media purely for that. We live in an information age - there is masses of data, information, statistics etc... freely available to anybody who wants to tap into it. Most of it is hard to verify, hard to read and difficult to interpret.

What the masses therefore demand is that somebody makes sense of that data for them and explain what it means. "Yes, ok, trillions of dollars of new money is being printed in the US - but what does that mean for me in NZ?"

There's huge demand for media speculation and interpretation of raw data - whether it's relating to the economy, the political landscape, new emerging social trends etc... When we hear credible sounding people in the Media explaining it all to us in bite-sized chunks, we are comforted because we feel informed, knowledgable. Knowledge, as we all know, is power - therefore if we have a perception of feeling knowledgable, we get the warm fuzzy percepted glow of power. Feels good. We are therefore influenced by the Media in one way or another. We make a judgement based on what we read/hear - it's what people do.

There's nothing right or wrong about that, unless of course there is deliberate manipulation of news and reporting. We see this when we look at state controlled regimes, but also when we see items that are clearly being hyped purely because they're going to generate good ratings.

So has the recession been hyped/manipulated by the media? Was the boom time hyped/manipulated by the media? Possibly. Who knows?

Don't worry about it, is my view - just analyse as much information as you're comfortable with and make your decisions based on what you feel you understand. It doesn't hurt to be a little cynical of course, try and filter out what you consider to be hype and get on with life. It's all we can do!

Hmmm, does economist Gareth Kiernan

Hmmm, does economist Gareth Kiernan suggest we are a stupid nation or are we really s....d ?

Sure, there are plenty of

Sure, there are plenty of pundits jumping on the doomsday wagon, but why not temper that with the slurp that the MSM fed us about property over the boom? My bet is that the property hype would win hands down. It wasn't that long ago when we were fed sensational bylines such as "Auckland house prices rise $1000 per day" (and we all know how Fairfax's vested interest from real estate fist pumping). In all reality, I still think you have to search to read the Noubini's, the Faber's, the Schiff's, etc; specifically, they're not going to permeate the Herald in any depth or seriousness.

The suggestion that the media contributed to the global recession is pure nonsense. It might sit well among the inhabitants of the rock that is NZ, but globally the economic reality is very real indeed.

<i>People always blame the media

People always blame the media for being overly negative they never blame the media for over hyping the value of their asset.

And that's the rather obvious point that isn't addressed by Gareth Kiernan in this article. A biased article questioning the media for being biased?

Well said, Mozart. Only human

Well said, Mozart. Only human nature to talk up a boom and spread panic when things go into reverse. More and better data can only help, you'd think.

Maybe the disturbing thing is how little real progress has been made with the 'science' of economics in 100 years. Some very smart, highly qualified economists (Greenspan et al) have dropped us into one of the worst depressions ever, and even the Nobel Prize winners can't agree how to fix it.

"Household spending contracted 0.7% over

"Household spending contracted 0.7% over the 2008 calendar year, despite continued growth in aggregate incomes. In other words, household savings rates were improving."

Rather than saving the money, might not that spending contraction been households paying down debt? This, by some measures, could be seen as "savings" of course.

Bar the mad property market, to me it seemed things started to slide in late 2006, actually. Maybe media didn't make enough noise at the time?

The print/tv media in particular,

The print/tv media in particular, as it stuggles for readership and viewers, hype up the pain. Bad news sells.

Good comment about how the information age has affected it though, things happen so much quicker and get hyped up and down with a frenzy. Take Susan Boyle and swine flu for example. Another example was the leak of the stress reports on the US banks a month or so ago, the world markets tanked on rumour and froth.

With due respect to the editor of this site, when was the last time a good news story ended up on the top 10 at 10 for example?(Aside from Dilbert)

There is a blurred line these days in regards to independence of a lot of media, how much publicity will the herald give to plummeting house prices if one of their biggest revenue generator is real estate agents?

But the media just thrives on those two timeless human qualities, fear and greed.

Does anyone with a brain

Does anyone with a brain actually believe the mass media blindly? these days? (did they ever?)

ie there is the assumption that ppl are too stupid or too lazy to do the research just blindly believe the press....(god I hope not).

For myslef I dont normally read the main stream press, its too shallow, error prone, and/or not factual. Anybody who commits to a financial or indeed any important action without doing their research so they understand the subject/issue is just asking to get burned IMHO.

So with a knowledgable public, no the media could not talk us into a recession....and I dont believe they (substantially) did this time....personal experience (ppl around you being made redundant), increasing costs during shopping all point to problems that ppl who think for themselves should start to wonder about.

regards

JH: "When John Campbell did

JH:

"When John Campbell did an item on peak oil someone on Kiwiblog commented that his producer ought to be sent a letter."

What did they say? JC say? URLs?

regards

# Simo Vote: Add rating

# Simo Vote: Add rating 0 Subtract rating 0 Says:
July 16th, 2007 at 11:45 am

TV3 ran this story on Friday last with the usual falling icebergs, they need a phone call, the news editor needs a bullet, and John Campbell needs a decent set of heels to mimick the trash that eminates from his gob
http://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2007/07/peak_oil.html

"The culpability of the media

"The culpability of the media (if that is the right word) should be limited to instances of misrepresenting the facts, scaremongering, or, most likely, endless repetition of the same story wearing down people's optimistic resistance."

You have raised my hopes that there is hope after all! The relentless brainwashing that is spewed out day by day by the media scaremongering the populous with catastrophic warnings of the effects of our planet warming.

This leads me to believe that sanity will prevail! The uncertainty and fear will start to dissipate? Politicians will realise they have been hood winked!

Trouble is I doubt it.They are far too hungry for new taxes to fund their delusions and will continue on their unethical journey at ripping the populous off .

I think the thing is

I think the thing is that New Scientist, Scientific American, Nature et al are spewing it out.

You don't see statements like

You don't see statements like this as frontline news ,what you do see is shock horror and rebuttal.

Gareth Morgans says:
Ireland's economic miracle was driven by Germany. Under Labour, ours is being gifted by Communist China. The Germans sent money, the Chinese are sending people.

To the extent these trends are maintained it could take as few as 60 years before the population is effectively totally renewed. To the extent the sources of the greatest number of arrivals are now in Asia, Mr Peters is quite justified to point out that New Zealand is looking at a social and demographic revolution.

http://nbr.infometrics.co.nz/column.php?id=409

Yes, bad news sells!!

Yes, bad news sells!!

The media that is now

The media that is now majority owned by five multinational corporations, is responsible allright, responsible for normalising the debt based monetary system as generally accepted worldwide best practice, when its has been the common denominator in every human upheaval throughout history. Bring back cross media ownership laws.

Maybe this is a convenient

Maybe this is a convenient place to mention something I wrote last night.
I noticed the difference between the media reporting of US employment news, and what I'd just been reading.

So called 'experts' and professional economic commentators
http://www.neuralnetwriter.cylo42.com/node/1041

My verdict is damming of all the NZ sources I could find, including on this website unfortunately.
Maybe this website would gain even greater following if it reduced the fodder and increased the reporting from people like Mish.

My main interest these days is investigating the difference between mainstream media reporting and the facts, with the aim of finding reliable indicators of reality.

nothing is unbiased - it

nothing is unbiased - it is a human impossibility. Every person has their own beliefs

and humans create media. Humans

and humans create media.

Humans also create reality - by simply being.

However, humans cannot say what reality is - they can only give their perception of what reality is.

Media can influnence..but lets look

Media can influnence..but lets look back to the boom...
We had some doom and Gloomsters getting published...on the back page, in a mocking attitude, while the optimists still hit the front page...
yet things fell apart and the optimist blamed the D&Gs...
Even upto recent weeks the media continued to publish realisable hype and very little D&G ists
Sure a few bubbles that cant be established as anymore than that...so yes media can influence...BUT the overall trend on fundamentals continues on its track down.

Media influence can slow, or even suck ppl in who read the headlines and dont check the fundamentals and use basic common sense.
If the media is not doing their homework, promoting optimists when fundamentals are wrong, then the media is just not doing what they are meant to do...Accuratly inform.
Rather they take everything at face value, print who has the loudest voice and combine with what sells papers and increase ratings.